The following is the first of two Update articles dealing with the upcoming American
elections. The second will be published after they are held.
Update: The 2014 Midterm Elections in America –
November 4, 2014
By Robert Mikkelsen, published October 27, 2014
What is a Midterm Election?
Elections for federal offices are held in the United States every two years. Since the President of the
United States is elected for a four year period, one of these elections will occur in the middle of the
President’s four year term of office. It is these elections that are known as “midterm elections.”
During a midterm election all the 435 members of the House of Representatives are up for reelection
and one third – or a minimum of 33 – of the 100 members of the Senate. The reason only one third
of the Senate is up for reelection is that Senators serve six year terms of office and the writers of the
Constitution wanted to assure that they were not all shifted out at one time. (See Access to English:
Social Studies, “The Congress – legislative powers”, pp.193-194)
In addition to these federal offices, elections are held by the thousands on the state and local level
throughout the country. The most important are the elections of governors in some of the 50 states.
Then there also are elections for state assembly representatives, state senators, mayors, city council
members, police chiefs, local school board members and on and on. Americans have a blizzard of
elections to keep track of every two years.
Characteristics of Midterm Elections
Perhaps the clearest characteristic of midterms is that fact that far fewer people vote in them than
during years with a Presidential election. Presidential elections excite and engage people much more
than midterm Congressional elections do. Many Americans do not bother to follow the local election
campaigns or to vote in midterms. Another characteristic of midterms is that the political party of the
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sitting President traditionally loses some Congressional seats in these elections. This reflects the wear
and tear of actually governing – that is, of actually making decisions or taking actions which some
people are bound to disagree with. This almost always favors the political opposition.
This was certainly the case in the last midterm elections in 2010 when the Republican Party gained a
strong majority in the House of Representatives in the middle of Democratic President Barack
Obama’s first term of office. 63 seats changed hands, one of the greatest shifts ever seen (see
ACCESS UPDATE: The Perfect Slosh). During the Presidential election two years later in 2012, some of
these seats were won back by the Democrats. This was partly attributed to “riding the coattails” of
President Obama’s successful campaign for reelection – that is, his popularity helping Democratic
Congressional candidates win. But not enough seats were won to regain a majority in the House.
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Happily for the Democrats, they kept a majority in the Senate in both elections, though they lost
seats in that chamber as well.
What is at stake in 2014?
To understand what is at stake, we must first take a glance at the overall political situation in the
USA. After the Republicans won a majority in the House of Representative in 2010 they have
steadfastly blocked most of the policies, programs and legislation put forward by Democratic
President Barack Obama. They have been able to do this because the President can only suggest
legislation. Both chambers of Congress must pass it for it to become law (see Access to English: Social
Studies, “Separation of powers”, pp. 191-192). This has led to long and bitter conflicts between the
two, even shutting down the Federal government for lack of money last October. These conflicts
reflect a long and deep split between conservatives and liberals in the nation as a whole (see Access
to English: Social Studies, “A Red State / Blue State Chasm”, p. 208).
So what is at stake in the 2014 midterms? Basically, whether the Republicans will be able to keep
their majority in the House of Representatives and gain a majority in the Senate or whether the
Democrats can break the hold of the Republicans in the House and keep their majority in the Senate.
If the Republicans win both chambers, then it will be very difficult for President Obama to put
through his policies during the last two years of his final term. That would, in turn, probably weaken
the chances of the Democratic candidate to become President in 2016. If the Democrats should win
the House and the Senate, it would end the standoff between the executive and legislative branches
of government at the federal level and probably lead to a flurry of legislation being passed in
Obama’s last two years. This would most likely strengthen Democratic chances of winning the White
House in 2016.
What is the situation today?
As this article is being written most political commentators and polls favor the Republicans to win the
midterm elections. Virtually all the polls show them keeping their majority in the House of
Representatives. Others show them with a good chance to also gain a majority in the Senate (see
Senate Forecast). Why have the Republicans gained the upper hand in the run up to the midterms?
There are a number of factors weighing in here.
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As mentioned above, the voter turnout is low
in midterm elections. This traditionally favors
the Republicans because they are generally
wealthier and more active politically, and
therefore they vote in larger numbers than
Democrats. This difference is made greater by
the fact that relatively poor minority groups
like the blacks and Hispanics have been a vital
part of the majorities that elected President
Obama and other Democrats in 2012. But
these same groups are among those with the
lowest voter turnout in midterm elections. It
will be hard to mobilize them.
In addition, the deadlock between the
President and Congress over the past four
years has disillusioned many possible voters
regarding government and politics. The
reputation of Congress has never been lower (see Congressional Job Approval). Of course, that could
reduce voter turnout for both parties, but in general it hits the party in the White House harder than
the opposition, which can always say about failures of government “I told you!” – even if they have
helped to manufactured those failures themselves.
Finally, President Obama’s popularity has fallen over the past year to the lowest recorded in his
presidency (see President Obama Job Approval). This is due to a combination of domestic issues
concerning the slow rate of economic growth and increasing public debt, as well as foreign policy
troubles concerning the breakdown of the American sponsored state in Iraq and increasing violence
in the Middle East (see Handling Top Issues). In 2012 many Democratic candidates gained from
Obama’s victory. In 2014 many candidates are trying to avoid him. They are afraid his lack of
popularity will pull them down. In sum, this year Obama’s coattails seem to be dragging in the mud.
That favors the Republicans.
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What to look for on November 4
The most important races to follow will be in the Senate. If the Republicans gain a majority there,
they will be able to pass legislation that directly opposes or undermines Obama’s political policies in
both Congressional chambers. That would sharpen the conflict between the legislative and executive
branches of the government, probably leading Obama to employ his veto powers more often during
his last two years in office (see Access to English: Social Studies, “Checks on Congress”, p. 194). In
sum, the struggle between the two branches would deepen, further undermining the actions of the
Federal government.
Here is an overview of the Senate: The Democrats currently have a majority of 55 of the 100 seats
(including the support of 2 independent Senators). Therefore the Republicans need to gain at least 6
seats to gain a majority. The number of seats up for this midterm election is 36 – the usual 1/3 (33)
plus 3 seats which have been vacated by death or retirement. Of these 36 seats, 21 are currently held
by the Democrats and 15 by the Republicans. That means that Democrats have more Senators up for
election, making them more vulnerable. As this is written, 10 of the 36 Senate contests are
considered too close to call – they are “toss ups.” These are the races to watch (see “Senate Election
Map” at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/2014_elections_senate_map.html).
The single most important factor that will decide these elections will be the ability of the two parties
to get their supporters up off the sofa and into the voting booths. Motivation is low (see Voter
Engagement). As mentioned above, the Republicans seem to hold the advantage there, but the
Democrats have been surprisingly effective in getting out the vote during the Obama years. They
have developed an impressive grass roots organization, so it is in no way a foregone conclusion that
the Republicans will out mobilize them. And – despite all the commentators and the polls – as one
wit put it “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.” By the time you read this, some basic
indicators may have changed. New events may have affected the voters. As the saying goes, “One
week is a long time in politics.”
Tasks
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Spot check
a)
What is a midterm election?
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b)
What is the clearest characteristic of midterms?
c)
What is at stake in the 2014 midterms?
d)
Which party looks likely to win them?
e)
Which of the many midterm elections are most important?
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Following Senate elections
Let’s take a closer look at five of the ten toss-up states: Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Colorado and
New Hampshire. Divide your class into five groups with one state each. Look into the polls in that
state and make a quick report back to the class on the basis of the following questions:
a)
In what part of America is the state located? (See next page.)
b)
Which party now controls the Senate seat up for election?
c)
Who are the candidates and which party do they belong to?
d)
Which candidate has gained support most recently?
e)
Which candidate is leading in the polls at the moment?
f)
Who do you think is going to win? (Take a guess!)
Iowa
North Carolina
Georgia
Colorado
New Hampshire
PS – Keep your notes for after the election. ;-)
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