Greenland Barnacle Geese in the British Isles M . A . O G I L V I E AND H . B O Y D Introduction T here are tw o populations o f B arnacle Geese B ranta leucopsis wintering in the British Isles. The sm aller one, breeding in Svalbard (Spitsbergen) and wintering exclusively in the Solway Firth, has been m onitored closely for m any years (R oberts, 1966; Ogilvie, 1970; Owen & C am pbell, 1974). T his paper con cerns itself with the other, larger population, which breeds in E ast G reenland and in winter is found alm ost exclusively on islands off the w est and no rth coasts o f Ireland and Scotland. The virtually com plete separation o f the tw o populations from each other and from a third which breeds in arctic U SSR and w inters in the N etherlands has been show n by extensive ringing (Boyd, 1964; L arsen & N orderhaug, 1964; Salom onsen, 1967). The Wildfowl T ru st has been m onitoring the G reenland B arnacle G eese in w inter since 1957, by m eans o f occasional aerial surveys, the m ajority over the whole range, and by regular counts on the island o f Islay in the In n e r H e b rid e s th a t have also in clu d ed assessm ents o f annual breeding success. Islay holds a considerable m ajority o f the total pop ulation. Virtually the only other w ork on the p o p u latio n h as been by C a b o t on th e Inishkeas, the m ost im portant Irish haunts, which he has visited alm ost annually since 1960 (C abot & W est, 1973). H e has been concerned with the population dynam ics o f the 2 ,0 0 0 -2 ,5 0 0 b ird s w in terin g on th e islands and with looking for factors which m ay affect th e ir use o f th e isla n d s and breeding success, and is continuing a study o f feeding ecology. C ensusing a population o f birds which winters on nearly 200 rem ote islands (m ostly now uninhabited by m an) scattered from C ounty K erry to Sutherland m ust present certain p ro b lem s. T h e o n ly s a tisfa c to ry m ethod is counting from the air. Aerial su r veys for goose counting were first undertaken in B ritain on a re g u la r b asis in 1957. A lthough the technique is well know n, there are a num ber o f difficulties inherent in flying off the west coast o f the British Isles. Airfields with fuel are few and survey routes have to be planned accordingly. The w eather, w hich arrives there less well-heralded th an further east in the country, often causes tiresom e delays. T o these logistical item s m ust be added the problem s o f locating and counting the birds. Boyd (1968) gave a full account o f the techniques involved and som e o f the difficulties and pitfalls encountered. It is sufficient here to state th a t a light aircraft is used, flying at about 140 k m /h r and at 15 0 -20 0 m etres above the sea. O ne or two observers are carried in addition to a pilotobserver. Photographs o f flocks are obtained where practicable but are n o t relied on, as visual counting by experienced observers has been found to be as accu rate as and m ore reliable than photographs, w hich m ust often be taken in very p o o r light. Largely because o f expense, aerial surveys o f B arnacle Geese have been neither regular nor frequent. Partial or com plete surveys were carried out in 1957, 1959 (two), 1961, 1962, 1965, 1966 and 1973. Those in 1957 and 1965 were restricted to the Scottish part o f the range and in M arch 1959 only Ireland w as covered and then n o t com pletely. Boyd (1968) gave the results for the Scottish range o f the first six surveys b u t did not report on the Irish figures in any detail. C ab o t & W est (1973) reviewed the Irish results (though excluding M arch 1959), in th e context o f the study o f the birds on the Inishkeas. This paper gives the full results o f the 1973 survey and com pares them with the results o f all the previous surveys. B arnacle G eese know nothing o f boun daries between countries and draw no distinc tion between Ireland and Scotland. H ow ever in this paper the tw o countries will be separated if only because their current shooting and conservation arrangem ents are different, and future steps m ay be taken on a national not international basis. Aerial survey results In the course o f the eight aerial surveys B ar nacle G eese have been found on a total o f 169 islands and (in a few cases) headlands. C abot & W est (1973) list a further 23 Irish sites w here B arnacle G eese have been recorded at some tim e though none were present during any o f the surveys. In som e o f the archi pelagos in both Ireland and Scotland the geese alm ost certainly use all the suitable islands at som e time although actual sightings have not been recorded. This will be true, for example, in the Sound o f H arris, between H arris and N orth U ist, w here B arnacle Geese 139 140 M. A. Ogilvie an d H. B oyd have been recorded from 20 islands during the aerial surveys b u t could be expected on vir tually all the 5 0 -6 0 islands (the exact num ber depends on definition) in the Sound. A com plete tabulation o f the survey results has been deposited at the Wildfowl T rust. In any discussion o f the figures, however, and es pecially in m aking com parisons between the years, it is m ore meaningful to group the islands according to an, inevitably som ew hat subjective, assessm ent o f how m uch, o r how little, the geese move around during the course o f a w inter. F o r example, whereas there can be no justification for splitting the Blasket Islands, C o. K erry, into the five con s titu e n t is la n d s , n o n e m o re th a n fo u r kilom etres from the next and only tw o o f w hich have held geese at the tim es o f the su r veys, it does seem right to treat them separate ly from the next nearest haunt, the M agheree Islands, 43 kilom etres to the north-east. T he m ap (Figure 1) show s the groupings, while the survey results are given in T able 1. T he m ajority o f the individual sites group them selves conveniently but in som e areas there m ay be a whole chain o f islands stretching over 60 o r 70 kilometres. In these cases an arb itra ry 10 km h as been chosen as Figure 1. Map showing groupings of Barnacle Goose haunts. Numbering as in Table 1. 141 Barnacle Goose survey Table 1. The numbers of Barnacle Geese Branta leucopsis counted during aerial surveys, 1957-1973 Figures in brackets represent interpolated means of other counts for that site or group. No inter polations have been attempted for the February 1957 and March 1959 censuses or for the in dividual sites or groups in Ireland in March 1965 (see text). R eg io n (see T a b le 4 ) N o . on m ap (F ig u re 1) E a st C o a s t K e r r y - C la r c G a lw a y - S . M a y o W . an d N . M a y o Sligo D o n eg al Islay In n e r H eb rid es In n e r H e b rid es O u te r H e b rid es N . a n d W . c o a s ts N o . o f sites w ith g eese in g ro u p I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 L a m b a y Is. W ex fo rd S lobs B laskets M ag h ere e Is. Illau n ea ro n M u tto n Is. M a c D a ra ’s Is. H igh Is. In ish b ro o n In ish d alla C lew B ay In ishgallon D uvillaun Inish k e as Inish k e era g h K id Is. L issadell Inish d u ff R a th lin T o ra y la y d o n In ish d o o ey C lo n m a ss G la sh e d y Is. T O T A L IR E L A N D 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 8 1 6 3 1 4 2 4 6 5 2 1 5 8 1 4 69 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 Islay T ro d d a y B ro sd a le Is. E n . M o r(K in ty re ) E n . M o r (Ju ra) O ro n sa y Soa T re sh n ish Tiree M uck B a rra S o u n d o f B a rra S o u th U ist M onachs S o u n d o f H a rris T a ra n s a y G ask e ir S h ian ts L. R o a g L. E riso rt Isay A sc rib s T ro d d a y Longa F o u ra S u m m er Is. A . C hleit C h ro n a R o in M o r H o a n Is. R a b b it Is. TOTA L SCOTLAND (excluding Islay) TOTAL SCOTLAND 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 5 3 1 11 6 1 3 20 2 1 3 2 2 4 3 4 i GRA N D TOTAL 169 1 6 2 4 2 2 3 F eb 1957 D ec 1959 M ar 1961 A pr 1962 M ar 1965 12 0 0 6 0 190 40 160 53 50 30 1200 10 240 363 0 10 90 2 10 0 107 2771 85 34 0 2 80 0 140 0 51 150 0 157 2300' 153 152 2 30 0 0 130 247 50 5 4164 0 0 90 265 0 213 0 86 85 0 23 2500' 188 76 304 35 (2 0 ) 182 309 45 3 4424 (4 0 9 5 ) 2800 0 140 0 10 0 0 299 25 0 49 86 110 480 174 15 110 29 0 0 0 130 0 60 56 0 73 37 172 21 (214) (199) 2750 5500 18 107 14 4 0 0 470 3 80 0 142 452 2 50 5 19 599 120 10 214 0 0 140 122 108 15 0 0 33 100 64 180 179 4240 4800 0 124 44 0 230 0 3 90 4 84 2 171 415 0 8 60 49 8 7 70 317 0 32 39 5 204 47 20 11 57 0 9 0 24 4 135 4766 (8 3 0 0 )2 (3) (76) (67) (6) (51) (17) 51 0 (301) (5) 28 9 39 2 23 75 0 4 93 0 140 450 52 0 420 308 264 5 0 (74) (26) (92) (58) (214) (199) 5285 M ar 1966 M ar 1973 20 0 60 320 0 411 0 90 0 40 156 2600' 40 42 3 70 18 0 2 62 195 80 14 4718 45 2 0 0 0 480 43 53 20 4 0 0 145 1980' 240 164 2 10 45 70 395 282 0 2 20 4398 0 0 106 40 40 160 0 90 1600 190 30 0 71 2327 3000 0 38 35 0 16 5 317 420 19 223 238 20 0 33 0 4 90 201 41 303 37 0 151 193 182 38 21 95 52 121 0 3766 100 M ar 1959 6766 2800' 8500 0 45 196 16 18 61 795 354 (5) 4 43 3 60 0 1035 575 120 122 483 19 6 © oo Skye S ite o r g ro u p ed sites 272 236 0 0 146 33 55 74 425 130 6579 15000 0 0 110 (6) 40 35 4 19 143 (5) 80 3 36 0 6 40 9 80 125 0 450 0 0 297 132 143 (22) (5) (74) 0 96 190 6 35 0 4684 5550 9740 9566 12396 15079 19684 8321 13904 13990 17680 19802 24 0 8 2 N o te s. !. W e h a v e follow ed C a b o t & W e st (1 9 7 3 ) in u sing g ro u n d c o u n ts o f geese o n th e In ish k e a s fo r th e la st f o u r Irish su rv e y s. T h e y w ere g e nerally m ade w ith in a m o n th o f th e a e ria l cen su s, a n d th e ir in c re a se d a c c u ra c y o v er aerial c o u n ts is th o u g h t to o utw eigh th e d a n g e r o f m o v e m e n ts h a v in g ta k e n p lace in th e interv al. 2. T h is in te rp o la te d figure fo r Islay is th e m ea n o f tw o g ro u n d c o u n ts m a d e o n th e island th a t w inter. 142 M. A. Ogilvie and H. Boyd the dividing distance. This brings the num ber o f grouped haunts to 23 in Ireland and 31 in Scotland, a total o f 54. The table also shows how m any individual sites go to m ake up each group. The nam es used in the table are o f the largest or m ost im p o rtan t site in each group, if there is no convenient accepted geographical nam e for the latter. Som e attem pt has been m ade in Table 1 to com pensate for gaps in the surveys. Some Scottish haunts w ere om itted from the sur veys in 1959 (D ecem ber), 1965 and 1973, due to lack o f time, or to bad w eather. By averaging the existing counts for these haunts and interpolating the average figure into each survey a m ore realistic total is arrived at. Only in 1965 is the added figure m ore than a few hundreds and then only because an estim ated total for Ireland (not covered th a t year) has b een g iv e n . E s tim a te s h a v e n o t b een attem pted for the first survey carried out in each country (F eb ru ary 1957 in Scotland and M arch 1959 in Ireland) which were to some extent exploratory, and for which interpola tion is im practicable due to the lack o f antece dent counts from m ost sites. Because the num ber o f geese present on Islay com pletely dom inates the totals, a separate total, excluding Islay, has also been given for each survey. These show th a t there was a virtual doubling o f the num bers o f geese between D ecem ber 1959 and M arch 1966 at a rate only slightly exceeded by w hat w as happening on Islay. Between M arch 1966 and M arch 1973, however, num bers aw ay from Islay dropped slightly, back to the level of M arch 1965, while the num bers on Islay n ear ly doubled again. Indeed, other counts on Islay, both before and since the M arch 1973 count, have produced even high num bers, up to 19,400. T here is not a great deal o f pattern in the changes th a t have occurred at other haunts in the 1966—1973 period though in the 13 haunts averaging over 250 geese, num bers have declined at ten and increased at only four. The big questions th a t need answering are: to w hat extent have birds deserted other haunts in favour o f Islay; and how m uch is due to special factors operating at Islay alone? It is doubtful w hether exact (or indeed any) answ ers can be given but som e o f the evidence can at least be examined. O ur knowledge o f changes in farm ing and other hum an uses, o r o f natural causes such as plant succession, o r loss o f tu rf in storm s, that might affect the num bers o f geese on the rem o te isla n d s fre q u en te d by th em , is fragm entary. O nly in one case is there an ob vious reason why B arnacle G eese have com pletely deserted a locality. A rocket range was constructed in 1961 on the m achair beside Loch Bee, South U ist, and the flock o f up to 250 B arnacle G eese th at used to w inter there prom ptly, and n o t surprisingly, went elsewhere. The next nearest h aunt to Loch Bee is the M onach Islands off the w est coast, where there w as an increase o f the right order by the time o f the next survey. N um bers con tinued to increase on the M onachs up to April 1966. In D ecem ber 1966 the islands were declared a N ational N atu re Reserve, prim ari ly for the geese. The latter appear to have repaid this gesture by a large drop in num bers by 1973. The islands are not w ardened and rarely visited in the winter m onths and there do not appear to be any reliable counts between 1966 and 1973. O ther increases or decreases can readily be found in Table 1 but in no case are there easy answ ers to the ques tion of why the num bers have changed. An alteration in the num ber o f shooting parties, disturbance by fishermen, changes in the num bers o f sheep being grazed, are all possi ble factors th at com e to mind, and for none of them does any rem otely useful or precise in form ation exist. T able 2a sets out the percentage o f in dividual sites counted in each survey which actually held geese. These show an increase to a peak in 1962, then a decline o f 6% by 1966 and a further decline o f 10% in 1973. The pic ture for the tw o countries is m uch the same. The usage o f grouped sites (Table 2b) has sh o w n m o re flu c tu a tio n th a n c h a n g e ; although 1973 w as 9% below 1966 it was only back to the level o f earlier years. The drop from 1966 to 1973 w as m uch m ore pronounced in Scotland th an in Ireland. Both tables show a decrease between 1966 and 1973 th at parallels the overall decline in num bers o f geese elsewhere th an on Islay, reinforcing the suggestion th at the great in crease on Islay since 1966 has been at the expense of other individual sites. F urther sur veys are needed to see w hether these losses will becom e perm anent. A nother possibility th at would lead to a reduction in the num ber o f sites being used is if the birds are changing their flocking habits. A ny tendency to concentrate in fewer larger flocks would have the sam e effect on site use. A w ay from Islay, the geese occur in a great m any very sm all flocks. Table 3 show s the counts from the five com plete surveys broken down by flock size and expressed as percen tages o f the total num ber o f flocks. N early one-third o f all flocks were under 50 birds, while only about a qu arter were over 250. These figures exclude Islay. They have been calculated for the grouped sites as show n in Barnacle Goose survey 143 Table 2. The percentage use by Barnacle Geese Branta leucopsis of Individual and grouped sites, 1957—1973 (a) Use o f individual sites N u m b e r o f sites u sed a t e a c h cen su s T o ta l n u m b e r o f sites u sed , 1 9 5 7 -1 9 7 3 C o u n try Ire la n d S c o tla n d T o ta l T o ta l o f sites c o u n te d in e a c h c e n su s T o ta l N o . o f sites used, 1 9 5 7 -1 9 7 3 Sep 1957 M ar 1959 D ec 1959 69 102 171 32 42 37 53 37 57 52 32 40 49 97 44 164 169 52 M ar 1961 A pr 1962 x M ar 1965 M ar 1966 M ar 1973 55 55 55 48 49 49 43 56 164 69 167 160 37 39 (b) Use o f grouped sites N in n i v i ' n i ' ¿ r o u p e d s ite s u s e d a t e a c h c c n s u s T o t a l n u m b e r o f g r o u p e d s it e s u s e d . 1 9 5 7 Irelan d S c o tla n d T o ta l T o ta l o f g ro u p e d sites c o u n te d in e a c h c e n su s T o ta l N o . o f g ro u p e d sites u sed, 1 9 5 7 -1 9 7 3 S ep 1957 23 31 54 86 86 29 Table 1. If the actual counts recorded for each individual site are used in place o f class frequencies, we find th at ju s t over 50% o f flocks are under 50. T hough the proportion o f flocks over 250 has risen from 14% in 1959 and 19% in 1961 to 37% in 1966 and 32% in 1973, no statistically significant changes in relative frequency o f flock sizes have occurred. M ean flock size is also show n in Table 3. There w as virtually no change between 1966 and 1973 but both are considerably higher than the three earlier years. R egional changes If overall changes in use o f sites and flock size are not easy to find, changes in regional dis tribution are a little m ore obvious. The d ata from Table 1 have been lum ped into five Irish 1973t M ar 1959 D ec 1959 M ar 1961 A pr 1962 M ar 1965 M ar 1966 85 85 76 69 72 71 77 75 71 74 73 81 81 76 87 82 74 73 73 13 50 52 52 16 51 49 and five Scottish regional groupings. The dividing lines are show n in Figure 1. Islay is considered on its own. O therw ise the groupings are by fairly n atural boundaries with distances in excess o f 30 km between the nearest haunts in adjacent regions. The resulting regional totals are show n in Table 4, while Figure 2 uses the sam e d ata expressed as percentages o f the earliest survey total for each region. A p art from the dom inating position of Islay, the other regions show some interesting changes. Excluding the hardly represented east coast o f Ireland, num bers in the other eight regions fluctuated som ew hat between the early surveys b u t all showed a rise between 1962 and 1966 so th a t by the latter survey all were above their starting level, in some cases considerably so. This trend was noticeably reversed between 1966 and 1973, six regions dropping in num bers and two Table 3. Percentage distribution of flock sizes per grouped sites of Barnacle Geese Branta leucopsis, 1957—1973. The figures exclude Islay. Flock size Dec 1959 Mar 1961 Apr 1962 Mar 1966 Mar 1973 All 1-50 51-100 101-250 251-500 over 500 No. of flocks Mean flock size 37 17 32 11 3 35 146 23 11 47 11 8 38 222 31 16 24 24 5 38 187 29 15 19 27 10 41 250 26 11 31 23 9 35 252 30 14 30 19 7 187 235 M. A . Ogilvie and H. Boyd lg below their datum , is notew orthy and rath er encouraging the furthest p a rt o f the range, K errye, has show n an increase, albeit a small If the southernm ost tw o Irish regions are :d together there has been a slight overall increase, though with a rath er large drop from the peak o f 1966. Sligo—D onegal gained from 1966 to 1973 and the central p a rt o f the Irish range declined. H owever, it does appear th at despite a w ithdraw al from the W exford Slobs during the 1950s, the population is not con- 500 450 400 350 300- 250 200 150' 100 • 50- 0 .9 5 7 ' ' 195-5 ' 1 9 6 1 ’ 19 6 ¿ ' ' 1965' 1966 ' ' ' 197? Figi e 2. Regional totals of Barnacle Geese expressed as percentages of earliest survey total for each n. 145 Barnacle Goose survey Table 4. Regional distribution o f Barnacle Geese Branta leucopsis, 1957—1973 Region Feb 1957 E. coast Kerry-Clare Galway—S. Mayo W. and N. Mayo Sligo—Donegal Islay Inner Hebrides Outer Hebrides Skye W. and N. coasts 3000 850 2063 526 327' Total 6166' Mar 1959 346 1880' 1011 2771' Dec 1959 Mar 1961 Apr 1962 18 493 1480 780 2800 474 1314 190 772 399 341 2762 662 5500 993 2306 370 571 355^ 384 1 2787 [ 89 8 / 4800 1274 2370 646 476 8321 13904 13990 Mar 1966 Mar 1973 mean 8300 1036 2589 992 668 ( 400 I 541 \ 2838 I 939 8500 1670 3163 888 863 47 480 120 2529 1222 15000 758 2611 572 743 47 330 371 2479 900 6843 1008 2343 598 682 17680 19802 24082 16297 Mar 1965 40Q5 1 Incomplete, and excluded from calculation of means. tra d in g its range in response to the o pportuni ty o f exploiting o f apparently b etter wintering conditions further north on Islay. N um bers in Ireland as a w hole have not changed very m uch over the period 1961 to 1973 after an initial increase from the first com plete survey in N ovem ber 1959. The total fo r S co tlan d , ex clu d in g Isla y , w as very sim ilar to th at for Ireland for the N ovem ber 1959, 1961 and 1963 surveys, leaped ahead in 1966 but dropped back to only ju s t above the Irish figure in 1973. The recent decline was fairly evenly spread between all four regions, with the largest d ro p both p ro p o r tio n a te ly a n d a b s o lu te ly in th e In n e r H ebrides, the area nearest to Islay. The area further aw ay from Islay, the w est and north coasts o f the m ainland, show ed the least decline. T able 5 shows the percentage distribution of the geese betw een th e regions for each com plete survey. A lthough Islay has alw ays been the largest single com ponent o f the whole, it is only since 1966 th a t it has becom e com pletely dom inating, holding at the time o f the 1973 census no less th an 62% o f the entire p opula tion. The other regions have declined acco r dingly, with Ireland and th e rest o f Scotland, form erly holding roughly one-third apiece, now dow n to a b o u t one-fifth. Discussion T here is no doubt th at the censuses since 1957 o f G reenland B arnacle G eese wintering in the British Isles have revealed a substantial in crease in total num bers. H igher counts on Islay since the last com plete census (the latest being 19,400 in N ovem ber 1974) suggest th a t the overall increase is being m aintained. W hat is less satisfactory is the continuing concen tration o f the geese on to Islay. D espite the Table 5. Percentage distribution of Barnacle Geese Branta leucopsis by regions, 1959-1973. Region Dec 1959 Mar 1961 Apr 1962 Mar 1966 Mar 1973 mean E. coast Kerry-Clare Galway—S. Mayo W. and N. Mayo Sligo-Donegal Islay Inner Hebrides Outer Hebrides Skye W. and N. coasts Ireland Scotland, excl. Islay 0 <1 6 18 9 34 6 16 2 9 0 3 2 20 5 40 7 16 3 4 0 3 3 20 6 34 9 17 5 3 0 2 3 14 5 43 8 16 5 4 <1 2 2 17 6 43 6 15 4 5 33 30 32 24 33 30 34 33 <1 2 1 10 5 62 4 11 2 3 18 20 27 30 146 M. A. Ogilvie and H. Boyd m itigating discovery th a t the range is not also contracting, it m ust be a m atter for concern th at so large a proportion o f a relatively small population o f birds is to be found in ju s t one haunt. A part from the danger o f some natural or m an-induced calam ity destroying the birds or their habitat, there is an increasing am ount o f conflict w ith agriculture on the island. T he m ajo r landow ners are on the whole favourably disposed to w ard s the geese but som e o f their ten an t farm ers are un d erstan dably getting m ore and m ore worried. Some small-scale experim ents to assess the effects of the grazing by the geese are under w ay and there has been an increase in the am ount of deliberate scaring o n a few farm s. C ontrol m easures, though o f an unspecified nature, have been advocated, presenting the co nserva tion bodies, both statu to ry and non-statutory, with the m ajor problem o f reconciling the in terests o f farm ing w ith the wellbeing o f such an im portant flock o f geese. A detailed account of the num bers o f B arnacle G eese on Islay in the last tw enty years is in preparation, together w ith an analysis o f the annual breeding data. A s has earlier been stated, we have lam en tably little inform ation th a t can help us answ er the question o f w hy the B arnacle G eese are concentrating on Islay. A p art from possible changes in farm ing practice already m entioned, there are the potential effects o f shooting. The species w as given full p rotec tion in Ireland in 1962, but few o f the birds in th a t country were ever accessible to heavy shooting pressure and it seems unlikely th a t the change in the law has had a significant effect. A fter being given full protection in Scotland in the 1954 P rotection o f Birds A ct, a relaxation w as m ade the following year allowing a tw o-m onth shooting season from 1st D ecem ber to 3 1st Jan u ary on islands to the west o f longitude 5°W. This effectively covers all haunts o f the G reenland B arnacle G oose in Scotland except for a handful on the north coast o f Sutherland. A gain it seems doubtful w hether there has been any m ajor change in the am o u n t o f shooting, or at any rate sufficient to pro d u ce the concentration o f birds on Islay. Shooting on th a t island is not heavy, being controlled by the few large estates. If we cannot explain w hat has happened in the past, perhaps it is still pertinent to look into the future. It seem s clear th a t although there is probably still room for further in crease on Islay, scaring and shooting there will also increase, leading to a levelling off o f the num bers if not an actual decline. W hat is therefore needed w ould seem to be som e w ay o f im proving the situation for the geese elsewhere th an on Islay, to encourage the birds to m aintain their num bers on the m any other haunts, o r better still to increase them . It is easier to say this than to decide w hat m easures could be taken but they might in clude statutory protection on the m ore im por tan t Scottish haunts, though the effect o f declaring the M onachs a N atio n al N ature Reserve is disappointing, coupled with the en couragem ent o f continued grazing o f the islands by sheep to help m aintain suitable feeding sw ards for the geese. A dditionally, future oil exploration off w estern Scotland and any associated industrialization m ust be carefully w atched to minimize adverse effects on the geese. U nfortunately the kinds o f research th a t w ould be needed to discover som e o f the basic facts about w hy the geese are m oving to Islay and how to persuade them to m ove aw ay again would be very expensive. Even the minim um m onitoring o f a com plete census has only been afforded at ever longer inter vals. R egular co u n ts on Islay are relatively cheap and are continuing, b u t the census results show clearly th a t the relationship between the Islay situation and w hat is happening over the rest o f the range is a steadily changing one and predictions o f the latter based on the form er m ust be regarded with due care. It is to be hoped th a t if further m ajor changes take place in the num bers of geese on Islay, in w hichever direction, the consequent need to look again at the overall picture will be recognized. Acknowledgements The censuses were carried out while one or both of the authors were employed by the Wildfowl Trust and funded by grants or contracts with the Nature Conservancy Council and the Natural Environ ment Research Council. The 1973 census was ad ditionally supported by a grant from the Irish Department of Lands. We cannot overemphasize the part played by the pilots in these aerial censuses. Dr S. K. Eltringham and Mr A. Wingnall flew the aircraft in 1958 and 1959, but it is to Mr J. D. H. Radford that the prin cipal th ank s are due p articu larly for his simultaneous application of the skills of piloting the aircraft, counting the geese and photographing them, all done in flying conditions that were often less than perfect. Dr D. B. Cabot acted as an observer for one of the Hebridean and several of the Irish surveys and Mr O. J. Merne for one of the latter. Barnacle Goose survey Sum m ary Aerial censuses of the Greenland population of the Barnacle Goose Branta leucopsis wintering mostly on islands of the west and north coasts of Ireland and Scotland revealed an increase from 8,321 in December 1959 to 24,100 in March 1973. 147 Simultaneously the proportion o f the total wintering on the main haunt o f Islay has risen from 34% to 62%. Changes in the use of sites and in the size of flocks are discussed in relation to the in creasing importance of Islay. The conservation im plications of this latter factor are reviewed. References Boyd, H. 1964. Barnacle Geese caught in Dumfriesshire in February 1963. Wildfowl Trust Ann. Rep. 15: 75-76. Boyd, H. 1968. Barnacle Geese in the west of Scotland, 1957-67. Wildfowl 19: 96-107. Cabot, D. & West, B. 1973. Population dynamics of Barnacle Geese, Branta leucopsis, in Ireland. Proc. Roy. Irish Acad. Vol. 73, Sec. B: 415—43. Larsen, T. & Norderhaug, M. 1964. Resultater av kvitkinngasmerkinger pa Svalbard. Sterna 6: 153-68. Ogilvie, M. A. 1970. The status of wild geese in Britain and Ireland. Pp. 249-57 in The New Wildfowler in the 1970’s, ed. N. M. Sedgwick et al. London: Barrie and Jenkin. Owen, N. & Campbell, C. R. G. 1974. Recent studies on Barnacle Geese at Caerlaverock. Scot. Birds, 8: 181-93. M. A. Ogilvie, Wildfowl Trust, Slimbridge, Gloucester, GL2 7BT, England. H. Boyd, Canadian Wildlife Service, Eastern Region, 2721 Highway 31, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A OH3, Canada. Plumed or Eyton’s Whistling Ducks Dendrocygna eytoni at Slimbridge (Joe Blossom).
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