Ecology, 87(10), 2006, pp. 2523–2536 2006 by the Ecological Society of America THE INFLUENCE OF ARIDITY AND FIRE ON HOLOCENE PRAIRIE COMMUNITIES IN THE EASTERN PRAIRIE PENINSULA DAVID M. NELSON,1,6 FENG SHENG HU,1,2 ERIC C. GRIMM,3 B. BRANDON CURRY,4 1 AND JENNIFER E. SLATE5 Program in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Illinois, 265 Morrill Hall, 505 South Goodwin Ave., Urbana, Illinois 61801 USA 2 Department of Plant Biology, Department of Geology, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois 61801 USA 3 Illinois State Museum, Research and Collections Center, Springfield, Illinois 62703 USA 4 Illinois State Geological Survey, Champaign, Illinois 61820 USA 5 Department of Biology, Northeastern Illinois University, Chicago, Illinois 60625 USA Abstract. The role of climate and fire in the development, maintenance, and species composition of prairie in the eastern axis of the tallgrass Prairie Peninsula intrigued early North American ecologists. However, evaluation of the long-standing hypotheses about the region’s environmental history has been hampered by the scarcity of paleorecords. We conducted multiproxy analyses on early and middle Holocene sediments from two Illinois, USA, lakes to assess long-term climatic, vegetational, and fire variability in the region. Sediment mineral composition, carbonate d18O, ostracode assemblages, and diatom assemblages were integrated to infer fluctuations in moisture availability. Pollen and charcoal d13C were used to reconstruct vegetation composition, and charcoal influx was used to reconstruct fire. Results indicate that fire-sensitive trees (e.g., Ulmus, Ostrya, Fraxinus, and Acer saccharum) declined and prairie taxa expanded with increased aridity from 10 000 yr BP to 8500 yr BP. Between ;8500 yr BP and ;6200 yr BP, aridity declined, and prairie coexisted with fire-sensitive and fire-tolerant (e.g., Quercus and Carya) trees. After ;6200 yr BP, prairie taxa became dominant, although aridity was not more severe than it was around 8500 yr BP. Along with aridity, fire appears to have played an important role in the establishment and maintenance of prairie communities in the eastern Prairie Peninsula, consistent with the speculations of the early ecologists. Comparison of our data with results from elsewhere in the North American midcontinent indicates that spatial heterogeneity is a characteristic feature of climatic and vegetational variations on millennial time scales. Key words: charcoal; climate change; fire; grasslands; Holocene; paleoecology; pollen; tallgrass Prairie Peninsula. INTRODUCTION Unfortunately for the ecologist, the prairies of Illinois were converted into cornfields long before the development of ecology and phytogeography in America, thus forever prohibiting the satisfactory investigation of some questions of the most absorbing interest and also of considerable importance in aiding a clear understanding of American ecology and phytogeography. —Gleason (1909) Early North American ecologists were intrigued by the origin and persistence of prairie in the eastern tallgrass Prairie Peninsula (Fig. 1). They considered the region to be capable of supporting forest communities in the absence of frequent fires that were ignited by Native Americans (Gleason 1909, 1913, Cowles 1928, Transeau 1935). However, their studies of remnant prairies could not adequately explain ecological issues of interest to Manuscript received 15 November 2005; revised 16 March 2006; accepted 21 March 2006. Corresponding Editor: L. C. Cwynar. 6 E-mail: [email protected] them, such as the species composition of the original prairie communities and the environmental conditions that led to prairie establishment and maintenance. Questions and misconceptions regarding the vegetational history of the Prairie Peninsula were first addressed by what are now considered classic paleoecological studies (e.g., Wright et al. 1963, McAndrews 1966). These, along with numerous subsequent studies (e.g., Clark et al. 2001, Camill et al. 2003, Nelson et al. 2004), demonstrated that prairie expansion in Minnesota, USA occurred during the warmer and drier middle Holocene, rather than during the late-glacial period as was originally hypothesized (e.g., Gleason 1922, Transeau 1935). However, the extent of Holocene prairie expansion into the eastern Prairie Peninsula, the region of primary interest to Gleason (1909, 1913), Cowles (1928), and Transeau (1935), remains unclear. Wright (1968) extrapolated the pattern of vegetational change at Kirchner Marsh and Lake Carlson in south-central Minnesota (Fig. 1; Wright et al. 1963) by hypothesizing that prairie expanded eastward throughout the Prairie Peninsula ;8000 calibrated 14C years before present (yr BP) because of increased aridity and then gradually 2523 2524 DAVID M. NELSON ET AL. FIG. 1. Pre-European-settlement vegetational map of the midwestern United States (adapted from Küchler [1964]) with sites discussed in the text. Stars indicate locations with pollen data shown in Fig. 8b. Circles represent additional sites mentioned in the text, but not shown in Fig. 8b. Site abbreviations are: BW, Big Woods of Minnesota; CB, Chatsworth Bog; CC, Coldwater Cave; CL, Clear Lake; DL, Devils Lake; LM, Lake Mendota; ML, Moon Lake; NL, Nelson Lake; RC, Roberts Creek; SL, Steel Lake; WOL, West Olaf Lake. The Big Woods of Minnesota includes Kimble Pond, French Lake, and Wolsfeld Lake. An oak woodland between the Big Woods and the tallgrass prairie includes Lake Carlson, Kirchner Marsh, and Sharkey Lake. For detailed maps of Big Woods site locations, see Grimm (1983) and Camill et al. (2003). retreated westward during the remainder of the middle Holocene, as aridity declined. Pollen assemblages from Chatsworth Bog in central Illinois (Fig. 1) displayed an expansion of nonarboreal pollen ;8000 yr BP (King 1981) and therefore appeared to confirm the extrapolation of data from Minnesota to the eastern Prairie Peninsula (i.e., Wright 1968). However, pollen assemblages from Roberts Creek (Baker et al. 1992) and stalagmite isotopic evidence from Coldwater Cave (Dorale et al. 1992) in the central region of the Prairie Peninsula (Fig. 1) challenged the hypothesis of Wright (1968) and the results of King (1981). These studies suggested that a steep moisture gradient between southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa prevented prairie from expanding into the central and eastern Prairie Peninsula until after ;6000 yr BP. Evaluation of the two alternative ideas addressing the environmental history of the eastern Prairie Peninsula is difficult because the only available record, from Chatsworth Bog (King 1981), consists solely of pollen assemblages. Furthermore, this record has a chronology Ecology, Vol. 87, No. 10 based on bulk sediment 14C dates that may be skewed toward older age estimates (Grimm and Jacobson 2004), thus complicating comparison with other records. Understanding spatial and temporal dynamics of middle Holocene plant communities in the eastern Prairie Peninsula has implications beyond Gleason’s desire to improve our knowledge of North American phytogeography. Information on vegetational dynamics during the middle Holocene is invaluable because the prevailing climate was warm and dry, similar to projections of anthropogenic climatic change in the midcontinent of North America (IPCC 2001). Though the paleorecord does not offer a precise analog for anthropogenic change, a long-term perspective into vegetational dynamics during warm and dry conditions provides a context for anticipating future environmental changes, which will likely surpass the historical range of drought severity and variability (Woodhouse and Overpeck 1998) and cause marked vegetational shifts near forest–grassland ecotones (Allen and Breshears 1998). We analyzed sediment cores from two Illinois lakes for pollen, diatoms, ostracodes, minerals, carbonate d18O, charcoal influx, and charcoal d13C. Here we report the results and use them to infer factors influencing the establishment and maintenance of prairie communities. Reliable chronologies based on 17 accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dates facilitate comparison of our records with other well-dated paleorecords from the midwestern United States. This comparison helps clarify long-term climatic, vegetational, and fire variability near the transition between tallgrass prairie and forest. STUDY SITES The tallgrass Prairie Peninsula extended from the eastern Dakotas through north-central Illinois prior to European settlement (Fig. 1), which occurred AD 1840 in central Illinois (Transeau 1935, Anderson 1970). Our two sites are located ;130 km apart near the eastern end of this subbiome. Chatsworth Bog (40840 0 33 00 N, 88819 0 2300 W; 220 m elevation) is located between the Paxton and Gifford moraines in central Illinois. The tillplain soils of the watershed are moderately well drained (Higgins 1996). Chatsworth Bog once covered ;25 ha (King 1981), and it was connected as a second-order watershed to the south fork of the Vermillion River. Although called a ‘‘bog,’’ the site was a fen prior to drainage for agricultural use. Oxidation and humification of sediments have occurred above the drain tiles (;1 m deep); however, the sediments below the upper ;1 m are well preserved. The mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation at Pontiac, Illinois, USA, ;30 km northwest of Chatsworth Bog, were 23.78C and 87.1 cm, respectively, between 1950 and 2005 (data from the Illinois State Climatologist’s Office of the Illinois State Water Survey [available online]).7 7 hhttp://www.sws.uiuc.edu/data/climatedb/i October 2006 HOLOCENE DEVELOPMENT OF PRAIRIE PENINSULA Nelson Lake (41849 0 58 00 N, 88822 0 4800 W; 211 m elevation) is located in northern Illinois on the western flank of the St. Charles Moraine. Its watershed soils are poorly drained to moderately well drained (Deniger 2004), and the watershed forms the headwaters of a stream that flows to the Fox River. A large stand of firesensitive forest existed AD 1840, about five kilometers east of Nelson Lake on the east side of the Fox River, a major fire break (Kilburn 1959). Nelson Lake has an area of ;25 ha with a maximum depth of ;1.2 m. The mean July temperature and mean annual precipitation at Aurora, Illinois, USA, ;11 km south of Nelson Lake, were 22.98C and 89.7 cm, respectively, between 1950 and 2005 (available online).7 Prior to European settlement, the dominant vegetation in the eastern Prairie Peninsula was tallgrass prairie (Anderson 1970). Abundant prairie grasses included Andropogon gerardii, Schizachyrium scoparium, Elymus canadensis, Sorghastrum nutans, Spartina pectinata, and Hesperostipa spartea (Kucera 1992; nomenclature follows Flora of North America Editorial Committee 1993). Woody species in north-central Illinois grew near waterways and in isolated upland ‘‘prairie groves’’ (Boggess and Geis 1967). The most abundant upland trees were Quercus spp. and Carya spp. Fire-sensitive trees (Curtis 1959, Grimm 1984), such as Acer saccharum, Fraxinus spp., and Ulmus spp., were restricted to sites well protected from fire (Boggess and Geis 1967, Rodgers and Anderson 1979), such as the eastern side of water bodies (Gleason 1912, 1913). MATERIALS AND METHODS We obtained stratigraphically overlapping sediment cores from Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake using a square-rod piston corer (Wright 1991). At Chatsworth Bog, we selected a core site in a topographic low point of the former basin near the core location of King (1981) based on historical photographs. We removed the upper sediment from the plow zone with a bucket auger before retrieving the lake sediment below. Nelson Lake was cored in the center of the lake. Sediment subsamples were sieved with distilled water to isolate terrestrial plant macrofossils for AMS 14C dating. The dates were converted to calibrated ages using CALIB 5.0.1 (available online)8 with the atmospheric decadal calibration data set. For ostracode assemblage analysis, sediment subsamples were gently washed through a sieve with 150-lm openings. A minimum of 20 adult valves were identified and counted from each sample (Delorme 1970a, b, 1971). Candona ohioensis valves at Chatsworth Bog were soaked in 50% Clorox for 24 hours, triple rinsed with distilled water, and air-dried. The valves (five, on average) were then ground to a powder to create a composite sample for a given core depth for d18O 8 hhttp://CALIB.qub.ac.uk/CALIBi 2525 analysis. d18O analysis was performed at the Illinois State Geological Survey Stable Isotope Laboratory (Champaign, Illinois, USA) and the Stanford University Stable Isotope Laboratory (Stanford, California, USA). Samples were reacted with ultrapure phosphoric acid in automated Kiel devices (Finnigan, Bremen, Germany) interfaced with Finnigan MAT 252 isotope ratio mass spectrometers (IRMS, Finnigan, Bremen, Germany). The analytical precision was ,0.1ø for internal laboratory standards, and the average difference was 0.2ø for replicate samples. The relative abundance of organic matter, carbonate, and other inorganic matter was determined by loss-onignition. Mineral composition was determined by X-ray diffraction with a Scintag h-h (Scintag, Cupertino, California, USA) diffractometer following conventional procedures (Moore and Reynolds 1997). Sediment subsamples for mineral analysis were washed through a sieve with 150-lm openings to remove ostracode valves. The abundance of each mineral was quantified as the dry mass percentage of total major identified minerals, including aragonite, calcite, dolomite, potassium feldspar, plagioclase feldspar, and quartz (Hughes et al. 1994). We summarized the mineral data using principal component analysis (PCA). Freeze-dried subsamples from Nelson Lake were treated with 10% HCl and 30% H2O2 for diatomassemblage analysis. Diatoms were settled onto coverslips and mounted onto microscope slides with Naphrax (a synthetic resin dissolved in toluene). We counted 300 diatom valves per sample at 10003 magnification, except in samples with poor diatom preservation, for which a minimum of 100 valves were counted. Planktonic diatoms (those living within the water column) were identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level, whereas benthic (bottom-dwelling) diatoms were characterized as either small Fragilariaceae spp., Surirella spp., or other pennates (Patrick and Reimer 1975, Krammer and Lange-Bertalot 1991, Lange-Bertalot 1993). We summarized the diatom-assemblage data using PCA. Sediment subsamples were prepared for pollen analysis with standard methods (Fægri et al. 1989). Tablets of exotic Lycopodium spores (Chatsworth Bog) or polystyrene microspheres (Nelson Lake) were added to each sample to determine pollen densities (Benninghoff 1962). At least 300 grains were counted per sample at 4003 magnification. Pollen accumulation rates of individual taxa show similar patterns as pollen percentages, except where noted, and therefore are not presented. The pollen assemblages at Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake were divided into zones using CONISS (a stratigraphically constrained cluster analysis, Grimm 1987) and visual inspection. We used detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) to compare fossil–pollen assemblages from Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake with pre-European-settlement pollen assemblages from sites in the tallgrass prairie or deciduous forest of the midwestern United States. For 2526 DAVID M. NELSON ET AL. sites with a clear Ambrosia rise (see Fig. 6 for sources), the pollen signature of European settlement in the region (Grimm 2001, Wright et al. 2004), pollen assemblages immediately below the Ambrosia rise were included in the DCA. Only taxa with .2% abundance in at least one sample from Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake were included in the DCA. Pollen percentages of taxa with .2% abundance were recalculated prior to performing the DCA. We also compared our pollen results with other well-dated paleorecords from the midwestern United States. All statistical analyses were performed using the program PAST (version 1.27; Hammer et al. 2001; available online).9 Macroscopic charcoal particles were counted and results converted into charcoal accumulation rates (CHAR) following Nelson et al. (2004). At selective stratigraphic levels, charcoal particles were isolated for d13C analysis to estimate the relative abundance of C3 and C4 plants and help constrain our vegetational reconstruction. C3 and C4 plants possess distinct d13C compositions primarily because they use different enzymes for initial carbon fixation. C3 plants use ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate for initial carbon fixation, which discriminates more strongly against 13C than phosphoenolpyruvate, the enzyme used for initial carbon fixation in C4 plants. Each d13C sample was composed of 40 randomly selected charcoal particles, and d13C analysis was done at the University of California-Davis Stable Isotope Facility (Davis, California, USA) with an elemental analyzer interfaced with a Europa Hydra 20/20 IRMS (PDZ-Europa, Crewe, UK). The analytical precision was ,0.1ø for internal laboratory standards, and the average difference was 1.2ø for replicate samples from each core. Given the 1.2ø error, we focus on the smoothed patterns at centennial to millennial time scales in the charcoal d13C data. To estimate the relative abundance of C4 plants from charcoal d13C values, we used a two-end-member mixing model (Clark et al. 2001) based on the average d13C values of C3 (27ø) and C4 (13ø) plants (Cerling 1999). RESULTS AND INTERPRETATIONS Chronological control Seven and thirteen AMS 14C dates were obtained from Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake, respectively, to construct age–depth relationships. We fit a mixed-effect regression model (Heegaard et al. 2005) to the six youngest dates at Chatsworth Bog and used linear interpolation between the oldest two dates (Appendix and Fig. 2a). Three dates on grass macrofossils in the upper part of the Nelson Lake core were significantly older than adjacent charcoal dates (Appendix and Fig. 2b). The grass macrofossils appeared to be from Zizania aquatica, an aquatic species. We excluded these dates 9 hhttp://folk.uio.no/ohammer/past/index.htmli Ecology, Vol. 87, No. 10 from the age–depth model in favor of the charcoal-based dates, because the dated grass material could have been affected by a hard-water effect of ;600-1300 years. The 10 remaining dates from Nelson Lake were fit with a mixed-effect regression model (Heegaard et al. 2005). Sediment accumulation rates ranged from ;0.04 to 0.79 cm/yr at both sites. Aridity reconstruction We reconstructed aridity because it is the climatic variable most important for determining the distribution of prairie and forest (Changnon et al. 2002), and because it encompasses the effect of temperature on evapotranspiration. We inferred aridity variations from a suite of biotic and abiotic proxies sensitive to aridity (Fig. 3). The ratio of the ostracode taxa Candona and Cypridopsis vidua correlates with lake-level changes (Kitchell and Clark 1979, Curry 2003) because Candona spp. prefer profundal water, whereas Cypridopsis vidua is most abundant among aquatic vegetation in the littoral zone. For diatoms, benthic species increase at the expense of planktonic species when lake levels are lower (Wolin and Duthie 1999). Finally, increased detrital-mineral input indicates aridity-induced increases in landscape instability (e.g., Clark et al. 2002), and carbonate d18O increases with aridity because of evaporative enrichment (Kelts and Hsu 1978). The time spans differ among the different proxy records at each site, primarily reflecting the availability of suitable materials for the analysis of a given proxy (e.g., ostracodes are absent in the early Holocene sediments of Chatsworth Bog). These proxies display both similarities and differences in temporal patterns. As an example of similarities, peaks ;6100 yr BP and troughs ;6500 yr BP and 5600 yr BP occur in (1) the Candona : Cypridopsis vidua ratio at both sites, (2) d18O composition at Chatsworth Bog, (3) PCA2 of diatom assemblages at Nelson Lake (PCA2 explains 22.9% of the diatom variance), with higher PCA2 scores reflecting increased abundance of benthic diatoms, and (4) PCA summaries of the mineral data at both sites, with lower PCA2 scores at Chatsworth Bog (PCA2 explains 19.9% of the mineral variance) and higher PCA1 scores at Nelson Lake (PCA1 explains 55.1% of the mineral variance) reflecting higher amounts of detrital minerals, such as quartz and feldspars (Fig. 3). In contrast, stratigraphic differences exist between any two individual proxies when compared in detail. For example, although d18O and PCA2 of the Chatsworth Bog mineral data display similar fluctuations from ;6500 to 5000 yr BP, d18O remains high while PCA2 declines after ;4500 yr BP. Such differences are not surprising given that proxy sensitivity to aridity may vary through time and that each proxy may be affected by variables other than aridity, such as moisture source (d18O) (Kelts and Hsu 1978), windiness (detrital minerals) (Clark et al. 2002), and salinity (ostracodes and diatoms) (Laird et al. 1996, Curry 2003). October 2006 HOLOCENE DEVELOPMENT OF PRAIRIE PENINSULA 2527 FIG. 2. Age–depth curves, percentages of organic matter (OM), carbonate, and other inorganic matter (OIM) based on loss-onignition (mass), and lithological descriptions of the (a) Chatsworth Bog and (b) Nelson Lake cores. Age–depth models were developed for each site as described in Chronological control. The three solid circles at Nelson Lake represent dates excluded from the age–depth model. We created a composite aridity record for each site using z scores, a means of standardizing different proxies (e.g., Overpeck et al. 1997, Booth and Jackson 2003). Z scores were calculated for each aridity proxy at each site as the number of standard deviations of a sample from the mean, and z score values of all proxies from a given core depth at each site were averaged to create composite records. Prior to z score calculations, the proxy data from each site was multiplied by 1, if necessary, to ensure that aridity fluctuations in proxies with opposing signs were additive in the composite records. The composite records highlight aridity, the control common to all proxies, and mask the influence of other controls. Thus the composite aridity records should provide a more rigorous evaluation of moisture variations than any individual proxy record. More positive z scores indicate wetter conditions, and more negative z scores, drier conditions (Fig. 4). The composite aridity records from Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake display strikingly similar patterns, indicating synchronous moisture fluctuations between our sites (Fig. 4). In particular, aridity gradually increased after 10 000 yr BP to reach a peak ;8500 yr BP, and gradually decreased until ;6500 yr BP. Aridity then peaked at ;6100 yr BP, declined to a trough at ;5600 yr BP, and was relatively high after ;5000 yr BP. Vegetational change inferred from pollen assemblages Pollen assemblages show similar stratigraphic patterns between Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake, indicating regionally synchronous changes in vegetation composition (Figs. 5–7). In zone 1 (from 10 000 to 9000 yr BP) at both sites, pollen of fire-sensitive woody taxa, including Ulmus, Ostrya, Fraxinus nigra, and Acer saccharum (Curtis 1959, Grimm 1984), are relatively abundant (Fig. 5). The DCA1 score of this zone is the 2528 DAVID M. NELSON ET AL. Ecology, Vol. 87, No. 10 lowest of the pollen zones at each site because DCA1 primarily separates woody from herbaceous pollen types and these zones have a high proportion of arboreal pollen (Fig. 6). On DCA1, zone 1 at both sites overlaps with pre-European-settlement pollen assemblages from Kimble Pond (Camill et al. 2003), which was surrounded by closed deciduous forests in the Big Woods region of southern Minnesota (Grimm 1984). Vegetation composition at Nelson Lake was probably more similar to that of Kimble Pond than at Chatsworth Bog, as suggested by the higher DCA2 score at Nelson Lake, because mesic and fire-sensitive taxa (e.g., Acer saccharum and Ostrya-type) have more positive values on DCA2 than taxa with a greater tolerance of drier conditions and fire (e.g., Quercus and Carya). Around 9000 yr BP, woody taxa decline and herbaceous taxa begin to increase in the pollen diagrams of both sites (Fig. 5). The herbaceous taxa include FIG. 3. Records of proxies used to infer aridity at Chatsworth Bog (CB) and Nelson Lake (NL). Ostracode samples containing Candona spp., but no Cypridopsis vidua, were assigned a value equal to the highest ratio of any sample that contained Candona spp. and Cypridopsis vidua. The log scale of the Candona : Cypridopsis vidua ratio reduces the magnitude of data variation. Mineral percentages for the CB PCA were calculated without calcite because of a significant declining trend in carbonate after ;8.7 cal. ka BP (Fig. 2a), which resulted in inflated values for the other minerals (a ‘‘percentage effect’’); no strong declining trend in carbonate occurred at NL (Fig. 2b), so carbonate was not removed. Raw data are represented by circles and squares, and curves represent threesample moving averages of the raw data. Gaps in the diatom PCA curve of Nelson Lake represent periods of .300 years during which the sediments are void of diatoms. FIG. 4. Comparison of composite aridity records from Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake with other data. Raw data are represented by circles and squares, and the curves represent three-sample moving averages of the raw data. More positive z scores indicate wetter conditions, and more negative z scores, drier conditions. Solar insolation was calculated using Analyseries hhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/softlib/softlib.htmli. The percentage of the last glacial maximum ice area of the Laurentide Ice Sheet followed Shuman et al. (2002). The aragonite : calcite (solid curve) and carbonate d18O (dashed curve) data from West Olaf Lake (WOL) and Steel Lake (SL), respectively, indicate patterns of regional aridity in west-central Minnesota (Nelson et al. 2004). October 2006 HOLOCENE DEVELOPMENT OF PRAIRIE PENINSULA 2529 FIG. 5. Pollen percentage diagrams from (a) Chatsworth Bog and (b) Nelson Lake. Shading represents a 53 exaggeration of the raw data. The percentage of terrestrial pollen types is based on the sum of pollen from terrestrial plants. The percentage of aquatic pollen is based on the sum of pollen from terrestrial and aquatic plants. The dotted horizontal lines separate pollen zones discussed in the text. Analysts were D. M. Nelson for Chatsworth Bog and E. C. Grimm for Nelson Lake. Ambrosia, Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Chenopodiaceae/ Amaranthaceae, and Asteraceae subf. Asteroideae undiff. These pollen changes indicate a decline of closed deciduous forest and an initial expansion of prairie species throughout the region. Pollen of the fire-sensitive woody taxa from zone 1 at both sites, as well as Quercus and Carya, remains moderately abundant in zone 2, ;8900–7800 yr BP at Chatsworth Bog and 8900–7400 yr BP at Nelson Lake. Zone 2 has higher DCA1 scores than zone 1 at both sites because of higher percentages 2530 DAVID M. NELSON ET AL. Ecology, Vol. 87, No. 10 FIG. 6. DCA results of pollen assemblages from Chatsworth Bog (solid lines), Nelson Lake (dotted lines), and sites located in tallgrass prairie or deciduous forest immediately prior to European settlement (sites shown in Fig. 1). The mean DCA score for each zone (as in Fig. 5) is shown with one standard deviation from the mean. Abbreviations of pollen types included in the DCA are: Ac, Acer saccharum; Am, Ambrosia; Ar, Artemisia; As, Asteraceae subf. Asteroideae undiff.; Ca, Carya; Ch, Chenopodiaceae/ Amaranthaceae undiff.; Co, Corylus; Fr, Fraxinus sum; Ju, Juglans sum; Pl, Platanus; Os, Ostrya-type; Po, Poaceae; Ul, Ulmus; and Qu, Quercus. At Chatsworth Bog all zones are statistically different (P , 0.05) on Axis 1, but only 2 and 4 are different on Axis 2. At Nelson Lake, with the exception of zones 1 vs. 3, all zones are statistically different on Axis 1, as are zones 1 vs. 2, 1 vs. 3, 3 vs. 4, and 2 vs. 4 on Axis 2. For the same zones between Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake, only zone 4 is statistically different on Axis 1, and all zones are different on Axis 2. Pollen data from Kimble Pond and Sharkey Lake (Camill et al. 2003) were provided by P. Camill; pollen data from other sites were obtained from the North American Pollen Database hhttp://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ napd.htmli. of herbaceous pollen (Figs. 5–7). The transitions from zone 1 to zone 2 show a trend towards DCA1 scores of pre-European-settlement pollen assemblages from Lake Mendota (Winkler et al. 1986) and Devils Lake (Baker et al. 1992) in south-central Wisconsin (Fig. 6), where the vegetation was largely open Quercus woodlands and prairie (Curtis 1959). However, Quercus pollen was more abundant at the Wisconsin sites than in zone 2 at Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake. These data indicate a mosaic of prairie and woodland in Illinois, somewhat similar to that at European settlement in this region, except that the woodland patches were richer in firesensitive trees during the early portion of the middle Holocene. The DCA1 scores of pollen zone 2 at our sites are also similar to that of Wolsfeld Lake (Grimm 1983) in the Big Woods of Minnesota, but the DCA2 scores are farther from that of Wolsfeld Lake than from those of the Wisconsin sites. Beginning ;7700 yr BP at Chatsworth Bog and 7300 yr BP at Nelson Lake, prairie pollen types decline, although not to pre-9000 yr BP levels, while fire-sensitive woody taxa such as Ulmus, Ostrya, and Juglans nigra increase (Fig. 5). Pollen of Acer saccharum increases at Nelson Lake, but not at Chatsworth Bog. Corresponding to the decline in herbaceous pollen, pollen zone 3 (7700–6300 yr BP at Chatsworth Bog and 7300–6300 yr BP at Nelson Lake) at both sites is located between zones 1 and 2 on DCA1 (Fig. 6). These changes in pollen assemblages indicate a decline of prairie and an expansion of forest. About 6200 yr BP, woody taxa generally decline and prairie taxa, particularly Poaceae, increase in pollen abundance (Figs. 5–7). The DCA1 scores of zone 4 (;6200–3000 yr BP) are the highest at both sites (Fig. 6), and they trend toward those of French Lake (Grimm 1983), near the western edge of Minnesota’s Big Woods, Sharkey Lake (Camill et al. 2003) in oak woodland adjacent to the Big Woods, and Clear Lake (Baker et al. 1992) in the tallgrass prairie of north-central Iowa, USA (Figs. 1 and 6). However, Artemisia was more abundant and Poaceae less abundant at the Minnesota and Iowa sites. Zone 4 at neither site has DCA1 scores as high as October 2006 HOLOCENE DEVELOPMENT OF PRAIRIE PENINSULA 2531 FIG. 7. Non-arboreal pollen abundance (NAP; three-sample moving averages of raw data), composite aridity records, charcoal d13C and %C4 abundance estimates, and CHAR (charcoal accumulation rates) at Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake. For the d13C and %C4 graphs, the bars represent the raw data, and the curves are three-sample moving averages of the raw data. In addition to the raw CHAR data, we use a log scale to reduce the variation of the CHAR time series. the pre-European-settlement pollen assemblages from Moon Lake (Laird et al. 1996) in eastern North Dakota, USA (Figs. 1 and 6), where woody taxa were rare. These data indicate that after ;6200 yr BP the eastern Prairie Peninsula was dominated by tallgrass prairie and woody plant communities containing primarily Quercus and Carya. Despite their broad similarity in temporal patterns, as described above, differences exist between the pollen records of Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake. These differences probably reflect vegetational variation at local scales. Pollen from fire-sensitive taxa such as Ostrya, Acer saccharum, and Tilia were generally more abundant at Nelson Lake than at Chatsworth Bog, whereas pollen from more fire-tolerant taxa such as Quercus was generally more abundant at Chatsworth Bog (Figs. 5 and 6). A greater abundance of fire-sensitive taxa at Nelson Lake probably resulted from the facts that the soils are more poorly drained and that fire breaks, such as rivers, are more abundant near this site. After ;6200 yr BP, Cyperaceae pollen was more abundant at Chatsworth Bog than at Nelson Lake, which is probably related to local fen development at the former site. This interpretation is supported by the presence of aquatic snail taxa that live on or near aquatic vegetation, such as Gyraulus, Helisoma, Physa, and Valvata (Fig. 2a; Clarke 1981). Abundance of C3 and C4 plants estimated from charcoal d13C Charcoal d13C data show different temporal patterns between our two sites, suggesting local variation in the C4 plant abundance of burned vegetation. For example, C4 abundance declined from ;75% around 7600 yr BP to ;40% around 6600 yr BP at Nelson Lake, but only small fluctuations in C4 abundance occurred during this same period at Chatsworth Bog (Fig. 7). Nonetheless, several similarities in the two charcoal d13C records help enhance our vegetational reconstruction. These records reveal that C4 plants, probably C4 tallgrasses, were continually present on the landscape no later than 9000 yr BP (Fig. 7). C4 plant abundance did not increase at either site following the pollen-inferred increase in prairie vegetation ;6200 yr BP. This result seems counterintuitive given the fact that C4 grasses are abundant in tallgrass prairies today. It also contradicts 2532 DAVID M. NELSON ET AL. Ecology, Vol. 87, No. 10 a stalagmite d13C record from northeastern Iowa which suggests a large expansion of C4 plants after ;6000 yr BP (Fig. 8a; Dorale et al. 1992). The lack of a major charcoal d13C shift at our sites ;6200 yr BP probably indicates that C4 plants were relatively abundant in burned areas before that time, consistent with pollen evidence that prairie taxa were present by ;9000 yr BP. Many mesic tree taxa (C3) such as Ulmus, Ostrya, Fraxinus, and Acer saccharum, which were abundant prior to ;6200 yr BP, are fire-sensitive. Similar to the Big Woods region of southern Minnesota, a buffer zone of fire-tolerant oaks may have existed between the fire-sensitive trees and the highly flammable prairie (Grimm 1984, Camill et al. 2003). Thus, prior to ;6200 yr BP, fires that did occur in the eastern Prairie Peninsula were probably patchy. These fires primarily consumed herbaceous plants, including C4 grasses, which were likely most abundant in frequently burned areas. Unlike charcoal d13C, stalagmite d13C depends on the relative contributions of C3 trees, shrubs, and herbaceous plants, as well as C4 grasses, to soil organic matter. Therefore it is not surprising that stalagmite and charcoal d13C records show different temporal patterns of C4 plant abundance. Our pollen and charcoal d13C data together suggest that once prairie patches became established ;9000 yr BP, they coexisted with communities dominated by Quercus, Carya, and mesic deciduous woody species. Such coexistence would have been facilitated by firebreaks and spatial separation of vegetational types with different flammability and fire tolerance, similar to the landscape in southern Wisconsin (Curtis 1959) and Minnesota (Grimm 1984) prior to European settlement. Fire reconstruction Prairie ecosystems burn on annual to interannual time scales (Gleason 1913, Anderson 1990). In these systems, the high background values of charcoal accumulation rates (CHAR), along with the relatively slow sedimentation rates, make it difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish individual fire events in lake-sediment charcoal records. Thus CHAR in grasslands provide a measure of changes in relative fire importance, which reflects several controlling factors, such as fuel availability, fuel moisture, vegetational type, and/or ignition frequency (Clark et al. 2001, Brown et al. 2005). ‹ FIG. 8. Comparison of paleovegetational records. (a) Summary of vegetational changes at well-dated sites in the central and eastern Prairie Peninsula. The curves are threesample moving averages of the raw data from each site, with the exception of Roberts Creek, for which the raw data are shown because of its relatively low temporal resolution. NAP stands for non-arboreal pollen; VPDB stands for Vienna Peedee Belemnite. Stalagmite d13C data from Coldwater Cave (Fig. 1) were obtained from the NOAA paleoclimatology web site hftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/speleothem/ northamerica/usa/iowa/coldwater_cave.txti. (b) Percentage of non-arboreal pollen from well-dated lake-sediment cores spanning a northwest–southeast transect along the tallgrass prairie–forest border prior to European settlement. These sites are represented by the stars in Fig. 1: ML, Moon Lake; WOL, West Olaf Lake; SH, Sharkey Lake; KP, Kimble Pond; CB, Chatsworth Bog; NL, Nelson Lake. October 2006 HOLOCENE DEVELOPMENT OF PRAIRIE PENINSULA At Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake, CHAR increased with the initial establishment of prairie taxa after ;9000 yr BP (Fig. 7). CHAR remained overall low to moderate at both sites prior to ;7000 yr BP, which is consistent with the interpretation that fires were patchy and unimportant during the early part of the middle Holocene. Fire importance increased ;6700 yr BP at Chatsworth Bog and 7200 yr BP at Nelson Lake, as suggested by elevated CHAR values. CHAR remained relatively high for the remainder of the record at Nelson Lake, but dropped markedly ;6200 yr BP at Chatsworth Bog. Although site-specific differences in fire regimes (Gavin et al., in press; Hu et al., in press) may account for this difference between our two CHAR records, it is more likely that the CHAR decline at Chatsworth Bog resulted from the development of the lake into a fen at this time, which filtered runoff entering the basin. This interpretation is supported by the fact that, similar to CHAR, the total influx of pollen and minerals also declined at Chatsworth Bog ;6200 yr BP (data not shown). Thus, after ;6200 yr BP, low CHAR values at Chatsworth Bog resulted from sedimentary processes, whereas high CHAR values at Nelson Lake reflected increased fire importance. Fuel availability was probably not a limiting factor of fire occurrence at our sites because CHAR values were lowest prior to ;9000 yr BP, when woody species and biomass were abundant. In the eastern Prairie Peninsula, woody and herbaceous biomass was likely adequate for fire occurrence throughout the early and middle Holocene, in contrast to the northwestern Prairie Peninsula and the Great Plains, where aridity was greater and fuels were more limiting (e.g., Nelson et al. 2004, Brown et al. 2005). However, it is difficult to tease apart the relative importance of the other factors controlling fire occurrence. DISCUSSION This study provides the first multiproxy data set with solid chronologies from the eastern Prairie Peninsula for climate, vegetational, and fire reconstructions. These data allow us to address the two alternative hypotheses concerning the timing and causes of prairie establishment in the region. They also help answer questions of early North American ecologists concerning the development and persistence of prairie following the last glaciation. Pollen-assemblage and charcoal d13C data from Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake revealed that the initial pulse of prairie development in the eastern Prairie Peninsula was coeval with the early Holocene expansion of prairie in Minnesota about 9000 yr BP (Fig. 8b; Camill et al. 2003, Wright et al. 2004). The probable causes for this prairie development were increased temperature and decreased moisture resulting from high summer insolation and the waning influence of the Laurentide ice sheet (Fig. 4; Baker et al. 1992, Shuman et al. 2002). However, this pulse of prairie development 2533 lasted only ;1500 years. The abundance of trees, including fire-sensitive taxa such as Ulmus, increased after ;7700 yr BP at Chatsworth Bog and ;7300 yr BP at Nelson Lake, and the full expansion of prairie did not occur until ;6200 yr BP. Despite the nearly synchronous initial increase of prairie taxa ;9000 yr BP in Minnesota and Illinois, major differences existed in the patterns of climatic change and prairie development between these regions. For example, mineral, d18O, and magnetic data from several sites in Minnesota (Fig. 4; Camill et al. 2003, Nelson et al. 2004) indicate that maximum aridity occurred ;7800 yr BP, which led to the full expansion of herbaceous taxa adapted to relatively high moisture deficits. Following the peak aridity of the early middle Holocene, aridity gradually decreased as summer insolation declined (Fig. 4), which allowed woody plants to become more abundant in Minnesota (Fig. 8b; also see Wright et al. 2004). These data are consistent with the suggestion by Wright (1968) that aridity gradually declined in Minnesota during the middle Holocene, but they contrast with the two-step expansion of prairie in Illinois where prairie did not fully expand until after ;6200 yr BP. To the west of the tallgrass prairie at Moon Lake, conditions were dry enough to support herbaceous taxa throughout the Holocene (Fig. 8b), although the driest conditions prevailed from ;9000 yr BP to 5000 yr BP (Laird et al. 1996). Thus, considerable spatial variability existed in climatic and vegetational histories of the early and middle Holocene. The pattern of prairie development in the eastern Prairie Peninsula inferred from our new data is more complicated than previously thought. On the basis of pollen data from Roberts Creek and Devils Lake (Baker et al. 1992) and speleothem isotopic data from Coldwater Cave (Dorale et al. 1992), previous studies argued that prairie development did not occur until after ;6000 years ago. Our data, on the other hand, revealed an early pulse of prairie development that was interrupted by mesic conditions until the major expansion of prairie ;6200 yr BP. Nonetheless, the Roberts Creek data do show a small increase in non-arboreal pollen about 8500 yr BP (Fig. 8a), but the samples are widely spaced in time and a possible early pulse of prairie development may have been missed. In addition, Roberts Creek is in the hilly driftless area of northeastern Iowa, which was more forested than northeastern and central Illinois at the time of European settlement (Fig. 1). Similarly, a small increase in non-arboreal pollen occurred ;9000 yr BP at Devils Lake (Fig. 8a), even though this site was always within the deciduous forest. Webb et al. (1983) produced a series of isopoll maps for ‘‘prairie forbs’’ that showed the two-phase development of prairie in the eastern Prairie Peninsula. These maps were anchored in Illinois by King’s (1981) pollen data from Chatsworth Bog, and our study supports this interpretation of early Holocene prairie development. 2534 DAVID M. NELSON ET AL. In addition to aridity, fire may have exerted an important control on the establishment and maintenance of prairie communities in the eastern Prairie Peninsula. Our CHAR profiles from Chatsworth Bog and Nelson Lake suggest that fire activity became elevated ;5001000 years prior to the full establishment of prairie, ;6200 yr BP. Because this change in fire importance did not coincide with any major shifts in our aridity and vegetational records, it is possible that increased fire ignitions resulted in more burns, contributing to prairie expansion in the eastern Prairie Peninsula. Both Native Americans and lightning might have been important ignition sources, but evidence of ignitions beyond the historical record is conjectural. Fires may have also been important for the maintenance of prairies. For example, a marked increase in effective moisture occurred ;5800–5400 yr BP, as evidenced by changes in all proxy indicators at both of our sites (Fig. 3). This change, however, did not cause woody taxa to expand and prairie taxa to decline, probably because fires remained important. These interpretations lend support to the suggestion by early 20th century ecologists that frequent fires prevented forest communities from dominating the region (Gleason 1912, 1913, Cowles 1928, Transeau 1935). Our results have implications for understanding future climatic change and ecological response in the eastern axis of the tallgrass Prairie Peninsula. Spatial variations in early and middle Holocene climatic conditions across the Prairie Peninsula are consistent with instrumental records. For example, whereas the 1930s drought devastated native and agricultural ecosystems throughout most of the midcontinent, the 1950s and 1988 droughts were primarily restricted to the south-central and northern Great Plains, respectively (Woodhouse and Overpeck 1998). Thus, spatial variability in climatic change appears to be a common feature of the North American midcontinent on annual to millennial scales, and it is therefore prudent to anticipate a wide range of complex sub-biome ecosystem responses to future climatic change. Furthermore, our results suggest that fire regimes interacted with climatic change to exert dominant controls over vegetational dynamics in the eastern Prairie Peninsula. However, anthropogenic domination will undoubtedly surpass the ecological role of fires in any future change of the regional landscape. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS P. Mueller, J. King, M. Colburn, P. Henne, R. Graham, R. Warren, J. Fergeson, and A. Fuhrmann provided field assistance; R. Van Voorhis assisted with pollen preparation; and B. Clegg identified Chatsworth Bog snails. We thank B. Clegg, M. Farmer, P. Henne, J. Tian, A. Henderson, G. Clarke, K. Wolfe, and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on earlier versions of the manuscript. We also thank P. Camill for providing the Kimble Pond and Sharkey Lake pollen data and contributors to the North American Pollen Database hhttp://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/napd.htmli and the speleothem data archive. This research was funded by NSF EAR 99- Ecology, Vol. 87, No. 10 05327 to Hu, a Packard Fellowship in Science and Engineering to Hu, and support to Nelson by Francis M. and Harlie M. Clark Research Support Grants and the Philip W. Smith Memorial Fund. Funding for the Nelson Lake pollen studies and 14C dating was received from the Kane County Forest Preserve District and the former Illinois Department of Energy and Natural Resources. We thank Jon Duerr, former Executive Director of the Kane County Forest Preserve Commission, for facilitating our work at Nelson Lake. LITERATURE CITED Allen, C. D., and D. D. Breshears. 1998. Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: rapid landscape response to climate variation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 95:14839–14842. 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