Women’s Voices.
Women Vote
A New America
A New Majority
A New Challenge
Women’s Voices.
Women Vote
Women's Voices. Women Vote
(WVWV)
WVWV is a 501(c)3 nonprofit, nonpartisan
organization and does not endorse candidates.
WVWV is dedicated to increasing the share of
unmarried women and other historically
under-represented groups in the electorate.
Women’s Voices.
Women Vote
The New America
• The Rising American Electorate (RAE) -- Unmarried
Women, Youths (ages 18-29), African Americans,
Latinos, and all other non-white races – now accounts for
more than half of the voting-eligible population in
America (52%).
• While RAE turnout has increased in recent elections, they
still do not vote in proportion to their share of the
population.
Women’s Voices.
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Demographic Composition of the Rising
American Electorate (RAE)
18-29 Year Olds
Unmarried Women
21.3%
24.7%
21.3%
24.7%
Rest of
Electorate
48%
Rising
American
Electorate
52%
African Americans
11.8%
11.8%
Latinos
9.5%
9.5%
Other Race
5.3%
5.3%
Voting-Eligible Population
Source: Census Bureau, November 2008 CPS
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Overlap among the groups that
comprise the RAE
107 million eligible
voters (52% of all
eligible voters) are
in the RAE
Unmarried
Women
51 million
5.3m Latino
unmarried
women
Latino
20 million
16.5 m
young
unmarried
women
Youth
44 million
Other
11m
9.4 m AA
unmarried
women
African
American
24 million
*Source: Unmarried America, 2009
Women’s Voices.
Women Vote
Rising American Electorate Turnout Compared
to Share of the Population
Proportion of 2008 Electorate
Proportion of Voting-Eligible Population
40
30
25
20
23
21
17
12
10
12
9
7
0
Unmarried Women
Youth
African American
Latino
Source: 2008 Census CPS Voter Registration
Supplement
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The Question for 2010:
WHO TURNS OUT?
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Drop-Off Voting in Mid-Term Elections
• Drop-off voting happens when people who voted in a
presidential election do not vote in the following
midterm election.
• Voters from historically under-represented groups are
most likely to be drop-off voters.
• Drop-off voting among the RAE has increased in
recent midterm elections.
Women’s Voices.
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Understanding potential drop-off
among the RAE
• WVWV commissioned survey soliciting
self-reporting of likelihood to vote.
• WVWV developed drop-off projections
based on average turnout percentages in
the past 4 midterm elections.
Women’s Voices.
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Self-reporting of likelihood to vote shows
RAE at greater risk of dropping off
Total
Percentage of who did
not answer 10 on a
likelihood of voting scale RAE
(1-10)
NonRAE
56
63
47
18-29 Year Olds
83
Unmarried
women
Latinos
African
Americans
64
49
46
0
20
40
Source: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner survey commissioned by Democracy Corps,
Women’s Voices. Women Vote, and Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund.
60
80
100
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Projected Electorate in 2010
2008
2010
24.7%
Rest of
Electorate
53.39%
Rising
American
Electorate
46.61%
Rest of
Electorate
59.08%
11.8%
21.3%
Rising
American
Electorate
40.92%
9.5%
Source: Census Bureau, November 2008 CPS
Women’s Voices.
Women Vote
2010: Projected RAE Drop-Off
• Drop-off rate for RAE voters could be DOUBLE
the rate for Non-RAE voters: 37% vs. 18.5%*
• 22 million fewer RAE voters than in 2008
• RAE drop-off dramatically changes face of
electorate
Source: WVWV projections based on average turnout
percentages in the past 4 midterm elections
Women’s Voices.
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Reading the next 4 slides
• The next 4 slides are maps of the United
Sates that show non-RAE and RAE voter
turnout in 2008 and 2010.
• The lightening effect shows the extent of
drop-off voting in the 2010 midterm
elections.
Women’s Voices.
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Voter Turnout among Non-RAE Voters
2008 Turnout
Women’s Voices.
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Voter Turnout among Non-RAE Voters
2010
2008 Turnout
Women’s Voices.
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Voter Turnout among the RAE
2008 Turnout
Women’s Voices.
Women Vote
Voter Turnout among the RAE
2010
2008 Turnout
Women’s Voices.
Women Vote
RAE drop-off particularly dramatic in
some states.
In Missouri, RAE voters drop off at 34.4%. An estimated 406,000
votes.
Non-RAE voters drop off at 11.7%. An estimated 194,000 votes.
Voter Turnout in MO
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
RAE
NonRAE
2008
2010
Women’s Voices.
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RAE Drop-off: State examples
RAE Drop-off
Non-RAE Drop-off
California
31.2%
(2.6 million votes)
12.5%
(690,000 votes)
Florida
38.8%
(1.6 million votes)
17.9%
(704,000 votes)
Nevada
46.3%
(241,000 votes)
18.8%
(95,000 votes)
Women’s Voices.
Women Vote
2010 Participation
• Democracy doesn’t take “off” years. Voting is as
important in midterms as in presidential elections.
• In 2010, we could see a continued expansion of
democratic participation or voter turnout could
revert to levels that lead to an unrepresentative
political system.
• How We Target and Talk to RAE Voters is Key to
Keeping America’s New Majority Engaged.
Women’s Voices.
Women Vote
Look for Updates on WVWV’s Research
on Drop-Off Voters
• WVWV is committed to keeping the RAE engaged in the
democratic process and is at the forefront of analyzing
who will turn out to vote in the 2010 midterm elections.
• Look for updates to our work on drop-off voters and the
composition of the 2010 electorate at www.wvwv.org.
• Please contact us in any of the following ways:
1707 L Street NW
[email protected]
Suite 750
Office: 202-659-9570
Washington, DC 20036
Fax: 202-833-4362