Medieval Universities, Legal Institutions, and the Commercial Revolution Presented by Ming, Yang @ EC764 Department of Economics Boston University Sep. 2016 INTRODUCTION ■ THE PAPER Cantoni, Davide and Noram Yuchtman (2014). “Medieval universities, Legal institutions, and the Commercial Revolution,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129, 823-887. ■ BOILS DOWN TO ONE STATEMENT Medieval Universities played a causal role in expanding economic activity. ■ TRANSLATED TO THE LANGUAGE OF ECONOMICS The trend rate of market establishment in Germany breaks upward in 1386, which can be explained by the contemporaneous foundation of Germany’s first universities, through the channel that these universities provided students with legal training to law and administrative institutions, whose development contributed to greater economic activity in medieval Germany. [1/44] MAIN PROBLEMS By comparison between these two statements, we have the following main questions: ■ QUESTION 1: INDICATOR OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Why is establishment of markets a good indicator of economic activity? ■ QUESTION 2: EXOGENEITY Is the foundation of universities exogenous to economic activity? If not, there will be endogeneity. For example, is it possible that new universities were more likely to be build in rich areas? ■ QUESTION 3: MEASURE THE INFLUENCE OF UNIVERSITIES What is the variable used to measure the effects that the foundation of universities had on cities? [2/44] MAIN PROBLEMS ■ QUESTION 4: EXPLANATORY POWER Although greater economic activity showed up in companion with the emergence of universities, it does not necessarily mean the latter has a strong explanatory power to the former. ■ QUESTION 5: CAUSAL MECHANISM Given that foundation of the first universities in Germany had a significant contribution to the expanding economic activity, how could we know it is through the channel suggested by the authors? ■ QUESTION 6: ROBUSTNESS How sensitive is the conclusion to variant model specification? Also, to what degree can our example represent Medieval Europe? Because the title says “Medieval Universities…” not “14th Century German Universities…”. [3/44] COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION & ESTABLISHMENT OF MARKETS ■ COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION Time: 900~1500 A.D.; Late Middle Age Location: Europe Event: Cities growth; Trading expansion Historical Importance: 1) Set stage for Europe’s exploration and colonization of the world 2) Institutional and political development lead to modernization of Europe Cause: Technological innovation → Agricultural surplus → People released from farming → Larger urban population pursuing mental, religious and cultural careers → Towns’ size grows with higher consumption level → Larger markets for merchants and craftsmen. (Robert Lopez, 1976) [4/44] COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION & ESTABLISHMENT OF MARKETS ■ EXISTING DOCUMENTATIONS FOR COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION Source Measure Epstein, 2000 rise of fairs Verhulst, 1999 physical expansion of cities Buringh and van Zanden, 2009 Increased output of books McEvedy and Jones 1979; Bairoch, Batou, and Che`vre, 1988 growth of population and urbanization Although these documentations are informative, they fall short in: 1) Frequency; 2) Geographic coverage; 3) Ability to capture economic change directly. [5/44] COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION & ESTABLISHMENT OF MARKETS ■ BURINGH AND VAN ZANDEN’S (2009) DATA [6/44] COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION & ESTABLISHMENT OF MARKETS ■ CANTONI AND YUCHTMAN’S NEW DATA Name: Market Establishment/ Market Grant Source: The Deutsches Städtebuch, by Erich Keyser (1939–1974) Size: 2,256 German cities Description: The market grant is the official permission giving a city the right to hold a specific market. It also allows the local lord to tax trade in the market, coin money and require its use in the market. Note: One city could have more than one market grants, which gave it the right to hold multiple markets (or fairs). Advantage: 1) High frequency annual records on many economic indices, helpful for hypothesis tests. 2) More direct relationship with economic changes. [7/44] COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION & ESTABLISHMENT OF MARKETS ■ WHY IS MARKET ESTABLISHMENT A GOOD INDICATOR OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY? (QUESTION 1) Firstly, there is a high correlation between a city’s size and the granting of market right to that city. And the cities’ sizes is a commonly used measure of economic development in the premodern world. Evidence is available in Online Appendix: LINK. Secondly, 30 out of 63 cities receiving one or more market grants in the 20 years following the foundation of the first German university experience notable construction, which is another observable indicator of economic activity. Details are in Online Appendix. Finally, they consulted a report on the markets existing in Germany in 1936, Verzeichnis der Märkte und Messen im Deutschen Reich im Jahre 1936, and these two documents exhibit high matches in their records of characteristic (frequency/ good traded) of markets in the same cities. Conclusion: Granting of market right actually indicates increased commercial activity. [8/44] COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION & ESTABLISHMENT OF MARKETS ■ PLOTTING CITIES IN THE DATASET ON THE MAP [9/44] COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION & ESTABLISHMENT OF MARKETS ■ CITY INCORPORATIONS & MARKET GRANTS [10/44] COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION & ESTABLISHMENT OF MARKETS ■ CUMULATIVE NUMBER OF CITY INCORPORATIONS & MARKET GRANTS [11/44] PAPAL SCHISM & FOUNDATION OF UNIVERSITIES IN GERMANY ■ POSSIBLE CHANNELS THROUGH WHICH MEDIEVAL UNIVERSITIES HAVE SUPPORTED ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1. Produced Human Capital by training skills that are commercially useful. (Arithmetic, Geometry, Astronomy…) 2. Helped in forming networks with the Latin-speaking world, which would have promoted trading. 3. Trained a large number of students in canon and civil law, and this specific type of human capital is especially important. Development in merchant law, staffing of courts, and enforcement of contracts resolves the uncertainty, thus transaction costs in economy. (Greif, 2000) [12/44] PAPAL SCHISM & FOUNDATION OF UNIVERSITIES IN GERMANY ■ PROBLEM IN USING UNIVERSITIES AS REGRESSOR TO EXPLAIN COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION: EXOGENEITY (QUESTION 2) Papal Schism (from 1378): After the death of Pope Gregory XI in 1378, there had been two rival popes, Urban VI in Rome, and Clement VII in Avignon. Secular Lords chose to pledge allegiance to one or the other. France and Spain were loyal to the French pope, Clement VII. The Holy Roman Empire and the Italian States were loyal to Rome, i.e. Urban VI. Germany was then a part of The Holy Roman Empire, i.e. Heiliges Römisches Reich deutscher Nation. [13/44] PAPAL SCHISM & FOUNDATION OF UNIVERSITIES IN GERMANY ■ TIMELINE, BEFORE & AFTER THE FOUNDATION OF FIRST UNIVERSITIES IN GERMANY 1386 Univ. GER NO YES Cause 1. The Church wished to prevent the spread of heresy, thus constrained the establishment of universities. (Rashdall, 1895). 2. Lack of scholars: They went abroad to do their study and research. 1. Political, theological intolerance of France universities drove scholars and students back to Germany. Rome had to make up for the loss. 2. Rome had the incentive to compete with France, more specifically, with the Universities of Paris. (Rashdall, 1895). 3. Increase supply of eminent German scholars coming back from abroad. (Swanson, 1979) Result Students and scholars had to go abroad to pursue their study. Germany saw its first universities established. [14/44] PAPAL SCHISM & FOUNDATION OF UNIVERSITIES IN GERMANY ■ PAPAL SCHISM PROVIDED A NATURAL EXPERIMENT Papal Schism is a political event, orthogonal to any economic shifts. The foundation of Germany’s first universities, as a consequence of Papal Schism, is therefore exogenous to economic activities. To utilize such a natural experiment, we focus on the period around the Papal Schism. Question 2 has been answered. [15/44] PAPAL SCHISM & FOUNDATION OF UNIVERSITIES IN GERMANY ■ INCREASE OF AVAILABLE HUMAN CAPITAL OF GERMANY [16/44] PAPAL SCHISM & FOUNDATION OF UNIVERSITIES IN GERMANY ■ MOST ENROLLED STUDENTS WERE FROM NEARBY AREAS [17/44] PAPAL SCHISM & FOUNDATION OF UNIVERSITIES IN GERMANY ■ MOST ENROLLED STUDENTS WERE FROM NEARBY AREAS (CONT’D) [18/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT ■ HOW TO SET A VARIABLE MEASURING THE INFLUENCE OF THE FOUNDATION OF UNIVERSITIES? (QUESTION 3) The model set up by the authors links university proximity, and human capital, to market establishment. Assumption: medieval universities increased human capital inures in closer proximity to them. Such an assumption is supported by the empirical evidence we have just seen. Historical also provide justification: (Schwinges, 2000): Many of the first university students came from nearby regions. (Wriedt, 2000): Most scholars who became urban officeholders came from the same city where they later worked, or from neighboring cities. Thus, question 3 is answered. [19/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT ■ MODEL SETUP ℎ𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 : Human capital available to city 𝑖𝑖 at time 𝑡𝑡. To control the effects imposed by economic conditions to demand for human capital and market establishment, introduce a time trend, it works at least in a short time window around the Papal Schism: 1 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = 𝛼𝛼1 � 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑡𝑡 + 𝛾𝛾 � ℎ𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 : Number of market grants issued per 1,000 cities. Human capital is cumulative, it depends on the access to education in the past years, denote 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 as the distance to the nearest university, and consider the past 𝑛𝑛 years, we have 2 𝑛𝑛 ℎ𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = − � 𝛿𝛿𝑡𝑡−𝑗𝑗 � 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡−𝑗𝑗 𝑗𝑗=1 [20/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT ■ MODEL SETUP (CONT’D) ∆𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖 : Reduction in distance to a university of city 𝑖𝑖. ∆𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖 = 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖,𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 − 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖,𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖,𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 : The pre-schism minimum distance from city 𝑖𝑖 to a university; 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖,𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 : The post-schism minimum distance from city 𝑖𝑖 to a university. ■ PANEL DATA MODELLING 3 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 = 𝛼𝛼0 − 𝛼𝛼1 � 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑡𝑡 + 𝛼𝛼2 � 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 + 𝛼𝛼3 � 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑡𝑡 � 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 +𝛼𝛼4 � ∆𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖 + 𝛼𝛼5 � ∆𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖 � 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑡𝑡 +𝛼𝛼6 � ∆𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖 � 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 +𝛼𝛼7 � ∆𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖 � 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑡𝑡 � 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 + 𝜀𝜀𝑖𝑖,𝑡𝑡 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑖𝑖,𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 : Post-university dummy, =1 for all years after 1386. [21/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT ■ TERMS OF INTERESTS Terms Explanation ∆𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖 � 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑡𝑡 � 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 Indicates whether cities with a larger reduction in distance to a university experienced a changed trend rate of market establishment after 1386. We expect it to be positive and significant. 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑡𝑡 � 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 Indicates whether cities not experiencing changes in distance to a university nonetheless experienced a change in the trend rate of market establishment. It tests the explanatory power of universities. Should not be significant. ∆𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖 � 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑡𝑡 Indicates whether cities with a large change in distance… in 1386 had different trend rate of market establishment even before any reduction in distance occurred. It tests if the changes in market… was actually caused by shrunk distance to a university. Should not be significant. ∆𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖 � 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 Indicates if there was an immediate jump in market… in 1386. Our theory says human capital is cumulative, it contributes through the trend. Therefore it should not be significant. [22/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT ■ QUESTION 4𝟏𝟏⁄𝟐𝟐 Now we have set up tools for falsification, answer Question 4, i.e. whether universities has a strong explanatory power to commercial revolution. However, since the effect of the foundation of universities was not immediate, it must affect the time trend, which means there could be multilinearity between ∆𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖 and 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑡𝑡 . If so, the standard error of regressors will be larger than they should be, resulting in that t-tests tend to reject the null hypothesis, which makes the falsification tests less efficient. [23/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT ■ TIME SERIES MODEL Aggregate through cities in equation (3), we have the following macrolevel model: 4 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑡𝑡 = 𝛽𝛽0 − 𝛽𝛽1 � 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽2 � 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 + 𝛽𝛽3 � 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑡𝑡 � 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 + 𝜂𝜂𝑡𝑡 Similarly, 𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑌𝑡𝑡 � 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 indicates whether there is a change in the trend rate of market establishment in the pivot year, 1386, and thus is expected to be positive and significant; 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑡𝑡 indicates whether there was immediate jump in market establishment right upon the foundation of first universities in Germany, we expect it to be insignificant. [24/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT Divide the whole sample into two subgroups, by the reduction of distance to a university [25/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT [26/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT [27/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT [28/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT ■ POSSIBLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM EFFECTS With panel data model, it is possible that the establishment of market in one city reduce the possibility of the establishment of markets in near cities. So as a treatment, we consider larger units, as territories and geological cells. Territory: Territorial Lords’ land, affected by political factors. Cell: 1-degree latitude by 1-degree longitude, determined by natural factors. [29/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT Run regression at different geological levels, to exclude the general equilibrium effect [30] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT ■ PLACEBO TESTS: CHANGE PIVOT YEAR [31/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT ■ PLACEBO TESTS: CHANGE PIVOT YEAR (CONT’D) [32/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT ■ ENDOGENEITY OF UNIVERSITY LOCATION What if the university location is not exogenous? Say, is it possible that the location of universities was correlated with an unobserved variable that also stimulated economic activity around the time of the papal schism? The possible mechanism causing endogeneity suggested by the authors: 1) Local effects: Shocks in an area increases the demand for a university and markets simultaneously. 2) Geological effects: Demand for a university and economic conditions may be both correlated through different regions. [33/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT Exclude three Lords’ territories containing a university city: Heidelberg, Cologne and Erfurt. To exclude local shocks, e.g. university may be chosen to build where good economic times is anticipated. Or, a local shock can improve the economic condition, increasing The demand for a university and also market establishment. [34/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT Closer to low countries, which were richer, resulting a higher probability to set up markets Important institutional differences between east and west of the Elbe after Black Death Division into 18 states, with-in-state specification, a full set of 18 dummy variables Control longitude variation by adding new variable longitude_i*yeat_t*post_t [35/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT ■ IMPACT OF POLITICAL SHOCKS ON MARKET ESTABLISHMENT Many political changes may have affected market establishment, if such effects are very strong, it will impair our argument that medieval universities have a considerable contribution to commercial revolution. Therefore, the authors identified several possible channels through which political changes may affected the market establishment, and they deleted samples that meet certain conditions, in order to cancel the effects by those potential channels, then we can see if the former results hold nonetheless. [36/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT Cities loyal to Avignon have higher reduction in distance… they may drove some of the trend break that we find New lords has stronger incentive to formalize existing markets for symbolic purposes or to extracts rents. Cities in wars may use market rights to hurt the markets of competing cities. [37/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT ■ OTHER CHANNELS LINKING SCHISM AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY? The authors also considered the possibility that there were channels other than the foundation of universities, through which the historical event Papal Schism affected economic activity. So they undertook a falsification exercise by examining trends of market establishment in England/Wales and Italy, which were also exposed to the papal schism but experienced no significant changes in the number of universities. Due to the lack of panel data in England/Wales and Italy, they ran the placebo test using the time series equation in the form of (4), and found no significant changes in the level or trend of the rate of market establishment rates. That supports the argument that the schism didn’t affect market establishment in places that did not experience university establishment as a result of the schism. This has answered Question 4. [38/44] A SIMPLE MODEL OF UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION AND MARKET ESTABLISHMENT [39/44] UNIVERSITY TRAINING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEGAL INSTITUTIONS ■ ROMAN LAW WAS REDISCOVERED AND TAUGHT IN UNIVERSITIES Europe’s Commercial Revolution occurred just as Roman law was reestablished. In most medieval universities, both canon law and Roman law were taught. ■ WHAT IS THE MERIT OF ROMAN LAW? Before the rediscovery of Roman law, the preexisting system is customary law, which is local, highly traditional, based on kinship and superstition. On the contrary, Roman law is an authoritative yet flexible system, written, universally known across Europe. Therefore, switching towards a legal system, which is broadly applied, rule-based and written, such as Roman law, effectively reduced the uncertainty merchants faced in economics transactions. [40/44] UNIVERSITY TRAINING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEGAL INSTITUTIONS ■ TRAINING AND CAREERS OF JURISTS IN THE GERMAN LAND The authors find that among 2,000 students matriculated at the University of Cologne between 1388 and 1400, 24% studied law. Fuchs (1995) shows that 14% of Heidelberg graduates before 1450 were in law, for Cologne this number is 13%. No precise number for Erfurt, but Coing (1964) estimates that more students graduated in law from Erfurt than from Cologne or Heidelberg. Kuhn (1971) finds that in 1,627 students from Tübingen University from 1477 to 1534, around 20% served in public administration jobs. Other secular jobs for law students include judges, notary and arbitrator. Legally trained administrators and judges reduced the cost of establishing markets; more predictable adjudication reduced the uncertainty of contracting and engaging in commercial activity, increasing merchants’ demand for markets. Question 5 has been answered.[41/44] CONCLUSION ■ FROM GERMANY TO THE WHOLE EUROPE We have test our theory using data from Germany, but can the mechanism the authors suggest applied to Medieval Europe? Research Opinion Cantoni and The channel from universities to legal training, to careers Yuchtman (2013) in public administration and Church administration was clearly exhibited among the University of Bologna’s medieval graduates. Swanson (1979) From the beginning of the 13th century the law graduates of the French provincial universities dominated the personnel of the French chancery. Berman (1983), DeLong and Shleifer (1993), Epstein (2000) Public administrators, including those within the Church, helped establish the political institutions that were crucial to Europe’s medieval economic growth. Question 6 answered. [42/44] CONCLUSION ■ LET’S REVIEW THE CONCLUSION Question 1 to 6 add up to the conclusion: Medieval Universities played a causal role in expanding economic activity. ■ FURTHER QUESTION TO ASK However, this is not the end of story. One can compare this research to Murphy, Shleifer and Vishny (1991)’s QJE paper The Allocation of Talent: Implications for Growth. They argue that if the most talented people go to productive sectors (e.g. as Engineers), the economic growth will be higher due to their contribution to technology. Otherwise, if the smartest ones go to unproductive sectors (e.g. as Lawyers), it is not optimal for the society because they become rent-seekers. [43/44] CONCLUSION ■ FURTHER QUESTION TO ASK (CONT’D) Are the research by Murphy et al contradictory to Contoni and Yucheman’s? Is one of them wrong? If so, which one? Or are they both right? If so, how could it be? ■ IMPLICATION AND FUTURE This question is important because it determines the implication of the paper we have just studied: How the mechanism through which legal education has its overwhelming effects on economic growth depends on times and area. Only when we know the answer can we decide on policies about allocation of human capital. Maybe at different stages of development, society demands for different types of talents or abilities. And I think it will be an interesting topic to work on. [44/44] THANK YOU
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz