Market Update:
Winston Churchill Memorabilia
Handwritten Letters
•
Personal Memorabilia
• Signed Photos
Background:
Voted “Best Briton” by the public in a BBC poll in 2002, and the first
British statesman to be given a state funeral in the 20th century,
Winston Churchill is a man for the ages.
The prime minister’s role in ensuring that Britain defeated Hitler
and the Nazis in the second World War cannot be overestimated.
Churchill’s steadfast resolve during the war, rousing speeches and
striking appearance ensure that he will continue to be warmly remembered for decades and centuries to come, around the world.
This is excellent news for investors looking for long-term gains from
the Winston Churchill memorabilia sector.
What’s new?
09 February 2012
Recommendation:
BUY
Key changes:
• 7.82% pa
Churchill autographs 2000 / 2011
•
£17,480
•
2015 Anniversary
Paid for a set of Churchill’s dentures
in 2010
50 years since Churchill’s death will
boost demand for his memorabilia
Performance of Churchill autographs
between 2000-11:
A sofa said to have once been owned by Churchill sold for £7,500
($11,860) at a UK sale in 2009, 9,275% up on its £80 pre-sale valuation.
A half-finished Churchill cigar sold for £4,500 ($6,910) in a UK sale
in 2010.
The war medals of CR Roberts, who saved Winston Churchill’s life
in the Boer War, sold for £38,400 ($60,730) at a UK auction in 2010.
Source: PFC40 Autograph Index
A set of Churchill’s dentures made £17,480 ($26,830) at Bonhams in
2010, 249.6% above their £5,000 ($7,670) estimate.
An unpublished Churchill speech from 1959, signed by Churchill,
made £5,760 ($9,120) at Bonhams in March 2011.
The Paul Fraser Collectibles View:
The growing value of Churchill’s memorabilia over the past years provides us with considerable optimism for the long-term future of the
market.
We are particularly heartened by the recent sale of his cigars and
Adrian Roose (Analyst)
+ 44 (0) 117 933 9503
[email protected]
www.paulfrasercollectibles.com
Page 1 • Winston Churchill Memorabilia Market Update • 09 February 2012
Market Update:
dentures, which indicate that the most unique, personal items are in
great demand.
Likewise, the strong growth of Churchill’s signed photos since 2000,
as noted by the PFC40 Autograph Index, is hugely encouraging. They
grew 7.82% pa in value between 2000 and 2011, from £2,600 ($4,000)
to £5,950 ($9,160). Churchill handwritten notes are also much-sought
after and are exceedingly rare – they are seldom found at auction.
With a growing number of global collectors expected to enter the market in 2015, with the 50th anniversary of Churchill’s passing, and a finite
number of items available, we believe prices will rise over the coming
years.
We recommend Winston Churchill memorabilia as a BUY.
Demographics behind the market:
The Churchill memorabilia market received a kick-start when a million-page archive of his papers, photographs and personal items were
bought with £12.5m of lottery funding by the British government in
1995. The value is a 22.28% pa increase on the £100,000 price the British government refused to pay for the papers in 1971. The archive includes Churchill’s own copy of his “Finest Hour” speech from the second
world war.
Winston Churchill handwritten letter
The documents, which are housed at Cambridge’s Churchill Archives
Centre, are now believed to be worth in the region of £50m. The archive
will be able to be viewed online from 2012 for a small fee.
London’s Churchill War Rooms, from where Churchill commanded operations during the secondWorld War, receives more than 300,000 visitors annually. It incorporates the Churchill Museum, which details the
life of Churchill. A suite of rooms used by Churchill and his family were
the subject of a £7.5m restoration in 2003.
Churchill’s ancestral home, Chartwell in Kent, is also a popular tourist
attraction, receiving more than 188,000 visitors in 2010. A new display
of 40 personal items, never before seen in public, will go on show this
year. They include Churchill’s passport, his pet poodle’s bowl and a dictation machine.
A number of major films and television programmes have been produced in recent years regarding Churchill, including the well- received
2009 made-for-US-television film Into the Storm.
These factors all indicate that the public’s fascination in Churchill and
his collectibles, particularly those from the second World War, remains
high. This is excellent news for those looking to invest in his memorabilia.
Page 2 • Winston Churchill Memorabilia Market Update • 09 February 2012
FOR SALE: £4,950
For further reports in this
series please email
[email protected]
www.paulfrasercollectibles.com
Market Update:
Market Performance Catalyst:
We strongly expect the 50th anniversary of Churchill’s death, in 2015,
to spark increased appreciation of his life, and heighten demand for
his collectibles. The date will coincide with the 70th anniversary of the
end of the second World War, which will further ensure that Churchill
remains prominent in the public’s mind.
Plans are underway to establish America’s first research centre devoted to Churchill, at George Washington University in Washington,
D.C. The National Churchill Library and Center is expected to open
between 2013 and 2015, and will help enhance Churchill’s profile
considerably. “Americans are especially devoted Churchillians,” commented Lee Pollock, the executive director of the Churchill Centre,
an organisation dedicated to keeping Churchill’s memory alive. The
Churchill Centre has provided $8m for the project. Churchill is “probably the most collectible and collected statesman”, Pollock added.
Summary:
Sales of Churchill memorabilia are performing well. We have seen:
•
•
•
Signed photos up 7.82% since 2000
£17,480 for his dentures
£4,500 for a half-finished cigar
The strong figures, Churchill’s enduring popularity in the UK and
around the world, and the approaching 50th anniversary of his passing, should ensure the continued growth of the Churchill memorabilia
market. We suggest swift action.
£12.5m
Paid for Winston Churchill’s
personal archive of letters,
photographs and effects in 1995
Key reasons to invest:
• The current low interest environment represents a real
opportunity to build a valuable collection for long term value
• Many alternative investments are classified as ‘wasting assets’
and do not come into inheritance or Capital Gains Tax
calculations
• Unique collectibles have historically been considered ‘safe
havens’ and have a low correlation with traditional financial investments
• World record prices are being achieved despite the recession
• There are estimated to be 200m serious collectors worldwide
underpinning prices
Page 3 • Winston Churchill Memorabilia Market Update • 09 February 2012
For further reports in this
series please email
[email protected]
www.paulfrasercollectibles.com
Market Update:
• The population of the BRIC countries is expected to double
in the next 40 years, adding significantly to the number of
collectors
• The Baby Boomer generation is making its way through the
system and is now responsible for 80% of the world’s wealth
• Baby Boomers are living longer than previous generations,
with a higher level of disposable income, and with time on
their hands to pursue collecting in a serious way
• Many Institutional Funds have been created in collectibles
with many more waiting in the wings. These funds will add
significantly to the pressure on prices and to a shortage of
unique pieces on the market
• Collectibles as part of your overall portfolio give you greater
control over allocating and preserving your wealth, and the
ability to manage the process yourself, giving you confidence
where it has been lost in the bigger financial product areas
Key facts:
•
7.82% pa growth of Churchill
autographs since 2000
•
Growing middle class worldwide with high levels of
disposable income
•
2015 anniversary of death
•
Historic legacy
About Paul Fraser Collectibles:
Paul Fraser Collectibles is recognised as one of the world’s leading
boutique providers of investment grade collectibles.
Our company specialises in historical manuscripts, autographs, memorabilia, rare coins, postage stamps, art, first edition books, classic
cars, fine wine and military medals.
We also offer a unique, free worldwide news service with subscribers
in 212 countries, including a loyal following of Financial Advisers and
Wealth Managers.
Paul Fraser Collectibles also boasts an expert panel, with more than
250 years’ experience and $750m of sales to its name.
Our current inventory includes Winston Churchill handwritten signed
letters, Henry VIII signed documents and an original Declaration of
Independence.
Many items qualify for our unique 120% guarantee.
For full details on our services, and for other free reports in this
series, please contact us at:
[email protected]
+44 (0) 117 933 9503
This document is non-independent investment research and a marketing communication.
Page 4 • Winston Churchill Memorabilia Market Update • 09 February 2012
For further reports in this
series please email
[email protected]
www.paulfrasercollectibles.com