The Sc ottish Parliament and Scottis h Parliament Infor mation C entre l ogos .
Financial Scrutiny Unit Briefing
Labour Market update: August 2015
13 August 2015
15/42
Andrew Aiton
A briefing on the Office for National Statistics' August 2015 Regional Labour Market release for
Scotland.
The way claimant count statistics are defined has changed. The new headline figures include all
out of work Universal Credit claimants.
CONTENTS
OVERVIEW OF THIS QUARTERS STATISTICS: APR TO JUN 2015....................................................................... 3
SCOTTISH LABOUR MARKET DASHBOARD: APR TO JUN 2015 ......................................................................... 3
LABOUR FORCE SURVEY ......................................................................................................................................... 4
UNEMPLOYMENT ................................................................................................................................................... 4
EMPLOYMENT ........................................................................................................................................................ 5
ECONOMIC INACTIVITY ......................................................................................................................................... 6
CLAIMANT COUNT ..................................................................................................................................................... 7
GUEST INDICATOR: JOB POLARISATION ............................................................................................................ 12
SOURCES .................................................................................................................................................................. 14
RELATED BRIEFINGS .............................................................................................................................................. 16
2
OVERVIEW OF THIS QUARTERS STATISTICS: APR TO JUN 2015
Over the quarter Scotland saw a decrease in unemployment. However the UK as a whole saw
an increase. Employment fell over the quarter. This was mainly due to a decrease in the number
of women in employment.
Scotland has the highest economic activity rate of the four nations at almost 79%. However
there was a slight decrease over the quarter mainly due to an increase in the number of
economically inactive women.
SCOTTISH LABOUR MARKET DASHBOARD: APR TO JUN 2015
Overall
Rate
(%)
Change on
prev Qtr (%
points)
Unemployment 5.6%
Male
Rate
(%)
6.3%
-0.4
Employment
74.1%
Rate
(%)
Claimant
Count
Change on
prev Qtr (%
points)
-0.4
72.0%
-0.3
18.4%
+0.7
Rate
(%)
4.9%
76.3%
21.4%
Female
-0.4
-0.4
Economic
Inactivity
Change on
prev Qtr (%
points)
-0.4
24.2%
+0.6
+0.8
Change on
prev Month
(% points)
2.2%
0.0
*All figures are seasonally adjusted.
3
LABOUR FORCE SURVEY
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) records the official unemployment rate along with a wide variety
of other labour market statistics. It surveys a sample group of 60,000 households throughout the
UK, including around 6,000 in Scotland. LFS figures for the whole population are therefore
estimates based on this sample.
UNEMPLOYMENT
International Labour Organisation’s definition
Unemployment
Level: Any individual aged 16 and over without a job who has been
actively seeking work within the last four weeks and is available to start
work within the next two weeks
Rate: Number of unemployed individuals as a proportion of the total
number of economically active people, which includes both the
unemployed and those in work.
Scotland and UK comparison



The number of unemployed people in the UK rose by 25,000 but fell
by 13,000 in Scotland.
The Scottish unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage points over the
quarter and 0.7 percentage points over the year.
The UK unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points on the
previous quarter but fell by 0.7 percentage points over the year.
Table 1 Unemployment (16+)
Seasonally Adjusted
Quarter
Quarter
Year
Level
Year change
change
Rate
change
change
(thousands)
(thousands)
(thousands)
(% points)
(% points)
Scotland
155
-13
-19
5.6%
-0.4
-0.7
UK
1,852
+25
-221
5.6%
+0.1
-0.7
Unemployment by Gender
 Over the quarter in Scotland the decrease in the level of
unemployment was evenly accounted for by men and women.
 The unemployment rate for men in Scotland is 0.5 percentage
points higher than the UK with the female rate 0.6 percentage point
lower than the UK.
Table 2 Unemployment by Gender (16+ )
Quarter
Year
Level
change
change
(thousands)
(thousands) (thousands)
Scotland
UK
Men
Women
Men
Women
89
67
1,014
838
-6
-7
+8
+17
-10
-9
-130
-92
Seasonally Adjusted
Quarter
Year
change
Rate
change
(%
(% points)
points)
6.3%
-0.4
-0.6
4.9%
-0.4
-0.8
5.8%
+0.1
-0.8
5.5%
+0.1
-0.6
4
16+
Unemployment by Age

16-64
The unemployment rate for 16-24 year-olds in Scotland has
decreased over the year by 2.2 percentage points and is the lowest
it has been since 2008 (Apr-Jun 2008 13.1%).
Table 3 Unemployment rates by age
Not Seasonally Adjusted
16- 24
25 - 34
35 - 49
50 - 64
Year
Year
Year
Year
Rate
change Rate change
Rate
change
Rate
change
(% points)
(% points)
(% points)
(% points)
1
14.0%
-2.2
4.9%
-0.5
4.0%
-0.3
3.7%
-0.8
Scotland
UK
15.4%
-1.0 5.2%
-0.8 3.7%
-0.5
3.5%
-0.7
EMPLOYMENT
International Labour Organisation’s definition:
Employment
Level: Any individual aged 16 and over who is undertaking one hour or
more a week of paid work
Rate: Number of people in employment expressed as a percentage of all
people aged 16-64
Scotland and UK comparison
 The number of people aged 16 and over in employment in Scotland
decreased by 11,000 compared to the previous quarter.
 The employment rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points in
Scotland from the previous quarter while the UK saw a decrease of
0.1 percentage points.
Table 4 Employment (Level 16+, rate 16-64)
Seasonally Adjusted
Quarter
Quarter
Level
Year change
Year change
change
Rate
change
(thousands)
(thousands)
(% points)
(thousands)
(% points)
Scotland
2,611
-11
+28 74.1%
-0.4
+0.7
UK
31,035
-63
+354 73.4%
-0.1
+0.6
Employment by Gender




Employment levels and rates are higher for men than for women at
both Scottish and UK levels.
In Scotland the decrease in the level of employment over the quarter
was driven by 9,000 women leaving employment.
At the UK level the decrease in employment was due to a 71,000
decrease in the number of men in employment while the number of
women in employment increased by 8,000.
The Scottish employment rate for men is 1.9 percentage points lower
than the UK while the rate for women is 3.5 percentage points higher
1
These statistics on unemployment by age are not of sufficient quality to be published by the ONS as National
Statistics and are published as experimental statistics
5
than the UK.
Table 5 Employment by Gender (Level 16+, rate 16-64)
Year
Quarter
Level
change
change
(thousands)
(thousands
(thousands)
)
Men
1,324
-2
-3
Scotland
Women
1,286
-9
+31
Men
16,499
-71
+174
UK
Women
14,535
+8
+180
Seasonally Adjusted
Quarter
Year
change
Rate
change
(%
(% points)
points)
76.3%
-0.3
-0.6
72.0%
-0.4
+2.0
78.2%
-0.2
+0.4
68.7%
+0.1
+0.8
ECONOMIC INACTIVITY
International Labour Organisation’s definition:
Economic
Inactivity
Level: Any individual aged 16 to 64 who is not in employment and has not
looked for work in the last four weeks and is unable to start work within the
next two weeks.
Rate: Number of people economically inactive expressed as a percentage
of all people aged 16-64
Scotland and UK comparison


The economic inactivity rate for Scotland increased over the quarter
but fell over the year.
The Scottish economic inactivity rate is 0.7 percentage points lower
that the UK.
Table 6 Inactivity (16-64)
Scotland
UK
Seasonally Adjusted
Quarter
Year
Quarter
Level
Year change
change
change
Rate
change
(thousands)
(% points)
(thousands) (thousands)
(% points)
731
+24
-6
21.4%
+0.7
-0.2
8,990
+7
-2
22.1%
0.0
-0.1
Economic Inactivity by Gender




Economic inactivity rates are higher for women than for men.
The increase in economic inactivity is mainly due to the increase in
the number of economically inactive women.
In Scotland over the year the number of economically inactive
women has decreased by 26,000 with the number of economically
inactive men increasing by 20,000.
The Scottish economic inactivity rate for men is 1.5 percentage
points higher than the UK while the rate for women in Scotland is
3.0 percentage points lower than the UK.
6
Table 7 Economic Inactivity by Gender (16-64)
Quarter
Year
Level
change
change
(thousands)
(thousands) (thousands)
Scotland
UK
Men
Women
Men
Women
308
423
3,410
5,580
+10
+14
+41
-34
+20
-26
+57
-59
Seasonally Adjusted
Quarter
Year
change
Rate
change
(%
(% points)
points)
18.4%
+0.6
+1.2
24.2%
+0.8
-1.5
16.9%
+0.2
+0.2
27.2%
-0.2
-0.3
CLAIMANT COUNT
Claimant
Count
Last month saw a change in the way claimant count statistics are defined.
The new headline figures include all out of work Universal Credit
claimants.
All other figures used in this briefing are for the Jobseeker's Allowance
(JSA) claimant count.
This is not an official measure of unemployment but does provide accurate
information on the labour market at a local level.
Scotland and UK comparison – (including out of work Universal
Credit claimants)



The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate for July in Scotland was
unchanged from June.
The UK seasonally adjusted claimant count for July was also
unchanged from June.
The Scottish claimant count rate is 0.3 percentage points higher than
the UK rate.
Table 8 Claimant Count (including out of work Universal Credit claimants) (16-64)
Seasonally Adjusted
Month
Year change
Level
Month change Year change
Rate
change
(% points)
(% points)
Scotland
77,300
+300
-16,500
2.2%
0.0
-0.5
UK
792,400
+4,900
-217,700
1.9%
0.0
-0.6
*Data rounded to nearest 100
Job Seeker Allowance claimants by Parliamentary Constituency
Fig. 1 shows Job Seeker Allowance (JSA) claimants by Parliamentary
Constituency. Table 9 shows data on the not seasonally adjusted Job
Seeker Allowance claimants for each Scottish Parliament constituency.


Over the year most constituencies saw a decrease in the JSA claimant
rate. Aberdeen Donside, Aberdeenshire East, Aberdeenshire West,
Aberdeen Central and Aberdeen South and North Kincardine saw slight
increases.
Over the year Cunninghame South and Airdrie and Shotts saw the
biggest decrease but remain above the Scottish average.
7
Fig. 1: Jobseeker Allowance by Parliamentary Constituency:
Jobseekers Allowance
July 2015
Between 0.4% and 1.3%
Between 1.3% and 2.2%
Between 2.2% and 3.2%
Between 3.2% and 5.1%
Based on OS material with the permission of OS. SPCB 10039291
8
Table 9: Jobseekers Allowance by Parliamentary Constituency
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly Change
Annual Change
July 2015
Number
Rate
Rank
(1=highe
st Rate)
Number
Rate
(%
points)
Number
Rate
(%
points)
Aberdeen Central
981
1.5
50
42
0.1
83
0.1
Aberdeen Donside
805
1.5
50
77
0.1
172
0.3
576
1.1
62
-24
-0.1
81
0.1
340
0.7
67
17
0.1
68
0.2
292
0.6
71
5
0.0
78
0.2
Airdrie and Shotts
1,336
2.9
18
12
0.0
-671
-1.4
Almond Valley
1,007
1.8
40
47
0.1
-285
-0.5
Angus North and
Mearns
726
1.6
46
17
0.0
-43
-0.1
Angus South
748
1.7
43
11
0.0
-89
-0.2
Argyll and Bute
615
1.7
43
13
0.1
-193
-0.5
1,211
2.6
25
95
0.2
-423
-0.9
591
1.3
57
-34
0.0
-115
-0.2
685
1.6
46
-17
0.0
-234
-0.5
1,313
2.7
22
110
0.2
-444
-1.0
904
2.0
34
-14
-0.1
-518
-1.2
1,219
2.7
22
-21
-0.1
-271
-0.7
970
2.1
32
33
0.1
-199
-0.5
Coatbridge and
Chryston
1,116
2.4
27
-9
0.0
-543
-1.2
Cowdenbeath
1,231
2.7
22
57
0.1
-430
-0.9
Aberdeen South
and North
Kincardine
Aberdeenshire
East
Aberdeenshire
West
Ayr
Banffshire and
Buchan Coast
Caithness,
Sutherland and
Ross
Carrick, Cumnock
and Doon Valley
Clackmannanshire
and Dunblane
Clydebank and
Milngavie
Clydesdale
Cumbernauld and
Kilsyth
Cunninghame
North
Cunninghame
South
948
2.3
28
64
0.2
-333
-0.8
1,463
3.5
8
-10
0.0
-494
-1.1
1,670
3.9
4
40
0.1
-636
-1.4
Dumbarton
1,107
2.3
28
-22
-0.1
-327
-0.7
653
1.4
56
-15
0.0
-395
-0.8
Dumfriesshire
9
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly Change
Annual Change
July 2015
Number
Rate
Rank
(1=highe
st Rate)
Number
Rate
(%
points)
Number
Rate
(%
points)
Dundee City East
1,753
3.8
5
28
0.0
-242
-0.5
Dundee City West
1,790
3.4
12
48
0.1
-402
-0.7
Dunfermline
967
2.0
34
13
0.0
-350
-0.8
East Kilbride
1,068
2.2
31
55
0.1
-231
-0.5
East Lothian
693
1.5
50
-32
0.0
-262
-0.5
Eastwood
324
0.8
66
7
0.0
-80
-0.2
Edinburgh Central
673
1.0
65
-35
-0.1
-520
-0.8
Edinburgh Eastern
1,047
2.0
34
-7
0.0
-648
-1.2
1,208
1.8
40
-14
0.0
-859
-1.3
797
1.6
46
-23
-0.1
-494
-1.0
387
0.7
67
-38
-0.1
-320
-0.6
544
1.1
62
-11
0.0
-414
-0.8
547
1.3
57
-34
-0.1
-320
-0.8
Falkirk East
947
1.8
40
-23
-0.1
-486
-1.0
Falkirk West
1,151
2.3
28
-21
0.0
-418
-0.8
854
2.0
34
-21
0.0
-411
-0.9
1,711
3.5
8
-51
-0.1
-210
-0.4
Glasgow Cathcart
1,460
2.8
20
-69
-0.2
-436
-0.9
Glasgow Kelvin
1,470
2.1
32
-77
-0.1
-273
-0.4
Glasgow Maryhill
and Springburn
2,422
5.1
1
-75
-0.2
-190
-0.4
Glasgow Pollok
2,060
4.0
3
-65
-0.1
-436
-0.8
Glasgow Provan
1,841
3.7
7
-79
-0.1
-382
-0.7
1,614
3.2
14
-94
-0.2
-375
-0.7
1,640
3.5
8
-36
0.0
-371
-0.7
1,676
3.4
12
109
0.2
-212
-0.5
1,452
3.0
16
-5
0.0
-322
-0.7
Edinburgh
Northern and Leith
Edinburgh
Pentlands
Edinburgh
Southern
Edinburgh
Western
Ettrick, Roxburgh
and Berwickshire
Galloway and
West Dumfries
Glasgow
Anniesland
Glasgow
Shettleston
Glasgow
Southside
Greenock and
Inverclyde
Hamilton, Larkhall
and Stonehouse
10
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Monthly Change
Annual Change
July 2015
Number
Rate
Rank
(1=highe
st Rate)
Number
Rate
(%
points)
Number
Rate
(%
points)
419
0.7
67
8
0.0
-239
-0.5
1,986
3.8
5
165
0.4
-331
-0.6
Kirkcaldy
2,147
4.4
2
101
0.2
-309
-0.6
Linlithgow
1,117
1.9
38
9
0.0
-428
-0.7
1,379
3.1
15
138
0.3
-78
-0.2
810
1.6
46
-43
-0.1
-509
-1.0
700
1.5
50
-7
0.0
-422
-0.9
628
1.2
59
-4
-0.1
-124
-0.3
1,426
2.9
18
-26
-0.1
-514
-1.1
309
1.9
38
-29
-0.1
-52
-0.3
North East Fife
561
1.2
59
17
0.1
-127
-0.2
Orkney Islands
52
0.4
73
-2
0.0
-54
-0.4
1,657
3.5
8
-59
-0.1
-329
-0.6
529
1.2
59
-21
0.0
-179
-0.4
524
1.1
62
4
0.0
-245
-0.5
707
1.7
43
-55
-0.1
-141
-0.3
1,063
2.5
26
-36
-0.1
-296
-0.7
1,479
3.0
16
19
0.1
-335
-0.6
Shetland Islands
69
0.5
72
-11
0.0
-26
-0.1
Skye, Lochaber
and Badenoch
306
0.7
67
-32
0.0
-127
-0.2
Stirling
719
1.5
50
-33
-0.1
-428
-0.9
744
1.5
50
10
0.0
-64
-0.1
1,353
2.8
20
1
0.0
-502
-1.0
75,287
2.2
38
0.0
-21,684
-0.6
723,980
1.8
-9,991
0.0 -271,855
-0.6
Inverness and
Nairn
Kilmarnock and
Irvine Valley
Mid Fife and
Glenrothes
Midlothian North
and Musselburgh
Midlothian South,
Tweeddale and
Lauderdale
Moray
Motherwell and
Wishaw
Na h-Eileanan an
Iar
Paisley
Perthshire North
Perthshire South
and Kinrossshire
Renfrewshire
North and West
Renfrewshire
South
Rutherglen
Strathkelvin and
Bearsden
Uddingston and
Bellshill
Scotland
UK
11
GUEST INDICATOR: JOB POLARISATION
Scotland ‘s Economic Strategy highlights that the “share of people
employed in high-paid and low-paid jobs [is] increasing relative to those in
medium-paid jobs.” This is known as job polarisation. There are a number
of explanations as to why this occurs but the most commonly mentioned is
the substitution of technology for mid-range jobs which tend to be semiskilled medium paid jobs. These jobs tend to involve routine tasks which
can be easily automated, for example production or administrative jobs.
A recent paper from the Fraser of Allander Institute looks at job
polarisation in Scotland. The paper splits jobs into 10 deciles based on
people’s weekly gross income with the 1st decile containing the lowest paid
jobs and the 10th the highest paid jobs.
Change over time
Between 2001 and 2010 the number of mid-income jobs decreased by
almost 63,000 while the number of low-paid jobs increased by 46,000 and
the number of high-paid jobs increased by almost 119,000. In terms of the
overall share of job between 2001 and 2010 mid-range jobs fell from 37%
to 33% of total jobs. The Fraser of Allander paper highlights that job
polarisation was occurring before 2008 and that this downturn had no
“significant impact on the overall trend.”
Due to the way jobs are classified the data from 2011 onwards is not
comparable to the earlier data. The data from 2011 to 2014 shows that
while the number of jobs increased across all income deciles the biggest
increase were seen in the lower and higher deciles. This would suggest
that polarisation is continuing.
Fig 2: Proportion of jobs by income decile
2010
31
Deciles 1-2
2001
30
33
Deciles 3-6
37
36
Deciles 7-10
33
12
Who does it affect?
The occupations which are in the lower deciles tend to be in industries
which have a higher number of young people. The paper shows that 20%
of people employed in low-income jobs were aged between 16 and 24
compared to 2.2% in the higher wage jobs.
The paper also highlights that because woman are more likely to be in lowincome or mid-range jobs they are more likely to be affected by job
polarisation such as admin and secretarial occupations..
What is the potential impact of job polarisation?
The most stated effect of the job polarisation is people’s ability to move up
the job ladder, known as “job mobility”. There are two main points to
consider when looking at job mobility and polarisation.
Firstly the increase in the number of high pay jobs offers an opportunity to
those in mid-level jobs to potentially increase their earnings.
Secondly as the number of mid-level jobs decreases there is less
opportunity for people to move from low paid jobs to mid-level jobs.
However the paper highlights that there have been no studies on this topic.
One of the issues the report demonstrates is that low paid jobs in the
services sector tend not to lead to progression. This could be because
these jobs offer less professional development than jobs in other industries
such as manufacturing, construction or health services. These sectors tend
to have a greater ‘culture of training’ with use of apprenticeships and
continuing professional development.
13
SOURCES
Nomis, Claimant count, [Online]. Available at: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/articles/894.aspx
[Accessed 12 August 2015]
Office for National Statistics. (2015a) Labour Market Statistics, August 2015 [Online]. Available
at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/august-2015/index.html
[Accessed 12 August 2015]
Office for National Statistics. (2015b) Regional Labour Market Statistics, August 2015 [Online].
Available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-labour/regional-labour-marketstatistics/august-2015/index.html [Accessed 12 August 2015]
Office for National Statistics. (2015c) Claimant Count [Online]. Available at:
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/ [Accessed 12 August 2015]
Office for National Statistics. (2015d) Annual Population Survey [Online]. Available at:
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/ [Accessed 12 August 2015]
Scottish Enterprise, Scotland’s labour market: ‘job polarisation’ and inclusive growth, June 2015
[Online] Available at:
https://www.strath.ac.uk/media/departments/economics/fairse/fecvol39no1/Scotland%E2%80%
99s_labour_market,_%E2%80%99job_polarisation%E2%80%99_and_inclusive_growth.pdf
[Accessed 11 August 2015]
Scottish Government, Scotland’s Economic Strategy 2015 [Online], Available at:
http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0047/00472389.pdf [Accessed 11 August 2015]
14
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15
RELATED BRIEFINGS
SB 15-20 Labour Market July 2015 update
SB 13-80 Labour Market Statistics
Labour Market visualisations page on the Scottish Parliament website
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contents of these papers with MSPs and their staff who should contact Andrew Aiton on
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Every effort is made to ensure that the information contained in SPICe briefings is correct at the
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or otherwise amended to reflect subsequent changes.
Published by the Scottish Parliament Information Centre, The Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh,
EH99 1SP
www.scottish.parliament.uk
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