2. Food production and
population growth
2. Food production and
population growth
a. Who was Thomas Malthus and why did he see
hunger as inevitable?
b. Was Malthus ever influential?
c. Are Malthusians still influential?
d. Can we feed a growing population without doing
irreversible damage to the environment?
e. Is Africa facing an eco-Malthusian food crisis
today?
f. Do Malthusians try to reduce population growth?
g. Do Malthusians argue we should reduce food
consumption?
Politica economica delle risorse strategiche - Giacomo Branca, Universitá della Tuscia
2. Food production and
population growth
a. Who was Thomas Malthus and why did he see
hunger as inevitable?
– English economist, 1798, An Essay on the Principle
of Population: food production will never stay ahead
of population growth because of fixed assets
constraints (land can be expanded slowly, while
population grows exponentially).
– War, plague, illness, famine recurring tragedies:
aggregate inability of Earth to keep pace with human
fertility
– Was he right?
• Yes, population increased exponentially (it was
1/6 of today’s population), 1 to 6 billion
• No, frequency of premature death from hunger
and famine did not increase. Increased life
expectancy (in England from 40 to 80 yrs)
• Perhaps,
as
these
gains
cannot
be
environmentally sustainable. Expected 9 billion by
2050, a Malthusian limit could be reached
Politica economica delle risorse strategiche - Giacomo Branca, Universitá della Tuscia
2. Food production and
population growth
Politica economica delle risorse strategiche - Giacomo Branca, Universitá della Tuscia
2. Food production and
population growth
b. Was Malthus ever influential?
– Yes:
• among political elites in England in 19th century
• Professor at British East India Company training
college, enabled an indifferent attitude toward the
“inevitable” famines, e.g. India, Ireland (1845-49)
…..Irish parents having too many children
– However:
• Malthus prediction was failing
• Land constraint was progressively lifted beginning
in 19th century (application of modern science to
farming, synthetic nitrogen fertilizer and improved
seed varieties  increased ag. productivity 10
times in 20th century)
• “real” price of food declined (discounted for
inflation) despite population growth and
consumption increases
Politica economica delle risorse strategiche - Giacomo Branca, Universitá della Tuscia
2. Food production and
population growth
b. Was Malthus ever influential? (continue)
– However:
• He assumed birthrates remain high, failing to
anticipate the reduction in family size (wealthier and
more urbanized societies)
• Reduction in fertility rates in industrial society,
slow down of population growth (declining value of
having large families for unskilled farm labor,
concentrate education on fewer children better
payoff, children surviving infancy, later marriage)
– E.g. population shrinking in some European
countries (Estonia 2.1 1.2 children/woman),
India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico (emerging
countries)
– UN peak population prediction: 9 billion instead
of 12 billion
• Doubly wrong: slowing population growth even in
regions where food is more abundant than ever
before.
Politica economica delle risorse strategiche - Giacomo Branca, Universitá della Tuscia
2. Food production and
population growth
c. Are Malthusians still influential?
– Not really….
• Famine 1975! (1967): W.&P. Paddock predicted
India would never be able to feed its growing
population, mistake to give food aid….BUT U.S.
delivered food aid in the 1960s and the donor
community facilitated the “green revolution”
(boosted ag productivity)
• The population bomb (1968): P. Ehrlich predicted
hundreds millions would die in the 1970s
(excessive population growth)
• World watch Institute (1995): increased income &
per capita food consumption & food demand (higher
level of import grain for animal feed in China,
international grain prices increase, increased
hunger in poor importing African countries)….China
still a net importer, food price spike 2008 episodic…
Politica economica delle risorse strategiche - Giacomo Branca, Universitá della Tuscia
2. Food production and
population growth
d. Can we feed a growing population without doing irreversible
damage to the environment?
– Environmental components to Malthusians argument
• Too many dry lands and forests cleared for farming
• Too much water (ground/surface) used for irrigation
…water constraints, augmented by soil erosion, the loss of
cropland to nonfarm uses, a plateauing of yields in major
producing areas, and CC, are making it more difficult to
expand world food production….(Lester Brown, July 2013)
• Biodiversity losses
– Food production increase in the short-run,
environmental constraints (desertification..) in the
long-run will reduce productivity & Malthusian
collapse (population larger at that time…)
– Have we exceeded Earth capacity for sust. food production?
• Overshooting and collapse of societies….
– E.g. Maya collapse in central America. Only prescientific societies? Innovation potential in advanced
societies
Politica economica delle risorse strategiche - Giacomo Branca, Universitá della Tuscia
2. Food production and
population growth
e. Is Africa facing an eco-Malthusian food crisis today?
– Serious environmental damage in SSA
• Expand arable land, boost food production to keep
pace with population growth  forest loss & habitat
destruction
• Reduced fallow times  depletion of soil nutrients
and decline average crop yields, reduced food
production/person (e.g. maize reduced by 14%,
1980-2010)
• Increased number of food insecure (< 2.100
calories/day): 300 million (1992)  450 million
(2006). Chronically undernourished: 645 million by
2020
Politica economica delle risorse strategiche - Giacomo Branca, Universitá della Tuscia
2. Food production and
population growth
e. Is Africa facing an eco-Malthusian food crisis today?
(continue)
– In Africa, does the pessimistic eco-Malthusian
prediction seem true?
• No, it is not a Malthusian trap (food production in
Africa is far less than the potential for the region….)
• African farmers use almost no fertilizer (1/10 as
European farmers), only 4% irrigated cropland,
most cropped area is not planted with improved
seeds
• Cereal yields are 1/5 as high as in developed
countries
• Africa is failing to keep up with population growth
because too little has been invested in developing
its potential (only 5% of budget is spent in ag.
investments, 60% of citizens depend on farming for
income & employment)
• Public policy crisis more than vindication of Malthus
Politica economica delle risorse strategiche - Giacomo Branca, Universitá della Tuscia
2. Food production and
population growth
Asia and
Pacific
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Source: Henao and Baanante 2006
2. Food production and
population growth
f. Do Malthusians try to reduce population growth?
– 20th century, ‘family planning’ encouraged
• World watch Institute (1975): USA & Canada to
export grains only to developing countries adopting
measures on population control
• ‘70s – ’80s: “supply side” efforts to bring down
fertility.
– E.g. China: one-child family policy
– Access to modern contraception
• ‘90s: “demand side” approach (reducing desire for
more children)
– Income growth, increased child survival,
promotion of education & employment
opportunities for girls (forestall immediate
marriage and childbearing)
Politica economica delle risorse strategiche - Giacomo Branca, Universitá della Tuscia
2. Food production and
population growth
g. Do Malthusians argue we should reduce food
consumption?
– Yes, alternative to fertility control is reduced food
consumption/capita
• Food activist Frances Moore Lappe (1971): Diet for
a Small Planet – grains should be used to prevent
starvation in poor countries and not to feed animals
for meat production
– E.g. proteins consumed by cattle, 21 times
greater than what is finally available in beef for
human consumption
• However this has limited practical effects:
– in a market economy, reduced demand for feed
implies reduced grain production….
– and even if not: who will take the expense of
shipping the surplus to reach hungry people in
remote areas of developing countries?
– In Africa, vegetarian is not an option (not enough
rainfall to grow cereals), goats&cattle needed
Politica economica delle risorse strategiche - Giacomo Branca, Universitá della Tuscia
2. Food production and
population growth
g. Do Malthusians argue we should reduce food
consumption? (continue)
– In developed countries, eating less meat reduces
pollution
• Increased animals population (cattle, pigs, chickens,
goats, sheep) to produce milk, meat, eggs
• Feeding&processing: large demand on land&energy,
generates GHGs (18% of all GHGs, more than
transport)
• GHGs from: cutting of forests for pasture,
planting/cultivating crops for animal feed, fertilizer
production, transport of livestock products, digestive
systems of ruminant animals (CH4) and animal
manure (NO2)
• See FAO report (2006): Livestock’s Long Shadow
http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/a0701e/a0701e00.HTM
Politica economica delle risorse strategiche - Giacomo Branca, Universitá della Tuscia
2. Food production and
population growth
Resources:
• Paarlberg R., Food Politics, chapter 2
• Pingali P. (2011), Malthus is still wrong: we can feed a world
of 9 billion http://www.slideshare.net/PrabhuPingali/pingaliasian-society-agricultural-economists2011
Politica economica delle risorse strategiche - Giacomo Branca, Universitá della Tuscia