Peaceful Power Politics: The Influence of Political Culture on Japan’s China Policy By Anthony Kleibergen B.A International Relations/International Organization University of Groningen, 2014 Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MSc Political Science – International Relations University of Amsterdam Supervisor: Dr. Julia Bader, PhD. June 2015 1 Table of Contents Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 3 Chapter 2 Literature Review ................................................................................................................... 6 Chapter 3 Theoretical Framework ........................................................................................................ 11 Chapter 4 Methodology and Data ......................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 5 Theoretical Expectations ...................................................................................................... 19 Chapter 6 Empirical Analysis: Diplomatic Blue Books ....................................................................... 28 Chapter 7 Empirical Analysis: The National Security Strategy............................................................ 33 Chapter 8 Conclusion and Discussion .................................................................................................. 39 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................................... 42 Annex 1 Empirical Results Diplomatic Blue Books ............................................................................. 44 2 Chapter 1 Introduction One of the great empirical puzzles in IR is the discrepancy between the economic and political power of certain large countries, and their relatively passive foreign policy. Despite their wealth, large populations, and political stature, Japan and Germany, for instance, have taken a backseat position in international politics ever since 1945. Although they joined multilateral institutions, contribute to global governance and provide development aid, they have been passive actors in the realm of security and peace enforcement. Japan has a small military relative to its economic weight, and is constitutionally barred from conducting war operations except for self-defense. Indeed, its military is referred to as Japan’s Self Defense Forces, and not perceived to be a military like those of other states. Japan has only partaken in peacekeeping operations, but played relatively minor roles by not participating in combative tasks. 1 In addition, Japan has ruled out the development of nuclear weapons, prohibited arms exports, and limited defense spending to 1% of GDP. By the same token, Germany limited the size of its military and has been very reluctant to participate in peace enforcement and security operations. After much internal debate, Germany decided to play a role in the 1999 Kosovo and 2001 Afghanistan campaigns, but refused to join operations in the 2003 war in Iraq, and 2011 air campaign against Libya’s Muammar Ghaddafi. Large countries like the United Kingdom, France, and Russia, on the other hand, developed sophisticated militaries and frequently engaged in combat tasks and the maintenance of security. Therefore it seems not all powerful and economically advanced states pursue the same foreign policies, or seek a prominent role on the world stage. These restrained policies challenge mainstream theoretical assumptions about the role of powerful states on the world stage. Neorealism, for instance, assumes that great powers with hegemonic ambitions seek to expand their militaries and play a dominant political role. This framework, however, is insufficient to explain the cases of Germany and Japan. John Duffield, for instance, showed that Germany’s policy behavior did not match the Realist expectations associated with Germany’s power position in Europe because it has a anti-militaristic domestic political culture which highly shapes its foreign policy. 2 Other authors, like Peter Katzenstein and Thomas Berger have argued that a similar culture exists in modern Japan. Thus, it seems that other, non-systemic factors like culture can provide important explanations for the foreign policy directions of certain countries. To further examine this possibility, this thesis investigates the foreign policy motives of Japan in a particular area; namely its China strategy. The economic and political rise of China would have profound effects on the distribution of power in Asia, and according to Neorealism, leads 1 Akitoshi Miyashita, ‘’Where Do Norms Come From? Foundations of Japan’s Postwar Pacifism’’, pp. 99-102. John Duffield, ‘‘Political Culture and State Behavior: Why Germany Confounds Neorealism’’, International Organization, vol.53(4), 1999, pp. 774-775. 2 3 neighboring countries like Japan to follow policies to counter its ascendance. These could include the building of a strong military, development of nuclear weapons, alliance formation or bandwagoning. This has not happened, however, as Japan pursued a seemingly anti-militaristic course and relied on the US for its security. It seems that political cultures that are anti-militaristic and passive by nature could lead to a very different strategy that defies Realist expectations. To solve the empirical puzzle of the importance of political culture this thesis will try to answer the question whether this factor is a crucial explanatory factor in Japan’s China policy. To demonstrate the relevance of political culture, I juxtapose the domestic explanation against Realism, an IR theory that focuses on structural factors in the international system that drive state behavior. I have chosen Realism, and Neorealism in particular, because it is a dominant theory in academic discussions and discourse on IR in Asia and the rise of China, and focus on the external systemic factors. Essentially, in my research I attempt to compare the role of internal cultural factors with Neorealism, and weigh the relative importance. In this domestic explanation I focus on the political culture of Japan’s government. In order to apply political culture to the foreign policy domain, I have used a framework developed by John Duffield, consisting of several important dimensions of political culture in the foreign policy domain. These dimensions indicate which aspects of foreign policymaking are determined by political culture. Duffield identified these as 1) world views, 2) definitions of the national interest, 3) perception of national role, 4) identity and emotional attachment, 5) norms and values regarding policy making. To subsequently test the values for these measures, I examined secondary literature that describes the features for each of these dimensions in Japan. That way, I generated expectations and predictions regarding political culture that are suitable for testing in empirical materials. In order to identify whether these variables are indeed present in Japan’s government, and how important they are relative to Neorealist interpretations, I have analyzed Japan’s Diplomatic Blue Books from 2005 until 2014, and the 2013 National Security Strategy. These documents provide a wide overview of Japan’s foreign and security strategies, with both general outlines of world politics, assessments of regional developments, Japan’s approach to global governance and development, as well as Japan’s foreign policy goals, interests and strategies. The 2013 NSS, on the other hand, specifically focuses on elements of security, which deepens the understanding of Japan’s regional strategy, and opens up possibilities for identifying the presence of possible Realist considerations. In these documents, Duffield’s dimensions were readily identifiable, and in the empirical chapter, I gave an overview of the findings for each of them, and compared them to the expectations generated by secondary literature. My findings have indicated that political culture forms an important factor guiding Japan’s China policy, and that in the case of Japan, anti-militarism has been the main enduring factor inhibiting its military buildup and strategic posturing associated with Neorealism. However, this research also concludes that political culture cannot explain all foreign policy strategies, and that 4 structural elements still guide Japan’s China policy. Political culture, and its main feature of antimilitarism, in the case of Japan, partly explain its strategies. Japan has ascribed to a Neorealist perception of China’s rise, and has been concerned about its military buildup, territorial claims, and political prowess. Tensions have risen significantly, but economic relations have developed strongly, and Japan has emphasized its willingness to resolve disputes and establish a cooperative relationship in many fields. Most importantly, Japan has not responded in kind to China’s vast increases in defense spending, and has not significantly altered its diplomatic strategy. Although it has strengthened its alliance with the US and formed partnerships, evidence of balancing or bandwagoning against China is meagre, and it has not initiated a comparable program of rearming. This has become evident in the domains of world views, national role and emotional attachment, where Japan’s culture is applied most, whereas it is more difficult to find associated policy predictions in the domains of norms and values and the national interest. With regards to some policies, Japan has taken a stance that is better explained through Neorealism. Japan’s anti-militarism, amongst other cultural elements, forms an important explanation for its ambivalent China policy, and thus proves to be a complementary variable in analyzing foreign policy. The organization of this thesis will systematically follow the research approach. Chapter 2 covers existing literature examining theoretical explanations for Japan’s foreign and China strategies, with a focus on the limitations of Neorealist explanations, and possible alternative frameworks. It will also, however, expose the gaps in these theories, and point to the importance of analyzing normative and cultural factors. In Chapter 3, I expand on the concept of political culture and examine Duffield’s cultural framework in the foreign policy field. In this chapter, I examine and explain the aforementioned five cultural dimensions. In order to prepare the reader for the empirical parts, chapter 4 includes a methodological review. In the fifth chapter, I surveyed secondary literature providing the values for each dimension, and subsequently predicts what Japan’s China policy, based on political culture, will look like. In the sixth and seventh chapter, I test these predictions by closely examining the policy documents. Finally, I conclude by giving an overview of the results, theoretical implications, limitations to this research, and implications for further research. 5 Chapter 2 Literature Review The essential question underlying this thesis is whether cultural explanations can serve to explain Japan’s China policy, and how important they are compared to those of Realism. The difference between the two approaches lays in the view of the international system or the domestic context as the source for foreign policy behavior. Of all IR theories, Realism focuses on systemic factors the most, and is therefore a useful framework of comparison. Moreover, Realism has a rigid and law-like view on the international system, and treats the circumstances defining the conduct of international relations as a given. The anarchic structure of the world, the lack of trust and cooperation amongst states and the resulting quest for power and security are thought to be inherent in the system. Regarding this quest, it focuses on the material factors of politics, and argues that material differences, in wealth and military prowess, are important drivers of particular behavior. Within Realism, there is little space for the domestic context of politics, whether it differs per country, culture, or whether it is constructed by human agency. Therefore, Realism can only explain patterns in international relations that conform with the basic structure of the system, and the according behavior. Forms of conduct that do not fit the eternal competition for power and security are not well explained by Realism, and thus other explanations need to be found. This behavior can take many alternative forms, and different theories provide different explanations for them. Neorealism As this thesis aims to juxtapose Realism with political culture, it is useful to examine the strengths and limitations of Realism, and how well it fits regarding Japan’s foreign policy. Realist theory is based on the premise that a fixed international structure determines state behavior. It carries five important assumptions about state behavior in the conduct of international relations. First, the state system is anarchic, meaning there is a lack of a global government which regulates state behavior. Second, in the absence of a global ‘regulator’, states cannot be restrained from above, and therefore cannot trust the intentions of other states. Third, the prime objective of a state is to survive, and fourth, states will develop strategies to achieve this goal. Finally, as part of this strategy, states will develop military capabilities to protect themselves or deter possible enemies. 3 Within Realism, two major schools of thought can be distinguished that: offensive and defensive realism. The distinction between these two forms a more general type within Realism, namely Neorealism. This distinction has important implications for the interpretation of Japan’s foreign policy, because it produces different expected strategies. The difference between offensive and defensive realism 3 John J. Mearsheimer, ‘’The False Promise of International Institutions’’, International Security, vol. 19(3), 1994 6 revolves around the expected strategy of states to achieve security, and fundamentally, how strongly a state should maximize its strength and power to realize this. The crucial difference between offensive and defensive realism is the expected power needed to achieve security. Offensive realists hold that states need to maximize power, whereas defensive realists assert that states rather seek security by joining coalitions with the aim of balancing other ones. Offensive realism, as Mearsheimer puts it, holds that in order to self-preserve, the ultimate goal of each state is to achieve hegemony. 4 Hegemony is of crucial importance to states because threats to security will usually arise from other states challenging the position of the aspiring hegemon. 5 In order to achieve hegemony, states will develop military capabilities to deter or challenge rival states. These capabilities are aggressive by nature, because the state will do anything it can to avoid challenges from rival powers. Mearsheimer recognizes that it is very difficult to achieve worldwide hegemony, but predicts that states will seek to become the dominant power in their region. The dark prediction of this theory holds that powermaximizing states, in their competition for hegemony, will eventually clash, and (violent) conflict will emerge. Defensive realism holds a less pessimistic outlook, as it does not believe that states will seek to achieve hegemony or power maximization per se. They acknowledge the paramount need for security but do not believe that hegemony is the tool with which to achieve it. Rather, defensive realism asserts that states will be more cautious and adopt a balancing strategy, rather than arming oneself or seeking the help from a strong state. Kenneth Waltz, the seminal author on defensive realism, did not believe that states will always pursue aggressive strategies to either reach hegemony or deter others. He stated that the cost of aggression and expansion is often too high, and that conflict therefore is undesirable. This holds especially since conflict is caused by adopting aggressive strategies. Instead, managing a coalition to balance others is deemed more effective, and less destructive. 6 Offensive and defensive realism offer differing expected strategies. Defensive realism will lead states to join coalitions to balance their rivals, whereas offensive realism usually predicts states will aim for hegemony. If they are not able to, they will bandwagon and join a coalition. A second option, according to Mearsheimer involves both balancing and ‘buck-passing’, a strategy which alleviates the burden of defense to another state. This is an attractive scenario because it saves costs of armaments, leaves the risk to another state, and could be wise in case the adversary is strong. Conflicting states separated by water seem to prefer buck-passing, especially when both are roughly equally strong in terms of military prowess. 7 Jennifer Lind states that buck-passing is attractive to 4 Mearsheimer, ‘’The Tragedy of Great Power Politics’’, New York: Norton, 2001 pp. 34-35. Mearsheimer, ‘’The Tragedy of Great Power Politics’’, pp. 35. 6 Kenneth Waltz, ‘’A Theory of International Politics’’, New York: McGraw Hill, 1979, pp. 126. 7 Glenn Snyder, Mearsheimer’s World-Offensive Realism and the Struggle for Security, International Security, vol. 27(1), 2002, pp. 162. 5 7 countries that are militarily advanced, relatively safe, and have strong allies. She believes Japan largely fits these aspects and concluded that Japan has followed a buck-passing strategy associated with Realism, because it had to make security arrangements in the face of the Cold War in Asia, and did so through its alliance with the US, relieving it from pressures of rearmament. Mearsheimer argued that China’s rise will be accompanied by a search for hegemony which is ultimately a threat to its neighbors in the region. He states that China, like the US in 19th century, will proclaim its own ‘Monroe’ doctrine, thereby dominating East Asia and excluding influence from outside powers like the United States. 8 Although he does not expect China to conquer countries, he believes it would try to deter the US navy. This way, China would come to dominate Asia strategically, and set regional rules. He predicts that China’s neighbors, including Japan, will form a balancing coalition to contain China and maintain the status quo. This balancing coalition will be led by the US, as this country has a network of security alliances in the region, and forms the most credible deterrent to Chinese power. As a result, the US and China’s neighbors will share the similar goal of trying to contain China by forging political alliances and bundling their military forces. Japan will perceive China as a threat, and join this balancing coalition. Indeed, China’s increasing military capabilities, especially its naval buildup, have already caused significant concern in Japan. China’s submarine forces are able to deny foreign navies access to the Taiwan straits, and its launch of an aircraft carrier has fueled the belief China seeks to build a ‘blue water navy’, ensuring Chinese access to the greater Pacific Ocean. In addition, its claims to the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands are perceived to be part of a larger pattern of aggressive and hegemonic behavior.9 Gronning argues that, in response, Japan is aiming to balance China by improving its own naval capacities, and enhancing its military cooperation with the US since 1996, when US President Clinton and Prime Minister Hashimoto established new defense guidelines. Jennifer Lind corroborates this by arguing that Japan has indeed joined a balancing coalition by passing the buck to the US, and built a formidable and technologically advanced Self-Defense Force, with the world’s sixth largest budget. Although Japan has periodically pursued an accommodating policy which, especially under the DPJ administration from 2009-2010, Atanassova- Cornelis argues that Japan’s policy was highly subject to changes in the security environment. Collisions with China near the Senkaku/Diaoyu revealed a deeply rooted fear of Chinese aggression, and even the moderate DPJ government went ahead to strengthen the SDF, and enhance the alliance with the US, as well as regional partnerships. 10 This analysis based, focusing on external threats and buck passing would strengthen the offensive Neorealist analysis. 8 Mearsheimer, ‘’Can China Rise Peacefully?’’, National Interest, 2014. Bjorn Gronning, ‘’Japan’s Shifting Military Priorities: Counterbalancing China’s Rise’’, Asian Security, vol. 10(1), 2014, pp. 14-15. 10 Elena Atanassova-Cornelis ‘’Shifting Domestic Politics and Security Policy in Japan and Taiwan: The Search for a Balancing Strategy Between China and the US’’, Asia Pacific Review, vol. 20(1), 2013, pp. 74-75. 9 8 Limits to Neorealism Although Neorealism provides clear and rigid answers regarding Japan’s foreign policy there are clear limitations to these interpretations of foreign policy making, and existing Realist literature does not adequately address them. This section will address two major observations: Japan’s engagement with China and its anti-militarist course. First of all, it can be doubted whether Japan has consistently viewed China as a rival and potential adversary. Hughes argued that Japan has sought a dual China policy aiming to both engage the country and hedge against its rise. For decades, Japan has enjoyed strong economic relations with China, provided development aid, and cooperated in regional institutions.11 It does not deny China’s political and military rise has been a source of concern, and Japan has diplomatically sought to counter Chinese influence, but a mixed picture emerges. Jerden and Hagstrom went even further, by stating that Japan has fully facilitated China’s rise and did not pursue policies to counter it. After analyzing Japan’s policies regarding China’s core interests, they concluded that Japan adhered to the One-China policy, did not support Tibetan independence movements, and refrained from undermining the regime’s legitimacy via human rights diplomacy.12 Moreover, Japan has fully supported China’s integration into the global trade system, WTO, and regional economic institutions like APEC. In addition, it became one of China’s largest trading partners and investors. In the military and security realm, Jerden and Hagstrom argue that Japan has never expressly criticized China’s military buildup, but mainly expressed concern about its lack of transparency. On the basis of these findings, they deny that Tokyo tries to contain China, or adhere to a balancing strategy. 13 They discard the Neorealist predictions, and argue that Japan has consistently engaged and supported China’s rise. The second argument problematizing Neorealist assertions seems to be Japan’s reluctance to apply its military in foreign relations. Neorealist authors have described Japan’s hedging strategy that includes enhanced military capabilities and increased cooperation with the US. This observation creates the image that Japan is becoming an increasingly militarized and assertive country in response to external threats. The image is misleading, however, because Japan’s policy strategies have not significantly altered in recent years. A far stronger signal than Japan’s mild response to China’s military buildup, has been its own hesitation to build a stronger military. The most fundamental challenge to Neorealist expectations is Japan’s commitment to keep military spending under 1% of its GDP. 14 In fact, throughout the 1990s, when according to Yahuda relations rapidly worsened, Japan 11 Christopher Hughes, ‘’Japan’s Response to China’s Rise: Regional Engagement, Global Containment, Dangers of Collision’’, International Affairs, vol. 85(4), 2009, pp. 854-856. 12 Bjorn Jerden and Linus Hagstrom, ‘’Rethinking Japan’s China Policy: Japan as an Accommodator in the Rise of China’’, Journal of East Asian Studies, vol. 12(2), 2012, pp. 223-231. 13 Jerden and Hagstrom, ‘’Rethinking Japan’s China Policy: Japan as an Accommodator in the Rise of China’’, pp. 239-241. 14 Ibid, pp. 239-241. 9 froze its defense budget and reduced arms procurements. 15 In addition, Article 9 of the Japanese constitution states that war will be renounced as a means for settling disputes in international affairs. Japan thus seems to be influenced by an antimilitaristic tradition which has hitherto prevented it from responding assertively to balance China’s rise. Singh has argued that this passive role emerged because Japan adopted a post-war identity as a ‘peace state’, and avoided military involvement in regional and global security matters. 16 Oros stated that Japan developed an approach towards security that is rooted in an anti-militaristic identity, leading it to abandon a regular military as well as the possibility of waging foreign wars. 17 This literature indicates one should look beyond conventional paradigms in explaining policy behavior. The inadequacy of Neorealism, but the literature that points out the limitations to Neorealism as well is not only confusing and contradictory in terms of predictions, but also often fails to explain this behavior. Mochizuki and Jerden and Hagstrom have argued that China has engaged China instead of containing it, but inadequately explain the exact reasons for this. 18 Kang argued that in the face of strategic challenges posed by China, Japan failed to rearm itself, or join a coalition aiming to contain it. In addition, he concludes that Asian states may not conform well to the Westphalian logic of balance-of-power politics because of their different history, religion, culture politics and geography.19 While this may be true, Kang does not specify or elaborate the reasons for this deviant behavior.20 In this thesis I will build on the anti-militarist findings and argue that cultural premises often left out of literature dealing with mainstream IR theories could fill this gap. Oros and Singh have pointed to Japan’s post-war identity as a ‘peace state’ or anti-militarist sentiment and provide directions about the normative and identity aspects of Japan’s policies. It can be said that Japan has been worried about the strategic implications of China’s rise and its behavior in the East Asia, but has consistently engaged China while hedging against its rise. To achieve this, it has deepened its alliance with the US, but failed to significantly remilitarize. This would fit Lind’s buck-passing hypothesis, but Japan’s acquiescence in China’s rise and cooperative stance still poses challenges. In light of these puzzles, I further examine possible identity and culture-based explanations in the next chapter. 15 Hartwig Hummel, ‘’Japan’s Military Expenditures after the Cold War: The Realism of the Peace Dividend’’, Australian Journal of International Affairs, vol. 50(2), 1996, pp. 140-147. 16 Bhubhindar Singh, ‘’Japan’s Security Policy: From a Peace State to an International State’’, Pacific Review, vol. 21(3), 2008, pp. 311-312. 17 Andrew Oros, ‘’Japan’s Strategic Culture: Security Identity in a Fourth Modern Incarnation?’’, Contemporary Security Policy, vol. 35(2), 2014, pp. 230-234. 18 Mochizuki, Mike, ‘’Japan’s Shifting Strategy Towards the Rise of China’’, Journal of Strategic Studies, vol.30(4-5), 2007. 19 David Kang, ‘’Getting Asia Wrong, the Need for New Analytical Frameworks’’, International Security, Vol.27(4), 2003, pp. 73-79. 20 Mochizuki, , ‘’Japan’s Shifting Strategy Towards the Rise of China’’. 10 Chapter 3 Theoretical Framework This explanatory gap may be filled by a cultural approach. Cultural variables are difficult to translate into these frameworks, and are a different way of looking at IR altogether. These variables concern the social characteristics of a particular group, and are therefore a non-systemic, focusing on intangible aspects of statecraft. Culture provides the social and ideational component of behavior, and can therefore provide insights into the origins and imperatives of certain policy objectives. They can give an ‘inside-out’ explanation for international politics, because it involves social beliefs, attitudes and norms towards politics; in other words, the views of the population. When it comes to particular state policies, the foreign and security policies of Germany and Japan have proven to be key conundrums to Realist theory, and important cases for applying cultural variables. Duffield has identified political culture to be an important factor in explaining Germany’s post-World War 2 security policy. The reason for his interest in cultural factors has been the inadequacy of Neorealism to explain Germany’s reluctant foreign policy compared to its status as a great power in Europe, with the world’s third largest economy. The fact that Germany never sought to expand influence or rebuild its military pointed to inhibiting domestic factors. Germany had been highly reluctant to participate in international interventions, and preferred to take action via international organizations. He identified that German politicians have had a broadly shared political culture that was strongly anti-militarist and in favor of multilateralism, leading him to conclude that this cultural component could not be neglected when researching foreign policy. Thomas Berger drew a similar conclusion in his work ‘Cultures of anti-militarism: National Security in Germany and Japan’. Like Germany, Japan pursued a low-key foreign policy and resisted building up its military commensurate with its economic growth. These cases provide evidence there are phenomena that not only cannot be explained by Realism, but point to the importance of political culture. Duffield, in his book ‘World Power Forsaken’, has listed a number of aspects of political culture one can measure to analyze national security policy, and I am aiming to apply those to Japan’s policy regarding China. These aspects are worldviews and the interpretation of the global environment, definitions of the national interest that shape policy objectives, identity and emotional attachment, the identification of policy options, and how these options are weighed against each other, and norms and values regarding the policy conduct. 21 The sub-categories I will further research are the sub-elements of these aspects explained by Duffield. These are the aforementioned views on the international structure and the role of the country in it, perceptions of conflict and that of other countries, in this case China. The concept of political culture is quite elusive, and difficult to grasp. It is a term that consists of two 21 John Duffield, ‘’World Power Forsaken’’, Stanford University Press, 1998, pp. 26-27. 11 separate terms, both of which are very broad, and therefore hard to define. Politics, for instance, could refer to governance, power relationships, or the way certain actors influence others. Culture, on the other hand, could refer to habits or predispositions about the world as a whole. In the early 20th century, anthropological insights were used to describe national predispositions of countries, culminating in the publishing of Ruth Benedict’s 1946 ‘The Chrysanthemum and the Sword’, the first comprehensive account on Japan’s national character and several studies on Russia’s national culture. 22 These studies, however, lacked scientific rigor because they were insufficiently measured or surveyed. The first researchers to formally investigate cultural attitudes regarding the constellation of the domestic political system were Almond and Verba’s 1963 ‘The Civic Culture’. In this work, they conducted a survey research to uncover the relationship between cultural attitudes and the emergence of a democratic polity. Not only did they find a rigorous way to operationalize culture, but also found a direct link between them, with civic culture as a necessary condition for democracy. 23 Thus, the outcome of a political process; the formation of a democracy, was connected with cultural attitudes regarding political life. These group attitudes seemed to play a role regarding nature of political life. As a result, the term political culture became much more common, and new methodologies to operationalize the concept were developed. According to Duffield, political culture pertains to ‘’the subjective orientations toward and assumptions about the political world that characterize the members of a particular society’’.24 The International Encyclopedia of Social Sciences defines it as "the set of attitudes, beliefs and sentiments that give order and meaning to a political process and which provide the underlying assumptions and rules that govern behavior in the political system". 25 In other words, attitudes, beliefs and sentiments can be considered a ‘mind set’ that shapes or predisposes towards a particular worldview. This mind set of a community forms assumptions about the world that eventually predispose a community towards certain courses of action. These outcomes are shaped in a particular way because these attitudes define the realm of the possible and impossible regarding policy choices. 26 Political culture influences whether and how certain problems are identified, and determines the range of choices. It limits this set of options to the socially acceptable, and will not consider alternative options because they are inherently inappropriate or deviant. 27 This concerns both the 22 Lucian Pye, ‘’Political Culture Revisited’’, Political Psychology, vol. 12(3), 1991, pp. 495-496. Lucian Pye, ‘’Political Culture Revisited’’, pp. 499. 24 Duffield, ‘’Political Culture and State Behavior: Why Germany Confounds Neorealism’’, pp. 795-796. 25 Smelser and Baltes, ‘’International Encyclopedia of Social and Behavioral Sciences’’, Elsevier, 2001. 26 David J. Elkins and Richard E. B. Simeon, ‘’A Cause in Search of Its Effect, or What Does Political Culture Explain?’’, Comparative Politics, Vol. 11, No. 2, Jan 1979, pp. 127-128. 23 27 David J. Elkins and Richard E. B. Simeon, ‘’A Cause in Search of Its Effect, or What Does Political Culture Explain?’’, pp .128 12 overall aims of a community, and particular policy choices. 28 Political culture, for instance, influences both the general interest (or national interest) of a certain group, and specific courses of action that aim to advance this interest. In addition, political culture shapes the view of the political environment. Acting as a lens, political culture conditions the way this environment is interpreted, and which characteristics or events are noticed or investigated. Culture causes people to be selective regarding issue salience, and therefore it affects which issues are considered important, and how they should be understood. 29 This interpretive effect also shapes goal and policy formulation, as these are often based on an interpretation of a certain event or phenomenon. There are three important mechanisms that undergird political culture. First, it has a cognitive component that consists of the way people form a belief, empirically and causally. Second, it has an evaluative part which comprises norms and values, and third, it has an affective part that describes a degree of emotional attachment. This has to do with the way people feel about a certain issue, and whether they care deeply, feel antipathy, or indifference. 30 As political culture pertains to the nature of politics in the eyes of a particular community, the issues and questions related to political culture closely reflect these mechanisms. Although inexhaustible, Elkins and Simeon listed several general types of beliefs that form political culture. First, related to the cognitive component, the way a community looks at world events can be based on human agency or randomness and fate. Whether a group of people believes destiny is in their own hands or in that of nature already separates some political communities from others, as some communities may attribute certain occurrences to nature, or to be explained by religion, rather than human ones. 31 Second they identify overall political aims to be another element, which reflects the evaluative part, as political aims could reflect norms, values and beliefs. Another type of assumption would relate to the membership of the political community. Who is in, and who is out of the group is related to the affective component of political culture. In order to be accepted as a member, the community has to feel some sort of attachment to the persons or entities wanting to join the community. 32This also closely relates to the perception of non-members in general. The view towards other people(s) or (political) communities and the sense of ‘Self’ and ‘Other’ is a part of political culture. As will be shown later, this can be considered an issue of identity, which in itself is an important aspect of political culture. Political culture has three other characteristics; First, it is the property of a community rather than an individual. The reason for this is the intersubjective nature of culture, as norms and values are shared amongst more than one human, and thus a community. Second, it is highly unique to a particular community. Few, if any, are completely similar to that of another political culture. This has 28 28 Duffield, ‘Political Culture and State Behavior: Why Germany Confounds Neorealism’, pp. 771-772. Ibid. 30 John Duffield, ‘’World Power Forsaken’’, pp. 23. 31 Elkins and Simeon, pp.132 32 Ibid. 29 13 an important implication for state behavior, as states that are in similar (material) geopolitical positions may still have differing foreign policy strategies. Third, political cultures do not change quickly. 33 They are persistent over time, and if they change, they do so gradually. This is because political culture reflects common beliefs, and tautologically, deviant views are simply rare or nonexistent. These common beliefs also represent deeper underlying social values and norms that hardly change. Finally, the process of cognitive dissonance ensures that deviant views are simply rarely, if at all, considered, and most information merely reflects or acknowledges the existing culture. The lack of deviant views, in turn, ensures that very little information is produced which defies common beliefs. 34 As a result of these processes, cultures tend to be very ‘sticky’, and hence may exert influence on policy for extended periods of time. Political Culture and Foreign Policy Culture in general, and political culture in particular affects national security policy and strategic behavior. Peter Katzenstein and Thomas Berger are two influential IR scholars that have examined the role of culture and norms on national security strategies. Katzenstein and others, in the book ‘The Culture of National Security’ argued that cultural factors play an important role in politics because structural (Realist) factors alone could not explain the formulation of a ‘national interest’ .35 Berger, a researcher with a particular focus on Japan, stated that Japan’s cultural anti-militarism is an essential factor in explaining its long standing policy of refusing to remilitarize. In short, political culture shapes policy strategies and cannot be disregarded as an explanatory element. Duffield’s categorizations of political culture Duffield devised a framework which identified how political culture affects foreign policy. These dimensions are worldviews and the interpretation of the global environment, identity and emotional attachment, definitions of the national interest, the identification of policy options and how these options are weighed against each other, and norms and ethics regarding the conduct of policy. 36 He further categorizes these elements by explaining the most important sub-elements they consist of, as summarized below: 1) Worldviews - Interpretation of international environment (Is it anarchic or cooperative?) - What are the chances of conflict and cooperation? - View of role the country plays on the world stage - View of other states as enemies or allies 33 Duffield, ‘’Political Culture and State Behavior: Why Germany Confounds Neorealism’’, pp. 771-772. Ibid, pp. 770-771. 35 Katzenstein, ‘’The Culture of National Security’’, New York: Columbia University Press, 1996, pp. 461. 36 John Duffield ‘’World Power Forsaken’’, pp. 24-26. 34 14 2) Identity and emotional attachment - Are there other countries one’s own country is particularly attached to? - What is the national identity and self-image? 3) Definitions of national interest (Does it fit into the country’s self-perception?) 4) Identification and weighing of policy options - Why are some issues considered more important than others? - Why are some issues identified as problems that need to be solved with a certain policy? - How are policy options selected, and what are the reasons for it? 5) Norms and values regarding policy conduct - What constitutes ethical policy? - Does it reflect national norms and values? First, world views refer to the way the international structure is perceived, and what role a particular country plays. The international structure is constituted by theoretical visions on how world politics works, what the most important actors are, and how the chances of cooperation and conflict are estimated. Visions on the international structure are closely related to IR theories regarding conflict and cooperation, and thus whether conflict is inevitable (Neorealism) or whether cooperation is possible (Liberalism). Whether a country sees conflict as evitable or inevitable is an important measure of the chance of cooperation. The perception of other countries as foes or allies is another measurable expression of this view towards conflict. Naturally, reflecting the variety of IR theories and models for world politics, there are other visions on the world structure that transcend the aforementioned frameworks. Communist states, for instance, have adhered to ideas of world politics reflecting Structuralism. Finally, the country’s perception of its own role on the world stage is highly important as well, because it says a lot about its vision on the international structure. If a state is concerned about the inevitability of conflict, it might seek defense arrangements or armaments, whereas states that believe in the prospect of cooperation may focus less on security matters, and on economic cooperation, institutionalism and integration instead. Second, identity and emotional attachment affects foreign policy as identity shapes the selfimage and perceived role of the country on the world stage. Identity refers to the characterization of one’s self, and the features attributed to the self. According to James Fearon, identity is a social category, meaning it represents the parameters of membership of the group, and the characteristics associated with members of that group. 37 Thus identity would be unique to a particular group, the nation, and reflect its characteristics. Regarding the perception of other states or institutions, emotional attachment is highly important because it may determine how strongly the state feels about other entities. If there are strong feelings of enmity, resentment or mistrust, then this may cause 37 James Fearon, ‘’What is Identity’’, Stanford University Draft Paper, 1999, pp. 7-14. 15 strained relations or even conflict. On the other hand, a sense of affection, camaraderie, or friendship towards another entity and may lead a country to actively search for good relations, partnerships, or even alliances and security communities. In other words, identity and feelings towards other entities influence and shape foreign policies. Third, the formulation of overarching political goals, or the national interest is another expression of political culture in the foreign policy domain. Political goals, whether they be domestic or international, are eventually the product of political culture. Fundamentally, these goals reflect values and norms regarding the nature of politics in a country. These political norms and values shape preferences for particular policy outcomes, and the articulation of a particular national interest. This in turn influences foreign policy strategies. This may be an explanatory factor, as national interests are not the same for all polities. Fourth, political culture affects the way policy options are explored and considered. As mentioned before, the identification of certain problems, and the importance and salience of certain issues is influenced by political culture. Thus, before a policy is examined at all, the problem identification underlying it is already subject to a political attitude. When an issue has been identified, and considered a problem in the first place, the policymaking process is also affected, as, according to Duffield, the weighing of policy options and cost-benefit analysis is subject to political culture as well. The value attached to certain political outcomes may differ across political cultures. This is the same for the means and methods of policymaking, as these are different across cultural spectrums. These means and methods are closely related to the final aspect of political cultural in the foreign policy realm; namely the norms and values concerning policy conduct. What constitutes as legitimate, ethical, humane or otherwise appropriate policy varies across political cultures, and is unique to the political system of each polity or country. What is considered appropriate handling of policy in one polity, may not necessarily be accepted as such in another. 38 Therefore, differing norms and values highly shape political outcomes in different polities. Strengths and Limitations One should be careful, however, not to use political culture as a deterministic explanation. It is only one explanation, out of many, and therefore it can only be one piece of the puzzle of explain policy behavior. Duffield, has identified several other factors that determine certain policy actions, distinguishing between the international and domestic realms. With regards to the international, he states that international structure and international institutions are highly influential, and regarding the domestic he considers material factors and national predispositions to be highly important, with 38 Ibid. 16 predispositions mainly determined by political culture. 39 Therefore, Duffield does not rule out systemic factors, or IR theories, as he recognizes the importance of systemic factors. He acknowledges that IR theories such as Realism are still important explanatory factors. However, he points to the limited availability of research on culture as an explanatory factor. Nevertheless, the frameworks of Duffield, Katzenstein and Berger all point to its importance. Chapter 4 Methodology and data In order to investigate how political culture affects Japan’s foreign policy, I relied on a two-step methodological approach which examines secondary literature and primary sources. First, I used secondary literature to identify the expected attitude of Japan’s foreign policy making elites toward these measures of political culture. This way I can get an overview of the role of political culture in Japan, with which I can devise expectations for the values for the dimensions of political culture in Japan’s foreign policy making. Second, I tested these predictions by applying it to its China policy through examining primary sources, and researching whether the predictions generated by secondary literature can be observed in the data. This ensures there is no tautological bias in the research, avoiding the trap of merely drawing conclusions from official policy positions derived from available documents. Thus, when examining Japan’s foreign policy, it is important to see whether this in fact reflects the tenets of its governments’ political culture, as categorized by Duffield. Empirically, this means that I will delve into the specific China policies of this country, and check whether these reflect cultural norms or systemic factors associated with Realism. In order to draw conclusions about the role of culture, it is important to investigate whether the parameters for political culture identified above and deduced preferences can be identified, and research whether the China policy of these states actually reflects these preferences, or rather other Realist systemic factors. Secondary Literature To generate theoretical expectations for Japan’s political culture in the foreign policy domain that I could subsequently test, I relied on secondary literature focusing on these cultural factors. To gather information on the cultural factors as outlined in Duffield’s model, the overview focuses on literature that concerns the aspects and their sub-categories for political culture relevant in the foreign policy realm. In the review, I listed the relevant predictions for Japan’s actual policies regarding the dimensions for political culture, for each of Duffield’s aspects. This way, I attempted to generate a complete as possible list of values generating a comprehensive outline of Japan’s political culture in the foreign policy realm. First, I described the origins and general features of this culture, and subsequently examine each theme, aiming to outline the scholarly consensus on that particular 39 John Duffield ‘’World Power Forsaken’’, pp. 13-32. 17 dimension. After listing the values, I interpreted them to generate expected foreign policy strategies that correspond best with the cultural traits. For instance, when identifying a particular cultural norm of anti-militarism, it can be expected that this country would be hesitant to deploy its military. Moreover, I apply these values to the Sino-Japanese relationship in particular, and list the consequences for its China policy of each variable. That way, I formulated hypotheses that can be tested in the empirical section. Empirics In order to investigate how strongly political culture affects foreign policy, I relied on a qualitative analysis of Japan’s China policy. To that end, I collected policy documents to gain an understanding of these policies and uncover its foundations. This is crucial, because this information may reflect the political attitudes of policy making elites as theorized by Duffield, and examined by secondary literature on Japan’s political culture. Based on methodology outlined above, notably the importance of policymaking elites, I used primary sources originating from the Japanese government. Regarding foreign policy, one has to focus on the institutions occupied with foreign policy making. Thus, when researching political culture, it is useful to investigate the beliefs, norms and attitudes of policy elites. In the domain of foreign policy making, one has to focus on the beliefs and attitudes of diplomats in order to identify the basic tenets behind foreign policy. These beliefs and approaches often reflect national experiences and history, or other cultural traits, so when explaining why the government considers these approaches important, it is important to look at national history, cultural, or other factors that explain these policy preferences, and see whether this is reflected in actual policy documents. These documents are officially published foreign policy strategies aimed at informing the public on Japan’s overall foreign and security strategies, as well as regional, topical issues, and SinoJapanese relations. In this research, I have analyzed the annual Diplomatic Blue Books and 2013 National Security Strategy, because these are readily accessible, and more specific documents are very difficult to obtain or classified. Nevertheless, these documents contain much information on Japan’s China policies, and are thus very useful for my analysis. Furthermore, because these documents cover a broad number of areas and strategies, they include the motivations and background of different policy strategies, enabling a researcher to gain insights about the cultural or structural elements. In order to research this I coded the content of the primary data into distinct themes and subthemes that reflect the nature of the policy. These themes broadly reflect cultural and structural factors. This qualitative coding method means that I identified these themes and checked if policy documents and interviews fit particular themes. At the same time, I analyzed certain quotes in the texts, and marked them in order to see whether it matched a particular theme. This means I paid 18 attention to, for instance, certain assumptions made, domestic references, normative statements, or political goals. By doing that, I can get a clear overview which text fits which theme, and which themes or subthemes within a theme seem most relevant across a number of documents and files. This method clearly demarcates the focus of analysis for each document. After analyzing all available information within each theme, I compared the information between themes and gain insights about all available information altogether. Comparing these themes allows to make a statement whether the values for domestic political culture as identified in secondary literature is reflected in these documents, and if yes, if it fits the predictions of the literature and theory on Japan’s political culture, and how important it is relative to Realism. As the cultural and structural themes cannot easily be distilled from the material, I have analyzed all texts and searched for the presence of these themes, as well as the specific values. To that end, I focused on the aspects most relevant to Duffield’s dimensions, as well as Sino-Japanese relations. These sections included the overall evaluation of international affairs in that year, analyses of regional developments, Sino-Japanese relations, and security and defense policies. After uncovering these themes, I focused on Japan’s China strategy in particular to examine this in light of these findings, and check whether these policy strategies matched the predictions I generated based on secondary literature. Chapter 5 Expectations regarding Japan’s political culture In order to find out whether political culture affects Japan’s China policy, it is necessary to examine what the existing literature tells. In this chapter, I apply Duffield’s framework and find the values for each dimension in secondary literature. I gathered expectations for each dimensions and subsequently tested these in the empirical part. Thus following Duffield’s dimensions, this section will start with an analysis of Japan’s world views and views on the international structure, and accordingly, its attitude toward conflict and cooperation, its role on the world stage, and its perception of other states. As this research is geared towards Japan’s China policy, I will investigate Japan’s perceptions of China. In the subsequent paragraphs, Duffield’s other aspects will be examined. It is important to note that not every aspect can be evaluated on the basis of secondary literature, or sometimes only partly. However, a general picture, reflecting most of the categorizations is possible to obtain. The observations below suggest a number of findings. First, following the experience of militarism until 1945, Japan has favored a low key foreign policy under the Yoshida doctrine, and eschewed a brand of anti-militarism that does not match its status as economic superpower and political actor very well. Despite its position as the world’s 3rd largest economy, and stakeholder in the G8 and G20 forums, Japan has played a minor role on the world stage. It has favored a foreign policy that left defense matters to the US, and focused on trade and the provision of development aid. Japan preferred to lay low in matters of security, but regarding development, it has seen itself as an 19 important provider of aid and economic security. In terms of national interest, it has quite consistently views peace and prosperity as the core national aims. In recent years, however, there has been a shift from a low key foreign policy, to a more active role on the world stage to protect global commons such as security and development. Japan’s general view on World War 2 Although it is beyond the scope of this thesis to examine the origins of Japanese militarism in the 20th century, a word on the context of Japan’s attitude towards the war is imperative. This is necessary because Japan’s war experience has caused a deeply engrained sense of anti-militarism, and a tendency to lay low in foreign affairs. Its sense of victimhood led it to refocus on economic development, and also provide aid to other developing countries. The defining moment shaping Japan’s foreign and security policy since 1945 has been its defeat in the Second World War. The crushing defeat of the Japanese army, and the devastation of Japan’s cities by US bombing raids and the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki have profoundly shaped Japan’s views on the world as well as foreign policy. Paradoxically, and unlike Germans, however, most Japanese have felt a sense of victimhood, rather than guilt over causing the war. Berger argues that this sense of victimhood originates from the context of Western imperialism in Asia, the military regime in Japan, and the Imperial army, which used Japanese patriotism as a pretext for a destructive process of conquest. 40 He states it was commonly believed that Japan, acting as a ‘vanguard’ for the oppressed nations of Asia, sought to expel Western influence from the continent and create a more independent Asia; an ideology referred to as Asianism. In addition, the Western oil and resource embargo leading up to the attack on Pearl Harbor was seen as a humiliation in the face of ‘legitimate’ Japanese interests. More important, however, was the development of Japan’s military dictatorship ever since the 1868 Meiji restoration. Unlike Germany, the Japanese military leadership gained power gradually through intrigues, coups, political murders, and usurpation. Berger described this as a process which took several decades, and unlike Germany, did not result from a large popular front or civil discontent. In Germany, the sense of guilt about the origins of the Second World War is caused by a fundamental belief that all German people had a share in bringing the Nazi leadership to power. 41 It is broadly recognized that Adolf Hitler was a democratically elected leader with a popular mandate. Japanese, however, have felt less responsible for their leadership because they did not directly put this regime in charge, or have as much influence on it as the Germans did. After the Second World War, 40 Berger, ‘’From Sword to Chrysanthemum: Japan’s Culture of Anti-Militarism’’, International Security, Vol.17(4), 1993, pp. 131-136. 41 Berger, ’’From Sword to Chrysanthemum: Japan’s Culture of Anti-Militarism’’, pp. 131-137. 20 much of the civilian leadership and bureaucracy remained in place, and it was difficult to investigate which elements of the government were particularly aggressive. Thus, it has been hard to identify individual officials and bureaucrats that were particularly responsible for the conduct of the war, apart from those indicted at the Tokyo tribunal. Finally, the distinctive role of the Japanese army has also been considered a factor mitigating guilt from the Japanese people. The military was considered to be an oppressive institution in itself, responsible for many atrocities, and eventually ruining the country. Japanese people often felt their patriotism was abused by the military to unleash a war beyond their control. Germans have identified nationalism to be a root cause of the war, whereas the Japanese have not shared this conclusion. Rather, military rule and doctrine was blamed for the war. This interpretation of Japan’s role in the Second World War, and the sense of victimhood has created a political culture that has determined Japan’s foreign and security policy ever since. The memory of oppressive military leadership has led to a national consensus that favored an antimilitarist foreign policy. According to Oros, the shock of the devastation resulting from the war and the leadership changed Japan’s identity into that of an anti-militaristic state. 42 This eventually determined Japan’s opposition to the buildup of a military, and the use of force in international affairs. As Japan developed as a democracy after 1945, a consensus was forged amongst different political groups with differing visions on Japan’s role in the world. These factions could be broadly distinguished in three categories, representing the left, center and right of the political spectrum. They had differing views towards the role of military, but it is important to note that this spectrum does not represent a scale of pacifism and militarism, but rather the appreciation of Japan’s past. This debate represents two differing views on the past: traditionalism and anti-traditionalism. 43 Traditionalism refers to the view that Japan is a unique civilization, with a particular form of political culture, and specific values like subservience, a focus on community, and a willingness to sacrifice oneself for their country, that should be preserved. It holds that the Western style democracy imposed on Japan in 1945 contradicts these values, and that these democratic values ought to be limited. It carries a positive view towards Japan’s pre-war system, and believes there was nothing ‘wrong’ with these values. This view on Japan’s values has important implications for the perception of Japan’s role in the war. Fundamentally, concerning the cause of the war, traditionalists believe that Japan’s cultural and political values have been an important and positive part of Japan’s history, and that the war itself was caused by the military institutions. Anti-traditionalists, on the other hand, feel that Japan’s political and cultural values themselves have caused the war, and carry a negative view towards these values. Masao Maruyama has argued that the subservient nature of Japan’s cultural values has enabled the rise of Japan’s 42 Oros, ‘’Japan’s Strategic Culture’’, pp. 230-232. Yashuhiro Izumikawa, ‘‘Explaining Japanese Antimilitarism: Normative and Realist Constraints on Japan's Security Policy’’, International Security, vol.35(2), 2010, pp. 130-131. 43 21 military dictatorship. 44 After all, the Japanese did very little to protest or criticize their government. Anti-traditionalists believe that Western democracy, through a system of checks and balances, is the way to prevent cultural values from causing the rise of militarism. It favors a profound change in Japanese society away from traditional values, towards Western ones. It should be noted, however, that anti-traditionalism does not necessarily equal anti-militarism. Anti-traditionalism refers to a particular view on Japanese society, and the analysis that cultural values caused militarism. Therefore, they do not seek to disarm or arm the military, but rather seek social change through establishing Western democracy.45 By the same token, traditionalism and its lack of self-recrimination and sense of victimhood does not necessarily means it opposes disarmament. The distinction serves to underscore the importance of the traditionalism debate alongside the militarism debate, as a determinant of Japan’s view of its role in the world, and resulting security policies. The political factions had differences over both the role of pacifism or militarism in society and traditionalism or anti-traditionalism. The Japanese Left, consisting of the Socialist Party of Japan (JSP) and the Japanese Communist Party (JCP), has been the most vocal proponent of a pacifist and anti-militarist foreign policy. The Left had the most negative view of Japan’s role in the Second World War, strongly recognized and condemned Japanese atrocities and favored complete disarmament. In addition, it leans more towards the anti-traditionalist view on Japanese society. The Right, reflecting a more traditionalist attitude, is more positive of Japan’s past and does not feel the sense of shame of the Left regarding Japan’s pre-war cultural values. It feels these values should be maintained, and that not all aspects of the Western political model are desirable. More so than the Left, it has a positive view towards patriotism and believes that Japan should not be ashamed of its past. Most importantly, regarding the anti-militarism debate, the Right opposes article 9 of the Japanese constitution stating that Japan will never use force to resolve international disputes, and outlaws the possession of offensive military forces. The Right strongly feels that Japan should once again be seen as an ordinary nation that like all other nations possesses the right to have a credible military force, rather than a Self-Defense Force. It is thus in favor of rearming and changing the mandate of its armed forces. Current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a more right leaning leader, for instance, announced in 2014 the Japanese government would interpret article 9 differently to allow for Japanese armed operations abroad.46 The Centre parties in Japan have traditionally favored a middle ground between the two. According to Berger, these parties have been enthusiastic about Western economic policy and a free market economy, but relatively silent regarding security and defense policy. It generally favored a low profile foreign policy, leaving the responsibility of Japan’s defense Izumikawa, ‘‘Explaining Japanese Antimilitarism: Normative and Realist Constraints on Japan's Security Policy’’pp. 131-132. 45 Ibid. 46 http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2014/07/02/editorials/abe-guts-article-9/#.VY0kN_mqpHw,accessed May 9 44 22 largely to the US. Regarding traditionalism, they have found that some aspects of Japan’s past were valuable enough to keep, whereas others were detrimental to Japan’s stability, and favored safeguards against them. 47 Eventually, the Centre parties prevailed and the compromise between all traditions has greatly influenced Japan’s post-war foreign policy. Although the dominant LDP Party reflected both right wing and centrist elements, it came to embrace the centrist policies, rather than right wing ones. Japan’s world views Japan’s world view, and view of the international system was strongly determined by the Yoshida doctrine, which emerged in the early 1950s as the foundation of Japan’s post-war foreign policy. The Yoshida doctrine was remarkable, in that it emerged as a product of early Cold War tensions in Asia, and persisted over time, even long after the end of the Cold War. Crucially, the Yoshida doctrine was a Centrist foreign policy doctrine which emerged as a result of a compromise between the competing political factions. The doctrine was a strategy which allied Japan with the United States to ensure Japan’s security. This allowed for Japan’s economic reconstruction, while upholding Article 9 of the constitution. Economic development became the most important domestic goal, and this meant Japan needed a protector and sound economic relations with other states. 48 Japan’s foreign policy was highly based on trade and Official Development Assistance (ODA) to build economies ties and repair Japan’s global image. Trade policy became the most important aspect of Japan’s security policy, besides the alliance with the US, as the government in 1980 stated that economic ties and development aid were crucial to global stability. 49 In addition, the Yoshida doctrine attached great importance to a low key foreign policy, avoiding antagonistic foreign policies. David Potter argues that this strategy, in fact, served to improve Japan’s reputation, as it meant Japan would become one of the top donors to the UN. The commitment to multilateralism served to build a reputation of Japan as a country committed to international stability and cooperation. The Yoshida doctrine had roots in Japan’s world views, but these views have been remarkably weakly articulated. Ed Bergstrom argues that Japan’s leaders have mostly been silent regarding their evaluation of the rules of international politics. 50 The international system is perceived to be complex, unclear, and therefore Prime Minister Obuchi Keizo declared in 1999 that an observant and calm approach to international politics was needed. Nevertheless, Bergstrom found that during the first decades of the Cold War, Japanese leaders perceived the world to be bipolar, divided between two ideological superpowers. The balance of power structure was perceived to be conducive to peace, 47 Berger, ‘’From Sword to Chrysanthemum: Japan’s Culture of Anti-Militarism’’, pp. 139. David M. Potter, in Rubio Diaz Leal, Laura, ed. China y Japon: Modernizacion Economica, Cambios Politicos y Posicionamiento Mundial, Mexico City: Editorial Castillo, 2008. 49 Potter, ibid. 50 Ed Bergstrom, ‘’The Yoshida Doctrine and the Unipolar World’’ in Hood (ed), ‘’The Politics of Modern Japan’’, New York: Routledge, 2010, pp. 68. 48 23 and Japan felt it was difficult to change this situation, but rather adapt to it. After the Cold War, Japan recognized the world structure was no longer divided, and accepted that in the face of new uncertainties, Japan should play a more active role on the world stage. 51 Prime Minister Hashimoto stated that Japan should not take the post-Cold War ‘Pax Americana’ for granted, but actively aim to strengthen it and contribute to global peace and stability. This outlook points to the next sub-element of world views, namely the perceived role of the country in the world National Role Bergstrom stated that Japan, from the early Cold War until the mid-1990s, had a stable and clearly defined role on the world stage. This role was that Japan viewed itself as contributing to peace and prosperity. In addition, it saw itself as a stabilizing force and a partner in development. Berger accordingly identified Japan’s role as that of a trading nation that focuses on the economy. 52 During the 1990s, however, this focus shifted, and Japan started to attach relatively more importance to peace than global prosperity. Bergstrom argues this is due to the onset of Japan’s economic stagnation, beginning in the 1990s. As a consequence, Japan could not afford to spend the same amount of resources to foreign development aid and cooperation, and rather focused on the domestic economy. A second change in the 1990s was the shift towards a more active role on the world stage regarding peace and stability. Japan increasingly identified itself as a ‘leader’, and focused on contributing to the UN and multilateral organizations, with the continuing aim of contributing to international peace and stability. 53 Nevertheless, the ways in which Japan seeks to achieve this have been ill-defined and vague. In the face of an uncertain and complex world, in which Japan has to closely monitor for threats and contingencies, these developments would imply that Japan would currently be pursuing a more activist foreign policy aimed at providing global commons. Although prosperity is still an important part of Japan’s overall aims, it has an increasingly global focus towards ensuring peace. Therefore, an increased role in defense and security matters, as well as discussions on global commons in multilateral organizations would be a logical outcome. This also means that Japan, faced with the uncertain implications of China’s rise, would pursue a more active or assertive foreign policy regarding China. The aim of this more active foreign policy would be enhanced stability in the region. National Interest These developments also closely relate to the perception of the national interest. Like the national role, the articulation of the national interest experienced a shift after the Cold War. Until the 51 Bergstrom, ‘’The Yoshida Doctrine and the Unipolar World’’, pp. 69-71. Thomas Berger, ’’Unsheathing the Sword: Germany’s and Japan’s Fractured Political-Military Cultures and the Problem of Burden Sharing’, World Affairs, vol.158(4), 1996, pp.187. 53 Bergstrom, ‘’The Yoshida Doctrine and the Unipolar World’’ pp. 73-75. 52 24 mid-1990s, the national interest was predominantly defined as the achievement of ‘peace, security, recognition, and prosperity’. 54 These four elements were roughly equally important, and Bergstrom concluded that Japan did not value any one of them above the others. This changed slightly during the 1990s, when Japan considered prosperity to be increasingly important relative to peace. As mentioned before, this was largely due to the economic crisis, and uncertainties about Japan’s future prosperity. Economic wellbeing became the new overarching national interest, articulated by several Prime Ministers. This does not mean, however, that these aims have changed fundamentally. Bergstrom argues that rather than a change in interest perception, there has been a shift in accents and relative importance of each interest. Japan’s perceived roles, and national interests have endured over time, and did not experience a change in content. This finding points to the endurance of political culture, and its resistance to change. This would explain why the Yoshida doctrine has formed the basis for its foreign policy over decades since the end of the war. Identity and emotional attachment As this thesis centers around Sino-Japanese relations, this section will elaborate on Japan’s view of China, and the degree of friendliness and camaraderie between the two states. Japan’s relationship with China has been influenced strongly by the development in favorability views in the past three decades. The most important trend has been a steady but consistent worsening in Japan’s view of China since the end of the Cold War. In the 1980s, these sentiments were positive, as a result of the leadership change, opening up of China to foreign investment, and development towards a market economy. Polls conducted by the Japanese government pointed to a 70-75% favorability rating of China amongst the Japanese public. 55 This positive era in bilateral relations ended quite abruptly however, after the end of the Cold War, when the 1989 Tiananmen square crackdown by the Chinese government became a cause of severe concern in Japan. The violent suppression of protests strongly damaged Japan’s view of China, and polls conducted in the aftermath of the incident indicated that now only 50% of Japanese had a positive view of China. 56 Throughout the 1990s, several incidents caused an even further decline, and eventually had the effect of altering Japan’s foreign policy, as public opinion became more important. First, the 1994 launch of several missiles over the Sea of Japan by North Korea sowed doubt about China’s good intentions, as China had been a consistent supporter of North Korea’s communist regime. Second, contrary to earlier promises, China tested nuclear devices in 1995, which resulted in street protests in Japan. Third, when China launched missiles over the Taiwan Straits in 1996, in an attempt to deter a possible Taiwanese secession, Japan also became concerned about China’s territorial ambitions. These occurrences deeply fueled distrust 54 Ibid, pp. 71-73. Michael Yahuda, ‘’Sino-Japanese Relations after the Cold War’’, Routledge, 2014 pp. 30-31. 56 Mochizuki, ‘’Japan’s Shifting Strategy Towards the Rise of China’’. 55 25 of China in Japan, and eventually had policy implications, as the US and Japan strengthened defense cooperation in late 1996. Despite temporary thaws in relations, these favorability ratings never rebounded, and in fact worsened even more. According to Michael Yahuda, sentiments worsened even further in the early 2000s as a result of Prime Minister Koizumi’s visits to the controversial Yasukuni shrine, as well as Japan’s revisionism regarding its war time past, represented by the issuing of educational textbooks downplaying Japanese war crimes. 57 The Chinese government responded strongly to this, and has demanded apologies and cessation of the Yasukuni visits, which in turn irritated the Japanese public. Surveys conducted by The Genro NPO and China Daily, showed a favorability rating of 33% in 2007, which steadily decreased to a mere 6.8% in 2014. 58 Pew Research showed a similar image, with a 29% rating in 2007, down to just 5% in 2013. 59 According to Genro NPO and China Daily, these poor ratings were highly influenced, amongst others, by the territorial dispute surrounding the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, and as a result, China’s perceived lack of respect for international law regarding this matter. 58% of respondents believed the territorial disputes to be the most important source of mistrust. Furthermore, China’s criticism of Japan’s attitude towards war crimes during the Second World war has been badly received as well, providing another major cause for negative sentiments. More specifically, 56% of respondents believed that ‘’China’s anti-Japanese education and criticism of Japan’s past acts, as well as Chinese media coverage’’ are the most important sources of friction regarding this issue.60 In other words, Japan has a very low sense of emotional attachment regarding China, and has been harboring deeply negative views of China since the 1989 Tiananmen incident. As indicated before, this worsened perception has eventually influenced policy, and it can be expected that Japan’s unfavorable views cause a more confrontational stance towards China. Norms and values in policy conduct To examine Japan’s norms and values regarding foreign policy, it is important to distinguish between issue areas such as security, economics and foreign aid. This is necessary, because different norms govern the policies in each realm. In the security and foreign realm, a culture of antimilitarism has been deeply ingrained in Japan since the Second World War. This feature has defined Japan’s security policies and has had profound effects on its world view. Besides anti-militarism, however, opinion polls have indicated that most Japanese favor a generally low-key foreign policy. Going further, Peter Katzenstein stated that the Japanese people were in favor of a foreign policy in which 57 Yahuda, ‘’Sino-Japanese Relations after the Cold War’’, pp. 44-45. http://www.genron-npo.net/en/pp/docs/10th_Japan-China_poll.pdf, accessed May 18 59 http://www.pewglobal.org/2013/07/18/chapter-3-attitudes-toward-china/, accessed May 18 60 http://www.genron-npo.net/en/pp/docs/10th_Japan-China_poll.pdf, pp. 26, accessed May 18 58 26 Japan was dependent on the US, rather than autonomous, and preferred passivity over assertiveness. 61 In addition, a diplomatic approach to world politics was desired, and there has generally not been much appetite for the buildup of a strong military. Strikingly, most Japanese have indicated that even in the case of invasion, they would not use military force. 62 In the economic realm, Japan has preferred economic autonomy through technological development since the Meiji restoration. First, it wished to modernize and equal or outcompete the West economically, and second it desired to reduce its dependence on foreign imports. To that end, it has developed domestic industries and joined the global trade system. To scale back oil and gas imports, for instance, Japan has developed nuclear facilities for its energy consumption.63 Katzenstein argues that these two desires stem from an old concern about isolation pertaining to Japan’s position as an island state. Japanese policymakers have always considered Japan vulnerable, and the outside world hostile to their interests. This vision reinforces a sense of victimhood, as Japan cannot trust foreign powers, and may fall victim to malicious intentions. As a result, Japan wants to rely as little as possible on other countries for its economic wellbeing. The concept of security is not merely related to military matters, but to its ability to develop technologies that achieve it. Expected Policy Strategies Generally, Japan's foreign policy culture can be described as traditionally anti-militaristic and low-key, albeit with a shift towards a more proactive stance on contributing to global commons such as peace, security and human development in recent years. The expected values for the dimensions listed above provide a number of predictions regarding Japan's China policy: 1) Japan's uncertain world views, and its vision of the world as complex with many security threats, especially in the Asia-Pacific, will cause it to play a more active role on the world stage, and bring much sough stability. This implies more contributions to peace and security, global threats such as terrorism, human security and climate change, and a more assertive stance on matters of regional security. This would mean that, if China is perceived to challenge regional security, Japan would take a tough stance and oppose China’s behavior.. 2) Japan's perceived national role involves both anti-militarism and contributions to peace and prosperity. In the policy realm, this would imply that Japan seeks to become a global stakeholder without applying military means. Thus, Japan can be expected to politically support efforts to achieve peace and prosperity by others, use diplomatic means, and contribute via development aid and financial contributions to multilateral organizations. 61 Peter Katzenstein, and Nobuo Okawara, ‘’Japan’s National Security: Structures, Norms and Policies’’, International Security, vol.17(4), 1993, pp. 100-102. 62 Katzenstein, and Okawara, ‘’Japan’s National Security: Structures, Norms and Policies’’, pp. 100-102. 63 Ibid, pp. 98-100. 27 3) As regards the national interest, peace and prosperity will like continue to guide Japan´s foreign policy strategies. Contributions to global security, and the improvement of economic and trade relationships are likely policy outcomes. When applied to China, Japan will conduct relations with the aim of achieving peace and stronger economic ties. This could forebode a China strategy that seeks peaceful relations and resolution of existing problems, while increasing trade and economic agreements. 4) As mentioned before, Japan´s identity as a peaceful nation is expected to cause an anti-militaristic policy. Regarding emotional attachment, Japan´s attachment to China is very low, and perceptions of China have been increasingly negative over the past decades. Feelings of affinity are very poor, and a sense of hostility has emerged. This would imply that Japan would not follow a friendly policy towards China, but always follow a peaceful path. This seems contradictory to the previous expectation concerning the national interest, however, the overarching search for peace and willingness to solve problems does not mean relations are subsequently friendly per se. A cold peace, or simple coexistence does not imply outright hostility or conflict, as Neorealism would predict. 5) In the domain of norms and values, Japan has developed norms of opposition to militarism and low key diplomacy in the foreign and security realm, and economic security and technological independence in the economic realm. For its China policy, this would imply that Japan would not conduct an assertive strategy, nor consider military means to be a viable option in solving potential conflicts with China. In addition, it would prefer not to become too dependent on China for its economic wellbeing and technological development. Chapter 6 Empirical Analysis: The Diplomatic Blue Books To test whether Japan’s China policy is influenced by its political culture, the next part will examine a selection of Japan’s policy strategies towards China, examine the presence of cultural factors and most importantly, test whether the predictions listed above will hold,. These documents consist of the yearly ‘Diplomatic Blue Books’ issued by the Japanese government and the 2013 National Security Strategy. 64 The Diplomatic Blue Books are annual reports on Japan’s foreign relations with regards to the world’s regions, issue areas such as international development aid, security policy, and economic relations. In this chapter, and the following chapter on the NSS, I first give a general overview and analysis of the documents in light of Duffield’s dimensions, subsequently test the expectations generated in the previous chapter, and list the results. 64 http://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/other/bluebook/, Diplomatic Blue Books 2005-2014, accessed June 2015 28 Diplomatic Blue Books 2005-2014 The Diplomatic Blue Books provide interesting insights with regards to China. The single most remarkable feature, drawn from comparisons of the Blue Books since 2005 is the increased focus on China, and concerns about security relations with that country. In the earlier years, until 2009-2010, the documents emphasized peaceful cooperation, economic relations, and mutual interests. After that time, however, the Blue Books go into much detail about collisions and political tensions surrounding the Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute. The more recent reports also include strong language about China’s unacceptable behavior. From approximately 2006 until 2010, the Japanese government expressed confidence in China’s role as a global stakeholder, whereas since 2010 the Japanese government has sharply condemned Chinese behavior, and has considered it a risk to peace and stability in the region. In addition, the documents continue to announce a more proactive role of Japan on the world stage to protect its national interests and contribute to peace and stability, while enhancing the alliance with the United States and building better relationships with countries in the region and multilateral organizations. Based on the documents, I have identified a trend towards a more active foreign and defense policy, and a clearer ‘role’ for Japan. Although Japan views itself as a peaceful nation, it increasingly deploys the SDF to stabilize conflict areas, and considers itself a global stakeholder responsible for contributing to global commons like security. This is legitimized by the experience of the war, which the 2007 Blue Book has described as a source of humility which drives Japanese efforts towards achieving world peace. Finally, on several occasions, the Blue Books have referred to peaceful, as well as universal norms and values undergirding Japan’s foreign policy. In the 2007, and 2012 Books, for instance, the government stated that stability and prosperity should be based on universal values, such as freedom, democracy, human rights, capitalism, and the rule of law. The precise findings for each segment in each year examined are listed in annex 1. Analysis Although the structure and outline of the Blue Books has varied over the past 10 years, several aspects have remained constant, and most measures of political culture can be clearly distinguished in each of them. All documents contain a general section with an overview of the general situation in international affairs that year, and contains world views as stipulated by Duffield. The national interest and the perceived national role are not defined or reiterated every year, but are nevertheless recurrent over an extended period of time. However, this could be the result of constant nature of these measures, and perhaps the government does not feel the need to reiterate it every year, as it is perceived to be a given. Policy behavior is recurrent, and linked very closely to the national interest or the stated goal of Japanese diplomacy in that year. The focus on norms, however, is 29 relatively small, and only occurred in 2007, 2010, and 2012, notably under the Abe administrations. This indicates that Japan’s focus on norms is still new, and not ingrained in the bureaucracy yet. World views Japan’s world view over the past 10 years has evolved slightly. In this regard, I will use the distinctions used in all Books between the view on global affairs, and the Asia-Pacific region specifically. In the early years of the Blue Books, attention was focused on terrorism and threats regarding nuclear proliferation. The Books expressed support for the US war on terror and concern about the proliferation of WMD. After that time, the documents did not focus on the global environment until 2008, when the global financial crisis, climate change, food prices and other nontraditional issues became of salience. In addition, especially, in the years following the outbreak of the crisis, all documents mentioned the rise of emerging powers and non-state actors, affecting the global distribution of power and altering the nature of security threats. The latter refers to new issues, such as (cyber)terrorism, and threats to global commons such as piracy and infringement on territorial rights. Finally, more emphasis was placed on regionalism and the prospect of global governance to deal with non-traditional cross-boundary issues. The documents devoted more attention to developments in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly the rise of China. In this regard, some very interesting and clear developments can be observed. In 2005, concerns were expressed about territorial disputes, but in later years, until 2010, a remarkably positive attitude arose over the course of relations with China. Much confidence was expressed in the prospect of conflict resolution, and Japan expected China to behave as a responsible player on the world stage. It was emphasized that cooperation in many issue areas was possible, and that Sino-Japanese relations reached an historic high in 2008 with the celebration of 30 years of diplomatic relations. In 2010, however, tensions around the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands escalated, and Japan insisted that Chinese vessels violated Japan’s territorial space. The security environment was characterized as increasingly ‘harsh’ and uncertain, and especially since 2012 Japan became much more critical of China, called its presence in Japan’s territorial waters illegal, and insisted it would react firmly to new transgressions. In addition, concerns about China’s military buildup were emphasized. Thus in recent years, Japan has become more concerned about its security, and China plays a major role in this. This uncertain environment and worries about the military buildup of a regional power would be typical of Neorealism as well, because it reflects the anarchic nature of international politics, and fears of a rising power. This characterization of the security environment is in accordance with Bergstrom’s observation that Japan views the world as complex and uncertain, and is aware of rising security threats. Nevertheless, it can be doubted whether Japan is not outspoken regarding the nature and rules of international relations, because Japan has consistently identified the world to have become more 30 complex, with more actors, but at the same time emphasized the importance of international law, open seas, peace, stability and the crucial role of multilateral organizations like the UN. Multilateralism, security regimes, alliances and international law have always featured prominently in Japan’s foreign policy, and in the past 20 years Japan wished to contribute more to global issues. Thus Japan has considered these international rules very important, and it seems hard to argue it has not, as Bergstrom stated, evaluated these rules. Its focus on rules would also pose challenges to Realist interpretations, because under this framework international law, if adhered to at all, would be superseded by national interests. National role and interests Japan’s perceived role and national interests were not articulated every year, but remained relatively constant over the years they were mentioned. From 2005 until 2008, the classical interests peace and prosperity were named yearly. In 2009, however, the focus shifted to territorial integrity in particular, as well as the security of Japanese abroad. In recent years, however, the national interest has not been expressly defined in the Blue Books. The national perception was mentioned less often, but its self-evaluation as a peaceful nation has recurred over the years. In 2014, Japan stated it did not only see itself as a peaceful nation, but also a contributor to peace, indicating that its national role has expanded to include a role as actor and stakeholder in issues of global security. Testing expectations In the face of an uncertain environment, it was expected that Japan would play a more active role on the world stage and respond to threats by contributing to peace and security. If China were to threaten regional security, Japan would take an active and stalwart stance. The findings in the Blue Books thus not only match the foreseen worldview, but also policy implications. As predicted, Japan would play a more prominent role on the world stage and contribute to multilateral organizations. As a result of the perceived insecurity, it has sought to strengthen its alliance with the US, participated in security forums such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, and sought to partake in UN peacekeeping operations. Its language on China has toughened remarkably in recent years, following a period of optimism and faith in cooperating to achieve ‘peace and stability’. Tensions increased during 2009 and 2010, and Japan vowed to respond vigorously to the maritime presence of China in its territorial waters. This development would fit Neorealist predictions about the changing balance of power, and China aiming to dominate the East China Sea, but the observation that relations were good between 2005 and 2009 indicates that China’s rise and military buildup alone was not sufficient reason for deteriorating relations. Despite recent tensions, Japan has shown a commitment to build stable and peaceful relations, which fits the theoretical predictions. 31 Regarding Japan’s perceived national role, its peaceful nature and zeal to contribute to peace and global security has been reiterated throughout the years. This matches expectations that Japan would seek to contribute to global commons in a peaceful manner. It should be noted, however, that Japan has not clearly elaborated under which circumstances military force would be applied in order to achieve these goals. Therefore, the overall strategy of peaceful contributions is seen in empirics, but the specifics are not clearly visible. Nevertheless, in the spirit of this peaceful role, Japan has contributed to UN peacekeeping operations, but did not engage in combat operations. Thus, it could be stated that this approach would epitomize the concept of ‘peaceful contributions’. In the realm of the national interest, the policy outcomes of the aims of peace and prosperity are recognizable as well, but results are more mixed. In addition to the desire to contribute to security, Japan has stated numerous times that economic diplomacy and the forging of new trade partnerships is a core foreign policy. In its relationship with China, Japan has praised the economic opportunities accompanying its rise, and always sought to develop economic ties. This would, however, not match Japan’s predicted aim of trying to reduce its economic dependence on foreign partners, including China. Regarding security relations with China, it was expected that Japan would always conduct these in a peaceful manner and be willing to resolve outstanding disputes. Indeed, in 2008 the Blue Book stated that Japan and China would aim to achieve peace and stability, however, in recent years this language changed considerably, and Japan condemned Chinese policy regarding the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. The documents did not clearly mention the use of force by Japan’s SDF in this manner, nor specify the conditions under which Japan would defend its sovereignty by force. Japan’s response is referred to as ‘firm but calm’, but does not condone violent means. Japan prefers not to use the threat of force, but the language of the documents does not expressly reject it either. It can be stated that Japan does not prefer the use of force, and therefore puts effort into resolving this dispute peacefully. As the possibility is not ruled out, this expectation is not as strongly met by empirics as the previous dimensions. Japan’s weak emotional attachment to China, combined with its peaceful identity would predict a deterioration of relations, but a similar proclivity to peace. Indeed, relations have worsened in recent years, and the Japanese government has not resorted to a militarized policy approach. The limitation of this analysis, however, is that the deterioration took place within the context of the Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute. The deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations in recent years cannot be readily attributed to a negative view of China in Japan. Instead the territorial dispute and perceived assertive Chinese challenges to Japan’s territory seem to be a major catalyst, as the language towards China was much friendlier in the years before the escalation of the dispute in 2010. Therefore, the explanation for the worsening of relations is more systemic in nature, and would reflect Neorealist predictions because China and Japan are embroiled in a dispute over territorial possessions and dominance in strategic waters. In this case, political culture is a relevant variable insofar as the policy 32 strategy towards this dispute is not expressly militaristic. Therefore, the explanation for severe Japanese concerns about China are not rooted in political culture, but an external conflict. In the realm of norms and values of policy conduct, political culture seems to be partially relevant, particularly in the strategic domain. In its conduct of foreign relations, Japan was expected to pursue an anti-militaristic and low-key foreign policy, while pursuing economic independence. Regarding China, these expectations have been met because Japan has responded vigorously in its territorial disputes, but refrained from escalating the situation and applying military means. It also developed an unprecedented degree of interdependence in the economic sphere, which contradicts Japan’s aim of relying less on possibly hostile foreign powers, including China. In recent years, Japan has attached value to universal values guiding its foreign policy, which adds a new element to existing theory about its foreign policy norms. These universal values are not directly applied in relations with China, but seem to increasingly guide its overall foreign policy directions. To summarize, the Diplomatic Blue Books indicate that cultural predictions regarding its national role, norms and values have been correct, and observed in the material, whereas evidence regarding its emotional attachment, national interest and world views has been more ambivalent, because external factors, such as territorial conflicts and China’s military prowess play a role as well. Regarding these dimensions, Japan’s anti-militarism and peaceful conduct of international relations have been key policy priorities, and are visible in the domain of norms and values, national role, and the national interest. In addition, its national role combining peaceful nature and a willingness to be a responsible global partner, especially in the realm of peacekeeping are completely visible in the Blue Books. In the realm of world views, the results are ambivalent because Japan is worried about Chinese behavior, and seeks to contribute to global security. Regarding national interest, the results are not as clear cut, but anti-militarist approaches nevertheless dominate, as Japan has been unwilling to rearm or show force in its disputes with China. Chapter 7 Empirical Analysis: The 2013 National Security Strategy In this section, I summarize the content of 2013 National Security Strategy in light of Duffield’s dimensions, and test the expectations regarding China policy in light of these findings. In 2013, the Abe government for the first time adopted a comprehensive National Security Strategy, and erected a National Security Council. 65 This move was unprecedented, and signaled a new commitment towards enhancing threat assessment, creating a framework for meeting security challenges, and concrete measures towards enhancing Japan's defense capabilities. It is an important document because it 65 http://www.cas.go.jp/jp/siryou/131217anzenhoshou/nss-e.pdf, 2013 Japan National Security Strategy, accessed June 2015 33 transcends the domains of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defense, and calls for a broader government strategy towards dealing with security threats. Indeed, the National Security Council is a centralized organ, consisting of the PM, the PM chief secretary, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Minister of Defense. 66 The timing of the publication of the NSS has led to speculation about its 'true' target or direct cause. Many observers have concluded that this document is a direct response to increased tensions with China, starting in 2010, about the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Berkshire Miller, on the other hand, argued that the strategy is broader one, dealing with other threats as well, including but not limited to North Korea, WMD, piracy, and climate change. 67It is clear however, that this document does indeed refer to security questions about China, and that the territorial dispute has become a source of great concern. Japan’s Role and Interests The 2013 NSS starts off with a description of Japan’s role and national interests. It defines Japan as a ‘peace-loving’ nation and one with a ‘rich culture, traditions, and universal values such as human rights, democracy and freedom’. It describes Japan as a major player on the world stage, both economically and politically. It also states that ‘’At the same time, surrounded by an increasingly severe security environment and confronted by complex and grave national security challenges, it has become indispensable for Japan to make more proactive efforts in line with the principle of international cooperation’’. To carry out these proactive efforts, Japan has expressly dubbed itself a ‘Proactive Contributor to Peace’ under the current Abe administration. This is an important move, because it shows that Japan wants to uphold its identity as a peaceful nation, and strive towards peace, whereas at the same time, it feels it should commit and contribute more to this goal, implying it saw its previous role as too passive. Its national interests are defined as the maintenance of Japan’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, as well as its prosperity. This is similar to those articulated in the Diplomatic Blue Books in previous years, however, the NSS also considers an ‘international order based on liberal values’ to be a core interest. This is a change from previous years. The global and regional security situation As mentioned, the NSS expressed concern about the global environment, and called it ‘severe’, a relatively strong term that indicates Japan is more worried than in the past. Generally, it considers the world to be full of unstable factors and risks to the status quo. First, it acknowledges that the world is increasingly multipolar, with states like China and India altering the balance of power that used to be in favor of the United States. Second, it mentions the rise of non-state actors, both NGOs but also transnational crime and terrorist organizations which are a threat to security. Third, Japan is concerned about threats to global commons, such as open seas and access to international waterways. This is a 66 67 http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/how-will-japans-new-nsc-work/, accessed June 4, 2015 Ibid, accessed June 4, 2015 34 reference to both piracy and criminal activity, but also actions by states that hamper access to waters or infringe on territories. The final concern seems to be a veiled concern about Chinese assertiveness and maritime presence in the East and South China Seas. According to the NSS, the security environment in the Asia-Pacific is particularly volatile. It expresses concern over so called ‘gray zones’, areas with territorial disputes, in which it is not clear to whom it belongs. These gray zones are referred as zones where there is neither ‘peace’ nor ‘conflict’. These zones refer to the East and South China Seas, where China has territorial disputes with neighboring states. The strategy then explicitly names China as a source of concern, and condemns actions taken by the Chinese government. It considers the presence of Chinese naval and fishing vessels to be ‘intrusions’ in Japanese territorial waters, and judges Chinese trespassing to be contrary to international law. In addition, it finds Chinese military expenditure ‘not transparent’, and believes the combination of unilateral action and China’s military buildup to be worrying. Norms Nevertheless, these policies, and the strategy as a whole, also seem to be influenced by normative considerations that in previous years were not very strongly articulated. Japan has strongly emphasized both the importance of peace and responsibilities to contribute to global stability, security and development. Like the Diplomatic Blue Books, universal values are also figuring more prominently in Japan’s foreign policy, and therefore it seems that Japan’s strategy is not solely based on security concerns or national interests. The NSS devotes considerable attention to these issues, and it seems Japanese foreign policy is more than self-serving. As stated, Japan seeks to proactively contribute to peace, but it seeks to do so on the basis of ‘universal values and international cooperation’. In addition, Japan seeks to strengthen the rule of law, and states: ‘’Japan will continue to faithfully comply with international law as a guardian of the rule of law. In addition, in order to establish the rule of law in the international community, Japan will participate proactively in international rule making from the planning stage, so that Japans principles and positions based on fairness, transparency and reciprocity are duly reflected.’’ ‘’Strengthening cooperation based on universal values to resolve global issues. Japan will endeavor to share universal value s and reinforce an open international economic system, which form the basis of peace, stability and prosperity of the international community. At the same time, Japan will advance the following measures towards the resolution of development issues and global issues that could hinder peace and stability of the international community, such as poverty, energy issues, widening disparity, climate change, natural disasters, and food related issues through the active and strategic utilization of ODA.’’ ‘’Through a partnership with countries with which Japan shares universal values, such as freedom, democracy, respect for fundamental human rights including women’s rights, and the rule of law, Japan will conduct diplomacy that contributes to addressing global issues.’’ 35 It becomes clear that Japan has a new focus on universal norms and values and sees international law as a prime instrument to maintain the preferred global order and rule of law. In addition, it is also notable that in a document relating to security, Japan pays attention to development, and considers it a value to contribute to this. Nevertheless, it also recognizes that global problems such as climate change, hunger, poverty and development issues, often referred to as questions of human security, could be threats to global security as well. Finally, it is emphasized that Japan will seek partners based on common values to address these issues. This is a very remarkable aspect, because it means that Japan is not prepared to engage with simply any country, or any state that provides cool benefits, but is actively concerned with their norms and values. This is also reflected in the assessment of Japan’s most partners, as the NSS lists the US, South Korea and Australia and Europe as Japan’s most important partners based on shared values and strategic interests. Testing Expectations The 2013 NSS contains a remarkable number of measures of political culture as identified by Duffield. The document very clearly outlines Japan’s perceived role, its national interests, world view, policy selection and a strong focus on normative aspects. The outline is sorted in a way that is easy to identify categories, and the values for each one of them. To weigh the importance of political culture and Realism in the NSS, it is important to examine the findings listed above, and compare it with the expectations raised by secondary literature. Like the Diplomatic Blue Book, the NSS describes the security environment as severe, and is concerned about Chinese actions in the East and South China Seas. In addition, it expresses concern about China’s intransparent military buildup. Based on this characterization, it can be said that Bergstrom correctly noted Japan’s view of the world as uncertain, complex, and full of threats, especially on the regional level. However, the NSS has not been silent about the importance of international law and global rules, and considers these to be the cornerstone of international politics. Japanese leaders have become more outspoken regarding the salience of these issues, especially as concerns about incursions into Japanese territories have increased the salience of international rules regarding these issues. As a result, Japan seeks to contribute more to the maintenance of these rules. Moreover, the NSS states that Japan would welcome and cooperate with a China that is committed to the maintenance of these rules. Therefore, Bergstrom is only partly right, and underestimated Japan’s commitment to this order. These security concerns lead to the articulation of three key policies that form the security strategy of Japan, and that directly relate to Japan’s analysis of the global and regional security situation, and maintenance of the national interests. First, Japan seeks to ‘strengthen its deterrence to deal with maintaining its sovereignty and territorial integrity’. Second, it seeks to’ strengthen the US-Japan alliance and partnerships in the region’. Third, it aims to improve global security environment by strengthening the order and play leading role in settling disputes’. From these 36 policy goals, it becomes clear that Japan seeks to expand its SDF, and seek more security through its alliance with the US and contributing to a stable world order. In other words, Japan is concerned and seeks to protect itself against contingencies resulting from an uncertain security environment. This finding is in line with the prediction that Japan would play a more assertive role as a global stakeholder in peace and security, but could also reflect a Neorealist response to the anarchic world system and possible threats. Regarding Japan’s national role, the 2013 NSS, as expected, clearly views Japan as a nation with potential to shape its environment and become an important stakeholder in global affairs. Yet it is also considered a peaceful nation, and the strategy combines the two in a policy strategy dubbed ‘proactive contributor to peace’. In other words, Japan will seek to contribute to security, but will not revert to militarism to ensure this. However, it should be mentioned that the NSS calls for a strong increase in defense spending to ensure Japan’s security in an uncertain environment. This poses challenges to both the culturalist and Realist explanation regarding peace, because Japan’s emphasis on its peaceful nature, and contributions to peacekeeping missions and multilateral organizations are contrary to the Realist worldview, whereas increased defense spending runs counter to its antimilitaristic culture. The policies to ‘proactively contribute to peace’ are defined as strengthening Japan’s defense capability, the alliance with the US, and international order. The first two are relatively concrete, as defense spending and the development of more advanced weapons systems, some jointly with the US are prioritized. It is not quite clear, however, how Japan seeks to strengthen the international order, and the NSS strategy does not clearly define in what instances Japan will contribute to global commons. From a Neorealist perspective, these findings are highly ambivalent, because proactive contributions to peace, and leaving security responsibilities to the US would match Neorealism, but the aim of strengthening the international order and global commons is less fitting, as this involves international rules and law. Japan’s national interest is centered around the preservation of its territorial integrity and sovereignty, as well as the strive towards prosperity. These definitions only partly match Bergstrom’s findings, as he indicated that Japan’s national interests concern ‘peace, security, recognition, and prosperity’. The NSS does not expressly refer to peace, security and recognition, and only contains prosperity. It can be said that peace and security are broad terms that still capture Japan’s goals, and are highly related to territorial integrity and sovereignty, because the goal of any nation is to ensure security, avoid war and protect its border. The wording in the NSS, however, is markedly different because the references to territorial integrity point to concerns about intrusions into Japanese territory and violation of its borders. This means that according to the strategy, real threats have materialized, overshadowing broad principles like peace and security. The identification of peace and prosperity as core national interests would also match Neorealism, because its focus on security and accumulation of wealth are the most important goals of any state according to that theory. The concerns about 37 territorial integrity, however, have not put to rest its peaceful approach regarding China, as Japan still aimed at achieving ‘’peace, stability and prosperity’’ in the region. This would fit the earlier predictions. Japan’s expected unfriendly policy towards China, based on low emotional attachment is partly visible, as the documents indicate a clear sense of mistrust towards China’s intentions, while on the other hand, the NSS calls for a stable working relationship. The NSS states Japan will take a firm stance regarding the territorial dispute with China. At the same time, this tough stance is somewhat mediated by proposals to continue working on a Mutually Beneficial Relationship, defense cooperation, and encouragement of China to play a ‘responsible role’. Thus Japan’s attitude is somewhat unfriendly, but also constructive, matching the prediction that Japan nevertheless seeks stable and peaceful relations. As stated before, it is difficult to translate the ‘firm but calm’ approach towards the territorial dispute into an aggressive or militarized strategy. When examining the norms concerning economic autonomy and an anti-militarist and passive foreign policy, it is clear these norms are only partly visible. As this document focuses on security and defense, it neglects economic issues, and therefore the autonomy aspect is not identifiable. In the security realm, however, the strategy questions the norms mentioned above because it proclaimed several new policies that marked Japan’s desire to be a proactive contributor to peace, which is contrary to the expectations of a passive and low key foreign policy. More specifically, its proclamation of policies to enhance the military cooperation with the US, increased defense spending, strengthened security cooperation with countries like South Korea and Australia, and more contributions to security under UN auspices mark a decidedly more assertive foreign policy. Moreover, these strategies seem to be directly related to China, as its buildup and behavior in the East China Sea are considered to be part of a larger set of security threats to Japan. The aforementioned policies are thus for a large part related to its evaluation of China, and much more assertive than predicted. Although it is unclear whether these enhanced military options would be directly used in its dispute with China, it certainly is part of a broader strategy to gain leverage over potential adversaries. Finally, it should be noted that the NSS includes a large section on norms not predicted by secondary literature, but nevertheless manifested in both the NSS and Diplomatic Blue Books. The NSS states that Japan seeks to contribute to peace by following the principles of universal values and international cooperation. The rule of law in the international system is considered crucial to stability, and to that end, Japan views international law as the most important way to achieve this. It is noteworthy that Japan has adopted Western norms and values as basic principles undergirding its foreign policy. Although not predicted, this result indicates new norms continue to emerge and affect Japan’s political culture in the foreign policy domain. 38 Summarized, the expectations regarding political culture are reflected in Japan’s antimilitarist and internationalist national role and self-perception, and identity and emotional attachment. With regards to emotional attachment, Japan has demonstrated a cold attitude towards China, but refrained from applying military means to respond to its rise. In addition, within the domain of the national interest, Japan showed significant concerns about its territorial integrity as a result of China’s actions, but largely maintained its emphasis on peaceful relations and stable interactions with China, fitting the policy predictions. In the realm of norms and values, the evidence is more mixed, because Japan’s emphasis on its peaceful nature does not rhyme with its recent increases in defense spending, although Japan’s defense expenditure over the past two decades has been stable. In addition, Japan has increasingly valued universal norms, such as democracy, human rights and rule of law. These do not reflect Neorealist assertions, resulting in mixed findings. Regarding Japan’s world views, it views the regional environment as insecure and unstable, partly as a result of China’s behavior. This would match a Neorealist vision, but Japan has also emphasized the important of international rules, and stated it would welcome and encourage China to maintain them. Apparently Japan has normative concerns about international rules, that do not match with Neorealist predictions. Chapter 8 Conclusion and discussion In this thesis, I have attempted to answer the question whether political culture is a significant determinant of Japan’s foreign policy towards China. In order to measure this concept in the realm of foreign policy, I applied a framework devised by Duffield to identify the main dimensions of the way political culture affects foreign policy. These can be summarized as world views, the national role and self-perception, identity and emotional attachment, the formulation of the national interest, policy conduct, and the norms and values undergirding it. By using secondary literature, I examined the values for each category in Japan’s foreign policy, and subsequently generated policy predictions that can be expected based on the findings. In the interest of comprehensiveness I formulated predictions for most categories to grasp the importance of all aspects of political culture. Finally, I used empirical material consisting of Japanese foreign policy documents to test the predictions and conclude whether political culture indeed highly shapes Japan’s China policy, or whether Neorealist elements are more relevant. The empirical materials examined in this thesis indicate that political culture guides Japan’s foreign strategies, because I often observed the policy implications of Duffield’s variables in the documents. However, political culture by itself does not explain all policies, and instead I posit that both political culture and Neorealism have determined Japan’s China strategies. Broadly speaking, the policy implications of Japan’s national role and perception, identity, and low emotional attachment to China strongly reflect cultural values that deviate from Neorealist predictions. In the dimensions of 39 norms, world views, and the national interest the evidence is more mixed, indicating that both cultural and structural dimensions are at play. With regards to some aspects, notably Japan’s policies to strengthen its defense, enhance the alliance with the US and seek strategic and military cooperation with regional partners, political culture seems to be of smaller influence than Neorealism. It seems difficult to argue political culture is an all determining factor in explaining foreign policy, but it is nonetheless a present factor that explains significant aspects of Japan’s China policy, and security policy more general. Japan’s China policy is ambivalent, and reflects strategic concerns about China’s growing might, as well as anti-militarist norms preventing it from taking a militarized approach to prevent China from dominating the region. Japan has been outspoken in condemning China’s actions, but refused to indicate where it would draw the line and apply military means to resolve conflicts. In addition, Japan has been much more cooperative than Realism would expect. Not only have economic and trade ties blossomed in the past few decades, Japan has actively encouraged China to be involved in regional institutions and rule making. Despite cold relations, Japan has indicated to China it would be prepared to work on a ‘Mutually Beneficial Relationship’. In other words, Neorealism can explain to a large degree how the changing balance of power has created strategic tensions between the two countries, but fails to explain several key aspects of Japan’s policy. To be sure, Japan has adopted a tough stance towards China’s territorials claims and adopted a change in thinking regarding security by adopting a National Security Strategy, ending the spending freeze on defense, and enhancing the alliance with the US. However, Japan’s continuing emphasis on its peaceful role, and failure to significantly rearm, abolish Article 9, challenge China militarily or seek alliances in the region indicate Japan has not followed Neorealist policy predictions, and are better explained through political culture. Limitations and implications for further research As mentioned earlier, political culture is an important explanation, but nevertheless only one, and this thesis certainly does not argue that mainstream IR theories or other frameworks derived from social sciences or other fields are irrelevant. Analytically, Duffield’s framework merely focuses on the domain of foreign and security strategies. The domestic, local, or individual levels of analysis are left out, while these may provide important insights on the process of policy making in general. Furthermore, Constructivist scholars would point out that realist foreign policy may be the result of cultural attitudes towards the world, indicating that certain visions of the world are socially constructed within the context of certain cultures. It is also possible that there is an interaction between cultural beliefs and Realist aspects, implying that structural factors may shape cultures and vice versa. This research takes Neorealism and political culture as separate domains, whereas some foreign policy cultures may be Neorealist in nature. Instead of examining this combination, I argued 40 how Japan’s political culture is different from Neorealism, and focused on explaining how, amongst other factors, anti-militarism defied numerous Neorealist expectations. These concerns could prompt a research agenda which focuses on Constructivism, and investigates how norms and (perceived) structural factors are interconnected. An example of this could be an investigation of the role of nationalism and Realism, and how Realist concerns exacerbate nationalist sentiments, which in turns leads to changes in structural factors. Nevertheless, like Duffield’s conclusion in his research on Germany, this thesis shows that Japan’s political culture is influential, and poses challenges to mainstream IR theories. It is imperative to transcend classical theoretical paradigms, and look at factors beyond the scope of the IR field that shape politics and foreign strategies. 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North Korea poses threat. China sometimes infringes on Japan’s territorial rights 2006 Japan and China have Peace and prosperity Nation Defense differences, but they striving for policy and US should not stand in the way peace. alliance, of cooperation. The East ‘Thought’ cooperation China Sea should be a ‘Sea leader for world of Cooperation’ instead of thinking prosperity, a ‘Sea of Confrontation’. about construction solving of an common internationally problems peaceful environment 2007 No clear world view, Arch of except emphasizing threat freedom and North Korea, but proposal prosperity of ‘Arc of Freedom’ based on concept universal values 2008 Cooperation with China Welfare of Japanese possible in many new people, peace and fields, and joint efforts prosperity toward peace and stability. 30 years of diplomatic relations celebrated 2009 Numerous global Territorial integrity, Ensure challenges, including protect lives of Japan’s terrorism, climate change, Japanese citizens, national WMD, food prices, and the prosperity and interests, but global financial crisis. development Japan’s policy Regarding China, a historic should also year with many state visits, serve the 44 2010 relations progressed honor and steadily. Some concerns prestige of the about military transparency nation, and and accordance with instill pride in international rules. the people. Global issues have led to More active the emergence of global foreign governance like the G8 and policy, G20. In addition, BRICS deepening of change balance of power. US-Japan There are new frameworks alliance. for cooperation but at the Proactive same time diversified diplomacy, threats to security. China’s goal of East development is an Asian opportunity for all and Community. Japan expects more More UN responsible role of China. PKO Japan wishes to resolve participation. outstanding issues. Stimulate Multilateralism understanding of Japan abroad. 2011 2012 Shift in balance of power Deepen US- by rise of emerging Japan alliance countries and non-state and actors. Security partnerships environment in East Asia in the region. ‘harsh and uncertain’, both Advance traditional and non- economic traditional threats. diplomacy, Tensions over collisions address global with Chinese vessels that issues and intruded in Japanese contribute to waters, but improvement international after a summit. rule-making. Increasing globalization Japan Minimize and interdependence, and should risks, diversification of actors. overcome maximize inward- opportunities looking for growth, tendency stability and prosperity based on democratic values and human security 45 2013 Security environment Japan will surrounding Japan pursue becoming more severe, and policies that strained in the Asia-Pacific will protect due to increased military Japan from spending by all states and crises and tensions over maritime threats to issues. It is important to peace and seek a Mutually Beneficial stability to the Relationship with China, world and but good relations are Japan, as well impaired by Chinese as peace and intrusions in Japanese prosperity. 3 territorial waters, and the pillars: Airspace Identification Strengthen Zone. Senkaku Islands are alliance with indisputable part of Japan. US, deepen cooperative partnerships, and enhance economic diplomacy 2014 Change in balance of Japan is a Policies in Japan followed power due to economic peace- light of path of a growth of emerging loving ‘proactive peaceful countries. Greater diversity nation and a contributor to nation. Itwants and complexity of risks, proactive peace’ to uphold risks to global commons contributor perception. 3 universal and human security. Severe to peace pillars remain values such as security environment in based on the the same, but freedom, Asia as a result of North principle of Japan pursues democracy, Korea’s missile international a ‘strategic human rights, development and China’s cooperation. foreign rule of law, military buildup and policy’ that and pursuing attempts to change the takes a world peace territorial status quo. ‘panoramic and prosperity. perspective’, upholding universal values such as freedom, democracy, human rights, rule of law and capitalism. 46 47
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