What is the Connected Vehicle Connected To?
Technologies, Policies and Possibilities
Near Term → Long Term
© ITS Canada, 2015
Michael J. Bailey, P.Eng.
Director and Past Chairman of the Board
ITS Canada
“… this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before
the decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning
him safely to the earth.” John F Kennedy, May 1961, (Address to to
US Congress)
“We choose to go to the moon ... and … other things, not
because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that
goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies
and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to
accept, one we are unwilling to postpone. …" John F Kennedy,
June 1962, (address at Rice University, Houston, TX)
Image Source: BBC
1
The last step may not be as
important as all the steps it took
to get there.
The moon landing is analogous
to evolution of fully
autonomous vehicles.
The Lunar program could not
succeed without significant
advances in:
• Material Sciences
• High Strength
• Light Weight
• Heat Resistant
• Non corrosive
• Sensor Technologies
• Digital Communication
• Component Miniaturization
Image Source: BBC
These advances led to:
1. Integrated circuits
2. Low power consumption motors and rechargeable batteries
3. Inexpensive photo-electric smoke detectors
4. Enriched infant formula
5. Re-cycled rubber based pavement.
6. Disposable infrared ear thermometer
7. Nickel-Titanium supported orthodontics
8. Durable non-corrosive industrial coatings
9. Bi-directional telemetry for medically implanted devices
10. Scratch resistant light weight lenses
11. And much more
Source: Mental Floss LLC, Dan Majors, Pittsburgh Post Gazette, inter alia
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What is the Connected Vehicle Connected To?
Technologies, Policies and Possibilities
50 Years Into the Future – A 1923 View of 1973
Source: Science and Invention (Cover), May 1923
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50 Years Into the Future – A 1963 View of 2013
© Hanna Barbara
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Introduction and History
Connected and Autonomous
Mobility and Urbanization
Safety
Technology
Regulation
Automotive and Business Implications
Legal
Reading
Conclusion
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Automated Driving: Levels of Automation
Level of automation
Level 0
Driver Only
Manual
Level 1
Driver delegates
partially – must
monitor system
constantly and
be ready to take
full control
Vehicle
assumes
Lateral OR
Longitudinal
Control
Assisted
Level 2
Driver delegates
fully – must
monitor system
constantly and
be ready to take
control
“Hands On“
Vehicle
assumes
Lateral AND
Longitudinal
Control
Partially
Automated
Level 3
“Hands Off“
Driver must take
control within
seconds after
warning
Vehicle
assumes
Lateral AND
Longitudinal
Control
Highly
Automated
Level 4
No driver
monitoring
mandatory
Vehicle
completely
takes over.
.
Fully
Automated
Source: Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen (BASt) | National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
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Autonomous Vehicles (Level 4)
The Good News
•
It’s possible to get into a car, tell it to take you
to the corner store – and it will take you there
successfully and safely, while you read the
local newspaper.
– You don’t have to steer
– You don’t have to apply the gas or brake
– You don’t have to signal for turns
•
Many of you have seen the videos on the
internet.
•
They are real and they represent significant
breakthroughs in application of technology to
the task of driving.
The Bad News
•
The bad news is that, for now, there is only
one corner store and it’s in Mountain View,
California.
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Is it Real?
• Fully autonomous vehicles could be ready by 2025, predicts Daimler chairman
Dieter Zetsche, chairman of Daimler, predicts that fully autonomous vehicles which can drive without human
intervention and might not even have a steering wheel could be available on the market by 2025. (Source: The
Detroit News, 2014-01-13)
• Truly autonomous cars to populate roads by 2028-2032 estimates insurance think tank
executive
At a meeting of the Society of Automotive Engineers, Robert Hartwig, President of the Insurance Information
Institute estimated that it will take between 15 and 20 years until truly autonomous vehicles populate US
roads. (Source: The Detroit News, 2013-02-14)
• Intel CTO predicts that autonomous car will arrive by 2022
Justin Rattner, CTO of Intel predicts that driverless cars will be available within 10 years. Intel is hoping to
equip autonomous smart cars with its Atom and Core processors. (Source: Computerworld, 2012-10-22)
• IEEE predicts up to 75% of vehicles will be autonomous in 2040
Expert members of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) have determined that
driverless vehicles will be the most viable form of intelligent transportation. They estimate that up to 75% of all
vehicles will be autonomous by 2040. (Source: IEEE, 2012-09-05)
Mercedez Benz F 015 Concept
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Connected Road User Universe
Driver
Vehicle
Integration
Communication
Roadway
Information
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Communication Convergence
Multiple Two-way Communication Channels
Roadside ... Vehicle (V2I)
Vehicle ... Vehicle (V2V)
Three Dimensions of Connectivity
• Local (Within the vehicle)
• Near Field (~300m surrounding the
Vehicle )
• Wide Area (Remote Interfaces with the
Vehicle)
Control Centre ... Roadside
Vehicle ... Control Centre
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Connected Vehicle Applications – On the way to Autonomous
Adaptive drivetrain Management
Road condition warning
Left turn assistant
Adaptive headlight aiming
SOS services
Map downloads and updates
Curve speed warning
Stop sign violation warning
Pre-crash sensing
Emergency electronic brake Lights
Traffic signal violation warning
Safety recall Notice
Emergency vehicle signal preemption
Work zone warning
Stop sign Movement assistance
Enhanced route guidance and Navigation Approaching emergency vehicle warning
Vehicle-based road condition warning
Free-Flow tolling
Blind Merge warning
Vehicle-to-vehicle road feature Notification
Highway/rail collision warning
Blind spot warning
Visibility enhancer
Intelligent on-ramp Metering
Cooperative ACC
Wrong-way driver warning
In-Vehicle Amber Alert
Cooperative FCW
Cooperative collision warning
In-vehicle signage
Cooperative glare reduction
Cooperative vehicle-highway automation system
Low bridge warning
Highway Merge assistant
GPS correction
Low parking structure warning
Intelligent traffic flow control
Instant Messaging
Point of interest Notification
Just-in-time repair Notification
Intersection collision warning
Post-crash warning
Lane change warning
Pedestrian crossing at designated intersections
Source: CAMP. (2006, April). Vehicle Safety Communications Project - Final Report. DOT HS 810 591.
Washington, DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
Near Term
Medium Term
Long Term
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Introduction and History
Connected and Autonomous
Mobility and Urbanization
Safety
Technology
Regulation
Automotive and Business Implications
Legal
Reading
Conclusion
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Millennials See Things Through a Different Lens
Population Between 16 and 19 Holding a
Driver’s License
• Young people are no longer in a hurry to
drive
100%
90%
• Context of social interaction has
fundamentally changed
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Ownership Quiz?
20%
10%
0%
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Source: USDOT
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1978
18
19
2008
14
This is a fundamental and
unprecedented break in a
long term trend
Source: FHWA 2013
• Certify,
Survey the
of 6,000
second
members
largest of
corporate
ten Car expense
Sharing
management
Services in thecompany,
US and Canada
reports that shared
services
Ubër
have
almost overtaken
– 65% like
of One
Car
households
shed the
traditional
taxis in expense claims for ground
vehicle.
transportation.
– 71% of Two Car households shed at least
one car
– 16%
of Two Car households shed both cars
100%
Ground Transport Expenses Claimed
US VMT (Billions)
Transport as a Service (TaaS)
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14
Source: Certify, April, 2015
Ubër
Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15
Taxi
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Introduction and History
Connected and Autonomous
Mobility and Urbanization
Safety
Technology
Regulation
Automotive and Business Implications
Legal
Reading
Conclusion
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Automotive Industry - 50 Years of Continuous Improvement
ACC, Collision
Warning
Past Results Are Indicative of
Future Performance
Rear Cameras
ABS and ESC
Air Bags
Fuel Efficiency,
Emission Control
Seat Belts
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
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Long Term Decline in Fatalities vs VMT
Following 1973 Oil Price
Shock, US Government
imposed a national Maximum
55 mph speed limit
The trend has continued
since Maximum 55 mph
speed limit was lifted
Source: USDOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Connected Vehicles are expected
to yield 30% reduction in collisions
and fatalities and a modest VMT
increase.
Net result should be a continuing
decline as % of CVs in the fleet
increase
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Potential Collision Reduction
Four Key CV Applications
Forward Collision Warning
All
Injury
Fatal
1,165,000
66,000
879
Lane Departure Warning
179,000
37,000
7,529
Side View Assist
395,000
20,000
393
Adaptive Headlights
142,000
29,000
2,484
5,615,000
1,634,000
30,800
33%
9%
37%
Total Collisions
Collisions Potentially Influenced
Source: New Estimates of Benefits of Crash Avoidance Features On Passenger Vehicles, Status Report, Vol 45, No 5, Insurance
Institute for Highway Safety,, Washington, DC, 2010 http://www.iihs.org/iihs/sr/statusreport/article/45/5/2
• Other estimates are much higher
• Projections need calibration across applications and between CV and AV
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Key ADAS and Connected Vehicle Applications (V2V and V2I)
Rear End
Collision
Scenarios
Forward Collision Warning
Emergency Electronic Brake Light
Warning
Lane
Change
Scenarios
Blind Spot Warning
Do Not Pass Warning
Intersection Intersection Warning
Scenario
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Introduction and History
Connected and Autonomous
Mobility and Urbanization
Safety
Technology
Regulation
Automotive and Business Implications
Legal
Reading
Conclusion
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Self Driving Will Require Exponentially Faster Processing
Assist
Self
Driving
System Functionality
Inform
ElectroMechanical
Safety
Air Bags
ESC
ABS
Infotainment
Lane
Departure
Blind Spot
Parking Assist
Adaptive
Cruise Control
Emergency
Braking
Lane Keeping
Assume
Self Driving
Web Content
Streaming
Safe
Driving
100
1,000
100,000
10,000
Compute Speed Requirement (DMIPS – indicative only)
Source: Technology and Computing Requirements for Self-Driving Cars, Intel, 2014
1,000,000
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Generic Connected Vehicle Architecture
GPS,
DSRC
Antenna
Map
LIDAR, Radar, Camera
Sensor Package
Driver Vehicle
Interface
GPS Receiver
DSRC Radio
Vehicle System
& Sensor Bus
Safety &
Security App
Memory
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In Vehicle Sensor Package
• Sensor Package
– LIDAR
– Optical Cameras
– Radar
– Infrared camera
– GPS
– Wheel Encoder
• Composite Yield
– 360°Image
– Real time relative movement
– Millisecond reaction
Source: Staszewski R, Estl, H, Making Cars Safer Through Technology Innovation, Texas Instruments, 2013
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Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC)
DSRC enables continuous standardized
two-way messaging between nearby
vehicles and roadside infrastructure
• Low latency
• Simple acquisition
• Robust and Dependable
• Secure
V2V Message includes
• Location
• Speed
• Acceleration
• Bearing
• Yaw
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Map Building Evolution – Current Generation
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Map Building Evolution – ADAS and CV Generation
The map to support ADAS
applications (CV/AV) is much
more demanding than required
by current generation turn-byturn navigation.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Derived from LiDAR
3D spline based surface model
Lane-level and intersection
mapping
Slope, Elevation, Curvature
Ability to model non-drivable
surfaces
Parking
And on and on …
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Known Development Challenges
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Reversing
Work Zones
Pedestrian Prediction
Rare Events
Extreme Weather
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Introduction and History
Connected and Autonomous
Mobility and Urbanization
Safety
Technology
Regulation
Automotive and Business Implications
Legal
Reading
Conclusion
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Regulations will have to keep up
In Europe, Audi has launched a
sensor activated dynamic matrix
LED headlight system that puts
light where it is needed.
Not allowed in North America
Image Source: http://www.caradvice.com.au/257871/audi-matrix-ed-headlights/
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Regulations will have to keep up
Image Source: http://wot.motortrend.com/audi-debuts-laser-taillights-in-car-lte-connectivity-3-d-displays-at-2013-ces-311529.html/audi-laser-taillight-2/
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Introduction and History
Connected and Autonomous
Mobility and Urbanization
Safety
Technology
Regulation
Automotive and Business Implications
Legal
Reading
Conclusion
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The Automotive Development Cycle is Long
Supplier
Prototype
Concept
Integration &
Validation
Engineering Development
Engineering
Validation
Start Mass
Production
Market
Launch
0
1
3
4
2
Automotive Development Cycle (Years)
5
6
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• Cycle of technology ownership and obsolescence is on a different
wave length from the automotive cycle
Obsolescence Cycle
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
Years In Service
Mobile Phone
Car
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Market Adoption
Slope and inflection points
respond to a number of
factors:
• Cool
• Cost
• Convenience
Market Penetration (%)
100
75
50
Early Adopters
25
“Luddites”
Model Year Adoption (%)
2013
2014
Adaptive Cruise Control
1.1
1.4
Lane Departure Prevention
3.4
8.4
Blind Spot Alert
6.3
10.1
Source:: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/study-selfdriving-cars-would-cut-90of-crashes2nd-update-20150305-00820#ixzz3TY4iUXx0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Years From 1st Generation Launch
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Trust is an Issue – So is Price
Capability
Price (USD)
Would definitely or probably purchase
Premium Car Buyer
Other Car Buyer
3,000
31%
18%
Speed Limit Assist -
800
29%
18%
Emergency Stop Assist
800
31%
23%
Traffic Congestion Assist
800
31%
20%
Fully Autonomous Driving
Semi-autonomous Driving Applications
Source: JD Power and Associates, 2012 US Automotive Emerging Technologies Study
• In all cases, men were more likely to purchase than women by approximately 10%
• In all cases, younger purchasers were more likely to purchase than older purchasers
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Silicon Valley in competition with Detroit to be auto nexus
•
“Cars are still an area that haven’t fundamentally changed in 100
years,” says Gene Munster, an analyst with Piper Jaffray Cos
•
Apple can afford to invest in capital intensive disruptive projects.
•
Apple and Google “are the new suppliers, these are the new auto
companies.” said Jeff Schuster, an SVP at LMC Automotive.
•
Detroit automotive engineers are marveling over Tesla president Elon Musk
recently telling Bloomberg Businessweek that, “Apple was offering
US$250,000 signing bonuses in an effort to poach Tesla workers”.
•
The Financial Times also reported that Apple is hiring auto experts to work at
a new research lab.”
National Post, February 17, 2015
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Impact of Reduced CV Headway Requirement
Reduced headway requirement
Increases roadway utilization where
LOS is currently constrained and
defers demand for new
infrastructure
Speed
Throughput (Volume / Capacity)
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Disruptions in the Automotive, Transport and Energy Sectors
•
Smoother sensor and computer managed acceleration and deceleration is expected improve fuel
consumption by 4 to 10 percent.
•
Jobs could be lost once drivers become unnecessary.
– Some taxi, truck, and bus drivers may lose their livelihoods and professions.
– Reduced collision rates and MVA related fatalities and injuries, will disrupt the entire “crash
economy” of insurance companies, body shops, hospitals, chiropractors, and others.
•
Potentially lighter and less “crash resistant” vehicles present further opportunities for reduced fuel
consumption with predictable impact on vehicle maintenance and the steel industry
•
Better utilization of roadway infrastructure will reduce demand for new roads and parking facilities
James M. Anderson, Nidhi Kalra, Karlyn D. Stanley, Paul Sorensen, Constantine Samaras, Oluwatobi A. Oluwatola; Autonomous Vehicle – Technology A Guide for Policymakers; Rand
Corporation, Santa Monica, CA; 2014
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Introduction and History
Connected and Autonomous
Mobility and Urbanization
Safety
Technology
Regulation
Automotive and Business Implications
Legal
Reading
Conclusion
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Privacy Principles for Vehicle Technologies and Services
•
The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers and the Association of Global Automakers has released a
set of guiding principles, aimed at protecting personal information collected through in-car
technologies, including:
– Information that vehicles collect, that is linked to a vehicle, owner or user and
– Information that individuals provide, during the subscription or registration process, that on its
own or in combination with other information can identify a person
•
The principles address
– Transparency
– Choice
– Respect for Context
– Data Minimization, De-Identification & Retention
– Data Security
– Integrity & Access
– Accountability
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Product Liability
•
Automobile manufacturers are typically very conservative and cautious of exposure to product liability
claims.
•
Despite saving many thousands of deaths and injuries, Seat belts, air bags and other safety features
have attracted product liability claims.
•
ADAS and Autonomous driving features will be no different, but dramatic reduction in collision
numbers coupled with further reduction in deaths and injuries will more than offset any increased
exposure
•
Insurers have acknowledged that lane-keeping and ACC functions reduce risk and have begun to
reduce premiums accordingly
•
Cameras and Event Data Recorders will remove uncertainty and reduce the cost of litigation and
increase likelihood of settlement.
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Autonomous Cars – A Conundrum of Ethical Considerations
•
•
As a driver I have real time choices to evade or mitigate damage from an unavoidable collision that
will occur in the next second.
In the same situation, for an autonomous car, those choices have already been made and encoded
into a probabilistic algorithm, months or years ago, by an anonymous programmer in a far away lab –
but the algorithm has no sense of moral or even ethical consideration.
I am driving my vehicle on a road and see a vehicle hauling a travel trailer driving toward me,
approaching rapidly. An incident is practically unavoidable and I have to choose among:
i. Driving off the road (catastrophic results for me and my vehicle);
ii. Collide head-on with the approaching vehicle (with moderate damage and injury for me and the
other vehicle and its occupants); or
iii. An improbable maneuver that will possibly save me and my vehicle and the other vehicle, but more
likely will result in very serious injury/damage to the other vehicle and occupants, while my vehicle is
subject to limited damage and less severe injury..
•
The autonomous vehicle calculates probable outcomes and simply executes to achieve the best
possible outcome. But what is the “best possible outcome”?
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Autonomous Cars – A Conundrum of Ethical Considerations
•
•
As a driver I have real time choices to evade or mitigate
damage from an unavoidable collision that
High
will occur in the next second.
In the same situation, for an autonomous car, those choices haveiii already been made and encoded
into a probabilistic algorithm, months or years ago, by an anonymousiprogrammer in a far away lab –
but the algorithm has no sense of moral or even ethical consideration.
Severity
I am driving my vehicle on a road and see a vehicle hauling a traveliiitrailer driving toward me
ii
approaching rapidly. An incident
is
practically
unavoidable
and
I
have
to
choose
Low
High among:
Probability
i. Driving off the road (catastrophic results
for me and my vehicle);
ii. Collide head-on with the approaching vehicle (with moderate damage and injury for me and the
other vehicle and its occupants); or
iii. An improbable maneuver that will possibly save me and my vehicle and the other vehicle, but more
likely will result in serious injury/damage to the other vehicle and occupants, while my vehicle
escapes.
i
iii
Low and simply executes to achieve the best
•
The autonomous vehicle calculates probable outcomes
possible outcome. But what is the “best possible outcome”?
X
Opposing
Vehicle
Scenario X
X
My Vehicle
Scenario X
X
Both Vehicles
Scenario X
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Introduction and History
Connected and Autonomous
Mobility and Urbanization
Safety
Technology
Regulation
Automotive and Business Implications
Legal
Reading
Conclusion
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Interesting Reading
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Author Unknown, Leonardo da Vinci’s Self Propelled car, http://www.powershow.com/view1/cafa2ZDc1Z/Leonardo_da_Vinci_powerpoint_ppt_presentation, inter alia
Garza, A.P., “Look Ma, No Hands”: Wrinkles and Wrecks in the Age of Autonomous Vehicles, New England Law
Review, Volume 46, Issue 3, Page 581 - 616, Boston, MA, 2012
http://www.nesl.edu/userfiles/file/LawReview/Vol46/3/Garza%20FINAL.pdf
Goodall, N.J., Ethical Decision Making During Automated Vehicle Crashes, Transportation Research Record,
Journal of the Transportation Research Board. No 2424, Vol 2, Washington, DC, 2014
http://www.academia.edu/4987835/Ethical_Decision_Making_During_Automated_Vehicle_Crashes
Scribner, M., Self Driving Regulation, On Point, No 192, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC, 2014
https://cei.org/onpoint/self-driving-regulation
Martin, E; Shaheen, S; Lidicker, J; Carsharing’s Impact on Household Vehicle Holdings: Results From a North
American Shared-Use Survey; Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board;
Issue 2143; pp 150-158; / 2010 Transit, Vol 1, Washington, DC, 2010
Staszewski, R, Hannes, E, Making Cars Safer Through Technology Innovation, Texas Instruments Incorporated,
2013 http://www.ti.com/lit/wp/sszy009/sszy009.pdf
Wallace, R; Silberg, G; Self Driving Cars – The Next Revolution, KPMG and Center for Automotive Research, Ann
Arbor, MI; 2012 https://www.kpmg.com/US/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/self-drivingcars-next-revolution.pdf
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Introduction and History
Connected and Autonomous
Mobility and Urbanization
Safety
Technology
Regulation
Automotive and Business Implications
Legal
Reading
Conclusion
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24th World Congress on Intelligent Transportation
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A Few Open Questions That Need a Lot of Discussion
•
In 2015, a B-787 can easily fly from Gate F72 at Pearson Toronto to a gate at Delhi International
Airport with zero pilot input. Yet we still require two highly trained and paid pilots in the cockpit …
actually a flight that long might require two complete crews. The issue is clearly redundancy, so how
does this reality align with autonomous driving?
•
Accepting that connected vehicle technology will substantially improve roadway safety and reduce
collisions, and mitigate fatalities and injuries when a collision does occur:
– How will consumers react to the prospect of new vehicles being lighter with fewer injury
mitigation features that CV applications make redundant?
– How will policy makers react …?
•
At what rate can adoption of CV applications be mandated by regulation?
49