Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 313 15 Getting Incentives Right: Lessons for Business, Sports, Politics, and Life CHAPTER OUTLINE Lesson One: You Get What You Pay For Lesson Two: Tie Pay to Performance to Reduce Risk N Lesson Three: Money Isn’t Everything Takeaway BA basketball player Tim Hardaway was promised a big bonus if he made a lot of assists.The incentive plan worked. Hardaway passed the ball a lot, especially toward the end of the season when it looked like he might not make his bonus. But did the team owners encourage the right thing? Hardaway later admitted that to get his bonus he had sometimes passed even when he should have shot the ball. Incentives matter—this is one of the key lessons of this book—but getting the incentives right is not always easy. Managers of businesses and sports teams, voters, politicians, parents, all must think about and choose incentives. This chapter is all about getting the incentives right and what happens when we get the incentives wrong. Lesson One: You Get What You Pay For Every May, Chicago public school students take a standardized test. Students are used to being tested, graded, and rewarded accordingly, but beginning in May 1996 teachers and principals had a lot more than usual on the line: Schools with low scores would be closed, teachers reassigned, and principals fired.The idea, of course, was to give educators stronger incentives to work harder and better. If grading was good for the students, why not for the teachers? Stronger incentives do give teachers and principals an incentive to put in extra hours and search for better teaching methods. But how else can teachers raise the grades of their students? Here’s a hint: some students also use this method.That’s right—they cheat. Indeed, teachers can cheat a lot better than students because they know which answers are correct! Two economists who 313 Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 314 © JEFF PARKER, FLORIDA TODAY, AND POLITCALCARTOONS.COM 314 • PA R T 3 • Firms and Factor Markets understand incentives, Brian Jacob and Steven Levitt (the latter of Freakonomics fame), started to look carefully at test data and asked: would teachers really cheat to raise student grades?1 Sure enough, Jacob and Levitt found odd patterns in the data—students who got easy answers wrong and hard answers right, groups of students who had exactly the same right and wrong answers, and students who received high grades during a test year but low grades the year after. Most telling for an economist was that the indicators of cheating were much stronger after the penalty for low-performing schools went into effect than before! Perhaps you think that teachers cheating to raise student grades is a good idea! But it wasn’t what the proponents of strong incentives for teachers had in mind. Not all teachers cheated, but cheating was surprisingly common. Jacob and Levitt estimated that cheating occurred in at least 4 percent to 5 percent of classrooms. Other researchers have found that after the introduction of strong incentives a lot more students are declared learning disabled. 2 Why? Test scores of students called “learning disabled” are usually not counted when it comes to rewarding teachers and principals. Does all this mean that strong incentives for teachers is a bad idea? Not necessarily. Students who learn more, earn more. If strong incentives for teachers do increase true scores, even by a small amount, maybe it’s a good idea even if some of the better scores are due to cheating.3 A similar example of incentives for cheating comes from corporate finance. In the 1980s, chief executive officers (CEOs) were given much stronger incentives to increase their firm’s stock price. Instead of being paid a straight salary, they were awarded stock options.These are complicated financial instruments, but what you need to know is that they pay off only Can Incentives Cheat Death? if the stock rises above a certain price. As In the last week of 1999, New York hospitals reported fewer deaths than with strong incentives for teaching, strong usual.The following week there were more deaths than usual.Why? Could incentives encouraged CEOs to work harder it be that people willed themselves to live to see the dawn of the twentyand smarter. It also encouraged them to first century? cheat by manipulating earnings reports to If death can be postponed for major events, then why not to save on taxes? Two economists,Wojciech Kopczuk and Joel Slemrod found that a $10,000 make their firms appear more profitable reduction in the estate tax can postpone death by about a week! To be fair, than they really were. Enron and the other however, it could also be that the heirs to the inheritance alter death certificates scandals of the 1990s and first decade of the so as to lower their taxes. 2000s were in part the result.Were strong incentives worth it? If the shareholders thought that on average the costs of cheating exceeded the benefits of encouraging harder work, they would offer their CEOs fewer options and other strong incentives. But so far most of these incentives have stayed in place, albeit with more monitoring of potentially bad behavior.* * The shareholders are not the only ones who are harmed when a corporation like Enron collapses so their choice of CEO incentive scheme may not reflect what is best for society as a whole. In Chapter 9, we discussed problems like this, called externality problems, in more detail. Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 315 Getting Incentives Right: Lessons for Business, Sports, Politics, and Life • C H A P T E R 1 5 • 315 When designing an incentive scheme remember this: You get what you pay for.That sounds good but there is a problem.What if what you pay for is not exactly what you want? If you pay for higher test scores, you will get higher test scores. But test scores are an imperfect measure of what you really want— more productive teachers and more knowledgeable students.What you pay for is higher stock prices, but what you really want is a more profitable firm. Usually stock prices reflect a firm’s fundamental value, but even the market can be fooled sometimes! The closer “what you pay for” is to “what you want,” then the more you can rely on strong incentives. Careful design of an incentive scheme can narrow the gap between what you want and what you can pay for. After Jacob and Levitt published their results, the administrators of Chicago Public Schools, to their credit, fired some teachers and instituted new procedures to make cheating more difficult. After the Enron scandal, investors demanded more independent financial audits.The stronger the incentives, the more it pays to invest in careful measurement and auditing, and vice versa. If you can’t bridge the gap between “what you pay for” and “what you want,” then weak incentive schemes can be better than strong incentive schemes. Should the management of prisons be contracted out to the private sector? The owners of a private firm have a strong incentive to cut costs and improve productivity because they get to keep the resulting profits. If a public prison cuts costs, there is more money in the public treasury but no one gets to buy a yacht so the incentive to cut costs is much weaker. In 1985, Kentucky became the first state to contract out a prison to a forprofit firm. Private prisons today hold about 120,000 prisoners in the United States, about 5 percent of all prisoners. Should efficient private prisons replace inefficient public prisons? Three economists—Oliver Hart, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny (HSV)—say no. HSV don’t question that the profit motive gives private prisons stronger incentives than public prisons to cut costs—HSV say that’s the problem! Suppose that we care about costs but we also care about prisoner rehabilitation, civil rights, and low levels of inmate and guard violence. What we pay for is cheap prisons, but what we want is cheap but high quality prisons. If we can’t measure and pay for quality, then strong incentives could encourage cost cutting at the expense of quality. The principle is a general one, a strong incentive scheme that incentivizes the wrong thing can be worse than a weak incentive scheme. One car dealer in California advertises that its sales staff is not paid on commission.4 Why would a store advertise that its sales staff do not have strong incentives to help you? The answer is clear to anyone who has tried to buy a car. High-pressure dealers who pounce on you the moment you enter the showroom and bombard you with high-pressure sales tactics (“I can get you 15 percent off the sticker, but you have to act NOW!”) may sell cars to first-time buyers, but the strategy is too unpleasant to win many repeat customers. Car dealers who rely on repeat business usually prefer a low-pressure, informative sales staff. In theory, a car dealer could have strong incentives and repeat business by paying its sales staff based on their “nice” sales tactics, but in practice it’s too expensive to monitor how salespeople interact with clients. Cheating by the sales staff would be difficult to detect and thus would be common. Paying the COURTESY EVERETT COLLECTION Prisons for Profit? Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 316 316 • PA R T 3 • Firms and Factor Markets sales staff a salary instead of a commission calms them down a bit. Of course, there is a price to be paid for weak incentives. Imagine that Joe’s Honda pays its sales staff on commission while Pete’s Subaru pays its staff a straight salary. Which dealership do you expect to be open late at night and on Sundays? What about prisons? Are HSV correct that weak-incentive public prisons are better than strong incentive private prisons? Not necessarily. HSV assume that cutting quality is the way to cut cost. But sometimes higher quality is also a path to lower costs. Low levels of inmate and guard violence, for example, are likely to reduce costs. And respect for prisoner’s civil rights? That can save on legal bills.When quality and cost cutting go together, a private firm has a strong incentive to increase quality. HSV may also underestimate how well quality can be measured. Measuring output pays off more when incentives are high. Unsurprisingly, therefore, private prison companies and government purchasers have made extensive efforts to measure the quality of private prisons. Finally, don’t forget that weak incentives reduce the incentive to cut costs but they don’t increase the incentive to produce high quality! Public prisons might use their slack budget constraints to offer high-quality rehabilitation programs, or they might instead offer prison guards above-market wages. Which do you think is more likely? Nevertheless, whether HSV are right or wrong about private prisons, their argument is clever.The usual argument against government bureaucracy is that without the profit incentive, public bureaucracies won’t have an incentive to cut costs. HSV suggest this is exactly why public bureaucracies may sometimes be better than private firms.5 Piece Rates vs. Hourly Wages A piece rate is any payment system that pays workers directly for their output. A majority of workers are paid by the hour but a significant number are paid by the piece. An hourly wage pays workers for their inputs (of time); a piece rate pays workers directly for their output. Agricultural workers, for example, are often paid by the number of pieces of fruit or vegetable that they pick. Garment workers are often paid per item completed. Salespeople are often paid in part by the number of sales that they make.When should workers be paid by the hour and when should they be paid by the piece? Piece rates increase the incentive to work hard and can work well when output is easy to measure so “what you pay for” is close to “what you want.” Piece rates are common in agricultural work because it’s easy to measure the number of apples picked and this is close to what the employer wants. Even in agricultural work, however, the employer wants not just apples but ripe and unbruised apples so piece rates usually require some form of quality control. Piece rates do not work well when quality is important but quality control is expensive. In the early days of computing, IBM paid its programmers per line of code. Can you see the problem? When IBM paid by the line, IBM programmers produced lots of code but in their rush to earn more money the programmers often wrote low quality code. IBM’s incentive scheme rewarded what was measurable—lines of code—at the expense of what IBM really wanted but what was difficult to measure, high quality code. IBM quickly stopped paying its workers by the line and switched to hourly wages. Hourly wages reduced the Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 317 Getting Incentives Right: Lessons for Business, Sports, Politics, and Life • C H A P T E R 1 5 • 317 incentive to work hard but hourly wages also reduced the incentive to rush the work before it was ready. The advantage of piece rates is that, if used properly, they can greatly increase productivity. The auto-glass installer Safelite Glass Corporation switched from an hourly wage system to a piece rate in 1994. Safelite was able to handle the quality control issue by linking every job with a worker so that if a quality problem arose, the worker who was responsible for that windshield installation had to fix it on his or her own time. Productivity quickly improved by an astonishing 44 percent.6 About half of the increase in productivity was due to the same workers working harder, including lower absenteeism and fewer sick days, but the other half of the productivity increase was due to another important effect of piece rates. A piece-rate system attracts more productive workers. Consider two firms, one of which pays workers according to a piece rate, the other pays workers an hourly wage. Now consider two workers, one of which can install five windshields a day, the other just three.Which worker will be attracted to which firm? The piece rate firm will attract the more productive worker because piece rates give productive workers a chance to earn more money.The hourly wage plan will attract workers who are relatively less productive or even “lazy.” The differences between workers in productivity can be surprisingly large. One California wine grower switched from paying grape pickers by the hour to paying by the pound. Previously, the firm had paid its workers $6.20 per hour. Under piece rates the average pay was effectively $6.84 per hour, about the same as before, but some workers were making as much as $24.85 an hour. When some workers are more productive than other workers, piece rates will tend to increase inequality in earnings. Under the hourly wage, every grape picker earned $6.20 an hour. Under the piece rate some earned $6.84 while others earned $24.85. Information technology is making it easier to measure the output of all kinds of workers, not just grape pickers. As a result, performance pay (piece rates, commissions, bonuses, and other rewards tied directly to output) is becoming more common in the U.S. economy and this is one important reason why the inequality of earnings has also increased.7 The increase in effective pay under piece rates explains why both firms and employees can benefit from piece rates. Under hourly wages, workers don’t have an incentive to work harder even when they can do so at low cost. Piece rates benefit productive workers by giving them an opportunity to use their skills to make more money. Piece rates also benefit firms by increasing productivity more than wages. Even though firms and workers can both benefit from piece rates, piece rates are sometimes not implemented because of issues of distrust.Workers fear that if they respond to a new piece rate plan by increasing productivity (and thus wages) that the firm will respond by reducing the piece rate in the next period (for example, paying less per pound of grapes picked). In the old Soviet Union, factory managers who increased productivity in response to new incentives were often denounced because their increased performance proved that they had previously been lazy! Of course, this greatly reduced the incentive to increase productivity. Similarly, workers won’t work harder if they expect that Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 318 318 • PA R T 3 • Firms and Factor Markets > Lincoln Electric is a firm famous for using piece rates. Lincoln Electric also has a policy of guaranteed employment. How are these two policies related? > In the United States, restaurant customers have the option of adding a tip to the restaurant bill. In much of Europe, a “tip” is added on automatically. Where would you expect waiters to be more attentive? higher productivity will be punished with lower piece rates. Firms that want to introduce piece rates must build trust with their workers. ▼ CHECK YOURSELF Lesson Two: Tie Pay to Performance to Reduce Risk Consider an auto dealer who wants to motivate her sales staff. Let’s assume that all the auto dealer cares about is sales, so she is not worried that strong incentives will make her sales staff too pushy. Are strong incentives now the best? Maybe not. Auto sales depend on more than hard work. Sales also depend on factors the staff has no control over, such as the price and quality of the car, the price of gas, and the state of the economy. If the sales staff has strong incentives, they are going to do great when the economy is booming but poorly when the economy is in a recession. When sales vary for reasons having little to do with hard work, strong incentives may be more expensive than they are worth. Most people don’t like risk.Which would you prefer, $100 for sure or a gamble that pays $200 with probability 0.5 and $0 with probability 0.5? Gambling in Las Vegas can be fun but most people will prefer $100 for certain over a gamble with the same expected payoff. Similarly, suppose that there are two jobs: Job one pays $100,000 a year for sure, job two pays $200,000 in a good year but just $0 in a bad year. Suppose also that good and bad years are equally likely so, on average, job two also pays $100,000 a year.Which job would you prefer? If the wages are the same on average most people will prefer job one, the less risky job. How high would the average wage have to be for you to prefer job two? $110,000, $150,000, $175,000? The precise number is less important than the principle: the riskier payments are to workers, the more a firm must pay on average.Thus, if a firm’s sales staff has to bear the risk of a bad economy or a low quality car, they will demand a big bonus for every sale. But if staff members demand a big bonus, what is left over for the owner? If the sales staff is sufficiently afraid to face these risks, the owner and the staff might not be able to agree on a mutually profitable strong incentive plan.* Weak incentives insulate the sales staff from risk. If the owner is better able than the sales staff to bear the risk of a recession (perhaps because she is wealthier), weak incentives may be mutually profitable. In essence, the owner can sell the staff “recession insurance” by paying them with a fixed or nearly fixed salary. The sales staff “buy” the insurance by accepting smaller bonuses but of course their pay stream is more stable. Bearing the risk of a recession might be worth it if hard work from the sales force is also the critical factor in sales. But if the state of the economy is a significant determinant of sales, then strong incentives have created risk with very little motivational advantage. Imagine if rewards were based solely on luck—what incentive would there be to exert effort? Similarly, if rewards are mostly based on luck, the incentive to exert effort will be low and many potential employees won’t want to face those risks at a price the owner is willing to pay. * Or worse, the sales staff may be eager to sell cars when the economy is good but the staff may quit the day the economy turns sour. Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 319 Getting Incentives Right: Lessons for Business, Sports, Politics, and Life • C H A P T E R 1 5 • 319 Tournament Theory Improving Executive Compensation with Pay for Relative Performance A good compensation scheme ties rewards to actions that an agent controls. How would you use the idea of pay for relative performance to tie executive pay more closely to actions that executives control? Today, a large fraction of an executive’s pay is tied to the stock price of their firm. When the value of their firm rises, executives are often able to cash in stock options at profitable prices. But many factors other than executive effort or ability influence the price of a stock. When the economy does well, for A tournament is a compensation scheme in which payment is based on relative performance. ALAN SMITH/CSM /LANDOV When sales depend heavily on outside factors such as the state of the economy, tying bonuses to sales will reward or penalize agents for outcomes that are often beyond their control—thus, shifting risk to the agent but giving the agent little incentive to exert effort. One way a manager can reduce an agent’s risk is to tie rewards more closely to actions that a sales agent does control. A surprising way to do this is to pay bonuses based not on a sales agent’s absolute number of sales but on their sales relative to other agents—for example, giving a bonus to the sales agents with the highest, second highest, and third highest sales. For obvious reasons, economists call a compensation scheme in which pay is based on relative performance, a tournament. If they are used cleverly, tournaments can tie rewards more closely to actions that an agent controls, thereby improving productivity and pay.To see how a tournament works in the business world, let’s start with sports, an area where we are all used to thinking about tournaments. Imagine a golf game in which players are paid based on the total number of strokes to finish the course (by the nature of golf, fewer strokes mean better play and thus higher payments). If the weather is bad, scores will be high and agents won’t earn very much even if they work hard. If the weather is good (clear day, no wind), scores will be low and agents will earn a lot even if they don’t work very hard. Either way, when players are paid based on their absolute scores, random forces—such as the weather—will influence how much the players earn. Now imagine that players are playing in a tournament with a fixed number of prizes, which of course is usually the case.The fixed number of prizes means that the players are competing against each other rather than against some external standard of achievement. Since every player plays with the same weather, the weather no longer influences rewards.Thus, a tournament limits the amount of risk from the external environment. A lot of sporting events, not just golf, are organized in the form of tournaments.Tournaments are also common in the business world. For instance, paying sales agents based on relative sales will reduce environment risk, risk from external factors that are common to all the agents.When sales agents are paid based on relative sales, factors that the agents do not control such as the state of the economy, the quality of the product, and the price of competing products will no longer influence agent rewards. Here is the key: When factors that an agent doesn’t control no longer influence rewards, then factors that an agent does control—factors like effort—become more important determinants of rewards.Thus, pay for relative performance such as that used in a tournament can reduce risk and tie rewards more closely to actions that an agent controls.This will mean harder work, less risk, more output, and higher pay. Bonus! Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 320 320 • PA R T 3 • Firms and Factor Markets example, the price of most stocks goes up. Similarly, when the price of oil goes up the stock price of firms in the oil industry tends to go up—and surprisingly so does the pay of executives in the oil industry despite the fact that these executives have no control over the price of oil.8 Of course, when the price of oil falls these executives are paid less despite the fact that they may be working as hard, or harder, than ever.The bottom line is that quite a bit of executive pay appears to be based on luck. But payment based on luck is not a good compensation scheme on either the upside or downside. Is there a better way to pay executives? Instead of paying based on how well their stock performs, how about paying executives based on how well their stock performs relative to other firms in the same industry? If executives were paid based on relative performance, they wouldn’t reap big windfall profits when the industry boomed (due to no virtue of their own) but neither would they necessarily be paid less when the industry declined (due to no fault of their own). Pay for relative performance seems to make a lot of sense but it has not been widely adopted. As a result, some observers suspect that the complicated stock option schemes currently used to reward executives are less about creating incentives than about creative accounting that takes advantage of shareholders who do not closely monitor how much the executives are being paid. Interestingly, firms that have at least one very large shareholder—and thus at least one shareholder with an incentive to monitor the firm closely—do appear to base more executive pay on relative performance.9 Environment Risk and Ability Risk A tournament insulates rewards from risks due to outside factors that are common to all the players but it adds another type of risk called ability risk. Imagine that you had to compete in a golf game against Tiger Woods.Would you put in more effort if you were paid based on the number of strokes or if you were paid based on who wins the game? The probability that you could beat Tiger Woods at golf is so low that if all you cared about was money, it would make sense to give up right away—why exert effort in a hopeless cause? Of course, for the same reason,Tiger Woods won’t need to try very hard either! Remember, an ideal incentive scheme ties rewards to factors that an agent controls, such as effort. But winning at golf takes more than effort, it also takes ability. As far as an agent is concerned someone else’s ability is just like the weather or the state of the economy, it’s not under his control. A golf tournament between players with highly unequal abilities doesn’t tie rewards to effort, it ties rewards to ability and that often causes people to shirk and slack.Thus, tournaments work best when the risk from the outside environment is more important than ability risk. Tournaments can be structured to reduce ability risk. At a professional golf tournament, for example, players play in rounds with the weakest players being eliminated in early rounds so when the final and most important round is played the players have similar abilities. Similarly, tournaments are often split into age classes or experience classes (beginner, intermediate, expert) so that abilities are similar and each player has a strong incentive to work hard. In amateur but serious golf games, when players of different ability compete together, the high ability players will often be handicapped, which makes competition more intense for all the players. A manager who wants a lot of effort will also Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 321 Getting Incentives Right: Lessons for Business, Sports, Politics, and Life • C H A P T E R 1 5 • 321 REPRINTED THROUGH THE COURTESY OF THE EDITORS OF TIME MAGAZINE © 2008 TIME INC. structure tournaments so that rewards are closely tied to effort. A manager, for example, might create junior and senior sales positions with tournaments played within each class of employee. Tournaments in business might seem a bit unusual but they are quite common. About a third of U.S. corporations evaluate employees based on relative performance.10 Under the hard-nosed CEO Jack Welch, managers at General Electric were required to divide employees into three groups—the top 20 percent, the middle 70 percent, and the bottom 10 percent—with the bottom 10 percent often being shown the door. Even when employees are not explicitly rewarded based on relative performance, tournaments are often implicit. Lawyers, for example, compete to earn the prize of becoming a partner. Or becoming the president of a corporation is a lot like winning a tournament. Imagine that a corporation has eight vice presidents and one president—the vice presidents compete to become the next president.The fact that moving up the corporate ladder is like competing in a tournament may also shed some light on the large salaries and perks of many corporate presidents. Personal chefs, corporate jets, and lavish parties might be a sign of the abuse of power but the perks of presidency may also motivate the eight vice presidents. In part, corporate presidents are paid a lot to motivate those beneath them. Tournaments are wonderful at encouraging competition but sometimes competition can be too fierce. In a tournament, when one player falters the others gain, so tournaments can discourage cooperation. One corporate vice president might be unwilling to mentor another if she sees a competitor waiting to take away her job.Thus, as usual, compensation schemes must be carefully designed to balance a variety of goals. Tournaments and Grades Let’s apply some of the insights from tournament theory to a competition that you are very familiar with, the competition for grades. Some professors grade on a curve while others use an absolute scale.When a professor “grades on a curve,” there are a fixed number of “prizes,”As, Bs, Cs, for each class.The competition for grades becomes a tournament. The costs and benefits of being graded on a curve are just like the more general analysis of tournaments. Grading on a curve reduces environment risk but increases ability risk. Can you think of some examples of environment risk? Suppose that your professor is hard to understand—perhaps the professor has an accent or teaches the material too quickly or is simply not a good teacher (unlike us!). Fortunately, if the professor grades on a curve, his or her bad performance doesn’t mean you have to fail. Bad teaching will reduce how much you learn but bad teaching harms everyone’s performance. If the professor grades on a curve, bad teaching need not reduce your grade or reduce your incentive to study. A bad teacher who grades on an absolute scale, however, is double trouble. First, bad teaching means that you won’t learn much. Second, if the grading is on an absolute scale, not learning much means that even if you work hard you will get a low grade.There isn’t much incentive to work hard in that case. Grading on a curve, however, does have disadvantages—grading on a curve means that you will be competing directly with the other students in the class. If you happen to be in a class with a handful of super-brilliant students, it’s like golfing against Tiger Woods (unless you are the academic Tiger Woods). Even if Tournaments can encourage too much competition. Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 322 322 • PA R T 3 • Firms and Factor Markets > At one prominent university, a professor’s first name and middle initial are “Harvey C.” Undergraduates refer to him as “Harvey C-minus” because he is a notoriously hard grader. What are this professor’s incentives to be known as a hard grader? What type of students does he attract? Who does he encourage to stay away? Why might this professor not want to grade on a curve? > How can a tournament create too much competition? Isn’t competition a good thing? ▼ CHECK YOURSELF you learn a lot and work hard, you won’t get a high grade and that reduces your incentive to study. Grading on a curve, therefore, creates better incentives to study when the big risk is that the professor will be bad (an environment risk), but it reduces the incentive to study when students are of very different abilities (ability risk). Grading on an absolute scale creates better incentives to study when students are of very different abilities (ability risk) but reduces the incentive to study when the big risk is that professors will be bad (environment risk). What are some other effects of grading on a curve? Remember, tournaments tend to reduce cooperation. If your professor grades on a curve, other students might be less willing to help you with your homework (or you might be less willing to help them!). Study groups will probably be less common. Some students might even try to sabotage other students.Tournaments can also encourage the wrong kinds of cooperation. If a professor grades on a curve, in theory all the students could get together and agree not to study very much.This probably wouldn’t be a problem in a large class, but if two sales agents regularly compete for the “salesman of the month” award they could collude to reduce effort and rotate the prize between them. Here’s another problem for you to think about. Suppose that the environment risk is not bad professors but rather hard material. Imagine, for example, that some classes are more difficult than other classes (quantum physics 101 vs. handball 101). If you really wanted to learn a little about quantum physics, but you were afraid of reducing your GPA, what type of grading system would you prefer? And to ask the classic economist’s question: under what conditions? See Thinking and Problem Solving question 6 for further discussion of this question. Lesson Three: Money Isn’t Everything Incentives are powerful but not all powerful incentives are for money. If you want to keep business or school club meetings short, make everyone stand until the meeting is over. All of a sudden the cost of talking is higher so people have an incentive to talk less. In addition to money, other powerful rewards include the feeling of identification and belonging that comes from being part of a team, the joy that comes from a job well done, and the status that comes from success on one’s own terms. Intrinsic motivation is when you want to do something simply for feelings of enjoyment and pride. Ideally, firms would like their employees to be motivated by intrinsic rewards like pride in a job well done as well as extrinsic rewards like money. A good manager will get workers to enjoy doing what the manager wants. One way of doing this is to encourage workers to identify with the corporation and its goals in the same way that sports fans identify with their team. Many workers, for example, are given shares of stock in the company they work in. Currently about 20 million American employees own a part of their employers.11 Since most workers don’t have much control over the value of the entire company, this doesn’t make sense as a monetary incentive. But workers are more likely to identify with their company if they are also part owners of their company.Workers who identify with their company see corporate success as their success. Bostonians celebrated when the Red Sox won the World Series Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 323 Getting Incentives Right: Lessons for Business, Sports, Politics, and Life • C H A P T E R 1 5 • 323 even though the fans didn’t receive any monetary rewards. In a company with strong worker identification, high profits are a cause for celebration even if the workers don’t receive raises.Workers who identify with their company are more likely to see themselves in the same boat as other workers and to think and act more like a team or sometimes even like a family.This is also why many companies run staff retreats or invest in a softball team. Successful businesses take great care to create the right corporate culture. Corporate culture is the shared collection of values and norms that govern how people interact in an organization or firm. Sometimes it is said that corporate culture is “how things get done around here.” The American military is one of the most successful creators of a powerful “corporate culture.” In the military, a team member may sacrifice his or her life for the sake of the team. Business corporations can rarely rely on this intensity of identification but a strong corporate culture can help workers improve. Recall that one of the big problems with monetary incentives is that the firm can’t always measure what it wants and a firm that can’t measure quality, for example, may be worried about creating strong incentives for quantity. But a firm with workers who value high quality for its own sake can have the best of both worlds—high quantity and high quality. Corporate culture helps firms incentivize what is difficult to measure. Corporate culture is in part responsible for the ascendancy of Wal-Mart, starting in the 1970s. In the 1970s, CEO Sam Walton spent several days a week visiting each store. He typically would gather the employees together in a rousing corporate cheer. He then walked around the store and encouraged people to tell him what the problems were or what the company was doing wrong. Most managers were encouraged to visit stores and find out what was on the minds of workers.The flow of useful information up to the bosses became a company norm, and workers grew more and more willing to share what they knew. When something in the company went wrong, usually the mistake was discovered quickly and there was someone ready to set it right. In other cases, corporate culture malfunctions. As Wal-Mart was growing, Kmart, one of its main competitors, was on the road to bankruptcy. At Kmart, employees tended to hide problems from managers rather than volunteer solutions. Usually control was centralized and the attitude was that the home office knows best. Each time the company had a problem it looked for a “quick fix” rather than going to the root of the difficulty.The tradition of failure bred on itself and members of the company simply did not work together very well. Kmart has come out of bankruptcy but it remains unclear whether the company enjoys much of a future. Most customers vote with their feet and go to Wal-Mart.12 The importance of morale and good relations extends beyond the business corporation.You can see these same principles at work in your everyday life. Intrinsic and extrinsic motivation can work together but not always.When intrinsic motivation is strong, people are sometimes insulted by offers of money. If you ask a friend to give you a ride to the airport, the friend would probably say yes (well, some friends . . . maybe not all of your friends). Offer your friend $20 for a ride and all of a sudden the friend feels like a taxi driver, not a friend.The friend who might have done it for free will turn down the job for $20. In one advice column, a woman complained that her husband promised to “pay her by the pound” to lose weight (the advice column did not say whether the husband was an economist).This marriage probably Corporate culture is the shared collection of values and norms that govern how people interact in an organization or firm. Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 324 324 • PA R T 3 • Firms and Factor Markets > Is Christmas wasteful? Instead of presents, wouldn’t it be more efficient to give cash which can be used to buy what the recipient really wants? Why don’t we see cash gifts more often? > Some parents and increasingly some schools are using cash to pay students for good grades. Good idea or not? ▼ CHECK YOURSELF was not a happy one, and we should not expect this proposed transaction to succeed. Similarly, it is not always possible to pay a son or a daughter to do the dirty dishes. Nagging doesn’t always work well either but paying money can be worse.When the parents pay money, the daughter feels less familial obligation. Once she says to herself “Doing the dishes is a job for money,” the daughter is no more obligated to do her parent’s dishes than she is to get a job at a restaurant to do other people’s dishes. In these cases, payment causes external motivation to replace internal motivation.Yet for some tasks, internal motivation is what gets the job done, and in these cases payment can be counterproductive. Note that payment from a restaurant will get the same daughter to show up for work on time. Having her own job—which is a signal of adulthood and independence—is “cool” and makes the daughter feel like a grown-up. Money from parents, which feels like an allowance for tots, or feels like a means of parental control, will not boost the daughter’s internal motivation to do the dishes. The lesson is this: Monetary rewards are most effective when they are supported by intrinsic motivation and measures of social status. Good entrepreneurs understand these connections, and they design their workplaces so that money, intrinsic motivation, and status incentives work together. Money can’t buy you love, however, and sometimes love is the incentive that makes family and personal relationships work well. Money can’t buy you duty or honor either so even within firms and other organizations such as the military, monetary incentives must be used with care. Understanding when extrinsic and intrinsic rewards complement one another and when they are at odds is today more of an art than a science. Questions like these are on the cutting edge of social psychology and behavioral economics. Takeaway Incentives are a double-edged sword.When aligned with the social interest, incentives can be powerful forces for good but misaligned incentives can be equally powerful forces for bad. One of the goals of economics is to understand what institutions generate good incentives. On a less grand level, getting the incentives right is an important goal of managers who want to motivate employees, stockholders who want to motivate managers, parents who want to motivate children, and consumers who want to motivate real estate agents, physicians, or lawyers among many others. In this chapter, we discussed three lessons to help get the incentives right. Lesson one is: you get what you pay for but what you pay for is not always what you want. Sometimes the gap between what you pay for and what you want arises because the incentive plan is badly designed. More often the gap arises because measuring exactly what you want is difficult so you must pay for something that is more easily measurable but is not exactly what you want.When the gap between what you pay for and what you want is large, strong incentives can be worse than weak incentives. As it becomes easier to measure things like quality, however, strong incentive plans are becoming more common. Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 325 Getting Incentives Right: Lessons for Business, Sports, Politics, and Life • C H A P T E R 1 5 • 325 Lesson two is tie pay to performance to reduce risk. Strong incentives put more risk on agents from factors beyond their control and to bear this risk the agents will demand greater compensation. Sales agents on commission, for example, bear the risk that the economy goes into a downturn or that the product they sell is of low quality. As a result of this increased financial risk, sales agents on commission must be paid higher average wages than sales agents on salary. A firm must ask whether the strong incentives created by commissions increase sales enough to justify the higher average wages. A good incentive plan will reduce unnecessary risk by tying rewards to actions that an agent controls and that are effective in increasing output. Different incentive plans like commissions, bonuses, and tournaments impose different types of risks on agents.Which incentive plan is best will depend on which risks are most important. Lesson three is that money isn’t everything. In addition to earning money, workers want to enjoy their work, identify with a team, and be respected. Successful corporations provide these rewards as well as monetary rewards. Monetary rewards can be paid only for what is measurable but a successful corporate culture can help firms incentivize what is difficult to measure. Monetary rewards are most effective when they are supported by intrinsic motivation and measures of social status. CHAPTER REVIEW KEY CONCEPTS Piece rate, p. 316 Tournament, p. 319 Corporate culture, p. 323 FACTS AND TOOLS 1. This chapter had three big lessons. Each of the following situations illustrates one and (we think) only one of those lessons.Which one? a. Militaries throughout the world give medals, citations, and other public honors to members of the military who excel in their duties. b. People tip for good service after their meal is concluded. c. Real estate agents work on commission, but office managers at a real estate office are paid a straight salary. d. In Pennsylvania in 2009, two judges received $2.6 million in bribes from a juvenile prison. The more people they sent to jail, the more they received from the prison owners.What tipped off prosecutors was that the judges were sentencing teens to such harsh sentences for relatively minor crimes. One teenager was sent to prison for putting up a Facebook page that said mean things about her school principal; another accidentally bought a stolen bicycle. (Both judges pled guilty.) 2. An American church sends 10 missionaries to Panama for three years to try to find new converts. Every six months, the missionary with the most new converts gets to be the supervising missionary for the next six months.This basically means that he or she gets to drive a car, while the other 9 have to walk or ride bicycles. Clearly, this is a tournament. Now consider the following two cases. For which case will the church’s incentive plan work best? (Hint:Think about ability risk vs. environment risk.) Case I: Missionaries specialize in different regions: Some stay in rich neighborhoods for the whole six months, others stay in the poor neighborhoods for the whole six months. Case II: Missionaries move from region to region every few weeks, so that all missionaries Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 326 326 • PA R T 3 • Firms and Factor Markets 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. spend a little time in every kind of Panamanian neighborhood. Punishments can be an incentive, not just rewards. Consider an assembly line.Why wouldn’t you necessarily want to reward the fastest worker on the assembly line? What other incentive system might work? Many professional athletes get a bonus if they win a championship. Is this kind of incentive better or worse than Tim Hardaway’s assist bonus? Why? Let’s return to Big Idea Four (thinking on the margin) back in Chapter 1.Why are calls to give harsher penalties to drug dealers and kidnappers often met with warnings by economists? Why are salespeople so much more likely than other kinds of workers to be paid on a “piece rate” (i.e., on commission)? What is it about the kind of work they do that makes the highcommission 1 low-base-salary combination the equilibrium outcome? Unlike in the previous question, sometimes, piece rates don’t work so well.Why might the following incentive mechanisms turn out to be more trouble than they’re worth? a. An industrial materials company pays welders by the number of welds per hour. Of course, the company only pays for necessary welds. b. A magazine publisher pays its authors to write “serial novels” one chapter at a time. The authors are paid by the word (common in the nineteenth century:This is how Dickens and Dostoyevsky made their livings). The typical corporate executive’s incentive package offers higher pay when the company’s stock does well. One proposal for such executive merit pay is to instead pay executives based on whether their firm’s stock price does better or worse than the stock price of the average firm in their own industry. Does this proposal solve an environment risk problem or an ability risk problem? How can you tell? THINKING AND PROBLEM SOLVING 1. In 1975, economist Sam Peltzman published a study of the effects of recent safety regulations for automobiles. His results were surprising: increased safety standards for automobiles had no measurable effect on passenger fatalities. Pedestrian fatalities in automobile accidents, however, increased. (This is now known as the Peltzman effect and has been tested repeatedly over the decades.) a. Why might more pedestrians be killed when a car has more safety features? b. Economists have looked for ways out of Peltzman’s dilemma. Here’s one possible solution: Gordon Tullock, our colleague at George Mason, has argued that cars could have long spikes jutting out of the steering column pointed directly at the driver’s heart. Keeping Peltzman’s paper and the role of incentives in mind, would you expect this safety mechanism to result in an increase, decrease, or no change in automobile accident fatalities? Why? c. Would a pedestrian who never drives or rides in cars tend to favor Tullock’s solution? Why or why not? 2. One reason it’s hard for a manager to set up good incentives is because it’s easy for employees to lie about how they’ll respond to incentives. For example: Simple Books pays Mary Sue to proofread chapters of new books.After an author writes a draft of a book, Simple sends chapters out to proofreaders like Mary Sue to make sure that spelling, punctuation, and basic facts are correct. As you can imagine, some books are easy to proofread (perhaps Westerns and romances), while others are hard to proofread (perhaps engineering textbooks). But what’s hard or easy is often in the eye of the beholder: Simple can’t tell which books are particularly easy for Mary Sue to proof, so they have to take her word for it. Let’s see how this fact influences the publishing industry. In the figure below, Q* is the number of chapters in the new book, Burned:The Secret History of Toast. It’s a strange mix of chemistry and history, so Simple isn’t sure how Mary Sue will feel about proofing it.The marginal cost curve shows Mary Sue’s true willingness to work:The more chapters she has to read, the more you have to pay her. If Simple offers to pay her $50 per chapter, as shown, she’ll actually finish the job. Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 327 Getting Incentives Right: Lessons for Business, Sports, Politics, and Life • C H A P T E R 1 5 • 327 Price Marginal cost of work (supply) Price paid per chapter (demand) $50/Chapter Q* Quantity of chapters proofed by Mary Sue a. If Mary Sue wants to bluff, claiming that the book is actually painful to read, what is that equivalent to? Supply curve shifting left Supply curve shifting right Demand curve shifting down Demand curve shifting up Once you decide, make the appropriate shift in the figure above. b. The publisher just has to have Mary Sue proof all Q* chapters of Burned:All the other proofreaders are busy.They’ll pay what they need to for her to finish the book.This is the same as another curve shift in a certain direction: Draw in this shift in the figure above. c. What did Mary Sue’s complaining do to her price per chapter? What did it do to her work load? d. (Bonus) You’ve seen how Mary Sue’s bluffing influenced the outcome.What are some things that Simple might do to keep this from happening? 3. Who do you think is in favor of forbidding baseball player contracts from including bonuses based on playing skill? Owners or players? Why? 4. In the short, readable classic Congress:The Electoral Connection, David Mayhew uses the basic ideas of incentives and information as a pair of lenses through which to view members of Congress.What he saw was quite simple:The urge for reelection drives everything.Thus, members are driven by self-interest to give the voters in their home district as much as possible. Of course, voters face the same problem in judging members of Congress that any manager faces when evaluating an employee: Some outputs are harder to measure than others, so voters focus on measurable outputs.With that in mind, what will voters be most likely to care about? Choose one from each pair and briefly explain why you made that choice. a. How many dollars come to the district for new hospitals and highways vs. how many dollars are spent on top-secret military research. b. How well the member behaved in private meetings with Chinese leaders vs. how the member sounded on Meet the Press. c. How well the member did in reforming the Justice Department vs. how well the member did at the Turkey Toss back in the district last Thanksgiving. (As you’ve seen, voters’ focus on the visible can easily drive the member’s entire career. Mayhew’s book was an important early work in “public choice,” the use of basic microeconomic ideas like self-interest and strategy to study political behavior. For more on the topic, Kenneth Shepsle and Mark Bonchek’s short textbook Analyzing Politics is highly recommended. See also Chapter 19 of this textbook.) 5. In the movie business, character actors are typically paid a fixed fee while movie “stars” are typically paid a share of the box office revenues. Why the difference? Try to give two explanations based on the ideas in this chapter. 6. Let’s return to the question we posed in the chapter: Suppose that the big environment risk is not bad professors but rather hard material. Imagine, for example, that some classes are more difficult than other classes (quantum physics 101 vs. handball 101). If you really wanted to learn a little about quantum physics but you were afraid of reducing your GPA, you’d face a tough choice.A curve is better for you than an absolute scale but even if your professor grades on a curve, you’re probably still sitting in a class with other well-trained physics majors. Let’s see if we can find a work-around. a. At your school, are there certain times of the day when the less serious, more fun-loving tend to take their classes? If so, when is it? If you sign up for a section scheduled then, you might look better on the curve. b. Some schools offer simplified (we won’t say “dumbed down”) versions of some hard Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 328 328 • PA R T 3 • Firms and Factor Markets DAVID HOWELLS/CORBIS courses. Does your school offer anything like this? If so, does it allow majors to take the same sections as the non-majors? How is this sorting related to tournament theory? c. If you were a professor, which teaching schedule would you rather have:Two sections where the majors and non-majors are mixed together, or one section with the majors, and one with the non-majors? 7. When an accused defendant is brought before a judge to schedule a trial, the judge may release the defendant on his or her “own recognizance” or the judge may demand that the defendant post bail, an amount of cash that the defendant must give to the court and that will be forfeited if the defendant fails to appear. Many defendants don’t have the cash so they borrow the money from a bail bondsperson. So if the defendant fails to appear, the bail bondsperson is out the money, unless the defendant is recaptured within 90–180 days.To recover their money, a bail bondsperson will hire bail enforcement agents, also known as bounty hunters, to track down the missing defendant. If the bounty hunters don’t find the defendant, they don’t get paid. This Dog knows how to hunt. a. If defendants released on their own recognizance fail to appear, they are pursued by the police, but if they are released on bail borrowed from a bondsperson and they fail to appear they will be pursued by bounty hunters.Which type of defendant do you think is more likely to fail to appear and which type is more likely to be recaptured if they do fail to appear? Why? b. Perhaps surprisingly, bounty hunters tend to be quite courteous and respectful even to defendants who have tried to skip town. Can you think of one reason why? 8. a. Why do so many charitable activities like marathons, walks, and 5K runs give the participants “free” t-shirts, wristbands, hats, bumper stickers, and so forth? b. Charitable organizations could probably make a lot of money for their cause by selling these items on their websites, but you usually have to actually attend the “2012 Cancer Run” in order to get the “2012 Cancer Run” t-shirt.Why? CHALLENGES 1. Let’s tie together this chapter’s story on incentives with Chapter 13’s story about cartels. Suppose your economics professor grades on a curve:The average score on each test becomes a B–. If all of the students in your class form a conspiracy to cut back on studying, point out how this cartel might break down just like OPEC’s cartel breaks down during some decades. 2. What type of systems in the United States help overcome the incentives of physicians to order medically unnecessary tests? 3. In his path-breaking book Managerial Dilemmas, political scientist Gary Miller says that a good corporate culture is one that gets workers to work together even when they face prisoner’s dilemmas (we discussed the prisoner’s dilemma in detail in Chapter 13). In a healthy corporate culture, you feel guilty if you’re being lazy while your buddy is working. Let’s sum up “guilt” as simply as possible: It’s some number “X” that represents how you feel.These figures are adapted from Figure 13.3. Stan Kyle Work Shirk Work (4, 4) (2, X) Shirk (X, 2) (3, 3) Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 329 Getting Incentives Right: Lessons for Business, Sports, Politics, and Life • C H A P T E R 1 5 • 329 a. What does X have to be in order to keep this from being a prisoner’s dilemma? Answer with a range (e.g., greater than 12.5, less than - 2). b. Now, there are two Nash equilibria in this problem.What are they? Using the language of Chapter 13, what kind of game has this just become? c. There’s an idea buried in the questions from Chapter 13 that will “point” Stan and Kyle toward the best possible outcome.What is it? (Keep in mind that a good corporate culture can help with this part, too.) 4. a. Many HMOs pay their doctors based, in part, on how many patients the doctor sees in a day.What problems does this incentive system create? b. If HMOs pay their doctors a fixed salary, what problems does this incentive system create? c. Ideally, we would like to pay doctors based on how long their patients live! What problems exist in implementing this type of system? Cowen1e_CH15.pp3_313-330.qxd 8/31/09 7:43 PM Page 330
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