(b) 0.25 years, 10 trials
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Classical Estimate
0.7
0.6
0.0
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.0
(e) 0.5 years, 10 trials
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Classical Estimate
0.6
Classical Estimate
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.1
0.2
(g) 1 year, 5 trials
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.0
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.4
Bayesian Estimate
0.5
0.6
0.7
Classical Estimate
Classical Estimate
0.6
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.7
(i) 1 year, 30 trials
0.7
0.1
0.2
(h) 1 year, 10 trials
0.6
0.0
0.1
Bayesian Estimate
0.7
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.7
0.3
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.3
0.5
0.5
Bayesian Estimate
0.4
0.4
0.1
Bayesian Estimate
0.5
0.3
(f) 0.5 years, 30 trials
0.7
0.6
0.1
0.2
Bayesian Estimate
0.7
0.0
0.1
Bayesian Estimate
(d) 0.5 years, 5 trials
Classical Estimate
0.5
0.1
Bayesian Estimate
Classical Estimate
(c) 0.25 years, 30 trials
0.7
0.6
Classical Estimate
Classical Estimate
(a) 0.25 years, 5 trials
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Bayesian Estimate
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Bayesian Estimate