Ukraine: A Factor of European Cooperation or Discord?
„Europe is a state of mind." - Jacques Delors
Modern Ukraine is in some ways a mirror image of Europe from its dark history. It is vital to
keep this in mind to avoid reviving, in a broader sense, the past ominous spirits, but instead, to
draw on the positive lessons of modern West European experiences and thus contribute to the
stabilization and progress of Ukraine. To the point, we need to help Ukraine become a modern
Europe and not have Europe slide back into any shape or form of what is ailing Ukraine today.
1. Ukraine’s Profound Divisions
Ukraine is a deeply divided country. Its Western part is Greek Catholic (the unionists) while
the rest of the country is predominantly Orthodox. Russian is the prevailing language in the
South East, while Ukrainian is the dominant language in the North West. These two languages,
which derive from the same roots, also have widespread transitional forms like the surzhikа (a
blend of Ukrainian grammar and phonetics with Russian vocabulary). Various parts of today’s
Ukraine for centuries used to be parts of several competing powers (Russia, Poland, the
Habsburg Monarchy and Turkey) which produced complex civilizational consequences.
Furthermore, the imperial borders used to dynamically shift at the Ukrainian crossroads at the
behest of Big Interests.
All these are consequences of Ukraine’s historically-driven (geo) political heritage which in
turn are also the roots of its profound division today. Furthermore, to compound the above,
Ukraine also has a problem of the multi-layered national identity of a large part of its population.
It comes as no surprise that when a country’s ethnic tree branches out under conditions of
expressive (geo) political instability, the end results turn out to be highly fluid. Regardless of
all the wars they have endured over history, centuries-old, clearly defined national identities
have resulted in enduring nationally-defined entities on ethnical majority controlled regions like
Germany, Austria, The Netherlands and a large part of Switzerland
In regard to Ukraine, which gradually evolved geographically and asymmetrically from the
early medieval pan-Russian context – whose today’s borders were carved up by a voluntary
decision of the Bolshevik leadership after the October Revolution - this did not happen nor it
was realistically possible. Some Ukrainians today regard themselves as Russians in a broader
sense, while others define their identity on profound alienation to everything Russian. This fact
is perhaps the best illustration of just how deep the divisions in Ukraine go!
2. The Need to „Export“ Compromise and Tolerance
Completely different reasons, but with enormous explosive potential which peaked during the
two world wars, were why Western Europe was deeply divided for so long. Since it wasted an
enormous amount of its vital energy in the course of the 20th Century, Europe realized that in
order to simply survive as а rеlеvаnt world player it must come up with a model for
reconciliation and long-term (West) European cooperation. This led to the European
integration. Although the process started off with economic cooperation, the model
quintessentially also had a political and peace-making and peace-keeping dimension. Interests
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may have been the corner stone for the acceptance of the positive European values which,
barring hypocritical idealization and denial of many currently still negative trends, have
outgrown in many fields the initial basic interests themselves.
Over the past centuries, many have dreamed of European unity, but desired to achieve it by the
way of unilateral domination. That road lead to conflicts. The journey towards a better Europe
started only when reason prevailed that the road to that goal is paved with compromise, respect
for the interests of others, tolerance and dialogue. Understood in this spirit as the only possible
way forward, European integration does not presuppose abandoning own sovereign interests
but instead striving to satisfy them in symbiosis with the interests of others.
Expanding such conceptual Europe had implied and still does the expansion of the contents of
the “compromise package”. This is vital to accept when dealing with Ukraine. In order to
disseminate this mind-set which is the corner-stone for reconciliation in the West, it is vital
herein to respect the interest of others, just as the other side must do the same. Without this,
there will be no solution to the Ukraine problem, but there will be fresh problems for Europe.
3. Ukraine Geopolitical Crossroads
Ukraine is geopolitically and historically of enormous importance to Russia. For the same
reasons it is also very important to EU’s Eastern members – Poland and Lithuania. It is also
without any doubt that strategic interests of USA and of some other globally relevant centers
of power overlap in Ukraine. If Ukraine’s internal reasons are also added to the equation, then
all this conundrum makes that country perhaps the biggest European “powder keg”.
In order to defuse the keg from exploding sooner or later with a regional and possibly a broader
fallout, it is vitally important to change the optics used to analyze the country. Along these lines
we must regard Ukraine as a bridge between the Europe’s East and West and act accordingly.
This would best alleviate, if not even eliminate Ukraine’s contradictions and prevent the
generation of new or exacerbating of the old tensions on our continent.
West of Ukraine, lies the now mature and consolidated European Union, internal problems
notwithstanding, which naturally strives to entrench its boundaries in the Western Balkans and
possibly shift them towards the East. To its East (Russia) and to its North (Bеlоrussiа),
increasingly intensive integrations are in motion aimed at creating the Eurasian Union (ЕАU)
across a significant part of the post-Soviet territory. Ukrаine is today painfully divided and out
of synch between the two entities, instead of being a majestic bridge productively connecting
the two.
4. Division or Connection through Rejection of Unilateralism
Polls show that the people of Ukraine are divided into two almost equal parts, one of which
looks with longing to the East and the other to the West. This matrix is reflected in the election
processes whose results provide for the customarily instable government. Whatever a given
government does, one can count on a large chunk of the population being not only unhappy but
going into a combat mode.
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Hence, as long as one continues to seek one-sided solutions in Ukraine, there will be no
sustainable outcomes. Instead, there will be alarming situations, followed by temporary
reprieve in tensions, in turn followed by fresh crises - a perpetual vicious circle. The movement
of the pendulum to one side is inevitably accompanied by virulent (counter) reaction on the
other. The government that steered the Ukraine ship to the west (2005-2010) faced powerful
resistance and imploded. The current government, indisputably pro-Russian, is facing similar
protests. Probably its fate will not be brilliant either. So this could perpetuate itself to eternity,
unless a completely new approach is found. Paralyzed from within its core, Ukraine shall
continue rotting away while big (geo) political games are played within and around it. This is
catastrophic for the country and thereby very bad for Europe on the whole.
Therefore, one should seriously take into account Kiev’s proposal to define its relations with
the EU in a tripartite manner, to include Moscow in the process. Needless to say, this must not
be allowed to become a process in which any side is simply buying time, but instead be a
committed pursuit along a purposeful road to developing a new, profoundly connected Europe,
as Charles de Gaulle would say, from the Atlantic to the Urals. One another point must be well
understood: the aforesaid or any other initiative is not a Holy Writ. There might be an alternative
way to proceed towards fruitful negotiations, but the all-important principle therein is to respect
the interests both the EU and its relevant members on one side and Russia on the other and
above all, never neglecting, but instead all the while prioritizing Ukraine’s.
Such a solution, not merely attractive on paper but sustainable in practice, is not easy to find
and implement. However, just the floating even a principled vision along the aforesaid lines by
respectable centers of influence would serve to start relaxing the tensions on the BrusselsMoscow fault line. Serbia’s case could serve as an inspirational example for seeking concrete
solutions to the Ukraine issue in the economic sphere, for starters, where these kind of solutions
are easiest to find.
Serbia is a member of the Central European Free Trade Agreement which is backed by the EU
on the grounds, inter alia, of the Stabilization and Association Agreement. Thanks to this, Serbia
is directly and closely economically linked to the EU, but also has a Free Trade Agreement with
Russia and other members of its customs union. A firmer, polycentric institutional framework
of a tripartite kind would yield the concretization of the initial (economic) phase of the building
of the Ukrainian bridge between the EU and the Russian integration zone. Once those economic
pylons are in place, the military and political aspects of the problem would be a much lesser
burden for the bridge to carry.
5. The Pan-European Concept
To reiterate - there is no sustainable solution to the Ukraine problem without taking into account
its internal and external divisions. Seeking of a solution for Ukraine can and must be a quest
for a model aspiring for geographic and quintessential development of European unity. The
Ukrainian crisis is a problem, but with a silver lining – it is also an opportunity for us to build
an even bigger, multidimensional European House!
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The EU and the seemingly imminent EAU could wallow in the state of perpetual rivalry, but
no side would reap too much benefit. The European Union needs not only energy and raw
materials from Russia and its satellites, it also needs their markets as well. In turn, the Eurasian
entity can hardly sustain itself deprived of all the necessities for further modernization, from
technology to socio-political standards of living, most of which are to be found in Western
Europe.
In brief – one and all in Europe would greatly profit from finding a working model for
cooperation from Portugal all the way to Russia’s Far East and post-Soviet Central Asia to
facilitate a smoother exchange and movement of people, goods and ideas… and Ukraine could
stand there as a unavoidable bridge, if it were for wisdom and pragmatism, or a towering,
unsurmountable obstacle if not. Therefore, we must use this opportunity presented by the
culminating Ukrainian crisis regarding its relationship with the EU to urgently seek solutions
to able the inclusion of that country into the increasing pan-European concept.
6. Instead of a Conclusion: Ukrainian Crisis as a Global Opportunity
It is more likely that Ukraine will break apart than become a symmetrical part of either the EU
of the Eurasian integration zone. Taking this as point of departure, then it must be made a factor
of European integration in a manner that will preserve its unity. This means a custom-made
way must be tailored to link it both with the EU and with Russia and the imminent EAU. If
there is a genuine goodwill, solutions will be found to consolidate Ukraine and shore up the
links between the European East and the European West.
This way we would get a multi-layered Europe and Eurasia from the Atlantic to Vladivostok.
Furthermore, via the ties the majority of EU member states maintain with USA we would
achieve a complex, asymmetrically multilayered Euro-Atlantic-Eurasian partnership. These are
sound foundations for promoting world relations, i.e., to build a “global village” as an oasis of
peace and cooperation instead of a theatre of war!
Obviously Ukraine is herein a vital link. Without exaggeration, long-range answers to global
problems depend how it is treated! It is truly important whether EU, as the most successful
project of pan-national cooperation with the implied responsibility to itself and others, will sup
bitter fruits from its so troubled past or draw wisdom from the foundations of the European
integrations – tolerance and compromise. Europe and our “global village” no longer need any
inflamed passions but instead require and desire easing of tensions!
Aleksandar Nikolić – Chairman of the Board of Governors of East West Bridge
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