RAISEonline methodology guidance This document provides guidance on the methodology used to populate the 2016 RAISEonline reports. Published: January 2017 Reference no: version 3 Contents General information 4 Navigating RAISEonline reports 5 Definitions 6 Context Basic Characteristics Other context reports available 7 7 8 Absence and exclusions Absence Exclusion 8 8 9 Note on small cohorts 11 Early Years 11 Key Stage 1 Phonics End of KS1 Key stage 1 summary 12 12 13 13 Key stage 2 Key stage Key stage Key stage Key stage Key stage Key stage 17 17 18 18 20 22 23 2 2 2 2 1 2 progress attainment summary progress and attainment reports to key stage 2 transition tables scatter plots Key stage 4 Key stage 4 progress and attainment measures Key stage 4 progress and attainment reports Other key stage 4 reports 26 26 27 34 Data Source 39 Appendix 40 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 2 Appendix A – Basic characteristics Appendix B - Absence and exclusion 40 46 Appendix C – Phonics Appendix D – End of KS1 Appendix E – KS2 progress Appendix F – Prior attainment bands Appendix G - Confidence intervals Appendix H – Progress 8 Appendix J – Thresholds Appendix K – Summary of performance tables approved qualification results for all pupils Appendix L – RPIs for performance table approved qualifications 48 49 52 55 55 56 58 59 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 60 3 General Information In 2016 RAISEonline reports have been reviewed to take account of assessment and accountability changes. The methodology used within RAISEonline is consistent with that applied to the same measures in the school performance tables. For primary schools, scaled scores and subject progress measures are shown instead of value added, expected progress and average point scores (APS). For secondary schools, Progress 8 and Attainment 8 are shown instead of value added best 8, expected progress and APS. There is no historic data shown for key stages 1, 2 or 4, as the data is not comparable, but data from previous years can be accessed through the summary reports and historical interactive data sections. This document provides an overview of how to navigate the RAISEonline reports, key definitions and an outline of the methodology used to produce the different reports. It also provides guidance on how to interpret the information. If you require the formulas for the calculations, these are included in the appendices alongside worked examples. Each interactive report has a unique identifier, which is used in to assist in locating reports. The titles of reports have been amended to more clearly describe their contents. These are used throughout this document. Some of the RAISEonline reports are only available in the interactive reports but not in the summary report, this is indicated by an (I). The methodology included in this document relates to 2016 reports. For information on reports prior to 2016, please see the archive section of the RAISEonline library. If you have any further queries that cannot be resolved through the support material in this document or the RAISEonline library please contact us by emailing [email protected] RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 4 Navigating RAISEonline reports This is the view when you first enter the reports section of RAISEonline: Each report has a help box, when in the report click on the link to take you to guidance specific to that report. To access summary reports or the inspection dashboard click on the PDF documents link. From all report pages you can always link directly to the RAISEonline library. Use the search options to help locate the report that you require. Tree view groups the different types of interactive reports. The list of reports can be expanded or contracted. To access the interactive reports click on the link for that report. Use the Latest news link to for information on any updates to the information on RAISEonline. If you have any questions relating to the data in the RAISEonline reports you may find the answer in the FAQ section. At the top of the interactive reports there are some additional options to help with your analysis: Use this drop down to quickly navigate to another related report. For some reports, use the options drop down to change options including viewing different national comparators. The interactive reports can be exported or printed. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 5 Definitions Special Education Needs (SEN) On 1 September 2014, a range of SEND reforms were introduced as part of the Children and Families Act. Following the changes to SEN school census codes, RAISEonline has adopted the following categories: no SEN SEN support (which replaces School Action and School Action Plus) SEN with statement or Education, Health and Care (EHC) plan. Free school meals (FSM) The FSM pupils are those who are, or have been, eligible for free school meals and have claimed them in the last 6 years (years R to 11) at the time of the January census. Children looked after Pupils that have been in local authority care for one day or more. Disadvantaged The term disadvantaged currently pertains only to the attainment and progress sections. From 2015, the definition of a disadvantaged pupil changed to reflect changes to the conditions of funding for the pupil premium in 2014-2015. Pupils are defined as disadvantaged in RAISEonline if they are recorded as: eligible for FSM in the last six years or looked after continuously for one day or more or having left care through adoption or another formal route. All pupils that are not defined as disadvantaged are called ‘other pupils’ in RAISEonline, but may occasionally also be referred to as ‘non-disadvantaged’. Minority ethnic groups This is derived from categories recorded for pupils in the school census1. 1 See section 8 of the school census guidance https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/school-census-2016to-2017-guide-for-schools-and-las RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 6 Context The context section provides information on characteristics of pupils within the school. The figures in this section do not affect any other calculations, such as progress measures. Basic characteristics2 Two versions of the report are available, ‘Basic characteristics of your school’ that shows three years of data for the school, and ‘Basic characteristics by national curriculum year group’ that shows the current year’s data by year group. The national comparators for these reports are separated by phase into Primary (or middle deemed primary) and Secondary (or middle deemed secondary). Special schools are compared with the ‘Secondary’ national comparator. Number on roll is a count of the number of students on roll with an enrolment status of current or main school in a dual registration. The percentiles break down the figures into five groups (or quintiles) to assist comparison with other schools for the current year only. The numbers under the graphs show national figures for each quintile boundary. For these groups the national comparator is either maintained primary or secondary depending on the type of school. The stability indicator is a measure of the percentage of students who were admitted to the school at a time later than the standard time of admission. 2 In this example the girls percentage of 51.7 lies in the last quintile showing that this school is in the highest 20% of schools in terms of percentage of pupils in that category. The school deprivation indicator is calculated based on known Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) value assigned to their home postcode. In this example the FSM percentage of 14.1 lies in the first quintile showing that this school is in the lowest 20% of schools in terms of percentage of pupils in that category. Report codes within RAISEonline: PriSec2.1BasicNCYearGroup, BasicNCYearGroup RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 7 In the BasicNCYearGroup, the data is broken down by year group, so that the analyses are performed separately for each National Curriculum Year. National comparators are not shown for this report. Children looked after is shown as number in each year group. See appendix A for more information on the basic characteristics calculations. Other context reports available3 There are additional reports available to allow analysis of the context data by ethnic groups, first language or SEN type. The figures provided for ethnic groups and first language are provided for children of statutory school age or older, since it is not compulsory to record characteristics for pre-school children. Absence and exclusions Different national averages are calculated for the different types of maintained schools: primary, middle deemed primary, middle deemed secondary, secondary, special schools. Absence4 Absence data is calculated on all enrolments aged between five and fifteen registered at the school. There are two possible sessions in a day, morning and 3 Report codes within RAISEonline: PriSec 2.2, PriSec2.6.1 4 Report codes within RAISEonline: Abs_2, Trend_1 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 8 afternoon. From September 2015, persistent absentees are defined as missing 10% or more of the possible sessions. Previously they were defined as missing 15% or more of possible sessions. Absence data in RAISEonline is based upon absence in Autumn and Spring only, not the full year of data. The Department for Education publish the full year of absence data, but it is not available in time for RAISEonline releases. It is usually published around March of the following year (i.e. March 2017 for 2015/16 data). Overall absence is the percentage of possible half-day sessions. % of sessions missed due to Overall Absence School National average for primary schools Persistent absence is the percentage of pupils who have missed 10% or more of their own individual possible sessions. % Persistent absentees absent for 10% or more sessions School National average for primary schools All Pupils Gender Male Female Free School Meals* FSM Non FSM See appendix B for more information on the absence calculations. Absence percentiles for primary and secondary schools are published in the RAISEonline library. Exclusions5 The exclusion reports for mainstream and special schools include: fixed term exclusions as a percentage of the total school roll percentage of pupils with 1 or more fixed term exclusions percentage of pupils with more than 1 fixed term exclusion (repeat exclusions) 5 Report codes within RAISEonline: Exc_1, Trend_1 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 9 permanent exclusions as a percentage of the pupil group. A fixed period exclusion refers to a pupil who is excluded from a school but remains on the register of that school because they are expected to return when the exclusion period is completed. A permanent exclusion refers to a pupil who is excluded and their name removed from the school register. Such a pupil would then be educated at another school or via some other form of provision. The national comparator for mainstream primary schools and middle deemed primary schools is the same as for maintained primary schools. The national comparator for mainstream secondary schools and middle deemed secondary schools is the same as for maintained secondary schools. All special schools are compared with secondary schools. In the reporting of fixed term exclusions as a percentage of a pupil group, the figures are independent calculations for each pupil group. High percentages, even above 100% are possible, and would typically relate to pupil groups of small cohort size, such as SEN with a statement/EHC plan. Each period of exclusion counts in the calculation. For example, if there is just one pupil in a pupil group and that pupil has been excluded three times, then the figure is 300%. Dually registered pupils are counted on the roll of only one school according to the following table: Mainstream School PRU NonHospital Special School Hospital Special School Mainstream school Non-hospital special school Assign Pupil to Mainstream school Reason PRUs not reported separately in tables Special schools are reported separately in the tables Hospital schools not reported separately in tables Non-hospital special school PRUs not reported separately in tables Non-hospital special school Hospital schools not reported separately in tables See appendix B for more information on the exclusion calculations. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 10 Note on small cohorts Inspectors should not report separately on small numbers (typically fewer than five) where individual pupils could be identified. Further guidance about Ofsted inspection is available in the school inspection handbook. Early years6 The percentage of pupils achieving a good level of development in the early years foundation stage profile (EYFSP) is shown. A good level of development is defined as achieving at least the level expected in each early learning goal in the following areas of learning: communication and language; physical development; personal, social and emotional development; literacy and mathematics. Exemplification material for the level expected in each goal is available at the following link: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/eyfs-profileexemplication-materials There is no pupil list available for the EYFSP, nor is there a 'schools own' facility for this report. The EYFSP data published in RAISEonline is based on pupils in reception only. A pupil recorded as being in a nursery class rather than reception would not have been included. The national and school figures are calculated based on maintained mainstream and maintained and non-maintained specials. Pupils have to have an outcome of 1, 2 or 3 in all 17 areas of learning. So if a pupil has an assessment of A in any of the learning goals then they are excluded from the calculations. 6 Report codes within RAISEonline: – EYFSP RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 11 Key stage 1 Phonics7 There is a range of reports showing percentages of pupils meeting the expected standard in Year 1 and Year 2, pupil level information and trends; school figures are shown alongside national figures. Year 2 phonics data shows the percentage of all Year 2 pupils that have reached the expected standard whether it was in Year 1 or in Year 2. In the case of a pupil repeating Year 1, the pupil’s results are reported based upon the actual year group that they are in rather than age, so their results will be included as part of the Year 1 cohort. Year 1 or Year 2 phonics screening reports (Y1.PPC, Y2.PPC) show the percentage of pupils in the school meeting the expected standard alongside the national percentage for the same pupil group: Additional columns have been added to the The cohort comprises the pupils who: met the expected standard; did not meet the expected standard; were absent; were misapplied; whose outcome was affected by malpractice. All Pupils Gender Male Female Free School Meals* FSM Non FSM Children Looked After CLA Not CLA phonics tables in 2016 showing average marks. Phonics Screening Check Cohort Number A/D* Number achieving expected standard Clicking on a pupil group in the interactive report takes you to the year 1/ year 2 Phonics Pupil List for that group of pupils. % School % National Average mark School National An A indicates a pupil was absent, a D indicates a pupil did not take the test. These pupils are included in the denominator for calculating the percentage. The pupil level reports (Y1.PPL, Y2.PPL) include pupil characteristics, and the marks attained, the percentage correct response, and whether or not the pupil achieved the expected standard. 7 Report codes within RAISEonline: Y1.PPC, Y1.PPL (I), Y1.PFTM, Y2.PPC, Y2.PPL (I), Y12PPT RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 12 The percentage of pupils achieving different marks can be viewed as a distribution chart (Y1.PFTM): Yellow bars indicate pupils who achieved the expected standard. The blue line represents the national. Red bars indicate pupils who did not achieve the expected standard. You can find additional guidance in the FAQs at: https://www.raiseonline.org/contact/faqData.aspx?faqId=45 and also in the help boxes associated with some of the interactive phonics reports. End of KS18 The KS1 attainment reports show the percentage of pupils achieving the different standards in reading, writing, mathematics and science based on teacher assessments. The teacher assessment outcomes for reading, writing and mathematics are: below pre key stage, foundations, working towards, at expected and greater depth. For science teacher assessments there are just two outcomes: met expected and not met expected. Key stage 1 summary The KS1 summary tables compare school percentages for all and disadvantaged pupils achieving different standards to national figures. There are two tables for each subject, the table on the left with figures for those achieving the expected standard and above, and the table on the right with figures for those achieving greater depth. Here is an example of the reading part of a summary table (KS1.Sum): 8 Report codes within RAISEonline: KS1.Sum, KS1.TA, KS1Sci, EYKS1.Trans, KS1.List (I) RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 13 An A indicates a pupil was absent, a D indicates a pupil that was disapplied from the teacher assessment. The national comparator shown for disadvantaged is the national figure for other pupils (non-disadvantaged). For disadvantaged pupils the difference shown is with the national figure for other pupils (non-disadvantaged pupils). This is calculated by subtracting the national % from the school figure. Red shows that the difference is below national, pale red for 1 pupil below and bright red for 2 or more pupils below. This represents the difference per pupil. Green shows that the difference is above national, pale green for 1 pupil above and bright green for 2 or more pupils above. To calculate ‘Diff’ you need to determine the percentage that one pupil represents by dividing 100 by the cohort size e.g. 100/10=10. The difference in percentage points is then divided by the percentage represented by one pupil e.g. 20/10=2. This is shown as a whole number, always rounded down. A Diff of 1 or more shows that the school’s results are above the national figure. A Diff of 0 shows that the school’s results are close to the national figure. A negative Diff shows that the school’s results are below the national figure. You are able to drill down from any cell with cohort and school percentages in it to the appropriate pupil list, simply by clicking on the cell. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 14 The report below is an example of a KS1 subject report (KS1.TA): When the national comparator is ‘same’ the national average is calculated only using that group. In this example it is the national average for females. When the national comparator is ‘all’ the national average is calculated only using all groups. When the national comparator is ‘non’ the national average is for other (nondisadvanta ged) pupils. To access the pupil list direct from a report click on percentage for any of the pupil groups. The percentage achieving different standards has been broken down based on EYFS development so you can see how different groups performed. To switch between different subjects, use the drop down above the interactive report. In the interactive version of the reports, you can also change the national comparator type to the same for all the different groups by using the ‘Options’ drop down above the report. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 15 Transition tables for all pupils, disadvantaged pupils and those assessed using P scales are available to assist in comparison of EYFS development and attainment at the end of KS1. For more information on teacher assessment outcomes: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/teacherassessment-key-stage-1-and-key-stage-2 See appendix D for more information on end of key stage 1 calculations and worked examples. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 16 Key stage 2 There are a range of reports showing progress and attainment together using the new accountability measures for reading, writing, mathematics, EGPS and science. Percentile ranks for the top and bottom 15% are now included on the summary reports to provide information on the position of a school in the overall distribution. Key stage 2 progress The new progress measures aim to capture the progress that pupils make from the end of key stage 1 to the end of primary school. They are a type of value added measure, which means that pupils’ results are compared to the actual achievements of other pupils nationally with similar prior attainment. Zero is the national average progress score for all pupils and for each prior attainment group. Progress is calculated for individual pupils solely in order to calculate the school’s overall progress scores. A school’s progress scores in English reading, English writing and mathematics is calculated as the average of its pupils’ progress scores. These scores give an indication of whether, as a group, pupils in the school made above or below average progress in a subject compared with pupils with similar starting points in other schools. Progress scores are calculated by first assigning pupils into groups with other pupils nationally with similar KS1 prior attainment. An average KS2 scaled score is calculated for each prior attainment group. The progress score is the difference between the pupil’s actual KS2 outcome and the average for all other pupils nationally in the same prior attainment group. A school’s progress score, for a subject, is the mean average of its pupils’ progress scores in that subject. More information on the new primary school accountability measures is available from the following link: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/primary-school-accountability For more information on the calculations and worked examples see appendix E. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 17 Key stage 2 attainment For reading, English grammar punctuation and spelling (EGPS) and mathematics, test results are used to determine if pupils are meeting the expected standard. The pupil’s raw test scores are mapped to scaled scores. The conversion tables are available: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/scaled-scores-at-key-stage-2 All scaled scores are between 80 and 120. A scaled score of 100 represents the expected standard in the test, therefore pupils scoring 100 or more will have met the expected standard of the test. A score of 99 means a pupil has not met the expected standard. For 2016, a score of 110 means that a pupil has met the high standard. Writing and science data is based on teacher assessments. The interim teacher assessment frameworks are available here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/interim-frameworks-for-teacherassessment-at-the-end-of-key-stage-2 For more information on the key stage 2 attainment calculations see appendix E. Key stage 2 summary9 The KS2 summary tables include both progress and attainment summaries. They compare school figures for all and disadvantaged pupils to national other figures, for different prior attainment bands. There are two tables for attainment the first showing figures for those achieving the expected standard or above, the other table showing figures for those achieving the high scaled score. For information on key stage 1 prior attainment bands see appendix F. There are separate tables for reading, writing and mathematics. Here is an example of the reading part of a summary table (KS2.Sum): 9 Report codes within RAISEonline: KS2.Sum RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 18 A negative number indicates that the school’s progress score is below the national average of zero. A positive number indicates that the school’s progress score is above the national average of zero. This is calculated by subtracting the national score from the school figure. Shading on the progress table identifies scores that are statistically significantly above or significantly below national figures. Bright green is used when it falls in the top 10% of schools, bright red for when it falls in the bottom 10 % of schools. These figures represent 95% confidence intervals. Confidence intervals for small numbers of pupils tend to be wider because the results of each pupil can have disproportionate effect on the overall figure. Confidence intervals for large numbers of pupils tend to be small as the results of each individual pupil have less effect on the overall figure. For information on their calculation see appendix G. The percentile rank indicates where a school fits into the overall distribution. Shading on the attainment tables is used to indicate when a school’s figures are above or below the national figures. It is only applied to attainment by prior attainment. Green shows that the difference is above national, pale green for 1 pupil above and bright green for 2 or more pupils above. Red shows that the difference is below national, pale red for 1 pupil below and bright red for 2 or more pupils below. For information on difference methodology and national comparators see the key stage 1 summary table on page 14. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 19 Key stage 2 progress and attainment reports10 To show progress across the curriculum there are reports for each subject showing the percentage of pupils reaching the expected standard, a scaled score of 100 or more. These reports provide an additional breakdown of groups based on prior attainment bands low, middle and high. For information on how these groups are determined see appendix F. Here is an example of a reading report (KS2.Test): A positive score means that, on average, pupils in the school made more progress than did those nationally with the same starting points. A negative score means that, on average, pupils made less progress than did those nationally with the same starting point. This shows the percentage of pupils who achieved the high scaled score of 110 or more. This breakdown displays the attainment and progress of pupils who have been in the same school throughout years 5 and 6. Average scaled scores are calculated for each subject. Only pupils that have a scaled score are included in the calculation. Groups have been divided into prior attainment bands both overall and broken down into separate subjects to provide you with different ways to look at differences in performance. 10 Report codes within RAISEonline: KS2.TA, RS2.RWM, KS2.EGPS, KS2.Sci, KS12TransRM,KS12TransW, KS12.SctPro, KS12SctAtt, KS2.List (I) RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 20 To account for uncertainty about the school’s score, 95% confidence intervals are calculated. This information is displayed alongside the reports for reading, mathematics and writing. These charts are ordered by progress score descending, so the group with highest progress score is at the top and the group with lowest progress score is at the bottom: This line represents the bottom 10%. Zero represents the national figure that schools’ results are compared against to calculate the confidence interval. The confidence interval for this group is large, this occurs when the cohort is small, as we have less evidence upon which to say that a progress score is statistically significant. The confidence interval for this group is small, this occurs when the cohort is large, as we have more evidence upon which to say that a progress score is statistically significant. If the upper limit of the confidence interval is lower than the national figure (below 0), then the score is said to be statistically significantly below the national figure. This line represents the top 10%. If the lower limit of the confidence interval is higher than the national figure (above 0), then the score is said to be statistically significantly above the national figure. If the national figure falls within the range of the confidence interval, the results is not statistically significantly different from the national figure. For further information on confidence interval calculations see appendix G. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 21 In addition to the reading, writing and mathematics reports, there are reports for these three subjects combined and for EGPS, as shown below: The EGPS marks are combined before the raw score is mapped to a scaled score. This is additional information on the spelling section of the English test. The spelling test is marked out of 20. These figures 5+, 10+, 15+, 20 refer to actual raw marks. These figures show the percentage of pupils, who achieved that number of marks or more. This column indicates which national comparator has been used (all, same, non). The national comparator for the disadvantaged group is ‘non’, this refers to the national figure for the other (non disadvantaged). If you would like to change the national comparator this can be done using the options drop down in the interactive reports. Key stage 1 to key stage 2 transition tables Key stage 1 to key stage 2 transition tables are available for reading and mathematics, for all pupils and disadvantaged pupils: A separate table includes details for pupils assessed using P scales. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 22 Key stage 2 scatter plots The scatter plots are available for reading, writing and mathematics for analysis of progress and attainment relative to both overall key stage 1 prior attainment and key stage 1 prior attainment in that subject. This is an example of a scatter plot showing pupil progress in reading (y axis) and overall KS1 prior attainment in reading (x axis): Pupils in this area of the graph achieved scores on average higher than those with the same prior attainment. This line represents the point at which the key stage 2 progress score is equal to pupils with the same prior attainment. The further from this line a plot is positioned, the greater the difference between that pupil’s result and the average for pupils with the same prior attainment. Pupils in this area of the graph achieved scores on average lower than those with the same prior attainment. In this example there are three pupils with the same overall key stage 1 prior attainment of 9. For these pupils progress was calculated using the same estimated attainment score, but each has different actual attainment, resulting in a different progress score. Each plot represents an individual. When you hover over a plot in the interactive report it shows that pupil’s detail. If you click on the plot you can drill down to the information for that pupil. The table below the scatter plot summarises the progress of the cohort. Although there are 21 key stage 1 prior attainment groups, rather than display each group seperately they are grouped into six bands: RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 23 In order to calculate progress pupils are allocated to a prior attainment group based on their key stage 1 average point score. The table shows progress for pupils grouped according to their KS1 average point score. Clicking on the cohort number will take you to the pupil list relating to this prior attainment group. This is the average progress score for the 7 pupils who had a prior attainment score between 6.0 and 11.9. This is an example of a scatter plot showing pupil attainment in reading (y axis) and overall key stage 1 prior attainment (x axis): The national line has 21 sections, each one represents the national figure for one of the key stage 1 prior attainment groups. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 The sections representing the national figure are of different length because the range of average point score that they represent varies. For example this section is long as it is the national figure for all pupils who had an average point score of above 21.5. 24 This is an example of a scatter plot showing pupil attainment in reading (y axis) and key stage 1 prior attainment in reading (x axis): Progress scores are calculated in the same way as in the scatter plots showing overall key stage 1 prior attainment. However progress is plotted against prior attainment in reading rather than prior attainment overall. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 25 Key Stage 4 A range of reports show key stage 4 progress and attainment using the new Progress 8 and Attainment 8 accountability measures. Percentile ranks are now included on the summary reports to provide information on the position of a school in the overall distribution. KS4 Progress 8 and Attainment 8 measures Progress 8 is based on a calculation of pupils’ attainment across eight qualifications. The measure of attainment is called Attainment 8. Progress 8 aims to capture the progress a pupil makes from the end of primary school to the end of secondary school. It is a type of value added measure, which means that pupils’ results are compared to the actual achievements of other pupils with the same prior attainment. Attainment 8 measures the achievement of a pupil across eight subjects including mathematics (double weighted) and English (double weighted), three further qualifications that count in the English Baccalaureate (EBacc) measure and three further qualifications that can be GCSE qualifications (including EBacc subjects) or any other non-GCSE qualifications on the DfE approved list. English Element (double weighted) Can include the three highest scores from EBacc qualifications . EBacc Element Maths Element (double weighted) Contains the three highest scores in any three subjects not counted in other slots. Open Element For further information on Progress 8 and Attainment 8 such as approved qualifications, discounting and first entry rules can be found in the DfE document: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/progress-8-school-performancemeasure The new measure is designed to encourage schools to offer a broad and balanced curriculum at key stages 3 and 4. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 26 The interactive reporting enables whole school analyses of Progress 8 and Attainment 8 with the addition of: pupil group analyses dynamic reporting entries into each element of A8 (English, mathematics, EBacc & open), and two types of scatterplots highlighting progress and attainment (hovering will identify each pupil). Further reports are available offering detailed pupil level information (presented as a list) with individual pupil reports available from a drill down accessed through the unique pupil number. Many of these reports have options, grouping and filtering facilities enabling further detailed school self-evaluation. Key stage 4 progress and attainment reports11 The KS4 summary reports compare school figures to the national figures for all and the disadvantaged groups with cohorts dividied by prior attainment. The national comparison for disadvantaged pupils is against the national for other (nondisadvantaged) pupils. For information on key stage 2 prior attainment bands see appendix F. There are separate tables showing cohorts overall and for each element separately. Here is an example of a an overall summary table (KS4.PA8Sum): 11 Report codes within RAISEonline: KS4.Sum, KS4.P8, KS4.P8D, KS4.P8Sct, KS4.A8D, KS4.A8E, KSA8Sct RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 27 A positive score shows that the school Progress 8 score is above the national figure for that group. The difference is calculated by subtracting the national average score for that group from the school figure. A negative score shows that the school Progress 8 score is below the national figure for that group. The national comparator shown for disadvantaged is the national figure for other pupils (nondisadvantaged). These figures represent 95% confidence intervals. For information on the calculations see appendix G. The percentile rank indicates where a school fits into the overall distribution. This is only shown for the top 15% or bottom 15%. The cohort number can be different for Progress 8 and Attainment 8, as pupils with no key stage 2 results are not included in Progress 8, but are included in Attainment 8. Shading on the progress 8 table identifies scores that are statistically significantly above or significantly below national figures. Bright green is used when it falls in the top 10% of schools, bright red for when it falls in the bottom 10 % of schools. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 This represents the difference in attainment in terms of number of grades. To calculate ‘Diff’ you need to divide the difference by 10. This is rounded down to one decimal place. Shading on the attainment 8 tables is used to indicate when a school’s figures are above or below the national figures. It is only applied to attainment by prior attainment. Green shows that the difference is above national, pale green for 0.5<1 grade above national and bright green for 1 or more grades above national. Red shows that the difference is below national, pale red for 0.5 to <1 grade below national and bright red for 1 or more grades below. 28 Here is an example of a Progress 8 report (KS4.P8). The school’s Progress 8 scores are shown alongside progress for each of the different Progress 8 elements separately, so that progress can be examined across the curriculum: Cohort number includes only pupils who have key stage 2 results. There is no baseline to use for pupils without results, so Progress 8 cannot be calculated. If a pupil sits both English language and English literature the higher grade is double-weighted. If only one is taken this will count in the English slot, but will not be double weighted. This displays the progress of pupils who have been in the same school throughout years 10 and 11. Mathematics is double weighted. Only mathematics which also count towards the EBacc can count in this slot. Only qualifications that count towards the EBacc measure are included in this element. Up to three GCSE qualifications and/or nonGCSE qualifications from the approved list. This can include English if it has not been used in the English element. Groups have been divided into prior attainment bands both overall and broken down into English and mathematics to provide you with different ways of analysing performance. See appendix F for information on the KS2 prior attainment bands. The school’s Progress 8 score is the sum of the Progress 8 scores for all pupils divided by the number of pupils to give an average. A Progress 8 score close to zero shows that actual progress is close to other pupils with the same prior attainment. A Progress 8 score above zero shows that actual progress is above that of pupils with the same prior attainment. A negative Progress 8 score shows that actual progress is below that of pupils with the same prior attainment. In the interactive report you can also switch the national comparator to the ‘progress related’ report to view the national Progress 8 score for each pupil group. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 29 To account for uncertainty about the school score, 95% confidence intervals are calculated for Progress 8 and displayed alongside the reports for each element. These charts are ordered by progress score descending, so the group with highest progress score are at the top and the lowest progress score at the bottom. The progress scores are being compared to all pupils. Here is an example: This line represents the bottom 10%. Zero represents the national figure that schools results are compared against to calculate the confidence interval. This line represents the top 10%. If the lower limit of the confidence interval is higher than the national figure (above 0), then the score is said to be significantly above the national figure. The confidence interval for this group is large, this occurs when the cohort is small, as we have less evidence upon which to say that a progress score is statistically significant. If the upper limit of the confidence interval is lower than the national figure (below 0), then the score is said to be significantly below the national figure. If the national figure falls within the range of the confidence interval, the results is not significantly different. The confidence interval for this group is small, this occurs when the cohort is large, as we have more evidence upon which to say that a progress score is statistically significant. For further information on confidence interval calculations see appendix G. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 30 Here is an example of Attainment 8 reports (KS4.A8), the school’s Attainment 8 scores is shown alongside attainment for each of the different Attainment 8 elements separately: This is attainment for both GCSE and non-GCSE used in the Attainment 8 calculation. Additional breakdowns separate GCSE and nonGCSE used in the open element. In the interactive report you can also switch the national comparator to the ‘Attainment related’ report to view the national Attainment 8 score for each pupil group. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 31 Individual Progress 8 scores are shown in a scatter plot to assist with your analysis of progress relative to prior attainment. The x axis represents KS2 prior attainment and the Progress 8 score is on the y axis. With disadvantaged and other nondisadvantaged pupils plotted in different colours you can compare the performance of these groups. This is an example of a progress scatter plot for the English element: Each plot represents an individual. When you hover over a plot in the interactive report it shows that pupil’s detail. If you click on the plot you can drill down to the information for that pupil. Pupils in this area of the graph achieved scores on average higher than those with the same prior attainment. This line represents the point at which the pupils’ Progress 8 score is equal to pupils with the same key stage 2 prior attainment. The further from this line a plot is positioned the greater the difference between that pupils results and the average for pupils with the same prior attainment. Pupils in this area of the graph achieved scores on average lower than those with the same prior attainment. The scatter plot makes it easy to identify outliers. In this example this pupil does not fit the pattern for other pupils. With a progress score of -6 they have achieved 6 grades lower than the average for other pupils with the same prior attainment. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 32 Individual pupil’s scores can also be seen on an attainment scatter plots. The x axis represents key stage 2 prior attainment and the y axis shows attainment. This is an example of an attainment scatter plot for the English element: This red line represents the national average attainment for pupils with the same prior attainment. If a pupil is above the line this shows that their attainment is above the national average. If a pupil is below the line their attainment is below the national average. The further from the line the plot is the greater difference between a pupil’s results and the national average. A B C D E F If a pupil has an attainment of zero this show that they were ungraded at GCSE. G Any outliers like these can have a pronounced impact on the school Progress 8 score. In this example the equivalent GCSE grade is shown alongside the attainment lines on the graph. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 33 For the Attainment 8 elements, entries are also provided. For English and mathematics elements, they show the percentage of pupils entered. For EBacc and open elements, they show the average number of entries out of the maximum possible total of three. This can be seen in the following key stage 4 attainment 8 entries report (KS4.A8E): The entry number is calculated as an average number of entries for the three slots in that element for the cohort. A score of 3 would indicate that all pupils had all three slots filled. Other key stage 4 reports12 In addition to the progress and attainment reports there are a number of other key stage 4 reports. The key stage 4 entries and points report (KS4.Ent) displays data for performance table approved qualfications taken by pupils. The average number of qualifications entered and the average points per qualification by pupil group is shown: The national comparator is for all pupils only. 12 Report codes within RAISEonline:KS24.TransEM, KS4.VA, KS4.Thresh, KS4.GradeD, KS4.Ent, KS4.Subject, KS4.NonPT, KS4.List, KS4.Dest RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 34 The KS4 thresholds report (KS4.Thresh) shows the attainment thresholds across a range of indicators: This shows the percentage of pupils achieving A* to C threshold in English and Mathematics. This shows the percentage of pupils achieving threshold in all of the English Baccalaureate pillars. The percentage of pupils achieving threshold is shown for each of the five pillars shown separately. Key Stage 4 A* to C attainment thresholds 2016 English Baccalaureate subject pillar Cohort all pupils National comparator type same female same disadvantaged English Sch % Sch % Sch % Entries Nat % Entries Nat % Percentage of cohort Entries Percentage of entries Mathematics Nat % Entries Sch % Science Nat % Entries Sch % Languages Nat % Entries Sch % Humanities Nat % Entries same Free School Meals non Children Looked After non SEN with statement or EHC plan all all no SEN same on roll in years 10 & 11 same English additional language Percentage of cohort non other English first language English Baccalaureate Percentage of cohort all male SEN support English & mathematics all all Prior attainment low overall same middle overall same high overall same English low same English middle same English high same mathematics low same mathematics middle same mathematics high same The interactive report displays the percentage of pupils attaining A* to C, this can be changed to A* to G of A* to A using the drop down. For the A* to A report data is only displayed for the EBacc subject pillars. In the interactive report you can also switch the national comparator to the same. See appendix J for more information on threshold calculations. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 35 Sch % Nat % The summary of performance tables approved qualification results (KS4.21). The report shows a breakdown for each subject separately. Below is an example of part of this report: Qualifications are divided into subject families and qualification types; not all students need to record a result in each subject family. These percentages are based on the number of entries out of the KS4 cohort. The points have been used as they represent bottom of grade A, grade C and grade G. Green shading indicates that the schools threshold percentage is significantly above the national value. Blue shading indicates that the schools threshold percentage is significantly below the national value. See appendix K for information on statistical significance calculations. Where a pupil has taken more than one qualification within a subject, the pupil’s best result based on points will be counted regardless of qualification level. If the pupil has two qualifications with the same points, the qualification at the highest level will count. See appendix K for more information on calculations for the summary of performance table approved qualifications. There is a summary of relative performance indicators for performance table approved qualifications (KS4.20). The purpose of the Relative Performance Indicator (RPI) is to compare performance for performance tables approved qualifications across subjects within a school. It is a measure of the difference between attainment of the cohort in a subject and that cohort’s achievement in other subjects. The indicator compares this relative performance within a school with national results. For each pupil, the subject family takes the best of all the results in that subject. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 36 The RPI report includes all performance tables approved qualifications aggregated by subject family. It is not broken down by the level of qualification, for example GCSE, AS level. For a school, the difference between a subject and other subjects is pupils’ mean average difference, within the school, between their best result in a subject family and their best result in “other” subjects. This is the difference between the school difference and the national difference. E.g. 2.9 – 4.9 = -1.9 For science the number in the subject refers to the science pathway. Green shading indicates that the schools score is significantly above the national value. Blue shading indicates that the schools score is significantly below the national value. For information on the significance testing calculations see appendix L. In the interactive report you can use the option box to filter by gender. See appendix L for further information on RPI calculations. For non-performance table approved qualifications there is also a report which shows the number of pupils achieving each grade in non-performance tables approved qualifications. It includes short GCSEs, non-approved iGCSEs, and level 2, 1 and entry level qualifications. The academic and vocational qualifications approved for use in performance tables are listed at: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/school-performance-tables-about-thedata Below is an example of part of this report (KS4.NPTAQ): RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 37 The KS2-KS4 EBacc subject pillar value added (VA) report (KS4.VA) shows progress in the science, languages and humanities subject pillars: For each subject pillar the school score is the sum of the progress scores in that pillar Pupils are included in the cohort only for all pupils entered in the pillar divided by if they were entered in that subject the VA cohort number to give an average. pillar. For example for science this would mean that the pupil must have two science grades. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 38 Data Source Basic Characteristics Absence Exclusion Stability Phonics EYFS End of KS113 Key Stage 213 Key stage 413 January census Data is collected for pupils aged 5-15 as at 31 August 2016. Absence data is recorded in accordance of a pupil's age not by the year group they are in. For non-special schools data is collected one term in arrears through the School Census. Two terms of data is available relating to the autumn and spring terms in the previous academic year. Absence data for special schools is collected annually, three terms data is available for the previous academic year. For non-special schools data is collected one term in arrears through the school census. Around October, two terms of data is available relating to the autumn and spring terms in the previous academic year. Exclusion data for special schools is collected annually. Three terms data is available around March, covering the whole of the previous academic year. Only pupils on roll in national curriculum years 1 to 11 at the date of the January school census (excluding guest or subsidiary registrations) are included in the calculations. If a pupil has left before the census date, they are not included in the calculation. The data is received through the COLLECT system, as currently used for KS1, either through the local authority, or directly from some academies. The Early Years Foundation Stage Profile (EYFSP) is collected annually for all children in the final term of Reception in which the child reaches age five (no later than 30 June in that term). DfE performance tables. DfE performance tables. DfE performance tables. 13 Unvalidated data is based on the same set of data as the checking exercise and will not reflect any amendments submitted to the DfE. The validated data or final data will match performance tables. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 39 Appendix A – Basic Characteristics The percentage in each pupil group is calculated: Number of pupils in that group For % girls/boys, SEN: Number on roll Or a x 100 b For % eligibly for FSM: Number of pupils in reception to year 11. Or For % minority ethnic groups, first language not English: Number of pupils of statutory school age or older. Worked examples: School Z has 245 students registered solely at the school and eight students dually registered, where the school is the main registered base. There are 131 girls registered solely at the school and two girls dually registered, where the school is the main registered base. 133 x 100 = 52.6% 253 245+8, as it includes both solely and dually registered pupils. (1 decimal place) School deprivation indicator A school-level Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) score is calculated for each school based on pupils on roll at the time of the January school census and the IDACI score for each pupil’s postcode. IDACI scores are sourced from the index of multiple deprivation 2015 which scores areas, known as super output areas. Super output areas are blocks of post codes, smaller than ward level. The scale is from 0 to 100, and the lower the figure, the less deprived the locality. The IDACI score should be worked out using the sum of all the IDACI scores divided by the number of students with an IDACI score, formulaically expressed as: RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 40 Number of students with IDACI scores Sum of all the students IDACI scores Where: di c The IDACI score of the i th student The number of students with an IDACI score [The d i in the formula is standard notation, and indicates to use the score of each student (individuals or elements in a discrete data set).] Further information may be found at: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/english-indices-of-deprivation Stability The indicator is calculated using the following steps: Each pupil’s entry year is determined from their January census entry date. This is dependent on their month of entry, starting from a fixed date of July 16 each year. For example, a pupil admitted on or after July 16 2014 was assigned to the 2015 school year, whilst a pupil admitted before July 16 2014 was added to the 2014 school year. The entry month of each pupil is then considered, adjusted for the academic year: For each National Curriculum Year Group (NCYG) within the school, the academic year and month by which time at least 5% of students had joined the school (defined as MinJY & MinJM) is determined. The National Curriculum Year (NCY) of entry for each pupil is worked out. A pupil is then counted as stable if they meet one of the following conditions: 1. Joined school in Year 1 month 1 or earlier. 2. Joined the school in or before MinJM (the month that at least 5% of the NCY cohort had joined by, as above). 3. Joined the school in a month/year that at least 40% of the NCY cohort joined in and a. primary school - A month/year that at least 10 pupils joined in b. secondary school - A month/year that at least 20 pupils joined in. 4. Joined in a year/month or NCY/month combination that meets all of the following criteria: a. has at least 10% of the NCY cohort admission b. has at least 10 entries for a primary school or 20 entries for a secondary school c. is a year/month or NCY/month combination that has seen criteria a & b met more than once across the whole school. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 41 The stability percentage is found by dividing pupils considered stable by all eligible pupils (pupils in years 1 to 11 and with current single or current main dual registration at the school). This percentage is then rounded to 1 d.p. Worked Example A school has cohorts of pupils in NCYGs Reception (R), 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. NCY R 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cohort 45 34 31 53 46 38 32 The pupils in Reception are not included in the calculations. Of the 53 pupils in NCY 3, there are 7 distinct entry month/year combinations: EntryYear 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 EntryMonth 1 3 1 9 1 4 5 EntryNCYear 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 Admissions 19 1 4 1 24 1 3 From this a few observations can be made: The EntryNCYear is derived from the EntryYear. The MinJY for this NCY is 2012 as 19 of 53 pupils had joined by then (19/53 = 36% which easily meets the 5% condition). The MinJM within 2012 is 1 (representing late July, August or September). There is a significant influx of pupils at the beginning of the academic year in NCY 3. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 42 So, checking against the stability criteria (percentage admissions for each month/year shown for ease): EntryYear EntryMonth EntryNCYear Admissions 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 1 3 1 9 1 4 5 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 19 1 4 1 24 1 3 % Admissions 36 2 8 2 45 2 6 Criteria met 1, 2 3 The 19 pupils in the top line - highlighted in yellow – are counted as stable because they have joined in the MinJY and MinJM for the NCY. The 24 pupil in the fifth line – highlighted in green – are counted as stable because over 40% of the cohort (and at least 10 pupils) have joined in that month and year. Of the 32 pupils in NCY 6, there are 8 distinct entry month/year combinations: EntryYear EntryMonth EntryNCYear Admissions 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 1 3 1 7 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 24 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 % Admissions 75 3 6 3 3 3 3 3 Criteria met 2,3 In this case, the vast majority of pupils have joined in early academic 2011. This does not represent joining in Year 1 for these pupils, so criterion 1 is not met. However, this is the MinJY/MinJM for this NCY, so these pupils are counted as stable, without even needing to take % admissions into account. Of the 46 pupils in NCY 4, there are nine distinct entries month/year combinations: EntryYear EntryMonth EntryNCYear Admissions 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2014 2014 1 1 6 6 1 5 8 0 1 1 2 3 3 3 25 1 1 1 13 1 1 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 % Admissions 54 2 2 2 28 2 2 Criteria met 1, 2 1 4 43 2014 2015 11 1 3 4 1 1 2 2 The 26 pupils in the top two lines are counted as stable as they have joined in or before year 1 month 1 in the school. Also, the 13 pupils in the fifth line – highlighted in blue – are counted as stable because they meet criterion 4: There are at least 10 admissions in this NCY/month. There is at least 10% of the total cohort admissions at this time. This NCY/month entry time has happened elsewhere in the school (see NCY 3 admissions table above) where 24 pupils in that year group also joined in NCY 3, EntryMonth 1. This means that the line highlighted in green in the NCY 3 table has also met criterion 4. The intake of pupils in NCY 3, EntryMonth 1 is treated as a standard intake. Criterion 4 can also be met by having a ‘standard’ one-off intake in a particular calendar year/month, but this is not shown here. Small schools will be unlikely to have pupils flagged as stable from criteria 3 & 4, but can still have pupils flagged as stable from criteria 1 & 2, where the bulk of stable pupils come from. For example, a school with nine pupils would never have pupils flagged as stable by meeting: 3. Joined the school in a month/year that at least 40% of the NCY cohort joined in and a. primary school - A month/year that at least 10 pupils joined in b. secondary school - A month/year that at least 20 pupils joined in. But all 9nine pupils could be flagged as stable due to: 1. Joined school in Year 1 Month 1 or earlier So pupils only have to meet one of the conditions 1-4, but to meet condition 4, all three conditions a-c must be met. Glossary of Terms for the Stability measure Cohort – The number of pupils in a particular NCY at a school EntryNCYear – The NCY that a pupil joined the school (e.g. 0 or 1 means in Year 1 or earlier) MinJY – The academic year by which time at least 5% of students had joined the school RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 44 MinJM – The academic month within MinJY by which time at least 5% of students had joined the school MinNCY – A school’s lowest NCY, discounting any year group that has fewer than 10% of the average number in a year for the school Remove? NCYG/NCYear – National Curriculum Year Group NCY N1 – first year of nursery (not included in Stability calculations) NCY N2 – second year of nursery (not included in Stability calculations) NCY R – Reception (not included in stability calculations) Stability – The term defining whether a pupil has been attending the same school since the standard time of admission for the school. RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 45 Appendix B – Absence and exclusion Absence The percentage absence is calculated as Overall absence: number of sessions missed Total number of possible sessions Or Persistent absence: number of enrolments who have missed 10% or more sessions in first two terms a x 100 b Total number of enrolments Worked example: School Z has 277 enrolments; from school records you are able to see that the total number of possible sessions is 84,576. The total number of authorised and unauthorised absences for the year was 5,722. 11 enrolments were persistently absent. Overall absence rate: 5722 x 100 = 6.8% 84576 (1 decimal place) Persistent absence (those missing 10 % or more session across the first two terms) rate: 11 x 100 = 4.0% 277 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 (1 decimal place) 46 Exclusion The percentage exclusion is calculated: Number of fixed term exclusions Or Number of pupils with 1 or more fixed term exclusions Or Number of permanent exclusions a x 100 b For all measures this is the total number of pupils on roll Worked examples School Z has 277 pupils, eight pupils had fixed term exclusions including three who had two; therefore the total number of fixed term exclusions is 11. There were three permanent exclusions. 11 fixed exclusion term 11 x 100 = 3.97% 277 (2 decimal places) 277 pupils on roll 8 pupils with one or more fixed term exclusions 277 pupils on roll 3 permanent exclusions 277 pupils on roll 8 x 100 = 2.89% 277 (2 decimal places) 3 x 100 = 1.08% 277 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 (2 decimal places) 47 Appendix C Phonics The Expected Standard for 2012 to 2016 data years has been 32 out of 40. Disapplied (D) and absent (A) pupils are included in the denominator for calculating the percentage achieving expected standard for phonics but are not included in the marks distribution or the calculation of the average mark. The percentage achieving the expected level is calculated by school: The number of pupils achieving the threshold mark Number of pupils eligible students a x 100 b Worked examples: School Z has 30 pupils in Year 1. One pupil did not take the test (D), and one was absent for the test (A). Twenty two pupils achieved the expected standard, and the percentage achieving the expected standard for phonics is thus: 22 pupils who achieved the expected standard This includes the two pupils that did not take the test 22 x 100 = 73% 30 (to nearest whole number) RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 48 Appendix D – End KS1 Disapplied (D) and absent (A) pupils are included in the denominator for calculating the percentage achieving the standards for end of key stage 1 but are not included in the marks distribution. The percentage achieving the different standards is calculated as follows: The number of pupils achieving the emerging/expected/exce eding standard Number of pupils eligible students a x 100 b Worked example: A school has a cohort of 30 pupils in key stage 1, eight of whom were categorised as disadvantaged. One pupil had been disapplied (A/D) from the teacher assessments; Eight pupils were disadvantaged (Dis). There were 25 pupils assessed as working at the expected standard or above, of whom six were disadvantaged. Of these 25, 15 pupils were assessed as exceeding the expected standard (working at greater depth), of whom four were disadvantaged; four pupils were assessed as working below the expected standard, of whom two were disadvantaged. For this school the key stage 1 summary table would display as shown below: 25/30 X 100 = 83% Cohort School % National % Difference % Cohort School % National % Difference % Diff (no of pupils) A/D 1 All 30 83 Emerging All Dis 4 2 13 25 Expected All Dis 25 6 83 75 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 Dis 8 75 Exceeding All Dis 15 4 50 50 49 Percentages are rounded to the nearest whole number and so may not total exactly 100%. The same table format is used for reading and mathematics also. Attainment shading is displayed for EYFSP groups only. It is applied where the percentage difference from national is equivalent to one or more pupils. For writing, each pupil is grouped by their outcome on the writing early learning goal. For mathematics, each pupil is grouped by the lower of their outcomes on the two mathematics early learning goals. For reading, each pupil is grouped by their outcome on the reading early learning goal. For science, each pupil is grouped by their outcome on the world early learning goal. Pupils are assessed simply as working at the expected standard (EXS) or as not having met the expected standard (HNM). There is no ‘working at greater depth’ category for science in 2016. Transition tables Worked example: Of the 30 pupils in the cohort, 19 had attained expected standard in EYFSP, of whom 15 were working at greater depth at the end of KS1. One pupil was disapplied. Here is an example of a transition table for writing for these pupils: All pupils Key stage 1 writing Expected standard + Greater depth Number of pupils No data Nat Nat No Sch Diff Diff Sch Diff Diff BLW PKF WTS EXS GDS Total No. other No. other data % % no. % % no. % % 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Emerging 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 6 20 writing Expected 0 0 0 0 19 0 19 19 63 Exceeding 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 4 0 0 19 15 23 25 83 EYFS 0 0 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 50 0 0 0 0 15 50 50 Emerging EYFSP to emerging KS1: 4 pupils = 4/30 Emerging EYFSP to expected standard KS1: 6 pupils = 6/30 Emerging EYFSP to greater depth KS1 0 pupils Expected EYFSP to expected standard KS1: 19 pupils = 19/30 Expected EYFSP to greater depth KS1: 15 pupils = 15/30 BLW Below pre-key stage 1 standards PKF Foundations for the expected standard WTS working towards the expected standard EXS GDS working at the expected standard working at greater depth within the expected standard You can find a table of comparators here: https://www.raiseonline.org/documentlibrary/ViewDocumentLibrary.aspx > EYFS to KS4 inspection dashboard - general guidance RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 51 Appendix E – KS2 progress In order to calculate a schools KS2 progress you need to calculate pupil progress at KS2. Average point score (APS) at KS1 is used to group pupils for the KS2 progress calculation. From 2016, a pupil’s reading and writing results are combined to give an English component. This is combined with the mathematics to give the KS1 APS. Therefore English and mathematics are equally weighted. Here is the method of APS calculation for individual pupils: Reading score APS = Mathematics score Writing score (r + w)/ 2 + m 2 An average scaled score is calculated for all pupils in the same prior attainment group. KS2 progress = actual attainment – average scaled score Worked example: James has an average key stage 1 score of 17: Pupil James Reading Writing Mathematics points Points Points 21 17 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 15 APS (21 17) / 2 15 17.0 2 52 Based on this APS James will be grouped with pupils with the same prior attainment. James achieved a raw score of 110 in the mathematics test this is converted to a scaled score of 120: A raw score of 110 is converted into a scaled score of 120. Information on scaled score at key stage 2 including conversion tables: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/scaled-scores-at-key-stage-2 The national scaled score in mathematics for pupils with an average key stage 1 score of 17 is 117. James is grouped with other pupils with APS of 17 James James 120 120 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 The national average scaled score in mathematics for pupils with an APS score of 17 is 117 53 progress score = 120 – 117 = +3 In this example, James has met the ‘expected standard’ (a scaled score of 100 or more). He has done better than other pupils with the same key stage 1 attainment and, therefore, has a positive progress score. James is one of 60 pupils in his school’s key stage 2 cohort. These pupils have the following mathematics progress scores: The school’s mathematics progress score is calculated by adding up the individual pupil progress scores and dividing by the number of pupils: 132/60= +2.2 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 54 Appendix F – Prior attainment bands The following table shows pupils are placed how these bands are calculated: Prior attainment band Key stage 1 prior attainment Key stage 2 prior attainment Low Average points < 12 Average points < 24 Middle 12 <= Average points < 18 24 <= Average points < 30 High 18 <= Average points 30 <= Average points (fine points) Appendix G - Confidence intervals Confidence intervals are a measure of the statistical precision of an estimate and show the range of uncertainty around the estimated figure. The data shown in RAISEonline reflects the attainment or progress of the pupils sitting exams or tests on a particular day. The range of uncertainty reflected by the confidence intervals allows for the fact that a different group of students would attain slightly different results. The size of the confidence interval is determined by the number of pupils and the variability of their results; smaller school cohorts will widen the intervals, as we have less evidence upon which to say that a result is statistically significant. The same methodology is used for both key stage 2 and key stage 4 confidence intervals. The critical value for 95% confidence interval The size of the confidence interval for the school CI s 1.96 N The standard deviation of the progress scores for all eligible pupils nationally ns The square root of the number of eligible pupils that belong to the school RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 55 Appendix H – Progress 8 In order to calculate Progress 8 you need to calculate Attainment 8. Here is a worked example showing the calculation of a pupil’s Attainment 8 score: 7 + 7 = 14 This is the mathematics element and therefore is double weighted. This can be used in the open element as it wasn’t used in the English element. 8 + 8 = 16 This is double weighted as the pupil has taken both language and literature, but this is the higher of two English results. These are the highest results that can be used for the EBacc element. Although AS French has lower points as it is a higher level qualification it counts. Of the remaining qualifications to make up the Progress 8 score this has the lowest number of points and therefore hasn’t been used in the open element. 14 + 16 + 6 + 7 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 6 = 67 Maths element English element EBacc element Open element Dividing the Attainment 8 score by 10 gives a pupil’s average grade. In this case it is 6.7, between GCSE grades A and B. Calculating Progress 8: A pupil’s Progress 8 score is defined as their Attainment 8 score, minus their estimated Attainment 8 score: Progress = actual Attainment 8 score – estimated Attainment 8 score RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 56 The estimated Attainment 8 score is the average Attainment 8 score of all pupils nationally with the same prior attainment at KS2. Here is a worked example of the Progress 8 calculation: There is a ready reckoner in the RAISEonline library to allow you to calculate KS2 average fine level. The national average Attainment 8 score for pupils with the same prior attainment. These estimates can be obtained from the ‘Progress 8 measures 2016, 2017 and 2017’ document in the RAISEonline library. The difference is divided by 10 to essentially calculate an average difference per qualification, 67-59.32= +7.68/10= 0.77 The school’s Progress 8 score is the mean average of the pupils’ Progress 8 scores Pupil # P8 score 1 2 … 142 +0.77 -0.2 … +1.1 Sum +36.50 36.50/142 = 0.26 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 57 Appendix J – Thresholds The percentage of pupils at the end of key stage 4 who have achieved the criteria for the threshold. The thresholds included on RAISEonline are: A* to C in English and mathematics A* to G in English and mathematics A* to C in English Baccalaureate A* to G in English Baccalaureate A* to A in EBacc subject pillars A* to C in EBacc subject pillars A* to G in EBacc subject pillars The percentage achieving the threshold is calculated: The number of pupils achieving the threshold Total number of pupils in the KS4 cohort for English and mathematics and overall EBacc. For science, languages and humanities it is the number of pupils entered. a x 100 b Worked example: There are 232 pupils at key stage 4 in school Z, of those there were 225 were entered in both English and mathematics. 135 of these pupils have achieved A* to C grades in English and mathematics. The 135 pupils who achieved the threshold This includes the whole cohort regardless of whether they were entered in both English and mathematics 135 x 100 = 58% 232 (to nearest whole number) RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 58 Appendix K - Summary of performance tables approved qualification results for all pupils The summary report includes information on all performance tables approved qualifications examinations taken by students at the end of key stage 4. It does not include non-approved qualifications such as short course GCSEs. The following indicators are produced at school and national level for each of the subject headings: Number of entries; Number of entries as a percentage of the overall cohort; Percentage of entries achieving 49 points or above; Percentage of entries achieving 37 points or above; Percentage of entries achieving 8 points or above; Percentage of entries resulting in 0 points; Average points score per entry. Significance tests are performed against the corresponding national data. Significance tests are performed against each of the four school level threshold indicators in comparison with the respective national level value. Green shading indicates that the school value is significantly above the national value. Blue shading indicates that the school value is significantly below the national value. A 2 tailed 1-sample z-test on proportions is used to assess whether a school’s threshold score is statistically significantly different to the National threshold score. The test statistic is calculated using the following formula: p s pn > 1.96 then Sig+ p n 1 p n ns ns p s pn < -1.96 then Sig p n 1 p n Where: ps pn ns Conditions: School’s proportion for threshold between the values 0 and 1 i.e. divide percentage by 100 National proportion for threshold between the values 0 and 1 i.e. divide percentage by 100 The school’s cohort n s p n 5 and n s (1 p n ) 5 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 59 Appendix L – RPIs for performance table approved qualifications Pupils that have results in only one subject family and pupils without results in that subject family are excluded. This is the sum of individual pupil difference scores. To calculate individual pupil difference scores take a pupil’s best score in that subject family and subtract average best score in the other subject families. School difference calculation: E n f 1 Ds k s E so k n sc Number of pupils who are included in the subject family and at least one other subject. Es E so Ds nsc k is the pupil’s best score in subject family s is the pupil’s average best point score in subject families other than s is the school’s average difference between pupils’ best score in subject family s and those same pupils’ best scores in other subject families, for pupils who have results in subject family s is the number of pupils in the school who have results in subject family s , who also have results in at least one other subject represents all subjects except s The national difference between a subject and other subjects: As with the school average difference, but using all students nationally. This is the sum of individual pupil difference scores nationally. E n f 1 Ns RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 k s E so k nnat Number of pupils nationally who are included in the subject family and at least one other subject. 60 Ns nnat k is the national average difference between students’ best score in subject family s and those same students’ best scores in other subject families, for students who have results in subject family s is the number of students nationally who have results in subject family s , who also have results in at least one other subject Represents all subjects except s Significance testing: Significance testing is applied to the Relative Performance Indicator. Green shading indicates the score is significantly above the National score for that subject. Blue shading indicates the score is significantly below the National for that subject. RPI s t then Sig+ s n 1 sc RPI s t then Sig s n 1 sc RPI s s nsc t is the Relative Performance Indicator for subject family s is the standard deviation of the difference between students’ performance in subject s and their other subjects is the number of students in the school who have results in subject family s , who also have results in at least one other subject is the value of the standard t-distribution for n of nsc . Where nsc is over 120, this is taken as 1.96 Conditions: nsc 1 and s 0 The first entry rules will have been applied by the DfE before Ofsted receives the data for this report. The DfE’s guidance document explaining the discounting rules may be found in our Library > Further details of the revised performance tables guidance, discount rules and early entry guidance > 2016 discounting guidance. The aggregations in this report differ from those in the summary of performance tables approved qualification results for 2016 (KS4.21, and for most schools Table 4.1.11 in the summary report). Worked example: RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 61 Taking the English subject cluster as an example: A pupil has taken GCSE in English and attained and A grade which carries 52 points and also an AS level, attaining a grade C which carries 52.5 points. It is therefore the AS level which counts in the RPI and subject summary reports. At this sample school, 40 pupils entered GCSE English and 10 of those also entered AS level English. The aggregated points for English used to calculate the RPI measure are a mixture of GCSE and AS level points. Using English as an example the following steps are taken to calculate RPI figures: 1) Calculate the APS for pupils in the school taking a performance tables approved qualification in the English subject family; 2) Calculate the APS in all other subjects for those pupils who took a performance tables approved qualification in the English subject family; 3) Subtract 2) from 1) to give the school difference; 4) Perform the same calculation with all pupils nationally to provide National Difference; 5) RPI is equal to 3) minus 4); 6) Calculate, with 95% confidence, whether or not the difference between attainment in English and attainment in other subjects taken by pupils with a performance tables approved qualification in English in the school is significantly different from the national picture. 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You may reuse this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visit www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence, write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: [email protected]. This publication is available at www.gov.uk/government/organisations/ofsted. Interested in our work? You can subscribe to our monthly newsletter for more information and updates: http://eepurl.com/iTrDn. Piccadilly Gate Store Street Manchester M1 2WD T: 0300 123 1231 Textphone: 0161 618 8524 E: [email protected] W: www.gov.uk/ofsted No. © Crown copyright 2016 RAISEonline methodology guidance – January 2017 63
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