Ecological Applications, 16(1), 2006, pp. 328–338 ! 2006 by the Ecological Society of America QUANTIFYING ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION MORTALITY RISK IN BLUEGILL LARVAE: EFFECTS OF NEST LOCATION MARK H. OLSON,1,3 MATTHEW R. COLIP,1 JUSTIN S. GERLACH,1 AND DAVID L. MITCHELL2 1Department of Biology, Franklin & Marshall College, Lancaster, Pennsylvania 17604 USA Department of Carcinogenesis, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center Science Park/Research Division, P.O. Box 389, Park Road 1C, Smithville, Texas 78957 USA 2 Abstract. Ultraviolet (UV) radiation (280–400 nm) is an increasing threat to aquatic organisms due to stratospheric ozone depletion and reductions in concentrations of dissolved organic carbon. Because fish are most vulnerable to UV during the egg and larval stages, parental spawning site selection can strongly influence mortality risk. We examined the role of nest location in determining UV-induced mortality risk for bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus) in Lake Giles, Pennsylvania, USA. In a series of five short-term incubation experiments, we found that survival of yolk sac larvae across the range of depths at which bluegill spawn was significantly lower in the presence of ambient-UV levels relative to larvae that were shielded from UV radiation. In addition, survival decreased as a function of cumulative UV exposure, as measured by the number of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers per megabase DNA in DNA dosimeters. Although UV had the potential to significantly reduce larval survival, DNA dosimeters placed in bluegill nests concurrently with incubation experiments indicated that most nests were exposed to relatively low levels of UV. Only 19% of nests had predicted UV-induced mortality greater than 25%. Consequently, current levels of UV may be an important mortality source at the level of individual nests, but not at the population level. One reason for the weak predicted effect of UV on bluegill survival is that many nests were located at depths by which much of the incident UV had been attenuated. In addition, many of the shallower nests were protected by overhanging trees or other submerged structures. It is important to note that Lake Giles is highly transparent and therefore not representative of all lakes in which bluegill are found. Nevertheless, Lake Giles is a natural system and may be representative of north temperate lakes in the future. Key words: bluegill; DNA dosimeter; fish larvae; Lepomis macrochirus; mortality; nest location; quantile regression; ultraviolet radiation. INTRODUCTION Levels of ultraviolet (UV) radiation (280–400 nm) are increasing in many aquatic ecosystems due to processes operating across a range of scales. On a global scale, stratospheric ozone depletion has caused increases in UV reaching the earth’s surface, particularly at mid and high latitudes (Madronich et al. 1998, McKenzie et al. 1999). This depletion is expected to continue for several decades because of synergistic effects of ozone depletion and global climate change (Shindell et al. 1998). On a local scale, UV exposure in aquatic systems can increase in response to changes in water chemistry, particularly concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC). In lakes with high DOC concentrations, UV attenuates in the top few centimeters and relatively little damaging radiation reaches organisms living below the water surface (Morris et al. 1995). However, changes in land use and reductions in runoff associated with climate change can reduce DOC inputs and thereby increase UV penetration (Schindler et al. Manuscript received 18 February 2005; revised 23 May 2005; accepted 3 June 2005. Corresponding Editor: T. E. Essington. 3 E-mail: [email protected] 1992, Molot et al. 2004). Current and future increases in UV pose a threat to aquatic organisms because prolonged exposure damages DNA, which can result in mutations, decreased physiological performance, or death (Siebeck et al. 1994, Häder and Worrest 1997). Fish are most susceptible to UV damage during the egg and larval stages (Hunter et al. 1979, 1981). In part, this vulnerability is a consequence of high surface-area-to-volume ratios that increase the proportion of cells at or near the external surface. In addition, eggs and larvae tend to have low concentrations of photoprotective compounds because the synthesis of pigments such as melanin is induced by exposure to light (Häkkinen et al. 2002) and mycosporine-like amino acids can only be acquired through consumption (Mason et al. 1998). Eggs and larvae also have limited capabilities of behaviorally avoiding UV exposure due to their reduced mobility (Williamson et al. 1997), and at least some species cannot detect UV in early developmental stages (Britt et al. 2001). Because eggs and larvae are especially vulnerable to UV, parental selection of spawning sites can strongly influence mortality risk. To reduce risk, fish may spawn at sites that are shaded or at depths that receive little 328 February 2006 PLATE 1. QUANTIFYING UV RISK IN BLUEGILL LARVAE 329 Male bluegill guarding a nest of eggs in Lake Giles, Pennsylvania. Photo credit: M. H. Olson. UV. However, spawning site selection is influenced by a variety of additional factors including spawning site fidelity (Miller et al. 2001), habitat quality (Essington et al. 1998), water temperature (Webster and Eiriksdottir 1976, Huff et al. 2004), and proximity to conspecifics (Gross and MacMillan 1981). Some of these factors may provide an advantage to fish that spawn in open areas or at shallow depths. In systems with high UV transparency, these exposed nests might be at risk of significant UV-induced mortality. In this study, we evaluated the effect of UV radiation on survival of bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus; see Plate 1). Bluegill may be highly vulnerable to increases in UV for several reasons. First, bluegill spawn in May through July when UV levels are at their highest. In addition, bluegill nest in shallow water (typically around 1 m) and eggs adhere individually to structures in the nest rather than settling into interstitial spaces (Avila 1976, Scott and Crossman 1979). Finally, previous laboratory and field experiments have suggested that ambient levels of UV can be a significant source of mortality for bluegill (Guttierez-Rodriquez and Williamson 1999). Depending on temperature, eggs incubate for approximately 3–5 days (Scott and Crossman 1979) and larvae remain at the nest for an additional 3–7 days before dispersing (Coleman and Fischer 1991, Garvey et al. 2002). During that time, eggs and larvae may receive high doses of UV, which could potentially influence survival and recruitment rates from individual nests and for bluegill populations as a whole. We conducted a series of short-term in situ incubation experiments to evaluate larval survival in the presence and absence of ambient UV in a highly transparent lake in northeastern Pennsylvania, USA. In these experiments, we also used assays of photodamage in raw DNA to develop a relationship between UV exposure and larval bluegill survival. This relationship was then combined with estimates of UV exposure in bluegill nests to determine the risk of UV-induced mortality across a range of nest locations. Our objective was to determine whether current levels of UV radiation are a potentially important source of mortality for bluegill in this transparent ecosystem. Insights from this study will help us to better understand the potential impacts of future increases in UV exposure. METHODS Study site We conducted incubation experiments and a nest exposure study in Lake Giles, located at 41!23" N, 75!06" W in Pike County, Pennsylvania, USA. The lake has Ecological Applications Vol. 16, No. 1 MARK H. OLSON ET AL. 330 an elevation of 428 m, a surface area of 48 ha, and mean and maximum depths of 10.1 and 24 m, respectively. Because Lake Giles has low DOC concentrations (mean of 1.1 mg/L), it is highly transparent. Secchi depths range from 10 to 15 m, and 1% of surface UV radiation (320 nm) typically reaches a depth of 5 m. Bluegill are the dominant fish species in terms of abundance and biomass. Other common species are yellow perch (Perca flavescens), pumpkinseed (L. gibbosus), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), and smallmouth bass (M. dolomieui). Incubation experiments We evaluated the effects of ambient-UV exposure on survival of bluegill larvae in a series of five short-term incubation experiments in June and July 2004. For each experiment, we collected yolk sac larvae from a single nest in Lake Giles the day before beginning an incubation. Larvae were transported in a cooler back to the laboratory and stocked into UV-transparent plastic containers (whirl-pak bags; Nasco, Fort Atkinson, Wisconsin, USA) filled with 100 mL of filtered (60-#m mesh) water from Lake Giles. Each container was stocked with approximately 10 individual larvae. A subset of containers also received a single dosimeter for quantification of UV exposure (see below). Afterwards, containers were placed in a cooler filled with water, which was then placed in a dark incubator and held overnight at the same temperature as the epilimnion of Lake Giles. The next morning, we transported experimental containers back to Lake Giles and placed them in pairs at 0.5 m depth intervals from 0.5 to 4.0 m along three transects (the first round of incubations only went to a depth of 3.0 m). For each pair of containers, one was placed in a sleeve made of Aclar (Honeywell, Morris, New Jersey, USA) and the other was placed in a sleeve made of Courtgard (CPFilms, Martinsville, Virginia, USA). Aclar is a clear long-wave-pass plastic that transmits 100% of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and 98% of UV radiation (295–399 nm). In contrast, Courtgard is a clear long-wave-pass plastic that transmits no radiation $320 nm and only 9% of UVA (320–399 nm), but 95% of PAR. To quantify UV exposure levels, we added dosimeters to all experimental containers placed in either UV transparent sleeves or the 0.5-m UV blocking sleeves. Each sleeve was attached to a pair of U-shaped wire frames that were pushed into the sediment until stable. Containers were intentionally suspended off the lake bottom to reduce the risk of being covered by sediment. All containers were deployed in Lake Giles between 10:00 and 13:30 hours on 3 June, 11 June, 17 June, 25 June, and 8 July. Four days after each experiment began, all containers were retrieved between 10:00 and 13:30 hours and placed in a dark cooler filled with water from the epilimnion of Lake Giles. The cooler was then transported back to the laboratory, and the contents of each con- tainer was examined under a dissecting microscope to determine the number of living and dead bluegill larvae. Death was defined as the lack of a visible heart beat. The proportion of bluegill larvae surviving was analyzed by analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) with the presence/absence of UV radiation and experiment number as categorical variables and depth of incubation as a continuous variable. Nest exposure study Concurrently with incubation experiments, we also quantified UV exposure in active bluegill nests. We attached dosimeters to glass slides with two small rubber bands and placed single dosimeters into four separate nests in each of 10 different bluegill colonies (the fifth round only had eight colonies). All dosimeters were placed between 09:45 and 13:30 hours except for the first experiment in which dosimeters were placed between 14:00 and 16:30 hours. Bluegill colonies were chosen to represent a range of spawning depths and locations. After four days, all dosimeters were retrieved using snorkel or SCUBA and then immediately wrapped in foil and placed in a dark cooler to prevent exposure to direct sunlight. Just before collecting dosimeters, we measured the depth of each nest to the nearest centimeter. At the end of the bluegill spawning season, we also conducted a lake-wide survey of bluegill colony locations. A pair of divers swam the perimeter of the lake on 8 July, 14 July, and 15 July in search of bluegill colonies. When a colony was located, each diver made an independent estimate of the number of nests. Estimates within 10% of one another were averaged. If estimates were not within 10% of one another, both divers recounted nests. In every instance, recounts were within 10% of one another. In addition to counting nests, we also estimated colony depth from the depths at the endpoints of the colony’s longest linear dimension and at the endpoints of the longest orthogonal. DNA dosimeters Dosimeters consisted of quartz cuvettes (10 mm diameter and 40 mm long) filled with 0.4 mL of DNA solution (derived from salmon testes and diluted to 100 #g/mL in double distilled water). Each end of the cuvette was sealed with parafilm and a rubber stopper. When exposed to UV radiation (particularly 280–320 nm), the DNA in cuvettes accumulated molecular damage in the form of various photoproducts. The frequency of the most common photoproduct, a cyclobutane pyrimidine dimer (CPD), was quantified using radioimmunoassay (RIA). The RIA is a competitive binding assay between very small amounts of radiolabeled DNA and sample DNA for antisera raised against UV-irradiated DNA. For the RIA, 50 ng of heatdenatured sample DNA was incubated with 5–10 pg of poly(dA):poly(dT) (labeled to %5 & 108 cpm/#g by QUANTIFYING UV RISK IN BLUEGILL LARVAE February 2006 TABLE 1. 331 Physical conditions for the five rounds of incubation experiments. Temperature (!C) Date 3–7 June 11–15 June 17–21 June 25–29 June 8–12 July Starting Ending 20.0 20.3 22.3 21.6 23.8 19.6 21.0 20.8 22.0 22.9 Cumulative surface exposure (W/m2) 14 234.1 23 574.6 23 563.0 20 595.9 24 954.9 ' ' ' ' ' 66.3 81.1 141.0 22.2 142.7 1% attenuation depth (m) Date of UV depth profile 3.30 3.28 3.38 3.38 3.41 8 June 15 June 21 June 21 June 21 July Notes: Starting and ending temperatures were taken at the surface of Lake Giles, Pike County, Pennsylvania, USA. Cumulative surface exposure for 305 nm (mean ' SE) was calculated from a ground UV profiling radiometer located at the Lacawac Sanctuary, 20 km west of Lake Giles. The 1% attenuation depths were estimated from regressions of ln(percentage of surface irradiance for 305 nm) as a function of depth. All regressions had r2 % 0.98. nick translation with 32P-deoxythymidine triphosphate [dTTP]) in a total volume of 1 mL 10 mmol/L Tris, pH 7.8, 150 mmol/L NaCl, 1 mmol/L ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA), and 0.15% gelatin (Sigma, St. Louis, Missouri, USA). Antiserum was added at a dilution that yielded (35% binding to labeled ligand, and after incubation overnight at 4!C the immune complex was precipitated with goat anti-rabbit immunoglobulin (Calbiochem, San Diego, California, USA) and carrier serum from non-immunized rabbits (UTMDACC, Science Park/Veterinary Division, Bastrop, Texas, USA). After centrifugation, the pellet was dissolved in tissue solubilizer (NCS, Amersham, Piscataway, New Jersey, USA), mixed with ScintiSafe (Fisher, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA) containing 0.1% glacial acetic acid, and the 32P quantified by liquid scintillation spectrometry. Under these conditions, antibody binding to an unlabeled competitor inhibits antibody binding to the radiolabeled ligand. These details, as well as those concerning the specificities of the RIAs and standards used for quantification, are described in Mitchell (1996, 1999). To evaluate the potential role of shading in reducing mortality risk, we compared estimates of UV-induced mortality based on dosimeters placed in bluegill nests with UV-induced mortality predicted for the same depth in the absence of any shading (henceforth full exposure). We calculated the expected mortality under full exposure by combining incident measurements of UV irradiance with estimates of UV attenuation in Lake TABLE 2. Analysis of covariance of larval bluegill survival with round of experiment and UV treatment (shielded vs. ambient) as categorical variables and depth as a covariate. Source Round of experiment UV treatment Depth Round & UV Depth & Round Depth & UV Depth & UV & Round df F P 4 1 1 4 4 1 4 8.86 20.38 24.00 0.57 1.05 0.01 1.56 $0.0001 $0.0001 $0.0001 0.66 0.38 0.92 0.19 Notes: Significant sources of variation are in boldface type. All tests had 199 degrees of freedom in the denominator. Giles. Incident measurements of UV irradiance at 305 nm were measured continuously with a ground-based UV radiometer located at the Lacawac Sanctuary, located 20 km west of Lake Giles. Measurements integrated over 15-minute intervals were summed for the entire time a given dosimeter was deployed in a nest. Depth profiles of UV attenuation were estimated for the 305-nm bandwidth using a profiling UV radiometer. Profiles were usually measured at some point close to or during a four-day exposure (Table 1). Together, the attenuation coefficient and cumulative incident-UV irradiance provided an estimate of irradiance levels as a function of depth, which was converted to a predicted dosimeter value using the equation y ) 0.0239(x) * 10.24. The slope of this regression is based on data from Wilhelm et al. (2002), and the intercept represents the mean frequency of CPD’s/megabase [Mb] DNA for dosimeters placed in experimental containers placed in UV blocking sleeves. Finally, the predicted dosimeter value under full exposure and the observed dosimeter value for a bluegill nest at the same depth was converted to predicted UV-induced mortality using data from the incubation experiments (see Results). RESULTS Incubation experiments Physical conditions in Lake Giles, including cumulative surface UV exposure and attenuation depth, varied among the five rounds of experiments (Table 1). When all five rounds were analyzed together, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) on larval bluegill survival indicated significant main effects of round, UV treatment, and depth, but no significant interaction terms (Table 2). After removing the effect of round with a one-way ANOVA, residuals of survival were consistently higher in the UV-shielded treatment relative to ambient UV (Fig. 1). In addition, residuals increased slightly as a function of depth in both treatments (Fig. 1). Within the ambient-UV treatment, larval bluegill survival decreased as a function of increasing UV exposure as measured by the number of CPD’s/Mb DNA in dosimeters (Fig. 2). After dropping the nonsignifi- 332 MARK H. OLSON ET AL. Ecological Applications Vol. 16, No. 1 as a function of a single predictor variable (Cade and Noon 2003). For the relationship between larval bluegill survival and dosimeter value, the 0.70, 0.80, and 0.90 deciles all declined significantly with increasing number of CPD’s/Mb DNA (Fig. 3, Table 3). In contrast, all smaller deciles had nonsignificant regressions (Table 3). Therefore, the upper side of the distribution of larval bluegill survival rates declined with increasing dosimeter value, whereas the lower side of the distribution did not change. Nest exposure study FIG. 1. Residuals (means ' SE) of the proportion of larval bluegill surviving at the end of four-day incubation experiments as a function of incubation depth in ambient-UV and UV-shielded treatments in Lake Giles in Pike County, Pennsylvania, USA. Residuals were calculated from a one-way ANOVA with round of experiment as a categorical variable. Symbols denote mean survival over the five rounds of experiments. cant interaction term from the full ANCOVA model with round of experiment as a categorical variable and dosimeter value as a continuous variable, the main effects of round and dosimeter value were both highly significant (overall model, F5,87 ) 15.83, P $ 0.0001; main effect of round, F5,87 ) 17.59, P $ 0.0001; main effect of dosimeter value, F1,87 ) 8.81, P $ 0.005). Survival was highly variable both within and among rounds, and this variability appeared to decrease as a function of dosimeter value (Fig. 2). This pattern can be examined using quantile regression, which quantifies changes in the distribution of a response variable Ultraviolet exposure levels in bluegill nests, as measured by dosimeters, varied widely among rounds and as a function of depth (Fig. 3). An ANCOVA of ln(dosimeter value) with round of experiment as a categorical variable and ln(depth) as a continuous variable was significant and included significant main effects but no interaction term (overall model, F9, 169 ) 23.85, P $ 0.0001; round, F4, 169 ) 8.38, P $ 0.0001; depth, F1, 169 ) 114.54, P $ 0.0001; interaction, F4, 169 ) 1.32, P % 0.25). In addition to individual exposure levels, variability in exposure levels among nests also decreased as a function of depth (Fig. 3). In nests at depths of 1–2 m, the coefficient of variation (CV) in dosimeter values was 76.0. In contrast, the CV for nests 4–5 m deep was only 32.7. We used the 0.90 decile regression equation of survival vs. dosimeter value from the incubation experiments (Table 3) to predict potential UV-induced mortality for bluegill larvae located in our exposure study nests. We used this equation instead of the ordinary least-squares regression equation to provide a more accurate estimate of the effect of UV on survival, par- FIG. 2. Proportion of larval bluegill surviving at the end of four-day incubation experiments as a function of UV exposure (expressed as a dosimeter value, in cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPD’s) per megabase DNA). Each point corresponds to an experimental unit from the ambient-UV treatment. Symbols denote different rounds of incubation experiments. The three lines represent significant relationships for the 0.70 (dotted line), 0.80 (dashed line), and 0.90 (solid line) deciles. See Results: Incubation experiments for details. QUANTIFYING UV RISK IN BLUEGILL LARVAE February 2006 333 FIG. 3. Ultraviolet exposure (expressed as a dosimeter value, in cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPD’s) per megabase DNA) as a function of nest depth. Each point corresponds to an individual bluegill nest. Symbols denote different rounds of exposure. For all rounds combined, the best-fit exponential curve is y ) 83.2e+0.471(x), n ) 170, r2 ) 0.66. ticularly for low UV doses (i.e., close to the y-intercept) where survival is expected to be high. In general, UV was predicted to be a relatively small source of mortality in most bluegill nests (Fig. 4). Approximately 55% of nests were expected to have mortality of 0.15 or lower. Because the 0.90 decile regression predicts mortality of 0.08 with no UV exposure, the actual change in mortality due to UV exposure was minimal. Nevertheless, UV exposure was a potentially important source of mortality in some nests (Fig. 4). The highest predicted mortality was 0.49, and approximately 19% had predicted mortality of at least 0.25. All nests located !3 m deep had predicted mortality $0.20. In contrast, shallower nests exhibited a wide range of potential UV-induced mortality. For example, nests lo- TABLE 3. Results of quantile regression of proportion surviving as a function of dosimeter value for 0.10–0.90 deciles. Decile 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 Intercept Slope Asymptotic rank score statistic 0.00 0.1022 0.1278 0.2031 0.3016 0.4365 0.6630 0.8199 0.9223 0.00 +0.00057 +0.00024 +0.00045 +0.00085 +0.00121 +0.00204 +0.00273 +0.00305 0.0004 0.81 0.17 2.05 2.29 1.87 4.84 4.19 3.74 P 0.99 0.37 0.68 0.15 0.13 0.17 0.03 0.04 0.05 Notes: The asymptotic rank score statistic is distributed as a chi-square statistic and has one degree of freedom (i.e., the difference in number of parameters between the full and reduced models). Significant relationships appear in boldface type. cated in 1–2 m depth had predicted mortality that ranged from 0.08 to 0.49. Predicted UV-induced mortality estimated from dosimeters in bluegill nests differed from UV-induced mortality estimated for full-exposure conditions. These differences were strongest in shallow nests and decreased as a function of depth (Fig. 5). An ANCOVA of the ln-transformed difference between predicted mortality in a bluegill nest and predicted mortality at the same depth under full exposure with round of experiment as a categorical variable and depth as a continuous variable was significant and included significant main effects but no interaction term (overall model, F9, 169 ) 17.15, P $ 0.0001; round, F4, 169 ) 5.96, P $ 0.0005; depth, F1, 169 ) 99.29, P $ 0.0001; interaction, F4, 169 ) 1.45, P % 0.10). Under full exposure, nests $1.0 m deep were predicted to have mean mortality of 0.55. In contrast, mean predicted mortality was only 0.19 based on actual exposure levels. With increasing depth, the difference in predicted mortality approached 0, indicating these nests were receiving close to full exposure conditions. Although differences in predicted mortality in nests compared to full exposure were strongest for shallow nests, there were still many nests in this region for which the difference was close to 0. In some cases, the difference was even $0, indicating that predicted mortality under actual exposure were higher than under full exposure. Most of these cases were observed in the experiments that ran from 17 to 21 June or from 25 to 29 June. The depths where highest predicted mortality (0–2 m) were observed were also the depths where the majority of bluegill nests were located in Lake Giles (Fig. 6). Approximately 56% of all bluegill colonies had 334 Ecological Applications Vol. 16, No. 1 MARK H. OLSON ET AL. FIG. 4. Frequency histogram of predicted UV-induced mortality in bluegill nests. Predicted mortality was calculated for all five rounds of exposure using dosimeter values from Fig. 3 and the 0.90-decile regression equation from Fig. 2. mean depths "2.0 m. Because the number of nests in a colony was not correlated with colony depth (r ) 0.16, n ) 46, P % 0.25), the depth distribution of colonies is also representative of the depth distribution of individual nests. Although the majority of bluegill colonies were located in shallow water, approximately 30% were located at depths %4.0 m. The maximum colony depth we observed was 5.8 m. DISCUSSION Current levels of ultraviolet radiation can potentially be an important mortality source for bluegill in Lake FIG. 5. Reduction in predicted UV-induced mortality in bluegill nests relative to predicted UV-induced mortality under full exposure as a function of nest depth. Each point corresponds to an individual bluegill nest. Predicted mortality under full exposure was calculated using cumulative surface irradiance at 305 nm (measured 20 km west of Lake Giles) and attenuation coefficients for 305 nm to estimate exposure at a specific nest. This value was then converted to a predicted dosimeter value using the equation y ) 0.0239(x) * 10.24. For all rounds combined, the best-fit exponential curve is y ) 4.46e+2.875(x), n ) 170, r2 ) 0.74. February 2006 QUANTIFYING UV RISK IN BLUEGILL LARVAE FIG. 6. Frequency distribution of bluegill colonies as a function of depth in Lake Giles. Colony depth was estimated as the mean of the endpoints along the greatest linear dimension and the endpoints of the longest orthogonal. Giles. Larvae incubated across a range of depths at which bluegill nests had significantly lower mortality when shielded from UV than larvae exposed to ambient-UV levels. Despite this sensitivity, our analyses also suggest that most bluegill nests had relatively low UV-induced mortality. Only 19% of nests were predicted to have UV-induced mortality of 25% or higher. Therefore, UV could be a significant source of mortality at the level of individual nests even though it does not appear to be important in the majority of nests. The low risk of UV-induced mortality in most nests was a direct consequence of nest location. Many of the shallow nests were shaded from harmful levels of UV radiation for at least part of the day because they were located under or near overhanging trees or other submerged structures. In addition, nests in deeper colonies received little UV radiation due to the attenuation of the shortest and most damaging wavelengths. Palen et al. (2005) also found that oviposition site played an important role in reducing UV exposure in two species of salamanders (Ambystoma spp.). When UV transparency was high, A. gracile reduced exposure by increasing egg depth whereas A. macrodactylum reduced exposure by laying eggs in shaded microhabitats. Nest locations in Lake Giles are consistent with the hypothesis that bluegill choose nesting sites to minimize UV exposure, as Huff et al. (2004) concluded for yellow perch spawning in Lake Giles. Indeed, the typical spawning depth of bluegill is approximately 1 m (Scott and Crossman 1979), and Gutiérrez-Rodrı́quez and Williamson (1999) found that no bluegill nests in nearby low-UV Lake Lacawac were deeper than 2.2 m. However, the present study was not designed to evaluate factors influencing nest site selection in bluegill. Alternative explanations such as substrate suitability have not been examined. In addition, bluegill lack UV photoreceptors (Hawryshyn et al. 1988), although they may use visible light as a surrogate. Therefore, we cannot conclude that bluegill choose to spawn in shaded areas or deep water to avoid UV exposure. Nest site 335 selection in bluegill is influenced by many factors, particularly the location of conspecifics (Neff et al. 2004). Nevertheless, the location of nests played a key role in limiting the population-level effects of UV in bluegill. The presence of overhanging trees and other structures along the shore of Lake Giles played a key role in reducing UV exposure levels in shallow water, where the majority of bluegill nested. This finding highlights another important role of riparian vegetation in the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems (Naiman and Décamps 1997, Pace et al. 2004). A common trend in north temperate lakes is for trees to be removed as shorelines become more developed (Christensen et al. 1996, Jennings et al. 2003, Scheurell and Schindler 2004). In transparent lakes, this removal could greatly increase the risk of UV-induced mortality in bluegill, particularly if suitable spawning habitat is not available in deeper water as it is in Lake Giles. To help sustain viable bluegill populations, lake managers may wish to protect stretches of shoreline near bluegill colonies to provide a refuge from UV exposure. We predicted mortality due to UV exposure based on incubation experiments that ran for four days. Had the experiment run longer, UV-induced mortality would probably have been higher, especially in experimental containers that already had high dosimeter values. With a longer incubation, experimental larvae would have been more likely to experience at least one cloudless day of high UV exposure. In addition, effects of UV exposure can take up to three days to be expressed in bluegill larvae (M. H. Olson, unpublished data). Therefore, larvae that received a lethal dose of UV on the second or third day of an incubation could still have been scored as alive when the experiment ended. Although longer incubations would likely have produced stronger UV effects, they would have been less realistic given that larvae only stay at the nest for 3–7 days after hatching (Coleman and Fischer 1991, Garvey et al. 2002), and we did not know the precise hatching dates of our experimental animals. Furthermore, a longer incubation could potentially have problems with oxygen depletion in our experimental containers, which did not occur in our four-day incubations (M. H. Olson, unpublished data). Due to logistic difficulties associated with collecting eggs, we were also limited to conducting incubation experiments with larvae. For many fishes, UV tolerance increases with age and/or developmental stage (Hunter et al. 1982, Kouwenberg et al. 1999, but see Browman et al. 2003). Consequently, those nests that already had high predicted mortality for larvae could have even higher total mortality if eggs are also considered. We used the relationship between survival and dosimeter value from the incubation experiments to predict UV-induced mortality in the nest exposure study. Although this relationship was significant, it was highly variable for low dosimeter values (Fig. 2). This type 336 MARK H. OLSON ET AL. of pattern is common in ecological data when the predictor variable is only one of several factors that influence a response variable (Garvey et al. 1998, Cade and Noon 2003). At high values, the predictor variable exerts a strong influence on the response variable regardless of the magnitude of other factors. At low values, however, the predictor variable exerts a weak influence, and the response variable is influenced more strongly by other factors (e.g., handling stress, temperature change) that may be independent of the predictor variable. Quantile regression is a useful technique for dealing with this kind of relationship because it better represents the increasing influence of the predictor variable on the response variable (Cade and Noon 2003). By using the 0.90 decile, we could estimate the effect of UV under a ‘‘best case scenario’’ when other factors have a minimal effect on larval survival. Some of the scatter in Fig. 2 may also reflect biological responses to variation in UV exposure that is not revealed in dosimeters. Photodamage in dosimeters accrues as a function of total UV dose and is independent of dose rate (Wilhelm et al. 2002). Because bluegill utilize both nucleotide excision repair and photoenzymatic repair to reverse DNA photodamage (M. H. Olson and D. L. Mitchell, unpublished manuscript), reciprocity does not hold and the consequences of UV exposure depend on UV dose rate rather than just total dose (Grad et al. 2001). At low dose rates, bluegill can repair DNA damage as it occurs. However, a high dose rate can cause damage that exceeds repair rates and results in death. Therefore, variation in dose rates could cause larval bluegill survival to differ among experimental units that had similar dosimeter values. We also observed wide variation in larval bluegill survival among rounds of our incubation experiments. Because no interaction terms were significant, these differences were consistent across all depths and in the presence or absence of ambient UV. Therefore, differences in UV exposure, dose rate, attenuation depth, or temperature fluctuation (which would be most pronounced at shallow depths and therefore could explain the significant main effect of depth) are not likely explanations. Instead, this result may be caused by variation in the vigor of experimental larvae due to differences in factors such as age, condition, or genotype. These differences would be observed among rounds of incubations, but would be relatively small within rounds because all experimental animals in a given round were collected from a single nest. In our analysis of the reduction in predicted UVinduced mortality, we found that some nests measured on 17–21 June and 25–29 June actually had higher mortality predicted from dosimeters in the nests than expected with full exposure (Fig. 5). This discrepancy may be due to the fact that mortality under full exposure was derived from incident-UV levels measured 20 km away from Lake Giles. Alternatively, errors in either Ecological Applications Vol. 16, No. 1 the intercept or the slope of the regression used to convert UV dose to dosimeter values could have reduced our predicted mortality for full exposure. If we did underestimate predicted mortality for full exposure, we would expect even larger reductions in predicted mortality, particularly for shallower nests. The findings reported in this study are specific to Lake Giles, Pennsylvania. Lake Giles is one of the more transparent lakes in North America with a 1% UV305 attenuation depth on the order of 3–4 m in June. Lake Giles is therefore atypical of lakes in which bluegill live. For comparison, nearby Lake Lacawac has DOC concentrations of 4–5 mg/L and a 1% UV305 attenuation depth of only 0.53 m (Huff et al. 2004). Because much of the incident UV will be absorbed by DOC in the top few centimeters, UV is not likely to be a significant source of mortality in any bluegill nests in Lake Lacawac or other moderate to high DOC systems. Lesser et al. (2001) reached a similar conclusion regarding UV-induced mortality risk to spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum). Nevertheless, Lake Giles is a natural system and may be representative of north temperate lakes in the future. Continued depletion of stratospheric ozone combined with global climate change may lead to increases in UV exposure over large parts of the earth’s surface (Madronich et al. 1998, Shindell et al. 1998). At the scale of individual lakes, UV penetration can increase in response to droughts (Yan et al. 1996), acidification (Schindler et al. 1996, Williamson et al. 1996), or reductions in DOC inputs (Schindler et al. 1992, Williamson et al. 1996). Each of these factors could increase in frequency or severity over time due to global climate change, accumulation of nitric acid in our environment, and land use changes, respectively. In addition, invasive Dreissenid mussels continue to spread in inland lakes throughout North America (Kraft et al. 2002). Once established, they can reduce algal concentrations and consequently increase light penetration (Caraco et al. 1997, Idrisi et al. 2001). If some or all of these changes were to occur within a lake, UV exposure may increase to levels observed in Lake Giles. Because of their spawning behavior, spawning time, and low UV tolerance, bluegill may be among the most vulnerable fishes to increasing UV exposure. However, several studies have found that current ambient-UV levels can have strong effects on early life stages of other fish species, including yellow perch (Huff et al. 2004), pike (Esox lucius, Häkkinen and Oikari 2004; Galaxias maculates, Battini et al. 2000), and sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka, Flamarique and Harrower 1999). Through its effect on egg and larval survival, UV could influence recruitment and ultimately population dynamics of these recreationally or commercially important species. In addition, UV could also potentially influence food webs from the top down through its effect on fish populations. 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