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Red States, Blue States
Despite divisions, pollster says most Americans agree on some issues
By Laurie Clewett
“Let us, then, fellow citizens, unite with one heart and one mind. Let us
restore to social intercourse that harmony and affection without which
liberty and even life itself are but dreary things. … We are all republicans—
we are all federalists.”
—Thomas Jefferson, Inaugural Address of 1801
W
hen it comes to tracking
and predicting presidential
elections, few people’s
insights are more sought
after than those of John
Zogby. An internationally
renowned pollster, Zogby
is best known for accurately predicting the results of the 1996 election between
Bob Dole and Bill Clinton within less than 1 percent
of the actual outcome.
“I’m always asked by the press, ‘Have you ever
seen anything like this before?’” he said. This year,
the answer is no.
“I’m calling this year the Armageddon Election,”
Zogby told a gathering of state officials in June. “We
are not two candidates or two political parties, but
two distinct, warring nations going into this election.”
A Nation Divided
In remarks before The Council of State Governments’ 2004 Toll Fellows, a group of 40 distinguished
leaders from around the country, Zogby said that
many of the so-called “red states” and “blue states”
are actually highly competitive. But he said comparing those states George Bush won in 2000 to those
states Al Gore won—regardless of by how much—
reveals some telling differences.
18 state news
october 2004
For example, a Zogby International poll conducted
last December found that 54 percent of likely voters
in red states said they attend a place of worship at
least once a week, compared to 32 percent in blue
states. Similarly, 75 percent of those in red states said
they want the nation’s leader to have a relationship
with God and to be a spiritual person, compared to 51
percent in blue states.
“Carrying religion one step forward, a majority in
the red states told us that they define that relationship in
morally absolute terms—good versus evil, black versus
white,” the pollster said. “On the other hand, the majority in the blue states told us that they identify that relationship with God … as ‘live and let live.’”
Sixty-one percent of red-state voters had a gun,
compared to only 36 percent of those in blue states.
And those in Democratic-leaning states were nine
points more likely to be single and never married
than those in Republican-leaning states. This year,
poll-watchers should not focus on the gender gap
between men and women. “Look at the married versus single gap,” he advised, “and you have two completely different worlds.” Married voters tend to be
more conservative and Republican, while single people who have never been married are overwhelmingly
liberal. Zogby said the two groups are as much
as 25 to 30 points apart in how they respond on
some issues.
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“Each side said that if the other guy won, it would
be the end of the world as we knew it, the end of the
Republic.We could not survive.”
—John Zogby
Overall, he stressed, the numbers point to a nation divided.
“Demographically, ideologically, spiritually, partisanly—that is
two separate and distinct nations.”
And voters aren’t just divided over the candidates; they’re split
on the issues. “The bottom line,” he said, “is whenever you see who’s
ahead, who’s not ahead and so on in the horse race Bush versus
Kerry, you can just eliminate Bush versus Kerry. Replace it with
Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. You’re still going to get 47 to 46,
45 to 44, 48 to 46—whatever—because the nation is tied.”
Historical Precedent
Although the pollster has never personally witnessed anything like the divided nature of this year’s campaign, he said it’s
not unprecedented. A former history teacher, Zogby says the
parallel to this election is the election of 1800.
That year saw a bitterly divisive race between John Adams, the
sitting president, and Thomas Jefferson. Adams, a Federalist,
advocated a strong central government and a strong central economy for the new nation. Jefferson and his Democratic-Republican
followers, on the other hand, vigorously opposed a strong central
government and favored states’ rights.
“Each side said that if the other guy won, it would be the end
of the world as we knew it, the end of the Republic. We could
not survive,” Zogby remarked.
President George W. Bush discussed his proposed budget of $3.5
billion for state and local governments to enhance homeland
security issues at the Georgia Institute of Technology in March
2002. Photo courtesy of the Georgia Institute of Technology.
The election resulted in a tie—not between Adams and
Jefferson, but between Jefferson and his running mate, Aaron
Burr. At the time, the Constitution stated that whoever won the
most votes would become president, while whoever won the
second most would become vice president. When Jefferson and
Burr tied with 73 electoral votes each, the election was ultimately decided in Jefferson’s favor by the Federalist-controlled
House of Representatives.
Upon taking office, Jefferson gave what Zogby called “one
of the great inaugural addresses of all times.” He paraphrased
Jefferson’s message as follows: ‘We are all Federalists; we are
all Democratic-Republicans. It’s time to heal this nation if we
want to survive.”
John Kerry talks about new jobs at Central Piedmont Community
College in Charlotte, North Carolina. Photograph courtesy of KerryEdwards 2004 from Sharon Farmer.
Developing a National Unity Agenda
And that’s exactly what Zogby advises the next president to
do once the partisan campaigning is over, if he wants to get anything done. “The next president of the United States is going to
have to deliver a ‘we are all Americans’ speech. And while he is
at it, he’s also going to have to look to the rest of the world and
say ‘we are citizens of the planet.’”
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Red States, Blue States
Continued from page 19
Zogby said that the level of partisanship in the nation has
intensified in recent years. He said politicians of different parties used to socialize with each other and treat each other with
respect; even though they disagreed on some issues, most were
willing to work toward common goals. Now, he said, they often
don’t even say hello in the hallways, and cooperation is becoming “a rare animal.”
“And the saddest of all things is that now the nation has
caught up with the beltway,” he lamented. “Seven percent
according to the last Census survey now choose their home on
the basis of living near people who agree with them on issues.
That’s got to stop. And it stops with leadership.”
Despite the increased partisanship, Zogby said his polls show
there are “consensus issues” upon which most Americans agree,
and which form the basis for what he calls a bipartisan “national
unity agenda.” “Number one is universal health care. … That is
a majority issue and is something that a compromise will need
to be worked out on.” Other consensus issues include education
and funding for college education; public diplomacy in the
international arena; and promoting scientific and biotech
research, including stem cell research.
State officials, he believes, can influence the mood in
Washington and among their constituents by reducing the level
of partisanship in state politics. “So much change historically
has come from the states, it’s percolated from the bottom up.
And so if you start seeing a reduction in the partisanship at the
state level which you’ll also see among the public at the state
level, it will rise up.”
—Laurie Clewett is the associate editor of State News.
Educating Immigrants and Their Children
Continued from page 17
While there is no consensus on teaching methods or how
long to pursue these methods, states have learned that it costs
more to educate non-English-speaking students than it does
English speakers. Recent estimates from the Center for Special
Education Finance suggest that expenditures on a child in an
ESL or bilingual education program are 1.1 to 1.2 times the
average expenditures on a student in a regular classroom.
In short, the number of immigrants and immigrants’ children
in American schools is on the rise. Because of education’s
importance in American society, educators and state policymakers will continue to explore ways to teach immigrants and
children of immigrants the skills they need to succeed socially
and economically.
For more information on education issues related to immigration, please visit www.csg.org (keyword: trends) to download
TrendsAlert: Immigration’s Impact on the American Education
System.
—Melissa Taylor Bell is the associate director of research at
The Council of State Governments.
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