Thayer Consultancy
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Background Briefing:
The Future of the US-Philippines
Mutual Defense Treaty
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 23, 2016
[client name deleted]
What is your assessment on the future of the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty
in light of President Duterte’s recent anti-alliance comments?
ASSESSMENT: The US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) has a final clause
giving a one year limit for one party to notify the other that it wishes to terminate the
agreement. President Duterte's comments so far have been just that - off the cuff
remarks without any follow up. Assistant Secretary of State Danny Russel is in Manila
at the moment to seek clarification of Duterte's remarks. Duterte himself has played
around with words implying that "separation" from the United States is not the same
as a divorce. The MDT has been through tough times before as in 1991-92 when the
Philippines Congress voted not to renew US leases on Subic Bay and Clark Airfield. The
MDT went into abeyance until it was revived under President Aquino.
What is at risk is the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) that allows
for the rotational presence of US forces at five Filipino bases. If this were cancelled it
would deny the US the advantage of a geographic presence near to the Spratly Islands
and the South China Sea. It is my assessment that the stationing of Warthog ground
attack aircraft and the later stationing of the Growler electronic warfare aircraft in the
Philippines, coupled with US Navy destroyer patrols and exercises by two US carrier
groups (off the east coast of the Philippines) deterred China from taking "decisive and
provocative action" at Scarborough Shoal in the aftermath of the Award by the Arbitral
Tribunal. The expression "decisive and provocative action" was attributed to leaked
Australian assessments provided by intelligence and analytic agencies earlier in the
year. The loss of a US rotational presence in the Philippines, and the cancellation of
future joint military exercises, will not prevent the US Navy from maintaining a
presence in the South China Sea. The US Navy is fully capable of operating without
access to the Philippines. Duterte is about to make a trip to Japan and this will be a
bell weather of his intentions. He may seek further cooperation with Japan to balance
China. Duterte's "pivot" to China is not a foregone conclusion in terms of a military
relationship.
There is little the Philippines can bring to the table. And China, which may be relishing
this moment, is undoubtedly thinking hard about whether to put all its eggs in
Duterte's basket. In other words, the slightest mishap in bilateral relations could see
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Duterte pivoting in another direction. Finally, China will have to calculate whether
President Duterte will last his six years in office and whether the Philippines will
remain stable.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “The Future of the US-Philippines Mutual
Defense Treaty,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 23, 2016. All
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.