CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY Usman Muhammad Buhari Sugar Cane Modelling Using GIS and Remote Sensing Techniques School of Applied Sciences Geographical Information Management MSc Academic Year: 2013 - 2014 Supervisor: Dr. Stephen Hallett; Dr. Toby Waine September 2014 CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY School of Applied Sciences Geographical Information Management MSc Academic Year 2013 - 2014 Usman Muhammad Buhari Sugar Cane Modelling Using GIS and Remote Sensing Techniques Supervisor: Dr. Stephen Hallett; Dr. Toby Waine September 2014 This thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MSc Geographical Information Management © Cranfield University 2014. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced without the written permission of the copyright owner. ABSTRACT This study addresses land evaluation for sugar cane suitability, and demonstrates the usefulness of integrating both legacy cartographic and contemporary data to help solve assessment problems. Land evaluation techniques have proved useful for supporting rational management of land resources and sustainable development across many sectors. A Geographical Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) were used to identify suitable lands for growing sugar cane at 2 sites in North-East Nigeria. The basic FAO land evaluation framework was adopted, using readily available data including terrain and soil. Satellite data were utilised to derive several thematic maps to help identify areas with the required potentials. A GIS-based suitability analysis was conducted using the ESRI ArcGIS software, and the input datasets reclassified to assign categories that could be integrated in one model. A weighted overlay method was used, along with a traditional boolean raster method, to allow comparison of results from each method. The weighted overlay method areas demarked more land as ‘suitable’ than did the traditional boolean method. This could derive from the assignment of differing weightings in the weighted overlay, making it a more flexible operation when compared to the strict “true or false” assessment of the boolean method. Across the selected study area, an estimated 75% of the land was classified as being ‘moderately suitable’ for sugar cane. One future means to fully differentiate these areas would be the introduction of precision farming techniques to enable continuous management of the crop and to obtain improved yield production. Keywords: Land suitability analysis, weighted overlay, sugar cane, legacy data, WOSSAC i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I will like to acknowledge God Almighty for keeping me alive to witness the successful completion of this research. A sincere gratitude goes to my humble supervisor Dr. Stephen Hallett for guiding and encouraging me through this research, my appreciation also goes to Dr. Toby Waine my co-supervisor for his advice. I want to use this opportunity to thank the WOSSAC crew: Dr. Ian Baillie and Brian Kerr for their endless support and readiness to help when needed. You really were awesome and I truly appreciate your kind gesture. I will also like to thank Dr. Samantha Lavender of Plymouth University for her advice during this research and Joanna Zawadzka for her assistance during my research. Finally and most importantly, I will like to thank my parents for believing in me and giving me the chance to become who I am. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ......................................................................................................... i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................................................................... iii LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................ vii LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................. viii LIST OF EQUATIONS ........................................................................................ ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................ x 1 Introduction...................................................................................................... 2 2 Literature review .............................................................................................. 6 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 6 2.2 Land suitability and evaluation .................................................................. 8 2.3 Sugar cane modelling ............................................................................... 9 2.3.1 Sugar cane and irrigation ................................................................. 12 2.4 Role of GIS in suitability modelling.......................................................... 13 2.5 Conclusion .............................................................................................. 14 3 Materials and methods .................................................................................. 15 3.1 Study area .............................................................................................. 15 3.1.1 The Lau Tau study area ................................................................... 15 3.1.2 The Hadeija study area .................................................................... 16 3.2 Suitability modelling technique ................................................................ 17 3.3 Data sourcing .......................................................................................... 17 3.4 Data preparation and analyses ............................................................... 18 3.4.1 Creating a primary database ............................................................ 19 3.4.2 Preparing the soil map ..................................................................... 19 3.4.3 Preparing the NDVI map .................................................................. 20 3.4.4 Preparing the landforms map ........................................................... 22 3.4.5 Preparing the slope map .................................................................. 23 3.5 Crop suitability model implementation .................................................... 25 3.5.1 Reclassifying the datasets ................................................................ 26 3.5.2 Weighting the datasets ..................................................................... 26 3.6 Conclusion .............................................................................................. 27 4 Results and discussion .................................................................................. 29 4.1 Model outputs ......................................................................................... 29 4.2 Associated challenges ............................................................................ 31 4.2.1 Collecting soil data ........................................................................... 31 4.2.2 Collecting digital elevation model ..................................................... 32 4.2.3 Deriving landforms from the DEM .................................................... 32 4.2.4 Soil moisture data............................................................................. 35 4.2.5 Collecting rainfall data ...................................................................... 35 4.3 Methods adopted .................................................................................... 36 4.3.1 Solar irradiance map ........................................................................ 36 v 4.3.2 NDVI vs. EVI .................................................................................... 37 4.4 Implications ............................................................................................. 38 5 Recommendations......................................................................................... 40 6 Conclusion..................................................................................................... 42 REFERENCES ................................................................................................. 43 APPENDICES .................................................................................................. 48 Appendix A ................................................................................................... 48 Appendix B ................................................................................................... 52 vi LIST OF FIGURES Fig. 1. Delineation of the Lau Tau study area ................................................... 16 Fig. 2. Delineation of the Hadeija study area .................................................... 17 Fig. 3. Showing Lau Tau soil map .................................................................... 20 Fig. 4. NDVI maps for both Hadeija and Lau Tau study areas ......................... 22 Fig. 5. Landforms for both Hadeija and Lau Tau study areas using the “SOTERlike” method (see appendix for full legend) ................................................ 23 Fig. 6. Slope maps for both Hadeija and Lau Tau study areas ......................... 24 Fig. 7. Flowchart of the methodology used for this project ............................... 25 Fig. 8. Showing models outputs using the traditional boolean method (fig. a) and fig. (b-f) showing results derived from the weighted overlay model ........... 30 Figure 9: Showing area distribution of Lau Tau study area based on the suitability classes ....................................................................................... 31 Fig. 10. Hadeija and Lau Tau’s Digital Elevation Model over a hillshade model .................................................................................................................. 32 Figure 11: Delineated landforms types of Lau Tau study area ......................... 34 Figure 12: Showing study areas falling into one pixel of the soil moisture data 36 Figure 13: Solar irradiance maps showing daily sun hours received for the study areas.......................................................................................................... 37 Figure 14: NDVI and EVI maps of Lau Tau study area .................................... 38 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Study sites description showing the selected ones for this project in highlight ....................................................................................................... 7 Table 2: Showing a summary of different approaches considered in the search for suitable land for growing sugar cane. ................................................... 11 Table 3: Criteria for assessing sugar cane requirements ................................. 27 Table 4: Showing weighting assigned to the 5 map outputs ............................. 27 viii LIST OF EQUATIONS NDVI = (NIR_BAND – RED_BAND) / (NIR_BAND + RED_BAND) (1)............ 21 𝑳𝝀 = 𝑳𝑴𝑨𝑿𝝀 − 𝑳𝑴𝑰𝑵𝝀𝑸𝒄𝒂𝒍𝒎𝒂𝒙 − 𝑸𝒄𝒂𝒍𝒎𝒊𝒏𝑸𝒄𝒂𝒍 − 𝑸𝒄𝒂𝒍𝒎𝒊𝒏 + 𝑳𝑴𝑰𝑵𝝀 (2) 21 𝝆𝝀 = 𝝅. 𝑳𝝀. 𝒅𝟐𝑬𝑺𝑼𝑵𝝀. 𝒄𝒐𝒔𝜽𝒔 (3) .................................................................... 21 ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS GIS Geographical Information Systems NDVI Normalised Difference Vegetation Index EVI Enhanced Vegetation Index SOTER Soil and Terrain Analyses WOSSAC World Soil Survey Archive and Catalogue This thesis has been prepared in the format used for scientific papers appearing in the journal Computers and Electronics in Agriculture with other details in the Appendices. This paper includes an extended literature review. x Sugar cane modelling using GIS and remote sensing techniques Usman Muhammad Buharia a School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield University, Cranfield Bedfordshire MK43 0AL, UK. ABSTRACT This study addresses land evaluation for sugar cane suitability, and demonstrates the usefulness of integrating both legacy cartographic and contemporary data to help solve assessment problems. Land evaluation techniques have proved useful for supporting rational management of land resources and sustainable development across many sectors. A Geographical Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) were used to identify suitable lands for growing sugar cane at two sites in North-East Nigeria. The basic FAO land evaluation framework was adopted, using readily available data including terrain and soil. Satellite data were utilised to derive several thematic maps to help identify areas with the required potentials. A GIS-based suitability analysis was conducted using the ESRI ArcGIS software, and the input datasets reclassified to assign categories that could be integrated in one model. A weighted overlay method was used, along with a traditional boolean raster method, allowing comparison of results from each method. The weighted overlay method areas demarked more land as ‘suitable’ than did the traditional boolean method. This outcome was seen to derive from the assignment of differing weightings in the weighted overlay, making it a more flexible operation when compared to the strict “true or false” assessment of the boolean method. Across the selected study area, an estimated 75% of the land was classified as being ‘moderately suitable’ for sugar cane. One future means to fully differentiate these areas would be the introduction of precision farming techniques to enable continuous management of the crop and to obtain improved yield production. Keywords: Land suitability analysis, weighted overlay, sugar cane, legacy data, WOSSAC 1 1 Introduction With a current and fast growing population of some 170 million, Nigeria has a critical need to secure access to increased agricultural produce. Currently, Nigeria is a major food importer, having an annual food import bill of about $11 billion (DI, 2013). Fertile land for crop cultivation is widely available in the country, but little effort has been made in recent years to help both local and commercial farmers in determining soil potential which will in turn increase the quantity and quality of agricultural production to meet the growing population. Land allocation has also been poorly addressed as its distribution across several land uses are causing detriment to potential agricultural land. Rational land planning and management is therefore required for ensuring optimal use (Collins et al., 2001). Due to inadequate land assessment before commencing development activities, many lands are wrongly used, thereby causing negative impacts on forest reserves, agricultural land and urbanisation. Sugar is consumed in significant quantities in Nigeria about 1.43 trillion metric tonnes yearly (Zaggi, 2013). Mostly this sugar is imported from foreign countries thereby making sugar very expensive for the people. Furthermore, imports are not alone able to meet the growing demand. The two major sugar companies in Nigeria are unable to meet consumer need and so better planning is needed as to how this commodity should be produced and processed not just locally but on a massive scale. Current governmental policy in Nigeria is to encourage local national production through the adoption of import tariffs. One of the dominant Nigerian sugar enterprises is Dangote Sugar. Currently, Dangote mostly import sugar from Brazil and refine it in Nigeria to sell on into the national market. Increased tariffs on imported sugar have recently risen from 5% to 60%, presenting the challenge to the company to develop opportunities to grow sugar cane locally, thereby addressing issues of availability and high cost. In 2013, it was reported in the news that Dangote Sugar would invest some $1.5 million to ensure sugar cane was grown locally and, as the company’s managing 2 director Abdullahi Sule stated, “this is as a response to the government’s drive to reduce its reliance on the oil industry” (Alphonsus, 2013). In turn this policy shift has led to debate as to the best locations for growing sugar cane, and on capacity building for the expertise required. Dangote Sugar have sought an efficient and reliable means to determine suitable geographical locations for farming sugar cane and therefore multi-criteria assessment methods for land suitability assessment have been investigated. To begin this enterprise, several locations were identified, based initially on certain obvious characteristics such as distance to river and availability of land. Further analyses were then required to determine suitable locations for significant sugar cane plantations. Five different sites in both Central and Northern part of Nigeria were identified by Dangote Sugar, narrowing the search for suitable land for sugar cane production to these selected areas. Meanwhile, the Northern region, which contains five of the proposed sites, is mostly comprised of a range of semi-arid to arid zones with an estimated annual rainfall of about 1,500mm – 1,700mm at maximum. Because of the capability issues attributed to some of these sites, irrigation farming was preferred in order to supplement the missing potentials needed for a successful sugar cane yield. Therefore the availability of a long lasting, proximal water source represented major criteria for this assessment. The purpose of this research is to propose robust methods for land evaluation and suitability assessment, drawing upon data from different sources. This was enabled through the adoption of a GIS approach, being well suited for this form of analysis (Sellamuthu et al., 2000). Spatial data for different criteria was incorporated into ArcGIS workspace and further analyses were made to produce suitability maps for each criteria used. These were finally combined to produce a suitability map for growing sugar cane. In order to conduct this land evaluation, GIS tools were adopted to help in combining all the necessary datasets and perform a multi criteria land suitability analyses. The FAO land evaluation framework (1976) was used in this project and 3 the analyses was undertaken by utilizing the weighted overlay method along with a vector based analyses for comparison. The ranking of suitability classes are outlined as follows: Highly suitable: Areas within this class do not have any major limitations as to the specific crop production and if there is any limitation, it would not hinder the production; Moderately suitable: Has limitations that in the aggregate are moderately severe for sustained application to a given use and may reduce the productivity marginally. These lands have slight limitations with no more than three moderate limitations; Marginally suitable: Land with limitations that in the aggregate are severe for sustained application to a given use and as such reduce productivity significantly but is still marginally economical. These lands have more than three moderate limitations and/or more than one severe limitation that, however, does not preclude their use for the specified purposes and; Not Suitable: No suitability detected at all. ESRI ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine software suites were used for the data preparation and analyses processes. A GIS geodatabase was created to hold the large amount of spatial data arising from different sources and formats which were processed and classified based on threshold values used to meet the requirement for sugar cane farming. The approaches adopted are ultimately transferable to other circumstances than solely sugar-cane suitability assessment. Indeed, it was seen as important that the land evaluation approaches adopted be applicable for employment not just in an agricultural context but in other sectors where assessments are made before development activities commence in order to protect land resources from misuse (Malczewski, 2006). During the course of this research, data were collected from different sources. Important in this process was recording the quality of the data and how this data could be utilized within the GIS environment for the proposed analyses. The following are the data sources used for this research: 4 Historic legacy data for soil was retrieved (scanned and digitised) from the World Soil Archive and catalogue (WOSSAC) available at Cranfield University www.wossac.com; The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission 90m Digital Elevation Model; Landsat 8 satellite imageries by the United States Geological Survey covering the study areas and; Soil properties extracted from the Harmonised World Soil Database. It was considered of great importance to integrate the process of land evaluation such that the approaches be applicable for any given purpose, delineating soil constraints, severity and similarity of soil as a means to assist land managers and farmers to plan for better agricultural production (Sellamuthu et al., 2000). Aim To investigation into the development of a crop suitability geodatabase and modelling system for Sugar Cane in Nigeria, drawing on both contemporary environmental data and legacy thematic information. Objectives 1. Adoption of an applied case study-based approach identifying suitability for Sugar Cane at two land sites in Nigeria; 2. Compilation for selected study sites of sources of contemporary environmental data, including satellite imagery, together with appropriate legacy, historical cartographic and report-based information from previous survey activities; 3. Development of landuse suitability modelling framework for sugar cane drawing on these available data; 4. Application of model to selected case study areas and review of appropriateness of approach and; 5. Discussion concerning the adoption of the techniques used to guide further analyses like this and field surveys in the future. 5 2 Literature review 2.1 Introduction The process of establishing suitable sites for differing purposes varying from ecology, urban planning, agricultural development and many more can be regarded as an effective form of resource management. The method, popularly known as land suitability analyses, has been widely reported for various purposes. For the purpose of this study, critical analyses will be carried out to determine suitable locations for planting sugar cane at some study sites in north-east Nigeria in Taraba and Jigawa states. Five potential study sites were identified for this project and an evaluation of land suitability analyses was required to determine their potential for sugar cane cultivation. These locations were selected due to their close proximity to rivers, water availability being an important factor for sugar cane (Carr et al., 2010). In this part of Nigeria, historical irrigation used to be gravity-fed. However, nowadays pumping houses are used to lift up the water so areas adjacent to the rivers were considered acceptable for accessing sufficient water resources. Due to the limited time frame for this research project, only two of study sites were examined. (Table 1) describes the characteristics of the sites. 6 Table 1: Study sites description showing the selected ones for this project in highlight No. Study sites Climatic condition Area (Km2) Elevation Region (Meters) 1 Lau (Taraba Wetland area with state) about 1058mm – 438 120-255 North East 212 355-380 North East 233 170-805 North East 278 135-188 North East 492 49-205 Central Nigeria Over 1300mm annual rainfall 2 Hadeija (Jigawa Semi-arid region state) with about 600mm – 1000mm annual rainfall 3 Guyuk Tropical area with (Adamawa state) about 759mm – 1051mm annual rainfall 4 Giwano Tropical area with (Adamawa state) about 759mm – 1051mm annual rainfall 5 Ageni (Kogi Flood plain area state) with about 1100mm – 1300mm annual rainfall Several methods reported for suitability analyses and land evaluations have been assessed to guide the selection of an appropriate method for this study. The sections below consider the following themes: Land suitability and analyses; Sugar cane modelling, and; the Role of GIS in suitability analyses. 7 2.2 Land suitability and evaluation The requirement for determining where and how optimal sites should be identified for establishing a range of socio-economic activities has led to several methods being considered. Land suitability evaluation represents the process of identifying the potential of land for several uses and planning (Rasheed et al., 2009). Different variables have been considered for the purpose of determining land suitability for specific uses. Kumar et al. (2010) stated that, although land quality may vary from place to place approaches for assessing land suitability are based in the main on some combination of climate, soil topography and water availability. Dent et al. (1981) describe land evaluation as the estimation of land potential for alternative uses, including arable farming, livestock production and forestry. Assessing land potential is necessary for any land management operations to be successful. It is therefore necessary to acquire and analyse the qualities of a land before putting it to use. The need for land suitability evaluation is paramount as many other factors like urban expansion can exert negative impacts on the ecosystem. Coskun et al. (2008) describe urban growth as major driver in land use change, exerting a significant impact on both hydro-geomorphology and vegetation. Therefore, rational approaches should adopt a multi-criteria assessment on the land. The FAO (1976) outlined a number of fundamental tenets in the approach and methods used for land evaluation: Land suitability can be assessed and classified based on different uses; A multidisciplinary approach should be considered, and; Suitability assessment involves comparison for multiple land uses. Land suitability assessment has been used for several purposes. Abdel Kawy et al. (2013) identify that assessment of the suitability of land enables optimum crop development and increases productivity. The fitness of soils for land use cannot be determined without considering a range of other related environmental factors (FAO, 1976). 8 In order to identify potential land for crop production, many attribute variables (such as soil, climate, rainfall, proximity to places of interest etc.) are considered. These variables have been used in differing studies based on site location, availability of resources and preference. Assessing appropriate use of land for specific purposes can be seen an efficient way of directing optimal land use, considering land potential before establishing any activity on it so as to achieve the maximum benefit from the land. The use of land is thus not solely dependent on what the owner seeks to do with it, but also on land capability, which has several attributes including geology, soil, topography, hydrology (Bizuwerk et al., 2005). Abdel Kawy et al. (2013) identified soil suitability and availability of water to represent the main criteria for any crop cultivation from an economic standpoint. Other land qualities like erosion resistance, moisture availability, and accessibility should be taken into account during a decision making (FAO, 1976). Rasheed et al. (2009) suggested that the topography of an area (such as slope and drainage), as well as prevailing climatic conditions should be taken into account for evaluating land potential in growing sugar cane. 2.3 Sugar cane modelling Currently, the availability of domestic agricultural produce is unable to meet the demand of the fast growing population in Nigeria. The demand for sugar is not an exception and thus a critical land evaluation is required for adequate production. Due to lack of proper management, many agricultural activities do not yield up to the land’s full potential (Yinka et al., 2013), therefore careful considerations as to sugar cane requirements should be prioritized in identifying sites for growing sugar cane (Saccharum sp.). Sugar cane is widely cultivated around the world within tropical climate and humid regions thereby optimising photosynthesis (Lapola et al., 2009). It is cultivated on about 13 – 15 million hectares of land globally (Delgado et al, 2001). Sugarcane is highly efficient at converting sunlight into sugars. Brazil, India and China are its major producers. Cane is mainly seen as solely a source of sugar but it is also an 9 important source of biofuel in addition, leading to a constant increase in its global demand. Lapola et al. (2009) claim that besides producing sugar for human consumption, India produces 11 dm3 of ethanol produced from sugar cane, with the Indian Government’s aim to achieve 75 dm3 by 2015. With global demand for sugar, it is important that land potential for sugar cane be properly explored. Nigeria is not an exception and therefore aims to increase its sugar production to about 1.7 million tonnes by 2018 which will eventually cut down the annual $11 billion food import bill (Reuters, 2013). Sugar cane grows within a long period of time ranging across multiple seasons. It is therefore cultivated around the world from warm to humid regions (Carr et al., 2010). In order to model land suitability for sugar cane. Rasheed et al. (2009) stated that it is important to evaluate the soil in a given area for particular crop production under specific management system. Urban sprawl without planning has posed a great threat to developing the true potential of agricultural lands and therefore, rational land management is required. Different methods have been proposed to identify land suitability (Khoram et al., 2014). These have included, by example, the use of linear modelling, GIS, Remote Sensing, and SWAT models. (Table 2) summarises the different methods from the literature concerning sugar cane modelling. 10 Table 2: Showing a summary of different approaches considered in the search for suitable land for growing sugar cane. No. 1. Author Carr et al., 2010 Factors considered for Techniques/Methods Sugar cane modelling Used Plant water relation; crop CANEGRO Model water requirements; water productivity of land, and; irrigation systems. 2. Kumar et al., 2010 Soil texture; slope; soil Geographic moisture content; depth of Information Systems water table, and; soluble (GIS) salt content. 3. 4. Abdel Kawy et al., Climate; geomorphology; Automated Land 2012 geology; water resources, Evaluation System and; natural vegetation. (ALES) Slopes; water availability; Remote Sensing and soil temperature, and; Geographic rainfall. Information Systems Rasheed et al., 2009 (GIS) 5. 6. El Hajj et al., 2009 Santhi et al., 2005 Normalized Difference Remote Sensing; Vegetation Index (NDVI), Decision Support derived from satellite System and; Fuzzy images. Inference System. Crop growth; Irrigation Soil and Water operations, and; soil Assessment Tool properties. (SWAT) 11 Critical land evaluation should precede agricultural development in identifying tracts of land that meet crop-specific requirements. Where rainfall is a limitation, irrigation techniques are usually needed in farms to compensate for water inadequacy at some point during the growing period. This is especially the case for crops with a high demand for water like sugar cane. 2.3.1 Sugar cane and irrigation Specific irrigation planning is beyond the scope of this study. However, it is important to take note of the water requirements of sugar cane, acknowledging how this affects land suitability identification. The need for water is increasing and groundwater levels have been decreasing due to the immense sourcing of water for domestic and agricultural use in Nigeria where most people rely on digging pumps and wells for water, a scarcity of groundwater is fast developing and therefore making irrigated farming more difficult. A land suitability evaluation for irrigation can be complex and so needs an understanding of both the underlying geology and topographic nature of the land. Dent et al. (1981) noted infiltration rate, pH, carbonate and gypsum, among other factors, as comprising the basic soil characteristics to be considered for irrigation cultivation. For ease of irrigation scheduling and maintenance, computer software is employed to make the process quicker and more reliable. Programmes like IRRICANE (Singels et al., 1998) and CANEGRO (Carr et al., 2010) are very popular and have been widely used. Some of the major types of irrigation techniques are as follows: Surface irrigation; Sub surface irrigation; Drip irrigation; Furrow irrigation and; Sprinkler irrigation. 12 Among the five sites listed, Lau (Taraba state) and Hadeija (Jigawa state) were considered for this project due to their close proximity to rivers and distinct topographic nature (wet and dry land respectively). These contrasting distinctions allow for comparison of the results and an understanding as to what criteria play more significant roles in determining suitable land for sugar cane. 2.4 Role of GIS in suitability modelling Researchers have increasingly adopted geographical data in playing a more vital role rather than solely statistical parameters in suitability analyses (Rozenstein et al., 2011). In recent time this has permitted the development of sophisticated GIS analyses. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) comprise a computer-based program capable of acquiring, analysing, managing geographical data and giving visual representation of the real world as output maps. Its ability to combine data from different sources with spatial reference has made it convenient for use (Masser, 1998). GIS in suitability analyses was rooted from the early 20th century by American landscape architects using hand drawn overlay techniques (Steinitz et al., 1976) which preceded using computer software to generate digital maps presenting results from suitability modelling. Land use suitability modelling is one of the most important functions in GIS (Malczewski, 2004). GIS has played a major role in planning and management with its ability to manage substantive amounts of data (ESRI, 2012) and one of its most useful applications is suitability mapping of a given scenario (McHarg, 1969). Ecologists have mapped suitable locations for many habitats. Suitable land for agriculture has also been identified using GIS-aided suitability analyses (Paiboonsak et al., 2007). The ability of GIS to reclassify and overlay data to meet multiple requirements is very powerful and this has been applied to many fields like agriculture, urban planning, ecology and many more. With several GIS classification models such as fuzzy modelling (Nisar et al, 2000), it is possible to evaluate appropriately the suitability of farms for silage corn 13 production considering soil and climatic factors when put into the GIS software for analyses (Houshyar et al., 2014). Kumar et al. (2009) noted that there has been an increase in GIS approach for crop-specific modelling, integrating both soil and climatic data. The use of GIS in suitability analyses is on an increase and highly demandable (McHarg, 1969). A comparison between old methods of suitability classification and contemporary GIS, clearly showed GIS to be time saving technique that produces data with higher quality with possibilities of locating newer potential sites (Liengsakul et al., 1993). GIS allows for a multi-criteria technique to be used to create suitability maps for specific uses. Malczewski (2006) utilized this approach with both boolean overlay and weighted linear combination in order to determine land use potentials. Though most GIS-based land suitability analyses are expressed in the form of boolean overlay, Malczewski (2006) notes this approach lacks a properly defined mechanism for incorporating decision maker’s priorities into the analyses. Thus this study seeks to address the issue by employing both a multi-criteria with hierarchical classification and a vector based analyses for comparison. 2.5 Conclusion To correctly allocate and manage land, a multi-criteria approach should be adopted, and several processes - both computer-aided and in-field data collection - should be undertaken based on the planning purpose. The literature reveals a number of previous studies implementing methods to analyse soil and land suitability for sugar cane cultivation. This study builds on these approaches by not only seeking to identify suitable sites for growing sugar cane based on contemporary data but also: Drawing on legacy data and integrating this with contemporary data using GIS/RS techniques to help understand the temporal changes within the study area thereby, assisting in making better decision. 14 3 Materials and methods In order to accomplish the objectives for this project, it was necessary to source all relevant and available data, and then establish how best to incorporate these within a GIS environment for the analyses. This section outlines the data collection and methodology used to determine land suitability for sugar cane in the study areas. (Fig. 7.) describes the procedure adopted for this research. The sequences of tasks undertaken to achieve the goal of this project are outlined below: Identification of study area; Assessment of suitability modelling technique; Data sourcing; Data preparation and analyses, and; Crop suitability model implementation. 3.1 Study area Two study areas were selected for this research so as to provide the basis for a comparative, critical assessment determining the best possible locations to grow sugar cane. The study sites are selected due to their proximity to riverine water supplies, as well as the potential availability of the land for acquisition. A description of the two study areas, Lau Tau, and Hadeija are provided. 3.1.1 The Lau Tau study area The delineated study area is situated at coordinates 9° 4’ 0” North and 11° 6’ 0” East in a small town called Lau Tau which is in the north-eastern part of Nigeria, occupying about 438 Km2. Its elevation lies between 120m – 251m above sea level with most of the land surface being considerably flat (Fig. 1.). It lies just to the south of the Benue River, having a predominant clay-rich soil and an underlying geology of shale, marine facies, mudstone and limestone. The area is just to the north of the Taraba state capital and its inhabitants are hausa-fulani by tribe with farming and cattle trading as their major source of income. This area, 15 and its neighbouring states, has been identified by the Nigerian Sugar Development Council as the sugar cane belt. Fig. 1. Delineation of the Lau Tau study area 3.1.2 The Hadeija study area This study area is located at 12° 29’ 0” North and 9° 44’ 0” in the north-eastern part of Nigeria with an elevation raging between 357m – 378m above sea level. The soil type is mostly loamy sand with geology mostly classified as sandstone and a little amount of clay, its inhabitant’s major activities are farming and fishing. This area occupies about 212 Km2, having a relatively flat topographic nature (Fig. 2.). The study area is north of the Hadeija River, which serves as a major source of water for the local people. 16 Fig. 2. Delineation of the Hadeija study area 3.2 Suitability modelling technique Various methods for land suitability have been trialled, each having its own flaws. An appropriate suitability method was adopted based on what data is available and the area of interest. Some techniques were identified during this research (Table 2) after which the weighted overlay method was chosen for this study as this was readily available and allows for a multi criteria assessment, accepts data in different resolutions and analyses these thematic layers based on a user defined weighting which can be useful to determine the importance of each parameter used (Raid et al., 2011). The weighted overlay approach was assessed along with the traditional boolean method for comparison. 3.3 Data sourcing Land suitability analyses in this research seek to use GIS and remote sensing to perform a multi criteria analyses, requiring several data inputs. Due to the nature 17 of this research, only freely available data were used. Below are brief descriptions of the key data used for this project: Historic cartographic maps and report based information; The WOSSAC archive (www.wossac.com) at Cranfield University represents a good source of data containing both paper maps and reports written by field surveyors for one of the selected study areas. These hold data about the geology of the area and the soil classification used; they were collected from the field between 1967 – 1969 by (Klinkenberg, 1967). SRTM Digital Elevation Model (90m resolution); This is a high resolution global scale radar satellite derived elevation model provided by NASA showing the height of places above sea level. The SRTM data proved helpful in describing the topographic character of the study area. FAO Harmonised World Soil Database (HWSD); The FAO Harmonised World Soil Database (HWSD) (De Witte et al., 2013) is freely accessible online provided at a scale of 1:1million a coarse resolution dataset not suitable for fine localized assessments. However, the attribute database attached to the soil data was accessed and used to complete some data gaps required for the land suitability analyses. Landsat 8 satellite images (30m resolution). Landsat 8 data was sourced from the USGS where long-term temporal data for the whole world is available online. The study areas in this project covered Path: 188, Row: 51 and Path: 186, Row: 54 of the world referencing system. 3.4 Data preparation and analyses In order to analyse the available data for sugar cane requirements, it was necessary to first assemble the data and organize them in a geospatial database for proper management. The data were derived and classified to meet the suggested requirements for sugar cane as outlined below. The datasets assembled for the selected classification are: 18 I. Soil data; II. Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); III. Landforms; IV. Slope. 3.4.1 Creating a primary database Two spatial databases were created in ArcGIS for each study area, using the spatial reference UTM Zone 32N projection. All the datasets were prepared and populated within the database. The vector data were stored in a feature dataset within the database to retain a standard of data management and easy identification. The purpose of this geodatabase is to permit the whole work flow to be tracked, as well as for the efficient management of the data. The database can store both spatial data and non-spatial database tables to support the modelling procedures in producing final outputs. 3.4.2 Preparing the soil map For the Lau Tau study area, a legacy cartographic soil map obtained from the WOSSAC archive (www.wossac.com) was produced from a field survey by Klinkenberg, (1964 - 1968), alongside a comprehensive accompanying report, also located in the WOSSAC collection. This map was raster scanned into a digital form and was then georeferenced to match its real position on ground. The map was then subsequently vector digitised, using the topology tool to undertake an error check to ensure sure the digitising undertaken was accurate. After the map was digitised and georeferenced, both the map legend and accompanying report were also read to extract the relevant information (e.g. geology, soil texture, soil characteristics) which were transcribed into the layers attribute table. However, it proved difficult to undertake this process to extract the information, as some soil units were omitted from the map legend, requiring consultation with soil survey experts (pers comm. Dr. Ian Baillie; Mr. Brian Kerr) who had on the ground experience from this region, being able to help determine what the missing map units could be. The missing soil unit in the legend was later 19 identified as being relatively capable of growing sugar cane as there was a capability rating table with this information in Klinkenberg’s report. The missing unit was labelled for identification purpose. (Fig. 3.) shows the soil map of Lau Tau after being digitised and georeferenced. Fig. 3. Showing Lau Tau soil map 3.4.3 Preparing the NDVI map The NDVI maps for both study areas were derived from the Landsat 8 data, where a cloud free image was downloaded from the online USGS archive. Images taken from vegetation peak period (August 2013) were sought initially to prepare the scene target. However, it was established that this period did not have a cloud free image and thus only the months of September and November were available cloud free. NDVI is a common vegetative index highlighting the combination of the red and near infrared bands in help determine the ‘greenness’ (e.g. vigour) of vegetation in a given area. NDVI is used to help discriminate healthy and non-healthy 20 vegetation - useful for land evaluation (Yunhao et al., 2006). The formula for calculating the NDVI is: NDVI = (NIR_BAND – RED_BAND) / (NIR_BAND + RED_BAND) (1) In order to calculate the NDVI the raw digital numbers collected from the satellite sensors were converted to radiance, then to ‘Top of Atmosphere’ reflectance, this conversion was undertaken to correct for any atmospheric distortion and so effectively to quantify the amount of reflectance from the earth to the sensor. (Fig. 4.) shows the NDVI maps for both study areas as well as the area equations executed to derive both spectral radiance and reflectance. DN to at sensor spectral radiance: 𝑳𝑴𝑨𝑿𝝀 −𝑳𝑴𝑰𝑵𝝀 𝑳𝝀 = (𝑸 𝒄𝒂𝒍𝒎𝒂𝒙 −𝑸𝒄𝒂𝒍𝒎𝒊𝒏 ) (𝑸𝒄𝒂𝒍 − 𝑸𝒄𝒂𝒍𝒎𝒊𝒏 ) + 𝑳𝑴𝑰𝑵𝝀 (2) Spectral radiance to TOA reflectance: 𝝆𝝀 = 𝝅.𝑳𝝀 .𝒅𝟐 𝑬𝑺𝑼𝑵𝝀 .𝒄𝒐𝒔𝜽𝒔 (3) Where 𝐿𝜆 = Spectral radiance at the sensor's aperture [W/(m2 sr μm)] 𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑙 = Quantized calibrated pixel value [DN] 𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑚𝑖𝑛 = Minimum quantized calibrated pixel value corresponding to LMINλ [DN] 𝑄𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑚𝑎𝑥 = Maximum quantized calibrated pixel value corresponding to LMAXλ [DN] 𝐿𝑀𝐼𝑁𝜆 = Spectral at-sensor radiance that is scaled to Qcalmin [W/(m2 sr μm)] 𝐿𝑀𝐴𝑋𝜆 = Spectral at-sensor radiance that is scaled to Qcalmax [W/(m2 sr μm)] 𝜌𝜆 = Planetary TOA reflectance [unitless] 𝜋= Mathematical constant equal to ~3.14159 [unitless] 21 𝑑= Earth–Sun distance [astronomical units] 𝐸𝑆𝑈𝑁𝜆 = Mean exoatmospheric solar irradiance [W/(m2 μm)] 𝜃𝑠 = Solar zenith angle [degrees] Fig. 4. NDVI maps for both Hadeija and Lau Tau study areas 3.4.4 Preparing the landforms map The available data at this stage was limited and therefore efforts were made to extract more information where possible from the available resources at hand. Therefore a “SOTER like” methodology (Pourabdolloh et al., 2012) was adopted to derive the landforms of the study areas taking into account the slope, relief intensity and elevation. Landforms can produce accurate and timely information which will help in decision making and planning (SOTER). The soil and terrain methodology (SOTER) had its ideology from Russia and Germany with an aim of creating a digital database for the World’s soil and terrain which should help in determining the landscape. The predefined thresholds for running this procedure have been altered as SOTER is designed for continental and national scales and 22 this research is only focusing on small areas, see (Fig. 5.) showing the landforms for both study areas. Fig. 5. Landforms for both Hadeija and Lau Tau study areas using the “SOTER-like” method (see appendix for full legend) 3.4.5 Preparing the slope map To better evaluate the land and its characteristics it is essential to determine slope (Rasheed et al., 2009). The topography of the land is a key factor in determining what crop can be grown on what slope level. This research therefore incorporates the slope map into the overlay analyses to determine sugar cane suitability sites. To derive the slope grid map, the digital elevation model was hydrologically corrected using the fill tool in ArcGIS and then the slope tool was executed and calibrated to produce a slope map with the percentage rise of the area slope. This was then reclassified to meet its part of the sugar cane requirement. (Fig. 6.) shows the slope maps derived for both study areas. 23 Fig. 6. Slope maps for both Hadeija and Lau Tau study areas 24 INPUT DATA LEGACY CARTOGRAPHY MAP LANDSAT 8 MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SRTM DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL PROJECTION TO UTM 32N GIS DATABASE SOIL PARAMETER NDVI PARAMETER LANDFORMS PARAMETER SLOPE PARAMETER RECLASSIFICATION TO MEET SUGAR CANE REQUIREMENTS RECLASSIFIED PARAMETERS FOR ANALYSIS 1. Soil texture; 2. NDVI values; 3. Landforms main soil and; 4. Slope percentage. GIS WEIGHTED OVERLAY ANALYSIS SUGAR CANE SUITABILITY MAP BOOLEAN LOGIC OVERLAY Fig. 7. Flowchart of the methodology used for this project 3.5 Crop suitability model implementation Once the available data required for the analyses was assembled, an overlay method was used to determine sugar cane suitability sites. To execute this 25 process the ArcGIS weighted overlay tool was used and each parameter was given a weighting percentage. This approach was adopted in order to assign some parameters a priority over others. Following this, the boolean method was executed for comparison and checks made between both methods. The FAO crop suitability classification standard (FAO 1976) was adopted to help classify the suitability of land in a hierarchical order. The following is the rating technique used in the assessment: S1 – Not suitable S2 – Marginally suitable S3 – Moderately suitable S4 – Highly suitable 3.5.1 Reclassifying the datasets To combine several datasets with differing ranges and values, a reclassification process was taken in order to get all the data into similar categorical classes to be passed into the land suitability model. The datasets were classified to meet the requirements for optimal sugar cane growth highlighted in (Table 3). This drew upon the reported literature as well as personal contact and advice from experts in this field (pers comm. Dr. Ian Baillie; Mr. Brian Kerr). 3.5.2 Weighting the datasets The reclassified datasets used in the weighted overlay model play a vital role in determining suitable sites for growing sugar cane. It was therefore necessary to assign each thematic layer a percentage of influence in the analyses (Long et al., 2006). This is not a straightforward process, as in a multi criteria analyses such as this variables can be used differently therefore a personal consultation with an expert in sugar cane modelling was undertaken (pers comm. Dr. Ian Baillie) with advice on running several models with different weightings seen in (Table 4). 26 Table 3: Criteria for assessing sugar cane requirements NB: The thresholds are subject to particular study areas PARAMETERS Highly Moderately Marginally Not suitable suitable suitable suitable Slope 0 – 2% 2 – 3% 3 – 5% >5% Soil texture C, LS-SCL-L S-LS-SL, C-LS-S, SL-SCL, “OK” L-LS LS-C Vertisols - Rocky soils > 0.5 > 0.3 <= 0.3 CL-C Landforms Ferruginous main soil tropical soils (FTS) NDVI > 0.6 Table 4: Showing weighting assigned to the 5 map outputs Map No. Soil Texture Landform Slope NDVI Main Soils 1 25% 25% 25% 25% 2 30% 30% 30% 10% 3 40% 30% 10% 20% 4 25% 40% 25% 10% 5 30% 10% 30% 30% 3.6 Conclusion This approach has proved promising and being advantageous over the traditional boolean method. A combination of local knowledge expertise and the semi- 27 automated process of weighted overlay method makes it a flexible procedure in terms of querying the different datasets and assigning priority to the layers for comparison and validity check of the work done. 28 4 Results and discussion 4.1 Model outputs The weighted overlay and boolean “true or false” methods were undertaken to help assess the study areas. This produced an output of thematic layers showing the suitability classes arising from the interaction of the parameters used in the modelling process. The results from the weighted overlay shows for the most part, the area as being moderately suitable while no portion of the land is actually classified as unsuitable - based on the datasets used for this project. Conversely, the boolean method identifies most of the land as being marginally suitable. This is assumed to be as a result of the rigid form of assessment (true or false) inherent in the traditional boolean method. Due to the flexibility of the weighted overlay, several suitability maps were derived using different percentage weighting on the input parameters utilized. This was able to help in prioritizing some data themes over others. However, regardless of the weightings, it was understood that most of the area still ranges between marginally to moderately suitable with little to no highly suitable areas for growing sugar cane. (Fig. 8.) Shows the different outputs from the weighted overlay and boolean method and (Figure 9) shows the area distribution of the suitability classes from both methods used. 29 Fig. 8. Showing models outputs using the traditional boolean method (fig. a) and fig. (b-f) showing results derived from the weighted overlay model 30 Lau Tau Suitability Classes Quantified in Hectares 40 Thousands (Hectares) 35 30 25 20 Boolean logic 15 Weighted Overlay 10 5 0 Not Suitable Marginally Moderately Suitable Suitable Highly Suitable Figure 9: Showing area distribution of Lau Tau study area based on the suitability classes 4.2 Associated challenges This research was conducted as a rapid ‘desk-based’ assessment with all data being remotely acquired, with only the soil data being is a historic map collected from a field survey (Klinkenberg, 1967). Therefore some challenges were encountered during this research which added to knowledge. The difficulties experienced during this project are outlined below: 4.2.1 Collecting soil data The WOSSAC archive at Cranfield University (www.wossac.com) holds a vast amount of global historic data which can be very useful to integrate in a contemporary analyses like this however, some challenges also comes with such data as this has been collected a very long time ago with probably no access to the original author (Hallett et al., 2011; 2006). The problems at this point were the soils are mapped as associations and not series with a scale of 1:100,000 31 therefore having a broad information as to the soil texture and other characteristics within the landforms though personal contacts with soil experts (pers comm. Dr. Ian Baillie; Mr. Brian Kerr) were made to help identify missing information in the historic data and this was made possible by the aid of visual interpretation from aerial photographs of the area and their field experiences. 4.2.2 Collecting digital elevation model The digital elevation model proved highly applicable for this project in helping distinguish between landforms and to characterize the topography (Fig. 10.). The data’s resolution is expressed on a 96x96m grid and mapping detailed information was not ideal, although it was found useful as a first step in guiding future surveys within other farm sites. Fig. 10. Hadeija and Lau Tau’s Digital Elevation Model over a hillshade model 4.2.3 Deriving landforms from the DEM Data availability for key land characteristics was limited for the study sites. To better evaluate the land, expert’s advice was sought as a means of establishing a 32 way of understanding the morphology of the land and what the land characteristics might be and its formation. As a result, the Soil and Terrain Database (SOTER) method was adopted (ISRIC, 2014) to help determine the geomorphology of the study areas thereby delineating between the derived landforms (e.g. river plains, highlands etc.). To do this, the DEM was manipulated in GIS to derive 4 thematic layers (Slope, Relief intensity, Hypsometry and Potential drainage density) using a “SOTER-like” methodology as the full SOTER method could not be adopted in the study area to discriminate features as it is designed for a global scale (1:1million) while these study areas are 30 kilometres across. The “SOTER like” method used for this project was found very helpful in discriminating between landforms and this, with the aid of visual interpretation from Google earth and Landsat imageries, was combined with expert knowledge (pers comm. Dr. Ian Baillie) to determine the major soil types of the land could be (e.g. FTS or Vertisols), as seen in (Figure 11.). This was included in the model to help determine potential sugar cane plantations. It should be borne in mind that this methodology requires some local knowledge of the study area in terms of the labelling of outputs as the topographic characteristics might not mean the same thing in different places. This was experienced in whereby a “River plain” in Lau Tau area was not replicated in the second site in Hadeija, being a much drier area. The methodology therefore can be described as a semi-automated ‘guided’ approach – however, this approach is pragmatic where substantive local datasets are not available, this often being the case in African studies. 33 Figure 11: Delineated landforms types of Lau Tau study area 34 4.2.4 Soil moisture data Soil moisture can be useful for land evaluation. One source of this data is from microwave remote sensing. Appropriate data was obtained freely at (www.esasoilmoisyture-cci.org). The global soil moisture data was downloaded in the NetCDF format which was converted to a raster grid file using the BEAM application provided by ESA. Although this data was intended to serve as one of the parameters in the land evaluation analyses, due to the coarse resolution at which this data was derived in (global scale at 27km2 grid size), it was deemed inadmissible for the purpose of this research as the study areas are covered in just one pixel as seen in (Figure 12) and thereby having one value across the study area. 4.2.5 Collecting rainfall data One of sugar cane’s major requirements is adequate water supply. The project therefore sought to source rainfall data to help in the assessment. Unfortunately, most of these data also do not have a suitable spatial resolution for the study sites in this project (about 27km2 grid sizes) as the whole or half of the areas are covered in just one pixel thereby having just one value of rainfall which cannot help in discriminating rainfall distribution. The study areas are small and therefore would have same amount of rainfall across. Generalised rainfall data was therefore considered as insufficient. 35 Figure 12: Showing study areas falling into one pixel of the soil moisture data 4.3 Methods adopted During this research a range of GIS and Remote techniques, outlined below, were attempted to help evaluate the study areas, some of these proved useful. Mostly issues arose due to the limited area of the study sites. The following section outlines the analyses that were conducted but that were ultimately excluded in the final assessment. 4.3.1 Solar irradiance map Solar irradiance was initially intended to form part of the analyses for determining suitable lands. However, after the results were derived it was realised that the sun hour duration per day was broadly similar across the study area (with just few minutes between the highest and lowest areas) as shown in (Figure 13.). This was deemed insufficient for discriminating between suitable lands. It is however a requirement for sugar cane and this method can very well be adopted for larger geographical areas which will have variations is the daily amount of sun hours and so further analyses can be made. Solar irradiance was created from the digital elevation model using the area solar radiation tool in ArcGIS. This was calibrated for the local sun angle over 36 one year to produce an accurate figure for solar radiation which was given in wh/m2. In order to convert this to represent duration of sun hours per day, conversions were made to the derived solar radiation. The standard unit conversion adopted was 1kwh/m2 being equal to 1 peak hour of sun (www.pveducation.org). Since the result were in wh/m2, it was divided by 1,000 to get kwh/m2 and then divided by 365 days which then gives a daily sun hours received by the whole study area per square meter. Figure 13: Solar irradiance maps showing daily sun hours received for the study areas 4.3.2 NDVI vs. EVI Some vegetation indices were derived from Landsat data which helped in differentiating between the greenness of vegetation and un-vegetated areas (bare soil or built up areas), both indices were calculated and had a minimal difference in the index values (Figure 14.), during this research it was noted that 37 NDVI can easily become saturated in its reflectance and therefore cannot easily distinguish patches of bare soils between vegetation. By contrast, the EVI technique tends to discriminate changes in vegetation growth and soil contamination but this was not very significant in the study areas as most of the land is flat and therefore little topographic variation, these indices are however just flagging green areas and not crop specific potentials which could mean high index values are just canopy cover of trees and not really suitable for planting sugar cane or any other crop. Figure 14: NDVI and EVI maps of Lau Tau study area 4.4 Implications This research has been able to identify the importance of bringing legacy data from previous surveys into present assessments, highlighting how such data can be translated. The incorporation of historical with contemporary data has proved useful for segmenting the areas of interest based on the available data – however, there is further work that can be undertaken to develop this approach, but it does provide a useful commencement point for land suitability assessment 38 screening approaches used to guide a full ground survey. Also the use of existing legacy data can be seen as allowing for an accurate and cost effective approach. The methodology finally selected has determined the possibility of blending historic data, contemporary data and experiential advice to provide a rational basis for land assessment and a basis for future soil and other field survey activities. 39 5 Recommendations The methods and approach used for this project have proved useful for the purpose of segmenting lands to discover their potentials in which case has been applied to specific study sites for the purpose of this research and can be utilised for further investigations. It is however recommended that the outlined actions be adopted which in turn be of great benefit to the growing of sugar cane for sustainable development. The introduction of GIS and Remote Sensing for monitoring and managing the sugar cane farms is highly recommended for further farm management and precision agriculture, this technique will enable for easy data collection, storage and analyses to help manage the farming activities which can be cost effective and convenient for monitoring the crop growing cycle. Collection of temporal and real time data for climate, rainfall and vegetation healthiness will prove very useful for further analyses within the farms as this will be used for present and future planning for optimal crop production. Sugar cane has a long growing season and therefore, it is recommended that irrigation systems are planned for to compensate water loss in the soil for optimal crop growth which will hopefully result to high amount of yield. Most of the soils within the study area are presumed to be vertisols, which are often characterised as heavy clay like soils and can be difficult to manage for irrigation purposes. Therefore a close monitoring and precise irrigation system is required to avoid over or under water applications. Implementation of the techniques used in this project to guide further surveys, it is also important that specialists in this area are involved to easily use the remote sensing software for image processing of the farms to identify areas needing more fertilizer or water which again has proved cost effective to farmers all over the world. 40 Below is a list of data that should be acquired in order to increase the opportunity of high yield at the end of every growing season: I. High resolution soil data for all farms; II. Extend this method to assess other study sites; III. Integrate local knowledge with this semi-automated process to yield better results; IV. Temporal climatic data for farm sites (e.g. rainfall) as this can be useful for yield prediction; V. High resolution digital terrain model for detailed topographic analysis; VI. Temporal satellite images which are freely available from Landsat though higher resolution images may be required for precision; VII. Software to keep and manipulate all field related data collected for farm management (e.g. ArcGIS, Quantum GIS, Erdas Imagine, Idrisi etc.); VIII. Adopt this method for initial research which will guide towards more robust outcomes and; IX. Groundwater status, this can be collected using instruments like HERON which is installed on the ground to continuously produce groundwater levels to keep track of the water availability for precise farm management. 41 6 Conclusion This project has sought to analyse one of the approaches in the literature within the variety of land evaluation techniques, with the numerous methods applicable to land suitability analyses it was however possible to imitate a feasible method within the given time of this research. Data assembling was possible using GIS to build a spatial database holding several datasets including soil, contemporary and historic data with attribute tables in order to identify potential sugar cane sites for sustainable production. The FAO land evaluation framework was adopted for this project which was integrated with the above mentioned datasets acquired and it was found useful for this project, it was observed that a lot can be achieved by combining both legacy cartographic data with contemporary techniques to help in land suitability analyses. A GIS based traditional boolean and weighted overlay method was applied to the produced thematic layers which helped in the process of segmenting the land based on suitability classes for sugar cane. In this research, a GIS weighted overlay method proved more advantageous over the traditional boolean method in combining several data to help in a multicriteria decision analyses with potential of it being extended to other areas. This project therefore hopes to serve as an initial approach to land suitability analyses and guide towards field survey activities in order to effectively make decisions and how further land management can be made. 42 REFERENCES Abdel Kawy, W. 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Below is the code written in notepad++ and then inserted to the ArcGIS field calculator: Recode( !Slope!, !Relief_intensity!, !Elevation! ) def Recode(A,B,D): text = "" # Hypsometry if (D == 1): text = text + "River plain " elif (D == 2): text = text + "Lowlands " elif (D == 3): text = text + "Valley floor " elif (D == 4): text = text + "Midslopes " elif (D == 5): text = text + "Mid plateau " elif (D >= 6 and D <= 9): text = text + "High slopes " elif (D == 10): text = text + "High plateau " # Relief Intensity if (B == 1): text = text + "on flat land " elif (B == 2): text = text + "on gentle land " elif (B == 3): text = text + "on rough land " elif (B == 4): text = text + "on hillpeak land " # Slope if (A >= 1 and A <=3): text = text + "with gentle slopes" elif (A >= 4 and A <=5): text = text + "with mid slopes" elif (A > 5): text = text + "with steep slopes" return text A 1-3 Gentle slope 4-5 Mid slope 6-7 Steep slope B 1 2 3 4 Flatland Gentle Rough Peak D 1 River plain 2 Lowlands 3 Valley floor 4 Midslopes 5 Mid plateau 6-9 High slopes 10 High plateau 48 A.2 Landforms legend for both study areas The figure below shows the resultant legend from the use of above python code. 49 Hadeija Landform Units High slopes on flat land with gentle slopes High slopes on flat land with mid slopes High slopes on gentle land with gentle slopes High slopes on gentle land with mid slopes High slopes on gentle land with steep slopes High slopes on hillpeak land with gentle slopes High slopes on hillpeak land with mid slopes High slopes on hillpeak land with steep slopes High slopes on rough land with gentle slopes High slopes on rough land with mid slopes High slopes on rough land with steep slopes Lowlands on flat land with gentle slopes Lowlands on flat land with mid slopes Lowlands on flat land with steep slopes Lowlands on gentle land with gentle slopes Lowlands on gentle land with mid slopes Lowlands on gentle land with steep slopes Lowlands on hillpeak land with gentle slopes Lowlands on hillpeak land with mid slopes Lowlands on hillpeak land with steep slopes Lowlands on rough land with gentle slopes Lowlands on rough land with mid slopes Lowlands on rough land with steep slopes Mid plateau on flat land with gentle slopes Mid plateau on flat land with mid slopes Mid plateau on flat land with steep slopes Mid plateau on gentle land with gentle slopes Mid plateau on gentle land with mid slopes Mid plateau on gentle land with steep slopes Mid plateau on hillpeak land with gentle slopes Mid plateau on hillpeak land with mid slopes Mid plateau on hillpeak land with steep slopes Mid plateau on rough land with gentle slopes Mid plateau on rough land with mid slopes Mid plateau on rough land with steep slopes Midslopes on flat land with gentle slopes Midslopes on flat land with mid slopes Midslopes on flat land with steep slopes Midslopes on gentle land with gentle slopes Midslopes on gentle land with mid slopes Midslopes on gentle land with steep slopes Midslopes on hillpeak land with gentle slopes Midslopes on hillpeak land with mid slopes Midslopes on hillpeak land with steep slopes Midslopes on rough land with gentle slopes Midslopes on rough land with mid slopes Midslopes on rough land with steep slopes River plain on flat land with gentle slopes River plain on flat land with mid slopes River plain on flat land with steep slopes River plain on gentle land with gentle slopes River plain on gentle land with mid slopes River plain on gentle land with steep slopes River plain on hillpeak land with mid slopes River plain on hillpeak land with steep slopes River plain on rough land with gentle slopes River plain on rough land with mid slopes River plain on rough land with steep slopes Valley floor on flat land with gentle slopes Valley floor on flat land with mid slopes Valley floor on flat land with steep slopes Valley floor on gentle land with gentle slopes Valley floor on gentle land with mid slopes Valley floor on gentle land with steep slopes Valley floor on hillpeak land with gentle slopes Valley floor on hillpeak land with mid slopes Valley floor on hillpeak land with steep slopes Valley floor on rough land with gentle slopes Valley floor on rough land with mid slopes Valley floor on rough land with steep slopes 50 Lau Tau Landform Units High plateau on hillpeak land with gentle slopes High plateau on hillpeak land with mid slopes High plateau on hillpeak land with steep slopes High slopes on hillpeak land with gentle slopes High slopes on hillpeak land with mid slopes High slopes on hillpeak land with steep slopes High slopes on rough land with gentle slopes High slopes on rough land with mid slopes High slopes on rough land with steep slopes Lowlands on flat land with gentle slopes Lowlands on flat land with mid slopes Lowlands on flat land with steep slopes Lowlands on gentle land with gentle slopes Lowlands on gentle land with mid slopes Lowlands on gentle land with steep slopes Mid plateau on gentle land with gentle slopes Mid plateau on gentle land with mid slopes Mid plateau on gentle land with steep slopes Mid plateau on rough land with gentle slopes Mid plateau on rough land with mid slopes Mid plateau on rough land with steep slopes Midslopes on gentle land with gentle slopes Midslopes on gentle land with mid slopes Midslopes on gentle land with steep slopes Midslopes on rough land with gentle slopes Midslopes on rough land with mid slopes Midslopes on rough land with steep slopes River plain on flat land with gentle slopes River plain on flat land with mid slopes River plain on flat land with steep slopes Valley floor on gentle land with gentle slopes Valley floor on gentle land with mid slopes Valley floor on gentle land with steep slopes 51 Appendix B B.1 Modelling in ArcGIS Below are the model graphics derived for the steps taken, the model builder was not only useful for the purpose of modelling the case study but also helped to keep track and automate all the processes again when needed. 52 Modelling sugar cane suitability using ArcGIS model builder (Traditional boolean and weighted overlay method) 53 Deriving hydrologic features like slope, streams, flow accumulation, flow direction) using ArcGIS model builder 54 Modelling NDVI and EVI using ArcGIS model builder 55 Modelling landforms based on the SOTER ‘like’ method adopted for this project (layers were labelled in the standard SOTER naming convention for consistency) 56 B.2 Legacy soil cartography data (WOSSAC) The legacy data used for this project was both a paper map and a report which explained the map and how it has been derived. The scanned paper map is shown below: Scanned legacy map before being digitised and georeferenced in ArcGIS 57
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