G.J.B.B., VOL.3 (2) 2014: 203-210 ISSN 2278 – 9103 PREDICTIVE MODELS BETWEEN DIAMETER, HEIGHT, CROWN DIAMETER AND AGE OF PINUS BRUTIA TEN. IN ZAWITA AND ATRUSH DISTRICTS Mohammed Hadaet Obeyed School of Forestry, Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry, University of Duhok, Kurdistan Region-Iraq ABSTRACT The study was carried out in Natural stand in Zawita and Atrush districts. The paper presents the analysis of some characteristics of tree, following elements were analyzed: diameter at breast height, tree height, crown diameter and age of tree at breast height were measured for 200 trees of Pinus brutia Ten. in Duhok province northern Iraq. We discuss the approaches of modeling tree in order to establish the relationships between tree height with diameter at breast height, crown diameter, age of tree at breast height with diameter at breast height, and age of tree at breast height with crown diameter, regression analysis were applied. One linear and seven non-linear functions were selected for each of these relationships to select the best fit model in each one of these relationships. Comparison of the models was carried out by studying the adjusted coefficient of determination (R2), Standard error of estimated (SE. of Est) and the mean square error (MSE). The results of the study indicated that the tree height with diameter at breast height, age at breast height with diameter at breast height and crown diameter with diameter at breast height can be described by cubic function, except the relationship between ages at breast height with crown diameter can be described by quadratic function. KEY WORDS: Age of tree, Crown diameter, Dimensional relationship, Stem diameter, Tree measurements. measurements of height are not available for modeling purposes. Missing (H) may be predicted using a suitable height-diameter model. (Temesgen and Gadow, 2004). The crown of tree is the center of physiological activity, particularly gas exchange, which drives growth and development. The ability to predict (CD) from (D) provides an efficient method of obtaining an estimate of (CD). Estimates of (CD) can also be used to calculate stand canopy closure, which is important for assessing wildlife habitat suitability, fire risk, and competition for regeneration (Crookston and Stage, 1999). Tree (CD) is well correlated with tree (D) (Lockhart et al., 2005; Hemery et al., 2005). Conifers have smaller (CD) than deciduous trees, but the location of the tree is also important, such that trees in southern Duhok have greater (CD) than those in the north. Meanwhile, trees on poor sites or in open growth stands have larger (CD) than those on nutrient-rich sites or in denser stands. Total (H), and (CD) could be estimated by means of stem (D), which is easy to measure for the studies in ground-based forest inventory and stand structure determination (Turan, 2009). Foresters determine (A) by counting the growth rings of a severed tree stump or by taking a core sample using an increment borer. An increment borer is a specialized tool used to extract a section of wood tissue from a living tree with relatively minor injury to the tree. It is most often used by foresters, researchers, and scientists to determine the age of a tree. This enables the user to count the rings in the core sample to determine (A) or the growth rate of the tree. In this study, the process of measuring (D, H, CD and A) variables of Pinus brutia Ten. grown naturally in Zawita and Atrush are applied for the first time in these two regions, to see the strength of relationship between INTRODUCTION The tree diameter at breast height (D) is one of the most common and important characteristics used in forest inventory. This variable has numerous beneficial attributes: - It is easy to measure (Zhang et al., 2004), volume of tree can be estimated and have strong correlations with other tree characteristics such as tree height (H), crown diameter (CD) and age of tree at breast height (A). The measurement of (H, CD and A) variables are more difficult and time consuming than that of (D) variable. Therefore, regression analysis is one of the tools usually employed to predict relationship between two or more variables via models (equations).The distribution of trees by diameter class allows foresters to understand volume tables, stand structure, stand dynamics, and future forest yield. Individual-tree diameter growth models are among the most basic and essential components of forest growth models (Sanchez et al., 2006). Stem diameter at breast height is an important tree characteristics and an accurate prediction of tree dimensions. It has become prominent as analysis techniques, models, and other statistical tools to allow for the rapid evaluation of extensive volumes of data (Turan, 2009). Tree height is a fundamental geometrical variable for trees. Unfortunately, most measures are based on visual inspection, and they are almost always considerably biased. Generally most of methods for measuring tree height are more difficult, cumbersome and timeconsuming than measuring diameter or girth especially in dense stands. On the other hand, Tree diameter can easily be measured at low cost, but tree height data are relatively more difficult and costly to collect. Therefore, H-D models can be used to predict height where actual 203 Models between diameter, height, crown diameter and age of Pinus brutia Ten these variables with each other. Thus, the development of a relationship between (D, H, CD and A) are considered crucial in forest inventories as well as for estimating timber volume and site index and are also important variables in growth and yield modeling using an easily measured predictor variable such as (D). The aim of the present study: 1- develop regression prediction models between tree height with diameter at breast height, crown diameter with diameter at breast height, age of tree at breast height with diameter at breast height, and age of tree at breast height with crown diameter for natural pure Calabrian pine in Zawita and Atrush districts in Duhok province. 2- Select the best fit model for each one of these relationships without incurring unaffordable costs and time. MATERIALS & METHODS Study Area Pinus brutia Ten. covers extensive areas in the Eastern Mediterranean region: mainly Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, W. Syria, Lebanon and Italy; scantly N. Iraq, W. Caucasus and Crimea (Gezer, 1986; Fady et al., 2003). This species is occurring naturally only in two districts in northern Iraq, in Zawita and Atrush districts situated in Duhok province. It lies at the very northern tip of Iraq, bordered by Turkey As shown in Figure 1 .The study area for these two districts are summarized in table (1). FIGURE 1: Location of the study Area. Characteristics Coordinates Altitude Area Ecoregion Located TABLE 1: Characteristics of location in Zawita and Atrush districts. Zawita Atrush Latitude: 36° 89' 97" N Latitude: 36°83'74" N Longitude: 43° 14' 66" E Longitude: 43°34'04" E 883 -1175 m above sea level. 741- 875 m above sea level. 287 ha. 317 ha. Zagros Mountains Forest Steppe. Zagros Mountains Forest. about 13 km northeast of Duhok province about 65 km east of Duhok province health, and without visible evidence of major injury, normal trees of the stand void with disease or insect attack and free from natural injuries, such as broken tops due to wind, storm, fire. The tree is open grown and relatively free from competition of other trees generally at least 12 m from neighboring trees (Forked or top damaged trees were excluded). The following variables of the selected trees were measured: diameter at breast height (D), tree height (H), crown diameter (CD), and age at breast height (A). Measurements and Data Collection The data used in the study were obtained from the natural pure Calabrian pine in Zawita and Atrush districts. The age of trees ranged from (16) years to (66) years. A total of 200 Calabrian pine individuals were measured (one hundred tree for each district) from July to November 2012. Summary statistics, including mean, minimum, maximum, and standard deviation of each of the individual tree data sets are shown in Table (2). The tree was in good 204 G.J.B.B., VOL.3 (2) 2014: 203-210 ISSN 2278 – 9103 TABLE 2: A Summary Statistics of Field Data of Pinus brutia Ten. in Duhok province. Standard Variable Minimum Mean Maximum Range deviation D 11.40 30.35 59.70 48.30 11.47 H 4.50 13.69 23.60 19.10 4.27 CD 3.40 8.34 18.40 15.00 3.48 A 16.00 31.64 66.00 50.00 10.73 The diameter at breast height (D, cm) over bark of all of the trees were found by taking the mean of the two measurements that were made in the direction perpendicular to each other by a caliper, to the nearest 0.01 millimeter, All trees selected had (D) larger than 11.4 cm. Total tree heights (H, m) were measured, using a Haga altimeter, to the nearest 0.01 centimeter. Two crown diameters (CD, m) were measured per tree; one being the horizontal diameter of the axis of the crown which passes through the centre of the plot and the second being perpendicular to the first. The arithmetic mean crown diameter calculated from these two field measurements to the nearest 0.01 centimeter. Ages of trees at breast height (A, year) were determined using increment borers. The tool consists of a hilt, a borer bit, and core extractor. Since trees were cored at the D (diameter at breast height, 1.30 m above ground), it refer to the age at this level. The distance from solid wood to the estimated tree centre was predicted based on the annual ring widths closest to the pith. Extract a tree core by boring into the center of a tree with the appropriate sized increment borer. Slip the extractor fully through the core tube, break the core by turning the increment borer counterclockwise one-half turn and remove extractor with core. You will then be able to see a core from the bark to the pith. You can count the age of the tree by counting each annual ring increment as one year. Note that one year includes both summer wood and spring wood. Statistical Analysis In order to estimate the parameters of all models and validate the models, Minitab ver. 16 and Statigraphics plus: 5.0 programs were used. The data of a total of N = 200 trees were included in the analysis; thus, the relationships between (H-D, CD-D, A-D and A-CD) were determined. For each relationship between any two variables, eight models were used represents (linear, Quadratic, Cubic, power, Compound, Growth, Reciprocal and Logarithmic) are summarized in Table 3. One of these models is linear and others are non-linear. All parameters were found to be significant at the 5% level. To select the best fit model, eight candidate models were evaluated on the basis of the adjusted coefficient of determination (R2 adj), standard errors of estimate (SE. of est.) and mean square error (MSE). Model resulting in the largest R2 adj, least S.E. of Est. and MSE was selected as the best model. The F statistic and the significance F were then computed and the results tabulated for the best model in each of the relationships are mentioned above. Another important step in evaluating the models was to perform a graphical analysis for the best fit model to assess the appearance of the fitted curves overlaid on the data set. RESULTS & DISCUSSION This study presents relationships between tree height with diameter at breast height (H-D), crown diameter with diameter at breast height (CD -D), age of tree at breast height with diameter at breast height (A-D), and age of tree at breast height with crown diameter (A-CD) for natural pure Calabrian pine in Zawita and Atrush districts in Duhok province. For all relationships, the diameter at breast height was taken as the independent variable except relationship between (A-CD) where CD of tree as independent variable, while the (H, CD, and A) are taken as the dependent variable. Several models for fitting data were performed well and produced very similar results. To select the best fit model for each of the relationships above, the following data analysis were used: 205 Models between diameter, height, crown diameter and age of Pinus brutia Ten Calama and Montero, 2004; Dieguez et al., 2005; Sharma and Parton, 2007). According to the table 4 for prediction (H) depending on (D) for Pinus brutia Ten., eight candidate models was tested to select the best fit model depending on The R2 adj, SE. of Est. and MSE. Models (5, 6, 7, 8) was dropped from analysis, because have comparatively lower values of The R2 adj. and higher values of S.E of est. and MSE than that of other models in the set. The remaining models (1, 2, 3 and 4) nearly have the same precision for estimating height (very close to one another. The R2 adj ranging from (0.8639) in model (4) to (0.8708) in model (3). SE. of Est. ranging from (1.5760) in models (1 and 4) to (1.5358) in model (3). MSE for model (3) have the value (2.35853) lower than other models. Tree Height with Diameter at Breast Height Relationship (H-D) Tree height is an important variable which is used for preparing standard volume table (Mohammed, 2009) and form class volume table (Muzahim and Mohammed, 2007), also used for estimating site quality and for describing stand structure. As a tree increases in height, it’s metabolic and growth requirements would increase too, competition for light is important, especially in groups of trees. Measuring tree heights is costly however, and foresters usually welcome an opportunity to estimate this variable with an acceptable accuracy. Missing heights may be estimated using a height-diameter function. The trend in this study was also in concert with models formulation proposed by several findings on the relationship of height and diameter (Canadas, 2000; TABLE 4: Model statistics and parameter estimates from tree height prediction for Pinus brutiaTen. in Duhok province S.E. No. B0 B1 B2 B3 R2 adj. MSE of Est. 1 3.18388 0.346345 0.8646 1.5760 2.48367 2 2.21999 0.411195 0.0009546 0.8644 1.5734 2.47558 3 8.72572 -0.261084 0.019908 -0.0001972 0.8708 1.5358 2.35853 4 1.00146 0.769932 0.8639 1.5760 2.48383 5 6.83411 1.02217 0.8330 1.7461 3.04871 6 1.91292 0.0221591 0.8331 1.7455 3.04671 7 31.9403 -709.738 5262.16 0.8406 1.7062 2.91119 3.04339 8 -20.5335 10.2428 0.8333 1.7445 Model (3) gave the best performance for estimating (H) according to the values of the statistics. Consequently, cubic model was selected. There was a strong positive non-linear relationship between H and D (Figure 2.a). The observed height versus the predicted heights is also drawn for testing data (Figure 2.b), it show that the model (3) fits the data well. The cubic model established between these two variables was statistically significant (F = 448.189; P < 0.001) as shown in table (5). TABLE 5: The result of Analysis of Variance for cubic model to estimate H for Pinus brutia Ten. Source Regression Error Total DF 3 196 199 SS 3171.20 462.27 3633.48 MS 1057.07 2.36 F-Test 448.189 P-value 0.001 FIGURE 2: a- The relationship between H and D b- Observed vs. predicted H for selected model 2003, Avsar, 2004; Pommerening and Stoyan, 2006) Measurement of crown width is not common in forest inventories, yet this value has wide applicability in forestry. Consequently, quantification of crown width attributes is an important component of many forest Crown Diameter with Diameter at Breast Height Relationship (CD-D) Generally, the CD- DBH regressions were highly significant and showed a strong relationship between the two variables. This corroborates results reported by earlier researchers (Bragg, 2001; Pretzsch et al., 2002; Foli et al., 206 G.J.B.B., VOL.3 (2) 2014: 203-210 ISSN 2278 – 9103 growth and yield models. According to the table 6 for prediction (CD) depending on (D) for Pinus brutia Ten., eight candidate models was tested to select the best fit model depending on The R2 adj, SE. of Est. and MSE. Models (7, 8) were dropped from analysis, because have comparatively lower values of The R2 adj. and higher values of S.E of est. and MSE than that of other models in the set. The remaining models (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6) slightly have the same precision for estimating (CD). The R2 adj ranging from (0.8408) in model (6) to (0.8542) in model (3). SE. of Est. ranging from (1.3886) in model (6) to (1.3288) in model 3. MSE for model (3) have the value (1.7656) lower than other models. TABLE 6: Model statistics and parameter estimates from crown diameter prediction for Pinus brutia Ten. in Duhok province. S.E. No. B0 B1 B2 B3 R2 adj. MSE of Est. 1 -0.114067 0.278711 0.8440 1.3781 1.89919 2 2.04312 0.133578 0.00213631 0.8511 1.3432 1.8041 3 5.98491 -0.273752 0.0147768 -0.0001195 0.8542 1.3288 1.7656 4 0.239257 1.03901 0.8442 1.3739 1.88771 5 3.28046 1.02938 0.8408 1.3889 1.92894 6 1.17999 0.0291634 0.8408 1.3886 1.92833 7 24.3777 -652.466 5282.92 0.8061 1.5324 2.34823 8 -18.468 8.02355 0.7704 1.6677 2.78134 Model (3) gave the best performance according to the values of the statistics. Consequently, cubic model was selected. There was a strong positive non-linear relationship between CD and D (Figure 3.a). The observed CD versus the predicted CD is also drawn for testing data (Figure 3.b), it show that the model (3) fits the data well. The cubic model established between these two variables was statistically significant (F = 389.729; P < 0.001) as shown in table (7). TABLE 7: The result of Analysis of Variance for cubic model to estimate CD for Pinus brutiaTen. Source DF SS MS F-Test P-value Regression 3 2064.43 688.144 Error 196 346.08 1.766 389.729 0.001 Total 199 2410.51 FIGURE 3: a- The relationship between CD and D b- Observed vs. predicted CD for selected model diameter has been examined and reported by earlier researchers (Rayner, 1992; Faunt, 1992; Rose, 1993; Burrows et al., 1995; Stoneman et al., 1997; Whitford, 2002). According to the table 8 for prediction (A) depending on (D) for Pinus brutia Ten., eight candidate models was tested to select the best fit model depending on The R2 adj, SE. of Est. and MSE. Models (5, 6, 7, 8) was dropped Age of Tree at Breast Height with Diameter at Breast Height Relationship (A-D) Method of measuring the (A) of the tree at (D) is very difficult when compared with the measurement of the diameter, height, and Crown width. It also can be very expensive and take large time as well as it needs to muscular effort to extract a sample from the tree and then calculate (A). The relationship between tree age and tree 207 Models between diameter, height, crown diameter and age of Pinus brutia Ten height. The R2 adj ranging from (0.9201) in model (4) to (0.9340) in model (3). SE. of Est. ranging from (3.0222) in model (4) to (2.7564) in model (3). MSE for model (3) have the value (7.59777) lower than other models. from analysis, because have comparatively lower values of The R2 adj. and higher values of S.E of est. and MSE than that of other models in the set. The remaining models (1, 2, 3 and 4) slightly have the same precision for estimating TABLE 8: Model statistics and parameter estimates from age at D prediction for Pinus brutia Ten. in Duhok province. S.E. No. B0 B1 B2 B3 R2 adj. MSE of Est. 1 4.3452 0.899273 0.92528 2.9391 8.63839 2 8.89324 0.593285 0.00450404 0.92857 2.8665 8.21672 3 23.5792 -0.924306 0.0515988 -0.0004452 0.9340 2.7564 7.59777 4 1.59284 0.877403 0.9201 3.0222 9.13366 5 14.2054 1.02535 0.9160 3.1084 9.66201 6 2.64826 0.0251774 0.9160 3.1077 9.65776 7 81.9625 -2022.27 15993.8 0.8844 3.6471 13.3016 8 -55.4918 26.073 0.8572 4.0524 16.4219 Model (3) gave the best performance according to the values of the statistics. Consequently, cubic model was selected. There was a strong positive non-linear relationship between A and D (Figure 4.a). The observed (A) versus the predicted (A) is also drawn for testing data (Figure 4.b), it show that the model (3) fits the data well. The cubic model established between these two variables was statistically significant (F = 938.925; P < 0.001) as shown in table (9). TABLE 9: The result of Analysis of Variance for cubic model to estimate CD for Pinus brutiaTen. Source Regression Error Total DF 3 196 199 SS 21401.2 1489.2 22890.4 MS 7133.73 7.60 FIGURE 4: a- The relationship between A and D F-Test 938.925 P-value 0.001 b- Observed vs. predicted A for selected model. prediction (A) depending on (CD) for Pinus brutiaTen., eight candidate models was tested to select the best fit model depending on The R2 adj, SE. of Est. and MSE. Models (7, 8) were dropped from analysis, because have comparatively lower values of The R2 adj. and higher values of S.E of est. and MSE than that of other models in the set. The remaining models (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6) slightly have the same precision (very close to one another) for estimating (A). The R2 adj ranging from (0.8392) in model (5 and 6) to (0.8457) in model (2). SE. of Est. ranging from (4.3006) in model (5) to (4.2136) in model (2). MSE for model (2) have the value (17.7547) lower than other models. Age of Tree at Breast Height with Crown Diameter Relationship (A-CD) The process of extracting the sample from the tree is affect on its growth as it leads to a hole in the trunk of the tree, which is considered one of the disadvantages of logs during the sales process which affects the price and worth less. Based on this, it is preferable to use regression models to measure the age of the trees by using linear or non-linear models between (A) as independent variable and (CD) as the dependent variable. There are many studies investigating the relationship between A-CD (Grissino, 1995; Lindholm, et al., 1999; Peng, 2000; Vanclay, 2002; Trasobares, 2004; Macke and Mathew, 2006; Bueno, 2009). According to the table 10 for 208 G.J.B.B., VOL.3 (2) 2014: 203-210 ISSN 2278 – 9103 TABLE 10: Model statistics and parameter estimates from age at D prediction for Pinus brutia Ten. in Duhok province. S.E. No. B0 B1 B2 B3 R2 adj. MSE of Est. 1 8.0015 2.83245 0.8448 4.2352 17.9367 2 11.3828 2.01898 0.0417055 0.8457 4.2136 17.7547 3 11.456 1.99224 0.0446287 -0.000097 0.8449 4.2244 17.8453 4 6.37695 0.761287 0.8379 4.3185 18.6493 5 15.7616 1.08203 0.8392 4.3006 18.4947 6 2.75652 0.078941 0.8392 4.3005 18.4945 7 78.9049 -530.344 1201.81 0.8131 4.6360 21.4929 8 -16.6593 23.6805 0.7934 4.8747 23.7627 Model (2) gave the best performance according to the values of the statistics. Consequently, polynomial model was selected. There was a strong positive non-linear relationship between A and CD (Figure 5.a). The observed (A) versus the predicted (A) is also drawn for testing data (Figure 5.b), it show that the model (2) fits the data well. The polynomial model established between these two variables was statistically significant (F = 546.128; P < 0.001) as shown in table (11). TABLE 11: The result of Analysis of Variance for polynomial model to estimate A for Pinus brutiaTen. Source DF SS MS F-Test P-value Regression 2 19392.7 9696.34 Error 197 3497.7 17.75 546.128 0.001 Total 199 22890.4 FIGURE 5: a- The relationship between A and CD CONCLUSION At the end of the regression analysis, there was a strong positive non-linear relationship between (H-D, CD-D, AD and A-CD).It was determined that there were statistically significant (P < 0.001) and strong (R2 adj > 0.77) relationships between (H-D, CD-D, A-D and A-CD) which are significant. The corresponding F-values from analyses of variance are also significant (P < 0.001) in Calabrian pines. The strongest relationship determined was the A-D relationship (R2 adj = 0.9340) very close relationship, followed by the H-D (R2 adj = 0.8708) then CD-D (R2 adj = 0.8542) and A-CD (R2 adj = 0.8457) respectively. The results of the study indicated that the relationships between (H-D, CD-D and A-D) can be described by the cubic model, while (A-CD) relationships can be described by the second-degree polynomial model. 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