Facilitating Group Decisionmaking with the
MACBETH Sociotechnical Approach
Carlos A. Bana e Costa
Department of Engineering and Management of IST,
Technical University of Lisbon
Operational Research Group, Department of Management
London School of Economics and Political Science
http://web.ist.utl.pt/carlosbana
1
From Larry Phillips’s presentation:
Strategy & Socio-technical design
2
3
4
Application context: Public Strategic Planning
Two Cases
„ Development of
„ Development of
a Long
L
T
Term Vision
Vi i
for
Puerto Rico 2025
the Social
th
S i lD
Development
l
t and
d
Human Rights Medium Term
Strategic Plan for
Pernambuco 2008-11
„ A comprehensive intervention
„ A focused intervention context
context
„ More than 100 stakeholders
„ About 30 actors involved
involved
5
PR 2025:
An government initiative to create convergence on
a strategy for Puerto Rico’s long-term future …
United States
Cuba
Mexico
Jamaica
Belize
Haiti
Dominican
Republic
Puerto
Rico
Honduras
Guatemala
El Salvador
Honduras
Costa
Rica
… engage community and private sector leaders
and provide for the participation of local experts
6
Pernambuco 2008-11:
An government initiative to create convergence on
a strategy for Pernambuco’s medium term
social development…
Pernambuco
… engage and align technical and political leaders of the new
Secretary of State for Social Development and Human Rights
(SEDSDH) and provide for the participation of local experts
7
What kind of approach?
Normative
Prescriptive
Constructive
Participation
→ a sociotechnical approach
Soft? Hard? Both: Smart
Strategic planning with
multi-criteria decision analysis and
decision conferencing
8
Social component: Methodological guidelines
Sociotechnical process design
Cherns, A. (1976). The Principles of sociotechnical design.
Human Relations, 29, 8, 783-792.
„ “Organizational objectives are best met [...] by the joint optimization of the
technical and the social aspects
aspects, thus exploiting the adaptability and
innovativeness of people in attaining goals instead of over-determining
technically the matter in which these goals should be attained.”
Requisite Decision Modelling
Phillips, L.D. (1984). A theory of requisite decision models.
Acta Psychologica, 56, 29-48.
„ Definition: Model is requisite when its form and content are sufficient to
resolve the issues of concern
concern. Model generation: Through iterative and
consultative interaction amongst specialists and key players, facilitated by an
impartial decision analyst.
Process Consultation
Schein, E. (1999). Process Consultation Revisited: Building the Helping Relationship.
„ The problem and the solution belong to the client not to the consultant.
9
The Decision Conferencing Process
Awareness
of issue
Prepare
-objectives
-participants
-calling note
Compare: Gut⇔Model
Key
Players
Explore
p
Issues
Build
Model
Explore
p
Model
Shared Understanding
Commitment
Actions
10
Design of the social process
11
2008-11
Client:
Secretary of Social Development and Human Rights (SEDSDH) of
the Government of the Brazilian State of Pernambuco
Objective of the intervention:
To help SEDSDH develop its medium term strategic plan
(PPA 2008-2001)
Methodology:
MACBETH socio-technical approach for strategic planning
Duration of the decision conferencing process:
Five consecutive days (from 11 to 15 June 2007)
Participants:
About thirty technical and political actors
12
Challenge: Design of a multicriteria interactive approach to
strategic planning with the direct involvement of politicians
„ The methodology should be so attractive as to get the politicians
tto be
b willing
illi to
t participate
ti i t in
i the
th process as representatives
t ti
off the
th
population and be prepared to be present in open discussion
sessions.
„ The methodology should be applied through workshops or decision
conferences organised in such a way that the effects of preferences
and choices taken by participants during the sessions would be
quickly reported in a friendly way. So that those effects could be
easily understood by all the participants, thus enabling collective
learning and the generation and debate of new ideas.
C.A. Bana e Costa et al., 2002
Multicriteria Approach for Strategic Town Planning: The Case of Barcelos
in D. Bouyssou et al (eds.), Aiding Decisions with Multiple Criteria, Kluwer (429-456).
13
Challenge
“Formulate, execute, monitor and evaluate,
along with the society and other
governmental entities, integrated public
policies in the field of social development
and
d human
h
rights
i ht which
hi h will
ill allow
ll
to
t
transform, in a conscientious and desired
way, the social reality of the pernanbucans
in a situation of vulnerability and risk”.
• 42% of the Pernanbucan population live with less then R$ 120,00/month
per capita, finding them selves in a situation of vulnerability due to
extreme or moderate poverty
• 33,3% are functional illiterates (15 years or older)
• The State of Pernambuco is the 8th economy among all 27 Brazilian
States, but one of the lowest Human Development Indexes and one of
the biggest Social Inequality Indexes
Way out:
Sustainable
emancipatory
policies
14
“Formulate, execute, monitor and evaluate,
along with the society and other
governmental entities, integrated public
policies in the field of social development
and human rights which will allow to
transform, in a conscientious and desired
way, the social reality of the pernanbucans
in a situation of vulnerability and risk”.
Challenge
• 42% of the Pernanbucan population live with less then R$ 120,00/month
per capita, finding them selves in a situation of vulnerability due to
extreme or moderate poverty
• 33,3% are functional illiterates (15 years or older)
• The State of Pernambuco is the 8th economy among all 27 Brazilian
States, but one of the lowest Human Development Indexes and one of
the biggest Social Inequality Indexes
Way out:
Sustainable
emancipatory
policies
15
Two panels: A Technical Panel and an
Evaluation Panel with well defined
responsibilities and tasks in the process
Participants
Tasks
• Structures the objectives
j
from
SEDSDH mission
• Technical experts
p
of
SEDSDH
• (representatives of
the seven entities
that integrate
SEDSDH
(departments and
institutes))
Technical Panel
3
days
• Organizes factual information
about the programs
• Political
decision-makers of
SEDSDH
• The secretary of
state and the subsecretaries (leaders
of the 7 units
merged in SEDSDH)
• Conceives intervention
actions (projects) and
structures coherent programs
(packages of projects) to
achieve the objectives
Evaluation Panel
• Validates and weights the
fundamental objectives
• Evaluates the extent to which
each program (package of
projects) contributes to
achieve the objectives
• Evaluates the doability of
each program
2
days
16
Two panels: A Technical Panel and an
Evaluation Panel with well defined
responsibilities and tasks in the process
Participants
Tasks
p
of
• Technical experts
SEDSDH
• Structures the objectives
j
from
SEDSDH mission
• (representatives of
the seven entities
that integrate
SEDSDH
(departments and
institutes))
• Conceives intervention
actions (projects) and
structures coherent programs
(packages of projects) to
achieve the objectives
Technical Panel
• Organizes factual information
about the programs
• Political
decision-makers of
SEDSDH
• The secretary of
state and the subsecretaries (leaders
of the 7 units
merged in SEDSDH)
3
days
Evaluation Panel
• Validates and weights the
fundamental objectives
• Evaluates the extent to which
each program (package of
projects) contributes to
achieve the objectives
• Evaluates the doability of
each program
2
days
Oysters
Pearls
White elephants
Bread and butter
Low
Overall Benefit
High
17
Low
Doability
High
18
3-days Structuring Decision Conference with Technical panel only
2-days Evaluation Decision Conference with the Evaluation Panel
Members of the Technical panel participated as observers in the
Evaluation Decision Conference
19
Technical component:
Several DSS used to support structuring & multicriteria
evaluation activities (Decision Explorer, STRAD, M-MACBETH
Equity)
20
Activity
Actividades
do projeto
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Example: Structuring the objectives
„ Group open-discussion of SEDSDH mission, major challenges and concerns
„ Each participant was asked to write (in post-its) the fundamental aspects, concerns and/or
objectives that
that, in his/her opinion
opinion, better explain the mission
„ Each participant was asked to place his/her own post-its in the wall, in such a way that the
post-its would form groups of similar concerns
21
Activity
Actividades
do projeto
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
„ The post-its were read out loud, one by one, and their meaning discussed. Actions were
separated from objectives. When agreed, each objective was entered in the Decision
Explorer software, to generate a first cognitive map.
„ This map represents the objectives written on the post-its as well means-ends relations
between them.
22
Activity
Actividades
do projeto
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Structuring of the underlying
fundamental objectives to the
SEDSDH’s mission (cont.)
„ After two days of work and group discussions, the technical panel agreed of the main
end-objectives and mean-objectives.
„ Three key objectives were later validated by the politicians and used to evaluate strategies
23
Technical component:
Multicriteria value measurement with MACBETH
www.M-MACBETH.com
24
25
26
27
28
29
Benchrk 2
Strategy B
Strategy A
Status Quo
30
31
32
MACBETH weighting procedure
Very strong
Strong
to
to
E t
Extreme
Very St
V
Strong
Sum=100%
Strong
to
V
Very
St
Strong
Qualitative swing judgements
33
2) to compare the difference in overall
value between any two swings (such
that the first is more attractive than
the second)
34
The Puerto Rico 2025 project was structured around four
phases
Project Phases
August – November 2003
EVALUATION/ASSESSMENT
• Where is Puerto Rico today?
“The need for action”
October 2003 – January 2004
VISION
• Where does Puerto Rico want to be
in 2025?
“The fundamental objectives”
January –March 2004
STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
• What are the strategies that will mostly
contribute to reach the vision?
“The strategies”
April – May 2004
IMPLEMENTATION LAUNCH
• Transfer responsibilities to the
independent entity
“The Launch”
35
Wildcards
Aug – Nov 2003
Oct – Dec 2003
Assessment
Visioning
Jan – Mar 2004
Apr – May 2004
Strategies:
development &
prioritization
Transition and
implementation
launch
United States
Where are we today?
Culture
Culture
Cuba
Mexico
Education
Social
development
Jamaica
Belize
Health
Haiti
Dominican
Republic
Puerto
Rico
Honduras
Guatemala
Public safety
El Salvador
Utilities
Infrastructure
/ environment
Honduras
Costa
C
t
Rica
Transport
• Strategic Plan:
• Implementation Plan
Land Use• and
Short-term actions
FullEnvironment
set of performance
(2004-08) and longmetrics and progressterm strategies Competitiveness,
tracking Productivity
mechanisms
(2009-25) required
to Connectivity
and
• Implementation entity
achieve desired
in place
Economic
Vision
Opportunities and Income
development
Innovation and Enterprise
36
Internal and external assessment of the current situation in each
sector. Example: SWOT Analysis of Puerto Rico’s Culture
Aug – Nov 2003
Oct – Dec 2003
Assessment
Visioning
Jan – Mar 2004
Apr – May 2004
Strategies:
development &
prioritization
Transition and
implementation
launch
Strengths
Weaknesses
• Puerto Ricans are amongst the most happy people in the
world according to a study published by the British magazine
New Scientist
• Puerto Rico has developed and exported to the world some
forms of unique cultural expressions
• Craftsmen and artisans in Puerto Rico have developed a
unique style, producing high quality craftsmanship and
utilizing very diverse materials and techniques
• Historical sites and colonial architecture in PR has few
parallels in the world
• The ICP among other cultural institutions is opening new
museums and fine art centres across the island
• Puerto Rico possesses a series of inherent strengths for film
production
• In many cases, the influence and, to a certain extent, the
assimilation of American values has occurred at the expense
of the traditional Puerto Rican culture
• Those who express pride about their traditional Puerto Rican
culture are often perceived as “anti-Americans”
• The unique relationship with the US is not explored
adequately to leverage funding alternatives, and to take
advantage of the market size in the US and the heritage link
with the Puerto Rican and Latino communities
• Despite some inherent strengths for film production, Puerto
Rico is perceived in the motion picture industry in the US as a
location without adequate infrastructure and with higher costs
than other places in the US and LA for intl. productions
• The fear of street criminality pushes the population away
from participating in ccultural
lt ral acti
activities
ities
• The cultural activities offered do not always match the real
demand of the community that will benefit from it, due to the
lack of communication with the society in the planning
process
Opportunities
• The exposure of youth to art expressions reduce the
probability of them incurring in risk-taking behaviour
• Turn Puerto Rico into:
• An international music production centre
• An international film production centre
• The Latin America art capital
Threats
• Puerto Rican culture is perceived in some US communities
as a second rate culture
• Lack of an adequate inclusion of the cultural topic in the
education curricula at all levels can end up accelerating the
process of assimilation of external influences in detriment of
the local culture and values
37
Activities
Example of the outcome of the visioning phase:
A statement of the Vision for Culture in 2025
Aug – Nov 2003
Oct – Dec 2003
Assessment
Visioning
Jan – Mar 2004
Apr – May 2004
Strategies:
development &
prioritization
Transition and
implementation
launch
• Understand PR’s current • Broad-based
• “Decision conferences”
• Identification of resources,
are aofpeople that,community
regardless of
where we may be,with
appreciate
thoseand
cultural values
that and timing required
situation inWe
terms
outreach
stakeholders
funding
contribute toand
the development
of solidarity, creativity,
tolerance, and diversity.for each initiative
economic, social and
input gathering
experts to
infrastructure/environment • Workshops and
— Identify and develop • Engagement/establishment
We make the most ofbrainstorming
our cultural heritage
and talent to policy
become
one oftothe main centers
of
development
with
options
of entities
responsible for
production
and distribution
of cultural goods
andthe
services.
— Collect/analyze
communities
and
achieve
strategic
managing/overseeing multiexisting data/studies
consultative panels
objectives
stakeholder implementation
all enjoy access
to a wide range of cultural assets
and entertainment
that
— Conduct We
community
• Macroeconomic
— Prioritize
economic,options
• Transition
of responsibility
make
dailyand
living
more full, conscious,
and satisfying.
meetings, consultative
forecasts
global
social
and
to entity (or entities)
panels and interviews
scenario planning
environmental
• Benchmark against other
(likely geopolitical,
strategic objectives
regions/countries
socio-economic,
• Multi-criteria decision
• Identify PR’s key
technological and In 2025 ... analysis to evaluate/
socioeconomic strengths,
competitive
g ,
p
prioritize
p
o
t e tthe
e st
strategic
ategspiritually
c all and
– Cultural
C lt ral Heritage – Puerto
P erto Rico values,
al es maintains
maintains, g
guards,
ards ssupports,
pports and benefits spirit
weaknesses,
opportunities
developments)
alternatives
economically
from its artistic,
architectural, and environmental
legacy.
and threats
Where do we want to be in the future?
– Cultural Production – The cultural production of Puerto Rico (theater, radio, cinema, television, music,
literature, dance, crafts, plastic arts, among others) is recognized for its excellence and has effective local
and distribution channels.
– Communications – We encourage the media to be socially responsible.
– Entertainment – There is a wide range of cultural activities and entertainment for all, using different
programs and cultural institutions, mass communication, installations, and recreational areas.
– Values – We state and share values of inclusion, based on ethics, democracy, solidarity, respect for
man’s dignity and human rights that support the integrated development of the individual and the
community for the enjoyment of life.
– Beliefs and Traditions – Individuals, families, and communities cherish, maintain, guard, promote, and
benefit spiritually, socially, and economically from its festivals, traditions, customs, and beliefs.
38
Aug – Nov 2003
Oct – Dec 2003
Assessment
Visioning
Jan – Mar 2004
Strategies:
development &
prioritization
Apr – May 2004
Transition and
implementation
launch
Strategies were evaluated and prioritized in 10 Decision Conferences
Economic
Development
Social
Development
C lt
Culture
Infrastructure/
Environment
Innovation and
Enterprise
Health
Culture
Utilities
Competitiveness
and Connectivity
Education
Land Use and
Environment
Income and
Opportunity
Public Safety
Transport
The process of developing and prioritizing the strategies for Puerto Rico
mobilized more than 100 stakeholders
39
Aug – Nov 2003
Oct – Dec 2003
Assessment
Visioning
STEP 1
Identification
of objectives
and
preliminary
development
of strategies
STEP 2
Pre-validation
P
lid ti
of objectives
and strategies
with key
stakeholders –
individual
interviews
STEP 3
Validation
workshops
(one for each
area of
interest/
panel)
Jan – Mar 2004
Strategies:
development &
prioritization
STEP 4
Pre-evaluation
and
consolidation
of crosseffects
Apr – May 2004
Transition and
implementation
launch
STEP 5
Decision
Conferences at the
panel level (one for
each area of
interest)
40
Key Steps – Phase 3
STEP 1
Identification
of objectives
and
preliminary
d
development
l
t
of strategies
OBJECTIVES
• Identify objectives
within each area
based on
respective vision
statements
• Develop
preliminary set of
strategies based
on:
– Assessment
– Vision
– Benchmarks/
experiences
from other
countries
41
Strategies were generated through a top-down ends-means
structuring process: Example for the Education sector
For each one
of the areas
of interest…
TASK 1:
IDENTIFY
FUNDAMENTAL
OBJECTIVES (Based
TASK 2:
TASK 3:
IDENTIFY MEANS IDENTIFY LEVERS
OBJECTIVES
on vision statement)
Education
1. DEVELOP A HIGH
QUALITY EDUCATION
SYSTEM
Health
Public Safety
Innovation ...
2. GUARANTEE
ACCESS TO
EDUCATION FOR ALL
3. GUARANTEE AN
EFFICIENT
EDUCATIONAL
SYSTEM
4. GUARANTEE AN
EDUCATION SYSTEM
BASED ON
INNOVATION…
Land &
Enviornment
This task defined the
fundamental objectives
that would be used in
the Decision
Conferences
1.1 Guarantee that the
educational system is an
environment that
promotes the
development of ethical
and civic values
1.2 Develop the
Professional and
vocational skills needed
to…
1.3 Develop the
E t
Entrepreneurial
i l attitude
ttit d
to…
a. Curriculum
b. Professors
c. Good Environment
d. Integration with the
community
e. Methods
f. Infrastructure &
Resources
g. Integration with Labor
markets
h. Extra-curricular
activities
I. Valuation model
I) Guarantee that the
curriculum addresses
sufficiently the
development of ethical and
civic values:
- Reallocate school hours
to the detriment of
traditional academic
courses
- Increase the daily hours
of class in order to include
programs/courses on
values..
- Alter the current content /
courses addressing ethical
and civic values
1.4 Develop a continuous
learning attitude in all
members of society…
Each one of the
fundamental objectives
was then broken into
means objectives that
helped explain and
frame the content
TASK 4:
DEVELOP
STRATEGIES AND
EXAMPLE OF
ACTIONS
The levers reflect key
elements that could be
acted upon in order to
achieve each mean
objective
The strategies, and
examples of respective
policy actions, were
developed for each
lever
42
STEP 1
STEP 2
STEP 3
Pre-validation
of objectives
and strategies
with key
stakeholders –
individual
interviews
Identification
of objectives
and
preliminary
development
of strategies
Validation
workshops
(one for each
area of
interest/
panel)
Outputs
Vision Statements
Economic
Inn. &
Enterp.
Comp.
& Conn.
Social
Opport.
& Inc.
FUNDAMENTAL
OBJECTIVES
Health
Public
Safety
Educ.
Infrastructure/
environment
Culture
Land &
Envir.
Culture
Utilities
Transp.
OBJECTIVES VALIDATED
–
–
–
–
–
C1
C2
C3
…
Cn
…
…
…
…
…
R2
R3
…
Rn
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
Opportunities
and Income
…
…
…
…
…
–
–
–
–
STRATEGIES
VALIDATED
– R1
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
P1
P2
P3
…
Pn
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
–
–
–
–
–
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
Productivity,
competitiveness and
connectivity
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
I1
I2
I3
…
In
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
Innovation
and
enterprise
–
–
–
–
–
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
Strategies
Culture
43
To improve the understanding of the scope of each policy
measure, policy actions associated with each strategy were
developed during the validation workshops. Example for the
Productivity area
FUNDAMENTAL OBJECTIVE
1
DESCRIPTION OF POLICY
MEASURE
1.1.1
MEANS OBJECTIVE
Reach leadership in the use of renewable
sources of energy and clean technologies
Plan to foster the
large scale
production of energy
from renewable
sources
Obj: Increase the share of
energy produced from
renewable sources/clean
technologies
1.1
Increase large scale production of energy from
renewable sources
EXAMPLES OF POTENTIAL POLICY ACTIONS
A
Implement new policy standards/targets (e.g. acts requiring energy producers and
importers to ensure that a certain percentage of all electricity supplied to the national
market comes from renewable sources by a specified date)
B
Provide direct incentives for potential suppliers of energy from renewable sources
(grants, long-term loans at reduced interest rates, feed-in tariffs, tax credits, accelerated
depreciation)
C
Implement CO2/other environmental taxes to fossil fuels in order to make energy from
renewable sources more competitive (objective is to reflect the environmental costs
based on CO2 content of energy sources or on electricity consumption)
D
Increase use through government purchases (to supply government consumption
needs from new generating capacity of energy from renewable sources)
IMPACT ON CURRENT ENERGY ISSUES IN PUERTO RICO: reduce over dependency on imported oil
and environmental impact of energy production
44
Key Steps – Phase 3
STEP 1
STEP 2
Identification
of objectives
and
preliminary
d
development
l
t
of strategies
OBJECTIVES
• Identify objectives
within each area
based on
respective vision
statements
• Develop
preliminary set of
strategies based
on:
– Assessment
– Vision
– Benchmarks/
experiences
from other
countries
STEP 3
Pre-validation
of objectives
and strategies
with key
stakeholders –
individual
interviews
STEP 4
Validation
workshops
(one for each
area of
i t
interest/
t/
panel)
OBJECTIVES
• Ensure that no key
element has been
left behind
• Understanding
which policies are
already been
implemented
• Understand
restrictions for the
implementation of
some strategies
(regulatory,
status,…)
Pre-evaluation
and
consolidation
of cross
crosseffects
OBJECTIVES
OBJECTIVES
• Broad validation of • Provide an
objectives and
opportunity for
strategies to
stakeholders of
achieve them
one area of interest
to evaluate how
• Generate
strategies from
alignment/
other areas might
common
impact (positively
understanding
or negatively) its
within
ithi panell
objectives
members regarding
objectives and
strategies to be
evaluated in the
decision
conferences
45
Direct effects and cross-effects
Vision Statements
Economic
Inn. &
Enterp.
Comp.
p
& Conn.
Social
Opport.
pp
& Inc.
Health
Public
Safety
Educ
Educ.
Infrastructure/
environment
Culture
Land &
Envir.
Culture
Utilities
Transp
Transp.
FUNDAMENTAL
OBJECTIVES
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
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DIRECT
EFFECT
…
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CROSS-EFFECTS
…
C1
C2
C3
…
Cn
…
–
–
–
–
–
…
DIRECT
EFFECT
…
R1
R2
R3
…
Rn
…
–
–
–
–
–
…
Minimize the
social and
environmental
impact
CROSSEFFECTS
DIRECT
EFFECT
…
P1
P2
P3
…
Pn
…
–
–
–
–
–
…
Minimize
economic cost
DIRECT
EFFECT
…
I1
I2
I3
…
In
…
–
–
–
–
–
…
Guarantee
reliable access
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
Strategies
46
Key Steps – Phase 3
STEP 1
STEP 2
Identification
of objectives
and
preliminary
d
development
l
t
of strategies
OBJECTIVES
• Identify objectives
within each area
based on
respective vision
statements
• Develop
preliminary set of
strategies based
on:
– Assessment
– Vision
– Benchmarks/
experiences
from other
countries
Pre-validation
of objectives
and strategies
with key
stakeholders –
individual
interviews
OBJECTIVES
• Ensure that no key
element has been
left behind
• Understanding
which policies are
already been
implemented
• Understand
restrictions for the
implementation of
some strategies
(regulatory,
status,…)
STEP 3
Validation
workshops
(one for each
area of
i t
interest/
t/
panel)
STEP 4
STEP 5
Decision
Conferences
at the panel
level (one for
each
h area off
interest)
Pre-evaluation
and
consolidation
of cross
crosseffects
OBJECTIVES
OBJECTIVES
• Broad validation of • Provide an
objectives and
opportunity for
strategies to
stakeholders of
achieve them
one area of interest
to evaluate how
• Generate
strategies from
alignment/
other areas might
common
impact (positively
understanding
or negatively) its
within
ithi panell
objectives
members regarding
objectives and
strategies to be
evaluated in the
decision
conferences
OBJECTIVES
• Provide qualitative
judgments on the
level of contribution
of each strategy to
the objectives of
each area of
interest
• Provide qualitative
j d
judgments
t on th
the
“doability” of each
strategy
• Relative weighting
of objectives within
each of the panels
47
All strategies scored in terms of their direct contribution to
the achievement of each of the fundamental objectives
EDUCATION
Fundamental
Objectives
Quality
Rating of the
strategy against
each fundamental
objective
5
1 Strategy A
Efficiency
5
1
3
4 1
5
3
4
5
2
2
…
4
3
2 Strategy B
3
2
3 Strategy C
4 Strategy D
Innovation
2
1
Strategies
Access
4
1
5 Strategy E
The doability of each strategy was evaluated in a similar process
through a consolidated qualitative judgment that considered
technical,
… political, institutional, financial and other issues
48
Strategies were evaluated according to their direct contribution to
achieve fundamental objectives in each area and according to their
perceived doability
Example of the Output Obtained in each of the 10 Decision Conferences
High
Strategy E
Strategy O
Oysters
Strategy A
Direct
Benefit to
achieve the
vision
Strategy U
Strategy N
Strategy F
Strategy K Strategy L
Pearls
Strategy T
Strategy P
Strategy B
Strategy V
Strategy G
Strategy R
Strategy H
Strategy M
Strategy S
Strategy
gy Q
Strategy C
White elephants
Bread and butter
Strategy J
Strategy D
Strategy I
Low
Low
Consolidated Doability
High
49
MACBETH evaluation conferencing
STEP 5
Decision
Conferences at the
panel level (one for
each area of
interest)
OBJECTIVES
• Provide qualitative
judgments on the
level of contribution
of each strategy to
the objectives of
each area of interest
• Provide
o de qualitative
qua tat e
judgments on the
“doability” of each
strategy
• Relative weighting of
objectives within
each of the panels
50
LAYOUT OF THE DECISION CONFERENCE ROOM
ROOM LAYOUT
FLIP-CHART
2 PROJECTORS
GROUP SITS
IN ROUND
SHAPE
2 SCREENS
PROCESS CONSULTING TEAM
• 1 facilitator
• 1 analyst (computer operator for M-MACBETH)
Optional (depending on the context):
• 1 analyst/consultant
y
((computer
p
operator
p
for
background/support information)
• 1 note taker
GROUP OF PARTICIPANTS
• 5 to 15 people with a balanced perspective on the
meeting’s subject (experts, stakeholders, decision
makers,…)
2 COMPUTERS
AND NOTE
TAKER
51
52
53
MACBETH was used to evaluate the strategies in terms of
their contribution to achieve each fundamental objective
HEALTH
EDUCATION
Fundamental
Objectives
…
TRANSPORT
Access
Cost
INNOVATION
…
Impact
Negative
contribution
Positive
contribution
strategy 1
strategy 2
…
strategy 3
strategy N
Ex
xtreme (+)
Strong (+)
S
Very Strong (+)
Weak (+)
W
Mo
oderate (+)
Ne
eutral (null)
Verry Weak (+)
Weak (-)
W
Very Weak (-)
Strong (-)
S
Mo
oderate (-)
Ex
xtreme (-)
Evaluation of the
extent to which
each strategy is
expected to
contribute to the
achievement of
each objective
associated with
the vision
3
3
3
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
Strategies
Verry Strong (-)
0
3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
1.1.2
Oysters
200
Pearls
1.2.2
1.1.3
Contribution to the vision
1.3.2
1.5.4
1.1.4
1.1.6
1.2.4
1.5.2
1.2.3
1.5.3
1.2.1
1.1.5
100
1.3.1
1.5.1
111
1.1.1
142
1.4.2
1.4.1
Bread and butter
White elephants
0
0
50
Doability
100
63
64
Aug – Nov 2003
Oct – Dec 2003
Assessment
Visioning
Jan – Mar 2004
Apr – May 2004
Strategic alternative
development &
prioritization
Transition and
implementation
launch
Cross-effects were added to the outcome of the decision conferencing
process and a benefit/effort ratio for each strategy was calculated at the end
Positive score:
Percentage of other areas
with at least strong
positive cross-effects
Negative score:
Percentage of other areas
with at least strong
negative cross-effects
POSITIVE
(1/3)
NEGATIVE
(2/3)
CROSS
EFFECTS
(penalty
score)
ADJUSTED
BENEFIT
RESCALED
DIRECT
BENEFIT
BENEFIT/
EFFORT
RATIO
Evaluated in the Decision
Conferences
DOABILITY
(EFFORT)
65
April 22-23
STEP 1
Develop
preliminary set of
strategies to
bridge the gap
between the
current situation
and the future
vision
STEP 2
Breakdown
approved vision
statements into
specific
objectives
Several individual
interviews with
experts
STEP 3
Validation
workshops –
panel of experts
10 panels
with
experts
STEP 4
Decision
Conferences at
the panel level
10 panels
with
experts
STEP 5
Strategic
Decision
Conferences
2 workshops
with more
than 50
stakeholders
from all 10
expert panels
and from the
steering
committee
66
The Puerto Rico 2025 project was now in the last stage of
strategy development: The integration of the 10 analyses
August – November 2003
EVALUATION/ASSESSMENT
• Where is Puerto Rico today?
“The need for action”
October 2003 – January 2004
VISION
• Where does Puerto Rico want to be
in 2025?
“The fundamental objectives”
January – April 2004
STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
• What are the strategies that will mostly
contribute to reach the vision?
“The strategies”
March – June 2004
IMPLEMENTATION LAUNCH
• Transfer responsibilities to the
independent entity
“The Launch”
67
Puerto Rico 2025
Strategic Decision Conference
The
ep
primary
a y object
objective
e was
as to co
consolidate
so date
the results of the 10 area decision conferences
into a coherent and integrated strategic plan
68
Puerto Rico 2025
Strategic Decision Conference
69
Benefit/effort ratios for each
strategy in each area of concern
Integrated Strategic
Packages
(implementation plan)
POSITIVE
CROSS
EFFECTS
NEGATIVE
ADJUSTED
BENEFIT
Culture
DIRECT
BENEFIT
RATIO
BENEFIT/
EFFORT
DOABILITY
(EFFORT)
POSITIVE
CROSS
EFFECTS
NEGATIVE
ADJUSTED
BENEFIT
Education
DIRECT
BENEFIT
RATIO
BENEFIT/
EFFORT
DOABILITY
(EFFORT)
Strategic
Decision
Conferences
(April 22 and 24)
POSITIVE
CROSS
EFFECTS
NEGATIVE
ADJUSTED
BENEFIT
Income and
Opportunity
Group
p analysis
y
across the ten
areas of concern
DIRECT
BENEFIT
RATIO
BENEFIT/
EFFORT
DOABILITY
(EFFORT)
…
PACKAGE 2: Short Term
POSITIVE
CROSS
EFFECTS
Competitiveness
and Connectivity
PACKAGE 1: Immediate Term
DIRECT
BENEFIT
RATIO
BENEFIT/
EFFORT
PACKAGE 3: Medium Term
NEGATIVE
ADJUSTED
BENEFIT
PACKAGE 4: Long Term
DOABILITY
(EFFORT)
70
OUTPUT ON THE FIRST ROUND OF
AREAS’ WEIGHTING
WITH MACBETH
OUTPUT ON THE SECOND
WEIGHTING ROUND
71
Equity model that supported the discussion on the
packages of strategies for implementation
Equity Model : First Output
ƒFour prioritization packages
were created:
ƒ immediate (included
those strategies to be
pursued if only 10% of the
total effort is to be put
forth),
Short-term package
Medium-term package
Immediate package
ƒshort-term (included
those strategies to be
pursued if only 30% of the
total effort is to be put
forth),
ƒmedium-term
ƒmedium
term (included
those strategies to be
pursued if only 70% of the
total effort is to be put
forth)
ƒand long-term (included
those strategies to be
pursued if 100% of the
total effort is to be put
forth).
72
Adjusted-benefit / doability charts
ƒ In order to check the strategic panel’s consistency with that of the expert panels
an adjusted-benefit doability chart was shown for each area.
PRODUCTIVITY, COMPETITIVENESS AND CONNECTIVITY
100
1.1.2
Long-term strategy
Adjjusted Benefit
1.1.3
1.3.2
1.1.6
1.1.4
1.2.2
Medium-term strategy
1.5.4
1.5.2
Short-term strategy
Preliminary immediate strategy
1.5.3
1.1.5
50
1.3.1
1.4.2
Strategy that moved
from the long-term
to the medium-term
package
1.3.1
Strategy that moved
from the long-term
to the short-term
package
1.5.1
1.1.1
1.4.2
1.4.1
0
0
50
100
Doability
73
Fine-tuning prioritization packages (continued)
Rearranged medium-term package
Rearranged
g short-term p
package
g
74
Strategic Decision Conference
2nd day agenda: Identify from the
short-term p
package
g the
immediate strategies
Saturday, April 24th
75
76
Immediate package
Negotiated final immediate package
77
TRANSPORT – Distribution of strategies in terms of
implementation packages
Implementation packages
Strategies
1.1.2
1.1.3
1.2.1
1.2.2
1.2.3
2.1.1
2.1.2
2.1.3
2.2.1
2.2.2
2.2.3
3.1.1
312
3.1.2
3.2.1
3.2.2
3.2.3
3.2.4
3.3.1
3.3.2
3.4.2
Improve the productivity and attractiveness of
existing ports and airports
Expand the capacity of sea ports for cargo services
Transform small and military sea ports into new
ports for shipping services
Improve the productivity of passenger port
terminals
Expand capacity of passenger sea terminals
Increase the number and frequency of maritime
connections for passengers
Improve the productivity of air cargo services
Expand capacity of existing air cargo facilities
Transform small and military airports into new
airports for cargo services
Improve the productivity of passenger air terminals
Expand capacity of passenger air terminals
Increase the number and frequency of air
connections for passengers
Improve the productivity of land freight services
Invest in new land freight systems
Complete the highway and road network
Increase the efficiency/capacity of existing roads
Create and promote efficient and reliable collective
transportation
Ensure that the land use plan reduces the need for
transportation
Encourage reduction in car use
Promote clean fuels and advanced technology for
transportation
Create new mechanisms to incorporate the
community in transportation planning and
communication process
High
3.2.3
3.2.4
3.2.1
3.2.2
Total Benefit Score
T
1.1.1
(as defined at the Strategic Decision Conference)
1.1.1
2.1.1
2.2.1
1.2.1
3.3.1
3.1.1
3.3.2
2.2.2
1.1.2
223
2.2.3
2.1.2
Immediate
Short-term
Low
Low
1.1.3
3.1.2
1.2.2
Medium-term
1.2.3
Long-term
2.1.3
Doability
High
78
Aug – Nov 2003
Oct – Dec 2003
Assessment
Visioning
Jan – Mar 2004
Strategic alternative
development &
prioritization
• “Decision conferences”
•
with stakeholders and
experts to Culture
Culture — Identify and develop •
policy options to
achieve the
strategic
Education
objectives
Social
— Prioritize economic,
•
Health
development social and
environmental
strategic Public
objectives
safety
• Multi-criteria decision
analysis to evaluate/
prioritize
p
o t e tthe
e Utilities
st
strategic
ateg c
alternatives
Infrastructure
/ environment
Apr – May 2004
Transition and
implementation
launch
Identification of resources,
funding and timing required
for each initiative
Engagement/establishment
of entities responsible for
managing/overseeing multistakeholder implementation
Transition of responsibility
to entity (or entities)
Transport
• Strategic Plan:
• Implementation Plan
Land Use• and
Short-term actions
FullEnvironment
set of performance
(2004-08) and longmetrics and progressterm strategies Competitiveness,
tracking Productivity
mechanisms
(2009-25) required
to Connectivity
and
• Implementation entity
achieve
desired
in
place
Economic
Vision
Opportunities and Income
development
Innovation and Enterprise
79