EXPERT OPINION MAY 2017 MEETING TODAY’S ASSET MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES Lionel Paquin CEO Lyxor Asset Management Active management is under pressure as never before as a result of macroeconomic, competitive and regulatory challenges. But active input into clients’ organisational set-up, fund structures and investment decision-making remains vital. The successful active manager of the future is likely to be defined as something more than a provider of superior performance. Instead, a successful manager will be a partner with the ability both to enhance returns and to avoid unnecessary costs on behalf of its clients. In practice, this will mean the provision of a full fiduciary, open architecture service, covering all the elements of the investment value chain. THE TRIPLE CHALLENGE FOR ACTIVE MANAGERS SPEED READ Active managers are facing three existential challenges. Asset managers face a triple challenge as a result of macroeconomic, competitive and regulatory challenges. The first is macroeconomic and results from the emergency measures put in place by central banks after the 2008/09 financial crisis. Active asset management should be seen as complementary to passive management, not in opposition to it. Alternative funds offer an important additional source of returns in an environment of depressed interest rates and low nominal return expectations from traditional asset classes. Clients are looking for an investment partner who can offer a full fiduciary service. Reductions in official interest rates to near-zero levels, combined with the quantitative easing policies in place across major economies, have provided an unsurprising boost to equity and bond prices. But a side-effect of these unconventional monetary policies has been an unwelcome reduction in the dispersion of global markets. Dispersion is a mathematical measure of how differently individual asset classes perform with respect to the global average, and it has been around a third lower post-crisis than pre-2008. In other words, the benefits of diversification, an important tool for the global asset allocator, have been reduced by quantitative easing policies. If diversification has accurately been described as the only free lunch in investment, the portion sizes have now been reduced. REDUCED DIVERSIFICATION BENEFITS ACROSS ASSET CLASSES Fed total assets ($ Tr) 5.0 Cross asset dispersion 2.5 2.0 4.0 1.5 3.0 Average dispersion 2000- 2007 1.0 2.0 0.5 0 2000 1.0 Average dispersion June 2009- 2015 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 0 Note: 3-months pair-wise average absolute correlation between daily returns of Equity EM & DM, DM Govies, EM Bonds, Corporate Credit, Commodities & FX Carry trade, 1-month moving average. Source: Macrobond, Bloomberg, Lyxor AM The second challenge facing active managers is the widespread shift into index-tracking, passive funds, a trend that lasted two decades and shows no sign of decelerating. With an increasing range of market exposures now available via low-cost, index-tracking exchange-traded funds (ETFs), many investors have decided to track indices, rather than try to beat them. Global ETF assets approached US$3.5 trillion in value by the end of 2016, with assets growing at an average 25 percent a year since 2007. And, within the passive fund segment, so-called smart beta funds are growing particularly strongly. These indextracking vehicles replicate non-standard benchmarks, with the objective of producing specific risk or return outcomes. A type of smart beta generating special interest among institutional clients is factor investing. Academic research has shown that equity portfolios’ exposure to factors such as low beta, size, value, momentum, quality and liquidity helps explain the majority of past portfolio performance. Many institutions are engaging passive managers to run factor mandates, while there’s also a widening range of ETFs offering exposure to factors. Lyxor calculates that European smart beta ETF assets under management reached €27 billion by the end of 2016, ten times the level of four years earlier. A third consideration for active managers is the growing impact of regulation on their business models. Initiatives such as the Financial Conduct Authority’s Asset Management Market Study have put pressure on active managers to justify the link between the services they offer 2 and the charges they levy. Cost transparency is also one of the central themes of the revised Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID II). Lyxor has long believed in an important role for low-cost passive funds: we are a leading player in the European ETF market and were one of the pioneers of European ETFs nearly two decades ago. But we are also firm advocates of active and alternative asset management. All three approaches—passive, long-only active and alternative— have a vital role to play in clients’ portfolios. ACTIVE MANAGEMENT SHOULD BE COMPLEMENTARY TO PASSIVE MANAGEMENT Although many industry observers tend to present passive and active portfolio management approaches as diametrically opposing and in competition, Lyxor believes that active management should operate in a complementary way to its passive counterpart. Clearly, there’s an important difference between the two approaches: active managers aim to outperform their benchmarks, while passive managers aim to track them. But active and passive often share a common quantitative framework, particularly in the realm of smart beta and factor investing. By definition, the indices underlying passive funds follow systematic, transparent rules. But active funds run according to quantitative models, as at Lyxor, operate in a not dissimilar way. A quantitative approach to investment offers clear benefits: by mining and analysing the ever-growing seam of opensource data in a thoughtful and standardised way, we provide an important logical framework for our investment policies and help measure the risk exposures of the assets we hold. A non emotional approach also helps reduce the influence of the behavioural biases to which we are all prone. But a purely data-driven approach often misses structural changes and may be inefficient in a changing market environment. Factor models also tend to have very limited reliance on the macroeconomic data that drive shorter-term market trends. In Lyxor’s view, active views are therefore often required when it comes to the selection, timing and weighting of portfolio allocations. Our quantitative fund management team, which numbers 40 experts, is responsible for €30 billion in client assets, therefore makes use of factor scoring models to provide an objective basis for its investment approach. We then apply a discretionary overlay to take account of changing market conditions. For example, in our active clients’ equity portfolios we marked the recent shift away from quality and lowbeta factors and towards more cyclical, value stocks in two ways: via an asset allocation change, reweighting portfolios towards more economically sensitive stocks like financials; and, within the financial sector, via a discretionary move to overweight banks vis-à-vis other financial stocks like insurance companies. However, a UCITS multi-strategy structure can benefit from the mutualisation of risk exposures, enabling a broader range of alternative strategies to be put in place. ALTERNATIVES AS AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF PERFORMANCE Lyxor’s managed account platform, which draws from the expertise of one of Europe’s largest open architecture fund selection teams, advising or managing on €28 billion in assets, is continuing to grow in size. Within this total, multistrategy alternative UCITS have gained increasing traction in the last two years. In an environment of depressed nominal returns from traditional asset classes, alternative funds can provide a valuable additional source of portfolio performance. For example, the current low level of bond yields presents long-only asset managers with a major challenge. Several conventional means of generating returns from a bond portfolio—extending duration, accepting lower-quality credit or lower liquidity bonds—have arguably reached a limit in terms of the risk-return trade-off involved. OPTIMISING COSTS CREATES VALUE Most asset managers have always relied largely on a promise of value creation that investment skill will help generate future portfolio performance. But alternative funds can exploit strategies that are simply unavailable to traditional, long-only fixed income managers. These include long-short credit and other arbitrage strategies, as well as trend-following (CTA) approaches. In Lyxor’s opinion, the successful asset manager of the future will be one that helps clients to avoid value diluters as much as being able to identify and exploit value creators. The potential value diluters in a fund structure can include a duplication of efforts among fund managers, administrators and consultants. With rising concerns about a possible bond bear market, these alternative portfolio management approaches are much less exposed than traditional strategies to a market reversal. In turn, this can generate excessive investment management and administration costs, lead to poor tax management and result in an unwieldy decision-making process for fund trustees and CIOs, resulting in missed tactical asset allocation opportunities. In an era where so much information is available in real time, it’s not acceptable for the CIO of a pension fund to have to wait a year or more to implement an asset allocation change simply because of an unwieldy decision-making process. Another benefit for alternative fund investors comes from Europe’s UCITS fund framework. UCITS funds have important inbuilt investor protection rules, covering leverage, concentration, counterparty risk and liquidity. There’s an additional benefit that comes from providing multiple alternative strategies via a single fund platform, such as Lyxor’s. At an individual fund level, the UCITS rules constrain the size of positions that a long-short credit fund, for example, would be able to exploit. VALUE DILUTERS AND VALUE CREATORS LDI TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION VALUE CREATORS MARKET EFFECT SECURITY SELECTION VALUE DILUTERS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COSTS MISSED TAA OPPORTUNITIES Historically focus of pension funds was on value creators In new reality of low yield environment we see increasing attention to value diluters WITHHOLDING TAXES ADMINISTRATION COSTS CONSULTING COSTS 3 In a 2015 OECD study of pension fund operating expenses relative to total assets, the top quartile of pension funds had expenses of 18 basis points relative to their assets and the second quartile expenses of 33 basis points. But the third quartile had an expense/asset ratio of 69 basis points and the fourth quartile 122 basis points. For the average fund, there is therefore a substantial opportunity to reduce investment management and administration costs, as well as rationalising the operational set-up to avoid missing out on important opportunities. A recent project for a Lyxor pension fund client involved the streamlining of its operational and fiscal structure. Any duplication amongst consultants, custodians and overlay providers was minimised and client assets were placed into three pooled vehicles, covering equities, fixed income and alternatives, with significantly enhanced reporting capabilities. A single fiduciary manager, working closely with the pension fund CIO, was put in place to oversee the new set-up. The restructuring resulted in an estimated 40% saving in operational costs, a saving that feeds directly into the future benefits enjoyed by fund beneficiaries. A FULL FIDUCIARY SERVICE Today, an increasing number of clients are looking for an investment partner who can offer a full fiduciary service: this means open-source access to a selection of the best internally and externally managed strategies in a regulated, liquid format. This should cover the full spectrum of asset classes, investment approaches and fund liquidity structures. Such a fiduciary service can encompass the range of asset management approaches — traditional long-only active funds, passive funds and alternative funds — as long as they are designed to function in a complementary manner. And in an environment of intensifying cost-consciousness, the active manager needs to focus on generating value along the full chain of investment services, from front to middle and back office. A fund infrastructure should guarantee the full transparency of client holdings, enabling asset owners to form a real-time, top-down view of risk exposures and to move nimbly when circumstances change. This material and its content are confidential and may not be reproduced or provided to others without the express written permission of Lyxor Asset Management (“Lyxor AM”). This material has been prepared solely for informational purposes only and it is not intended to be and should not be considered as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, or an invitation or a personal recommendation to buy or sell participating shares in any Lyxor Fund, or any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any investment strategy, directly or indirectly. It is intended for use only by those recipients to whom it is made directly available by Lyxor AM. Lyxor AM will not treat recipients of this material as its clients by virtue of their receiving this material. This material reflects the views and opinions of the individual authors at this date and in no way the official position or advices of any kind of these authors or of Lyxor AM and thus does not engage the responsibility of Lyxor AM nor of any of its officers or employees. Services and marks appearing herein are the exclusive property of SG and its affiliates, as the case may be. Services and marks appearing herein are the exclusive property of Lyxor AM and its affiliates, as the case may be. Lyxor Asset Management - Tours Société Générale 17 Cours Valmy - 92987 Paris La Défense Cedex - France www.lyxor.com - [email protected]
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