Australian sheep
Industry projections 2014
Australian sheep industry projections 2014
Authors: Tim McRae, Jonathan Meggison and Rebecca Matthews
For more information call MLA on 02 9463 9163
Published by Meat & Livestock Australia Ltd February 2014
©
Meat & Livestock Australia Ltd, 2014
ISSN 1329-2994
While endeavouring to ensure that the information contained in this publication
is correct, MLA makes no representation as to, and accepts no liability for, the
accuracy of such information including, but not limited to, the forecasts.
i
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
Contents
Introduction .............................................................................. 1
2013 – the key numbers ....................................................... 2
Overview of 2014 supply and demand projections ......... 3
Key assumptions ................................................................... 4
Situation and outlook 2014–2018 ........................................ 5
Australian sheep flock ........................................................... 6
MLA and AWI wool and sheepmeat survey ...................... 7
Lamb slaughter ...................................................................... 8
Mutton slaughter ................................................................... 9
Lamb and mutton production and carcase weights ..... 10
Sheep farm incomes ............................................................ 11
2014 demand outlook .................................................... 12-14
New Zealand ........................................................................ 15
Australian market ................................................................. 16
Australian market ...................................................................................................... 17
Australian economy ................................................................................................. 17
Consumer trends ..................................................................................................... 17
Retail prices ............................................................................................................... 18
Retail value and volume trends .............................................................................. 18
Foodservice trends .................................................................................................. 19
Middle East .................................................................... 20-22
United States ................................................................. 23-24
China ............................................................................... 25-27
European Union ................................................................... 28
Japan ..................................................................................... 29
Hong Kong and Taiwan ...................................................... 30
South East Asia .................................................................... 31
Other ...................................................................................... 32
Papua New Guinea .................................................................................................. 32
South Africa ............................................................................................................... 32
Russia ......................................................................................................................... 32
Korea .......................................................................................................................... 32
Offal ........................................................................................ 33
Live exports – summary ..................................................... 34
Live exports – markets ........................................................ 35
Statistical appendices ......................................................... 36
Appendix 1 – Mutton 20x10 ............................................................................. 37-38
Appendix 2 – Lamb 20x10 .............................................................................. 39-40
Appendix 3 – Live sheep exports .......................................................................... 41
Sources and acknowledgements .................................... 42
Acronyms .............................................................................. 43
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
ii
Contents
List of Figures
Figure 1 Australian rainfall 1 Jan 2013 to 31 Dec 2013 ................................................ 4
Figure 2 Australian rainfall outlook – February to April 2014 ...................................... 4
Figure 3 A$ against US$ .................................................................................................. 4
Figure 4 Australian sheep flock ...................................................................................... 6
Figure 5 Australian sheep flock by state ...................................................................... 6
Figure 6 Ewe flock size intentions ................................................................................. 7
Figure 7 Lambs on hand and expected lamb sales – Australia ................................ 7
Figure 8 Marking rates – Australia ................................................................................. 7
Figure 9 Australian lamb slaughter ................................................................................ 8
Figure 10 Monthly Australian lamb slaughter ............................................................... 8
Figure 11 Quarterly lamb slaughter and saleyard prices ............................................ 8
Figure 12 Australian sheep slaughter ............................................................................ 9
Figure 13 Australian monthly sheep slaughter ............................................................ 9
Figure 14 Quarterly sheep slaughter and saleyard prices ......................................... 9
Figure 15 Australian lamb production ......................................................................... 10
Figure 16 Mutton production and carcase weight ................................................... 10
Figure 17 Australian slaughter lamb farm income ...................................................... 11
Figure 18 Australian lamb exports ............................................................................... 12
Figure 19 NZ lamb exports ............................................................................................ 15
Figure 20 Sheepmeat export volume Aus v NZ ....................................................... 15
Figure 21 Domestic lamb utilisation ............................................................................. 17
Figure 22 Mutton exports and domestic utilisation .................................................. 17
Figure 23 Australian retail meat prices ....................................................................... 18
Figure 24 Restaurants, cafes and takeaway turnover cycle .................................. 19
Figure 25 Australian retail fresh meat shares ............................................................ 19
Figure 26 Lamb exports to the Middle East .............................................................. 21
Figure 27 Lamb exports to the Middle East – by market ........................................ 21
Figure 28 Lamb exports to the Middle East by cut – 2013 ..................................... 21
Figure 29 Mutton exports to the Middle East .......................................................... 22
Figure 30 Mutton exports to the Middle East – by market .................................... 22
Figure 31 Mutton exports to the Middle East by cut – 2013 .................................. 22
Figure 32 Lamb exports to the US ............................................................................. 24
Figure 33 Lamb exports to the US by cut – 2013 .................................................... 24
Figure 34 Mutton exports to the US .......................................................................... 24
Figure 35 Lamb exports to China ............................................................................... 26
Figure 36 Lamb exports to China by cut – 2013 ...................................................... 26
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MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
Figure 37 Mutton exports to China ............................................................................. 27
Figure 38 Mutton exports to China by cut – 2013 .................................................... 27
Figure 39 Lamb exports to EU .................................................................................... 28
Figure 40 Lamb exports to EU by cut – 2013 ........................................................... 28
Figure 41 Mutton exports to EU .................................................................................. 28
Figure 42 Lamb exports to Japan .............................................................................. 29
Figure 43 Lamb exports to Japan by cut – 2013 ..................................................... 29
Figure 44 Mutton exports to Japan ........................................................................... 29
Figure 45 Lamb exports to Greater China ................................................................ 30
Figure 46 Mutton exports to Greater China ............................................................. 30
Figure 47 Lamb exports to SEA ................................................................................... 31
Figure 48 Mutton exports to SEA ................................................................................ 31
Figure 49 Lamb exports to other markets ............................................................... 32
Figure 50 Mutton exports to other markets ............................................................. 32
Figure 51 Lamb exports to Africa and the Pacific ................................................... 32
Figure 52 Australian Offal Exports .............................................................................. 33
Figure 53 Australian sheep offal by cut – 2013 ........................................................ 33
Figure 54 Australian live sheep exports .................................................................... 34
Figure 55 Australian live sheep exports by destination .......................................... 35
Figure 56 Live sheep exports by destination ........................................................... 35
List of Tables
Table 1
Table 2
Table 3
Table 4
Table 5
Table 6
Table 7
Situation and outlook for the Australian sheepmeat industry ................. 5
Australian exports of lamb ........................................................................... 13
Australian exports of mutton ....................................................................... 13
Australian live sheep exports (head).......................................................... 34
Australian mutton exports to top 20 destinations and major
regions by the 10 main cuts ................................................................. 37-38
Australian mutton exports to top 20 destinations and major
regions by the 10 main cuts ................................................................. 39-40
Calander year live sheep exports ............................................................... 41
Introduction
2014 shapes as a very interesting year for the Australian lamb
industry, as the medium-term prospects for increased supplies
hinge firmly upon seasonal conditions, while in contrast, the
export potential for the industry is extremely robust.
In conclusion, demand prospects for the Australian lamb industry look very positive for
2014, underpinned by a global market looking for additional supplies, combined with a
lower A$ and reduced competition from NZ. This, together with a fall in Australian supplies,
should have a positive impact on prices, provided seasonal conditions improve and enable
Australian producers to finish lambs to meet market requirements.
After a record supply and export year in 2013, overall production volumes are expected
to drop back in 2014. However, export markets will continue to increase their share of
production – maintaining the long-term trend and underpinning an expected price rise.
While drought and a scorching summer across most key lamb producing regions of
Australia will be felt on supplies throughout the first half of 2014, the impact of
seasonal conditions upon lambing rates in the year ahead will be crucial. With the
Australian flock expected to feel the impact of the record lamb slaughter and surge in
Meat & Livestock Australia’s
Market Information
sheep slaughter in 2013, the overall supply of lamb is expected to tighten into the
second half of 2014 and through 2015.
So, while the supply prospects for Australian lamb over the medium-term will depend,
in part, on seasonal conditions throughout 2014, the demand for lamb in overseas
markets looks very clear. With the A$ assumed to trade lower throughout the year,
decreased supplies out of NZ and expanding demand from major markets, Australian
lamb and mutton will be in strong demand. The combination of China, the Middle East
and the US will continue to take the majority of Australian shipments throughout 2014.
As a result, the domestic market (still Australia’s largest single lamb market) could feel
a greater impact on supplies and retail prices if either supply tightens more than
expected throughout 2014, or indeed, export conditions strengthen even further.
While the number of live sheep exported for 2014 is expected to increase, this is
largely dependent upon further market access improvements, especially into the
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Middle East, while the supply of suitable stock (given the lower flock) will remain tight.
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
1
2013 – the key numbers
 Australian lamb slaughter in 2013 is estimated at 21.9
million head – the highest on record.
 Australian mutton slaughter for 2013 is estimated at
9.5 million head – the highest since 2008.
 The national sheep flock at 30 June 2013 is estimated to be
74.2 million head, back 500,000 head, or 0.7%, year-onyear.
 Total lamb production in 2013 reached an estimated
460,000 tonnes cwt, up 3.3% – the highest production year
on record.
 Drought-induced adult sheep slaughter caused mutton
production to increase 53.1% year-on-year, to an estimated
214,000 tonnes cwt – the highest since 2008.
 Live sheep exports are estimated to have declined 17.5% in
2013, to 1.88 million head – the smallest yearly volume on
record.
 Lamb exports smashed the previous record and hit 214,000
tonnes swt – dominated by the US, China and the Middle
East.
 Mutton exports reached 172,000 tonnes swt, up 61.2% yearon-year and the highest volume since 2001.
 The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator averaged 423¢/kg
cwt for 2013, up 1.4% year-on-year.
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MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
Australian lamb prices
800
A¢/kg cwt
Restocker saleyard
Trade saleyard
Heavy trade OTH
600
400
200
0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Source: MLA's NLRS
Weighted average saleyard lamb price
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
A¢/kg cwt
Nominal
Indexed
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
Source: MLA's NLRS, ABARES
Australian sheep prices
500
A¢/kg cwt
sheep saleyard
400
sheep OTH
300
200
100
0
02
03
04
Source: MLA's NLRS
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Overview of 2014 supply and demand
projections
 Australian lamb slaughter forecast to decrease 4.3% in 2014, to 20.95 million head
 Australian sheep slaughter to contract 36%, to 6.1 million head
 The Australian sheep flock to fall 3% in the year to 30 June, 2014, to an estimated
72 million head
 Australian live sheep exports in 2014 are forecast to increase 22.3%, to 2.3 million
head*
 Australian lamb utilisation to decline 8.3% in 2014, to 193,000 tonnes cwt
 Lamb exports to maintain long-term trend of making up a greater proportion of
annual production – forecast to hit 56.1%
 Lamb exports to reach 211,000 tonnes swt in 2014
 Lamb exports to the US, China and the Middle East are all expected to increase in
2014, making up 69% of total exports
 Mutton exports to be constrained by lower production, forecast to reach
110,000 tonnes swt in 2014 – dominated by China and the Middle East
*based on assumption of markets reopening to Australian sheep.
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
3
Key assumptions


As part of MLA’s bi-annual Sheep and Lamb Industry Projections, a series of “key

The latest three month rainfall outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology indicates
assumptions” need to be outlined. While many of these assumptions are outside
that conditions for February – April will be largely neutral. This outlook comes after
the immediate expertise of MLA, they are key factors that must be considered in
a searing hot summer and very poor spring for central, western and northern NSW.
the delivery. Assumptions are compiled from a range of sources; each recognised
However, in contrast, southern regions of Victoria, SA, Tasmania and WA
experts in their respective area.
reportedly entered the summer months with an ample feed base for summer.
Seasonal conditions in 2014 to be ‘average’ (at best) to ‘below average’ across the

The A$ to average lower against the US dollar in 2014, trading between 84-90US¢.
majority of Australia’s sheep and lamb producing regions. The expanse of drought
After averaging 96US¢ in 2013 (down 7.6% year-on-year), the accepted trend for
conditions through 2013, especially for a large portion of NSW, will continue to
the A$ is to continue to weaken throughout 2014, assisted by improving economic
place a major influence upon the industry throughout the coming year, along with
conditions in several overseas markets.
the reported spectre of an increased chance of El Nino conditions (associated with
drier conditions in eastern Australia).

Overall global economic conditions to again improve in 2014, assisted by
continuing recoveries in the advanced economies of the US, Japan and EU, along
with the sustained performance in China and South East Asia.
Figure 1 Australian rainfall 1 Jan 2013 to 31 Dec 2013
Figure 2 Australian rainfall outlook - February to April 2014
Figure 3 A$ against US$
Chance of exceeding the median rainfall
Legend
Legend
Highest on record
Very much above average
Above average
Average
Below average
Very much below average
Lowest on record
Above 60% chance
55-60% chance
50-55% chance
45-50% chance
40-45% chance
Below 40% chance
1.2
A$/US$
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
00
01
Source: RBA
Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology
4
Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Situation and outlook 2014–2018
Table 1
Situation and outlook for the Australian sheepmeat industry
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
% change
2014 f
% change
2015 f
2016 f
2017 f
2018 f
% change
2018 f on 2013
Sheep & lamb numbers ('000 head)
at June 30
72,740
70,085
73,099
74,700
74,200
72,000
72,350
72,750
73,500
74,250
percentage change
-5.8%
-3.6%
4.3%
2.2%
-0.7%
-3.0%
0.5%
0.6%
1.0%
1.0%
0.1%
Slaughterings ('000 head)
sheep
9,411
6,159
4,933
6,063
9,537
57.3%
6,100
-36.0%
7,000
7,150
7,250
7,350
-22.9%
lamb
20,493
18,609
17,793
20,009
21,900
9.4%
20,950
-4.3%
20,000
20,200
20,300
20,500
-6.4%
sheep
21.2
22.6
23.2
23.1
22.4
-2.7%
22.5
0.3%
22.5
22.5
22.5
22.5
0.3%
lamb
20.7
21.6
22.1
22.2
21.0
-5.6%
21.0
0.0%
21.3
21.4
21.5
21.6
2.8%
Avg carcase weight (kg)
Production ('000 tonnes carcase weight)
mutton
200
139
114
140
214
53.1%
137
-35.9%
158
161
163
165
-22.7%
lamb
424
402
393
445
460
3.3%
440
-4.3%
426
432
436
443
-3.7%
3,568
2,969
2,458
2,279
1,880
-17.5%
2,300
22.3%
2,600
2,800
2,900
3,000
59.6%
Sheep exports ('000 head)
Exports ('000 tonnes)*
mutton
lamb
shipped weight
134
99
82
107
172
61.2%
110
-36.0%
126
128
130
132
-23.3%
carcase weight
171
126
108
134
206
53.5%
132
-35.9%
151
154
156
158
-23.1%
shipped weight
165
156
160
189
214
13.3%
211
-1.3%
205
211
215
219
2.5%
193
221
250
12.8%
247
-1.0%
241
248
253
257
3.0%
carcase weight
195
186
Domestic utilisation ('000 tonnes carcase weight)
mutton
29
13
6
6
8
43.1%
5
-33.9%
6
7
7
7
-12.2%
kg/capita
1.3
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.3
40.2%
0.2
-35.1%
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
-19.7%
lamb
225
215
200
224
210
-6.1%
193
-8.3%
185
184
184
185
-11.7%
kg/capita
10.3
9.7
9.0
9.9
9.1
-8.0%
8.2
-10.0%
7.7
7.5
7.4
7.3
-19.3%
Source: ABS, DA, MLA forecasts
* excl. canned/miscellaneous
f = forecast (in italics)
e = estimates
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
5
Australian sheep flock

As at June 2014, the Australian sheep flock is forecast to be around 72 million

head – a 3% decline from 12 months previous.

conception rates than the previous two years, with many ewes not reaching joining
condition. However, better conditions in southern regions of Australia, coupled
The most significant variable to underpin the estimated flock decline in 2013-14
with mild temperatures through autumn and winter, saw pastures and crops
was the large drought-induced sheep and lamb turnoff throughout 2013 –
perform much better than expected in 2013. Resulting from greater feed
especially in NSW. The 2013 calendar year saw the largest lamb slaughter on
availability, survival and spring marking rates were higher than expected, enabling
record combine with the largest sheep slaughter since 2008. However, the degree
ample lamb supplies for late 2013 and early 2014.
of the decline is expected to be somewhat softened by the turnoff of a large

number of older ewes retained over the past couple of seasons – which
contributed to the flock rise throughout 2011 and 2012.

Hot and dry conditions prior to 2013 joining reportedly resulted in lower
Producer flock intention information collected in the MLA and AWI wool and
sheepmeat survey (October 2010 to October 2013) clearly illustrate producer
intentions to increase flocks in 2010-11 and 2011-12. In contrast, the return to
Historically, the size of the Australian sheep flock has been very reactive to
drier conditions in mid-2012, across most sheep growing regions saw producer
seasonal conditions, with a clear trend of declining numbers in dry periods and
intentions change dramatically, with many producers intending to decrease flocks.
flock growth during wetter periods. After recording the lowest sheep population in
over a century in 2010 (70.1 million head), on the back of a lengthy dry spell since

Through to 2018, the sheep flock is forecast to increase gradually, based on the
2005, the Australian sheep flock grew to 74.7 million head, as at 30 June 2012,
assumption of "average" seasonal conditions from 2014 onwards. By June 2018
following back-to-back wet years in 2010 and 2011.
the Australian sheep flock is forecast to reach 74.25 million head, expanding each
year from a low of 72 million in 2014.
Figure 5
Figure 4 Australian sheep flock
200
million head
50
Australian sheep flock by state
million head
Queensland
NSW
Victoria
SA
WA
Tasmania
40
150
30
100
20
50
10
0
0
91
93
95
97
98
01
03
05
07
09
11
13e
15f
17f
96
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
6
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
As at 30 June, as at 31 March up until 1999
31 March until 1999, 30 June from 2000
e = estimate, f = forecast
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
Source: ABS
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
MLA and AWI wool and sheepmeat survey
Figure 6 Ewe flock size intentions
increase
Survey results
maintain
decrease
100%
80%
Surveys are performed tri-annually, in February, June and October and attract an average of
2,000 responses per survey.
60%
There is strong representation from all states and from both Merino and non-Merino flocks.
20%
40%
0%
Survey results highlight current flock numbers and future supply intentions.


The total number of lambs on hand, as at October

Oct-11
The total number of lambs marked in the four
months to October 2013 increased 6% on the same
corresponding period last year, underpinned by 7%
period last year, with the number of non-Merino
and 60% declines in the number of Merino and dual
lambs up 12% (marking rate 107%) and Merino
30
purpose breeds, respectively. Second cross and
lambs firm year-on-year (marking rate 87%).
25
shedding breeds performed well in 2013, slightly
Underpinning the increase was a rise in overall
offsetting the large decrease in Merinos and dual
joining and lambing rates in NSW and SA. However,
purpose breeds.
anecdotal evidence highlights a large variance in
5
marking rates between northern and southern
0
October 2013 (November to February) were
expected to decline, with both Merino and nonMerino sales down 3% year-on-year. Furthermore,

Jun-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
Oct-13
Figure 7 Lambs on hand and expected lamb
sales - Australia
2013 was 3%, or 1 million head lower than the
Intended lamb sales in the four months following
Feb 12
Source: MLA and AWI sheepmeat and wool surveys
Merino
First cross
Dual purpose
Shedding
Second cross, pure meat, other
Expected sales Merino
Expected sales all others
35
million head
% of lambs on hand expected to be sold
80
20
60
15
40
10
20
0
October
2011
February
2012
June
2012
October
2012
February
2013
regions of both states.
Source: MLA and AWI sheepmeat and wool surveys
On the back of 'above-average' rainfall in southern
Figure 8 Marking rates - Australia
regions of Australia throughout winter, ewe flock
100
30
June
2013
October
2013
marking %
million head
Ewes joined
Lambs marked
120
Marking rate (RHS)
anecdotal evidence suggested that the southern
intentions for 2014 were positive, with 30% of
25
100
Victoria and SA season was running four to six
producers intending to increase ewe flocks, 5%
20
80
weeks behind last year, and that heavy lambs were
higher than the same period last year. Furthermore,
15
60
likely be sold later, whereas in northern Victoria,
5% less producers are intending to decrease ewe
10
40
NSW and WA supply was expected to peak in
flocks in 2014, with around 55% looking to maintain
5
20
December and January.
current populations.
0
0
October
2011
February
2012
June
2012
October
2012
February
2013
June
2013
October
2013
Source: MLA and AWI sheepmeat and wool surveys
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
7
Lamb slaughter


Australian lamb slaughter for 2014 is forecast to

decline 4.3% year-on-year, to 20.95 million head, as
coupled with further deteriorating northern regions,
a return to dry conditions in the spring of 2013 will
will likely see the surge of lambs to slaughter
likely see the large turnoff of light weight lambs in
continue throughout the first quarter of 2014. The
the last quarter of 2013 continue into the first
ability of producers to finish lambs to heavier
quarter of 2014.
weights is expected to be varied across regions – a
year-on-year, and more than 3% higher than the

million head
25
20
15
10
5
months.
previous record set in 1972.
0
91
Considering the current seasonal conditions during
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13e
15f
17f
e = estimate, f = forecast
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
joining and the large estimated sheep and lamb
turnoff in 2013-14, it is forecast lamb supply will
Widespread rainfall, combined with mild
tighten significantly in 2015, on the back of a lower
temperatures in winter and spring in SA, southern
Victoria and WA, boosted lamb survival and marking
rates, with ample feed available. In contrast, NSW
and Queensland experienced an extremely dry
Figure 9 Australian lamb slaughter
reflection of the mixed rainfall during the past 12
Total lamb slaughter in 2013 is estimated to be the
highest on record, at 21.9 million head, up 9.4%

The onset of dry conditions in southern regions,

Figure 10 Monthly Australian lamb slaughter
breeding ewe flock and lower conception rates in
2200
2014.
2000
'000 head
2011
2012
2013
1800
Through to 2018, Australian lamb slaughter is
spring, seeing lambs offered at light weights in late
forecast to increase gradually, based on the
2013 and early 2014.
assumption of an improvement in marking rates
from 2015 onwards (albeit an improvement from an
expected low 2014) and the assumption of
"average" seasonal conditions. By 2018, lamb
1600
1400
1200
1000
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Source: ABS
slaughter is expected to climb back to 20.5 million
head – still 6.4% below the record 2013 levels.
Figure 11 Quarterly lamb slaughter and saleyard prices
7
million head
lamb slaughter
A¢/kg cwt
700
average trade lamb price
6
600
5
500
4
400
3
300
2
200
1
100
0
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts, MLA’s NLRS
8
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
e = estimate
Mutton slaughter

In the wake of an estimated 9.54 million head slaughter in 2013, the result of a drought-induced surge in mutton
turnoff levels and the largest adult sheep slaughter since 2008, Australian adult sheep slaughter for 2014 is
forecast to decline 36% year-on-year, to 6.10 million head.

Although the total adult sheep slaughter was up significantly in 2013, in relative terms, it is assumed that the
greater numbers turned off consisted of older ewes that were held back during the wet years from 2010 to 2012.
The return to dry conditions at the beginning of 2013 was the catalyst for producers to actively reduce the older
ewe flocks, as they retained younger breeding ewes built up through the previous wet years.

In the wake of a widespread winter break, a hot and dry spring and summer period, especially in NSW,
stimulated further sheep turnoff, with poor feed and water conditions in western and northern parts of the state
reducing the number of ewes expected to be joined in 2014.

Through to 2018, Australian adult sheep slaughter is forecast to increase gradually, in line with an increase in
lamb turnoff, based on the assumption of an improvement in marking rates from 2015 onwards, on the back of
an assumed return to "average" seasonal conditions.

By 2018, adult sheep slaughter is forecast to reach 7.35 million head, still 22.9% below the huge drought driven
2013 slaughter level.
Figure 12 Australian sheep slaughter
20
Figure 13 Australian monthly sheep slaughter
million head
1000
Figure 14 Quarterly sheep slaughter and
saleyard prices
'000 head
2011
2012
2013
5
800
15
million head
sheep slaughter
A¢/kg cwt
500
average sheep price
4
400
3
300
2
200
1
100
600
10
400
5
200
0
0
91
93
95
97
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13e
15f
17f
e = estimate, f = forecast
J
Source: ABS
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
0
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts, MLA’s NLRS
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
9
Lamb and mutton production and carcase weights

Australian lamb production is forecast to contract

4.3% in 2014, to around 440,000 tonnes cwt,

tonnes cwt in 2014, down 77,000 tonnes, or 33%
underpinned by a large reduction in slaughter, after
on an estimated 214,000 tonnes cwt in 2013 (the
record levels in 2013.
highest since 2008). Similar to lamb, the contraction
in Victoria and NSW, will likely see carcase weights
remain firm year-on-year, at 21.0kg/head cwt.
Disregarding the historically large average lamb

Figure 15 Australian lamb production
500
'000 tonnes cwt
production
kg/head
25
carcase weight
400
23
300
21
by a likely large reduction in slaughter, slightly offset
200
19
by an expected small increase in carcase weights.
100
17
of mutton production forecast for 2014 is supported
Growing demand for smaller cuts from international
markets, combined with widespread dry conditions

Likewise, mutton production is forecast at 137,000
Mutton carcase weights are forecast to average
0
15
91
22.5kg/head in 2014, up 0.1kg on 2013.
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13e 15f 17f
e = estimate, f = forecast
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
carcase weights recorded in 2011 and 2012, where
the wet years supported weight gains, the average
annual carcase weights beyond 2014 are forecast to
Figure 16 Mutton production and carcase weight
500
'000 tonnes cwt
production
continue the upward trend since 1986, on the back
kg/head
25
carcase weight
400
23
300
21
specialised meat breeds. This growth is forecast to
200
19
continue reaching 21.6kg/head in 2018, a 3%
100
17
of improvements in feed efficiency, husbandry
practices, genetics and the proliferation of
increase on 2013.

15
91
For 2013, Australian lamb production outstripped
the previous record in 2012 by 3.3%, or 15,000
tonnes, at an estimated 460,000 tonnes cwt. This
was the result of a sharp jump in slaughter, which
was lessened by lower than average carcase
weights – driven by drought conditions in NSW.
10
0
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
93
95
97
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13e 15f 17f
e = estimate, f = forecast
Sheep farm income


The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences
In contrast, crops were reportedly estimated to make up 54% of total cash
receipts of slaughter lamb producing businesses (650 ha sown to crop), at
producing farms. The full report can be found at: http : //www . daff.gov.au/
$303,000 per farm in 2012-13 – an increase of 5% on 2011-12. Along with lamb,
ABARES/pages/publications/display.aspx?url=http : //143.188.17.20/anrdl/
beef cattle and wool sales were also forecast to finish 2012-13 below 2011-12
DAFFService display.php?fid=pb_alfpfd9aabf00320130626_11a.xml
levels, at $52,000 per farm and $68,000 per farm, respectively.
According to 2012-13 results, average total farm cash income for slaughter lamb

However, the estimated tighter supply as 2014 progresses, on the back of poor
producing farms in 2012-13 was estimated to have declined by 19%, to $139,000
marking percentages in late 2013, will likely have a large impact on slaughter
per farm. Although down considerably on 2011-12, the result for 2012-13 is still
lamb farm incomes over the medium term.
estimated to be 13% above the 10-year average. The results clearly highlight the
impact of lower prices and tougher seasonal conditions during 2012-13.


(ABARES) reports annually on the financial performance of slaughter lamb

National average saleyard lamb prices for the first six months of the 2013-14
fiscal year were higher than the same period in 2012-13 across all categories,
For 2012-13, the increased number of lambs sold was more than offset by the
with the trade lamb indicator up 14% year-on-year, averaging 430¢/kg cwt. While
decrease in average lamb prices. The average slaughter lamb price was estimated
average lamb prices are anticipated to improve during 2014, the ability for lambs
to be 25% lower, on the back of increased supply at lighter finishing weights. As a
to meet market specifications, especially in NSW given the very dry conditions,
result, average receipts from lamb sales were estimated to have declined by 22%
will ultimately determine average farm incomes in 2013-14.
on the previous year, to $80,000 per farm. Lower prices also offset a larger number
of adult sheep sold in 2012-13, with adult sheep receipts per-farm averaging
$26,000 – down 34% on 2011-12.
Figure 17 Australian slaughter lamb farm income
$'000 (2012-13 dollars)
200
2012-13 Average Slaughter Lamb Farm Incomes
farm cash income
farm business profit
150
Small (200-500 head sold) – down 20%, to $85,000 per farm
100
50
Medium (500-1000 head sold) – down 25%, to $126,000 per farm
0
Large (1000-2000 head sold) – up 1%, to $230,000 per farm
-50
-100
90-91
92-93
Source: ABARES
94-95
96-97
98-99
00-01
02-03
financial year
04-05
06-07
08-09
10-11
12-13e
Very Large (more than 2000 head sold) – down 28%, to $338,000 per farm
e = estimate
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
11
2014 demand outlook

The 2014 demand outlook for Australian lamb industry looks bright – a combination of the lower A$, robust
demand from major markets and much tighter supplies out of New Zealand (Australia’s main competition in the


250
global sheepmeat trade)
200
After surging to a record calendar year volume in 2013, at 213,714 tonnes swt, total Australian lamb exports for
150
2014 are forecast to decline 1.5%, to 211,000 tonnes swt.
100
The 1.5% decline for 2014, however, is solely based upon the expectation of a decline in available supplies –
compared to the record production and slaughter volumes registered in 2013. However, as a percentage of
production, exports will increase to 56.1%, up from 38.5% a decade earlier.
12
Figure 18 Australian lamb exports
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
'000 tonnes swt
50
0
95
97
99
01
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
03
05
07
09
11
13
15f
17f
f = forecast
2014 lamb demand outlook
Table 2
Australian exports of lamb ('000 tonnes shipped weight)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
% change
2014 f
% change f
46.5
39.5
39.4
42.1
45.6
8%
48.5
6%
38.3
34.1
34.3
36.7
39.2
7%
42.0
7%
To:
North America
US
- Canada
5.1
3.7
3.9
4.7
5.6
19%
6.0
8%
- Mexico
3.1
1.8
1.2
0.8
0.8
6%
0.5
-40%
Middle East
35.9
36.7
34.9
51.8
59.8
15%
61.0
2%
Greater China
25.7
25.8
29.6
34.6
48.9
41%
51.0
4%
- China
13.9
15.7
21.2
29.5
39.5
34%
43.3
10%
- Hong Kong
10.4
8.1
6.2
3.5
7.5
116%
6.5
-14%
- Taiwan
1.4
2.0
2.1
1.6
1.8
14%
1.2
-35%
South East Asia
7.0
9.3
9.6
9.7
11.5
19%
10.0
-13%
Japan
8.3
7.7
7.4
7.7
7.7
0%
7.5
-3%
South Korea
1.2
2.1
2.7
3.0
3.2
6%
3.0
-6%
EU
13.7
12.0
13.0
12.1
11.7
-3%
12.0
2%
Other Europe
3.3
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.1
-13%
3.0
-3%
Pacific
11.2
9.5
10.9
14.0
13.3
-5%
8.0
-40%
South Africa
2.9
3.0
3.2
2.0
1.8
-9%
1.5
-15%
Other Africa/Mauritius
6.5
4.0
3.4
5.7
4.4
-23%
3.0
-31%
Other
2.8
2.3
2.6
2.4
2.8
15%
2.5
-11%
Total
165.0
155.5
160.0
188.6
213.7
13%
211
-1%
Source: DA, MLA forecasts
f = forecasts (indicated in italics)
Pacific = PNG, New Zealand & Pacific Islands
Other Europe = CIS, Eastern Europe and Western Europe other than EU
South East Asia = Indonesia, Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
13
2014 mutton demand outlook
Table 3
Australian exports of mutton ('000 tonnes shipped weight)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
% change
2014 f
% change
Middle East
51.9
42.9
39.5
46.7
40.9
-12%
34.1
-17%
Greater China
17.2
11.7
9.2
22.1
71.2
222%
51.0
-28%
8.5
6.7
5.1
16.4
57.9
254%
47.0
-19%
-85%
To:
- China
- Hong Kong
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.9
6.6
631%
1.0
- Taiwan
7.7
4.2
3.6
4.9
6.6
36%
3.0
-55%
14.6
12.6
9.1
11.8
22.2
89%
6.5
-71%
Japan
5.6
3.8
4.5
3.2
3.8
20%
3.0
-21%
South Korea
0.7
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
4%
1.0
-4%
17.9
11.7
6.1
8.1
12.2
51%
6.4
-48%
South East Asia
North America
10.8
8.7
4.5
7.5
8.7
17%
6.0
-31%
- Mexico
4.2
1.0
0.2
0.4
2.9
618%
0.2
-93%
- Other North America
3.0
2.0
1.3
1.3
0.6
-56%
0.2
-64%
EU
5.4
4.9
3.5
3.7
5.0
34%
3.3
-34%
Other Europe
5.5
4.5
3.2
4.5
4.7
4%
2.0
-57%
Pacific
5.5
1.6
2.0
1.0
2.5
153%
1.0
-60%
South Africa
4.4
1.6
1.9
1.3
1.2
-4%
0.3
-75%
Other Africa/Mauritius
4.2
2.2
1.6
1.6
4.8
192%
0.8
-83%
Other
1.0
0.5
0.6
1.8
2.6
46%
0.6
-77%
Total
134.0
99.1
82.2
106.7
172.0
61%
110.0
-36%
- US
Source: DA, MLA forecasts
Pacific = PNG, New Zealand & Pacific Islands
Other North America = Canada and the Caribbean
North Asia = Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong
Other Europe = CIS, Eastern Europe and Western Europe other than EU
South East Asia = Indonesia, Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam
14
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
f = forecasts (indicated in italics)
New Zealand



The New Zealand (NZ) sheepmeat industry is
Export lamb slaughter for 2013-14 (October to

Beef + Lamb NZ also reported that mutton slaughter
heavily dependent on export markets, with over
September) is forecast to decrease by nearly 11%
is estimated to fall nearly 6% year-on-year, to 3.9
90% of production exported each year. Since a
to 18.6 million head, the lowest lamb slaughter in
million head, after high export slaughter in 2012-13.
peak in the mid-1980’s, the NZ sheep flock has
decades, on the back of lower marking
Interestingly, this reflects unchanged sheep
been steadily declining, with numbers estimated to
percentages. However, solid rainfall and higher than
numbers rather than the rebuilding of the national
have been 30.94 million head as at 30 June 2013,
average temperatures throughout winter assisted
ewe flock, based on the relative profitability of
down around 1% year-on-year – the smallest in
pasture growth and supported post-marking
alternative agricultural enterprises competing for
recent history (Statistics NZ).
survival rates. Furthermore, good growing
land. At the mid exchange rate of US$ to NZ$ 0.79,
conditions and high feed availability are likely to see
the average annual mutton price is likely to increase
average carcase weights increase 2% in 2013-14,
9% year-on-year, to $67/head – driven by tighter
to 18.4kg, minimising the impact of a smaller lamb
supply in 2013-14.
According to Beef + Lamb NZ’s New Season
Outlook 2013-14, the spring 2013 lamb crop is
estimated to be down around 8%, or 2.1 million
head. This reflects the severity of the widespread
drought in summer and autumn 2012-13, which
resulted in fewer ewes joined, with a large portion of
crop. As a result, export lamb production is forecast

to decrease 9% year-on-year, to around 342,000
In 2013-14, total lamb exports are forecast to
decrease by around 9% on the previous year, to
tonnes cwt.
approximately 285,000 tonnes swt. Export receipts
hoggets not mated due to poor condition during the
under the mid exchange rate (1 NZ$=US$0.79) are
peak joining period in summer.
estimated to remain firm on 2012-13, at $2.56
billion, as a significant reduction in supply is offset
Key factors
by a forecast 10% improvement in export value.
around $8,000/tonne.
Drought conditions in 2012-13 have led
to the smallest lamb crop in almost 60
years.
Figure 19 NZ lamb exports
60
% change in exports 2013 v 2012
600
89,558
tonnes swt
40
20
Figure 20 Sheepmeat export volume Aus v NZ
307,918
tonnes swt
123,344
tonnes swt
18,181
tonnes swt
0
Forecast for tight supplies in 2013-14 to
see total exports back 9% year-on-year.
25,240
tonnes swt
-20
-40
total
Source: Beef + Lamb NZ
EU
China
Middle East
Shipments to the Middle East decline as
China and the EU continue to increase
demand.
US
figures represent 2013 total
Export receipts to remain firm in 201314, due to 10% growth in lamb export
value.
'000 tonnes cwe
Australia
New Zealand
550
500
450
400
350
300
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Source: FAO-OECD
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
15
Sheep flock
72 million head
Australia
(as at 30 June, 2014)
Annual lamb
consumption 2013
9.1kg/capita
Annual lamb
production 2013
460,000
tonnes cwt
16
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
 Australian domestic lamb
consumption to decrease 8.3%
year-on-year, to 193,000 tonnes cwt
 Export lamb to increase market
share of production to 56% due to
strong international demand
 Domestic food service growth to
remain firm
Australian market
Australian market
Australian economy
Consumer trends




Lamb consumed in the Australian market is
stable, and better placed than many other world
and volatile to the global economic environment,
193,000 tonnes cwt, following the 6.1% annual fall
economies, despite the economy growing below trend
changes in the level of mining investment and the
registered in 2013 (210,000 tonnes cwt).
in the past year.
political landscape.
Despite lamb’s niche position in the Australian

Inflation in Australia continues to remain relatively

On the whole, consumer confidence in 2013 was
market and consumer resilience in this segment of
low, with the consumer price index (CPI) only rising
above 2012 levels, and finished December on 116.3
the market in recent years, the major challenge for
2.4% on the June quarter 2012 and 2.2% on the
points, lower than the confidence registered
the Australian lamb market in 2014 and beyond is
September quarter 2012 (latest available).
between September and November by 4-5

forecast to take 56% of Australian lamb production

increasing pressure on key world lamb exporters
market.
Roy Morgan noted that consumer confidence ended
2013 on a low note, with unemployment rising.
104US¢ in April, and 105US¢ in January 2013.
middle income population, will continue to place
and lift the competition for lamb in the Australian

for the month as at January 2014), coming off
by a lower A$ and expanding global demand.
Increasing population growth, along with a growing
percentage points.
In the past year, (since January 2013), the A$ has
depreciated 14% and is currently at 89US¢ (average
in 2014 (this compares with 46% in 2010) – fuelled

Australian consumer confidence remains sensitive
expected to fall 8.3% year-on-year in 2014, to
the expected continued growth in export markets,

Australia’s economic health remains resilient and

Consumer confidence started 2014 on 116.4 points,
In 2014, the A$ (see page 4) is expected to trade
but remains lower than the 118.3 points registered
between 84-90US¢ – again providing a huge boost
the same week in 2013.
to export demand.

Australia’s population is currently expanding at an
annual rate of 1.8%.
These anticipated market trends will be further
exacerbated in 2014, as a result of the expected
4.3% fall in Australian lamb production.
Figure 22 Mutton exports and domestic utilisation
Figure 21 Domestic lamb utilisation
300
'000 tonnes cwt
400
'000 tonnes cwt
export
domestic utilisation
350
250
300
200
250
150
200
100
150
100
50
50
0
0
91
93
95
97
99
Source: ABS, ABARES, MLA forecasts
01
03
05
07
09
11
13e
15f
17f
e = estimate, f = forecast
95
97
99
01
Source: DA, ABS, MLA forecasts
03
05
07
09
11
13e
15f
17f
e = estimate, f = forecast
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
17
Australian market
Retail prices

Average retail lamb prices have retreated slightly since the June quarter 2012.
Lamb prices hit a high point in the June quarter 2011 at $14.99/kg. Following this
they started to fall, but also fluctuated, before a clear downward trend was noted
since June 2012, which continued into 2013.

This trend is not surprising given the lower livestock prices throughout the year, the
challenging consumer market and price competition among retailers in recent
years.

As a result, retail lamb prices averaged $12.54/kg in the first three quarters of
2013, much lower than prices over the same period in 2012 ($14.20/kg) and 2011
($14.73/kg).
Retail value and volume trends

In line with the falling prices, over the calendar year to November, AC Nielsen
Homescan data suggests that the total fresh lamb retail value edged up 0.5%
compared with the same period in 2012, while total volumes increased 7.1%. As
lamb is considered to be more of a luxury item, the fall in prices throughout the
year has meant that more consumers were able to purchase more of the product.
Figure 23 Australian retail meat prices*
1800
A¢/kg retail weight
beef
lamb
chicken
pork
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
2000
Source: ABS
18
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
* = subject to revision
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
Australian market

Foodservice trends




Factors generally contributing to the weaker
among foodservice operators (based on a 100 point
Foodservice growth in the Australian market is
uncertainty in the Australian and global economy,
score) in October improved on June estimates for
expected to remain flat in 2014.
particularly the political uncertainty prior to the
restaurants, hotels/motels, clubs/pubs, and quick
BIS Foodservice, in their October report noted that
election and the decline in mining investment.
service restaurants, but was lower for cafes, and
households were spending significantly less than
Therefore, despite the rate cuts, economic growth
caterers. The confidence score was highest for
what was forecast just six months previously, with
weakened throughout the year. Further noted, was
quick service restaurant chains (87 points),
catering expenditure contracting.
the weaker employment, wage and income growth
restaurants (80 points) and clubs/pubs (79 points).
throughout the year.
BIS Shrapnel also noted that across both the


BIS Foodservice also measures how operators
These factors have meant that BIS Foodservice’s
believe their business will perform in the next six
are facing difficulties in dealing with increased costs
economic forecasts were revised down to 2.3% for
months. According to the October results, the
across the board; utilities, insurance, labour, and
GDP in 2013-14, and 2.4% growth for household
strongest confidence was among quick service
rent.
consumption expenditure over the same period
restaurant chains, followed by hotels/motels.
(down from a forecast of 2.7% growth in their June
Confidence was lowest among quick service
report).
independents and caterers.
commercial and institutional sectors, all channels
Figure 24 Restaurants, cafes and takeaway turnover cycle
Domestic market performance
– past 20 years
Figure 25 Australian retail fresh meat s hares
All shoppers
purchase value
% change
14.0
All shoppers
purchase volume
12.3
12.0
8.8
9.2
9.5
8.6
Beef
36.8%
8.0
Beef
37.5%
6.7
6.6
4.0
3.6
2.7
2.0
0.0
0.3
-1.0
-2.0
01
02
03
04
Source: ABS, 8501.0 ‘original series’
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Lamb
13.4%
other
1.5%
1.1
00
Chicken
32.4%
Chicken
26.6%
10.2
10.5
10.0
6.0
Interestingly, despite the above trends, confidence
performance in 2013 include the continued
12
13*
* = January to November
Pork
10.2%
Source: AC Nielsen scan data
Veal
1.2%
Turkey
1.1%
Seafood
9.3%
Lamb
12.1%
Veal
0.8%
other
1.5%
Pork
9.8%
Turkey
1.2%
Seafood
4.7%
Australian lamb production has increased 78%
over the past 20 years, from 258,600 tonnes
cwt in 1993 to 460,000 tonnes cwt in 2013.
Over the same period, domestic lamb
consumption has remained relatively firm,
increasing only 1% to 210,000 tonnes cwt, from
80% of total production in 1993, to an estimated
45.7% in 2013.
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
19
Middle East
 Australian lamb exports to reach
61,000 tonnes swt in 2014, up 2%
year-on-year
 Higher lamb shipments to Bahrain
 Australian 2013 lamb exports to the Middle East: 59,777 tonnes swt
 Australian 2013 mutton exports to the Middle East: 40,910 tonnes swt
 Australian 2013 live sheep exports to the Middle East: 1.88 million head
20
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
heavily contributed to the increase in
volumes to the region, up from 3,336
tonnes swt in 2012 to 13,351 tonnes
swt in 2013
 Australian mutton exports to decline
to 34,100 tonnes swt in 2014, down
17% year-on-year
Middle East
Lamb


Australian lamb exports to the Middle East are forecast to reach 61,000 tonnes swt
in 2014, an increase of 2% on 2013 shipments. Despite a decline in overall
region. Demand for Australian carcase lamb drove exports to 13,351 tonnes swt in
production for 2014, Australian lamb exports to the Middle East are expected to
2013, up from 3,326 tonnes swt in 2012.
maintain their recent growth path, assisted by reduced competition, lower A$ and

sustained consumer demand across the region.

Shipments to Iran remain sporadic, with 2,755 tonnes swt exported in 2013, down
from 7,271 tonnes swt in 2012. Sanctions placed on Iran by the international
Australian lamb exports to the Middle East have grown rapidly in recent years,
community, currency fluctuations and the reluctance of shipping companies to
totalling 59,777 tonnes swt in 2013. In 2008, shipments totalled 25,500 tonnes swt,
move product directly to Iran have hindered the trade.
with consistent growth in exports since then an indication of the strength of the

region as a destination for Australian lamb.

Higher lamb exports to Bahrain also contributed to the increase in volumes to the
Encouragingly, Kuwait has also emerged as a strong market for Australian lamb
exports. Shipments in 2013 totalled 4,150 tonnes swt, growth of 40% year-on-
In recent years, there has been consistent growth to Australia’s largest market in
year.
the region, the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In 2013, 15,724 tonnes swt of

Australian lamb was destined for the UAE, growth of 19% year-on-year. Solid
The economic outlook for the broader Middle East region is positive; GDP growth
is forecast at 3.8% in 2014 and 4.2% in 2015, a positive for lamb consumption.
economic growth forecasts for the UAE, of 3.9% in 2014 and 3.8% in 2015, look
set to help sustain demand for Australian red meat.
Turpis justo, consequat sed viverra quis,
viverra eget ante. Pellentesque auctor
suscipit tellus, sit amet pulvinar massa
semper ut. Donec bibendum tellus vel
Figure 26 Lamb exports to the Middle East
ullamcorper
lobortis. Ut quis augue pulvinar,
'000 tonnes swt
70
blandit tellus.
60
Pellentesque auctor suscipit tellus, sit amet
pulvinar massa semper ut. Donec bibendum
30
tellus vel ullamcorper lobortis. Ut quis
20
augue pulvinar, blandit tellus.
10
50
40
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f
Source: DA volumes, MLA forecasts
f = forecast
Figure 27 Lamb exports to the Middle East - by market
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Figure 28 Lamb exports to the Middle East by cut - 2013
'000 tonnes swt
2012
carcase
73.9%
2013
other
4.0%
rack
2.9%
an
rd
Jo
Source: DA
U
AE
Q
ar
at
a
bi
ra
iA
d
u
Sa
n
Ira
it
wa
Ku
el
ra
Is
n
ai
hr
Ba
r
he
ot
Source: DA
leg
8.5%
shoulder
7.5%
forequarter
3.2%
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
21
Middle East

Mutton

10,404 tonnes swt of mutton destined for UAE ports. This was a slight decline
Australian mutton exports to the Middle East are forecast to reach 34,100 tonnes
(6%) year-on-year.
swt in 2014, a decrease of 17% on 2013 shipments. The forecast reduction in

mutton exports to the region comes as Australian mutton production is anticipated
Australian lamb carcase exports to the market has reportedly impacted on mutton
demand for mutton.
volumes, with lamb carcases (13,301 tonnes swt in 2013) gaining preference over
The Middle East is an important market for Australian mutton, with 40,911 tonnes
mutton.
swt shipped to the region in 2013. This represented 24% of all Australian mutton

exports. Illustrating the impact of growing Chinese demand on mutton shipments
estimated at 5% in 2013 and forecast to reach 3.4% in 2014, paints a positive
Middle East in 2012, representing 44% of all Australian mutton exports.
picture for protein demand in the country.
Saudi Arabia remained Australia’s largest market for mutton in the region in 2013,

with 12,761 tonnes swt. This was a slight increase on 2012 exports (up 1%) and
60
The economic outlook for the broader Middle East region is positive; GDP growth
is forecast at 3.8% in 2014 and 4.2% in 2015, helping underlying demand for
the highest level of shipments to Saudi Arabia since 2009.
Figure 29 Mutton exports to the Middle East
Oman emerged as a growing market for Australian mutton in 2013, with shipments
up 79% year-on-year, to 5,458 tonnes swt. Strong economic growth in Oman,
to the Middle East, 46,710 tonnes swt of Australian mutton was destined for the

Bahrain, previously a large market for Australian mutton exports (6,318 tonnes swt
in 2012), took next to no Australian mutton (12 tonnes) in 2013. The increase in
to drop from highs seen in 2013, and China is expected to maintain its strong

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) was Australia’s second largest market, with
Australian sheepmeat.
Figure 30 Mutton exports to the Middle East - by market
'000 tonnes swt
14
'000 tonnes swt
2012
12
50
Figure 31 Mutton exports to the Middle East by
cut - 2013
carcase
55.0%
2013
10
40
8
30
6
4
20
0
10
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f
Source: DA volumes, MLA forecasts
22
other
8.6%
2
f = forecast
an
rd
Jo
Source: DA
U
AE
Q
ar
at
r
iA
ud
Sa
ia
ab
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
Ira
n
w
Ku
t
ai
n
ai
hr
Ba
t
yp
Eg
m
O
an
O
er
th
rack
2.3%
leg
21.7%
Source: DA
shoulder
4.9%
manufacturing
7.5%
United States
 Australian lamb exports to the US to increase 7% in
2014, to 42,000 tonnes swt
 Chilled lamb accounted for 45% of lamb exported from
Australia to the US, compared to 30% in 2003
Sheep flock
 Lamb legs accounted for 31% of Australian lamb exports
to the US
5.2 million head
Annual sheepmeat
consumption
0.4kg/capita
(retail weight)
Annual sheepmeat production
71,000 tonnes cwe
Annual sheepmeat imports
78,000 tonnes cwe
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
23
United States

Lamb

go to the north-east of the country, where per capita
2012, legs increased closer to a more regular
lamb consumption is almost double the national
grow a further 7% in 2014, to 42,000 tonnes swt,
volume over 12,000 tonnes in 2013. In 2013, there
average. This is in large part due to the relative
which would be the highest calendar year total
was also a large increase in what are classified as
wealth of the region allowing for greater
since 2007. Although total exports are expected to
“assorted cuts”, which includes packages of three
consumption of lamb – a more expensive protein.
be slightly lower, the high value nature of the US
or more primals. This is likely to have accounted for
market, along with the added advantage of a lower
more leg exports in some packages, after growing
A$, is likely to help increase its share of total
from 4,200 tonnes in 2012 to 8,500 tonnes in 2013.


The peak demand periods for lamb in the US are
Easter and winter (between Thanksgiving and
Christmas), which has the potential to coincide well
Rack, shank, shortloin and shoulder exports
with Australia’s peak supply periods in autumn and
Much of the export growth in 2014 is expected to
account for the majority of other lamb exports to the
spring.
come in the form of chilled product, which would
US, all of which were around 4,000 tonnes in 2013.
continue the long term trend. In 2013, chilled lamb
There was a large drop, however, in shoulder
accounted for 45% of all Australian lamb shipped to
exports – largely due to the increased popularity in
the US, compared with 30% in 2003.
China.
Figure 33 Lamb exports to the US by cut - 2013
'000 tonnes swt
assorted primals
21.7%
leg
31.3%
40
Figure 34 Mutton exports to the US
25
'000 tonnes swt
20
30
15
other
0.6%
manufacturing
1.7%
20
10
shoulder
10.3%
rack
10.2%
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f
Source: DA volumes, MLA forecasts
24
Most of the high value lamb cuts exported to the US
Australian lamb exports to the US are forecast to
Figure 32 Lamb exports to the US
50

largest volume export cut to the US – after a dip in
exports.

Legs should easily maintain their position as the
f = forecast
Source: DA
shank
10.5%
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
shortloin
9.5%
carcase
4.1%
10
5
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f
Source: DA volumes, MLA forecasts
f = forecast
Sheep flock
China
282 million head
Annual
sheepmeat
consumption
3kg/capita
Annual
sheepmeat
production
4.1 million
tonnes cwe
The development of the Chinese
market as a major destination for
Australian sheepmeat in 2013 was
very welcome for the Australian
sheep industry, helping to consume
the large increased supply out of
Australia. Food safety is a major
issue for Chinese consumers, and
Australia’s strong food safety
regulations and the ‘clean & green’
image have helped boost exports
to China in recent years.
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
25
China
Lamb



China’s proportion of Australia’s lamb exports is expected to increase further in

While NZ lamb has a strong presence in China (with its market share at 54% in
2014, with total volumes forecast to increase 10% on the record 2013 volume, to
2013), Australia has maintained its market share at over 40% since 2008 (at 43%
43,300 tonnes swt. Robust demand and subsequent high sheepmeat prices in the
in 2013). Although the existing NZ-China Free Trade Agreement places Australia at
Chinese market are expected to continue throughout 2014, attracting additional
a competitive disadvantage, the impact of the NZ’s tariff advantage is expected to
volumes of Australian product.
be subtle in 2014, due to NZ’s anticipated lower production.
Australian lamb exports to China during 2013 reached new heights, at 39,535

In 2013, the most popular cut shipped to China remained breast and flap
tonnes swt, assisted by rising demand and Australia’s higher production. The
(traditionally high demand particularly for hot pots) at 20,331 tonnes swt,
record annual volume represented 18% of Australia’s total lamb exports in 2013.
accounting for 51% of Australian lamb exported to China during 2013. Reflecting
China’s GDP growth is forecast to slow down in the lead up to 2018 – from 7.7%
in 2013 to 6.1% in 2018 (IMA Asia). Although China’s population is expected to
China’s strict control over food safety, manufacturing lamb exports were down
slightly (1% year-on-year), at 5,885 tonnes swt. In contrast, shoulder and carcase
exports surged to 6,701 tonnes swt (up 261% year-on-year) and 2,589 tonnes swt
continue growing, reduced growth in working-age population will have a
dampening impact on the GDP. However, the fundamentals will remain relatively
(from only 81 tonnes swt in 2012 - up 3,094%), respectively.
strong in comparison to major global economies. In addition, ongoing urbanisation
and changes in diet, along with rapid growth of online retailers are expected to
contribute to sustained demand from China for Australian lamb.
Figure 35 Lamb exports to China
Figure 36 Lamb exports to China by cut - 2013
'000 tonnes swt
breast & flap
51.4%
50
other
3.2%
carcase
6.5%
40
30
neck
7.0%
20
10
manufacturing
14.9%
0
95
96
97
98
99
Source: DA volumes, MLA forecasts
26
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14f
f = forecast
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
Source: DA
shoulder
16.9%
China
Mutton


In line with the forecast reduction in Australia’s


The top three cuts (carcase, breast & flap and leg)
mutton production in 2014, exports to China for the
exported to China during 2013 accounted for 86%
year are forecast to be down 19% year-on-year, to
of total shipments. The cut in the highest demand
47,000 tonnes swt. China was placed as the largest
was carcase, at 27,026 tonnes swt (from 2,359
export destination for Australian mutton in 2013, at
tonnes swt in 2012). Increased demand for mutton
a record 57,888 tonnes swt – or 34% of Australia’s
(along with lamb and beef) carcase was related to
total mutton exports in 2013.
the declining national local flock, driven by an
China’s intake of NZ mutton during 2013 also
attempt reduce costs and get local processors to
climbed 192% year-on-year, to 49,332 tonnes swt.
process the carcase. Following carcase were breast
In addition to the strong fundamentals, a shortage
of lamb in the Chinese market has reportedly driven
increased demand for imported mutton. A lack of
sheepmeat supply in the Chinese market has also
& flap and leg, at 16,276 tonnes swt (up 87% yearon-year) and 6,390 tonnes swt (up 267%),
respectively. Shoulder exports also jumped 339%,
to 3,391 tonnes swt.
caused a surge of market prices. The 2013 average
bone-in sheepmeat retail price reached RMB62.33/
kg (A$10.55), up 20% on 2012 and 115% higher
than the ten-year average.
Figure 38 Mutton exports to China by cut - 2013
Figure 37 Mutton exports to China
50
breast & flap
28.1%
'000 tonnes swt
40
shoulder
5.9%
other
4.9%
30
manufacturing
3.4%
20
leg
11.0%
10
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f
Source: DA volumes, MLA forecasts
f = forecast
Source: DA
carcase
46.7%
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
27
European Union


Australian lamb exports to the EU are forecast to

A surge of New Zealand (NZ) exports onto the market

Economic conditions in the EU are forecast to
reach 12,000 tonnes swt in 2014, up 2% on the
in the first half of 2013, a result of drought in NZ,
improve in 2014. The UK, with GDP growth of 1.4%
previous year. Australian sheepmeat exports to the
contributed to a tough operating environment for
in 2013, is forecast to grow at 1.9% in 2014.
EU are constrained by a small country specific
Australian sheepmeat exporters. With a tightening in
Although only a moderate strengthening in growth,
quota allocation, of 19,186 tonnes cwe. This,
NZ supply as 2013 progressed, Australian lamb was
this compares with 0.2% in 2012, where the UK
combined with tough economic conditions in the
able to flow to the market at higher prices. NZ, with
narrowly avoided recession.
EU, has defined the operating environment for
quota access of 228,254 tonnes cwe, dominates
Australian sheepmeat in the EU in recent years.
imported lamb market share throughout the EU.


A forecast decline in sheepmeat production in the
EU, combined with largely stagnant imports, is set
Encouragingly, NZ supplies are anticipated to
to impact negatively on sheepmeat consumption in
down 3% year-on-year. Despite the reduction in
remain relatively tight in 2014. This, combined with
coming years. From 2012 through to 2022,
lamb shipments, 2013 was a better year for
an improvement in economic sentiment throughout
sheepmeat consumption is forecast to fall from
Australian sheepmeat exporters to the market.
Europe, and in particular in the UK, Australia’s
2.2kg per capita to 1.95kg per capita, tempering the
Quota usage, which was 89% in 2012, increased to
largest sheepmeat market in the region, look set to
long term outlook.
99% in 2013, an indication of an improvement in
make for a positive year for Australian sheepmeat
conditions in the market, along with additional
exporters to the EU.
Australian lamb exports totalled 11,746 tonnes swt,
Australian supplies.
Figure 39 Lamb exports to EU
16
Figure 40 Lamb exports to EU by cut - 2013
chump
5.9%
'000 tonnes swt
leg
51.3%
14
Figure 41 Mutton exports to EU
14
'000 tonnes swt
12
other
10.2%
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
shank
15.3%
4
2
boneless loin
1.7%
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f
Source: DA, MLA forecasts
28
f = forecast
Source: DA
manufacturing
14.2%
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
rack
1.4%
4
2
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f
Source: DA, MLA forecasts
f = forecast
Japan
Lamb

While a continued improvement is expected in the
Mutton

12
Hokkaido economy and in the performance of
assisted Australian mutton exports to Japan during
10
Genghis Khan (Hokkaido style Sheepmeat
2013, with volumes increasing 20% year-on-year to
8
barbecue) foodservice sector, the weak Yen,
3,787 tonnes swt – with a 54% lift in chilled
6
combined with strong competition for Australian
shipments (to 85 tonnes swt).
4

shipments in 2014, limiting volumes to Japan to
1,163 tonnes swt, and 36% to 1,427 tonnes swt,
at 7,697 tonnes swt, 11 tonnes more than the
respectively, while backstrap volume slightly eased
previous year. Improved supplies of chilled lamb
(0.9%) to 894 tonnes swt.
year-on-year, to 5,208 tonnes, while frozen lamb
volumes were down 7% to 2,489 tonnes swt. Slow
but gradual improvement of the tourism and local
economy in the Hokkaido region – the largest
sheepmeat consumption area – continued to
underpin the volumes in the market.
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f
Source: DA, MLA forecasts

Figure 43 Lamb exports to Japan by cut - 2013
manufacturing
31.8%
leg
7.0%
other
4.5%
Sheepmeat demand in 2014 is expected to remain
similar to 2013 levels, with any improvement in
rack
8.2%
buying hinging upon the market’s economic
strength and supplies from New Zealand. The small,
but well established, Genghis Khan market
continues to require lamb and mutton shoulder cuts.
Source: DA
shoulder
48.4%
That said, the Australian supply situation is
The cut trend in 2013 was similar to 2012 and
expected to tighten, for mutton in particular,
previous years, with a 17% increase in shoulder
resulting in an anticipated 20.8% decline in mutton
shipments to 3,728 tonnes swt, but the growth was
exports to Japan, at 3,000 tonnes swt.
Figure 44 Mutton exports to Japan
25
partially offset by a 18% decline in shoulder meat
20
exports (more affordable alternative to shoulder,
15
with neck fillet removed) at 2,448 tonnes swt. Rack
f = forecast
meat) during 2013 increased 30% from 2012 to
Lamb shipments to Japan during 2013 were stable
from Australia lifted shipments to Japan by 4%
'000 tonnes swt
2
Broken down by cut, shipments of leg and
manufacturing (mostly trunk meat and shoulder
7,500 tonnes swt.

14
The improvement in the Hokkaido economy also
lamb from other markets, will likely constrain

Figure 42 Lamb exports to Japan
'000 tonnes swt
10
(633 tonnes swt, down 7%) and leg (540 tonnes
swt, up 27%) shipments were other major cuts to
5
Japan.
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f
Source: DA, MLA forecasts
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
f = forecast
29
Hong Kong and Taiwan
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Lamb
Lamb
Mutton



In anticipation of sustained demand from the major
Taiwan during 2014 are forecast to be down 35%
forecast to be down 55% on 2013, at 3,000 tonnes
Australian lamb exports to Hong Kong during 2014
on 2013, at 1,200 tonnes swt.
swt.

tonnes swt.
In 2013, Australian lamb exports to Taiwan rose

Australia’s annual mutton shipments to Taiwan
14% year-on-year, to 1,834 tonnes swt. While
during 2013 were 36% above 2012, at 6,649 tonnes
Partly assisted by lower NZ lamb exports to Hong
manufacturing increased 115% year-on-year, to
swt. While mutton manufacturing shipments fell
Kong during 2013 (down 15% year-on-year, at
1,109 tonnes swt, shoulder exports were down
40% year-on-year, at 2,145 tonnes swt, the volumes
3,861 tonnes swt), Australian lamb exports to Hong
41% year-on-year, to 277 tonnes swt, influenced by
of carcase and breast & flap rose to 2,140 tonnes
Kong during the year lifted 116% year-on-year, to
increased exports to China.
swt (up 386%) and 881 tonnes swt (up 298%),
Although NZ lamb exports to Taiwan during 2013
respectively.
7,539 tonnes swt, with breast & flap (3,690 tonnes

swt) and manufacturing lamb (1,327 tonnes swt)
decreased 40% year-on-year, to 1,659 tonnes swt,
making up the majority of the shipments.
Mutton

Australian mutton exports to Taiwan during 2014 are
markets of China, the Middle East and the US,
are expected to be 14% lower than 2013, at 6,500

Similar to Hong Kong, Australian lamb exports to

NZ mutton exports to Taiwan have decreased
the NZ-Taiwan Economic Cooperation that came
steadily for the last three years, with the 2013
into effect on 1 December 2013, will challenge
annual volume down another 23% year-on-year, to
Australia’s trade to Taiwan in 2014. Tariffs on NZ
5,064 tonnes swt. However, as stated earlier, NZ
With a substantial decline in Australia’s mutton
sheepmeat will gradually decline over the next three
stands to benefit from tariff advantages into the
production in 2014, exports to several markets are
years.
market in 2014.
forecast to decline, including Hong Kong. Australia’s
annual shipments during 2014 are anticipated to be
significantly lower than the 2013 level, at 1,000
tonnes swt.

Figure 45 Lamb exports to Greater China
60
Figure 46 Mutton exports to Greater China
'000 tonnes swt
80
China
Hong Kong
Taiwan
China
Hong Kong
Taiwan
50
Australian mutton exports to Hong Kong in 2013
registered the highest annual volume on record, at
6,641 tonnes swt, with a significant increase in
60
40
30
40
20
carcase exports, at 4,948 tonnes swt (from 288
tonnes swt in 2012).
20
10
0
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f
Source: DA, MLA forecasts
30
'000 tonnes swt
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
f = forecast
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f
Source: DA, MLA forecasts
f = forecast
South East Asia
Lamb
Mutton



Given the forecast for stronger global competition for Australian lamb during 2014,
it is anticipated that volumes to South East Asia (SEA), at 10,000 tonnes swt, will
destinations for Australia within the region. After seeing massive growth in 2013
be down 13% on 2013, as volumes continue to flow to the largest markets –
(primarily due to supply), Australian mutton exports to SEA during 2014 are
primarily the Middle East, China and the US.
expected to be back significantly, at 6,500 tonnes swt.
Australian lamb exports to SEA during 2013 achieved a record annual volume, at

Australian mutton exports to SEA during 2013 surged across the region, led by
11,493 tonnes swt. While the Australian annual volume to Malaysia reached 6,255
traditional markets, Malaysia (at 11,135 tonnes swt – record annual volume) and
tonnes swt in 2013, exports to Singapore fell 16%, to 1,450 tonnes swt. However,
Singapore (up 28% on 2012, to 7,401 tonnes swt). Illustrating the growth was also
trade to Vietnam and Indonesia improved during the year, at 1,760 tonnes swt and
exports to Vietnam, at 3,233 tonnes swt from only 95 tonnes swt in 2012.
933 tonnes swt (both were record annual shipments), respectively.

Similar to lamb, Malaysia and Singapore are both major mutton export

Carcase exports to the region during 2013 climbed 112% year-on-year, to 12,543
Shoulder was the most popular cut shipped to the region in 2013, totalling 4,542
tonnes swt – mainly exported to Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. Following
tonnes swt, the majority of which (89% or 4,028 tonnes swt) was sent to Malaysia.
carcase was manufacturing (4,043 tonnes swt) and leg (3,225 tonnes swt), both of
Indicating the existing “grey channel” through to China, breast & flap exports to
which were mainly exported to Malaysia and Singapore.
Vietnam lifted 83% year-on-year, to 1,254 tonnes swt, accounting for 95% of total
breast & flap shipments to the SEA region.
South East Asia
Figure 48 Mutton exports to SEA
Figure 47 Lamb exports to SEA
12
*South East Asia = Singapore, Malaysia,
Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam
'000 tonnes swt
25
10
'000 tonnes swt
20
8
15
6
10
4
5
2
0
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f
Source: DA, MLA forecasts
f = forecast
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14f
Source: DA, MLA forecasts
f = forecast
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
31
Other
Papua New Guinea

Australian lamb exports to Papua New Guinea
South Africa

Figure 49 Lamb exports to other markets
30
South Africa is a relatively small importer of
(PNG) reached 12,482 tonnes swt in 2013, back 5%
Australian lamb, with exports in 2013 totalling 1,775
year-on-year, taking 6% of Australia’s market share.
tonnes swt, down 9% from the previous year. The
Almost all of the lamb shipped to PNG in 2013 was
major cut shipped to South Africa last year was
frozen, with the major cuts being breast & flap
breast & flap (1,584 tonnes swt), and all shipments
(8,891 tonnes swt), neck (1,444 tonnes swt) and
were frozen cuts.
'000 tonnes swt
25
Papua New Guinea
South Africa
Korea
Russia
20
15
10
5
0
shoulder (1,115 tonnes swt).


Mutton export volumes eased 4% year-on-year, to
Mutton shipments to PNG have almost halved since
1,198 tonnes swt, which is a big difference from the
five years ago, as prices have become too
highs of 2006, when shipments totalled 19,620
expensive to sustain imports of Australian product.
tonnes swt. Increasing mutton export prices over
In 2013, 2,458 tonnes swt of mutton was shipped to
the last five years have seen Australian mutton
PNG from Australia, up 161% year-on-year,
shipment volumes to South Africa decline
40
following a particularly small export volume the
considerably.
30
previous year. All mutton exports to PNG during
2013 were frozen, and the primary cut was breast &
flap (2,012 tonnes swt).
Korea
In 2013, Australian lamb exports to Korea increased
Russia

Despite a 12% year-on-year decline, Australian
main lamb cuts shipped to Korea in 2013 were
lamb exports to Russia have been steadily
shoulder (1,464 tonnes swt), breast & flap (590
increasing over the past decade, reaching 1,453
tonnes swt), and manufacturing (511 tonnes swt).
tonnes swt in 2013. The bulk (86%) of lamb
shipments to Russia were frozen cuts, with the
major cut being lamb shoulder (1,140 tonnes swt).
Mutton shipments lifted 26% on last year, to 3,816
50
'000 tonnes swt
Papua New Guinea
South Africa
Korea
Russia
20
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Source: DA, MLA forecasts
export volume to Korea in the past 10 years. The

Figure 51 Lamb exports to Africa and the Pacific
35
'000 tonnes swt
South Africa
other Africa
Pacific
30
In contrast with most other Asian markets, Korea is
25
only a small importer of Australian mutton, with
20
shipments in 2013 totalling 992 tonnes swt, up 4%
15
year-on-year.
10
tonnes swt, with the main cuts consisting of leg
(1,538 tonnes swt), carcase (992 tonnes swt), and
shoulder (927 tonnes swt).
32
Figure 50 Mutton exports to other markets
10

6%, reaching 3,175 tonnes swt – the largest yearly

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Source: DA, MLA forecasts
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
5
0
01
02
03
04
Source: DA, MLA forecasts
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14f
f = forecast
Offal


With the high levels of slaughter and production

which was 13% higher than the previous year. The
and mutton) offal exports in 2013 rose 19% year-on-
Middle East continued to demand the bulk of
year, with the total exports for the year reaching
Australian sheep livers (9,656 tonnes), although the
30,134 tonnes swt.
volume exported remained relatively steady on the
previous year. Liver shipments to South Africa
The Middle East remained the primary destination
increased more than three-fold year-on-year,
for sheep offal throughout 2013, accounting for over
totalling 831 tonnes swt in 2013.
one-third of Australia’s total sheep offal shipments
at 11,918 tonnes swt, a 6% increase on the

Liver exports reached 11,050 tonnes swt in 2013,
sustained throughout 2013, Australian sheep (lamb

Sheep heart exports lifted 28% year-on-year in
previous year. Hong Kong was the second largest
2013, to 3,714 tonnes swt, with South Africa taking
market for sheep offal exports in 2013, and a
the majority of shipments for the year (1,062 tonnes
decrease in shipping costs early in the year assisted
swt). Other key markets for heart in 2013 were
a 23% year-on-year rise in shipments, reaching
Papua New Guinea (963 tonnes swt) and China (881
9,788 tonnes swt.
tonnes swt).
South Africa, China and Papua New Guinea were
also growing markets for Australian sheep offal in
2013, with exports totalling 1,897 tonnes swt (up
16%), 1,876 tonnes swt (up 90%) and 1,774 tonnes
swt (up 59%), respectively.

Figure 52 Australian Offal Exports
35
25
in 2013, as export volumes increased 19% year-on-
20
year, to 11,125 tonnes swt, largely driven by a 23%
15
swt).
Kidney
6.1%
30
Tripe was the primary sheep offal product shipped
lift in tripe shipments to Hong Kong (9,246 tonnes
Figure 53 Australian sheep offal by cut - 2013
'000 tonnes swt
Heart
12.3%
Other
3.7%
Tripe
36.9%
10
5
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Source: DA
Source: DA
Tongues
4.3%
Liver
36.7%
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
33
Live exports – summary



Australian live sheep exports are forecast to reach
A significant challenge for exporters will be in securing
Figure 54 Australian live sheep exports
2.3 million head in 2014, up 22.3% on the estimated
adequate volumes of suitable sheep, given a
8
1.88 million head for 2013.
combination the record level of sheep turnoff in 2013
7
and the expected strong processor demand in 2014.
Improved market access in key markets in the

Middle East is likely to underpin the forecast rise;
Market access will continually be sought after
million sheep and lambs
6
5
4
3
however, this will likely impact on the recent growth
across all countries, and ongoing negotiations
in other live sheep markets.
regarding ESCAS standards with Middle Eastern
1
markets, in particular, Bahrain, Turkey, Libya and
0
2
97
Saudi Arabia will likely see further increases in live
sheep exports in 2014.
Table 4
Australian live sheep exports (head)
2013 e
2009
2010
2011
2012
Kuwait
948,271
1,076,455
956,725
706,644
775,000
Qatar
352,695
321,415
395,728
531,894
535,000
Bahrain
747,827
535,731
354,450
249,741
0
Turkey
0
215,038
352,352
245,147
120
Jordan
% change
2014 f
% change
To:
800,000
3%
1%
550,000
3%
-100%
200,000
-
-100%
250,000
208233%
470,511
265,986
217,067
327,960
320,000
-2%
300,000
-6%
Israel
23,400
42,000
56,600
64,007
60,000
-6%
65,000
8%
Oman
289,223
69,073
41,025
19,892
50,000
151%
40,000
-20%
UAE
130,312
78,748
37,385
33,211
105,000
216%
80,000
-24%
Saudi Arabia
576,147
262,500
24,000
69,000
0
-100%
0
Other
29,223
101,625
23,145
31,120
34,880
12%
15,000
-57%
Total
3,567,609
2,968,571
2,458,477 2,278,616
1,880,000
-17%
2,300,000
22%
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
34
10%
0%
f = forecasts (indicated in italics)
e = estimate based on 11 months data
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
99
01
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
03
05
07
09
11
13e
15f
17f
e = estimate, f = forecast
Live exports – markets

Based on eleven months of live export data in 2013, total live sheep exports are
Underpinning this decrease, continuing ESCAS negotiations with Saudi Arabia and
Competition from Somalia is expected to increase steadily in the medium term,
Turkey resulted in large year-on-year declines, while the exclusion of Bahrain from
also impacting demand for Australian sheep.

Exports to Jordan decreased 2% in 2013, at 320,000. However, greater
Kuwait is historically Australia’s largest live sheep export market and expected to
competition for supply is likely to see live exports in 2014 settle at 300,000 head,
remain the case in 2014, with exports forecast to remain steady on 800,000 head.
down 6% year-on-year.
The absence of Bahrain from the Gulf shipping circuit in 2012 and 2013, combined
with the recent market adjustments in the Middle East, disrupted trade over the
past two years, but it is likely that the trade will recover slightly in 2014.

Although making a slight resurgence in late 2013, Oman is currently experiencing
issues with ESCAS, which will likely see numbers drop to 40,000 head in 2014.
the trade also contributed.


estimated to have reached 1.88 million head in 2013, back 17% on 2012.
Qatar is a stable live sheep export market and is estimated to have remained firm

Increased importer/exporter activity in the United Arab Emirates throughout 2013
has seen numbers almost treble total exports in 2012. It is expected that this
number will decrease slightly in 2014, with the market stabilising at around 80,000
head.
on 2012, at 530,000 head in 2013. The market is expected to experience growth in
2014, with improved trade conditions expected to minimise market access issues
experienced in 2013, this will likely to see the trade reach 550,000 head in 2014.
Figure 56 Live sheep exports by destination
Figure 55 Australian live sheep exports by destination
January to November 2013
1,741,939 head
January to November 2012
2,147,047 head
Kuwait
30.2%
Jordan
15.3%
million head
8
7
Kuwait
41.7%
Jordan
16.5%
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
UAE
Jordan
Oman
Qatar
Turkey
other
Bahrain
6
5
Bahrain
11.6%
Oman
0.5%
Qatar
22.2%
Source: ABS
4
UAE
1.2%
Other
12.7%
Israel
3.0%
Saudi Arabia
3.2%
Oman
2.8%
UAE
5.4%
3
Israel Other
3.1% 1.9%
1
2
0
Qatar
28.5%
95
97
Source: ABS, MLA forecasts
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13e 14f
e = estimate, f = forecast
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
35
Statistical appendices
36
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
Appendix 1 – Mutton 20x10
Table 5
Australian mutton exports to top 20 destinations and major regions by the 10 main cuts – continued on next page
Total (All Cuts)
Carcase
%
change
2013
tonnage
Net change
65,349
6 1%
82,002
4 1, 5 3 6
254%
27,026
12 , 7 6 1
115
1%
MALAYSIA
11, 13 5
5,573
DUBAI
9,889
US
8,747
SINGAPORE
7,401
TAIWAN
Leg
Manufacturing
Breast & flap
% change
2013
tonnage
35,345
76%
28,437
8 , 8 15
45%
14 , 9 2 9
1, 9 7 0
15 %
20,777
10 , 0 0 4
93%
24,667
10 4 6 %
6,390
4,651
267%
1, 9 6 6
1, 3 6 1
225%
16 , 2 7 6
7,550
87%
4,878
8 12
20%
2,721
- 15 5
- 5%
2,402
- 16 7
- 7%
11
5
80%
10 0 %
5,457
2,972
12 0 %
791
329
7 1%
3,066
1, 2 7 2
7 1%
1
0
14 7 %
261
3%
5,761
- 117
- 2%
2,765
259
10 %
12 2
51
72%
11
4
67%
1, 2 7 6
17 %
5 , 18 8
- 4 10
- 7%
1, 7 2 6
982
13 2 %
19
19
-
0
0
0%
1, 6 2 7
28%
3,877
6 13
19 %
2,303
654
40%
929
232
33%
1
-4
- 79%
6,649
1, 7 7 5
36%
2 , 14 0
1, 7 0 0
386%
10 5
- 31
- 23%
2 , 14 5
- 1, 4 3 2
- 40%
881
660
298%
HONG KONG
6,641
5,733
632%
4,948
4,660
16 2 0 %
462
242
110 %
30
10
50%
8 11
552
2 14 %
OMAN
5,458
2 , 4 10
79%
4,323
1, 9 7 0
84%
1, 0 8 6
422
63%
0
0
0%
0
0
0%
KUWAIT
4,976
- 782
- 14 %
3 , 18 1
- 1, 0 9 1
- 26%
708
- 93
- 12 %
536
203
6 1%
0
0
0%
UNITED KINGDOM
4,230
951
29%
3,495
1, 0 16
4 1%
3 13
- 10 1
- 24%
2013 tonnage
Net change
World Total
17 2 , 0 4 5
CHINA
57,888
SAUDI ARABIA
Destination
0
Net change % change
2013
tonnage
Net change % change
2013
tonnage
Net change % change
0
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
3 , 8 16
791
26%
992
40
4%
1, 5 3 8
292
23%
19 2
37
24%
JAPAN
3,787
623
20%
10 1
- 14
- 12 %
1, 16 3
267
30%
1, 4 2 7
376
36%
VIETNAM
3,233
3 , 13 8
3 3 0 1%
2,988
2,905
3 5 17 %
6
3
13 1%
0
0
0%
9
9
-
MEXICO
2,895
2,492
6 18 %
868
779
873%
0
0
0%
0
0
0%
0
0
0%
MOROCCO
2,770
2,726
6 19 5 %
2,770
2,762
3 4 5 13 %
0
0
0%
0
0
0%
0
0
0%
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
2,458
1, 5 16
16 1%
15
15
-
55
55
-
87
- 31
- 26%
2 , 0 12
1, 2 5 4
16 5 %
EGYPT
2,422
- 1, 0 15
- 30%
786
17
2%
522
- 429
- 45%
0
0
0%
10 6
- 13 5
- 56%
QATAR
1, 9 6 2
- 565
- 22%
1, 3 0 8
- 468
- 26%
5 18
- 97
- 16 %
16
- 20
- 56%
-6
- 32%
0
0
1, 4 14
604
75%
1, 3 8 8
588
73%
Middle East
4 0 , 9 11
- 5,800
- 12 %
22,497
- 5,802
- 2 1%
8,874
206
2%
3,076
38
1%
19 3
- 89
- 32%
SE Asia
18 , 9 6 9
7,301
63%
9,555
3 , 7 17
64%
3 , 2 19
945
42%
4,043
1, 5 0 3
59%
2
-4
- 66%
JAMAICA
0
13
0
0
Source: Department of Agriculture
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
37
Appendix 1 – Mutton 20x10
Table 5
Australian mutton exports to top 20 destinations and major regions by the 10 main cuts – from previous page
Shoulder
2013
tonnage
Net
change
World Total
11, 8 3 6
CHINA
3,391
SAUDI ARABIA
MALAYSIA
Destination
% change
2013
tonnage
Net
change
6,487
12 1%
771
2 , 6 19
339%
1, 4 9 0
- 225
- 13 %
1, 4 4 8
769
Bone-in loin
% change
2013
tonnage
- 475
- 38%
3,021
481
- 12 4
- 10 0 %
269
- 16 4
5
- 12
- 70%
922
- 243
113 %
49
48
4558%
61
Backstrap
Net
% change
change
2013
tonnage
Net
change
19 %
1, 8 5 2
- 38%
208
- 2 1%
- 15
Shank
Rack
% change
2013
tonnage
Net
change
405
28%
2,392
876
58%
2,303
927
67%
207
35386%
7 18
659
1115 %
495
2 10
74%
4
4
-
72
- 45
- 39%
67
25
59%
- 20%
96
70
276%
78
55
237%
50
38
3 18 %
% change
2013
Net
tonnage change
%
change
110
38
54%
29
17
13 5 %
25
19
292%
58
23
68%
19 8
- 116
- 37%
627
15 0
32%
1, 4 2 1
659
86%
6
6
-
0
0
0%
3
1
29%
320
-7
- 2%
24
8
47%
SINGAPORE
7
4
14 6 %
0
0
0%
46
34
285%
14 1
80
12 9 %
12
6
98%
16
8
93%
TAIWAN
0
0
- 55%
79
60
307%
371
371
-
10
- 28
- 73%
64
12
24%
673
423
17 0 %
HONG KONG
0
-4
- 92%
-7
- 10 0 %
114
10 3
10 19 %
1
1
-
15 7
115
278%
1
0
43%
7
5
250%
0
0
0%
6
1
32%
0
0
0%
5
5
-
20
3
17 %
13 5
81
14 9 %
2
2
-
16
16
-
1
1
-
19
- 56
- 75%
206
56
38%
3
3
-
39
13
52%
0
0
-
-2
- 10 0 %
10 3 %
0
- 76
- 10 0 %
-5
- 22%
DUBAI
US
OMAN
KUWAIT
0
UNITED KINGDOM
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
927
451
0
95%
0
0
0%
13 3
68
0
19
JAPAN
84
- 12
- 13 %
5
5
2047%
4
4
-
894
-8
- 1%
72
- 23
- 24%
8
6
285%
VIETNAM
14 6
14 5
16 7 8 7 %
22
22
-
0
0
0%
0
0
0%
22
16
278%
22
20
830%
1, 9 6 0
1, 6 4 6
525%
44
44
-
45
30
202%
0
0
0%
0
0
0%
10 1
57
12 9 %
13
12
7 18 %
70
70
-
0
0
0%
467
- 474
- 50%
428
- 78
- 15 %
QATAR
-1
- 10 0 %
0
JAMAICA
-3
- 10 0 %
0
MEXICO
MOROCCO
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
EGYPT
38
Forequarter
0
0
0
0%
0
26
26
-
0
0
0
0
0
0
0%
37
-8
- 18 %
0
0
0%
0
3
0
- 14 %
13
13
-
113
84
283%
0
0
0%
17
17
-
0
0
0
0
Middle East
2,021
10 0
5%
508
- 464
- 48%
1, 5 9 4
- 111
- 7%
10 4
14
15 %
407
- 13 3
- 25%
941
246
35%
SE Asia
1, 4 5 9
774
113 %
49
48
4558%
119
27
30%
237
15 0
17 2 %
90
60
208%
86
49
13 2 %
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
Appendix 2 – Lamb 20x10
Table 6
Australian lamb exports to top 20 destinations and major regions by the 10 main cuts – continued on next page
Total (All Cuts)
Breast & flap
Leg
Shoulder
2013 tonnage
Net change
%
change
2013
tonnage
Net change
% change
2013
tonnage
World Total
2 13 , 7 14
10 , 0 14
34%
3 9 , 15 6
1, 6 0 6
4%
3 0 , 18 0
624
2%
30,541
3,929
15 %
15 , 4 8 9
835
6%
CHINA
39,535
2 , 5 13
7%
20,331
1, 0 2 4
5%
496
435
7 10 %
6 , 14 3
202
3%
5,885
- 35
- 1%
US
3 9 , 18 0
10 , 0 2 5
3 0 1%
4
-8
- 67%
12 , 2 7 3
1, 4 2 5
13 %
4,037
- 2 , 10 6
- 34%
685
- 244
- 26%
BAHRAIN
13 , 3 5 1
2,562
24%
0
0
0%
4
-4
- 47%
25
- 17 5
- 88%
15
15
-
DUBAI
13 , 2 2 1
- 2 18
- 2%
2
0
20%
2,396
291
14 %
1, 7 6 4
3 12
2 1%
2
-5
- 7 1%
JORDAN
12 , 7 4 1
- 620
- 5%
0
-2
- 10 0 %
646
- 388
- 37%
1, 4 9 2
- 352
- 19 %
252
10 9
76%
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
12 , 4 8 2
10 8
1%
8,891
- 1, 3 9 4 . 8 8
- 14 %
367
29
9%
1, 115
348
45%
351
110
46%
Destination
Net change % change
2013
tonnage
Manufacturing
Net change % change
2013
tonnage
Net change % change
UNITED KINGDOM
9 , 12 4
10
0%
1
1
-
4 , 4 12
- 496
- 10 %
15
- 20
- 57%
1, 6 6 5
16 5
11%
JAPAN
7,697
4,048
116 %
10
0
- 4%
540
115
27%
3,728
549
17 %
2,450
- 558
- 19 %
HONG KONG
7,539
1, 2 3 9
25%
3,690
2,030
12 2 %
18 7
77
70%
3 16
19 6
16 4 %
1, 3 2 7
476
56%
MALAYSIA
6,255
86
1%
26
3
13 %
549
201
58%
4,028
985
32%
110
52
9 1%
QATAR
6 , 0 19
878
19 %
0
0
0%
274
6
2%
93
- 10
- 10 %
16
16
-
CANADA
5,563
1, 17 6
40%
0
0
0%
2,240
455
25%
464
12 6
37%
13 5
25
23%
KUWAIT
4 , 15 0
- 19 1
- 5%
0
0
0%
53
-6
- 11%
82
- 46
- 36%
330
44
15 %
SAUDI ARABIA
3,783
16 7
6%
1
-6
- 80%
1, 3 4 8
- 327
- 20%
393
17
4%
86
1
1%
SOUTH KOREA
3 , 17 5
- 4 , 5 17
- 62%
590
- 39
- 6%
81
-9
- 10 %
1, 4 6 4
245
20%
5 11
-3
- 1%
IRAN
2,755
- 43
- 2%
3 1. 7
- 309
- 9 1%
64
- 606
- 9 1%
- 539
- 10 0 %
0
0
0%
ABU DHABI
2,503
226
14 %
0
0
0%
16 3
25
18 %
119
4
4%
0
0
0%
TAIWAN
1, 8 3 4
- 17 6
- 9%
13 6
- 21
- 13 %
3
- 42
- 92%
277
- 19 2
- 4 1%
1, 10 9
594
115 %
SOUTH AFRICA
1, 7 7 5
844
92%
1, 5 8 4
- 13 1
- 8%
5
- 23
- 8 1%
- 30
- 10 0 %
10 0
- 20
- 17 %
VIETNAM
1, 7 6 0
- 84
- 5%
1, 2 5 4
568
83%
87
14
19 %
93
83
860%
69
62
953%
59,777
7,965
15 %
35
- 398
- 92%
5 , 10 4
- 1, 115
- 18 %
4,463
- 1, 0 2 1
- 19 %
701
17 5
33%
9,734
993
11%
65
- 19
- 23%
1, 6 6 0
13 7
9%
4,449
946
27%
205
23
13 %
Middle East
SE Asia
Source: Department of Agriculture
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
39
Appendix 2 – Lamb 20x10
Table 6
Australian lamb exports to top 20 destinations and major regions by the 10 main cuts – from previous page
Carcase
Forequarter
2013
tonnage
Net
change
% change
2013
tonnage
Net
change
% change
2013
tonnage
60,584
20,426
5 1%
9,663
- 436
- 4%
2,347
- 1, 8 6 7
CHINA
2,589
2,508
3094%
75
- 27
- 27%
75
US
10 , 0 9 4
4,571
83%
4 , 0 14
- 4 16
- 9%
BAHRAIN
13 , 3 0 1
10 , 19 2
328%
6
-2
- 26%
DUBAI
7,705
1, 8 2 2
3 1%
741
44
JORDAN
8,645
2 , 4 12
39%
73
0
0
- 44%
12
Destination
World Total
PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Shortloin
Net
% change
change
Shank
Neck
2013
tonnage
Net
change
% change
2013
tonnage
Net
change
% change
- 44%
5,597
- 454
- 7%
9,720
440
5%
75
-
4,471
374
9%
18 2
17 9
5 18 3 %
-5
- 10 0 %
5
0
7%
4 , 10 9
29
1%
0
0
0%
0
0
- 42%
6%
57
1
2%
68
1
1%
338
75
29%
5
- 19
- 79%
25
54%
1, 5 4 8
- 1, 7 0 1
- 52%
1
-1
- 5 1%
74
69
16 6 4 %
10
- 389
- 98%
4
57%
19
- 42
- 69%
57
24
74%
44
28
16 7 %
1, 4 4 4
14 2
11%
0
2013
Net
tonnage change
5,978
484
2,779
638
%
change
9%
0
30%
0
0
0
- 10 0 %
88
- 18
- 17 %
0
0
0%
1
1
-
2,368
350
17 %
0
JAPAN
13 7
- 23
- 14 %
633
- 49
- 7%
28
- 11
- 28%
42
29
224%
33
0
1%
-9
- 10 0 %
HONG KONG
845
840
18 7 5 8 %
406
35
9%
0
0
-
20
3
2 1%
57
10
22%
653
4 10
16 9 %
MALAYSIA
724
- 82
- 10 %
19 4
- 53
- 22%
13
7
10 5 %
30
9
42%
478
111
30%
37
23
17 2 %
5,386
85
2%
18 3
2
1%
8
-4
- 3 1%
0
-1
- 94%
8
-6
- 43%
0
CANADA
73
-8
- 10 %
723
34
5%
0
0
0%
1, 2 5 4
15 5
14 %
574
76
15 %
- 12
KUWAIT
3,490
1, 14 5
49%
117
59
10 3 %
22
- 58
- 72%
1
0
38%
9
8
12 3 1%
SAUDI ARABIA
1, 0 3 5
266
35%
330
-4
- 1%
46
- 67
- 59%
5
1
20%
97
33
53%
SOUTH KOREA
3
-1
- 28%
12 1
- 10
- 7%
15
14
14 0 1%
2
-5
- 72%
90
- 74
- 45%
IRAN
2,580
- 2 , 4 19
- 48%
0
0
0%
42
42
-
0
- 261
- 10 0 %
ABU DHABI
2 , 18 8
- 95
- 4%
16
9
119 %
12
11
12 2 1%
0
2
0
29%
65
65
14 7 2 8 3 %
39
- 11
- 23%
0
0
0%
0
-2
- 98%
111
- 12 9
- 54%
32
- 47
- 60%
4
- 24
- 87%
0
0
0%
0
0
0%
78
78
-
- 17
- 10 0 %
4
-8
- 65%
118
96
439%
87
14
18 %
0
-1
- 90%
23
2
7%
15
2
12 %
7
0
3%
44,430
13 , 3 6 6
43%
1, 7 13
220
15 %
1, 9 2 6
- 2 , 0 14
- 5 1%
78
2
2%
579
- 65
- 10 %
73
- 595
- 89%
1, 2 0 9
- 72
- 6%
867
- 65
- 7%
21
12
15 1%
19 9
- 28
- 12 %
759
72
10 %
82
52
17 2 %
UNITED KINGDOM
QATAR
TAIWAN
SOUTH AFRICA
VIETNAM
Middle East
SE Asia
40
Rack
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
44
- 10 0 %
28
18 2 %
- 95
- 10 0 %
18
6
46%
13
- 50
- 80%
0
Appendix 3 – Live sheep exports
Table 6
Calendar year live sheep exports
Country
2004
Argentina
Bahrain
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Brazil
Chile
China
Indonesia
Israel
Japan
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
Malaysia
Marshall Islands
Mauritius
Mexico
New Zealand
Norfolk Island
Oman
Philippines
Qatar
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
South Africa
Switzerland
Taiwan
Thailand
Turkey
UAE
Uruguay
USA
Vietnam
7,014
490,210
TOTAL VOLUME
TOTAL VALUE
Source: ABS
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
521,455
556,843
2
561,522
66
716,040
11
747,827
135
28
13
974
2,879
1,792
3,800
5,000
156
28
4
62
35,000
23,400
68
470,511
42,000
9
265,986
56,600
64,007
54,164
217,067
327,960
287,792
948,271
1,076,455
956,642
706,644
726,809
20,588
75,026
19,000
15,903
18,864
24,385
150
70
1,300
32,189
930,343
1,259,904
20,711
21,167
67
4
289,170
137,406
67
8,948
2011
2012
498,731
37,000
4
5
344,450
10,000
10
11
26
249,741
2013*
884,886
219
890,545
267,829
36,834
276
383,943
962,163
930,178
956,276
19,705
16,675
21,452
81
49
2,056
23
414
6
358,972
37
179,885
320,030
80
191,669
1,072,089
15,530
1,193,635
9,292
539,556
876
191,850
66
1,032,395
6,006
25,076
26,128
140
390
5
38
11
12
19,840
245
684,940
500
2010
3,517
11
1
741,106
231
269,116
10
12
17
58
289,223
891
352,695
69,073
18
321,415
41,025
260
395,752
19,892
6,877
531,894
873,937
8,761
576,147
7,637
262,500
7,401
24,000
6,399
69,000
3,933
3
130,312
6
215,038
78,747
4
2
352,352
37,385
245,147
33,211
10
13
1
48,476
497,241
4,615
31
57
270
196,095
11
230,775
209,373
1
15
185,754
19
10
175,629
43
120
94,795
4
2
30
3,397,140
4,184,920
4,167,034
3,773,029
4,214,989
3,567,609
2,968,571
2,457,948
2,278,616
1,741,939
$228,959,769
$280,582,589
$293,445,862
$262,055,133
$321,157,801
$322,960,587
$322,527,205
$328,103,448
$279,748,762
$155,183,732
*=January to November
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
41
Sources and acknowledgements
This document was produced and compiled by Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA),
with the help of industry participants in the annual cattle projections workshop.
Baseline forecasts were also provided by the Centre for International Economics’
Global Meat Industries (GMI) model.
The sources listed below are also duly acknowledged for the provision of
statistical, analytical and forecast information used in this document.
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and
Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)
Infoscan NZ
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Australian Wool Exchange (AWEX)
Millward Brown
Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC)
Nielsen Homescan
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
Roy Morgan
Beef + Lamb New Zealand
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Centre for International Economics (CIE)
Weeks Consulting Services
Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
World Bank
Department of Agriculture (DA), Australia
Eurostat
42
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
Acronyms
ABARES
–
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource
IMF
–
International Monetary Fund
Economics and Sciences
lb
–
Pounds weight
ABS
–
Australian Bureau of Statistics
lwt
–
Liveweight
AWPFC
–
Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee
MLA
–
Meat & Livestock Australia
CIE
–
Centre for International Economics
NLRS
–
National Livestock Reporting Service (Meat & Livestock Australia)
CIS
–
Commonwealth of Independent States
NZ
–
New Zealand
cwt
–
Carcase weight
PNG
–
Papua New Guinea
DA
–
Department of Agriculture – Australia
swt
–
Shipped weight
EMI
–
Eastern Market Indicator (wool price)
UAE
–
United Arab Emirates
EU
–
European Union
UK
–
United Kingdom
FAO
–
Food and Agriculture Organisation
US
–
United States
FOB
–
Free on board ship (export price loaded on ship before departure)
USDA
–
United States Department of Agriculture
FTA
–
Free Trade Agreement
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
43
Notes
44
MLA’s Market Information Service – Australian sheep industry projections 2014
Meat & Livestock Australia
Level 1, 40 Mount St
North Sydney NSW 2060
Phone: 02 9463 9333
Fax: 02 9463 9393
Free call: 1800 023 100 (Australia only)
Email: [email protected]
www.mla.com.au