Assault and batteries Protecting all aspects of the grid Stuart Solomon, Brian Walker and Utku Gulmeden It was closing in on the end of an ordinary day on December 23, at the Prykarpattyaoblenergo control center, the source of power for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians.1 And then things started going terribly wrong. One by one, substations were shut down by a shadow force that had commandeered the center’s systems. As operators watched helplessly, the cyberattack shut down the grid leaving 230 thousand residents without light or heat on one of the coldest, darkest days of the year. The plot line of a Tom Clancy novel became a reality: A major utility had been hacked. The motivation behind the Ukrainian hack is still under investigation. But what’s certain: The damage will be long-lasting. Although power was restored within hours, the control centers were still not fully operational for months. It’s chilling to note that the security of the Prykarpattyaoblenergo control center is considered comparable to the security in many utilities in developed countries.2 26% Making operations even more susceptible to cyberattacks is the use of batteries to bring enhanced reliability to the grid. But those same batteries introduce vulnerabilities that need to be addressed in seconds instead of days. The answer isn’t to forego the digital innovation enabled by batteries. The benefits to utilities are too great for that. But given the added vulnerability of grid batteries, leading utilities will be ones that act now to shore up security—gaining real-time insight into operations. Insight that helps them prevent or minimize cyberattacks. From disruption to destruction According to Accenture research, more than half (57 percent) of executives surveyed said their utilities organizations have experienced cyberattacks significant enough to test the resilience of their IT systems.3 Yet only 40 percent agree their cybersecurity strategies are robust. 2 | Assault and batteries: Protecting all aspects of the grids 26% Only 26 percent of utility executives have designed resilience parameters into their technology model. 5% A mere 5 percent have tested intentional failures or attacks on their system. 5% Perhaps some of this complacency comes from the fact that, to date, most hacking incidents have been merely disruptive in nature. Service is briefly suspended. Or non-critical equipment shuts down temporarily. But as the Ukraine case proves, cyberattacks have become more physically destructive to operations. And the critical functioning of entire substations can be sabotaged by a line of code. Utilities are similar to other industries when it comes to warding off cyber threats. In the Accenture research only 26 percent of Utilities have designed resilience parameters into their technology model.4 And globally, a mere 5 percent have tested intentional failures on their system. Utility executives must proactively design resilience parameters and test their systems so they are prepared when, not if, attacks happen. 60% 60% Triple “A” batteries Accenture analysis shows that, in the last five years, nearly 20% of new power generation in the US came from distributed energy resources (DER).5 Consider the solar panel market alone. In 2012 DER equaled less than $200 million, but by 2017, that number will shoot up to a staggering $19 billion.6 Fully 60 percent of utility executives anticipate applying energy storage solutions to integrate DER to serve as “shock absorbers” for the grid.7 That’s the good news. The bad news? With DER comes increased cybersecurity risks. Aggressive adversaries are continuously innovating and evolving—and uilities must similarly adapt and learn. From months to moments Accenture analysis indicates the “discover and cure” time for cyberattacks is roughly eight months: a lifetime when it comes to protecting assets that can be irreversibly damaged in the space of a few seconds. Now, with increasingly sophisticated and destructive cyber threats, utilities must react in seconds to protect the grid infrastructure from being physically damaged and maintain the lifeline that powers society and energizes the digital economy. 4 | Assault and batteries: Protecting all aspects of the grids 60 percent of utility executives anticipate applying energy storage solutions to integrate DER to serve as “shock absorbers” for the grid. Recently, one of the world’s largest energy companies was attacked by a virus. Thirty thousand of the company’s computers were infected with the virus that permanently deleted data from hard drives causing operational delays and other disruptions. Powering up With the advent of digital, industry players face a double edged sword. On one side, digital enables new business models featuring DER that stabilize the grid. On the other, such capabilities make the grid more vulnerable to attack. What can utilities do to protect all aspects of their operations? Adopt a two-pronged strategy: embracing digital capabilities and significantly enhancing cyber-security capabilities. Embrace digital. Utilities must embrace the realities of digital business models and core enabling technologies. As with every generation of disruptive technology, the temptation to avoid or delay adoption is seductive, but inevitably incorrect. Grid batteries provide rapid fine-tuning capabilities for the grid as well as increasingly cost-effective options for reducing overall generation costs. Ultimately, the utilities that proactively and aggressively embrace grid batteries will not only survive, but will thrive. Some real-world examples are already emerging: Duke8 is a leading player in the United States, supplying energy to more than 7.2 million customers. The company is moving from grid operator to become an intelligent grid operator using DER to enable the transformation. How? Through its program, the “Coalition of the Willing,” an initiative that gathers smart grid vendors to work on standardizing DER integration. It’s a new business model that could allow Duke to offer microgrids DER services. In parallel, the company is focused on cybersecurity and actively testing systems to improve recovery time should an attack occur.9 5 | Assault and batteries: Protecting all aspects of the grids As with every generation of disruptive technology, the temptation to avoid or delay adoption is seductive, but inevitably incorrect. Vandebron, a new entrant in a saturated market: The Netherlands. With an innovative business model that directly connects renewable supply to customers, Vandebron’s customers can go online and choose among different renewable energy providers. In-home batteries such as the Tesla Powerwall become an owner-controlled source of DER—dramatically expanding both the benefits and risks of battery supplies in the overall grid. Defend cyber. Utilities must develop sophisticated cyber defense capabilities. Moving beyond traditional risk mitigation protocols (like compliance with standards and basic “hygiene”). Well-defended utilities will adopt enhanced mitigation techniques including real-time defenses, industry-wide sharing, asset hardening, and aggressive testing. Addressing ever-evolving cyber threats from sophisticated aggressors is complex—even for the most advanced utilities. While some actions are suitable for individual utility adoption, others will require integration across the industry sector and regulatory collaboration. Two important considerations for advancing the collective utilities capabilities in cyber are: 1. A proactive sector-wide digital solution which includes “real-time” analytical models and pattern recognition. This helps utilities to assess threats against key information assets or physical infrastructure. When it comes to maintaining the security of their systems, cyber threats to physical assets can vary dramatically in impact from simple interruption to catastrophic damage. To gauge the value of real-time analytics, it is important for executives to understand their fleet of assets across the value chain—by capital category and risk—so they are able to make informed decisions about the impact of cyber intrusions. 6 | Assault and batteries: Protecting all aspects of the grids Addressing ever-evolving cyber threats from sophisticated aggressors is complex—even for the most advanced utilities. While some actions are suitable for individual utility adoption, others will require integration across the industry sector and regulatory collaboration. 2. Regulators also have an essential role to play. Successfully defending the grid will require close and continuous collaboration between regulators and the utility community. Two specific areas for immediate focus include cyber funding expediency and industry-wide cyber sharing. Funding Expediency: Cyber aggressors are tenacious and creative—not constrained by quarterly earnings and periodic regulatory rate cases. To keep pace with aggressors, utility leaders need confidence that they can continuously identify and include new defensive capabilities as they are available in the market and not be hampered by delays caused by uncertainty of recovery. Regulators should set the tone with utility executives that they “have their back” and enact accelerated and frequent transparency/recovery mechanisms. Cyber Sharing: Regulators should continue to encourage information sharing about cyber threats and indicators. This model is gaining popularity in both the US and Asia as traditional information sharing through Information Sharing and Analysis Centers (ISACs) is being enriched with advanced real-time sharing models. Real-time surveillance and protection by individual utilities is vital. And its power is magnified tremendously by the network effect of real-time sharing among advanced utilities. Such a model requires intimate collaboration and sharing by willing utilities—requiring commercial, financial, operational, and technical alignment. Collaboration can be dramatically accelerated by active leadership and orchestration by strong regulators. 7 | Assault and batteries: Protecting all aspects of the grids Energizing the future There’s no question that grid-scale batteries offer tremendous capabilities for stabilizing the grid, acting as shock absorbers and allowing real-time responsiveness for fine-tuning energy production. That’s the up side. The downside? Reacting to cyberattacks is anything but real time and hacks are moving from disruptive to destructive. Leading utilities will be those that simultaneously create security capabilities that defend against ever-changing threats while also creating new digitally-enabled business models with premium returns for shareholders. 8 | Assault and batteries: Protecting all aspects of the grids Join the conversation About Accenture @AccentureStrat @Accenture_Util Accenture-Strategy Accenture Utilities Brian Walker [email protected] Accenture is a leading global professional services company, providing a broad range of services and solutions in strategy, consulting, digital, technology and operations. Combining unmatched experience and specialized skills across more than 40 industries and all business functions—underpinned by the world’s largest delivery network—Accenture works at the intersection of business and technology to help clients improve their performance and create sustainable value for their stakeholders. With more than 375,000 people serving clients in more than 120 countries, Accenture drives innovation to improve the way the world works and lives. Visit us at www.accenture.com. Other contributors About Accenture Strategy Contact the Authors Stuart Solomon [email protected] Utku Gulmeden [email protected] Ana Paula Mundim [email protected] Notes 1 Wired, “Inside the Cunning, Unprecedented Hack of Ukraine’s Power Grid” http://www.wired.com/2016/03/inside-cunning-unprecedented-hack-ukraines-power-grid/. 2Ibid. 3 Accenture Strategy Research on the Intersection of Business and Technology, 2015. 4 Accenture Strategy Research on the Intersection of Business and Technology, 2015. 5 Accenture analysis, SEIA, GTM (http://www.greentechmedia.com/ articles/read/solar-accounted-for-64-of-new-electric-generatingcapacity-in-the-us-in-q1). Accenture Strategy operates at the intersection of business and technology. We bring together our capabilities in business, technology, operations and function strategy to help our clients envision and execute industry-specific strategies that support enterprise wide transformation. Our focus on issues related to digital disruption, competitiveness, global operating models, talent and leadership help drive both efficiencies and growth. For more information, follow @AccentureStrat or visit www.accenture.com/strategy. 6 http://energystorage.org/energy-storage/facts-figures. 7 Accenture’s Digitally Enabled Grid research program, Accenture, 2016. 8 Greentech Media, “Microgrids Drive Duke’s Coalition for Grid-Edge Interoperability” http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/ Microgrids-Drive-Dukes-Coalition-for-Grid-Edge-Interoperability. 9 Accenture interviews. Copyright © 2016 Accenture. All rights reserved. Accenture, its logo, and High Performance Delivered are trademarks of Accenture. 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