The Aging of the American Labor Force:
Working into the Golden Years
Lisa Boily, CCP
Senior Economist
2016 New York State SHRM Annual Conference
September 19, 2016
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
About the BLS
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The BLS is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal
Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics
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and local governments, businesses, labor organizations
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BLS provides key economic data…
Statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Labor
Provides key economic data
• Employment and unemployment
• Inflation (CPI, PPI)
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Roadmap for today…
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Labor force projections 2014 – 2024
Employment by age group, industry, and occupation
Unemployment and labor force status by age group
Earnings by age group
Educational attainment by age group
Illness and injury statistics by age group
Additional resources from the BLS!
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Employment Outlook: 2014-24
Population and Labor Force Growth
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Population and Labor Force Growth Slows
Annual rates of change
2.3%
Civilian non-institutional
population aged 16 and
over
2.1%
1.9%
Labor force
1.6%
1.4%
1.1%
1.3%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
1964-74
1974-84
1984-94
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
1994-2004
2004-14
0.5%
Projected
2014-24
Baby Boomers Enter 65+ Age
Group
Thousands of people, noninstitutional population, projected 2014-24
16-24
-1,467
25-34
3,238
35-44
45-54
55-64
4,470
-3,291
1,217
65+
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
16,978
Declines in 45-54 Year Olds As Baby
Boomers Exit this Group
Noninstitutional population, projected 2014-24
16-24
-3.8%
Total noninstitutional
population growth = 8.5%
25-34
7.7%
35-44
45-54
55-64
11.3%
-7.7%
3.1%
65+
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
37.8%
Percent
Labor Force Participation
Continues to Decline
100
80
60
40
81.0
Men
69.2
58.7
62.9
Total
38.7
66.2
60.9
57.0
55.8
2014
Projected
2024
Women
20
0
1964
9
1974
1984
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
1994
2004
The Labor Force Is Aging
Percent distribution
100%
11.9
80%
21.7
18.6
22.9
60%
26.9
40%
20%
0%
10
15.6
21.8
24.8
19.4
55 and older
45 to 54
24.5
20.8
22.0
26.2
21.8
21.9
22.5
16.5
15.1
13.7
11.3
1994
2004
2014
Projected
2024
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
35 to 44
25 to 34
16 to 24
Decline in Labor Force of Youth and
45-54 Year Olds
Thousands of people, projected 2014-24
16-24
-2,797
25-34
2,688
35-44
45-54
3,467
-2,225
55-64
65+
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
1,652
5,064
Older Labor Force Grows the Fastest
Percent change projected 2014-24
16-24
-13.1%
25-34
7.9%
35-44
45-54
55-64
10.7%
-6.5%
6.5%
65+
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Total labor force
growth= 5.0%
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
60.6%
Making sense of an ever-changing economy
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Employment
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
In 1994, Manufacturing industries had the
largest employment
Thousands of wage and salary jobs, 1994
17,020
Manufacturing
16,258
State and local government
13,491
Retail trade
12,174
Professional and business services
10,977
Health care and social assistance
10,100
Leisure and hospitality
6,910
Financial activities
5,247
Wholesale trade
5,095
Construction
4,428
Other services
3,701
Transportation and warehousing
3,018
Federal Government
2,738
Information
1,895
Educational services
Utilities
Mining
15
689
577
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
S
Service providing
Goods providing
In 2014, service-providing industries
had the most employment
Thousands of wage and salary jobs, 2014
State and local government
Professional and business services
Health care and social assistance
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
Manufacturing
Financial activities
Other services
Construction
Wholesale trade
Transportation and warehousing
Educational services; private
Information
Federal government
Mining
Utilities
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
19,134
19,096
18,057
15,365
14,710
12,188
7,980
6,394
6,138
5,826
4,640
3,417
2,740
2,729
844
553
Service providing
Goods producing
Are there more older people in the workplace?
Percent increase in employment by age 1994 - 2015
130
Age 65 and over
122
Age 55 to 64
21
Age 16 and over
0
17
20
40
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
60
80
100
120
140
Top Ten Industry Groups in 2015
16 years and older
Median age
Health care and social assistance
42.9
Retail trade
37.7
Manufacturing
44.4
Leisure and hospitality
31.2
Educational services
44.0
Accomodation and food services
30.0
Professional and technical services
43.1
44.4
Financial activities
42.7
Construction
43.6
Other services
0
4,000
8,000
12,000 16,000 20,000 24,000
Employment (in thousands)
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Top Ten Industry Groups in 2015
55 to 64 years
Health care and social assistance
Manufacturing
Educational services
Retail trade
Financial activities
Professional and technical services
Construction
Public administration
Transportation and warehousing
Other services
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Employment (in thousands)
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
4,000
Top Ten Industry Groups in 2015
65 years and older
Health care and social assistance
Retail trade
Educational services
Professional and technical services
Financial activities
Manufacturing
Other services
Leisure and hospitality
Construction
Management, administrtion, and waste services
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Employment (in thousands)
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
4,000
Top Ten Occupational Groups in 2015
16 years and older
Median age
Office and administrative support
42.5
Management
46.9
40.2
Sales and related
43.3
Transportation and material movement
Education, training, and library
43.1
Healthcare practitioners and technical
42.9
Production
42.9
Food preparation and serving related
29.5
41.5
Construction and extraction
43.5
Business and financial operations
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Employment (in thousands)
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
20,000
Top Ten Occupational Groups in 2015
55 to 64 years
Management
Office and administrative support
Sales and related
Transportation and material movement
Heathcare practitioner and technical
Education, training, and library
Production
Business and financial operations
Construction and extraction
Building and groundscleaning and maintenance
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Employment (in thousands)
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
4,000
Top Ten Occupational Groups in 2015
65 years and older
Management
Sales and related
Office and administrative support
Education, training, and library
Transportation and material movement
Business and financial operations
Heathcare practitioner and technical
Personal care and service
Building and groundscleaning and maintenance
Production
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Employment (in thousands)
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
4,000
Full-time employment by age group
Percent
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
16+ years
55 - 64 years
1994
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
2004
65+ years
2015
Part-time employment by age group
Percent
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
16+ years
55 - 64 years
1994
25
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
2004
65+ years
2015
Unemployment
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Unemployment by age group
Percent
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1994
1997
2000
2003
16+ years
27
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
55 - 64 years
2006
2009
65+ years
2012
2015
Duration of unemployment by age group, 2015
65 years or older
55 to 64 years
16 years and older
27 or more weeks (percent of unemployed)
Less than 5 weeks (percent of unemployed)
0
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Labor force participation rate by age group
Percent
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1994
1997
2000
16+ years
29
2003
2006
55 - 64 years
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
2009
65+ years
2012
2015
Earnings
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Median weekly earnings of full-time 65+ age group surpasses overall
average in 2013
$1,000
55-64 years
$900
$800
$700
65 years and over
$600
$500
16+ years
$400
$300
1994
31
1997
2000
2003
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
2006
2009
2012
2015
Education
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Degree attainment by age group
1994
100
19%
24%
80
60
40
34%
34%
24%
20%
16%
23%
19%
13%
Age 25
and over
Age 55 - 64
Age 65
and over
0
2015
10%
10%
High school
graduate, no
college
28%
31%
Some college
or associates
degree
28%
27%
Bachelor's
degree or
higher
34%
31%
26%
Age 25
and over
Age 55 - 64
Age 65
and over
37%
38%
20
33
Less than a
high school
diploma
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
15%
35%
23%
Illness and Injuries
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Incidence rates of nonfatal occupational injury and illness cases with days away from work,
job transfer, or restriction, by private industry sector, 2014
Transportation and warehousing
2.3
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting
1.2
1.8
Construction
1.5
1.3
0.6
Health care and social assistance
1.2
0.9
Arts, entertainment, and recreation
1.2
0.9
Administrative and waste services
1.1
Wholesale trade
1.1
Retail trade
1.0
Manufacturing
1.0
Real estate and rental and leasing
0.9
Other services (except public administration)
0.9
Accommodation and food services
0.9
1.2
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.7
Utilities
0.9
1.0
0.8
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction
0.5
0.6
Educational services
0.6
0.2
Information
0.6
0.2
Professional and technical services
0.3
Management of companies and enterprises
0.3
Finance and insurance
0.2 | 0.0
0.0
Days of job transfer or restriction only cases rate
0.1
Days away from work cases rate
0.2
1.0
2.0
Incidence rate
(per 100 full-time workers)
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
3.0
4.0
Slips, trips, and falls
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Falls, slips, and trips generally rise with age
120
Nonfatal occupational injuries and illnesses involving days away from work per 10,000 fulltime workers, private industry, 2014
100
80
60
40
20
0
All ages
16-19
20-24
25-34
35-44
Total injuries and illnesses involving days away from work
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— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
45-54
55-64
Falls, slips, trips
65 and
over
Slips or trips without a fall are relatively flat
across age groupings
Nonfatal occupational injuries and illnesses involving days away from work per 10,000 fulltime workers, private industry, 2014
50
45
40
35
Falls, slips, trips
Slip or trip without fall
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
All ages
38
16-19
20-24
25-34
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
35-44
45-54
55-64
65 and
over
Falls to lower levels are also relatively flat
across age groupings
50
45
40
35
Nonfatal illnesses and injuries involving days away from work per 10,000
full-time workers, private industry, 2014
Falls, slips, trips
Falls to lower level
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
All ages
39
16-19
20-24
25-34
35-44
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
45-54
55-64
65 and
over
Falls on the same level rise with age
50
45
40
35
Nonfatal illnesses and injuries involving days away from work per 10,000
full-time workers, private industry, 2014
Falls, slips, trips
Falls on same level
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
All ages
40
16-19
20-24
25-34
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
35-44
45-54
55-64
65 and
over
What does this all mean for HR
and how can BLS help?
Benefit access, all private industry workers, March 2015
(All Workers = 100 percent)
Family leave
Paid
Flexible workplace
Unpaid
6%
12%
87%
Unmarried domestic partner benefits
Defined benefit survivor benefits
Same sex
Opposite sex
Same sex
Opposite sex
10%
10%
37%
32%
www.bls.gov/ncs/ebs/benefits/2015
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Health care benefits
— U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
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BLS Internet site
Publications
• News releases, bulletins, articles, brochures, special publications
Information specialists in New York and around the
country
Special queries upon request
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Questions
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Meet Your BLS Economists!
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Lisa Boily, CCP
Senior Economist
Bruce Bergman
Supervisory Economist
Cassidy Canzani
Senior Economist
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
646-264-3619
646-264-3623
646-264-3618
Specialty Areas: Compensation
and Benefit Programs
Specialty Areas: Media contact,
injury and illness statistics
Specialty Areas: Employment
and Unemployment
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Thank You!!
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…for your participation and attention!!!
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Contact Information
Lisa Boily – Sr. Economist
New York-New Jersey Information Office
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
646-264-3619
[email protected]
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