LETTERS PUBLISHED ONLINE: 21 OCTOBER 2012 | DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1615 Linking the historic 2011 Mississippi River flood to coastal wetland sedimentation Federico Falcini1,2,3 , Nicole S. Khan1 , Leonardo Macelloni4 , Benjamin P. Horton1 , Carol B. Lutken4 , Karen L. McKee5 , Rosalia Santoleri2 , Simone Colella2 , Chunyan Li6 , Gianluca Volpe2 , Marco D’Emidio4 , Alessandro Salusti1,7 and Douglas J. Jerolmack1 * Wetlands in the Mississippi River deltaic plain are deteriorating1 in part because levees and control structures starve them of sediment2–4 . In spring 2011 a record-breaking flood brought discharge on the lower Mississippi River to dangerous levels, forcing managers to divert up to 3,500 m3 s−1 of water to the Atchafalaya River Basin5 . Here we use fieldcalibrated satellite data to quantify differences in inundation and sediment-plume patterns between the Mississippi and Atchafalaya River. We assess the impact of these extreme outflows on wetland sedimentation, and use in situ data collected during the historic flood to characterize the Mississippi plume’s hydrodynamics and suspended sediment. We show that a focused, high-momentum jet emerged from the leveed Mississippi, and delivered sediment far offshore. In contrast, the plume from the Atchafalaya was more diffuse; diverted water inundated a large area, and sediment was trapped within the coastal current. The largest sedimentation, of up to several centimetres, occurred in the Atchafalaya Basin despite the larger sediment load carried by the Mississippi. Sediment accumulation was lowest along the shoreline between the two river sources. We conclude that river-mouth hydrodynamics and wetland sedimentation patterns are mechanistically linked, providing results that are relevant for plans to restore deltaic wetlands using artificial diversions2–4,6–8 . Protecting and expanding coastal wetlands is vital for ecosystem services of the Mississippi River Delta9–12 , and harnessing natural processes of wetland building using the Mississippi River and its sediments is an essential component of restoration plans2–4 . The only portion of the delta experiencing significant expansion of coastal wetland at present is at the mouth of the Atchafalaya River (Fig. 1a), where a higher mineral (that is, non-organic) sediment concentration3 and hydrodynamic factors8 allow sufficient sediment deposition6 to outpace subsidence and sea-level rise13 . The recently released 2012 Coastal Master Plan14 proposes river diversions and channel realignment to divert sediment and fresh water from the Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River into adjacent basins, to reconnect the river to delta wetlands. Successful design and implementation of such measures require an understanding of diverted sediment movement and deposition, especially during high-water events when the potential sediment load is greatest. The Mississippi River flood of spring 2011 was one of the largest on record5,15 . Both the Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River exhibited elevated suspended sediment loads (Fig. 1d). Floodwater discharge (Qw ) at the Old River Control Structure—the location where the Mississippi River bifurcates into the Atchafalaya and Mississippi channels—crested at a value of ∼20,000 m3 s−1 for the period of 14–31 May 2011 (ref. 15). To relieve pressure on levees along the downstream portion of the Mississippi River in Baton Rouge and New Orleans, the Morganza Spillway (Fig. 1a) was opened on 14 May 2011 for the first time in almost 40 years. At peak flooding, 3, 500 m3 s−1 of water was being diverted to the west into the Atchafalaya Basin15 , flooding the swamps and marshes along the entire length of the Atchafalaya River (Supplementary Information). Although both the Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River channels had obvious sediment-laden plumes emanating from their mouths, the differences in plume patterns and extent of inundation were striking (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Figs S2 and S3). We performed time-series analysis of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua satellite data, calibrated using field measurements (Supplementary Information). The Mississippi River— whose floodwaters upstream were completely contained within artificial levees—exhibited narrow and focused jets of sediment-laden water, especially from Southwest Pass, which penetrated the coastal current with limited mixing16–20 for the duration of the flood (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Fig. S8). The intentionally flooded Atchafalaya Basin inundated a ∼100-km-wide coastal zone, and sediment from its broad plume seemed to be trapped in the nearshore zone for four weeks, where it thoroughly mixed with marine waters (Fig. 1a–c and Supplementary Fig. S8). The diffuse nature of the Atchafalaya River plume may also have been enhanced by the shallow depth of the receiving bay, which would increase bottom friction compared with the Mississippi River. We expected greater wetland sedimentation over a broad area in the Atchafalaya Basin, from both direct deposition by floodwaters and indirect deposition through coastal reworking of the plume (Fig. 1a–c; Supplementary Figs S2 and S8). To test these ideas we conducted a sedimentation survey of 45 sites by helicopter across the Mississippi Birdsfoot, Barataria, Terrebonne and Atchafalaya basin wetlands during 21–27 June 2011 (Fig. 2). Shallow sediment cores (5 cores per site) were extracted from the marsh surface at a consistent distance (5 m) from waterways. The surface sediment layer was presumed to be a recent deposit on the basis of distinguishing features such as lack of plant roots and different colour and consistency from underlying 1 Department of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104, USA, 2 Istituto di Scienze dell’ Atmosfera e del Clima, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Rome 00133, Italy, 3 St Anthony Falls Laboratory, and National Center for Earth-surface Dynamics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55414, USA, 4 Mississippi Mineral Resources Institute, University of Mississippi, University, Mississippi 38677, USA, 5 US Geological Survey, National Wetlands Research Center, Lafayette, Louisiana 70506, USA, 6 Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, School of the Coast and Environment, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70803, USA, 7 Dipartimento Scienze Geologiche, Roma Tre, 00146 Rome, Italy. *e-mail: [email protected]. NATURE GEOSCIENCE | VOL 5 | NOVEMBER 2012 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. 803 NATURE GEOSCIENCE DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1615 LETTERS a Louisiana Mississippi Morganza Spillway Baton Rouge M iss iss Lake Pontchartrain ive y ala iR haf ipp Atc r New Orleans Bonnet Carre aR ive + 30° N 92° W r Belle Chasse NE1 Mississippi River Birdsfoot Delta Atchafalaya Bay NE2 NE3 SE1 SE2 SE3 SW SE4 SE5 P2-3 Pass 1 P3-3 Pass 4 50 km Hydrographic/current meter stations Continuous current meter transects continuous current meter transects Atchafalaya River 29.6 50 Mississippi River 89.2 80 89.4 60 40 30 29.3 20 40 89.6 Distance (km) 29.4 Distance (km) Latitude (° N) 29.5 Longitude (° W) b 29.2 20 10 89.8 29.1 30 Apr. 16 May 31 May 5 16 Jun. 0 01 Jul 30 Apr. 75 900 31 May d 3,500 3.6 Mississippi River QW 3.2 Latitude MR AR Longitude 90° W 89° W Longitude 360 320 2.4 280 2.0 240 1.6 200 160 0.8 91° W 400 2.8 1.2 92° W SSC 0.4 Apr. 15 SSC (mg l¬1) Qw (m3 s¬1 × 104) 30° N 29° N 0 01 Jul. 16 Jun. 150 2,200 SSC (mg l¬1) c Atchafalaya River 16 May 120 Apr. 30 May 15 May 30 Jun. 14 Jun. 29 Figure 1 | Mississippi and Atchafalaya river plume patterns during the 2011 flood. a, MODIS ocean colour image on 1 June 2011 showing the suspended sediment pattern along the coast; boat survey locations and points of interest are indicated. b, Hovmöller plots of SSC (mg l−1 ) from field-calibrated MODIS Aqua (Supplementary Information) along cross-plume transects of the Atchafalaya (left) and Mississippi (right) rivers, indicated on 1 May–31 July, 2011 (c). c, Cumulative SSC over the same period as in b. Values on the top (bottom) side of the colour bar refer to b (c). d, US Geological Survey gauge data of daily discharge (Qw (m3 s−1 ), lines) and SSC (mg l−1 ; symbols) for the Mississippi River at Belle Chasse, Louisiana and the Atchafalaya River at Morgan City, Louisiana. SSC data for the Atchafalaya River were collected at Simmesport, Louisiana. Note that sediment load, Qs = Q∗w SSC. 804 NATURE GEOSCIENCE | VOL 5 | NOVEMBER 2012 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. NATURE GEOSCIENCE DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1615 a LETTERS 29° 40' N 29° 20' N Terrebonne Atchafalaya 150 Barataria 29° N 50 < 0.5 0.5 - 2.5 > 2.5 28° 40' N 0 12.5 25 50 75 100 Mississippi River (Birdsfoot) Delta km 91° W 90° W 0 89° W Longitude Average accumulation (g cm¬2) b 100 Average depth (cm) SSC (mg l¬1) Latitude 200 10 5 0 91.6 91.1 90.6 90.1 89.6 Longitude (decimal degrees) 89.1 Figure 2 | Spatial distribution of sediment during the 2011 flood. a, Locations, and measured recent sediment accumulation, from shallow cores along the delta shoreline (circles), merged with a map of SSC on 1 June 2011 derived from field-calibrated MODIS Aqua data. b, Recent sediment accumulation (±s.d.) at each sampling site, calculated using the average thickness (n = 5) and bulk density (n = 2) of the flood sediment layer. sediments. The thickness of the surface sediment layer varied from 0.0 to 8.3 cm, with a coast-wide average of 1.5 cm. These sediments were composed of moderately sorted fine silt (median value from all basins, 13.4 mm) with a low organic content (10 ± 1%) and moderate bulk density (0.60 ± 0.05 g cm−3 ), features that did not vary significantly across basins (Supplementary Table S2). Using sediment thickness and bulk density, we calculated that recent sediment accumulation was greatest in the Atchafalaya (1.61 ± 0.96 g cm−2 , n = 14), supporting expectations of greater potential contribution of sediment to wetland accretion (Fig. 2). Recent accumulation in the Birdsfoot Delta was smaller but still substantial (1.14±0.78 g cm−2 , n = 9), showing that Mississippi River sediment reached some marsh areas through small channels or deposition from its spatially restricted coastal plume (Fig. 2). Much less sediment accumulated in the Terrebonne (0.42 ± 0.18 g cm−2 , n = 14) and Barataria (0.34±0.22 g cm−2 , n = 8) basin wetlands, located farthest from the rivers. The correspondence between zones of high shoreline deposition, and coastal SSC patterns identified from satellite data (Fig. 2), suggests plume-derived wetland deposition. Recent sediments in the Atchafalaya and Birdsfoot basins were comparable to the underlying deposits in terms of bulk density and grain size (Supplementary Table S2), but contained a greater abundance of centric diatoms, which are planktonic forms commonly found in the water column21 . Underlying sediment was dominated by pennate taxa typical of benthic environments21 (Supplementary Fig. S9). The ratio of centric/pennate diatoms in the surface sediment was 127% higher than in the underlying layer in the Atchafalaya and Birdsfoot basin sites, but was only 23% higher in the Terrebonne and Barataria basins. This finding supports the interpretation that recent accumulation in the Atchafalaya River and Mississippi River resulted from deposition of suspended sediment, either from overbank flooding or an ocean-mixed plume. The former is more likely the case for sites farther inland, whereas the latter probably dominated for coastal locations (Fig. 2). We also observed these sediments to be relatively enriched in diatom species indicative of low-salinity environments (Supplementary Information), supporting riverine influence. The similarity in physical characteristics of recent flood sediments and underlying deposits, and the low organic content of all samples, indicate that mineral sediment of river origin has been a dominant contributor to building and maintaining these coastal wetlands. To better understand the Mississippi River plume dynamics during this extraordinary event, and to calibrate satellite data, we carried out oceanographic transects off the Birdsfoot Delta during the peak of the flood (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Figs S4 and S5). Although studies have used satellites to track Mississippi plume dynamics during floods22 , in situ hydrographic measurements during such a large flood have not been conducted. Our transect surveys captured vertical profiles of flow velocity, temperature, salinity, SSC and grain-size distributions, allowing us to characterize the hydrodynamics of the effluent plume and to construct a sediment budget for the Mississippi River flood outflow (Fig. 3). Results from the perimeter of the Birdsfoot Delta showed three main freshwater outflows corresponding to the Southwest, Southeast and Northeast passes, each distinguished by salinity < 15 PSU, temperatures cooler than ambient (Supplementary Information) and SSC > 40 mg l−1 . We estimated a total sediment discharge of Qs = Q∗w SSC ∼ 3.9 × 103 kg s−1 , in agreement with values reported from an upstream gauge (Fig. 1d). A Southwest Pass survey showed that its jet was easily recognized, even 50 km offshore, as a persistent core of high current velocity and SSC (Fig. 3). To relate jet dynamics to sediment suspension, we computed the Rouse number—essentially the ratio of particle settling velocity (vs ) to fluid shear velocity (u∗ )—for each measurement station. We expected sediment to be well suspended for vs /(ku∗ ) < 2.5 (ref. 23), where k is von Kármán’s constant. Shear velocity and particle settling velocity were estimated from current meter and grain-size data, respectively, collected off the three study passes. The typical range of mineral suspended sediment was 0.02–0.2 mm in diameter, corresponding to representative values of vs /(ku∗ ) of 0.016–2.262, respectively. This ratio was constant from the mouth of Southwest Pass up to ∼40 km offshore, confirming that all sediments were suspended within this narrow river jet (Supplementary Information). The exceptionally coherent plume generated by Southwest Pass—the largest of the Mississippi River outflows—penetrated a ∼1 m s−1 northwest-trending coastal current (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Fig. S8). The absence of a littoral sediment plume and associated sedimentation along the Terrebonne and Barataria shoreline (Fig. 2 and Supplementary Fig. S8) corroborates that the Southwest Pass flood plume was insensitive to coastal processes. To examine the physical basis for these dynamics, we calculate the potential vorticity for this plume using the bulk parameter derived in ref. 8: 5c = UC/(hW ), where U (m s−1 ) and C (mg l−1 ) are scale quantities for jet velocity and SSC, respectively, and h (m) and W (m) are channel outlet depth and width, respectively (Supplementary NATURE GEOSCIENCE | VOL 5 | NOVEMBER 2012 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. 805 NATURE GEOSCIENCE DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1615 LETTERS a b A’ SSC (mg l¬1) A 60 29.4° N A 89.5° W 15 20 89° W 0 Velocity contours: 1.2, 0.8, 0.4 m s¬1 29.4° N 40 5 89° W 10 15 20 20 10 SSC (mg l¬1) 0 80 Velocity contours: 1.2, 0.8, 0.4 m s¬1 60 29.4° N 40 29.2° N 29° N 15 28.8° N 28.6° N 0 C’ 20 0 C C’ 89.5° W 89° W 5 Section distance (km) 10 15 Section distance (km) 20 Ocean data view 0 89.5° W 150 Ocean data view B’ Ocean data view 28.6° N 20 B Ocean data view 29° N 100 C 5 60 28.8° N 0 80 29.2° N 15 d B’ h (m) h (m) 10 50 20 Section distance (km) SSC (mg l¬1) B 5 40 Ocean data view Ocean data view 0 60 NE 20 10 Longitude c SE SW 28.8° N 28.6° N 40 40 29° N 80 SW h (m) Latitude SE 29.2° N 80 40 20 5 NE A’ 40 0 20 0 Figure 3 | SSC (mg l−1 ) and velocity (m s−1 ) profiles around the Mississippi River Birdsfoot Delta (1 June 2011). a, Map indicating a large-scale SSC vertical transect A–A’ around the Birdsfoot Delta; Southwest, Southeast and Northeast passes are highlighted. b, SSC vertical profile along transect A–A’; three main sediment outflows are indicated. c, SSC and velocity profiles along transect B–B’ offshore of Southwest Pass; inset shows location. d, SSC and velocity profiles along transect C–C’. Information). High potential vorticity inputs to the ocean—such as cold-wind-generated filaments24 or bottom-influenced jets25,26 — tend to conserve their potential vorticity along the direction of flow, producing coherent self-sharpening jets24–28 and, in the case of sediment plumes, localized deposition at jet margins8 . We found that offshore potential vorticity values were comparable to that at the channel mouth (that is, potential vorticity was conserved): 5c ∼ 2.49 × 10−5 , 2.24 × 10−5 , 2.14 × 10−5 kg m−4 s−1 , for the Southwest Pass, Pass 1 and Pass 4 transects, respectively (Figs 1a and 3 and Supplementary Table S1). Data indicate that the Southwest Pass plume indeed behaved as a self-sharpening jet, a class of flows known to experience limited mixing with ambient waters27,28 (Figs 1 and 3). The large momentum flux through a relatively narrow channel outlet, and the absence of strong frictional effects, seem to be responsible for the lack of interaction between the Southwest Pass plume and the coastal current (Supplementary Fig. S8). This pattern is in contrast to the Atchafalaya sediment plume that shifted direction following ocean currents (Supplementary Fig. S8). Our analysis suggests that river-mouth hydrodynamics influenced sediment deposition patterns during the spring 2011 flood. The historic Morganza Spillway opening simulated a more natural flooding scenario in the Atchafalaya River: this diffuse plume— influenced by coastal currents and winds—delivered substantial sediment over a broad area, both directly to wetlands through inundation and to the nearshore zone where tides and currents could potentially carry it onshore. Although the Mississippi River carried a larger sediment load than the Atchafalaya River, it produced less sedimentation. Flow confinement promotes delivery of vast quantities of sediment far offshore, where it cannot build a land platform to support wetlands. If the Mississippi River plume 806 was diffuse, its sediments would probably have been carried shoreward with the coastal current to produce substantial deposition at Barataria and Terrebonne. To address this problem, Mississippi River diversions are proposed upstream of the Birdsfoot where sediment would be delivered into shallower receiving basins3,4,29 not currently fed by the Mississippi River at present. Although the ultimate success of such diversions will depend on a variety of factors7,30 , our work shows how fine sediments carried in a flood and diverted to shallow marine settings could contribute substantially to marsh sedimentation. This finding complements a recent study demonstrating significant sand deposition in the Bonnet Carre Spillway resulting from diversion during the same flood29 . Engineered diversions could harness the full spectrum of river sediment to mitigate wetland loss in key areas. Methods Water discharge and SSC data were obtained from US Geological Survey surface-water time series (National Water Information System; http://la.water. usgs.gov/MississippiRiverFlood2011.html/, accessed 12 July 2012) over the range from 1 April to 30 June 2011. These data were collected by automatic recorders and manual measurements at field installations. Satellite ocean true-colour images were obtained from the MODIS. We employed MODIS images processed by the Institute of Marine Remote Sensing of the University of South Florida (http://imars.marine. usf.edu/, accessed 5 October 2011). Satellite SSC data were obtained using processed MODIS Level-1A products, by following a procedure for estimating suspended load from remote-sensing reflectance high-resolution band 1 at 645 nm. MODIS images were downloaded through the NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Internet servers OceanColor Web (http://oceandata.sci.gsfc.nasa. gov/, accessed 16 July 2012). Coastal currents were examined using nowcast results from the South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico Circulation Model, which is developed, operated and maintained by the Ocean Observing and Modeling Group of the Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at North Carolina State University (http://omglnx6.meas.ncsu.edu/sabgom_nfcast/, accessed 13 July NATURE GEOSCIENCE | VOL 5 | NOVEMBER 2012 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. NATURE GEOSCIENCE DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1615 2012). Satellite sea surface temperature data were recorded by the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer sensor. We used sea surface temperature maps provided by the Earth Scan Laboratory, Coastal Studies Institute of the Louisiana State University (http:// www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/AVHRR/, accessed 5 January 2012). For a full description of the methods, see Supplementary Information. Received 13 August 2012; accepted 24 September 2012; published online 21 October 2012 References 1. Couvillion, B. R. et al. US Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Map 3164, scale 1:265,000, 12 p. pamphlet (2011). 2. Day, J. W. et al. Restoration of the Mississippi Delta: Lessons from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Science 315, 1679–1684 (2007). 3. Kim, W. et al. Is it feasible to build new land in the Mississippi River Delta? Eos Trans. AGU 90, 373–374 (2009). 4. Paola, C. et al. Natural processes in delta restoration: Application to the Mississippi Delta. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 3, 67–91 (2011). 5. http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/bcarre/floodfight.asp. 6. Blum, M. D. & Roberts, H. H. 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G. & Scott, R. K. Jet sharpening by turbulent mixing. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 754–770 (2011). 29. Nittrouer, J. A. et al. Mitigating land loss in coastal Louisiana by controlled diversion of Mississippi River sand. Nature Geosci. 5, 534–537 (2012). 30. Day, J. W. et al. Vegetation death and rapid loss of surface elevation in two contrasting Mississippi delta salt marshes: The role of sedimentation, autocompaction and sea-level rise. Ecol. Eng. 37, 229–240 (2011). Acknowledgements This work was supported by NSF-RAPID awards (EAR-1140269; OCE-1140307), a NOAA grant (NA11OAR4310101) and the University of Pennsylvania’s Benjamin Franklin Fellowship, and received further logistical support from the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory (EAR-0722476). The CNR WORK was partially financially supported by the European Commission MyOcean-2 Project grant agreement (283367). We thank C. Vervaeke and A. Constantin for assistance with the helicopter survey and T. Touchet, M. Enache, M. Mills and T. Dura for assistance with sediment and diatom analyses. Field support from the crew of R/V Acadiana, C. Zhang, P. Dash, A. and A. Kolker is very much appreciated. We also thank V. Forneris for the collection of L-1A data products. Any use of trade, product or firm names is for descriptive purposes alone and does not imply endorsement by the US Government. This paper is a contribution to IGCP project 588 (Preparing for coastal change) and PALSEA. Author contributions F.F. performed the satellite analysis, developed the potential vorticity theory for suspended sediment and coordinated the overall study. N.S.K. contributed to collection, analysis and presentation of the wetland sediment and diatom data. L.M. and C.B.L. contributed to the overall study and led the boat survey. B.P.H. contributed to the overall study approach and participated in data interpretation. M.D. and A.S. performed the hydrographic and suspended sediment data acquisition and analysis. K.L.M. contributed to the overall study approach and led the wetland sediment survey. R.S., S.C. and G.V. contributed to the processing of satellite data, subsequent analysis and presentation. C.L. contributed to the collection of river-mouth flow velocity profiles, subsequent data analysis and presentation. D.J.J. supervised the research, participated in data interpretation and led the writing of the main text. All authors contributed to the writing of this manuscript. Additional information Supplementary information is available in the online version of the paper. Reprints and permissions information is available online at www.nature.com/reprints. Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to D.J.J. Competing financial interests The authors declare no competing financial interests. NATURE GEOSCIENCE | VOL 5 | NOVEMBER 2012 | www.nature.com/naturegeoscience © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. 807
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