ECONOMIC REPORTS
AND OUTLOOKS
Québec City CMA
2013 2014
quebecinternational.ca
ECONOMIC REPORTS
AND OUTLOOKS
Québec City CMA
2013 2014
TABLE
OF CONTENTS
Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
Note to readers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
Economic growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
Purchasing power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
Labour market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
Non-residential investment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Housing market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Tourism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Appendix 1
Primary economic indicators of the Québec City CMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
Appendix 2
Major projects underway and planned in the Québec City CMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Appendix 3
List of major private sector employers by activity
area in the Québec City CMA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22
Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
3
Methodology
This study, entitled Economic Report and Outlooks for the Québec City Census Metropolitan
Area - 2013-2014, was conducted by Québec International. In addition to addressing key
economic indicators for assessing regional performance, it takes an objective look at the
results achieved in 2013 and those expected for 2014. Changes in a number of regional
economic variables are also compared with those of seven other metropolitan areas in
Canada: Montréal, Toronto, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver.
These benchmark regions were selected because, together with Québec City, they form
the eight largest metropolitan areas in Canada and because they have diversified economies
comparable to that of the Québec City Census Metropolitan Area (CMA).
Seven key indicators were selected for this analysis: economic growth, purchasing power,
labour market, non-residential investment, housing market, demographics and tourism.
The appendix lists the major projects underway in the Québec City region, the major
regional employers as well as historical data on the economic indicators analyzed.
This study is based on statistical data published by recognized organizations. Some indicators were processed and analyzed in order to establish forecasts for 2014.
Note to readers
This study was produced by Québec International’s Department of Economic Studies &
Strategic Monitoring. This team of professionals is responsible for ensuring the availability of
high-quality economic information. To that end, they monitor changes in the economic
and business environment at the regional, national and international levels and conduct
various types of research and analysis in order to identify opportunities, guide development
strategies and define actions to be taken in support of regional economic growth.
The information in this study was current as at April 2014.
ECONOMIC REPORTS
AND OUTLOOKS
Québec City CMA
SUMMARY
2013 2014
The economy of the Québec City CMA has positioned itself as one of the best
performing economies in Canada these last few years. The growth strategies
introduced to support the knowledge economy and to stimulate involvement
by the private sector have proven to be wise.
Today, the area displays the appropriate industrial diversity to sustain its growth, but also has the
ability to adjust to the hazards of the world economy. Recent updates reveal that the real GDP
recorded an 8.7% growth over 5 years. The labour market was just as vigorous with the creation of
28,100 jobs during the same period. Furthermore, regional economic expansion boosted nonresidential investment to a record level at close to $1.2G in 2013.
The energy and efforts applied these last years to give the Québec City area a strong economic
profile will be used as leverage to traverse a less expansionist economic period. Initial signs started
to point in this direction in 2013. The annual GDP increase was less than 2% (1.2%) for the second
consecutive year. The job market remained stable compared to 2012. In addition, a slowdown has
taken hold in the residential sector.
Last year’s results revealed that the Québec City economy remains in good health, but certain
restrictions are impacting its performance. The manufacturing industry suggests signs of recovery in
terms of employment, including the sustainable goods sector (+ 8.1% in 2013), while revenues from
companies struggling to recover are due to a still-fragile global economic recovery. As demonstrated
by the low unemployment rate of 4.7% and the high employment rate of 65.1%, the need for manpower
is intensifying. However, the scarcity of qualified and available workers is an irritant for companies
wishing to expand or fill vacant jobs. The regional demographic profile continues to improve and is
exceeding expectations, a positive factor for consumption. However, the population is ageing and the
proportion of international migrants remains less than the representative weight of Québec City at
the provincial level.
It appears that the economic structure for the Québec City CMA has forged itself is an important
lever to start the next decade. Considerable efforts will continue to be deployed to support strong
sectors and enhance the competitiveness of companies. Furthermore, socio-economic players are
asserting their desire to improve the regional business environment by modernizing transportation,
education, R & D, and telecommunications infrastructure, as well as industrial parks and zones.
It should be noted that in its 2014 Competitive Alternatives, KPMG revealed that Québec City stood
out for its competitive cost-benefit ratio 9.3% lower than the United States average. This is a clear
improvement over 2012, when this advantage was 5.8%. Québec City thus ranked 6th worldwide
among the 107 areas analyzed and 1st among areas of comparable size (500,000 to 2 million inhabitants).
5
1
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
The Québec City metropolitan area generated a GDP of $33.1G in 2013,
an increase of 1.2% over 2012. While we had banked on an annual
increase of 1%, the area slightly exceeded our growth expectations.
The resumption of more sustained employment in the fourth quarter
led to an influx of energy at the end of the year. Québec City thus
posted growth comparable to major Canadian CMAs located further
to the East. However, ease in the residential sector and the decline in
manufacturing revenues have forced the region to record less than its
average 2% performance these past 5 years.
The services sector set the pace in 2013 with a 2.1% growth over 2012. Its production services
component generated 76% of the new revenues. The dynamism that mainly surrounds
finance, insurance, professional services including scientific and technical services, business
services and the transportation industry should support growth in this sector in 2014. In
addition, public administration accounted for 32% of the earnings of the service sector last
year. It remains a significant hub of activity for the area and continues to adjust to the various
constraints related to the efforts of governments to limit their spending increases. Finally, the
consumer services component limited its contribution to 2% of last year’s growth. This is only
a postponement since the expansion of the retail trade and work surrounding the upgrading
of some recreational infrastructure suggest an improvement for 2014.
Meanwhile, the construction industry registered a slight decrease of 0.3% last year. The
non-residential sector outperformed, while the amounts invested reached a peak of $1.2G, an
annual increase of 23%. However, the residential sector slowed from 6,416 housing starts in
2012 to 4,680 in 2013. The residential sector will continue to ease in 2014, but the construction
industry will remain, overall, dynamic and diversified in Québec City. The region currently has
nearly 300 current and announced projects for a value of $9.5G.
Crédit¦: Luc Antoine Couturier
For its part, the manufacturing sector has delayed its recovery for another year, while it
posted a decline of 7% in 2013. The stability of the labour market, combined with the
gradual resumption of new orders in recent months, suggests a gradual recovery for the
processing sector in 2014. To this end, activities resumed at the Davie shipyard and
opportunities are gradually emerging from areas related to medical technology, electronic
components, metal products and food processing.
6
In short, the Québec City CMA remains one of the most dynamic areas in Eastern Canada.
Despite a less than exceptional year in 2013, it has accumulated growth of 8.7% between
2008 and 2013, which positions it ahead of Toronto (+ 8.1%) and Montréal (+ 6.8%). For
2014, the outlook is also positive since the real GDP is expected to increase by 2% in the
Québec City area. Regional economic growth will depend, inter alia, on the impact of the
American and European economic recoveries which are being confirmed, and on the
development of key industries and the sustained efforts to develop new production and
export markets.
ECONOMIC REPORTS
AND OUTLOOKS
Québec City CMA
Real GDP: Profile of the 8 major Canadian CMAs
REAL GDP $M
VARIATION (%)
2012
2013
2012-2013
2008-2013
Québec
32,694.0
33,095.1
1.2
8.7
Toronto
290,467.8
295,818.5
1.8
8.1
Montréal
160,915.0
163,700.6
1.7
6.8
Vancouver
110,203.1
113,007.9
2.5
10.5
Calgary
107,426.1
111,410.1
3.7
13.9
Edmonton
79,318.2
83,365.5
5.1
22.3
Ottawa
62,676.4
62,762.7
0.1
4.8
Winnipeg
33,505.8
33,880.3
1.1
7.2
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
2013 2014
Sources: Conference Board of Canada and Québec International
Distribution of the real GDP by activity sector in the Québec City CMA, 2013
Construction
7%
Manufacturing
6%
Services
84%
Primary
3%
Production services
51%
Consumption services
17%
Government services
16%
Credit: Luc Antoine Couturier
Sources: Conference Board of Canada and Québec International
7
2
PURCHASING POWER
AVERAGE SALARY
According to the Conference Board of Canada, a worker earned an average salary of
$40,726 in the Québec City CMA in 2013 ($40,493 in Québec), an annual increase of 2.5%
from 2012 (+ 1.6% in Québec). The steadiness of employment, the scarcity of skilled
labour in certain areas and the diversification of skilled jobs are factors favourable to the
increase of wages in the area. The outlook for positive economic growth for 2014 will also
contribute to maintain this progress.
PERSONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME
The Conference Board of Canada also suggests that personal disposable income (PDI)
per capita amounted to $29,034 in Québec City in 2013 ($26,893 in the province of
Québec), an increase of 2.8% from 2012 (+ 1.9% in Québec). The area ranked first in Québec,
thus beating Montréal ($28,303). For 2014, the PDI per capita will continue to grow in the
Québec City CMA due to the increase of employment earnings and the increase in
government transfers.
INFLATION RATE
The inflation rate rose by 1.1% in the Québec City CMA in 2013. The area experienced an
increase which was slightly more than that of Québec (+ 0.8%) and Canada (+ 1%). However,
the pressure on consumer prices remained well-controlled. In fact, price increases for
goods and services, including food, housing and energy, remained modest, a situation
that could persist in 2014.
RETAIL SALES
The improvement of revenues and the low inflation rate reflected an increase in retail
sales. In 2013, volume of sales reached $12.6G in the metropolitan area of Québec City,
representing an annual increase of 2.5%. The increase in revenues and still-favorable
borrowing rates will help support this progress in 2014.
BANKRUPTCIES
Credit: Yves Tessier, Tassima
The Québec City CMA counted 1,998 bankruptcies in 2013, an increase of 7% compared
with 2012, when there had been 1,868. The seesaw pattern of the evolution of the labour
market appeared to have an effect on consumer portfolios since 1,867 people declared
personal bankruptcy, i.e. 112 more than in 2012. The downturn in the residential sector and
the contraction of the manufacturing industry probably affected part of the 131 companies –
18 more than in 2012 – that filed for bankruptcy last year. Improving the prospects for
economic growth and employment, combined with still-favourable interest rates, should
maintain the number of bankruptcies below 2,000 for Québec City in 2014.
8
ECONOMIC REPORTS
AND OUTLOOKS
Québec City CMA
Profile of the purchasing power of the 8 major Canadian CMAs, 2013
PDI PER
CAPITA
$
Variation (%)
2013 2008-2013
AVERAGE
SALARY
$
Variation (%)
2013 2008-2013
RETAIL
SALES
INFLATION
RATE
$M Variation (%)
2013 2008-2013
%
2013
Québec
29,034
8.5
40,726
6.5
12,650
10.5
0.9
Calgary
42,150
6.8
67,259
9.0
25,408
11.2
1.7
Edmonton
37,400
12.1
60,455
9.0
23,904
15.7
1.2
Ottawa
34,210
12.5
50,848
13.5
17,436
14.9
1.0
Vancouver
32,069
9.1
45,071
8.1
28,921
10.3
0.1
Toronto
31,872
10.9
49,706
8.1
68,889
12.6
1.2
Montréal
27,729
8.5
41,470
9.2
48,131
15.1
0.8
Winnipeg
29,495
8.5
41,925
11.2
10,524
11.9
2.2
POUVOIR
D’ACHAT
2013 2014
Sources: Conference Board of Canada and Québec International
Evolution in the number of bankruptcies by type, Québec City CMA
Number
Number
2,700
190
Consumers (l)
Companies (r)
180
2,500
170
2,300
160
150
2,100
140
130
1,900
120
110
1,500
100
2008
2009
Source: Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada
2010
2011
2012
2013
Credit: Yves Tessier, Tassima
1,700
9
3
LABOUR MARKET
The Québec City CMA counted 421,900 jobs in 2013, 100 less than in
2012. This pause occurs after six consecutive years of growth that led
to the creation of 46,400 jobs between 2006 and 2012. Nevertheless,
the need for labour remains sustained in the area since the
unemployment rate fell by four-tenths of a point, to 4.7% in 2013. The
Québec City area had the lowest unemployment rate in Québec, but
also one of the lowest in Canada.
Although the number of people employed remained almost unchanged in Québec City
between 2012 and 2013, the number of full-time positions has increased by 2,400 last year.
The area partly offset the loss of 2,600 part-time jobs. Moreover, the labour market has been
favourable to the 25-54 and 55+ age groups. For each of these age groups, the Québec City
metropolitan area posted the creation of 2,600 and 6,400 jobs respectively. However, during
the same period, there was a decrease of 9,100 jobs among youths aged 15 to 24, hence
casting a shadow over this performance. Furthermore, the scarcity of available labour
worsened in the 25-54 age group. People in the mid-life population showed an unemployment rate of 3.4% and an employment rate of 86.9% last year.
Even though the services sector had been on a roll since 2007, a loss of 3,800 jobs showed
a decline in terms of employment. This decline had a considerable impact on the regional
assessment as this sector represents approximately 87% of the jobs in the area. Hiring
accelerated for the consumer services component, but not enough to offset the decline
of jobs in production services and government services. Because of its economic structure
increasingly oriented to the knowledge economy, the area suggests an employment
increase in 2014 for different sectors including professional, scientific and technical
services, financial services and insurance, health, and education.
The construction industry quickly made up for its poor performance in 2012 by creating
2,300 jobs in 2013. Although the area enjoys a non-residential sector that remains strong,
the outlook remains modest due to the slowndown of the residential sector.
For its part, the manufacturing sector accounted for 27,300 jobs in 2013 – 700 more that
during the lows of 2012. Despite this gain, the area has returned to levels that prevailed in
the late 1990s, while still far behind the peak of 41,900 jobs it had reached in 2006.
Therefore, this is a return to square one for Québec City that sees new opportunities
appearing on the horizon, particularly in specialized areas. The re-launch of the Davie
shipyard has begun. The expansion of businesses related to food processing, medical
products, electronic components and metal products is continuing gradually. In addition,
the decline in the Canadian dollar and the US economic recovery are favourable to
re-launch orders from our manufacturers.
Employment opportunities will remain positive for the Québec City CMA in 2014. The Léger
survey results on the confidence of entrepreneurs – published in January by Québec
International, the Chambre de commerce et d’industrie de Québec, and the Chambre de
commerce de Lévis – incidentally revealed that 61% of business leaders in the area planned
to hire during the year. In addition, the results for the first quarter showed a gain of
13,500 jobs for the first three months of 2014, registering as the fifth highest in Canada.
However, expectations remain modest as the scarcity of available manpower, including
qualified workers, will dampen this growth, as the low unemployment rate shows us.
10
ECONOMIC REPORTS
AND OUTLOOKS
Québec City CMA
The employment market Profile of the 8 major Canadian CMAs
EMPLOYMENT (‘000)
VARIATION (%)
UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
EMPLOYMENT
RATE
Total 25-54 age
group
2013
2012-2013
2008-2013
Total
25-54 age
group
Québec
421.9
0.0
7.1
4.7
3.4
65.1
86.9
Toronto
3,121.2
3.8
7.9
8.2
7.1
62.7
80.4
Montréal
2,031.7
2.7
6.0
8.0
6.8
61.7
80.9
Vancouver
1,273.3
-0.1
5.5
6.6
5.5
60.7
79.4
Calgary
774.6
2.9
7.8
4.9
4.1
70.6
84.2
Edmonton
718.0
3.6
11.7
4.8
3.9
69.8
83.9
Ottawa
696.4
-2.2
2.3
6.3
4.8
65.3
84.8
Winnipeg
419.1
0.4
4.5
5.9
4.8
65.2
83.6
LABOUR MARKET
2013 2014
Sources: Conference Board of Canada and Québec International
Variation in employment by activity sector, Québec City CMA
2008 index = 100
160
150
140
130
120
Production services
Consumption services
Government services
Sustainable goods
Non-sustainable goods
Construction
+53.6%
+19.2%
110
100
+1%
90
-20.5%
80
70
-33.5%
60
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Note: Based on a mobile 3-year average
Sources: Statistics Canada and Québec International
11
4
NON-RESIDENTIAL
INVESTMENT
In 2013, capital expenditures amounted to $1.2G in the Québec City
CMA, reaching a new peak. Moreover, Québec City registered an
investment growth of 22.8% compared to 2012, positioning itself as
the leader of the 8 major Canadian CMAs.
All components contributed to the increase in non-residential investment in the Québec
City area last year. The commercial sector was the most active, comprising 76% of sums
invested and posting an annual growth of 27%. The integration of retail stores and restaurants
to residential projects and offices, as well as the arrival of Target, have contributed to this
dynamism. 2014 also looks busy due to construction of the Carrefour Saint-Romuald and
projects surrounding the expansion of the Miscéo district.
Activity was also buzzing in the institutional sector. Capital expenditures increased by
14%, grouping together 15% of total expenditures in 2013. Major office buildings projects
took place in Lebourgneuf, Sainte-Foy and Lévis. Work continued on the multi-functional
amphitheatre, the Musée national des beaux-arts du Québec, the airport and the port.
Some of this work will continue in 2014, and will be complemented with, for example, the
introduction of computer data centers and the expansion of the Centre de congrès et
d’expositions de Lévis. Office building projects are also on the drawing boards since the
vacancy rate remains low. It was 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2013.
Meanwhile, industrial investment jumped by 7% in 2013 for 9% of the total investment in the
region. The modernization and expansion efforts of manufacturers seeking to enhance their
competitiveness, combined with the re-launch of the Davie shipyard, have contributed to
this performance. Investment intentions remain present for 2014, and some areas attached to
the pharmaceutical, electronics, metal products, food processing and the manufacture of
transport equipment could stand out.
For 2014, non-residential investment should remain above the $1 billion mark. The update
of the compilation made by Québec International revealed that 170 investment projects are
in progress or have been announced in the metropolitan area and will generate investments
of more than $6G. Acting as a barometer, the increase of 1.7% in the value of building
permits between 2012 and 2013 also suggests sustained activity on non-residential sites
this year.
12
ECONOMIC REPORTS
AND OUTLOOKS
Québec City CMA
2013 2014
Edmonton
NON-RESIDENTIAL
INVESTMENT
Annual variation in non-residential investment for the 8 major
Canadian CMAs
-7.1
Toronto
-2.1
Calgary
2.8
Ottawa
11.3
Vancouver
11.6
Montréal
14.7
Québec
22.8
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Annual variation (%)
Sources: Statistics Canada and Québec International°
$6.2G of non-residential investment distributed over 170 projects
underway and announced in the Québec City CMA in 2014
Distribution
of institutional
investment
Industrial
sector
16 projects
673 M$
Commercial
sector
42 projects
952 M$
Private
49%
Institutional
sector
112 projects
4.5 G$
Public
51%
Compilation: Québec International
13
5
HOUSING MARKET
The residential assessment of the Québec City CMA was consistent
with our expectations in 2013. Construction starts decreased by 27.1%
compared to a record year in 2012, for a total of 4,680 new units. For
the resale market, the region recorded 6,282 transactions for existing
homes, meaning an annual decrease of 13%.
The new housing market continued its slowdown for single-family dwellings, showing a
decline of 23.6% compared to 2012. Meanwhile, the construction of multiple housing
began slowing down, for a decrease of 27.9%. In this regard, the construction of rental
housing has remained sustained due to low occupancy, which was at 2% in October 2013.
The slowdown came from the condominium market instead, which took a pause to sell
unsold new units after the exceptional performances of 2011 and 2012.
For the resale market, the decline is observed in all components, including co-ownership
(-16%), single-family homes (-12%), and plexes (-9%). However, the decrease in the
number of transactions has not curbed the increase in the average price. In 2013, an existing
property sold at an average price of $267,254 – a 3.6% increase over 2012. It should be
noted that the price had increased by 10% for plexes, compared to 3% for single-family
homes and condominiums. Moreover, the increase in new listings and the lengthening of
sales closing dates (around 100 days in 2013) could reduce the increase in prices by
around 3% in 2014.
For 2014, demand for property access will remain sustained in the Québec City area due
to population growth, good employment, the arrival of immigrants, rising incomes and
still low mortgage rates. According to a Québec International compilation, the metropolitan
area currently has a hundred current, and announced, major residential construction
projects. However, the addition of new and existing properties for sale in recent years has
helped the offer adjust itself. This is why we expect a more sustainable rate of about
4,000 construction starts and 6,500 sales of existing units in Québec City in 2014.
14
ECONOMIC REPORTS
AND OUTLOOKS
Québec City CMA
Profile of the housing market, Québec City CMA
Number
7,500
Construction starts
Sales
7,000
HOUSING MARKET
2013 2014
6,500
6,000
5,500
5,000
4,500
2010
2011
2012
2013
Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards (QFREB)
15
6
DEMOGRAPHICS
The Québec City CMA accounts for 9.7% of the Québec population. It
is the 2nd most important area in Québec after Montréal (48.8%). In
2013, 791,934 people lived in the area. It also showed a growth of
0.9% from 2012 (the same as the province). With this performance
that surpasses the most optimistic reference scenario set by the
Institut de la statistique du Québec, the area is displaying a cumulative
growth of 7.5% between 2008 and 2013, compared to 5.1% in Québec.
The number of births remains high in the area just as in the rest of Québec. According to
the most recent data, the Québec City area counted 8,412 infants in 2012, maintaining
itself above the 8,000 bar for the 5th consecutive year. The high level of household
confidence and the improvement of income helps support this performance.
In terms of immigration, it can be seen that Québec City has an increased power of
attraction due mainly to its sustained economic growth, its need for skilled labour and its
quality of life. For the 2012-2013 fiscal year, 3,357 international immigrants chose to settle
in Québec City, for an annual increase of 3.1%. With this performance, the area had a
positive international migration balance of 3,009 people. However, it should be remembered that, although the balance sheet is improving, the region is only attracting 6% of
international immigrants arriving in Québec, for a proportion lower than its demographic
weight. Regarding interprovincial immigration, 1,597 people from other provinces settled
in Québec City during the same period – an increase of 20% over 2011-2012. However,
2,429 people went the opposite way, keeping the area from showing a positive balance,
a situation that has been persisting for more than 15 years.
The birth boom and the increase in the number of new immigrants are favourable to the
increase in the number of inhabitants in the Québec City CMA. The next regional
demographic projections of the Institut de statistique du Québec – which should be
available next fall – lead us also to believe that the Québec City population will continue
to grow over the next 20 years.
However, a concern surrounds the ageing of the population. In 2012, the average age was
42 in the area (41 in Québec), one of the highest in the province. This situation has an
impact on the working age of the population pool. For the first time in nearly 20 years,
the 15-64 age group has not registered any growth in 2013, remaining rather unchanged
from 2012. In addition, its demographic weight has continued to decline, going down to
68.4% last year, while until 2008, it had remained equal or higher than 71%. This raises the
importance of the migration contribution over the medium term to meet the labour needs
of companies wishing to expand or locate in the region.
16
ECONOMIC REPORTS
AND OUTLOOKS
Québec City CMA
Distribution of the population by age group
PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL POPULATION (%)
2003
2013
2031p
0-14
15.7
14.3
15.3
15-24
13.3
12.5
11.1
25-34
13.6
14.4
10.5
35-44
16.0
12.7
12.8
45-64
28.3
28.8
23.8
65 years +
13.2
17.3
26.4
DEMOGRAPHICS
2013 2014
Note: the year 2031 is based on the strong case scenario from the Institut de statistique du Québec
Sources: Institut de la statistique du Québec and Québec International
Number of immigrants by source in the Québec City CMA
Number
3,500
Inter-provincial immigrants
International immigrants
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
Sources: Institut de la statistique du Québec and Québec International
17
7
TOURISM
In recent years, the Québec City area has improved its tourist offering
to business and leisure clients. Several investments related to transportation logistics, holding congresses and major events, modernization
of cultural and recreational infrastructure, as well as the expansion of
accommodation and catering areas, have contributed to its influence.
However, these efforts have not always had an instant effect on
performance indicators. In 2013, the tourism activity composite
index was 93.9 against 95.8 in 2012, registering as the lowest in the
last 7 years.
Despite a more modest year in 2013, some tourism components did well. The indicator
attached to Québec’s Jean-Lesage International Airport went from 152.3 in 2012 to
159.1 last year. In this regard, 1,475,717 travellers transited through the airport, an increase
of 9.9% from 2012. Also, we should also stress the positive performance of the Port of
Québec for cruises. In fact, the latter welcomed 164,159 passengers and crew in 2013, an
increase of more than 1% from the peak year of 2012. Efforts to enhance arrangements
with carriers and the modernization of facilities will contribute to support the activity of
these two entities in the future.
Other indicators also did well. The shopping index resumed an upward swing and the
sites and attractions index remained stable compared to 2012. The high number of
tourists in the area, combined with the many large-scale events, probably contributed to
this performance.
However, attendance scores associated with accommodation and catering declined
last year. The still-high value of the Canadian dollar and the persistence of economic
uncertainties could be factors dampening certain expenditures. Of course, this did not
prevent the hotel occupancy rate to climb from 57.8% in 2012 to 58.2% in 2013, the highest
rate observed since the 60.8% peak in 2008. However, part of this improvement was
caused by a decrease in available rooms, as more than 400 were crossed off the area
room offer.
Credit: Claudel Huot
Despite these mixed results, tourism remains an economic engine for the Québec City
area. It generates nearly 24,000 direct jobs and its contribution to the Québec GDP
amounts to $1G. In addition, ongoing efforts to diversify the tourist offer with various
clients should prove an asset to increase the trend towards Québec City and its outskirts.
18
ECONOMIC REPORTS
AND OUTLOOKS
Québec City CMA
Tourism indicators for the Québec City area
2011
2012
2013
98.1
95.8
93.9
Hotel occupancy index
100.6
100.9
97.7
Site/attraction use index
86.6
90.6
90.5
Shop visits index
95.2
90.5
92.4
Restaurant occupancy index
99.3
92.6
90.6
Airport use index of Jean-Lesage
International Airport
148.8
152.3
159.1
Hotel occupancy rate (%)
57.4
57.8
58.2
Composite index of tourism activity
TOURISM
2013 2014
Credit: Claudel Huot
Source: Québec City Tourism
19
APPENDIX 1
PRIMARY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
OF THE QUÉBEC CITY CMA
2003
Real GDP (millions of $)
Annual change (%)
Real GDP per capita ($)
Annual change (%)
Disposable income per capita ($)
26,825.3
2010
2011
2012
2013
31,543.3 32,195.7 32,694.0 33,095.1
2014F
33,757.0
2.0
2.6
2.1
1.5
1.2
2.0
37,646
41,149
41,445
41,638
41,790
42,313
1.4
1.3
0.7
0.5
0.4
1.3
29,754
21,945
27,470
27,500
28,250
29,034
Annual change (%)
4.6
0.6
0.1
2.7
2.8
2.5
Average pay rate ($)
33,278
38,391
38,517
39,722
40,726
41,817
Annual change (%)
Population
Annual change (%)
5.2
-0.9
0.3
3.1
2.5
2.7
712,568
766,563
776,821
785,191
791,934
799,061
0.5
1.3
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.9
Labour market
Labour force
Annual change (%)
Number of jobs
Annual change (%)
Job creation
Manufacturing
Food processing
Chemicals
Rubber/plastic products
Metal products
Transportation equipment
and machinery
Computer, electronic
and electrical products
Construction
Services
Public utilities
Financial, insurance and real estate
Professional, scientific
and technical services
Wholesale and retail trade
Transportation and storage
Accommodation and food services
Unemployment rate (%)
Participation rate (%)
Employment rate (%)
20
388,200
0.2
361,200
-0.4
-1,600
32,700
5,100
1,600
n/a
2,700
n/a
431,100 443,200 444,500 442,800
n/a
3.8
2.8
0.3
-0.4
n/a
410,200 419,700 422,000 421,900 424,400
3.8
2.3
0.5
-0.0
0.6
15,100
9,500
2,300
-100
2,500
29,100
31,500
26,600 27,300
n/a
6,100
3,900
5,300
4,200
n/a
2,000
2,200
1,900
1,800
n/a
n/a
3 100
n/a
n/a
n/a
3,400
3,000
3,300
3,200
n/a
n/a
4,300
2,500
4,500
2,600
2,100
2,100
n/a
n/a
16,100
19,500 25,700
21,800
24,100
306,800 355,900 358,800 369,800 366,000
122,400 139,500 134,300 148,600 143,600
21,400
33,800 36,400
34,100
34,000
23,100
58,200
14,100
25,800
6.4
67.2
62.9
33,900
63,900
12,700
28,900
4.9
68.6
65.2
34,500
61,200
14,400
33,500
5.3
69.6
65.9
38,700
58,900
15,300
28,100
5.1
69.2
65.7
37,300
59,800
17,200
27,300
4.7
68.4
65.1
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
4.5
n/a
n/a
ECONOMIC REPORTS
AND OUTLOOKS
Québec City CMA
2003
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014F
Housing market
Housing starts
Annual change (%)
Single dwellings
Multiple housing
Resale market
Annual change (%)
Average selling price ($)
Annual change (%)
Vacancy rate (%)
5,599
30.8
2,674
2,925
6,811
-11.7
n/a
n/a
n/a
6,652
20.7
1,768
4,884
7,100
-4.8
235,722
1.0
5,445
-18.1
1,349
4,096
7,241
2.0
245,470
4.1
1.6
6,416
17.8
1,258
5,158
7,219
-0.3
257,942
5.1
2.0
4,680
-27.1
970
3,710
6,282
-13.0
267,254
3.6
2.5
4,000
-14.5
n/a
n/a
6,500
3.5
275,272
3.0
2.7
Retail sales (millions of $)
Annual change (%)
8,912.4
5.0
12,136.2
5.9
12,130.1
-0.1
12,345.5
1.8
12,649.8
2.5
12,975.0
2.6
2.6
1.4
3.0
2.2
0.9
1.1
Inflation rate (%)
APPENDIX 1
2013 2014
Office buildings
Vacancy rate (%)
4.6
5.0
6.1
7.2
6.5
7.0
Gross rent ($/sq. ft.)
16.96
19.95
20.69
21.76
21.70
n/a
Number of buildings
170
196
201
204
211
n/a
14,638,000
16,701,520
16,950,064
17,494,993
18,288,808
n/a
1,003,443
239,697
39,640
63,022
661,084
1,710,086
306,573
98,176
123,756
1,181,581
1,686,712
422,525
93,967
74,564
1,095,656
1,697,117
358,626
70,680
104,105
1,163,706
1,725,444
533,165
104,267
158,357
929,655
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Personal bankruptcies
n/a
1,956
1,792
1,755
1,867
n/a
Corporate bankruptcies
n/a
124
126
113
131
n/a
Hotel occupancy rate (%)
53.9
56.3
57.4
57.8
58.2
n/a
Existing surface (sq. ft.)
Value of building permits
(thousands of $)
Commercial (thousands of $)
Industrial (thousands of $)
Institutional (thousands of $)
Residential (thousands of $)
F: forecast
n/a: not available
Sources: Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada, Institut de la statistique du Québec, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC),
Québec Federation of Real Estate Boards (QFREB), Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy Canada, Altus Group, Desjardins Group and Québec
International.
21
APPENDIX 2
MAJOR PROJECTS UNDERWAY AND PLANNED
IN THE QUÉBEC CITY CMA
22
Company name
City
Type of investment
Port de Québec
Québec City
Expansion
Investment (M$)
400.0
Société immobilière
Maestri Terra
Lévis
Carrefour Saint-Romuald –
commercial complex
400.0
City of Québec
Québec City
Construction of a
multi-functional amphitheatre
400.0
Cominar
Québec City
Mixed real estate project
250.0
Québec City Jean-Lesage
International Airport
Québec City
Expansion and
et modernisation
225.0
City of Lévis
Lévis
Construction of a multi-functional
center – Miscéo district
200.0
Government of Canada
Québec City
Upgrading of the Citadel
165.0
Telus
Québec City
Deployment of OPTIK technology
and mobile infrastructures
150.0
Oxford Properties Group
Québec City
Expansion of the Galeries de la Capitale
150.0
CSST
Québec City
Expansion of CSST head office
130.0
Capitale Hélicoptère
Québec City
Construction of a heliport complex
and purchase of aircrafts
130.0
Desjardins Group
Lévis
Construction of an office building
125.0
City of Québec
Québec City
Construction of a bio-methanization plant 124.5
Government of Canada
Québec City
Reconstruction of the military armoury
104.0
Commission de la capitale
nationale du Québec
Québec City
Construction of the Promenade
Samuel-De-Champlain station du Foulon
100.0
City of Lévis
Lévis
Phase 1 Innoparc
100.0
Musée national des
beaux-arts du Québec
Québec City
Expansion
90.3
City of Québec
Québec City
Construction of a police
center at Parc Victoria
85.2
Cominar
Québec City
Construction of an office building –
Complexe Jules-Dallaire
80.0
Château Frontenac
Québec City
Hotel modernization
66.0
City of Lévis
Lévis
Construction of a multi-functional,
5,000 capacity amphitheatre
60.0
City of Lévis
Lévis
Construction of a science, technology
and innovation exploration center
60.0
Ex Machina
Québec City
Creation of Le Diamant theatre
60.0
Interplex
Québec City
Construction of a computer data center
60.0
Société immobilière
du Québec
Québec City
Expansion of the ministère des
Ressources naturelles buildings
58.0
Valero
Lévis
Modernization of the refinery’s
port storage area
51.0
ECONOMIC REPORTS
AND OUTLOOKS
Québec City CMA
Company name
City
Type of investment
Investment (M$)
SSQ Groupe financier
Québec City
Construction of an office building
50.0
City of Lévis
Lévis
Renewal of the Québec-Lévis
ferry facilities
50.0
Société immobilière
du Québec
Québec City
Construction of a new building
for Revenu Québec
37.1
GSK
Québec City
Modernization and addition of a
vaccine production line
36.0
Immostar
Québec City
Construction of an office building –
Place de l’Escarpement (phase 2)
35.0
Asentri
Québec City
Construction of a computer data center
34.5
Pomerleau and Kevlar
Québec City
Construction of a new office tower
for the federal government at D’Estimauville
30.0
City of St-Augustin
St-Augustin
Construction of a new sports complex
30.0
Four Points Sheraton
Lévis
Expansion of the hotel
30.0
Ubisoft
Québec City
Expansion
28.0
City of Québec
Québec City
Construction of a soccer stadium in Beauport
25.0
Héma Québec
Québec City
Construction of a research center
21.5
APPENDIX 2
2013 2014
Sources: Emploi-Québec and Québec International
23
APPENDIX 3
LIST OF MAJOR PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYERS
BY ACTIVITY AREA IN THE QUÉBEC CITY CMA
Primary sector
Productions horticoles Demers
Sustainable goods
Number of
employees
100-199
Groupe Canam Inc.
1 000-1 499
Ferme Onésime Pouliot Inc.
50-99
EXFO
500-999
Fraises de l’Île d’Orléans Québec Inc.
50-99
Davie
500-999
Ferme François Gosselin Inc.
50-99
Entreprises Forestières Serge Bureau Inc. 50-99
ABB Inc. - Division solutions
analytiques de pointe
200-499
Serres Lacoste
50-99
Olympus N.D.T. Canada
200-499
50-99
Multiver Ltd
200-499
Vaperma
20-49
Julien
200-499
CSL-Loma
20-49
Junex
20-49
SBI Fabricant de poêles
international Inc.
200-499
Corporation Stéris Canada
200-499
Solaris Québec Inc.
200-499
Sablière Drapeau Inc.
Construction
Number of
employees
Lambert Somec Inc.
200-499
Borea Construction
200-499
Construction Polaris Inc.
200-499
TBC Constructions Inc.
200-499
Construction Gely Inc.
200-499
Armatures EB Inc.
200-499
Honeywell Ltd
200-499
Construction BML Division de Sintra
Coffrage LD
CRT Construction Inc.
Non-sustainable goods
24
Number of
employees
Services
Number of
employees
Mouvement Desjardins
5 000 et plus
Industrielle Alliance
1 500-2 999
SSQ
1 500-2 999
CGI
1 000-1 499
La Capitale
1 000-1 499
Hôtels Jaro
1 000-1 499
200-499
Beenox
500-999
200-499
Roche Ltd
500-999
200-499
Bell Canada
500-999
Ubisoft
200-499
Number of
employees
Ultramar Ltd
500-999
Frito Lay Canada
500-999
GlaxoSmithKline
Biotechnologicals Amérique
du Nord
500-999
Exceldor coopérative
500-999
Alex Coulombe Ltd
200-499
Louis Garneau Sports Inc.
200-499
Agropur Coopérative - Division Natrel
200-499
Biscuits Leclerc Ltd
200-499
Sanimax
200-499
Pharmalab
200-499
GLOSSARY
DEMOGRAPHICS
Census metropolitan area (CMA)
Area formed by one or more neighbouring municipalities
located around a major urban centre. To constitute a CMA,
the urban centre must have at least 100,000 inhabitants.
To constitute a census agglomeration (CA), the urban
centre must have at least 10,000 inhabitants.
Natural growth
Changes in population numbers due to net births/deaths.
Net migration
The difference between the number of individuals moving
into an area and the number leaving in a given year. This
concept is independent of nationality.
LABOUR MARKET
Active (working) population
Civilian population aged 15 years old and higher, not living
in an institution and or on a reserve, either employed or
unemployed.
Average pay rate
The average annual full-time wage/salary earned by full-time
workers (more than 30 hours/week) in a normal working year.
Employment rate
Number of active workers expressed as a percentage of
the total population aged 15 years and older.
Inflation rate
The loss in purchasing power of money due to general and
lasting price increases.
Participation rate
Active population expressed as a percentage of the total
population aged 15 years and older.
Replacement index
The relation between the number of young people entering
the labour market (20 to 29 years of age) and the number of
individuals preparing to retire (55 to 64 years old), multiplied
by 100.
Total number of employees
Those employees engaged in the production or nonmanufacturing operations of an establishment. The working
owners and partners are tabulated separately from
employees and are not included in the employee count.
Unemployed
Individuals who are available to work, have no paid employment and actively looking for work.
Workers
Individuals between 25 and 64 years of age with employment or business income as their primary income source
residing in a given area.
ECONOMICS
Bankruptcy
The state of being or becoming bankrupt.
Disposable personal income
Personal income less direct personal income taxes, social
insurance contributions and other current transfers to
public administrations.
Gross domestic product (GDP)
The total unduplicated value of the goods and services
produced in an economic area (such as a region) during a
given period, regardless of the ownership (foreign/
domestic) of the production factors. GDP at basic prices
corresponds to the GDP calculated at market prices, less tax
deductions applicable to goods, plus consumer subsidies.
INVESTMENTS AND BUILDING
PERMITS
Building permits
Building permits correspond to those issued by municipalities with 10,000 or more inhabitants for the construction
of new buildings or the undertaking of improvements,
depending on building type (residential, industrial, commercial, institutional and governmental).
Capital investments
Capital investments are capital expenditures related to
new construction projects and major improvements to
existing buildings, in addition to purchases of new machinery and equipment. These expenditures also include individual expenditures on residential construction, but do
not include purchases of land, existing buildings or used
machinery or equipment (unless imported).
Public-sector investments
Public-sector investments are capital expenditures made by
publicly-ownedcompanies and governments at the federal,
provincial and local levels. Provincial public administrations
include educational, healthcare and social services institutions.
Value of building permits
The value of building permits corresponds to the value of
planned building projects in the non-residential sector,
the number of authorized dwelling units and the value of
building projects in the residential sector.
Unemployment rate
Number of unemployed expressed as a percentage of the
active population.
25
ECONOMIC REPORTS
AND OUTLOOKS
Québec City CMA
2013 2014
GLOSSAIRE
HOUSING MARKET
Condominium
A legal structure under which the ownership of
immovable property is divided among various
co-owners.
Rental housing
Residential dwellings or buildings available for rent.
Vacancy rate
The percentage of apartments and row houses that
are unoccupied and available for rent.
TOURISM
Hotel vacancy rate
The relation between the number of occupied hotel
rooms and the number of available hotel rooms in
a given area.
Main abbreviations
n/a: not available
F: forecast
R: revised data
$: dollars
Q: quarter
M: million
G: billion
26
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