RESULTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31 MARCH 2017 OVERVIEW Solid growth Further valuation gains Positive policy background Strong pipeline Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 2 OVERVIEW EPRA EPS up 20% Dividend up 10% STPs 5YFV Naylor Report Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 EPRA NAV up 8% Pipeline £153m 3 17% GROWTH IN ANNUALISED RENT ROLL £m 75 8.8 70 0.4 65 0.7 0.7 74.4 60 63.8 55 50 Mar-16 Asset management Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 Rent reviews Development completions Acquisitions Mar-17 4 58% GROWTH IN EPRA EARNINGS £m 45 9.5 40 35 3.4 30 2.8 25 (0.9) 40.3 20 15 25.5 10 5 0 Year to Mar-16 Admin expenses Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 Tax and other Net finance costs Net rental income Year to Mar-17 5 8% GROWTH IN DILUTED EPRA NAV PER SHARE 50p 3.4p 49p 48p 47p 2.4p 46p 45p 49.3p 44p 43p 45.8p (2.3p) 42p 41p 40p Mar-16 Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 Dividends Income (EPRA EPS) Capital (revaluations) Mar-17 6 21% INCREASE IN INVESTMENT PROPERTY £m 5.52% Equivalent yield 5.29% 5.29% Net initial yield 5.10% 1,400 156 1,350 1,300 1,250 57 1,200 1,345 1,150 21 2 1,100 1,050 1,109 1,000 Mar-16 Other Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 Development costs Revaluation gain Acquisitions Mar-17 7 STRONG BALANCE SHEET New £200m RCF at initial margin of 150 bps 2017 2016 1,345 1,109 Net debt (£m) 500 328 Both on unsecured basis Loan to value 37% 30% 78 basis point reduction in weighted average cost of debt Cash/undrawn facilities (£m) 124 119 81% of borrowings are fixed rate and weighted maturity 8.7 years Weighted average interest rate New £100m private placement fixed at 2.65% for 10 years agreed in October Investment property 4.06% 4.84% LTV of 37% is below medium term range of 40% to 50% Well placed to take advantage of future opportunities RCF increased to £250m post year end Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 8 EPRA COST RATIO REDUCED TO 14% EPRA Cost Ratio 24% 22% 20% 20% 18% 18% 17% 16% 14% 14% 12% 10% Mar-14 Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 9 ROBUST PERFORMANCE Stability of valuations over “cycle” Fundamentals remain strong with prospect of rental growth rebounding Pricing remains attractive for further additions Yield progression 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% IPD monthly UK index initial yield 0% Assura Net Initial Yield 15 year Gilt Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 10 CONTINUED GROWTH THROUGH ACQUISITIONS £236m increase in portfolio value £156m additions 5.7% average yield on cost Weighted average unexpired lease term of 14 years on new additions Investment property Rent roll WAULT Pipeline 2017 2016 Change £86m £1,345m £1,109m £236m £74.4m £63.8m £10.6m 13.2 years 14.0 years (0.8) years Solicitors instructed on a further £86m of acquisitions Evolution of General Practice favours corporate property ownership Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 11 BESPOKE DATABASE Database – over 9,000 entries vital tool for targeted growth Lease renewal and lifespan is key determinant scale of opportunity for continued consolidation 67 data points for each surgery circa 5,000 monthly updates to the system including contact with each practice Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 12 DEVELOPMENTS AND PIPELINE 2 forward funded schemes completed 6 forward funding scheme currently on site Number of schemes Appointed on 8 schemes with an approximate end cost of £36m Cost to complete Development cost Completion timing Completed On site Immediate pipeline 2 6 8 £13.8m £31.0m £36.0m £19.1m 2017/18 2018/19 Assura’s strong brand recognition and in-house experienced team help secure appointment Before Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 After 13 RENT REVIEWS Annualised uplifts Rent review settlements average 1.57% RPI/fixed c.28% RPI and fixed 2.49% 6.0% open market 0.88% 5.0% Cost inflation provides potential for future growth OMR c.72% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 14 ENHANCING EXISTING PORTFOLIO Letting of vacant space – £0.4m of new lettings in the period adding value Portfolio 98% let Lease re-gears and extensions are priority Sqm Rent Leases signed 4,377 £0.4m In legal hands 1,169 £0.2m Property extensions add value Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 15 PATIENT ORIENTATED SOLUTIONS Provides safe, fully compliant access to extended range of services Improves health outcomes More episodes of care delivered in the community NHS in line with STPs, next steps 5YFV improved efficiency and cost effective primary care hubs able to deliver more and accommodate services and people Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 16 ENGAGING WITH THE NHS AGENDA Pro-active engagement with policy makers Recruited a Head of Public Affairs Chair of BPF Healthcare Committee Engaging with key stakeholders Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 17 POLICY NHS continues at the core of national debate Key issues emerging over past year Sustainability and Transformation Partnerships (STPs) published significant increase planned in primary care workforce new models for care point to primary care at scale through federations, clusters and hubs Naylor report published in March – estates recognised as key part of solution Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 18 OUTLOOK FOR ASSURA Attractive long term opportunity Assura well placed expertise and unique positioning reputation and brand recognition with GPs scale and financial strength Our priorities: to promote the case for investment in primary care respond to emerging NHS priorities to sustain acquisition and development pipelines Delivering superior risk adjusted returns for shareholders Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 19 Q&A Ashby Guildford Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 Frome Donnington 20 SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION 1. Market 1.1 Growing demand / inadequate supply 1.2 Positive political backdrop 1.3 Policy statements 1.4 Ageing population 1.5 Assura well placed to outperform 1.6 Risk reward spectrum 5. Results 5.1 Financial highlights 5.2 Five year track record 5.3 Balance sheet at 31 March 2017 5.4 EPRA NAV 5.5 Diluted EPRA NAV movement 5.6 EPRA EPS 2. Portfolio 2.1 Total property assets 2.2 Completed investment property 2.3 Sensitivity analysis 6. REITs 6.1 REITs 3. Cash flows 4. Rents 3.1 Cash flow summary 3.2 Contracted rental income 3.3 Lease lengths 3.4 Debt repayment profile 7. Borrowings 7.1 Bank and bond facilities 7.2 Covenants 8. Dividends 8.1 Dividend calendar 4.1 ERV evolution and reversion 4.2 Open market rents results 4.3 Basis of rent reviews 4.4 Developments drive rental growth 4.5 Rent review timing Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 21 1.1 GROWING DEMAND / INADEQUATE SUPPLY Demand Supply 10 year track record of cross-party support for: 2014 BMA survey of GP practices care closer to home greater patient choice Ongoing funding challenge £22bn efficiency savings by 2020-21, tightly-stretched capital allocation More than 340 million GP consultations per year – visits to the doctor by the average person have doubled since 2008 Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 40% of GPs stated premises inadequate for provision of general practice services 70% said premises not suitable for offering a full range of services 80% said premises prevented them hosting a full primary / community healthcare 40% said existing premises could not be extended or developed to meet current or future needs 22 1.2 POSITIVE POLITICAL BACKDROP Cross party support for primary care investment continues Broad consensus on estate as a key enabler of transformation and sustainability Government policy supportive: expansion of access to GP services, growing the primary care workforce and collaboration between practices in Next Steps for the Five Year Forward View rollout of Estates and Technology Transformation Fund schemes continues; multi-year capital programme linked to STP quality due in Autumn Budget supporting Naylor recommendation for a new NHS property board Pressures mounting from changing demands ageing population increasing expectations of service growing range of medical solutions increases demand changing career and practice profile – retirement and recruitment Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 “General practice is undeniably the bedrock of NHS care…so if general practice fails, the NHS fails.” Next Steps on the Five Year Forward View, March 2017 23 1.3 POLICY STATEMENTS Next Steps on the Five Year Forward View Published March 2017 Emphasis on primary care NHS needs to ‘protect and improve its estates’ Universal access to evening and weekend GP appointments by March 2019 Grow the primary care workforce: 5,000 more doctors, 1,000 physician associates and 1,300 clinical pharmacists in surgeries within three years Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 The Naylor review of NHS property and estates: why the estate matters for patients Published March 2017 Recommendations: New NHS property board to lead overarching national estate and capital strategy Ensure primary care facilities meet vision of Five Year Forward View Take advantage of private investment Improved guidance on building standards, with primary care at the front of the queue Minimum £10bn investment to deliver the transformation set out in Sustainability and Transformation Plans – to be met in part by private sector 24 1.4 AGEING POPULATION Male 2014 Female 100 2039 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 600 Source: Office for National Statistics, Lazarus Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 400 200 0 200 400 600 Population (thousands) in each age band 25 1.5 ASSURA WELL PLACED TO OUTPERFORM Good reputation and relationships with GP community IPD Annual Return to Dec-16 since inception of index in 2006 Development capability and strong pipeline 9% Assura Primary Healthcare Benchmark 8.1% Internally managed 8% Knowledgeable and focused team 7% 6% 7.5% 6.1% 6.1% 5% 4% 3% 1.9% 2% 1.4% 1% 0% Income Return Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 Capital Growth Total Return 26 1.6 RISK REWARD SPECTRUM Total return vs standard deviation – ten years to December 2016 9% Residential index Primary Healthcare Bonds Office Equities 7% All Healthcare 6% Industrial 5% All property 4% Retail 3% 2% Total Return (per annum) 8% 1% 0% 18 16 14 increased risk 12 10 8 Risk (standard deviation) 6 4 2 0 reduced risk Source: MSCI Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 27 2.1 TOTAL PROPERTY ASSETS 2017 £m 2016 £m 1,315.3 1,088.0 20.2 11.5 Pharmacy lease premiums 6.4 6.9 Finance leases 3.0 3.0 Property assets held for sale 0.9 1.7 1,345.8 1,111.1 2017 £m 2016 £m 1,344.9 1,109.4 0.9 1.7 1,345.8 1,111.1 Completed investment property Investment property under construction Total Balance sheet classification Investment property Property assets held for sale Total Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 28 2.2 COMPLETED INVESTMENT PROPERTY <£1m £1-5m £5-10m >£10m North South Midlands Scotland Wales GPs NHS Body Pharmacy Other Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 Properties Value (£m) Value (%) 83 245 48 22 398 53.5 618.5 322.2 321.1 1,315.3 4 47 25 24 100 Properties Value (£m) Value (%) 147 127 77 21 26 398 538.7 391.6 274.2 44.8 66.0 1,315.3 41 30 21 3 5 100 Rent roll (£m) Value (%) 50.3 13.7 5.6 4.8 74.4 68 18 8 6 100 29 2.3 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ERV) +1%) +2%) +3%) p/share) p/share) ) p/share) p/share) 5.75% (9.03p) (8.32p) (7.61p) (6.90p) 5.50% (5.81p) (5.07p) (4.33p) (3.59p) 5.25% (2.28p) (1.51p) (0.73p) 0.05p 5.00% 1.60p) 2.41p) 3.23p 4.04p 4.75% 5.88p) 6.74p) 7.60p 8.46p NIY Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 30 3.1 CASH FLOW SUMMARY Year to 2017) £m) Year to)2016) £m) Opening cash 44.3) 66.5) Net cash from operations 39.0) 22.9) (157.9) (122.5) (19.9) (17.7) Sale of properties 1.4) 1.5) Other (0.3) (0.2) - 299.1) Dividends paid (31.9) (26.3) Net borrowings movement 148.8) (179.0) 23.5) 44.3) Cash flows from investing activities: Property and business acquisitions Development expenditure Cash flows from financing activities: Equity issues, net of costs Closing cash Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 31 3.2 CONTRACTED RENTAL INCOME £1,013m total contracted cash flow, 75% of rent roll still contracted in 2027 80 Contracted at 31-Mar-17 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26 Mar-27 Mar-28 Mar-29 Mar-30 Mar-31 Mar-32 Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 32 3.3 LEASE LENGTHS 20 Weighted average unexpired lease term 13.2 years 810 leases 75% of rent roll 9+ years unexpired term 18 159 leases 16 173 leases Rental value (£m) 14 12 10 114 leases 117 leases 8 6 69 leases 56 leases 4 61 leases 2 61 leases 0 21+ 18-20 Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 15-17 12-14 9-11 Years remaining 6-8 3-5 0-2 33 3.4 DEBT REPAYMENT PROFILE 2017 2016 Gross debt £523.8m £372.8m Weighted average maturity 8.7 years 10.2 years 4.06% 4.84% Weighted average cost of debt 300 Aviva Bond RCF Private placement 250 200 150 100 50 0 Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 34 4.1 ERV EVOLUTION AND REVERSION ERV at 31 Mar 2017 £76.7m; vacant space £1.7m, valuers rental ERV £0.6m Passing rent 80 ERV £2.3m £74.4m 70 £2.7m £63.8m Rental value (£m) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Mar-09 Mar-10 Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 35 4.2 OPEN MARKET RENTS RESULTS 1.6% annualised increase from rent reviews settled in the period 0.9% from open market rent reviews 2.5% from RPI and fixed uplift reviews Annualised Rent reviews settled in year to 31 March 2017 Number of outstanding reviews (passing rent) 0.9% Relating to review dates from calendar years: 2009 1 (£0.1m) 2011 (1 review) 8.7% 2 (£0.1m) 2012 (7 reviews) 0.8% 6 (£0.7m) 2013 (11 reviews) 1.6% 16 (£1.2m) 2014 (16 reviews) 0.9% 30 (£3.1m) 2015 (28 reviews) 0.5% 87 (£8.9m) 2016 (11 reviews) 1.0% 129 (£14.0m) - 183 (£15.4m) 2017 YTD Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 Open market reviews only % 36 4.3 BASIS OF RENT REVIEWS 80% Upward/downward review basis - tenant can instigate (6%) Upward/downward review basis - landlord only trigger (23%) 70% Upward only review basis (71%) Proportion of rent roll 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% OMR Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 RPI Fixed Other 37 4.4 DEVELOPMENTS DRIVE RENTAL GROWTH New developments capture increased land and construction costs resulting in increased rents Construction cost increased at higher rate than rent Relationship of increased costs and rent Build costs (£/m2) Scheme Year Blaenavon 2013 2,134 149.5 1,488 Porthcawl 2016 2,220 169.5 1,778 13% 19% Initial rent (£/m2) Build costs (£/m2) Increase Scheme Year Size (m2) Maidstone 2013 1,121 194.0 1,627 Tonbridge 2016 1,391 235.0 2,200 21% 35% Increase Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 Initial rent (£/m2) Size (m2) 38 4.5 RENT REVIEW TIMING Split of current rent roll by rent review basis and frequency of review: Annually 3 Year 5 Year Other - 64% 7% 1% 72% RPI 5% 5% 4% 1% 15% Fixed 2% 6% 1% - 9% Other - 4% - - 4% 7% 79% 12% 2% 100% OMR Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 39 5.1 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Income statement 2017) 2016) Change Net rental income (£m) 67.9) 58.4) up 16% EPRA earnings (£m) 40.3) 25.5) up 58% 2.4) 2.0) up 20% Dividend per share (p) 2.25) 2.05) up 10% Balance sheet 2017) 2016) Change Investment property (£m) 1,345) 1,109) up 21% 49.3) 45.8) up 8% 37) 30) up 7 ppts EPRA EPS (p) Diluted EPRA NAV (pence per share) LTV (%) Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 40 5.2 FIVE YEAR TRACK RECORD Scale 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 Rent roll (£m) 74.4 63.8 55.6 41.8 35.9 1,344.9 1,109.4 925.3 656.7 557.3 818.0 754.3 451.9 226.6 198.1 123.5 118.7 65.3 27.6 15.6 37 30 48 62 62 2.4 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.5 NAV1 per share (p) 49.4 46.1 44.9 43.4 38.6 Dividends (p) 2.25 2.05 1.85 1.36 0.86 Investment property (£m) Net assets (£m) Flexibility Free cash/available facilities (£m) LTV (%) Performance EPS1 (p) Figures represent year to 31 March 1EPRA basis (appendix 5) Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 41 5.3 BALANCE SHEET AT 31 MARCH 2017 £236m increase in investment property Loan to value of 37% £124m of available facilities and cash Positioned strongly for future growth Property and debt Investment property £m 1,600 Net debt 1,400 1,345 1,200 1,109 1,000 925 800 600 400 657 415 500 450 328 200 0 Mar-14 Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 42 5.4 EPRA NET ASSET VALUE Net assets Own shares held Deferred tax NAV in accordance with EPRA Number of shares in issue EPRA NAV per share – basic Diluted number of shares EPRA NAV per share – diluted Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 EPRA NAV) EPRA NAV) 2017) £m) 2016) £m) 818.0) 754.3) -) 0.6) (0.5) (0.4) 817.5) 754.5) 1,655,040,993) 1,637,706,738 49.4p 46.1p 1,658,284,284) 1,648,949,999 49.3p 45.8p 43 5.5 DILUTED EPRA NET ASSET VALUE MOVEMENT £m) Pence per share) Diluted NAV in accordance with EPRA at 31 March 2016 754.5) 45.8) Income (underlying profit) 40.3) 2.4) Capital (revaluations and capital gains) 56.4) 3.4) (37.0) (2.3) Equity issuance 1.7) -) Other 1.6) -) 817.5) 49.3) Dividends NAV in accordance with EPRA at 31 March 2017 Growth 3.5) 7.6% Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 44 5.6 EPRA EARNINGS PER SHARE 2017 £m 2016 £m Profit for the period 95.3 27.9 EPRA earnings 40.3 25.5 1,647,388,495 1,300,338,908 – net profit 5.8p 2.2p – EPRA 2.4p 2.0p 1,650,631,786 1,311,582,169 5.8p 2.1p 2.4p 2.0p Weighted average number of shares in issue – basic Basic EPS Weighted average number of shares in issue – diluted Diluted EPS – net profit – EPRA Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 45 6.1 REITS REIT status is a tax election available to listed real estate companies REITs are tax exempt on property rental income and capital gains Profits are passed through to investors through minimum Property Income Distributions (PIDs) 90% of taxable property rental profits Subject to 20% withholding tax (unless investor is a qualifying institution) Other dividends are not subject to withholding tax Assura currently pays dividends not PIDs as the minimum PID is £nil REITs are a recognised global investment class, attractive to specialist investors REITs are required to meet rules ensuring they remain focused on real estate investment activity Development activity is permitted but taxable if developments are sold within 3 years of practical completion Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 46 7.1 BANK AND BOND FACILITIES Fixed / Floating Maturity Effective1 interest1 rate1 10 year listed Bond Fixed Dec-21 4.75%1 Secured 110.0) Aviva loans Fixed Various to 2044 5.43%1 Secured 213.8) Floating May-21 1.76%1 Unsecured 100.0) Fixed Oct-26 2.65%1 Unsecured 100.0) Loan / Bond £200m revolving credit facility £100m private placement notes Secured/ unsecured Outstanding) 31 Mar 2017) £m) 523.8) 1 Loan issue costs (3.7) Borrowings 520.1) Finance leases 3.0) Cash (23.5) Net debt 499.6) 1.50% above LIBOR, subject to LTV Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 47 7.2 COVENANTS All covenant conditions complied with Bond Aviva Unsecured facilities Req. Act. Req. Act. Req. Act. Interest cover >1.5 2.29 ≥1.05 1.50 ≥1.75 9.90 LTV >1.35 1.69 <70% 53% n/a n/a >10 yrs 10.7 yrs n/a n/a >7 yrs 14.4 yrs >75% 78% n/a n/a n/a n/a Leverage n/a n/a n/a n/a <60% 26% Gearing n/a n/a n/a n/a <150% 33% Net rental income n/a n/a n/a n/a >8.5% 19% WAULT NHS Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 48 8.1 DIVIDEND CALENDAR Payment date2 Ex-div date2 Record date2 Total2 Q1 20 Apr 20161 17 Mar 20161 18 Mar 20161 0.55p1 Q2 27 Jul 20161 23 Jun 20161 24 Jun 20161 0.55p1 Q3 19 Oct 20161 15 Sep 20161 16 Sep 20161 0.55p1 Q4 18 Jan 20171 15 Dec 20161 16 Dec 20161 0.60p1 Payment date2 Ex-div date2 Record date2 Total2 Q1 19 Apr 20171 16 Mar 20171 17 Mar 20171 0.60p2 Q2 19 Jul 20171 15 Jun 20171 16 Jun 20171 0.60p2 Q3 18 Oct 20171 14 Sep 20171 15 Sep 20171 0.60p2 Q4 24 Jan 20181 14 Dec 20171 15 Dec 20171 0.60p2 2016/17 2017/18 1 Provisional date 2 Provisional amount Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 49 DISCLAIMER This presentation contains certain statements that are neither financial results nor other historical information. These statements are forward-looking in nature and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual future results may differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these statements. Many of these risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond Assura’s ability to control or estimate precisely, such as future market conditions, the behaviour of other market participants, the actions of governmental regulators and other risk factors such as the Company’s ability to continue to obtain financing to meet its liquidity needs, changes in the political, social and regulatory framework in which the Company operates or in economic or technological trends or conditions, including inflation and consumer confidence, on a global, regional or national basis. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this document. Assura does not undertake any obligation to publicly release any revision to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of these materials. Information contained in this presentation relating to the Company or its share price, or the yield on its shares, should not be relied upon as a guide to future performance. Results for the year ended 31 March 2017 50
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