Risk Mapping Bangladesh
Sector Disaster Risk Reduction & Emergency Aid
January 2012
Evelien Thieme Groen & Carolien Jacobs
Table of Contents
Fast Facts
3
MAJOR HAZARDS
Floods
Cyclones
Landslides
Earthquakes and tsunami
Climate change
3
3
3
4
4
4
VULNERABILITY
Indicators
4
4
CAPACITY
Government
Civil society
International
Cooperation
Local Cordaid partners
Caritas network
5
5
5
5
6
6
7
SYNTHESIS
7
Resources and contacts
8
Appendix: hazard map Bangladesh
2
People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Fast Facts1
Capital: Dhaka
Official language: Bengali
Population: 150 mln
Climate: Tropical, Oct-March: winter, March-
Population Density: 1074 people/sq.km
June: humid summer. Monsoons: June-Oct.
Administrative regions: 7 divisions, 64 districts
Pop. Affected by natural disasters
(zila), subdistricts (upazila or thana)
(average/year/mln people): 47 203
Major ethnic groups: 98% Bengali, 2% others (mostly
World Risk Index: 6
Biharis and indigenous tribal groups)
Cordaid sectors: DRR, H&W
Major religion: 89.7% Islam, 9.2% Hinduism, 0.7%
Buddhists, 0.3% Christians, 0.1% animists
Major hazards2
Floods
Bangladesh ranks first on the list of countries most at risk of flooding.3 Approximately 18% of Bangladesh’
territory consists of water.4 Hence, also a large part of Bangladesh consists of delta and is prone to
flooding. The Padma (or Ganges), Jamuna (or Brahmaputra) and Meghna are major rivers with many
tributaries, making their way through the country to mound in the Bay of Bengal. The Bangladesh National
Plan for Disaster Management 2008-2015 final draft distinguishes four different types of floods:
-
flash floods caused by overflowing of hilly rivers of eastern and northern Bangladesh (in AprilMay and Sept-Nov).
-
rain floods caused by drainage congestion and heavy rains
-
monsoon floods caused by major rivers usually in the monsoon (June-Sept.)
-
coastal floods caused by storm surges and tides.5
At times, up to 75% of the country is flooded. Between 1980 and 2010, 68 major floods have been reported
in Bangladesh. In the last decade, especially the floods of 2004 and 2007 have been severe. Floods affect
large numbers of people and cause huge economic damage. More than 12% of the population is exposed to
flooding, that is almost 20 million people.6 Regional water management is largely lacking. Upstream water
policy of neighbouring countries China, Nepal and India impacts on the rivers flowing into Bangladesh.
Cyclones
Just like floods, tropical storms occur especially during the monsoon season, with October being the peak
month. Especially devastating was the Bhola cyclone in 1970, which killed at least 300 000 people. 7
Between 1980 and 2010, 108 storms were reported, the ones of 1985, 1991 and 2007 being especially
strong. Most of them first, and most severely, hit the coast and then head land inwards. Whereas the
number of people affected is usually lower than in the case of floods, tropical storms more frequently
result in deaths, with an average of 1550 deaths per event.8
1
From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh, viewed on 18.10.2011.
See http://www.preventionweb.net/files/3759_ban.pdf: for a map of seismic, volcanic and tropical storm risk in Bangladesh (viewed on 18.10.2011).
Floods occur throughout the country.
3
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/risk.php?cid=14, on 19.10.2011.
4
www.ffwc.gov.bd, viewed on 19.10.2011.
5
Disaster Management Bureau, National Plan for Disaster Management, May 2008: 17.
6
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/?cid=14, on 19.10.2011.
7
http://www.emdat.be/result-country-profile, viewed on 7.11.2011.
2
3
Landslides
Landslides often result from rain. Especially when occurring in urban areas such as Chittagong they tend to
cause a lot of victims. Landslide risk is highest in the south east.9
Earthquakes and tsunami
Bangladesh is close to the plate margins of India and Eurasia.10 Based on a seismic zoning map, the
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology argues that 43% of the country is at high risk.11 Minor
earthquakes have occurred 7 times between 1980 and 2010. Due to the proximate fault lines it is feared
however that a major earthquake or tsunami can hit anytime.12 Earthquakes are likely to have most
serious consequences in the northeast of the country, whereas possible tsunamis obviously will hit hardest
along the coast. The densely populated city of Dhaka (over 10 million people) is also extremely vulnerable
to earthquakes as buildings are little resistant to earthquakes and space to escape is limited.13
Climate change
Climate change is a major threat for Bangladesh. According to the WorldBank, Bangladesh ranks first at
the list of increased risks of flooding, and second on the list of frequency and severity of storms in case
climate changes further. Monsoon rainfall will increase which will increase floods as well, the southern
delta will have more coastal flooding and saline intrusion, the drier northern and western parts might
suffer from more prolonged droughts.14
Vulnerability
Indicators15
Human Development Index (out of 187)
146
Adult literacy rate (% aged >15)
55.9
GDP per capita (USD)
1286
Mean years of schooling (of adults)
4.8
Living below 1,25 (USD) a day (% pop)
49.6
Gender inequality index
0,550
Life expectancy at birth (years)
68.9
Global hunger index (>20 alarming)
24.5
Infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births)
52
Corruption perceptions index (10 = clean)
2.7
Gini coefficient
31
Many of the disasters in Bangladesh strike large parts of the population. Poor people however often get
disproportionately struck, as they are living in poor conditions. Epidemics such as cholera, diarrhea, and
dengue often follow in the aftermath of natural disasters when people are living in poor hygienic
conditions. The poorest and most vulnerable people often live in the areas that are struck hardest, such as
river islands (chars) and the coastal zones.
Especially vulnerable groups in Bangladesh are ethnic minorities. Large parts of the Buddhist
population is concentrated in the southeast Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT), especially in the districts of
Bandarban, Rangamati and Khagrachari.16 The Rohingya people – (mostly) Muslim refugees from Burmaare another marginalized group living in the Chittagong, mainly in refugee camps.17 40% of the population
8
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/?cid=14, on 19.10.2011.
Global Risk Data Platform (2011). Bangladesh. http://preview.grid.unep.ch/index.php?preview=map&iso=BGD viewed on 12.01.2012.
For more detailed indications of the fault lines, see: Hossein Ali, 1998. Earthquake database and seismic zoning in Bangladesh. INCEDE Report 11.
11
http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=205535
12
http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?news_id=111693, viewed on 18.10.2011
13
Based on information provided by Marlou Geurts, 1.11.2011.
14
WorldBank, 2009. Convenient solutions to an inconvenient truth: Eco-system based approaches to climate change. Ali, A. 1996. Vulnerability of
Bangladesh to climate change and sea level rise through tropical cyclones and storm surges. Water, air and soil pollution, 92:171-179
15
From http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/profiles/BGD.html, viewed on 18.10.2011 and on 7.11.2011 and
http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ghi11.pdf and http://cpi.transparency.org/cpi2011/results/#CountryResults, viewed on
20.12.2011.
16
IRINNews, Ethnic minorities face higher school drop-out risk, http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid =94139, viewed on 7.11.2011.
17
Based on information provided by Marlou Geurts, 1.11.2011.
9
10
4
in the CHT live in extreme poverty (<1800 calories/day), whereas the other 60% lives below the national
absolute poverty line (<2100 calories/day).18
Capacity
Government
After cyclone Bhola in 1970 killed at least 300 000 people killed, awareness rose of the importance of
disaster preparedness. Since then, the government has made considerable efforts to invest in this. As a
result of better systems of warning and preparedness (cyclone shelters), numbers of affected people and
deaths as a result of cyclones and floods have gone down considerably. The 2007 Sidr cyclone however
showed that the number of cyclone shelters at present is by far not adequate.19 In 1993, the Government
of Bangladesh established a Disaster Management Bureau (DMB), falling under the Ministry of Food and
Disaster Management. The DMB defines itself as the:
technical arm to the Disaster Management and Relief Division (DMRD) to overview and co-ordinate
all activities related to disaster management from national down to the grass-root level. [….]
working in close collaboration with District and Upazila-level authorities and the concerned line
ministries under the overall authority of high–level inter-ministerial Disaster Management
Coordination Committee (IMDMCC).20
The disaster management committee system ranges from the National Disaster Council through to the
lowest level of Union.21 The Government of Bangladesh has committed itself to following the Hyogo
Framework for Action (HFA). In line with this, it has developed national adaptation programmes for action
(NAPAs). Programmes however, do not always siphon through to the lowest level of implementation as
decentralisation activities, a shift in focus from relief to DRR and budget allocation to DRR need to be
improved.
Civil society
Although Bangladesh has many civil society organisations, its structure and effectiveness is not always
optimal, nor is cooperation. Indicatively is the title of a comprehensive study on Bangladesh by Tasnim
(2007): ‘Civil Society in Bangladesh: Vibrant but not Vigilant’.22 ‘Vibrant here refers to density,
collectiveness and activeness, while vigilant refers to the interactions of civil society with the state and
market and its participation in governance and strength to monitor state actions.’ (Tasnim 2007: iii).
International
The cluster approach towards disasters was introduced in Bangladesh in response to cyclone Sidr in 2007.
The United Nations Resident Coordinator (UNRC) established a UN/Donor Coordination Mechanisms.23 The
following structure was agreed upon between national authorities and the international humanitarian
community. This structure might be indicative for other disasters in the future:24
Cluster/sector
Early recovery (involving all sectors)
Food
Logistics
WASH
Emergency shelter
Health
Lead agency
UNDP
WFP
WFP
UNICEF
IFRC
WHO
18
IRINNews, Ethnic minorities face higher school drop-out risk, http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid =94139, viewed on 7.11.2011.
Based on information provided by Marlou Geurts, 1.11.2011.
From www.dmb.gov.bd
21
Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, 2008. Super Cyclone Sidr 2007: Impacts and strategies for interventions.
22
See for the full document (a doctoral dissertation): http://www.tulips.tsukuba.ac.jp/limedio/dlam/B27/B2782934/1.pdf, viewed on 24.10.2011.
23
Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, 2008. Super Cyclone Sidr 2007: Impacts and strategies for interventions.
19
20
5
Cooperation
All international NGOs have to register with the government’s NGO Affairs Bureau where financial sources
are controlled. The DER group is a sub-group of the Bangladesh Local Consultative Group (LCG) and
functions as a ‘key national forum bringing together government, NGOs, donors and UN Agencies
concerned with improving the effectiveness and efficiency of emergency response.’
25
Between NGOs
cooperation is often limited. Cordaid cooperation partners however are part of the CMDRR Forum
Bangladesh in which they regularly meet and exchange ideas.
Local Cordaid partners
Sector: DRR and Health & Well-being
Name and kind Geo location
of org.
Caritas
(almost) National
Bangladesh –
ER+ DRR + H&W
Core business
Strategy
turnover
staff
(1) Education (2) human
rights (3) health & wellbeing (4) ecological
sustainability (5) DRM &
DRR
Service delivery;
good experiences
in ER (special
expertise in
shelter, cyclone
shelters)
Capacity building,
lobby &
advocacy,
experiences in ER
(special expertise
in disaster
friendly water &
sanitation: in
cooperation with
DAM)
> 500,000
> 50 5,000!
> 500,000
10-50
Service delivery,
Capacity building,
lobby &
advocacy,
experiences in ER
Service delivery
experiences in
ER. Speicla
expertise in
logistics – use of
boats – hospital
boats
Service delivery;
some (smallscale)
experiences in ER
Service delivery;
some (smallscale)
experiences in ER
Service delivery;
some (smallscale)
experiences in ER
Service delivery
experiences in ER
> 500,000
> 50
100.000500.000
10-50
< 100,000
10-50
< 100,000
10-50
< 100,000
10-50
> 500,000
> 50
Concern
Universal
Bangladesh ER + DRR +
H&W
Chittagong,
Bhola, Kurigram,
Mymensingh, Coz
Bazaar, Dhaka &
surrounding areas
(DIPECHO Urban
DRR programme)
Dhaka Ahsania
Mission – ER +
DRR + H&W
(almost) National
Friendship
Bangladesh – ER
+ DRR + H&W
Nothern Chars,
Southern Delta
areas, Coastal
belt
Health, economic
development, WASH,
education, DRR, ER
INDAB – DRR +
H&W
Babuganj, Barisal
Social protection, DRR,
health, food security
PGUK – DRR +
H&W
Bakerganj, Barisal
& Kalapara,
Pathuakali
Social protection, DRR,
economic development
Fight for
Hunger (FFH) –
DRR + H&W
Sandwip Island
Social protection, DRR,
economic development,
health
VARD – DRR +
H&W
Sylhet
Health, DRR, livelihood,
economic development,
24
25
CUNB is nota n
implmenting
organisation, but works
with (7) local partners In
the field of basic health
care, education,
women’s rights, DRR and
Climate Change
Adaptation – DIPECHO
partner – wider network
of about 50 organisations
in Bangladesh (capacity
building DRR-CCA)
Non-formal education,
economic development,
Health & well-being,
environment, WASH
http://oneresponse.info/Coordination/ClusterApproach/Pages/Bangladesh%202007%20Cyclone%20Sidr.aspx,viewed on 19.10.2011.
http://www.lcgbangladesh.org/DERweb/about.php#history, viewed on 7.11.2011.
6
gender
Health, DRR, livelihood
POPI – H&W
Kishoriganj
PIDIM – DRR +
H&W
Sherpur
Social protection, DRR,
food security
RDRS – H&W
(also ER in past)
Rangpur
Health, DRR, livelihood
VERC – H&W
ADD – H&W
> 500,000
> 50
100,000500,000
10-50
> 500,000
> 50
100,000500,000
10-15
Chittagong, Cox’s
Bazaar
Dhaka
Reproductive Health
services
Consultancy
Capacity Building,
Lobby &
Advocacy. After
cyclone SIDR ADD
conducted on
study on
disability issues in
disasters
Service Delivery,
Capacity Building
Capacity Building
SRHR education
Capacity Building
200,000
25
ICDDRB – H&W
Moheshkali,
Cox’Bazaar,
Chittagong
Dhaka
Research
Capacity Building,
L&A
> 500,000
> 1000
HelpAge
National
> 100,000
~12
RHSTEP- H&W
NCB Health H&W
PHREB- H&W
ADD Bangladesh supports
95 DPO’s (Disabled
People’s Organisations) in
9 districts
Service delivery
experiences in ER
Service delivery;
some (smallscale)
experiences in ER
Service delivery,
capacity building,
experiences in ER
Social Protection
(elderly)/ DRR
> 500,000
> 100
100,000
5
Caritas network
Caritas Bangladesh has headquarters in Dhaka and different regional and district offices. A large number
of Caritas organisations support Caritas Bangladesh in different sectors. In the past it was planned, on a
small scale, to start a Caritas Bangladesh Working Group to increase coordination but it did not take
shape. It is a very large, well functioning organisation working all over the country accounting for more
than 5000 staff. There are no agreements made regarding emergency aid. After a major disaster Caritas
send out an appeal through CI. With smaller disasters they ask for support from their partners.
Synthesis
Bangladesh is extremely prone to natural hazards, especially flooding and cyclones. Climate change is
likely to worsen this in the future. The following points illustrate the main risks in this country based on
hazards, vulnerability (as population exposed) and history.
-
The most devastating hazards are floods and storms. The most hazardous period is from March to
November. 75% of the country can be flooded at times, 20 million people are exposed to it. In the past
floods and cyclones have affected over 10 million people at once.
-
Another possible scenario is the occurrence of a large earthquake in densely populated metropolitan
areas such as Dhaka. With a total population of 16 millions people, we can imagine tens of millions to
be affected, severely injured or killed. The economic damage for the economic centre of Bangladesh
would be incomparable.
7
Resources and contacts
- Disaster Management Bureau: www.dmb.gov.bd
- Flood forecasting and warning centre: www.ffwc.gov.bd
- Bangladesh natural hazard risks map: http://www.preventionweb.net/files/3759_ban.pdf
- http://www.lcgbangladesh.org/DERweb/index.php
- Ahsan Zakir, (director general Disaster Management Bureau). e-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
- Abdul Hamid, Concern Universal Bangladesh (CUB). Tel.: 880-2-8855296, e-mail: [email protected]
- Caritas Bangladesh : www.caritasbd.org, e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
- Shafiqul Islam, chair person CMDRR, Dhaka Ahsania Mission
- Marlou Geurts (PO DRR, Cordaid HQ). Tel. +31 7031 8273, e-mail: [email protected].
8