Analyses of land-cover change: spatial determinants
and driving forces, Slovakia
Juraj Lieskovský, Andrej Halabuk, Róbert Pazúr, Peter Bezák, Jana Špulerová, Marta
Dobrovodská, Tibor Lieskovský, Pavol Kenderessy, Peter Koleda,
Urs Gimmi, Matthias Būrgi, Felix Kienast,
Analyses of land-cover change: spatial determinants
and driving forces, Slovakia
1. Driving forces of abandonment of Traditional Agricultural
Landscapes in Slovakia
(Simple comparative analyse in combination with questionaires)
2. Factors affecting the preservation of Traditional Agricultural
Landscapes during the collectivization of agriculture
(Classification trees)
3. Analyze of spatial determinants of changes in agricultural land in
Slovakia after breakdown of socialism
(Boosted regression trees)
Traditional agricultural landscape
Špulerová J, Dobrovodská M, Lieskovský J, et al (2011) Inventory and classification of historical structures of the
agricultural landscape in Slovakia. Ekologia 30:157–170. doi: 10.4149/ekol_2011_02_157
Mapping the Traditional Agricultural Landscapes
from aerial photos
Špulerová J, Dobrovodská M, Lieskovský J, et al (2011) Inventory and classification of historical structures of the
agricultural landscape in Slovakia. Ekologia 30:157–170. doi: 10.4149/ekol_2011_02_157
Field mapping of representative sites
• Approximately 20 % of representative sites was selected by statistical
sampling for the Natural–settlement nodal regions of Slovakia
Špulerová J, Dobrovodská M, Lieskovský J, et al (2011) Inventory and classification of historical structures of the
agricultural landscape in Slovakia. Ekologia 30:157–170. doi: 10.4149/ekol_2011_02_157
Is there dispersed settlement?
Yes
Traditional agriculutral landscape
with dispersed settlement
Yes
Traditional agriculutral landscape of
vineyards
Yes
Traditional agriculutral landscape of
arable-land, grasslands and orchards
No
Is there a vineyard?
No
Is there an orchard?
No
Traditional agriculutral landscape of
arable-land and grasslands




Total: 1347 mosaics, 21 093 ha
Regularly managed: 637 mosaics, 12541 ha
Occasionally managed: 585 mosaics, 7121 ha
Mostly abandoned: 125 mosaics, 1431 ha
Špulerová J, Dobrovodská M, Lieskovský J, et al (2011) Inventory and classification of historical structures of the
agricultural landscape in Slovakia. Ekologia 30:157–170. doi: 10.4149/ekol_2011_02_157
Is there dispersed settlement?
Yes
Traditional agriculutral landscape
with dispersed settlement
Yes
Traditional agriculutral landscape of
vineyards
Yes
Traditional agriculutral landscape of
arable-land, grasslands and orchards
No
Is there a vineyard?
No
Is there an orchard?
No
Traditional agriculutral landscape of
arable-land and grasslands




Total: 304 mosaics, 7702 ha
Regularly managed: 120 mosaics, 4483 ha
Occasionally managed:129 mosaics, 2245 ha
Mostly abandoned: 55 mosaics, 974 ha
Špulerová J, Dobrovodská M, Lieskovský J, et al (2011) Inventory and classification of historical structures of the
agricultural landscape in Slovakia. Ekologia 30:157–170. doi: 10.4149/ekol_2011_02_157
Is there dispersed settlement?
Yes
Traditional agriculutral landscape
with dispersed settlement
Yes
Traditional agriculutral landscape of
vineyards
Yes
Traditional agriculutral landscape of
arable-land, grasslands and orchards
No
Is there a vineyard?
No
Is there an orchard?
No
Traditional agriculutral landscape of
arable-land and grasslands




Total: 258 mosaics, 1883 ha
Regularly managed: 143 mosaics, 862 ha
Occasionally managed: 82 mosaics, 723 ha
Mostly abandoned: 33 mosaics, 292 ha
Špulerová J, Dobrovodská M, Lieskovský J, et al (2011) Inventory and classification of historical structures of the
agricultural landscape in Slovakia. Ekologia 30:157–170. doi: 10.4149/ekol_2011_02_157
Is there dispersed settlement?
Yes
Traditional agriculutral landscape
with dispersed settlement
Yes
Traditional agriculutral landscape of
vineyards
Yes
Traditional agriculutral landscape of
arable-land, grasslands and orchards
No
Is there a vineyard?
No
Is there an orchard?
No
Traditional agriculutral landscape of
arable-land and grasslands




Total: 1101 mosaics, 13788 ha
Regularly managed: 330 mosaics, 4291 ha
Occasionally managed: 454 mosaics, 5035 ha
Mostly abandoned: 317 mosaics, 4462 ha
Špulerová J, Dobrovodská M, Lieskovský J, et al (2011) Inventory and classification of historical structures of the
agricultural landscape in Slovakia. Ekologia 30:157–170. doi: 10.4149/ekol_2011_02_157
• 3013 Traditional agricultural landscapes mosaics of a total
area of 44 466 ha were identified from Google Earth photos
• 598 mosaics were visited in the field
Špulerová J, Dobrovodská M, Lieskovský J, et al (2011) Inventory and classification of historical structures of the
agricultural landscape in Slovakia. Ekologia 30:157–170. doi: 10.4149/ekol_2011_02_157
Distribution and degree of management of Traditional Agricultural Landscape
types in natural-settlement nodal regions of Slovakia
49.88%
34.14%
16.11%
Lieskovský J, Bezák P, Špulerová J, et al (2015) The abandonment of traditional agricultural landscape in
Slovakia – Analysis of extent and driving forces. Journal of Rural Studies 37:75–84.
Slope as a factor of TAL abandonment
Lieskovský J, Bezák P, Špulerová J, et al (2015) The abandonment of traditional agricultural landscape in
Slovakia – Analysis of extent and driving forces. Journal of Rural Studies 37:75–84.
Soil fertility as a factor of TAL abandonment
Lieskovský J, Bezák P, Špulerová J, et al (2015) The abandonment of traditional agricultural landscape in
Slovakia – Analysis of extent and driving forces. Journal of Rural Studies 37:75–84.
Isolation as a factor of TAL abandonment
Lieskovský J, Bezák P, Špulerová J, et al (2015) The abandonment of traditional agricultural landscape in
Slovakia – Analysis of extent and driving forces. Journal of Rural Studies 37:75–84.
Accesibilty as a factor of TAL abandonment
Lieskovský J, Bezák P, Špulerová J, et al (2015) The abandonment of traditional agricultural landscape in
Slovakia – Analysis of extent and driving forces. Journal of Rural Studies 37:75–84.
Topographic factors affecting the abandonment of
Traditional Agricultural Landscapes analyzed on national
scale
Lieskovský J, Bezák P, Špulerová J, et al (2015) The abandonment of traditional agricultural landscape in
Slovakia – Analysis of extent and driving forces. Journal of Rural Studies 37:75–84.
Detailed interdisciplinary field research on 3 selected areas
Small scale meadows, pastures
and arable fields
Vineyards
Liptovská Teplička
Hriňová
Dispersed settlement/small fields
Svätý Jur
Lieskovský J, Bezák P, Špulerová J, et al (2015) The abandonment of traditional agricultural landscape in
Slovakia – Analysis of extent and driving forces. Journal of Rural Studies 37:75–84.
3.Detailed interdisciplinary field research on 3 selected areas
 Land use changes
 Sociological reserach – stakeholders
attidude and expetations, history of
landuse
 Selected groups of animals (birds,
spiders, buterfies, dragonflyes, beetles)
 Phytocenological reserach
 Pedological reserach
 Morphometric analyze of georelief
 Elaboration of Strategy for protection
and management
Lieskovský J, Bezák P, Špulerová J, et al (2015) The abandonment of traditional agricultural landscape in
Slovakia – Analysis of extent and driving forces. Journal of Rural Studies 37:75–84.
• Attitude of local inhabitants towards farming on the traditional
agricultural landscapes by themselves
Lieskovský J, Bezák P, Špulerová J, et al (2015) The abandonment of traditional agricultural landscape in
Slovakia – Analysis of extent and driving forces. Journal of Rural Studies 37:75–84.
• Degree of barrier of preselected options in ideal management of
historical agricultural landscape perceived by recent farmers (2000-2010)
Lieskovský J, Bezák P, Špulerová J, et al (2015) The abandonment of traditional agricultural landscape in
Slovakia – Analysis of extent and driving forces. Journal of Rural Studies 37:75–84.
Summary
• 41 % of the polygons are regularly managed, 42 % are occasionally
managed, and 17 % are mostly abandoned
• Slope steetpness and fertility affect the abandonment most significantly
• The accessibility is significant as a factor influencing the abandonment
in a case of TAL with dispersed settlements and TAL of arable land and
grasslands. Isolation does not play an important role.
• Main berriers in farming identified by local farmers are: problems in
market (no sale, low market prices), unfit subsidies and their complicated
administration, and lack of modern technologies
• Financial profit would motivate 40 – 65 % of inhabitants for farming at
TAL, 25 – 35 % shows no interest in farming
• CAP subsidies focused to small farmers is demanded
• TAL creates specific landscape character, which could be atractive for
turism development (agroturism, vineyard routes ect.)
Analyses of land-cover change: spatial determinants
and driving forces, Slovakia
1. Driving forces of abandonment of Traditional Agricultural
Landscapes in Slovakia
(Simple comparative analyse in combination with questionaires)
2. Factors affecting the preservation of Traditional Agricultural
Landscapes during the collectivization of agriculture
(Classification trees)
3. Analyze of spatial determinants of changes in agricultural land in
Slovakia after breakdown of socialism
(Boosted regression trees)
1950
COLLECTIVIZATION OF AGRICULTURE
• 2 287 000 ha
• More than 50% of
the area of Slovakia
2010
• 44 466 ha
• Less than 1 % of the
area of Slovakia
Lieskovský J, Kenderessy P, Špulerová J, et al (2014) Factors affecting the persistence of traditional agricultural
landscapes in Slovakia during the collectivization of agriculture. Landscape Ecology 29:867–877.
Slope steepness as a factor of the traditional
agricultural landscapes preservation
Lieskovský J, Kenderessy P, Špulerová J, et al (2014) Factors affecting the persistence of traditional agricultural
landscapes in Slovakia during the collectivization of agriculture. Landscape Ecology 29:867–877.
Soil fertility as a factor of the traditional agricultural
landscapes preservation
Lieskovský J, Kenderessy P, Špulerová J, et al (2014) Factors affecting the persistence of traditional agricultural
landscapes in Slovakia during the collectivization of agriculture. Landscape Ecology 29:867–877.
Isolation as a factor of the traditional agricultural landscapes
preservation
Banská
Bystrica
Košice
Bratislava
Lieskovský J, Kenderessy P, Špulerová J, et al (2014) Factors affecting the persistence of traditional agricultural
landscapes in Slovakia during the collectivization of agriculture. Landscape Ecology 29:867–877.
Accesibilty as a factor of the traditional agricultural
landscapes preservation
Lieskovský J, Kenderessy P, Špulerová J, et al (2014) Factors affecting the persistence of traditional agricultural
landscapes in Slovakia during the collectivization of agriculture. Landscape Ecology 29:867–877.
Comparison of traditional and collectivized fields:
TRADITIONAL FIELDS:
• Boundaries from 2010
• Land use from topographic
millitary maps 1955 – 1957
• Mosaics
COLLECTIVIZED FIELDS:
• Boundaries from 2010 (LPIS
maps)
• Land use from Corine Land Cover
map 1990
• Monocultural land-use
• Classification trees (R Statistics – R.part package)
Lieskovský J, Kenderessy P, Špulerová J, et al (2014) Factors affecting the persistence of traditional agricultural
landscapes in Slovakia during the collectivization of agriculture. Landscape Ecology 29:867–877.
Traditional vs. collectivized arable fields
• Variable importance:
• Slope: 70
• Fertility:20
• Accesibility:5
• Isolation:5
• Missclassification rate:
• Total: 0,015
• Collectivized fields:0,007
• Traditional fields:0,179
• Number of samples:
• Collectivized fields: 31469
• Traditional fields: 1549
Lieskovský J, Kenderessy P, Špulerová J, et al (2014) Factors affecting the persistence of traditional agricultural
landscapes in Slovakia during the collectivization of agriculture. Landscape Ecology 29:867–877.
Traditional vs. collectivized grasslands
• Variable importance:
• Slope:9
• Fertility:5
• Accesibility:75
• Isolation:11
• Missclassification rate:
• Total: 0,040
• Collectivized fields: 0,018
• Traditional fields:0,779
• Number of samples:
• Collectivized fields: 16 307
• Traditional fields: 493
Lieskovský J, Kenderessy P, Špulerová J, et al (2014) Factors affecting the persistence of traditional agricultural
landscapes in Slovakia during the collectivization of agriculture. Landscape Ecology 29:867–877.
Traditional vs. collectivized vineyards
• Variable importance:
• Slope: 31
• Fertility:20
• Accesibility:3
• Isolation:46
• Missclassification rate:
• Total: 0,227
• Collectivized fields: 0,187
• Traditional fields:0,362
• Number of samples:
• Collectivized fields: 818
• Traditional fields: 243
Lieskovský J, Kenderessy P, Špulerová J, et al (2014) Factors affecting the persistence of traditional agricultural
landscapes in Slovakia during the collectivization of agriculture. Landscape Ecology 29:867–877.
Traditional vs. collectivized orchrads
• Variable importance:
• Slope: 30
• Fertility: 52
• Accesibility: 10
• Isolation: 7
• Missclassification rate:
• Total: 0,070
• Collectivized fields: 0,173
• Traditional fields: 0,025
• Number of samples:
• Collectivized fields: 255
• Traditional fields: 586
Lieskovský J, Kenderessy P, Špulerová J, et al (2014) Factors affecting the persistence of traditional agricultural
landscapes in Slovakia during the collectivization of agriculture. Landscape Ecology 29:867–877.
Summary
•
After the collectivization of agriculture and transition to market
oriented economy the area of the traditional agricultural landscapes has
dropped from 2 827 000 ha to 44 466 ha.
•
The slope inclination was the main factor causing the preservation of
the traditional arable fields. They were preserved on the slopes higher
than 11 degrees.
•
There is no big difference between traditional and collectivized
grasslands. The traditional fields, located in steeper slopes, closer to the
settlements were more likely to be preserved.
•
The isolation and the slope were the main factors affecting the
preservation of traditional vineyards, but there are other (socioeconomical) factors, that played important role, but were not analyzed.
•
The isolated vineyards on steeper slopes and lower fertility soils has
bigger chance to survive.
•
The traditional orchards were preserved on less fertile soils and
closer to the isolated settlements.
Lieskovský J, Kenderessy P, Špulerová J, et al (2014) Factors affecting the persistence of traditional agricultural
landscapes in Slovakia during the collectivization of agriculture. Landscape Ecology 29:867–877.
Analyses of land-cover change: spatial determinants
and driving forces, Slovakia
1. Driving forces of abandonment of Traditional Agricultural
Landscapes in Slovakia
(Simple comparative analyse in combination with questionaires)
2. Factors affecting the preservation of Traditional Agricultural
Landscapes during the collectivization of agriculture
(Classification trees)
3. Analyze of spatial determinants of changes in agricultural land in
Slovakia after breakdown of socialism
(Boosted regression trees)
Griffiths P, Müller D, Kuemmerle T, Hostert P (2013) Agricultural land change in the Carpathian ecoregion after
the breakdown of socialism and expansion of the European Union. Environmental Research Letters 8:45024.
Griffiths P, Müller D, Kuemmerle T, Hostert P (2013) Agricultural land change in the Carpathian ecoregion after
the breakdown of socialism and expansion of the European Union. Environmental Research Letters 8:45024.
Abandonment of agricultural land
Agricultural recultivation
Statistics
Area(ha)
Number of patches
Proportion of agricultural land (%)
Part in mountains (%)
abandonment
1985-2000
2000-2010
264,946
129,690
101,116
55,926
10.88
5.45
36.63
25.51
recultivation
1985-2000
2000-2010
40,654
41,067
12,894
23,082
1.84
1.79
6.21
11.25
Variables
Biophysical
Slope(slope)
Sun radiation (solar)
Topographic position index (TPI)
Topographic Wetness Index (TWI)
Relief subgroup (mountain)
Soil fertility(fertility)
Protected areas (protection)
Climatic
Temperature (temp)
Accessibility &Isolation
Distance to forested area (forest)
Distance to regional capitals (capital)
Distance to regional capitals (regional 3 and 8)
Distance to LAU 1 centres (LAU)
Distance to roads (road)
Demographic
Population density (pop_dens)
Age index (age)
Migration (migration)
Economic activity (ec_active)
Agriculture activity (agri_active)
Flats (flats)
Derived from DEM (15 meters resolution)
Global solar radiation model (kWh)
Derived from DEM
Compound Topographic Index (CTI)
Areas that belongs to the flat or basin ge
Function of grain size distribution and soil type
All protected areas except large national parks
Average temperature in 1990-2006 interpolated 89 stations
Euclidian distance to the closest forest or shrubland
Path distance using the friction of different LU classes and DEM
Path distance using the friction of different LU classes and DEM
Path distance using the friction of different LU classes and DEM
Least accumulative cost to specific roads using DEM
Population/km2
Population over 65 y./population under 15y.
Total migration/population
Proportions of economic active people
Proportions of people working in agriculture
Number of flats build in previous decade/hectares
Pazúr R, Lieskovský J, et al. Changes in agricultural land in Slovakia after breakdown of socialism: analyze of
extent and spatial determinats. In prep.
Boosted regression trees (BRTs) are a machine learning approach that use
the technique of boosting to combine a large number of relatively simple
regression trees.
• capable to model non-linear relationships
• efficiently select relevant predictors
• insensitive to outliers
•automatically account for interactions between predictors and combine
high predictive accuracy with good interpretability of resulting input–
output relationships
•were successfully applied to evaluate the determinants of land-use change
(Müller et al., 2013; Levers et al., 2014; Cheong et al., 2014; Smaliychuk et
al., 2016)
•
Pazúr R, Lieskovský J, et al. Changes in agricultural land in Slovakia after breakdown of socialism: analyze of
extent and spatial determinats. In prep.
Abandonment of agricultural land
Agricultural recultivation
Pazúr R, Lieskovský J, et al. Changes in agricultural land in Slovakia after breakdown of socialism: analyze of
extent and spatial determinats. In prep.
Abandonment of agricultural land
Distance to capital city
Distance to forest
Average temperature
Slope steepness
Pazúr R, Lieskovský J, et al. Changes in agricultural land in Slovakia after breakdown of socialism: analyze of
extent and spatial determinats. In prep.
Agricultural recultivation
Distance to capital city
Distance to forest
Average temperature
Slope steepness
Pazúr R, Lieskovský J, et al. Changes in agricultural land in Slovakia after breakdown of socialism: analyze of
extent and spatial determinats. In prep.
Summary
• Abandonment was dominated at period 1985-2000, when it occurred on
264,946 ha, as a consequence of economic shock caused by open
markets and decline of in agricultural subsidies
•Effect EU support to agriculture was reflected in period 2000-2010, when
the 129,690 ha was abandoned and another 41,067 ha was recultivated
• Distance to capital city was the most influential variable that express the
differences between development of western, central and eastern part of
Slovakia
•Distance to forest was related to accessibility (less accessible areas
closed to forest are more likely to be abandoned and less likely to be
recultivated)
•Average temperature determined agricultural yields and overall effectivity
of farming (localities with lower average temperature were more likely to
be abandoned and less likely to be recultivated).
•Slope determined accessibility and soil fertility.
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