259 CHAPTER VIII. REFORMS AND PERFORMANCE OF THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR A. INTRODUCTION. THE CUBAN INDUSTRY: EVOLUTION AND SITUATION AT THE END OF THE 1980s1 An incipient process of industrialization was evident in Cuba as the 1950s drew to a close. This process reflected the country’s specialization in the elaboration of primary goods and its focus on tourism, as well as the weakness of the domestic market. In the early 1960s, the break in economic ties with the United States and subsequent linking up with the CMEA countries prompted a process of industrial development and diversification in the subsequent decade; however, this trend was strongly tied to the nation’s sugar industry for obvious trade-related reasons. An effort was made during the 1960s to promote the industrialization of the country, but an active policy was only put into place during the 1970s with the aim of converting the manufacturing industry into the driving force of national economic growth. The amount of resources allotted for industrial development, especially in the 1980s, boosted manufacturing production, whose growth rate was an annual 5%, which allowed the industry to account for roughly 25% of gross domestic product by the end of that decade. Progress in achieving import substitution was moderate execpt for activities that were developed in relation to the sugar industry, which allowed 60% of sugar mill needs to be met by domestic production. During the second half of the 1980s, the country’s total imports of goods and services represented approximately 40% of GDP and in 1989, intermediate goods, primarily destined for industrial use, accounted for 67% of total overseas purchases. Cuba’s growing ties with the CMEA led to the adoption of an industrial development model different from those of other Latin-American countries. While clearly there was a trend toward inward growth, it was not the result of a deliberate protectionist approach to the domestic market, especially in the case of final consumer goods. Rather, this process was due to the insufficiencies and high costs of supplies from the socialist countries (construction materials), domestic hurdles faced by the Cuban economy (electric power generation), or the needs of export specialization (sugar and nickel). The break in ties with the United States, beginning in the 1960s, raised the need for adjustment imperatives that sacrificed many of the efficiency considerations common to market economies with largely unrestricted access to supplies from international markets. Some of the problems faced in rearticulating external productive ties included the stark differences in the previously existing stock of capital goods and those available from new sources and the growing multiplicity of technologies or inventories of replacement parts. 1 In this chapter we use industry and manufacturing interchangeably, except when otherwise stipulated. The sugar industry, which was dealt with extensively in the first chapter of this third section, is not included. 260 As a result, it was necessary to use equipment developed in the CMEA countries that aside from frequently proving to be technologically behind the best practices used in the West, was designed to deal with conditions that were different from—and often diametrically opposed to—those existing in Cuba. Structural lags and inefficiencies tended to be magnified by the large size of plants and their overspecialization largely arising out of the division of tasks imposed by five-year trade plans, an excessive consumption of energy sources—which were abundant in the former Soviet Union— and the dependency this arrangement implied in terms of inputs, replacement parts and capital goods. Thus, the pattern of industrialization beginning in the 1970s was marked by a limited diversification of production and an export structure that specialized in traditional products with only very modest surpluses of other goods available for overseas sales. Furthermore, two interrelated factors changed the economic calculation used in assigning investments. The first consideration was the use of administered prices in most commercial transactions with CMAE member states, a practice that tended to imply various types of cross subsidies. The second ingredient was that when seeking equipment, Cuba had to settle for what was available from the supplier countries and such machinery often could not be fully adapted to the country’s specific needs. In addition, there was a great deal of flexibility in the way socialist countries financed Cuba’s trade deficits2, a situation that on one level favored capital formation and the development of manufacturing in Cuba, but on another plane resulted in a less disciplined approach in choosing technologies and investment projects, which is particularly evident today when it is necessary to rearticulate ties with the West. Between mid 1970s and late 1980s, investment in manufacturing (excluding the sugar industry) fluctuated at around 20% of total investment. A significant part of capital formation was focused on the two sectors deemed top priorities for the domestic and external markets. As a result, between 1960 and 1990, sugar and energy complexes (see the sections dealing with these two sectors elsewhere in this book) absorbed no less than 8% of total investment in the Cuban economy. On a sectorial level, the focus was on promoting: i) agroindustrial integration, which led to multiplier effects on other agriculture-related sectors such as the fertilizer, pesticide, animal feed, packaging and machinery industries; ii) the development of an industry based on sugarcane by-products, which are now used for a wide variety of applications including as an alternative energy source; iii) the steel industry and boosting the production of machine tools primarily designed to meet the equipment needs of sugar and agriculture in general; iv) the building materials industry with an eye toward covering the country’s housing and infrastructure needs; and v) the pharmaceuticalbiotechnological industry, which later achieved competitiveness thanks to the technological innovations and developments on the island3. In brief, some of the main structural characteristics of industry at the end of the 1980s were the following: i. 2 Considerable dependence on external sources of raw materials and components for products earmarked for the domestic market and imports of inputs tied to exports. For example, during the five-year period of 1981-1985, an agreement was reached with the socialist countries to extend 4.00 billion rubles in credits on terms that were very favorable for Cuba. 3 For a more detailed description of progress achieved in the industrialization of Cuba, see Figueras, 1994 and 1994. 261 The country’s industrial plants and equipment were largely characterized by technological obsolescence, oversized facilities and difficulties in acquiring spare parts and other hurdles to their normal use. iii. An industrial structure with little domestic linkages, dominated by large-scale companies that displayed an excessive degree of vertical integration, thus leaving little room in which smaller enterprises could function4. iv. Diminished plant efficiencies and flexibilities due to technological reasons, excessive machinery, a lack of inputs and other restrictions. Low levels of development of complementary industrial services, which existing plants were v. largely left to provide a practice that led to additional inefficiencies. vi. Distortions in the characteristics and breakdown of management-level personnel with an excessive number of professional and technically skilled workers combined with a shortage of employees with experience in marketing, finances and business administration and management. vii. Highly differentiated priorities in allocating foreign currencies and energy inputs arising out of the foreign stranglehold stemming from the breakdown in economic relations with the CMEA countries. viii. Industrial specialization that was a vestige of relations with the CMEA countries, which had often been detrimental to Cuban interests. ii. Cuban industry began the 1990s in extraordinarily difficult circumstances. The problems faced in the macroeconomic sphere had a major impact on manufacturing and industry’s structural and operating deficiencies became quite evident between 1989-1993. Manufacturing output (excluding the sugar industry) fell 68% in real terms, fixed-capital accumulation slipped 32% below 1989 levels and the use of installed capacity did not surpass 30%5. Manufacturing output contracted 37% during this period, a much less significant decline than the setbacks reported in production, a gap that is probably a result of the plunge in imports of intermediate goods used in the productive process. In 1994, a recovery related to emergency measures adopted beginning in mid 1993 began, while more structural reforms designed to return the country to the path of sustained growth began to have an effect. It is hoped that measures such as down-sizing companies, the liberalization of foreign investment, the decentralization of some decision-making processes and a system for perfecting company operations will allow for a recovery in the process of capital accumulation and give way to higher rates of industrial growth. Nevertheless, by 1999 manufacturing output had yet to return to the real production levels registered in the late 1980s. The rest of the chapter has been organized in the following manner. We begin with an analysis of the linkage between the priorities implied by the adjustment and both macroeconomic and institutional reforms, as well as the connections between the main programs and transformations undertaken in manufacturing during the 1990s. In section C, we provide an overview of how 4 In other words, while other countries were moving toward a productive structure in which small enterprises occupied a growing role, the exact opposite was the case in Cuba. 5 The decline in overall industrial production (mining and quarries, sugar, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water) was less dramatic (61%) due to a less negative performance by the sugar sector, whose weight in total industrial activity grew from 14% in 1989 to 17% in 1993. 262 manufacturing has evolved during the “Special Period” starting with the general modification of the productive structure through a range of meso- and macroeconomic measures. This section also includes an assessment of the effect these developments have had on the productivity and international competitiveness of Cuban manufacturing. Later, in section D, we undertake an analysis of how each sector of industry has evolved. Our breakdown was organized in relation to the institutional sectoral structure currently in place in Cuba. In other words, we followed the lead of the Cuban government’s criteria for dividing productive industries between specific government ministries: the ministries for the Food Industry (Minal), Light Industry (Minil), Basic Industrywith particular emphasis in nickel operations(Minbas), machinery and electronics (SIME), building materials (Micons) and the medical and pharmaceutical industry (the Public Health and Scientific Research Ministry). Also included is a small section on the current role and potential of small-scale businesses. In section E we offer a few considerations on the prospects of the manufacturing sector and the challenges facing industrial policy in Cuba. We stress macroeconomic constraints, the need to perfect industrial restructuring, the role of foreign trade and selective import substitution and finally, the development of small and medium-sized industries as well as their linkage with large enterprises. The section concludes with a summary and our main conclusions. B. MACROECONOMIC REFORMS AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY Changes in Cuba’s manufacturing industry should be examined in light of the macroeconomic adjustments undertaken since the early 1990s. The immediate aim of policies in this field has been to reestablish macroeconomic balances, but also to include more thoroughgoing reforms, such as the opening to foreign direct investment that, taken as a whole, is having sweeping effects on the industrial sector. One of the chief mechanisms for achieving changes in the microeconomic sphere is the demand that companies balance their foreign-exchange budgets. This measure leads to an increasing focus on production for export, tourism and liberalized industrial markets. The fundamental goal is to boost foreign-currency generation and rebuild the export sector even at the cost of temporarily reducing production of final consumer goods for the domestic market. In this regard, a priority has been placed on tourism and related industries, the production of sugar, foodstuffs, nickel, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology. Specific policies are being designed and implemented that correspond to the characteristics and peculiarities of each industry on the level of technology, administration, labor, credit and wage issues. The instrumentation of these reforms has been particularly fast paced in sectors most closely linked with foreign investment such as basic industry, machine tools, telecommunications and tourism-related endeavors (Marquetti, 1996). With the global objective of improving efficiencies and competitiveness, industrial policy in the 1990s has sought to address two main issues. The first of these refers to the restrictions imposed by the overall process of adjustment in which industry has had to passively adapt to the need to reestablish basic macroeconomic balances. In other words, rather than pursuing a formal industrial 263 policy per se, the idea has been to implement a survival strategy in response to the crisis in the first half of the decade, followed by (from 1995 to 1999) the pragmatic application of measures primarily geared toward supporting those activities capable of generating foreign currencies. The second issue deals with the strategic importance of certain fields of industry that can satisfy essential consumption needs or expand the country’s import capacity. The above-mentioned strategic approaches have translated into a number of distinct measures. To begin with, major changes have been made to the institutional framework. Secondly, actions have been taken to improve competitiveness and industrial development. Lastly, at the microeconomic level emphasis has been placed on recovering production levels and raising competitiveness and efficiencies in priority companies and activities. In the following pages we will describe the main actions undertaken during the “Special Period”; later, section D contains a detailed analysis of their characteristics and effects on each industry. The opening to foreign investment in the 1980s marked the beginning of the reforms aimed at restructuring the external sector. The subsequent changes made to foreign-investment legislation in 1995 brought the Cuban regime more in line with the most liberal practices in the Americas and marked the relaunching of an external sector increasingly focused on Western markets. Foreign investors are now allowed to form wholly owned enterprises in practically all areas of the economy as officials seek to attract investment that can facilitate access to technology, capital or markets6. The areas of manufacturing activity most favored by foreign investors are nickel, soaps and detergents, perfumes, lubricants and food items and tobacco. Most other foreign investment is focused on tourism, telecommunications and oil. In mid 1999, associations involving foreign capital totaled 362, with one-third of them in manufacturing. The law allowing the creation of free trade zones and industrial parks adopted in 1996 is another example of efforts to attract foreign capital (see the chapter on “International Economic Relations”). The decentralization and relative autonomy of decision-making with regard to production and investment led to the partial elimination of a planning system based on defining targets and material allocations (raw materials, other inputs and foreign currency). Within the industrial sector, the decision-making process is broken down in keeping with existing hierarchical structures between corporate management, industry-wide bodies, ministries and the Council of State. New foreign currency self-financing schemes have been put into place, which assure greater company autonomy. In previous years, resource, input and capital requirements had to be presented to the government, which then allocated them in accordance with physical production goals; lax budgetary restrictions afforded companies almost automatic access to such resources. The prices of inputs and of final products incorporated considerable subsidies aimed at reducing the price of the basket of basic goods, whereas those of nonessential items such as cigarettes and alcoholic beverages were kept high to offset the cost of such subsidies, a practice that remains in place. 6 A detailed description of Legal Decree 77 can be found in CEPAL (1996 and 1995) and Alvarez (1996). Regarding the promotion of investments in Cuba. See ONUDI (1996). 264 Today companies providing goods and services must draw up a foreign-currency statement of income and current expenditures (including debt-servicing costs) and capital7. These statements include the contributions and wage, dividend and tax payments made by foreign investors. Foreignexchange allocations are centralized, but their management is not. The companies subject to this foreign-currency self-financing arrangement have tended to display a competitive edge. Such enterprises must demonstrate their autonomous economic and financial viability and achieve efficiency and competitive parameters that are similar to those prevailing in international markets and perform in line with market norms (Marquetti & García Alvarez, 1999). The foreign-currency rationing system has played a crucial role in financial reorganization and the recovery of sectors and companies tied to the external sector. The system has promoted more disciplined management practices and has been further strengthened by limiting access to credit, which was not the case in the past. Bank financing now tends to conform to market criteria so that loans bear precise interest rates must be backed by guarantee, and each credit request is subject to technical valuations of credit worthiness. In recent years, Cuban banks have accounted for a growing percentage of credit activities alongside foreign-financial institutions, thus contributing to the industrial recovery. In 1998, the domestic financial system issued US$544 million dollars in foreign-currency denominated loans, 54% of total foreign-currency denominated credit and a 41% increase compared to 1997. Major changes have also occurred on the level of marketing, an activity in which manufacturing companies were not previously engaged. Now such companies can assume responsibility for commercial ties with their customers, which is a factor in their competitiveness, especially in the domestic market in foreign currencies. Thus, Cuban companies are trying to obtain a competitive edge with regard to other domestic enterprises and imports. In 1992, the State monopoly on foreign trade was eliminated; today there are more than 300 companies (compared to a mere 50 in 1989) that are involved in foreign-trade transactions, a major increase from the 28 companies engaged in such operations in 1997. At the end of 1994, the Free Industrial and Artisan Markets System was established, which specializes in the direct marketing of final goods with prices determined by supply and demand. As a result, networks of retail shops, street fairs and public markets were created to sell any surpluses above and beyond the production plan. Furthermore, independent producers and artisans can even sell their wares in the shopping areas operated by the Internal Commerce Ministry, whereas government-run companies are only allowed to sell surpluses that do not affect the supply of Statesold goods. The past three years have witnessed a marked expansion of sales in these markets, but they still represent a small percentage of total production (see the appendix to chapter I in the first section of this book). The aim of the industrial down-sizing program is to raise industrial efficiency levels and generate savings, particularly in the case of companies with significant foreign currency needs that often arise out of an intensive use of energy and imported inputs. The basic mechanism consists of adapting productive capacity to the supply of scarce inputs and real market demand. In practice, the government’s rescaling policy can include a rationalization of installed capacity (both in terms of 7 Public/private-sector joint ventures and State-owned enterprises that do not receive foreign currency from their own activities, but do receive such resources from State allocations must also submit their foreign-currency budgets. 265 physical and human capital), the relocation of production, a division of operations, a partial or total shutdown of installations, a shortening of shifts and the introduction of technological, productive and Entrepreneurship upgrading8. While in theory the program should be applied to all manufacturing activities, important variations have arisen in terms of the depth, intensity and degree of progress in its implementation, depending on the specific conditions of each company and industry (see section D later in this chapter). In general terms, the policy of industrial rescaling should basically cover three phases (Marquetti 1996 and Rodríguez 1996). The first involves determining production capacity, which needs to be streamlined in terms of competitive and technological positioning, company or sector priorities, the extent of demand and growth potential. There is considerable idle capacity as production levels remain depressed and physical assets are either obsolete or run down from lack of maintenance. This situation suggests that further investments to replace physical assets will be needed over time. The second stage consists of jointly determining with company managers the specific needs of each enterprise and the best means for achieving the necessary adjustments in production. Specific measures and goals regarding capacity, production, export, employment and efficiency levels are set on a case-by-case basis. During the third stage, company operations are transformed through measures ranging from the total or partial closing of facilities and layoffs to the adoption of new production methods, reconversion of equipment and the use of new technologies. In some cases, the process of rescaling plants has led to layoffs. Efforts have been made to soften their impact through a variety of measures to make adjustments compatible with higher social objectives. Sometimes, workers are transferred to other companies, become self-employed or join agricultural cooperatives. If they become unemployed, they continue to receive up to 60% of their wages (depending on their length of service) and access to all social benefits. Business management remains a significant microeconomic weakness and will assume a growing importance as the Cuban economy becomes more exposed to international competition. Strong impetus has therefore been given to higher education and postgraduate programs related to business administration as well as research and courses focused on industry needs. At the same time, industry-university cooperation has been stepped up with encouraging results. One interesting approach has been to organize self-improvement courses taught by government ministry officials and representatives of foreign corporations. Efforts to constitute groups of companies with an eye toward promoting international competitiveness are slowly generating positive results. The emergence of new State-run economic entities such as corporations, business groups and alliances that in coordination with groups of companies has established a new top tier of business management in charge of designing production policies and strategies, coordinating inter-company cooperation, promoting the introduction of new technologies, undertaking market studies and commercial promotion while seeking sources of financing and business projects involving foreign investors. A program has recently emerged from within companies run by the Armed Forces aimed at enhancing business performance. The Management Up-grading System is primarily geared toward enhancing microeconomic efficiencies by taking better advantage of resources. Enterprises are 8 For a detailed description of the initiatives and priorities adopted, see Rodríguez (1996). 266 provided greater room for decision-making in such matters as worker incentives, a point that will be taken up in greater detail later in this section. At the end of 1999, only a handful of companies had been authorized to participate in this program. A gradual reduction over the past five years in subsidies needed to cover company losses offers evidence of the progress achieved thanks to this new approach to the management of manufacturing enterprises. The 1999 budget allotted 1.10 billion pesos for such purposes (16% less than in 1998), with 55% of that total earmarked for the sugar industry and 29% for agriculture. The remaining 16% of this budget item was absorbed by 25 companies in basic, light and machine tool industries as well as 36 local enterprises largely engaged in retail sales, transportation and construction. Labor incentives. Measures have been taken to compensate the wages of different groups of workers with payments that are increasingly made in foreign currencies. These incentives are awarded for achieving certain production levels or quality standards not only on the level of an individual’s performance, but for departments or the company as a whole. An effort has also been made to sustain the level of social benefits available prior to the “Special Period”. Wage incentives in pesos include bonuses, payment in keeping with final results and when production surpasses target levels. Foreign-currency incentives take the form of both direct and indirect payments that allow workers to make purchases in special shops to which the preferential exchange rate is applied (INIE, 1997). Payment is also made in kind in the form of apparel, footwear and personal care items. At the end of 1997, 1.3 million workers (roughly one third of the total workforce) benefited from special incentives both in the form of direct payments in foreign currencies (126,000) and indirect payments (1,176,000). The largest segment (548,000) corresponded to the Ministry of the Sugar Industry. This is an imperfect substitute for a more general reform of the wage system and a partial recovery of real salary levels, goals that cannot be realized while the economy faces inelastic supply. Under such circumstances, wage hikes would generate pressures on the balance of payments or inflation. It can be inferred from the previous paragraphs that the measures adopted as part of the government’s industrial policy are progressively taking shape as part of a comprehensive strategy especially on the level of long-term development perspectives. This process is conditioned, however, on the actions taken to respond to urgent needs and problems of the “Special Period”, that is, short-term adjustments. The government has put into place long-term strategies for the main areas of industry such as inputs for tourism and biotechnology and the promotion of export activity and import substitution. Furthermore, an even longer-range approach is beginning to take shape aimed at improving efficiency and competitiveness, as well as solving the problem of obstacles to accessing international markets. Nevertheless, the fine details of the new industrial promotion policy have yet to be defined beyond the general needs of macroeconomic stabilization and foreign trade. Despite the grave industrial setbacks experienced between 1989 and 1993, adjustment policies succeeded in preventing economic chaos and its social consequences. The economy continued to function, albeit on a lower scale and with setbacks and minimum consumption levels continued to be guaranteed. Some of the measures taken to deal with the emergency will remain a priority over the medium term—such as exports and improved competitiveness—but others will have to be 267 replaced or supplemented with strategies to promote the country’s new development pattern. The new model will have to be different from the one followed until 1989 and that of the “Special Period”, especially in terms of the long-term structural approach to economic reconstruction. In the last section of this chapter, we offer a series of reflections regarding the design and implementation of a competitiveness strategy for Cuba. C. INDUSTRIAL PERFORMANCE: ADJUSTMENT AND STRUCTURAL CHANGES 1. Industry during the “Special Period” Two phases in the pace of economic growth can be distinguished in the performance of the industrial sector during the past decade. The first, running from 1989 to 1993-1994, was characterized by a sharp drop in industrial output while the second phase began in 1994-1995 with a slight upturn that was gradually consolidated during the following years. Despite this period of recovery, most industries have yet to regain the real production levels registered in the late 1980s. In keeping with trends evident in the rest of the economy, the manufacturing industry experienced setbacks during the second half of the 1980s that translated into a deep recession by 1989-1990. Between 1985 and 1993, manufacturing experienced an almost uninterrupted decline that led to a 40% drop in output while the industry’s real contribution to GDP slipped from 25% to 22% (see graph VIII.1). As a result, the use of installed capacity plunged from 70% in 1989 to less than 30% in 1993. Similarly, by 1994 industrial investment plummeted to less than one third of 1989 levels, thus becoming one of the main obstacles to achieving sustained economic development. Sectorial production has experienced notable changes in the 1990s as each segment of manufacturing displayed sharply different rates of growth (see chart VIII.1). Priority areas, which are those with the strongest demand for foreign currencies, occupied a greater percentage of the mix to the detriment of producers of goods to be sold in Cuban pesos. Chart 2 offers an overview of the changes in the composition of manufacturing production between 1989 and 1998. The food industry continues to occupy the largest share of output and along with fishing, beverages and tobacco (all export industries), accounted for 47% of total production in 1998 compared to less than 43% in 1989. Other industries that have gained ground are nonferrous metallurgy—thanks to the strength of nickel production—chemicals—in response to a rebound in soaps and cosmetics—and electric and nonelectric machinery—in response to increased foreign-currency sales. Meanwhile, the weight of textiles, garment, paper and cardboard and glass in the manufacturing mix declined significantly. 268 Graph VII.1. CUBA: MANUFACTURING' S SECTOR GDP (Millions of pesos at 1981) 5 500 5 000 Break with tthe CMEA Stagnation "Special Period" 4 500 Recovery Crisis 4 000 3 500 3 000 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: CEPAL, based on official data and CEPAL estimates. In the labor market, employment in the manufacturing sector (excluding the sugar industry) declined from roughly 549,500 to 422,800 workers between 1989 and 1994. The reduction in industry employment partly arose as a result of policies aimed at achieving a more rational use of labor power and enhances productivity (see graph VIII.2). At the same time, underemployment grew considerably. During the second half of the decade, employment continued to decline as programs for down-sizing enterprises and strengthening efficiency took their toll. In 1998, the number of workers in manufacturing was 395,300 or 154,200 less than in 19899. The various segments of manufacturing were treated in different ways during the emergency period. Although all sectors have experienced declines, certain activities were better able to withstand the crisis as the government emphasized the need to spur export sales. While exportrelated industries were the least affected, production of capital goods and nonpriority consumption suffered the sharpest setbacks. The high levels of energy consumption by export industries exacerbated the recession in other sectors of manufacturing due to the limited supply of energy (García Hernández, 1996). Moreover, throughout the recession the weakened linkages between the various segments of industry hindered export supply until a comprehensive approach was taken to solving the problem. 9 If the sugar industry were included, total manufacturing employment would fall by 127,000 jobs during this period. 269 Chart VIII.1 INDUSTRIAL GROWTH IN THE CYCLE Average annual growth rate 1989-1994 Total manufacturing industry Food Fishing Beverages and tobacco Textiles Garment Leather Pulp and paper Industrial graphics Forest products and wood Construction materials Glass and ceramics Chemicals Metal products Mining and ferrous metallurgy Mining and nonferrous metallurgy Manufacture of nonelectric machinery Electro-technical and electronics 1998 production vs. 1989 (%) 1994-1998 -14.6 -11.7 -8.0 -9.1 -30.5 -31.2 -20.3 -27.1 -14.0 -10.7 -24.5 -22.7 -11.1 -19.8 -25.9 -9.8 -14.0 -20.7 8.9 5.6 4.2 6.8 0.8 7.4 5.3 4.3 6.6 -5.4 13.4 11.8 8.5 17.0 20.6 24.4 11.2 32.6 63.8 66.7 77.8 80.7 16.7 20.5 39.6 24.4 60.5 45.4 40.6 43.0 77.1 62.1 47.2 143.4 71.9 97.0 Source: CEPAL, based on data from the National Statistics Office (ONE). During the 1989-1993 period, manufacturing output (excluding sugar) declined by almost 70%. On the level of specific sectors, food industry output fell by more than 50% with major consequences for the well-being of the country’s population. The least dramatic setbacks, which were still of considerable dimensions, were reported in the tobacco (-32%) and beverage (-50%) segments, while the sharpest reductions were experienced in the wood (-91%), mining and metallurgy (-84%), pulp and paper (-86%), garment (-88%) and textile (-79%) industries and in the production of radios and televisions (-91%). There is no other country in the recent history of the world economy that has experienced such a dramatic contraction and escaped a mushrooming of social tensions. By mid 1990s, industry began to register notable improvements, with manufacturing output growing 7.6% in 1994 and 6.4% in 1995. During 1996-1997, manufacturing output continued to expand before falling 3.3% in 1998, along with a greater differentiation of sectorial performance. For example, some export segments such as nickel and rum climbed above 1989 production levels. Others, such as processed meats, refined oil and soft drinks, all of which are primarily geared toward solvent foreign-currency markets, also surpassed 1989 levels10. In contrast, production of most food items and intermediate goods continued to display a significant lag (see chart VIII.3)11. Some of these segments even registered declines in 1994-1998 (sugar, oil, milk, paper and fuel oil). These markets now face the prospect of a process of rapid import substitution. 10 Solvent markets are those that receive revenue in foreign currencies; in other words, exports, dollar stores and tourism. 11 It is also worthwhile noting that the industrial structure that emerged out of the transformations of the “Special Period” make it difficult to evaluate the performance of the various sectors of the economy. 270 Graph VIII.2. Cuba: Manufacturing employment sector a/ (Thousands of people) 550 500 450 400 350 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: CEPAL, based on official data. a/ Average number of manufacturing workers (excluding the fuel, energy and sugar segments as well as other industrial activities). Chart VIII.2 SECTORIAL BREAKDOWN OF CONTRIBUTION TO TOTAL MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION, 1989-1998 1989 Total manufacturing industry Food, beverages and tobacco a/ Textiles, garment and leather Paper and printing Forest products and wood Construction materials Glass and ceramics Chemicals Mining and metallurgy Metal products Nonelectric machinery Electro-technical and electronics 100.0 42.7 9.1 5.2 2.4 7.6 1.0 7.4 5.3 3.7 12.5 3.1 1994 100.0 53.2 3.9 3.5 3.0 4.1 0.6 9.1 4.9 2.7 12.9 2.2 1997 100.0 48.2 3.2 3.3 1.6 5.1 0.7 8.5 8.0 3.5 14.0 3.9 1998 100.0 47.0 3.3 3.1 1.7 4.9 0.7 9.0 8.0 3.6 14.0 4.7 Source: CEPAL, based on ONE data. a/ Includes fishing. Several factors account for the upturn in industrial production during the past five years, among them the financial discipline stemming from limits on foreign-currency allocations; new organizational and management criteria applied by sectoral ministries; the establishment of 271 administration, marketing and negotiation systems between companies and ministries; and productivity incentives for workers in practically all branches of manufacturing. In addition, the 1993 decision to decriminalize possession of foreign currencies and work incentives have served to expand the purchasing power of Cubans. Similarly, the tourism boom has also made it possible to reactivate and rearrange production chains thanks to special financing plans for activities that supply the industry, such as the food, beverage, textile and garment segments and products and services of the metal and electronic machinery, construction materials and other sectors. In 1996, domestic manufacturing accounted for approximately 30% of the tourism industry’s demand for such goods and services and roughly 35% of that of the dollar stores (TRD). Two years after they opened, 44% of the products such stores offered were of Cuban origin (Rodríguez, 1998). By 1999, the tourism group Cubanacán estimated than more than half of items used at hotels were supplied by domestic industries competing on an equal footing with imports. Chart VIII.3 GROWTH OF PRODUCTION OF SELECT GOODS, 1989-1998 Average annual growth rate 19891994 Consumer goods 96° sugar Canned meats Wheat flour Nonpowdered milk Bread Pasta Fish Lobster Rum Beer Soft drinks Tobacco Footwear Detergents a/ Intermediate goods Vegetable oil Lumber 19941998 Production 1998 vs. 1989 Average annual growth rate % 19891994 -11.9 -0.2 -7.8 -17.3 -4.9 4.9 2.3 -2.0 43.4 120.9 73.1 35.7 -6.6 -14.2 -25.2 -4.9 2.9 -18.5 -8.7 -9.4 2.5 5.0 12.1 -3.2 -2.3 10.0 13.7 9.1 78.3 56.4 37.1 68.2 105.0 52.8 106.1 86.7 -20.0 -17.2 27.8 27.1 87.1 96.6 -19.2 -14.8 -20.9 21.5 13.4 98.0 Intermediate goods Paper Oil fuel Fertilizers New tires Gray cement Concrete blocks Steel Steel structures Nickel + cobalt Capital goods a/ Plows Sugar industrial machinery b/ Gas stoves Color televisions Diesel motors Sugarcane harvesters 19941998 Production 1998 vs. 1989 % -30.1 -29.3 -31.4 -18.7 -17.3 -13.3 3.5 10.2 7.8 10.0 17.4 52.3 -22.0 -21.1 -14.0 -35.9 -10.4 12.1 8.0 17.2 17.7 25.9 45.6 41.5 88.5 20.7 145.4 18.8 -13.6 0.7 25.3 193.7 109.3 -49.1 -48.9 18.6 111.0 120.7 30.7 63.0 73.6 342.3 -55.7 -4.3 3.4 Source: Statistical Annex based on ONE data. Note: Calculations based on volume figures. a/ For these products calculations were made for the 1990-1994, 1994-1997 and 1997 periods compared to 1990. b/ On the basis of peso figures. The effort to enhance the competitiveness of Cuban industry is reflected in the growing volume and diversity of domestically produced goods available and sold at dollar stores, a trend that has 272 contributed to an efficient process of import substitution12. While it is too early to detect a generalized trend, import substitution has become the key growth element in some sectors such as nonelectric machinery, chemicals and food13. A number of factors nevertheless have hindered economic recovery. The branches of industry that are leading the reactivation are also those that consume high amounts of energy, which pressures the availability of foreign currencies. During the 1995-1998 rebound, it was possible to take advantage of the idle capacity that emerged during the downturn of 1989 to 1993. Over the medium term, however, it will be necessary to give impetus to and reorient capital formation, as a large part of the industrial apparatus is not in a position to sustain the industrial recovery either because it is too old, suffers from a lack of maintenance, or reflects the technological dependence on the countries of the former CMEA. Manufacturing investment grew a nominal 16% between 1994 and 1998, a modest rebound that was largely the result of the general economic recovery and the formation of joint ventures involving foreign companies. Nevertheless, in 1998 investment was only one-fourth that of the late 1980s. The last half of the 1990s witnessed a recovery in the use of installed capacity; however, inefficiencies and high operating costs were still in evidence. Investment rebounded very unevenly as the incentives adopted in the “Special Period” continued to privilege projects that guaranteed short-term gains on the level of sales, foreign currencies and profitability. This situation contributed to lags in the technological modernization of many industries and it is estimated that 30% of industrial equipment is obsolete. In the same vein, expenditures for science and technology and research and development were constant at 1.53% of GDP during 1990-1994, but fell to 0.96% in 1995-1998. Foreign companies or joint ventures could play a more active and diversifying role in capital accumulation within Cuban manufacturing and the economy as a whole, a trend that would be facilitated by a relaxation of the restrictions imposed by the Helms-Burton Act. In general, the experience of recent years has shown that foreign-capital partnerships have favored industrial performance (for example in cement, nickel, perfumery and cosmetics) and have also improved management practices. It should be recalled that manufacturing accounts for one third of ventures involving foreign investments (113 out of a total of 362 enterprises as of September 1999, largely in the basic, light and food industries). Lastly, it will be essential to improve inter-industry links. In the past, the sugar industry was responsible for linking everything from raw-materials sectors to the production of capital goods. The sugar industry can and should play a similar role today, but other manufacturing enclaves must be established to strengthen and complement its efforts. For example, the full development of sugarcane by-products would strengthen links in the productive chain while also allowing for increased import substitution and a wider range of tradable goods. 12 Substitution of imported products for local production in competitive conditions, without favoring domestic industry. 13 In general terms, it is estimated that domestic production covered 70% of apparent industrial consumption in 1996, marking an improvement over the 60% figure reported between 1975 and 1989 (Marquetti & García Alvarez, 1999). 273 2. Structural changes Changes designed to establish a new productive structure have been encouraged and have emerged throughout the “Special Period”. Most rearrangements are still in progress and are likely to continue generating considerable costs and benefits. A preliminary characterization of the main problems and changes of the past decade can be summed up as follows: i. ii. iii. The improvements in business management practices in State-run companies and liberalization are stimulating competition, efficiencies and productivity. One of the main achievements in this field has been the reduction in subsidies for losses registered by such enterprises although there is still a long road ahead to improve competitiveness. The productive structure remains very uneven and unarticulated. On the positive side, exportoriented industries have gained ground, although such businesses generate little in the way of value added and largely base their operations on the use of the comparative advantages of utilizing natural resource by-products. Conversely, the most technologically intensive activities (electronics, machine tools, chemistry) occupy a minimal share of exports. For the time being, there is an obvious need to strengthen inter-industry linkages and make them a key ingredient in the medium-term industrialization strategy. The achievements to date in relation to export-oriented industries provide a good example of the benefits that can be obtained by consciously strengthening ties between sources of inputs and production, especially when these serve to free up foreign-currency resources. The trend toward producing goods for which there is a solvent market has an impact on the country’s productive performance, which should have a multiplying effect throughout the chain of production—as in the case of tourism—and help draw such enterprises into corporate streamlining and management enhancement programs. Slow but detectable progress is still being made in energy savings generated per unit of production largely in response to the priority placed on strategic activities (such as the sugar and nickel industries) that consume large amounts of fuel and to the understandable deficiencies in allocating investments for the modernization of the production base in general and the energy sector in particular. It was only in the past three years that the most significant progress was achieved. During the depths of the crisis (1989-1993) energy efficiency indicators weakened in response to low installed capacity utilization along with a high structural consumption of energy by Cuban industry. These indicators deteriorated between 1989 and 1994 before beginning to display a modest recovery as production recovered, greater use of installed capacity was achieved and improved production processes were introduced. The most dramatic reductions in energy use have been registered in the soap and detergent, nickel, paper, cement and steel sectors, but significant challenges are apparent in the rest of industry as chart VIII.4 indicates. 274 Chart VIII.4 INDICES OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER UNIT PRODUCED (1989 = 100) Product 1990 1993 1994 1997 Common steel (t/MIM) 110.5 163.2 139.8 88.4 Nickel (t/Tm) 102.6 132.5 147.1 105.5 Soap and detergents (t/MIM) 100.0 159.6 99.3 47.9 Medicines (t/MMP) 102.5 248.4 318.7 143.8 Paper and cardboard (t/Tm) 105.3 186.3 266.3 105.5 Gray cement (t/MIM) 102.6 117.4 145.1 118.8 Bottles (t/MMU) 114.6 264.5 266.1 294.2 Fabrics (t/Mm2) 100.0 107.4 111.7 119.1 Raw sugar (t/MIM) 94.9 128.7 148.3 135.3 Fishing catch (t/MIM) 97.8 111.8 118.1 56.0 Meats (t/MIM) 104.2 165.9 161.1 174.4 Dairy (MIM) 100.7 145.5 166.2 174.1 Alcoholic beverages (t/MHL) 126.6 101.3 98.2 106.7 Beer (t/MHL) 62.8 65.9 98.4 119.5 Tourism (t/MMp) 86.8 56.7 63.1 63.7 Source: CEPAL, based on the database of the National Institution of Economic Research (INIE). n.a.: not available iv. v. vi. 1998 97.3 101.0 n.a. n.a. 111.8 115.6 172.9 102.8 160.4 49.6 165.0 167.1 n.a. 129.1 n.a. Although still not generalized, the trend has been toward achieving improved international competitiveness thanks to the recovery in investment levels and the introduction of deepgoing structural changes. The effort to improve efficiency in companies often has been hampered by excessive financial burdens and the logistics of sustaining social benefits and other company-financed services, including transportation for workers, canteens, on-site doctors and factory facilities unrelated to core businesses. Since 1996-1997 and as enterprises down-sizing programs advance, enterprises have begun to spin such activities off to more specialized units. Four years after having been initiated, company rescaling initiatives have begun to offer promising results in some sectors such as basic, light and metal-tool industries. Many companies have been able to downsize their plant facilities to levels that are more in keeping with demand. Installed capacity utilization has been rationalized and a range of new enterprises have been established to take charge of providing the additional services that manufacturing companies once assumed directly, thus allowing the latter to fully focus on their core business. Where a massive plant once operated, a series of factories and companies have emerged, benefiting from the outsourcing of services. The rescaling program has allowed many companies with more than 1,000 workers to pare their payrolls to a third of previous levels as the number of enterprises with less than 200 workers had doubled. The economic viability and true efficiency of companies has benefited from passing the cost of excess labor power onto the State budget. Lastly, however successful, the policies adopted by the government during the “Special Period” have generated additional costs that could increase with the passing of time. The urgency of the crisis meant placing emphasis on the export sector and its domestic suppliers, thereby combining foreign sales to international markets with import substitution, albeit on a limited scale. It will be important, however, not to limit domestic production to one side for 275 too long or to cease efforts to strengthen private activities in the secondary market, which is characterized by weak demand, insufficient supply of inputs and, in some cases, a lack of access to financing. This would not only have negative consequences in terms of a dynamic industrial articulation, but also unfavorably impact on the essential principles of social justice inherent in the Cuban model. 3. Productivity, competitiveness and structural change in foreign trade The drop in production during the past few years has had a strong negative impact on labor productivity (see “Analysis of the Labor Market” in chapter V). Furthermore, the extreme underutilization of capacity in oversized, very vertically integrated plants and the policy of making effort to maintain the workforce have further affected labor efficiency, although it has recently begun to recover significantly, the result of the reactivation in production. Although productivity in general declined during the first half of the 1990s, this tendency has varied from industry to industry, partly because of the impact of worker benefits and varied efficiency incentives. In general terms, priority and export activities have performed more effectively than those that have not been emphasized or whose production is mainly for the domestic market (textiles, clothing, glass, paper, wood). Available figures show that productivity reached its lowest level in 1993, and that since 1994 it has improved substantially (11% between 1994 and 1998, see chart VIII.5), as a result of an upturn in production and a steady decrease in excess labor power. As was the case with industrial development, Cuba's foreign trade was strongly conditioned by its relations with the countries of the former socialist bloc. As has already been noted, trade exchanges were carried out under tightly programmed but preferential conditions for Cuba. The island specialized in exports of raw materials and manufactured goods with reduced value added and low technological content, whereas the CMEA countries supplied intermediate and capital goods that were often technologically backward in comparison to Western supplies. Cuba essentially maintained the same pattern of insertion in international trade as had prevailed in the postrevolutionary period. The most obvious examples, in terms of their importance to foreign trade, are sales of sugar, which Cuba exported at prices higher than those of international markets and oil, which it imported from the Soviet Union at subsidized prices for domestic consumption and reexport14. Cuban industry, therefore, lacked the incentive to develop and diversify its exports or to promote import substitution, so its trade deficit expanded and by 1989 had reached US$2.7 billion dollars or 13% of GDP. 14 At the end of the 1980s, sugar accounted for 73% of total exports of goods, while oil represented 32% of all imports. At the same time, 80% of Cuban trade was with the USSR and the Eastern European countries (see the second half of chapter IV). 276 Chart VIII.5 MANUFACTURING PRODUCTIVITY, 1993-1998 (1989 = 100) 1993 1994 1997 Total manufacturing industry 48.5 58.9 81.8 Food 50.2 59.8 67.4 Fishing 72.4 70.6 125.8 Beverages and tobacco 69.7 83.5 132.4 Textiles 22.6 26.9 32.7 Garment 19.6 26.6 36.1 Leather 42.3 45.9 47.8 Pulp and paper 19.7 33.1 44.8 Graphics industry 52.2 57.1 85.4 Forest products and wood 59.0 63.0 60.1 Construction materials 32.2 38.7 71.0 Glass and ceramics 33.3 41.9 75.8 Chemicals 52.6 63.0 73.0 Mining and ferrous metallurgy 17.8 24.8 60.0 Mining and nonferrous metallurgy 42.9 48.8 126.6 Metal products 40.1 52.4 89.3 Nonelectric machinery 47.6 65.9 80.6 Electrical and electronics 32.8 42.4 98.2 Source: CEPAL, based on ONE data. Note: Productivity is defined as the coefficient between production at constant prices and employment. 1998 88.7 71.5 125.9 123.9 34.8 42.2 53.4 50.1 91.9 71.2 75.1 80.5 83.4 62.3 165.5 95.8 87.5 132.5 Export growth began to slacken in mid 1980s, when foreign sales stagnated at about US$5.5 billion dollars and imports stood at nearly US$8 billion dollars. The main reason for the stagnation of exports was the decrease in sugar sales, which dropped from US$4.4 billion dollars in 1985 to US$3.9 billion dollars in 1989. The increase in nickel exports from US$295 million dollars to US$486 million dollars during the same period and the rise in sales of medicines, marble and other products prevented the trade deficit from growing further. When economic links with the CMEA countries were severed, Cuba's trade transactions fell substantially. Exports dropped 80% between 1990 and 1993, while imports plunged 73% during the same period. Once again, the reduction in foreign sales was due primarily to lower sugar exports and the main factor on the import side was the decrease in purchases of oil and other raw materials, which have traditionally accounted for a high share of total imports. Exports began to recover in 1994, led by nickel, canned foods and molasses. Imports have expanded in recent years in response to increased economic growth, which has resulted in a widening trade gap. While a 1998-trade deficit of US$2.785 billion dollars was similar to that of 1989, the volume of total trade has declined significantly since the late 1980s. Manufacturing exports (excluding sugar) fell sharply between 1990-1993, and have since experienced a gradual recovery in keeping with the revival of economic activity in general. Nickel has served as a prime generator of foreign currencies for the country, while all other manufacturing segments have lagged considerably in this regard. Since 1997, however, export promotion policies 277 began to show results, especially on the level of machine tooling, construction materials and light industry segments. The weight of manufactured goods in the country’s export mix has also grown, in part due to declines in sugar sales. As a result, the percentage of manufactured goods in total exports has steadily risen from 10% in 1990 to 37% in 1997 with 23% corresponding to nickel products. Other manufactured goods that have expanded their share of the export total include canned fish products, beverages and tobacco, chemicals, cement, medicines, steel and iron. New measures have been taken with an eye toward fulfilling the Cuban economy’s need for foreign currencies. Industries have sought to prioritize the so-called solvent markets where payments are made in foreign currencies and possibilities exist for acquiring inputs from abroad. In recent years, sales have greatly expanded in export markets, the tourism industry and dollar stores. It is estimated that production for these markets grew 25% between 1994 and 1998 and accounted for 18.5% of total sales in 1997. Exports and sales in both dollar stores and to the tourism industry as a percentage of total sales reached 12.9%, 3.0% and 2.5%, respectively in 1997. Export competitiveness. The shortage of foreign currency has forced Cuba to seek new export products and markets. One of the central components of economic reforms has been to undertake efforts at all levels to improve the international competitiveness of Cuban products and the geographical coverage of the country’s exports has already been expanded. However, less progress has been made in diversifying the range of export goods, except in a few fields that have a marginal effect on total overseas sales, such as medicines. There are several obstacles to gaining greater and better access to world markets: the uneven quality of final goods, insufficient internal linkages, limited network of support industries, deficient transportation and telecommunications infrastructure, reduced competition between companies that produce goods to substitute imports, incipient development of promotion plans, poor packaging and delays in delivery times and follow-up services. In recent years, the quality of these services have improved but problems remain. From the conceptual point of view and in general terms, there are several methodological means of estimating competitiveness. The approach taken in this study focuses on a country's capacity to increase its share of exports in world trade15. These competitive gains are considered of greatest significance when they occur in industries that are the fastest growing on a global scale. In keeping with this hypothesis, two factors account for the competitive strength of a country's exports, namely: i) the change in the share of specific group of products’ exports in world markets during a given period; and ii) the change in that group of products’ share of world imports in relation to imports in the international market over the same period. The first indicator is known as the “market share” and the second is referred to as “sector contribution” and combining them makes it possible to draw up a typology of the performance of exports by defining the four groups shown in chart VIII.6. 15 Other valuation methods for gauging the competitiveness of Cuban manufacturing run up against diverse practical obstacles. For example, the system of administered prices makes it difficult to arrive at reliable figures for key indicators such as costs and production. Section D discusses the qualitative aspects of enhanced competitiveness and efficiency in a series of specific industries. 278 Chart VIII.6 SECTOR TYPOLOGY Rising stars (RS) Waning stars (WS) Lost opportunities (LO) Regressions (R) Market share Increases Increases Decreases Decreases Sector contribution Increases Decreases Increases Decreases This typology makes it possible to establish criteria to rate the competitive performance of Cuban exports. An initial approximation is shown in chart VIII.7. To begin with, it can be seen that Cuban exports have a very low share of the world market, which can be explained by their close links for three decades with the CMEA countries16. For purposes of evaluating the competitiveness of exports, however, what is important is not so much the level of that share but the change that has taken place. Thus, in the 1989-1996 period it is apparent that RS and WS sectors—in other words, those that have managed to expand their share of OECD markets—represented 44% of Cuban exports with RS companies accounting for less than 1% of the total. These numbers suggest that Cuba has yet to achieve a significant penetration of global trade flows. If we combine RS and WS sectors, the market share is a mere 0.05%. Chart VIII.8 offers a more detailed look at the trends just commented upon (three digits of the CUCI). It can be seen that export diversification is very limited, as sugar and common metals (nickel) represent more than half of the value of total overseas sales (sugar alone accounted for the same percentage in 1980). What has changed is the growing share of the export mix represented by nontraditional products such as fish, fruits and nuts and canned fruit. Even though sugar’s share of exports has dropped over the past 20 years, it still accounts for one-fifth of the total. Likewise, the drop in sugar production meant that its share of the OECD market fell from 6.4% in 1980 to 1.9% in 1996. 16 For methodological purposes, the global market is the equivalent of OECD imports. 279 Chart VIII.7 CUBA: COMPETITIVENESS MATRIX, 1989-1996 Indicator Rising stars 25 CUCI groups Percentages 1989 1996 0.000 0.001 14.57 17.83 0.16 0.75 0.01 0.05 20.16 18.41 8.24 43.17 0.02 0.01 18.77 23.07 14.71 14.58 0.08 0.04 23.13 20.01 75.25 41.32 Market share a/ Sectorial contribution b/ Contribution c/ Waning stars Market share 39 CUCI groups Sectorial contribution Contribution Lost opportunities Market share 34 CUCI groups Sectorial contribution Contribution Regressions Market share 42 CUCI groups Sectorial contribution Contribution Source: Based on CEPAL data (1999). a/ Cuban exports' share of OECD markets. b/ Share of OECD imports of such products to total OECD imports. C/ Share of Cuban exports of such products as a percentage of total exports. In contrast, foreign sales of nickel (item 287 in chart VIII.8) as a percentage of total exports rose from 7% in 1980 to around 32% in 1996, which also meant that their share of OECD imports tripled. These two products, together with tobacco (raw and manufactured) and fish and shellfish, accounted for 82% of total exports of goods from Cuba in 1996. 4. The Management Perfection System A general diagnosis of management practices among industrial enterprises in the early 1990s can be characterized by the following points (see “Empresa de la Goma Conrado Piña”, 1999). Centralization of decision-making at the highest levels led to a lack of company initiative, creativity and responsibility, as well as minimal input from workers in problem solving. It also resulted in a lack of material incentives and control, analysis and evaluations were made based on quantitative indicators with no regard for efficiency; production was conducted with little thought to cost efficiencies as evaluations were made with an eye toward the number of goods produced and without accounting for their qualitative and cost aspects. Management and leadership practices were mechanically copied; decision-making tended to be homogenous with no consideration given to the peculiarities of each industry or enterprise. Improvement programs were applied in isolated instances and were not sustained. In the face of these types of problems, officials have designed a system for improving managerial functioning. 280 Chart VIII.8 CUBA: EXPORT STRUCTURE AND COMPETITIVENESS, 1980, 1989 Y 1996 (Percentages) CUCI Description and type a/ Total 034 036 037 057 058 061 071 072 112 121 122 282 287 288 289 291 292 684 844 971 Contribution to total Cuban exports 1980 1989 1996 100.00 100.00 100.00 Share of OECD markets 1980 1989 1996 0.06 0.03 0.02 Fresh, refrigerated or frozen fish (LO) 1.68 0.54 0.43 0.24 0.02 0.02 Peeled or unpeeled crustaceans and mollusks (LO) 11.04 17.62 11.16 1.85 0.96 0.50 Fish and seafood etc., prepared or canned (LO) 1.69 4.84 4.90 0.59 0.56 0.43 Fresh or dried fruits and nuts (except oil seeds) (WS) 0.69 1.36 2.74 0.50 0.04 0.08 Canned and prepared fruits (RS) 0.40 0.52 3.65 0.10 0.40 0.23 Sugar and molasses (R) 52.18 27.94 20.36 6.43 3.14 1.89 Coffee and coffee substitutes (R) 2.52 6.08 2.62 0.15 0.35 0.13 Cacao (R) 0.30 0.62 0.16 0.05 0.10 0.02 Alcoholic beverages (RS) 0.09 0.36 1.28 0.01 0.01 0.04 Raw tobacco; tobacco residues (R) 2.97 6.51 3.58 0.70 1.03 0.54 Manufactured tobacco (LO) 4.72 6.61 8.67 2.04 0.94 0.79 Scrap iron and steel (WS) 0.02 0.79 1.08 0.01 0.11 0.12 Ores and concentrates of common metals (WS) 7.30 3.87 32.49 0.43 0.15 1.51 Nonferrous metal by products (WS) 0.33 1.47 1.21 0.70 0.13 0.11 Precious minerals and their concentrations (WS) 0.01 1.59 0.28 0.00 0.72 0.09 Bulk-animal products (R) 0.32 0.88 0.47 0.15 0.21 0.10 Bulk-vegetable products (RS) 0.01 0.23 0.16 0.00 0.01 0.01 Aluminum (RS) 0.00 0.18 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.01 Knitted lingerie (except stitching and crochet) (RS) 0.02 0.26 0.25 0.01 0.03 0.02 Nonmonetary gold (WS) 0.03 3.20 0.66 0.00 0.15 0.03 Other products 13.68 14.53 3.63 ... ... ... Source: Based on CEPAL data (CAN, 1998). a/ The initial abbreviations in parentheses indicate sectorial typology; "RS": Rising Stars; "LO": Lost Opportunities; "WS": Waning Stars, "R": Regressions. 281 The Entrepreneurship-Upgrading System (or SPE for its initials in Spanish), is primarily aimed at enhancing the efficiencies and competitiveness of State-owned enterprises. With this in mind, the program affords the management teams of eligible companies leeway in defining their responsibilities and policies geared toward achieving technological innovations and promoting worker and management productivity. Such companies are expected to draw up yearly plans and detailed prospectuses that lay out the next steps that need to be adopted in order to improve company efficiency. They are also required to maintain reliable bookkeeping records in accordance with conventional accounting standards. The leading principle is that these State enterprises function without any need for subsidies, that is, that they become self-financing and generate profit margins. General government measures are involved, but above all the program contemplates the need to award greater autonomy in exchange for enterprises designing and implementing specific efficiency improvements in keeping with each company’s specific scale. While it is understood that systemic factors contribute to the low productivity and lack of competitiveness among State-owned enterprises, it is believed that overcoming such problems demands the ex profeso design of initiatives for each production unit. In order to promote such a process, the government names management personnel, but at the same time, regards the unions as an indispensable player in promoting the participation of workers and obtaining their support in the implementation of measures designed to raise competitiveness and efficiency levels. The company’s management administers financial, material and human capital resources, and while a commitment is maintained on the level of seeking fairness in wage and employment levels, companies registered with the SPE are free to offer material and moral incentives as a way of stimulating efficiency and to expand or trim payrolls with the union’s agreement. Similarly, companies are free to acquire commercial bank loans, outsource activities, and even launch new joint ventures in alliance with foreign capital following government authorization. Meanwhile, the State is committed to offer training in accounting and financial questions as well as in management and productivity to company personnel. Companies participating in the system are authorized, pending approval from the corresponding government agencies, to distribute part of their after-tax profits to workers and earmark another share for future investments. Thus, pari passu efficiency and profitability gains are used to improve wage levels for workers and management. It should be noted that workers at SPE enterprises pay a special social security fee ranging between 5% and 7% of their wages to help pay for the reforms of the social security system. In summary, the SPE is an instrument that could allow for a more flexible and autonomous handling of company internal resources, a selective use of material incentives to encourage workers and a modern management functioning, all of which are conditioned on achieving gains in efficiency. As a result, the SPE is an effort aimed at breaking the “parastatal” (State-owned enterprises) sector’s dependence on central government subsidies with an emphasis on each company’s ability to produce managerial results outside the confines of traditional bureaucratic procedures. 282 The SPE is expected to contribute to the modernization of company management in “parastatal” enterprises. However, there is still much to be done before the country achieves an industry producing tradable goods and services that are globally competitive without the need to resort to protectionist measures. One limitation that the SPE may face is the need to design measures and decisions on a company level without first establishing a global and sectorial framework for identifying the value-added chains that must be developed. There is a danger that this State of affairs may put a drag on or distort the activities of enterprises due to the lag experienced by other companies—whether suppliers or customers—that are not part of the SPE. The SPE needs a more comprehensive view of these factors if it is to fully take advantage of greater economies of scale and the possibilities of consolidating gains on a systemic level. D. CRISIS AND RESTRUCTURING IN THE “SPECIAL PERIOD” This section offers a brief overview of how each segment of the manufacturing industry has evolved in the past decade. We have included a description of each sector’s characteristics and a discussion of how it fared during the “Special Period” in terms of production, employment and foreign trade). The section also contains performance indicators regarding such items as productivity and efficiencies in the use of energy sources and delves into the changes and institutional reforms affecting each segment and concludes with a series of considerations regarding their medium-term prospects. 1. The food industry a) Description The food industry in Cuba is the largest component of Cuban manufacturing and accounts for roughly 30% of total production. Al present, there are 350 factories and 94,000 workers in the industry (see graph VIII.3)17. The sector is comprised of 115 companies, eight of which are joint ventures with the rest corresponding to State-owned enterprises organized into 10 industry chambers or unions: meat, dairy, mills, candies, canned vegetables, beverages, beer, Cuba Ron and Cubalse (a holding company). The development of this industry between 1959-1989 was based on the creation of large-scale enterprises using technologies imported from the CMEA countries designed for mass production. Operating costs were often very high and have since displayed their negative impact on efficiency levels. 17 These figures refer to data published by the Minal; they do not include the 40,000 employees of provincial coffee, bread and cookie and candy companies controlled by local governments. 283 Graph VIII.3: CUBA. Production and employment in the food industry a/ 110.0 2 500 Employment (thousands) Production b/ 105.0 2 000 95.0 1 500 90.0 1981 million pesos Thousands of people 100.0 1 000 85.0 80.0 500 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: CEPAL, based on official data. a/ At company prices. b) Developments in the 1990s Between 1989 and 1994, the drop in production was 55% in real terms, although in 1994 the trend reverted with 10% growth, followed by another upturn of 7% in 1995, and a further 10% increase in 1996. During the succeeding two years, the recovery began to lose steam, and by 1998, production was only two-thirds of that of 1989. The crisis in the food industry can basically be explained by the massive fall in the availability of raw materials and inputs of both domestic and foreign origin, as well as the shortage of packing materials. By way of example, deliveries of livestock to the industry fell 65% between 1989 and 1994, milk dropped 78% and tomatoes plummeted eightfold, while overseas purchases of agricultural raw materials diminished 66% and wheat and flour imports fell from 1.3 million to 953,000 metric tons. Furthermore, supplies of packing materials and containers were also insufficient, forcing deliveries to be made in bulk and increasing the shortages. Another example is beer. When malt, hops and barley imports from the Czech Republic ceased, production dropped to less than half. Since 1994 there has been an upturn in production of beverages, meat products, canned foods, milled goods and sweets and candies and their reactivation has been linked to marketing in dollar 284 stores and in hotels and restaurants that receive payments in foreign currencies. In addition, partnerships with foreign capital have led to a rise in demand and the availability of hard currency has contributed to the sector's recovery. Nevertheless, in 1996 capacity was still very much underused and was generally below 50% (see inset VIII.1). A sample of 23 food and beverage items reveals that by 1998, only rum, canned meats (including those with soy content) and soft drinks had surpassed 1989 levels (see chart VIII.3). Investments are reviving slowly and largely in response to demand from tourists, dollar stores and the export market. Other investments are earmarked for satisfying domestic consumer demand and roughly 25% of industrial investment is geared toward tackling environmental concerns. A recent US$12 million dollars investment to recover the production capacity of the beer industry (refrigeration and steam equipment) allowed for an 18% savings in energy use although more investments are needed in bottling lines. Five new beer bottling and shipment lines have been opened to supply dollar stores and the foreign-currency market in general. For the production of cooking oil, investments have been made in the Santiago de Cuba plant, while US$6.8 million dollars have been invested in Regla for soy and sunflower oil. This financing is 100% Cuban in origin. There is another joint venture underway with foreign partners in Santiago de Cuba for the extraction of soy oil to be used in refining activities, which currently are totally dependent on imports. Meanwhile, import substitution now covers half of domestic demand for the production of candies. INSET VIII.1. Reconversion of the dairy industry: from cow’s milk to soymilk Founded in 1974 with a processing capacity of one million liters, the Havana Dairy Complex reached a maximum production level of 640,000 liters during the 1980s. Among the products it processes are milk, yogurt, butter, ice cream, lactose and protein. Production of cheese was recently abandoned for cost reasons. Its main market is Havana, where it covers most of the city’s needs. The impact of the “Special Period” on the dairy’s activities began to be felt in 1991. The main effect stemmed from the drop in the production of cow’s milk, which led the same plant to begin production of soymilk using its existing facilities and making only minor technological innovations. In 1994, the dairy began to produce soy yogurt primarily for children between the ages of seven and 13 (250 milliliters daily per child), since children under seven are still given cow's milk. This made it possible to preserve the plant’s employment levels (of about 1,300 workers) and increase production, although installed-capacity utilization remains low. The current strategy calls for penetrating the domestic foreign-currency market with products such as yogurt and ice-cream popsicles. The production levels of soy yogurt are more or less continuous and stable in response to constant demand, but output of other products sometimes results in suspending operations, depending on orders, on the frequency of deliveries of raw materials and on the company’s liquidity. All of these factors have a bearing on the low use of installed capacity, which in turn affects the efficiency of the company’s operations. Fixed costs and equipment amortization become proportionally higher and the company must cope with additional fixed expenses, which have little to do with the dairy business and serve as a burden on the company’s finances. 285 The dairy complex has recently undertaken joint ventures involving the production of pasteurized milk and plastics. Under the terms of these ventures, a foreign investor supplies the necessary financing and technology in exchange for royalties that are paid over a predetermined period of time. However, the management and assets remain in Cuban hands and the foreign investor does not share in the profits of these operations. In 1998, the dairy spent US$1 million dollars largely to waterproof the installations, and in 1999, plans called for capital expenditures totaling US$4 million dollars and 3 million Cuban pesos, in part to install a facility for the production of ultra-pasteurized milk. During the first eight months of 1999, production rose 8%, productivity increased 22% and energy costs per unit metric ton of production have dropped by half. A unit producing containers, lids and other plastic products also functions at the complex for internal supply, but capacity utilization is minimal even though in recent years this division has begun to fill orders for other customers. The plastics facility now produces boxes for the beer industry, as well as sacks and cones. The dairy complex also provides a range of services and additional benefits (which are either subsidized or free of charge), including transportation, uniforms and work boots, on-site doctors, a canteen, laundry and dry cleaner for work clothes and the personal apparel of those employed at the factory, a beachfront spa, a social center complete with a restaurant, cultural and recreational excursions for the children of plant employees and special vacation services. The company also maintains a vegetable and fruit garden to cover its own produce needs, as well as a facility for producing animal fodder. In 1996, the program for rightsizing the complex was launched. The approach taken differed from the ones applied in other industries, where a focus was maintained on decentralizing activities. The dairy sustained its vertical integration and maintained its capacity to provide its operations with a range of additional services. With an eye toward becoming part of the Management Perfection System, plans call for dividing the complex into smaller units. One company is to focus exclusively on transportation services, while another is to handle plant maintenance. In this way, plastics, ice cream and other production units will be spun off as specialized companies that will have to directly pay for such services as steam and electric power, water and marketing, among others. c) Changes in the “Special Period” Restrictions on the availability of foreign currency and the lack of coordination in commodityproducing sectors have promoted the retrofitting of the industry and the substitution of certain inputs and products. For example, the short supply of livestock led to the use of soy—soybeans are currently being imported—as a meat substitute, as a result of which processing levels were recovered, reaching record figures in 1995. Soya is also used to make milk and cheese. In the same vein, the Agricultural Research Institute has developed a soy-based cereal and yogurt, which are now being successfully marketed as a substitute for cow's milk18. In light of the foreign-exchange limitations, production aimed at the domestic market and priced in Cuban pesos tended to decline rapidly. The quantity and variety of goods contained in the basket of basic goods obtained through the ration booklet have deteriorated, forcing consumers to complement their purchases with products priced in dollars. The supply of such products has increased and diversified in recent years, while their prices have declined. 18 Children up to the age of seven are still being provided with cow's milk and 7-13 year-olds are given soymilk. Soy meat already accounts for 30% of total canned meat production. 286 In the drive to transform this industry, foreign-capital partnerships have been sought, aimed at securing capital, technology and markets. Joint ventures have been established in the nonalcoholic beverage, wine, beer, meat products, cacao and soy by-products industries and the marketing of equipment to produce ice-cream. Production payable in foreign currencies on the domestic market has grown since 1994, thus favoring import substitution of dairy and meat products, fruits and vegetables. An estimated 17% of production of processed foods is earmarked for the dollardenominated domestic market, while 3% is destined for export markets. The idea is to step up exports of canned fruit and vegetables, cocoa butter, candies and beer. An interesting effort is being mounted on the level of business management by the Ministry of the Food Industry, which has launched a project to train businessmen with emphasis on strategic leadership, assessment of investments and marketing, among other aspects. Efficiency levels in the use of energy remain low. For example, energy use per unit produced remains high in the meat and dairy industries, but are more encouraging in the case of beer and alcoholic beverages (see chart VIII.4). d) Outlook The food industry has the potential to substitute imports, particularly those currently being marketed in dollar stores or in the tourism industry. In the short term, the reactivation strategy could place priority on those markets; in the medium term, exports could be increased and diversified, while promoting supplies to the domestic market. Normalization of domestic supply will depend on the funds freed up by stabilization and structural adjustments and on social policy priorities, as well as on the easing of external pressures. The industry’s export strategy is aimed at achieving a diversification to include nontraditional products such as bottled water, soft drinks, canned meats, fruits and vegetables and beer. Farm production remains a major stumbling bloc and the Minal has sought to overcome this problem by coordinating efforts with the agricultural sector to prioritize the production of items needed for the export market. 2. a) Light industry Description Light industry includes textiles, clothing, leather and footwear, perfumes, cosmetics, cleaning products, publishing and printing, furniture and plastic articles. The Ministry for Light Industry (Minil) oversees seven corporate groups (unions), nine independent State organizations and close to 600 factories of different sizes corresponding to 123 companies. Each corporation has its own marketing company, which directly imports and exports. Light industry employed a total of 85,000 workers in 1999, down from 108,000 in 1988. As in other branches of industry, there are also provincial companies that are run along the same lines, but controlled and funded by local governments. Light industry is largely dependent on the availability of foreign inputs, a situation that became critical as a result of the external crisis. This was compounded by the drop in domestic demand, which could not be compensated for by exports due to problems related to access to foreign currency, insufficient competitiveness and a lack of marketing channels. 287 b) Changes in the 1990s The crisis reached its peak in 1993, when production amounted to 22% of 1989 output. The industry had to adopt a survival strategy, which hindered medium-term planning and forced layoffs of skilled labor. Moreover, the food industry was not included among priority activities in terms of foreign-exchange allocations and strategic inputs. Nevertheless, as of 1994 production experienced an upturn: 18% growth that year, 8% in 1995 and an annual average of 10% between 1996 and 1998, although figures for this latter year remained below those of 1989. Sales of apparel, footwear and personal hygiene products in the domestic market in foreign currency have grown from US$19 million dollars in 1995 to US$110 million dollars in 1998. A total of US$27.5 million dollars of such products were sold in the tourist industry, while US$11.3 million dollars were exported in 1998. One of the most affected branches has been textiles, where production dropped 77% in real terms between 1989 and 1994, and despite a later recovery, in 1998 output stood at a mere 40% of 1989 levels. The excessive size of textile plants, technological backwardness, high-energy consumption and lack of imported raw materials (cotton, polyester and rayon)19 have paralyzed production or resulted in the closing of many factories. The drop in production meant that the share of textiles in light industry fell by half in the first half of the 1990s. The textile crisis dragged clothing production down with it, with output plummeting 86% during the same period. Clothing factories faced a shortage of raw materials, serious technological problems or a lack of markets. Today, there is a clear trend toward a normalization of supplies of imported raw materials and inputs. International competitiveness has been achieved in the production of shirts and underwear, sometimes based on contracts with in-bond manufacturers. Both textile and especially garment industries show signs of a recovery (see graphs VIII.4 and 5). Between 1994 and 1998, textile output rose 3% while the production of garments grew by 33%. As an example, the production of apparel and towels (reactivated in response to demand from hotels) rose 23.6% and 8.6%, respectively, between 1996 and 1998. Between 1995-1998, the textilegarment industry was the recipient of US$5 million dollars in technological investments, while another US$5 million dollars were invested in 1999 for the production of polypropylene bags. Limited supplies of leather resulting from the decline in the country’s cattle herd have hampered the footwear industry. Taken together, leather and footwear production dropped almost 70% between 1989 and 1994. Due to inter-sectorial links, falling supply has reduced domestic selfsufficiency. However, an effort has been made to fill the gap by promoting the use of substitute inputs in footwear production. In 1999, a synthetic leather plant was set up to supply the footwear industry. A further obstacle to recovery is the shortage of working capital in various processes. This has led to fluctuations in production, which increased by 43% in 1995, dropped 14% in 1996 and latter sustained average growth of 12% through 1998. During this latter two-year period, production of leather climbed by an average of 4%. 19 Imports of cotton, mainly from the former USSR, dropped from 45,000 metric tons in 1989 to only 4,000 metric tons in 1994. 288 The furniture industry has partly compensated for shrinking domestic demand by supplying the tourism sector. In plastics, the main stumbling bloc is the shortage of foreign exchange to acquire imported raw material. The bulk of production consists of polyethylene items such as bags, containers and packaging. Nevertheless, modernization programs are being implemented with the resources accrued from improved efficiencies. The soap and cosmetics industry began an early process of recovery thanks to infusions of foreign capital. Today, this sector is one of the few that have managed to surpass 1989 levels. The rapid expansion of the tourism industry and the development of the parallel dollarized market and incipient exports have created a series of complementary incentives. This is one of the successful examples of foreign-capital partnerships. In fact, thanks to gains in technology, quality and diversified production, the Suchel company has been consolidating its share of the domestic market (import substitution), and also exports part of its output. The domestic market in hard currency provides many opportunities for import substitution of light manufactured goods. Except for soap (which absorbs 80% of domestic demand), the share of Cuban products such as textiles, clothing and footwear is still very low. The aim is to use the earnings obtained in this market to finance lines of production for the market in local currency. Another way is substituting imports of goods for agriculture, sugarcane cultivation and the sugar industry (footwear, gloves, work clothes). c) Transformations in the “Special Period” Due to the implementation of the new law on foreign investment, by 1998 a total of 31 jointventure contracts had been signed in various segments of light industry. Aside from institutional reforms—ownership rights, market liberalization and the role of foreign investment—permanent measures continue to be implemented to reorganize business management and promote exports. The aim is not only to revitalize industry but also to raise productivity and efficiency at the same time. Similarly, the aim is to eliminate the losses absorbed by the Ministry for Light Industry, which amounted to 150 million pesos in 1993, dropped to 118 million pesos in 1995 and to 80 million pesos in 1996, 70% of which corresponded to the textile industry. The textile industry is one of the clearest examples of oversized facilities. Special efforts have been undertaken to make production more efficient and profitable. Many factories have high idle capacity and others are at a partial standstill as efforts are still underway to restructure production and achieve technological modernization. The greatest achievement has been to reduce rates of energy consumption per unit produced by 19% in 1997 and 14% in 1998, implying a virtual return to 1989 levels (see chart VIII.4). The restructuring of the textile industry has brought about changes in productive specialization and company product lines. The goods that have benefited most are those that meet the demand of the tourism sector and the domestic market in foreign currency (underwear, bed and chart linen, towels, hosiery, denim, etc.), as well as other self-financed activities (canvas, sisal rope and cord). Other production lines that have been reactivated are polypropylene sacks, sewing thread and certain articles of clothing. 289 Although the branches of light industry generally share the aim of achieving greater efficiency, they tend to differ in regard to rescaling and restructuring needs, strategies and actions. Small workshops have been closed in the clothing industry and the aim is to make full use of capacity. In leather and footwear, organization, selection and quality have improved, but equipment is needed to open more lines of production and improve design. The plastics industry union plans to repair, modernize and make use of the most efficient equipment, while eliminating obsolete machinery. In cosmetics manufacturing, the Suchel company has made substantial progress in retrofitting; and output has been revitalized as a result of organizational changes, concentrating production, closing inefficient plants and introducing modern technology (Ministry for Light Industry, 1996). A common denominator in the strategy to improve company efficiency is the stress placed on reordering production and lines of authority in order to streamline production and decentralize functions and responsibilities. The current focus is on customer satisfaction by providing prompt and effective service. The idea is to reorganize supply, sometimes by diversifying and, at times, through economies of scale. In addition to streamlining production, the attributes of the lines of authority between enterprises, corporations and the Minil have been altered. Today, corporations play a much more active role in the design of sectorial strategies and companies assume greater responsibility for the implementation of such plans. It has become common practice to redouble efforts at lowering production costs for items that are being produced in a series of facilities belonging to a single company. A wide variety of training programs for managers and other personnel have also being implemented. Along with these measures, efforts to adapt technologies, improve management practices and implement worker incentives have led to promising results. As a result, productivity in light industry (as measured by the value added by each worker) increased 16% in 1995, 26% in 1996, 9% in 1997 and 12% en 1998. It should be noted that efforts to enhance efficiencies even have led to reductions in the staff of the Minil from 536 in 1989 to less than 150 by 1998. Much progress has been achieved on the level of rightsizing light industry. One example is the Wajay industrial park, which was developed to accommodate several companies while adjusting their size to market demand. Within the installations that were previously occupied exclusively by the textile manufacturer Hilatex, a trimmer Hilatex operates alongside factories producing bed mattresses, footwear and synthetic leathers needed by footwear companies. A knitwear facility and a company marketing leather and footwear are also expected to begin operations at the same site. Furthermore, an independent service provider at the park should prove profitable and be capable of tending to industries located outside of this industrial park. This arrangement allows for greater efficiencies and a fuller use of installed capacity both on the level of physical production and services. In addition, the reorganization process assures that each company pays for its share of utilities at the park, such as water and electricity. d) Rescaling the textile industry As they were designed in coordination with the CAEM countries with an eye toward meeting planned exchange arrangements, textile plants are one of the most striking examples of factory oversizing in Cuba. Hence the central aim of the program to streamline this industry has been to 290 raise productive and energy efficiency by substantially reducing and making better use of operating capacity. Progress in implementing the program has been uneven; some plants having almost finished accommodated their capacity to established goals, and consequently, have also readjusted their personnel. The program encompasses 10 companies and 45 factories distributed throughout the country. The goals set for the new capacity reflect the magnitude of this industry’s oversizing. The production levels for fabrics, thread, knitwear and kenaf products are to be cut by more than 50% from the levels that prevailed at the beginning of the 1990s; production capacity for stockings is to be pared by 19% (see chart VIII.9). Chart VIII.9 TEXTILE INDUSTRY: PRODUCTION CAPACITY Pre-rightsizing Post-rightsizing Change (%) capacity capacity (1998) Stockings Millions of pairs 28.3 22.8 -19.4 Cloth Millions of square meters 280.0 126.9 -54.7 Thread Thousands of metric tons 14.8 6.3 -57.4 Knitwear Millions of garments 49.3 24.4 -50.5 Millions of sacks 48.0 22.7 -52.7 Kenaf products Source: Based on report by the Ministry for Light Industry, "Situación Actual y Perspectiva de la Actividad Energética", mimeographed edition, Havana, July 1996. Industry Unit measurement More efficient use of energy is a key aspect in restructuring the textile industry. The new goals that have been set for once the rescaling process is complete are indicative of energy that is wasted in textile plants. The electricity and fuel oil-consumption indices in 1995 were significantly higher than the targets set for 1998. It will probably take several years to reach energy efficiency goals, particularly if the necessary investment is not stepped up. e) Perspectives Modest progress has already been made in rescaling the textile industry, but it will have to be strengthened through other measures to ensure that it is sustained. The main challenges include reducing costs, mainly by cutting back energy consumption; improving product image; diversifying designs; improving delivery times; and increasing product promotion. The introduction in 1996 of ISO 9000 standards in a group of textile industries will contribute to these efforts. Plans are also afoot to improve the system of workplace incentives and reinforce measures to reduce personnel turnover. 291 Graph VIII.4. Cuba: Textile industry production and employment 45.0 240 Employment (thousands) 220 Production a/ 40.0 200 180 160 1981 million pesos Thousands of people 35.0 140 30.0 120 100 25.0 80 60 20.0 40 15.0 20 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: CEPAL, based on official data. a/ At company prices. Graph VIII.5. Cuba: Production and employment in the textile industry a/ 35.0 250 Employment (thousands) 200 Production a/ 25.0 150 20.0 100 15.0 50 10.0 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Source: CEPAL, based on official data. 1995 1996 1997 1998 Millones de pesos de 1981 Thousands of people 30.0 292 3. Basic industry a) Description Basic industry in Cuba is made up of the following activities: the electrical industry, fuels (from extraction to distribution), nickel (three plants), geology and mining (salt, lead, copper), chemicals (fertilizers, pesticides, soda, chlorine, paint), rubber, paper and glass20. The Ministry for Basic Industry (Minbas) oversees these activities21 and registered sales of 1.21 billion pesos in 1997 and 1.94 billion pesos in 1998. Minbas operations employ 100,000 workers. INSET VIII.2. Fragmentation of production: the case of Kalony footwear Kalony illustrates the problems of oversizing in Cuban industry and exemplifies the rescaling undertaken during the “Special Period”. As was common throughout industry, up to the late 1980s this company— founded in 1966—focused on executing large-scale production plans in a similar way to commodities. In contrast to most countries, key factors in competition in this industry, such as design and marketing, did not form part of the company’s overall strategy. Since mid 1990s, Kalony has undergone far-reaching administrative and productive changes. After several attempts to bring processes under the same roof, it was decided to divide the facilities into nine plants that would manufacture different products and have autonomy in controlling production, whereas the holding company would take charge of financial and corporate operations. The introduction of “just in time” total quality systems and the greater flexibility resulting from dividing up the factory led to a considerable improvement in productive efficiency: a switch was made from consecutive to parallel manufacturing processes, which shortened the production cycle from 13 to two days; production lines were diversified and defects were substantially reduced. A training program for factory hands that focused on making a greater number of tasks more efficiently accompanied the rescaling process. The workforce of 600 (450 direct jobs) remained unchanged throughout the process and reclassifying jobs made it possible to raise wages, which are paid on the basis of collective piece work in keeping with production results and national pay scales. Furthermore, incentives have been implemented based on efficiency, productivity and on production volume that meets certain preestablished quality standards (98 % of footwear must be defect-free), and as a result, workers can receive up to 40% more than the basic wage. Most production is made to order and is mainly aimed at the domestic market in foreign currency (pumps, ballet slippers and sports shoes) where the company faces strong competition from imported footwear (a 30% import tariff is levied to protect domestic production). The company also produces special shoes for elementary and middle-school students, workers and those requiring orthopedic footwear. 20 21 The electric-power and fuel industries will de taken up in the following chapter. In 1999, the cement industry was also integrated into the Minbas. 293 While progress has been achieved in right-sizing production, problems remain. The most significant hurdle is the supply of raw materials. Leather production has plummeted, so most footwear is now made from imported synthetic leathers, which sometime fail to arrive on time. Product quality has improved, but is a long way from being internationally competitive. Despite the increase in production, it is 60% below 1989 levels, which makes it difficult to achieve greater cost efficiencies. The installation of a new synthetic leather factory in 1999 will surely contribute to improving supplies of raw material to the company. b) Evolution in the 1990s Following the sharp declines in production experienced during the early 1990s, a recovery has been achieved in companies with access to foreign currencies. Most areas of production registered rebounds beginning in 1994-1995, although the paper and glass industries remain depressed (see graph VIII.6 through 8). Even the industries that have posted the strongest growth have yet to recoup 1989 levels (except for nickel) and their workforces have been pared significantly. As a result of the crisis in the early 1990s and the ensuing restructuring process, 20,000 employees were laid off at Minbas industries, although they have since been relocated. Official policy tends to favor sustaining production in basic industries that are unprofitable22, only when social considerations enter the picture or possibilities appear to arise of returning the operations to profitability. The rubber industry has recovered since 1996 without any need for foreign investments (see chart VIII.3), and by 1997, production had rebounded to 45% of 1989 levels. In contrast, the glass industry is virtually paralyzed and the prospects for bringing it back to life depend on the development of the rest of the industry. In this regard, hopes are placed primarily on a revival of Cuban breweries. A recovery is currently underway in the production of safety glass, goblets, drinking glasses, jars and vials. Some glass items are being exported to the Caribbean, but production is fundamentally geared toward import substitution. The paper industry has experienced ups and downs; by 1997, production was a scant 16% of 1989 output. This sector consists of eight plants: three are dedicated to processing sugarcane pulp, while four of the eight are inactive and work was suspended at the largest facility in 1995. The products experiencing a revival are toilet paper and napkins. Recently three joint ventures have been launched to revive production at the idle plants and foreign investment is expected to play a role in the industry’s recovery. 22 The double system for setting prices in the domestic market and other distortions pose problems for accurately measuring the intrinsic profitability of operations. 294 Graph VIII.6. Cuba: Production and employment in the pulp and paper industry a/ 9.0 250 Employment (thousands) Production a/ 8.0 200 150 1981 million pesos Thousands of people 7.0 6.0 100 5.0 50 4.0 3.0 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: CEPAL, based on official data. a/ At company prices. Graph VIII.7. Cuba: Production and employment in the glass and ceramic industries. 70 8.0 Employment (thousands) 60 Production a/ 50 6.0 40 5.0 30 4.0 20 3.0 10 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Source: CEPAL, based on official data. a/ At company prices. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1981 million pesos Thousands of people 7.0 295 INSET VIII.3. Perfecting management in the rubber industry The first—and until September 1999, the only—Minbas company enrolled in the EntrepreneurshipUpgrading System (SPE) was Conrado Piña Díaz, a producer of tires, footwear and other rubber products. Production at this company experienced a dramatic decline in the early 1990s, but rebounded beginning in 1996 and is currently only slightly below its 1986-1990 average. The company has improved its profitability indicators, and in order to participate in the SPE, it agreed to a rationalization and reorganization process that consisted of offering workers basic training programs, conducting a comprehensive study of the plant and applying corrective measures for the problems that were detected, among them the need to expand its markets in search of additional capital and improving incentives programs and other services for workers. The fundamental changes that are currently contemplated include empowering workers to assume new tasks and responsibilities with the central goal of improving efficiencies. It is hoped that workers will engage in more collective efforts with an eye toward maintaining production for meeting demand based on the rules of the market. Plans call for trimming the structure and number of management personnel at the company’s main office, while affording each business unit that directly depends on the corporate administration greater leeway in decision-making, a step that should help reduce the need for middle-management personnel. These business units comprise an innovative structure that includes companies offering maintenance, supplementary services, sales and purchasing operations, as well as the production of car and truck tires, textile/rubber footwear and bicycles tires. Management at Conrado Piña offers workers incentives based on both individual and collective performance. Two payment formats are used under this system: quantitative and qualitative performance is awarded based on salary in the form of a direct payment added to wages, while an average of 13 convertible pesos per month are deposited in workers’ debit card/ATM accounts as an additional form of incentive pay. A top dress-maker can earn up to 400 pesos a month, plus additional 15 convertible pesos in incentive pay. Expansion plans presuppose a better use of installed capacity and an 8% increase in production during 1999, while expanding productivity (9%), median wages (8%) and pre-tax profits (23%). Over the medium term (2003), targets include doubling production of automobile tires (to total 95,000), producing 1.5 million bicycles tires and satisfying domestic demand for rubber and plastic goods. The situation in the chemical industry has also been mixed. While production of fertilizers declined dramatically in 1997, output of other chemical products has recovered by leaps and bounds, and by 1998, it allowed the sector to regain 84% of 1989 production levels. Export diversification has progressed slowly in the case of basic industry. Nickel remains the sector’s leading export but other mining products have achieved a greater share of the export mix, such as copper, chrome, gold and zeolite; a similar increase in export activity has been recorded in pressed glasses, rubber footwear and cloth. At the same time, headway has been achieved in import substitution for such products as paper, fertilizers and pesticides. Despite this progress, at the end of the 1990s it appeared that there is still considerable room for growth in domestic production. 296 Graph VIII.8. Cuba: Production and employment in the chemical industry 31.0 550 Employment (thousands) 500 Production a/ 30.0 450 400 28.0 350 27.0 1981 million pesos Thousands of people 29.0 300 26.0 250 25.0 200 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: CEPAL, based on official data. a/ At company prices. c) Changes in the “Special Period” During the 1980s, the Ministry for Basic Industry had 785 employees; now its total workforce consists of no more than 140 people. The Ministry continues exercising control and supervisory functions, but is no longer involved in production matters, which have become the direct responsibility of companies. In fact, a corporate system was established in which factories are responsible for their own management and are goal-oriented. Boards of directors are headed by a corporate director and are made up of the directors of major companies. In terms of employment, restructuring has reduced workforce by 14%. Measures have been taken to trim company costs and determine real productivity levels. If factory equipment remains idle for more than three months, fixed costs are eliminated from company results. Similarly, the State directly assumes responsibility for the wages of idle workers after a reasonable period off the job. In general, increased financing and supplies of raw materials have enabled basic industry to begin its recovery while at the same time improving technical conditions in plants and boosting export production. Streamlined production has also lowered company losses. 297 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 Dollars per pound Millions of dollars Graph VIII.9. Cuban exports and nickel prices in the London Metal Exchange 2.0 1.0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Nickel exports Dollars per pound Source: CEPAL, based on IMF data. Minbas calculates that roughly 100 companies are in a position to join the Management Perfection System and will do so over the course of 2000. All workers in basic industry are eligible to receive added incentives, which range between 25 and 50 convertible pesos per month. In fact, 84% of the 100,000 workers in Minbas companies receive some form of incentives; 33,000 in the form of cash payments, while the remainder are paid through ATM cards. Chart VIII.10 STRUCTURE OF GLOBAL CONSUMPTION OF NICKEL, 1997 By type of product % By geographical region % By final consumers % Stainless steel 60 Europe 38.7 Transportation equipment 18 Nickel alloys 12 Japan 20.0 Electric machinery 21 Steel alloys 9 Rest of Asia 19.6 Nonelectric machinery 19 Nickel plating 9 United States 15.6 Construction 9 Others 10 Other regions 6.1 Others 33 Total 100 100 100 Sources: Ministry of Planning and Economy, "Industria del Níckel", Havana, undated; Eva María Quintana, "Tendencias en el Mercado Mundial del Níckel", Cuba Foreign Trade, No. 2, 1998; United Nations, "Industrial Commodity Statistics Yearbook", New York, 1966; United Nations, "International Trade Statistics Yearbook", volume 2, New York, 1995. 298 d) The nickel industry Nickel is regarded as a priority as it is the country’s second largest export product after sugar, and accounted for 23% of the value of total Cuban exports of goods in 1997. The weakening of market demand in the first part of the 1990s had a major impact on the industry, as the CMEA countries had accounted for 73% of total nickel export sales and 87% of the industry’s inputs. The breakdown in relations with this trade bloc not only implied a major drop in export revenue, but also posed significant problems for sustaining output and maintaining production facilities as the industry was suddenly faced with the need to readapt its technology to respond to other sources and types of inputs. As part of the institutional reforms, priority was placed on converting and rebuilding nickel export markets. In 1991, nickel-processing plants were allowed to directly market their output and obtain financing and inputs for their operations. At the same time, efforts were made to establish partnerships with foreign companies. To date, one of the most successful partnerships has been with Sherrit, a Canadian company that merged with the Cuban concern Pedro Soto in 1994. Sherrit owns 50% of the new company, while Cuba now holds a 50% share of the Sherrit refinery in Alberta, Canada. INSET VIII.4: The global nickel market Nickel is one of the leading nonferrous metals with properties that make it ideal for use in a wide range of industrial processes. It is employed in the production of stainless steel, which accounts for 60% of total demand. It is also widely used in the chemical, petrochemical, electronics, aerospace, automotive and tool industries. Global production of primary nickel (which has been refined from ore) grew at an annual rate of 2.2% during the past decade and by 1997 reached 987,000 metric tons with Cuba supplying 3.6% of the total. The leading producers are the Russian Federation (21% of global production), Canada (13%), Japan (13%), Australia (7%) and Norway (6%). Cuba ranks sixth among producer countries with 68,000 metric tons (1998), of which 35,000 metric tons correspond to metallurgy production as indicated in chart VIII.10 with the remainder consisting of Ni+Co sulfides, an unfinished form of the mineral that is produced at the Moa plant. Growth of the world’s nickel industry is critically dependent on the evolution of the steel industry, which absorbs a growing percentage of global nickel supplies (rising from 40% in the 1970s to 60% in the last decade). Nickel prices fluctuated considerably in the 1990s, although they have performed better than most commodities. Between 1987 and 1997, the price of nickel on the London Metals Exchange climbed from US$2.22 dollars to US$3.14 dollars per pound. In the interim, strong demand by the steel industry led to a spike in prices to roughly US$6 dollars per lb. in 1988-1989. In the early 1990s, excess inventories accumulated in response to strong demand in preceding years, combined with a reduced pace of global economic growth and the entry of Russian nickel into international markets, pressured prices to as low as US$2.4 dollars per lb. in 1993, coinciding with the worst moments of Cuba’s economic crisis. By the mid 1990s, the nickel industry cycle experienced a brief upturn largely in response to a revival of Asia’s steel industries. Nevertheless, the financial crisis that swept the region in 1997 and a new slowdown in global economic activity pulled prices lower, where they remained at the end of 1999 (see graph VIII.9). 299 As a result of the joint investments and comprehensive improvement programs, productive infrastructure has been enhanced, technology has been adapted, energy efficiency has increased and marketing channels have been regenerated23. These achievements are reflected in a rebound in production, which rose from 24,000 metric tons in 1994 to almost 68,000 metric tons in 1998 (with 73,000 metric tons expected in 1999) thus surpassing previous annual record highs (50,000 metric tons) and pushing production 45% above 1989 levels. Plentiful reserves of nickel and cobalt (a related product), which are the second largest in the world, make this an industry with high development potential in the medium term. Chart VIII.11 CUBA: NICEL-COBALT PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS, 1989-1998 1989 Production volume (thousands of metric tons) 46.6 Exports 1. Value (millions of dollars) 486.4 Ni+Co sinter 124.8 Ni+Co oxide 145.5 Ni+Co sulfide 216.1 2. Export share of total value 9.0 3. Volume (thousands of metric tons) 46.0 Ni+Co sinter 11.2 Ni+Co oxide 15.0 Ni+Co sulfide 19.8 4. Implicit export prices (thousands of dollars per metric ton) 10.6 Ni+Co sinter 11.1 Ni+Co oxide 9.7 Ni+Co sulfide 10.9 Source: CEPAL, based on National Statistics Office data. 1993 30.2 1994 26.9 1995 42.7 1996 53.7 1997 61.6 142.4 60.7 15.2 66.5 12.3 26.6 11.8 2.9 11.9 196.0 86.3 5.6 104.1 14.7 29.1 14.7 0.9 13.5 323.6 143.0 1.3 179.4 21.7 38.0 17.8 0.1 20.0 416.8 214.1 1.6 201.1 22.3 55.2 29.4 0.2 25.6 415.3 217.7 2.8 194.9 22.8 59.5 32.5 0.3 26.6 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.6 6.7 5.9 6.5 7.7 8.5 8.0 9.8 8.9 7.6 7.3 8.0 7.9 7.0 6.7 9.3 7.3 1998 67.7 INSET VIII.5. The Ernesto Che Guevara nickel plant The Ernesto Che Guevara plant, located in the eastern province of Holguín, is an example of cooperation between Cuba and the former Soviet Union. Construction of the plant was concluded in 1986, with an annual production capacity of 30,000 metric tons of nickel+cobalt sulfide-grade product. Technological deficiencies posed obstacles when production first got underway. It was possible to document a wide range of problems that prevented normal functioning of the facility. 23 Contracts have also been signed with other Australian, Canadian, Panamanian and Venezuelan companies with a view to prospecting for gold, silver and nonferrous metal deposits. 300 Following the dismemberment of the Soviet Union at the end of the 1980s, production practically came to a standstill. Markets dried up, deliveries of inputs were suspended and there was no means for financing operations. At that time, the furnaces represented the most severe bottleneck. Major efforts allowed for a successful resolution of these and other problems with the plant, thus allowing for improved efficiency indicators, a process that extended until 1996. New technologies were introduced to replace those supplied by the Soviet Union. Significant improvements were registered in those critical areas of production where fuel consumption was greatest, while other obstacles to production were gradually overcome. Beginning in 1996, production once again was on the rise, unit costs were reduced, economies of scale were taken advantage of and the expenses related to repairs were greatly diminished. Today, the plant is operating at full capacity with a workforce of 2,500 (down from a previous level of more than 6,000) and output surpassed original installed capacity to reach 28,000 metric tons in 1998. When the plant began operations at the end of the 1980s, it used 36 metric tons of fuel for each metric ton of nickel produced, a figure that has since been reduced to between 15 and 18 metric tons, which is comparable to international industry standards. Workers have been trained in the use of new automated production techniques. The rescaling program has also produced positive results: supplementary services including the plant canteen, transportation, housing, maintenance and repairs were decentralized beginning in 1996. A research center now collaborates in the design of investment planning. The plant acquires ore from two open pits, one of which is located less than 2 km from the plant and the other 10 km away. The company holds a concession to exploit these deposits and reserves are expected to last for more than 30 years. The plant produces nickel oxide and sinter nickel by calcifying its carbonate composition and a mixed nickel- and cobalt-sulfuric precipitate. Officials have decided that the installation of a refinery at the plant would offer significant advantages such as a fuller exploitation of existing infrastructure; expanding the percentage of cobalt recovered from ore to as much as 40% (up from a current 20% average); and, enhanced product quality that would draw higher prices in international markets. The future facility is to be armed with technology designed to have a minimal 24 environmental impact generating residues that are easily managed . It is estimated that the refinery will cost US$90 million dollars, with an annual installed capacity of 34,800 metric tons of nickel and 1,200 metric tons of cobalt (98.8% pure). It is estimated that the refinery could begin production in 15 months and that the new facility will employ 1,400 workers, including in the refinery and ore processing operations. This branch of industry is organized around the Nickel Union, which integrates plans for development, organization, investment and infrastructure, as well as areas of management planning including budgets, human resource development, research and development and business plans. The union, which employs 14,000 workers, plays a key role as a supplier of foreign currencies, and on this level, it is surpassed in importance only by the tourism and sugar sectors. With the exception of output at mixed-ownership companies, international trade is handled by Cubaníquel, which is an agency attached to the Foreign-Trade Ministry. In 1996, a new financing policy for the nickel industry was approved, which allows for decentralized use of much of the foreign-exchange revenue that it generates. The Nickel Union can thus directly import inputs and increase its access to foreign credit, which will facilitate the operating of processing facilities and finance expansion plans. Nonetheless, some decisions are still centrally adopted. 24 See “Basic Industry”, (Industria del Níquel), mimeographed edition, Havana, 1999. 301 Nickel processing is conducted at three plants: Nicaro, which was founded in 1943, Pedro Soto (established in 1959 and now functioning as a joint venture with the Canadian-based Sherrit) and Che Guevara (1986). The first and last of these three facilities operate using an ammoniac carbonate process, while the second uses an acid-based technology. A fourth processing facility that currently lays idle requires new investments to resume production. Following the industry-wide crisis of the early 1990s, production has recovered and posted a record level of 67,700 metric tons in 1998, broken down as follows: Che Guevara 28,000 metric tons, Pedro Soto 27,700 and Nicaro 12,000. i. Some background. Although it was already known at the end of the last century that Cuba had nickel deposits, the country's first industrial plant (Nicaro) did not begin operating until 1943. It used U.S. technology and, to a great extent, began operating in response to the great demand for steel in the United States during World War II. A new economic activity thus emerged and, at the same time, Cuban export capacity was strengthened. However, operations in this plant came to a halt after the war (1947), when the country was already the world’s fourth largest nickel producer25. The outbreak of the Korean War renewed U.S. demand for strategic raw materials and the company resumed operations and expanded its capacity by 75% to 22,700 metric tons. Thus, between 1952 and 1958 nickel production increased at an average annual rate of over 10%. In 1960, a second plant (Moa-Pedro Soto) was put into operation with the capacity to process some 24,000 metric tons of nickel and cobalt. However, following the Cuban Revolution tensions rose between Washington and Havana and the plant was shut down, although it reinitiated operations in 1961 this time without U.S. support. Investment was stepped up when links were established with what was then the former Soviet Union, and Cuba joined the CMEA in 1972. That year, an agreement was signed with the Soviet Union to rehabilitate the Nicaro and Moa plants and to build a new facility in Punta Gorda. A large-scale investment program led to the development of the plant and the area’s infrastructure including port facilities, an airport, a mechanized industrial complex and a polytechnic institute. This promoted the sustained growth of nickel production, which reached a record 46,600 metric tons in 1989 (between 1959-1989 production grew at a median annual rate of more than 3%.). ii. The crisis and the “Special Period”. Until the late 1980s, the countries of the now defunct CMEA guaranteed a secure market and high prices for Cuban nickel and also provided fuel, spare parts, capital goods and other inputs. However, with the collapse of the Eastern European socialist bloc, demand declined and production dropped in the early l990s. In 1994, it was only 26,900 metric tons, down to the levels that Cuba had achieved 30 years earlier and 20,000 metric tons below 1989 production levels (see chart VIII.11). The loss of foreign exchange caused by fewer exports was also exacerbated by the fall in nickel prices (US$6.03 dollars per pound in 1989 to US$2.40 dollars in 1993). Export revenue thus dropped by more than half between 1989 and 1994 (see chart VIII.11). The situation became so critical that operations were almost shut down altogether in 1994. Low use of capacity led to 25 In its 40 months of operation, the plant processed more than three million metric tons of ore and produced some 28,000 metric tons of nickel. 302 extremely high costs; furthermore, there was a shortage of fuel, spare parts and other inputs and the industry was rapidly losing capital investment. During the second half of 1994, a number of factors arose that helped reverse the crisis in the nickel industry. International prices rose and some lines of credit were secured, while new schemas for self-financing in foreign exchange were introduced and the Moa plant in Eastern Cuba began to be modernized. A substantial recovery has been underway since 1995 that has led to much higher export levels, which in 1997 accounted for almost 23% of total overseas sales of goods (see chart VIII.11 again). The value of exports declined in 1997 in response to weakened global market prices, but rebounded once again in 1998. Since the mid 1990s, exports have been redirected, mainly toward Western Europe and Canada. iii. Restructuring and reactivating industry. As we have previously indicated, a decisive factor in the recent recovery of the nickel industry has been the establishment of a company—classified as an international economic partnership—jointly owned by the Compañía General del Níquel, a shareholder in the Moa nickel and cobalt concentrate plant and Sherrit Gordon of Canada. Established in 1994 and called Moa Níquel, the new company's operations include nickel and cobalt extraction, refining and marketing. Prior to 1994, Sherrit purchased a large part of the nickel and cobalt sulfides produced by the Moa plant as raw material for its refinery in Canada. This plant was originally designed for an annual production capacity of 24,000 metric tons thanks to worker incentives, resolving bottlenecks and the inclusion of Sherrit, the plant is currently operating above the previously-mentioned installed-capacity levels. The joint company's assets include the Moa plant, the refinery in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta, and a marketing corporation located in the Bahamas. Cuba granted mining concessions to the company for 60 million metric tons of nickel-producing limonite with 80% proven reserves, which will ensure raw material for the Moa plant’s operations for 25 years. In addition, it conceded the rights to 15,000 hectares with sufficient reserves for another 25 years. Company projections include investments to improve and expand the capacity of the Moa plant. Plant technology and management have already improved significantly, as reflected in rising efficiency indicators. Consumption of four to five metric tons of oil per metric ton of cobalt is now approaching international standards. The ore obtained is nickel-sulfide plus cobalt, which must be refined. Since the necessary refining facilities do not exist on the island, it is processed at the Sherrit refinery in Alberta (one metric ton of sulfide is equivalent to 550 kilograms of nickel, plus cobalt and one metric ton of nickel, plus cobalt is 91% nickel). The Nicaro and Ernesto Guevara plants in Punta Gorda, both State-owned, have also benefited from the partnership in that technology, management and administration have improved and the workforce has been retrained in new skills. The plants now operate according to monthly plans and goals, improved equipment maintenance techniques are being applied, new accounting methods are being used, industrial safety standards have improved and bottlenecks are gradually being eliminated. All the companies currently have technological development areas and there is now an institute for advanced mining and metallurgy studies in the Moa region. More than 300 researchers, professors, engineers, project designers, mid-level technicians and skilled workers are involved in these activities (INIE, 1997). 303 The old Nicaro plant is being technologically modernized. The end product is quality-two sinter, which is 90% nickel and does not require further processing, in contrast to the Moa product. Modernization consists of improving technical and economic parameters to make production more competitive. In the past two years, fuel consumption at the plant was pared from 20 metric tons of oil per metric ton of nickel to 16 metric tons, a level that is in keeping with international standards. Furnace technology is being modified to replace anthracite with additive oil, which ensures greater energy efficiency. Sinter from the Che Guevara and Nicaro plants is of inferior quality, compared to that nickel+cobalt-sulfide of the joint venture. At present, the three plants are engaged in cooperative competition. The experience of the Canadian firm has served to train workers at nickel plants and in other Minbas companies with regard to such issues as maintenance, marketing, economics and there has been cooperation between the Che Guevara and Pedro Soto operations. Industrial rescaling has also taken place in the nickel sector. In the past, the company relied on “reserve units” to tackle frequent technical and maintenance problems, an arrangement that required an unnecessarily large allocation of equipment. Today, maintenance is only provided when necessary, records of daily costs are kept and work brigades have been established with their own budgets. Workplace incentives are used as a means for insuring that production and cost targets are met. The industry has improved competitiveness by 50%, thus bringing it up to international standards. Plans call for decentralizing mining operations in an effort to lower costs. The establishment of specialized service companies has allowed for improvements in quality and price. There is a fourth plant in the municipality of Moa with the same technology as Nicaro with an installed capacity of 3,000 metric tons, but the facility has been left at 70% completion. Work on the plant was begun as a joint project with the CMEA. Construction was subsequently resumed, but investments of US$300 million dollars are required to complete it and the project has since been placed on hold. Lastly, letters of intent have been signed with an Australian company to build a fifth plant in Pinares de Mayari. iv. Prospects. The recent performance of the nickel industry indicates that the recovery initiated in 1995 is likely to continue. Favorable investment prospects to modernize, expand capacity and explore new deposits are likely to increase nickel’s share of GDP and exports. The potential for development is considered promising, in view of the low cost of extraction (from open-pit mines); good infrastructure (ports, airports, highways, services, etc.); skilled, retrained staff; competitive wages; improved technology; and efficient energy consumption. Global demand is expected to grow modestly in the future. New projects have been planned that will expand global capacity and exert downside pricing pressures in the coming years. Cuba’s mineral reserves are expected to last for 200 years and current goals call for sustaining international competitiveness by raising production and improving efficiencies. Authorities have expressed the need to diversify production to other fields—such as super alloys and nickel plating—and markets (currently concentrated in Canada, Europe and Asia) to improve the quality of nickel used to manufacture stainless steel, since international demand calls for increasingly higher standards. 304 4. The steel, machinery and electronics industries a) Description During the post-revolutionary period, this sector was largely confined to the workshops created to manufacture spare parts to cover maintenance needs in sugar, construction, mining and metal industry installations. Today, the sector includes companies and institutions whose basic activities are focused on the metal, machine tooling, electronics, data processing and recycling industries. The Ministry for the Machinery and Electronics Industry (SIME) brings together 94 industrial enterprises with more than 130 factories, 12 research and development centers, four engineering firms, 20 raw material recycling operations, 32 data processing projects, two transportation concerns, one construction firm, 34 commercial enterprises, three service providers and two professional improvement centers. The SIME is in charge of defining the industry’s major priorities and global strategies, the members of the boards of each company; and production strategies, while each company takes responsibility for decision-making regarding its own production (see graphs VIII.10 through 12). More than 70,000 workers (35% less than in 1989) are employed in these 203 enterprises, of which almost 10,000 are university graduates, 16,000 are middle-level technicians and more than 30,000 are skilled workers. The products produced in this sector include steel and rod derivatives, nonferrous metal products, farm machinery, transportation vehicles, equipment used for both industrial purposes and for social infrastructure (medical and kitchen equipment), electrical machine, electronics and software, as well as other consumer and intermediate goods. b) Progress in the 1990s A high degree of diversification had already been achieved by the end of the 1980s, but subsequently major setbacks were experienced. The iron and steel industry mainly produced billets and corrugated reinforcing bars, while the machinery branch responded to the various needs of the sugarcane industry (processing plants, spare parts, harvesters). As previously noted, domestic industry provides 60% of sugar-mill components. Other important products are medical equipment and stainless steel for the food and biotechnology industries, containers and tanks, auto parts, auto bodies and household appliances. The electronics industry has begun to manufacture articles such as televisions sets, radios, computer hardware and some software. 305 Graph VIII.10. Cuba: Production and employment in the nonelectric machinery industry 90.0 900 Employment (thousands) 800 Production a/ 85.0 700 600 75.0 500 70.0 1981 million pesos Thousands of people 80.0 400 65.0 300 60.0 200 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: CEPAL, based on official data. a/ At company prices. Graph VIII.11. Cuba: Production and employment in electric- and electro-technical industry 15.0 225 E m ploym ent (thousands) 200 14.0 P roduction a/ 150 12.0 125 11.0 100 10.0 75 9.0 50 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Source: CEPAL, based on official data. a/ At company prices. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1981 m illion pesos Thousands of people 175 13.0 306 Production in the iron and steel and electronics industry decreased 78% and 69%, respectively, between 1989 and 1994. Various investment projects were also suspended, since their completion depended on the continuation of cooperation programs with the former socialist countries. The manufacturing of certain items, such as omnibuses and stainless steel products, practically stopped. However, the industry began to recover as of 1994. As a result, between 1994 and 1997 significant growth was registered in the production of metal products, machinery and equipment and electrical and electronic articles, although the fabrication of transportation equipment continued to decline. Overall industry production remained roughly 40% lower than in 1989 (see chart VIII.12). Chart VIII.12 TRENDS IN PRODUCTION OF METAL PRODUCTS, MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT, 1989-1997 Compound annual growth rate 1997-1989 comparison (%) 1989-1994 1994-1997 Production of common metals -15.0 29.0 95.2 Metal products, except machinery and equipment -31.9 14.6 22.1 Machinery and equipment -28.3 20.9 33.6 Machinery and electrical appliances -20.0 16.5 51.7 Radio, TV and communications equipment -39.1 75.6 45.5 Medical, optical and precision instruments -47.5 26.5 8.1 Transportation equipment -24.2 -9.8 18.4 Source: CEPAL, based on National Statistics Office data and the Statistical Annex. Investment, which was significantly curtailed between 1989 and 1993, began to revive by 1996, although it is estimated that even in 1999 it will continue to considerably lag behind pre-crisis levels. For example, in 1998 capital accumulation in nonelectrical machinery was a mere 37% of 1989 levels, with similar figures for the electronics and electrical industry and metal products standing at 13% and 7.5%, respectively. Some examples of recent investment projects include a gas cylinder factory, as well as plants for producing refrigerators, televisions and canned soft drinks and beer. There are 15 joint ventures involving foreign investors who mainly supply technologies. The ATEC company offers a special example of the ups and downs of the consumer electronics industry. Launched in 1974 with Soviet technology with an eye toward producing 100,000 television sets per year, the best the company ever managed was to manufacture 96,000 units in 1986. With the onset of the “Special Period”, production plunged to a low of 2,000 sets (1992), at which point companies such as Samsung, Goldstar (now LG Electronics) and Daewoo were approached regarding the possibility of reconverting and developing the industry. Under an agreement with Goldstar, 16,000 television sets rolled off production lines in 1996, and following the signing of an agreement with LG, output was expanded to 53,000 units. Headway has been registered in achieving an increased degree of domestic integration of operations; at present all packaging materials are produced in Cuba and the domestic production of cabinets is soon to get underway. Plans call for one third of all pieces and components to be produced by local industries. A new assembly line was to be acquired in 1999 to allow the plant to produce five LG and three Daewoo, as well as a Cuban-designed model (by Jesús Salcines in 1999) to be marketed under the ATEC brand name. 307 Graph VIII.12. Cuba: Production and employment in the metal-products industry 18.0 250 Employment (thousands) 225 Production a/ 200 175 150 14.0 125 1981 million pesos Thousands of people 16.0 100 12.0 75 10.0 50 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: CEPAL, based on official data. Stainless steel production was renewed, albeit with ups and downs and high costs and domestic demand shows some signs of a recovery, although exports take up 80% of the supply (mainly corrugated bars and billets). The industry's high-energy consumption (energy and scrap iron account for 60% of total costs) prompted the implementation of energy-saving measures, including a changeover to electric furnaces. Steel, in particular, has faced international market pressures, as demand and prices have fallen in the recent past. INSET VIII.6. Production of machinery and replacement parts Domestic production of industrial equipment and replacement parts evolved in recent decades in tandem, with technological and production trends prevailing among the CMEA countries. The dramatic curtailment of economic and trade ties to such countries in the early 1990s produced a severe contraction in domestic and foreign supplies of capital and intermediate goods. Those enterprises attached to the Ministry for the Machinery and Electronics Industries (SIME) fill most of the country’s need for spare parts. Other public-sector agencies, such as the Ministry for the Sugar Industry (Minaz), produce replacement parts for covering the industry’s own equipment and transportation needs, in addition to manufacturing machinery and equipment for sugar mills including boilers, industrial gauge pumps and a series of less complex items. Meanwhile, the Ministry for Basic Industry (Minbas) produces parts and equipment for developing the sector, including transformers and other equipment for the energy sector. 308 The Revolutionary Armed Forces Ministry (Minfar) and Interior Ministry (Minint) have established plants to produce the pieces required to cover the repair needs of the Cuban military while also supplying 20% of domestic production of the machine tooling required in the country’s tourism industry. The Construction Ministry (Micons) produces machinery, equipment, parts, replacement pieces and accessories needed by the sector. The Agricultural Ministry (Minag) manufactures simple machinery and equipment and parts required by the sector. The Transportation Ministry (Mitrans) has set up a network of workshops around the country that produce limited volumes of spare parts and accessories for repairing their own equipment. The Ministry for the Fishing Industry (MIP) produces spare parts and accessories for repairing ships and manufactures small and auxiliary boats. The Ministry for the Food Industry (Minal) produces spare and replacement parts, furnaces and specialdimension equipment, as well as conservation technologies. In synthesis, adverse developments abroad has prompted the establishment of factories and workshops for producing spare parts and accessories that allow Cuban industry to continue to function despite a general shortage of foreign currencies, although this area of production continues to suffer from the absence of economies of scale. Nevertheless, the institutionally disperse nature of such operations tends to stimulate competition for the SIME, a trend that favors improved quality in units produced and offsets the adverse effect of economies of scale on the level of production costs. The machine tool industry continues to be affected by the lack of supplies and the decrease in demand. The paralysis of the construction and automotive industries also reduced the size of the market and led to the shutdown or conversion of some product lines. The bus factory began manufacturing bicycles and now has the capacity to produce 600,000 a year. Nevertheless, a substantial percentage of capacity remains idle26. Another company that manufactured trailers now assembles motorcycles. The notable recovery of the machine tool industry in 1996-1997 (see chart VIII.12) was accompanied by increased productivity, so production has surpassed pre-crisis levels. It is estimated that the vast majority of the companies in this branch are showing a profit. A process of import substitution has produced promising results to date. On the demand side of the equation, there is no preference for domestically produced goods. Cuban-made products such as corrugated bars, wire, gas cylinders, conductors, cables, water heaters, fans, major home appliances, equipment for the nickel industry, compressors, containers and air conditioners must compete in quality and price against imports. c) The policies of the “Special Period” Measures to offset the crisis began to be implemented in 1992, focused particularly on reorganizing company operations and the Ministry’s functions. A decision was made to replace the previous system with strategic business units. In the process, new executive, business management and administrative systems were adopted with the support of academic institutions and universities and efforts were made to improve staff training at all levels. The Ministry has been divided into corporations that plan industrial strategies. Each company’s management structure is comprised of 26 In fact, considering the size of the Cuban population, total production capacity appears to be excessive. 309 a president, three vice presidents (for marketing, exports and imports) and an administrative team with no more than 20 members. Their basic tasks consist of designing and implementing strategies. The corporation and its companies hold meetings to discuss and negotiate the best options and procedures. In 1993, SIME established two basic guidelines: to focus production on solvent markets and to meet the needs of the agroindustrial sector, while increasing competitiveness by converting and resizing industry. In more specific terms, efforts are being aimed at raising quality standards and lowering costs to achieve a majority share of the solvent market (i.e. the domestic market in foreign currency) while gaining a share of foreign markets27. In this regard, the reactivation of this industry has benefited from the financing obtained from these markets and clients, such as the sugarcane industry, agriculture, the nickel industry, tourism, chains of retail stores, etc. The industry has undergone different reconversion processes, which in some cases could be considered regressive, since complex production systems have been replaced by simpler systems to meet the needs of the moment. Thus, as stated, a bus-assembly plant was turned into a bicycle factory and part of the plants that previously manufactured medical equipment were adapted to produce goods for the tourism industry. Production of industrial-kitchen equipment for hotels was promoted and has led to significant foreign-exchange savings. The dynamic growth of tourism has made it an important consumer of goods and services, while also substituting imports. The share of inputs and services of domestic origin has risen from 12% of the total in 1985 to 40% in 1994 (Garcia A., 1996). Light and food industry have made substantial contributions in this regard. Reconversion and rightsizing efforts have been geared toward assuring the supply of inputs and capital goods that the country requires, thus reducing the foreign-currency drain and seeking alternative uses for existing installed capacity. Another important change in the way the industry operates lies in trade activities. The ministry for the sector administers foreign sales through companies that are free to export and import. Other companies provide a marketing system for spare parts and equipment, as well as post-sale service and maintenance. Foreign investment in the industry has slowly begun to increase. In the case of iron fittings, hardware articles, air conditioning systems, elevators and medical equipment, foreign capital has played a significant role and recently some foreign investment has been undertaken in transportation equipment. Nevertheless, technological retrofitting efforts have been predominantly domestic and progress has been somewhat slow. This helps explain why capacity remains underused and work productivity remains below 1990 levels, although trends have shown an upturn over the past three years. In the context of the sharp decline in investment, the necessary resources are still being made available for training and preparing skilled personnel, including company directors, technicians and specialists who take courses at the SIME’s special training institute. 27 The industry has resumed exports of iron fittings, containers, farm machinery (mainly for the sugarcane industry), software and electronic and telephonic cables. 310 The Unecamoto Group proved to be a successful experience in the automotive industry during the “Special Period”. As a holding company for automotive enterprises, it serves as Cuba’s prime source of cars, trucks, omnibuses and internal combustion engines. The company is also engaged in operations for replacing or converting motors to diesel use; automotive services and technical assistance; import and export of automotive units, parts and accessories; as well as handling the storage and control of inventories of State-owned automobiles. This conglomerate consists of four production divisions (special applications, auto parts, omnibuses and trucks and engines), a marketing firm, two joint ventures, one corporation, a research-development-production center and 24 enterprises (22 production units and two export firms). The group’s structure allows it to aid the development of the country’s automotive manufacturing industry, import substitution and personnel training. This conglomerate employs a 7,164-strong workforce. Beginning in 1994, production was expanded, increasing from 47 million to more than 100 million pesos in 1997, thus surpassing 1987-1989 levels. At the same time, profits and costs favorably evolved (sales are expected to total 140 million pesos in 2000). These positive results have made it easier for the group to acquire credit from financial institutions; in fact, domestic banks supply the group with the funds needed to finance the entire industrial cycle including imports and working capital. Nevertheless, the group faces obstacles such as the lack of total financial autonomy needed to offer collateral for some loans, the absence of financial strategies and weak collections. All of these factors imply higher financial costs and, as a result, a reduction in profits and the threat of defaulting on debt amortizations. As a result, the group’s financial strategy hinges on establishing strategic alliances with banks that are related to or maintain a working relationship with the company’s clients. Management also attempts to take maximum advantage of the presence of Banco Nacional de Cuba offices outside the country. Another option involves credit issued by foreign banks and at present the group is negotiating a US$291 million-dollar-line credit from a syndicate of Korean, Italian and Brazilian banks. d) Outlook The machinery sector is facing a very uneven road toward recovery. In some areas, output has surpassed 1989 levels as with the case of such farm tools and industrial machinery as plows, diesel motors, trailers, irrigation equipment and machinery used in the sugar sector. However, other segments of the industry continue to seriously lag behind the production levels registered a decade earlier as is the case of construction equipment, molds, steel structures, transportation equipment, motors for omnibuses, sugarcane combines, refrigeration equipment and a range of additional products. It is necessary to determine which items are viable and worthwhile to continue to produce locally. The aim is to contribute to a selective process of import substitution and production of parts. Indeed, progress has been registered on the level of some products, such as television sets based on Soviet technology that have proven to be high consumers of electric power. In 1999, the industry is expected to surpass the previous record level of mercantile production of 941 million pesos reached in 198728. 28 Mercantile production refers to units that are sold on the market as opposed to those made for self-consumption. 311 5. Medical-pharmaceutical industry a) Description The pharmaceutical industry in Cuba has specific characteristics because it has achieved a high degree of endogenous development. Many of the technologies it uses are its own, although there are also others that are shared as a result of associations with foreign companies. Despite the country’s economic crisis, the government decided to prevent public health-care services from deteriorating as much as possible, and therefore has tried to maintain the objective of efficiency from the financial point of view in terms of medical attention. For this reason, personnel cutbacks were not introduced in the system and medical services have been maintained. The medicine industry in Cuba has been recognized as one of the priority and strategic sectors in public policies. Resources for investment are decided on the highest level and the central government directly allocates such funds. The Medical Pharmaceutical Industry Division (IMEFA), attached to the Public Health Ministry, is the agency responsible for the production and distribution of medicines and pharmaceutical products. It is comprised of 19 companies with 41 factories and a research and development center. The industry’s workforce totals 7,000 employees, of which 1,800 are professionals and technicians. IMEFA also operates a marketing company and a maintenance firm and the rest of its operations correspond to manufacturing dental and optical instruments, bandages and other hospital-related materials, containers, raw materials or active ingredients and medications. Of the country’s total consumption of medicines, 87% corresponds to IMEFA in value terms. These include a variety of medicines in the form of pills, injections, semi-solids, those applied in oral-liquid form, eyewashes, capsules, as well as biological products, raw materials, articles, hygienic-sanitary material and dental products. At the same time, the Scientific Pole, attached to the Council of State, contains a series of research and development institutions, as well as those specializing in the production and commercialization of medications. b) Evolution of the industry in the 1990s Contrary to what occurred in most of the Cuba’s industrial branches, in the pharmaceutical sector attention was placed on maintaining investment. The associations with foreign companies in the commercial sphere (in the productive domain, investment is 100% national) have expanded, thanks to the attractiveness of the market, the availability of skilled labor and low costs. Maintaining capital formation has contributed to the modernization and expansion of production of different medications. At the same time, exports have also been increased for products such as ateromixol (PPG) and vaccines against meningitis, hepatitis B and monoclonal antibodies, all manufactured by companies belonging to the Scientific Pole. Thus, the decision to maintain investments, linked to research and development (R&D) activity, mitigated against the effects of the economic crisis. The production of medications only diminished 15% between 1989 and 1993, which compares very favorably with the contraction in the rest of the industry. To a certain degree, the pharmaceutical sector is a special case, since decades previously it had already adopted a firm policy of preparing and training high-quality professional cadre and promoted an intense import substitution process. However, it was not able 312 to advance with the same degree of success in perfecting backward linkages or in reducing dependence on specialized raw materials and pharmaco-chemical products acquired abroad. At present, close to 15% of Cuba’s total production is exported to 18 countries mainly in Latin America, but 90% of the raw material used in the production of medicines is imported. In the past five years, import substitution has allowed for hard-currency savings of US$300 million dollars. Maintaining the spending R&D has contributed to the recovery of production, which in 1999 exceeded 1989 levels and to an improvement in quality and diversification. In 1997, commercial production totaled 93 million pesos, which rose to 103 million pesos in 1998, with 110 million pesos expected in 1999. Promoting exports is a key aspect of the sector’s policy with efforts centered on attacking the Latin-American market. The goal of the Center for Research and Development of Medications is to substitute imports of medicines and develop exports. The main products that are exported are hemoderivatives, cephalosporins, steroids, anesthetics and products for family use. As part of the industry’s business strategy, investment has been reactivated in the recent period and attempts are being made to attract direct foreign investment in several areas, including the production and commercialization of pharmaceutical raw materials, medications that use natural substances as their active ingredient, hospital and medical inputs, research and development of new medications and the design and operation of overseas pharmaceutical plants, among others. INSET VIII.7. Havana’s scientific and technological pole The western part of the city of Havana is home to different research and development centers in the medical and biotechnological sciences, whose role has been key in Cuba’s rise as an important supplier of medications in Latin America. The priority and the support that the Cuban government has given to scientific research and the investment sustained throughout three decades has allowed the country to build up an extensive scientific and technological infrastructure that enjoys the recognition of health-care and scientific institutions from all over the world. The Instituto Finlay is devoted to research and production of vaccines for human use. Among its main achievements are the creation and production of the first and only vaccine effective on a world level against group B meningococcus (VA-MENGOC-BC). It is also developing research to discover vaccines against illnesses that still are resistant to prophylactic-healing measures. The Institute’s four divisions work in different projects, the most important of which are vaccines against leptospirosis and cholera, the combined meningitis BC/hepatitis B vaccine and the tetanus-diphtheria-Pertusis vaccine (improved). The mission of the Molecular Immunology Center is to develop medications to fight cancer. As proof that this activity is a high priority, it should be recalled that the center was built in the most critical moment of the “Special Period”, at the beginning of the 1990s. The center also markets a product that prevents the body from rejecting transplanted organs and has a risk contract with Canada for conducting clinical trials in that country. At present, the center is developing a series of indicators to measure their effectiveness. 313 The Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology Center (CIGB) was founded in 1986 and has become one of the most important in the biosciences in Cuba. In its beginnings, the CIGB was devoted to the production and commercialization of a single medication in small quantities; today, it produces many different medicines in industrial quantities that are sold in the domestic market and are also exported, mainly to the Far East. The center’s research is focused on the recombination of DNA, transgenic work with vegetable and animal cells, the generation of monoclonal antibodies, the chemical synthesis of biomolecules and other cutting-edge technologies, in addition to its zeal to find a vaccine against AIDS. Key in the CIGB’s development has been its ties with a marketing company, Hebert Biotec, founded in 1991, which has significantly boosted its sales. The National Center for Biologically Prepared Products (BioCen), founded in 1992, is an industrial complex dedicated to different productive lines in the field of biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. Their products are used in microbiological procedures, fermentations, the food industry and environmental control, products for senior citizens, high-performance athletes and the ill, among other applications. BioCen’s research is focused on obtaining and subsequently improving: i) new forms of cultivation and nutritional bases; ii) allergenic extracts for diagnosis and immunotherapy; iii) monoclonal antibodies; and iv) diagnostic experiments and reagents. To develop its activities, the Center has highly trained personnel and its production process meets ISO standards. Recently, the U.S. government gave its consent so that the British company Smith Kline Beecham could collaborate with Cuban researchers in testing a vaccine against meningitis, for its possible use in the United States. Cuban researchers report that the vaccine, developed in 1989 by the Instituto Finlay, is 83% effective. Cuba has already sold it to Brazil, Argentina and Colombia. According to the agreement, the British company has worldwide rights to market the vaccine outside of Cuba and will pay the Institute a certain sum for each approval of the vaccine and patent rights once sales begin. c) Policies in search of competitiveness In order to improve the use of resources, a rationalization and savings program was undertaken, encompassing both medications and other inputs such as financial resources. A base level family medical program was also developed to correct the unnecessary use of the country’s hospital infrastructure. As a result, the occupation index in hospitals diminished, as did the average length of hospital stays. Finally, the practice of “indulgence prescriptions" was combated and it has been possible to reduce complementary medical examinations by 30%. Six companies in the pharmaceutical industry have been identified for their proposed participation in the Entrepreneurship-Upgrading System, with the objective of continuing to improve management practices and workplace training. Guaranteeing quality takes place through adherence to regulatory guidelines and ISO 9000 norms. The industry earmarks important resources for research and development, what has made it possible to produce 322 formulas in all therapeutic categories of generic medications. It should be noted that some companies in the sector provide their workers with incentives. 314 d) Perspectives Despite the crisis, the pharmaceutical industry has not interrupted its development. It has continued encouraging investment and export projects. The need is clear to advance in the medium term in redefining the scope of production, in improving interindustrial articulation and at the same time to promote exports, which could contribute to the signing of agreements with transnational companies that dominate world markets and production. In the medium term, the industry seeks to: i) achieve a greater diversity in the medicines it supplies; ii) increase exports; and iii) boost scientific and technological development. 6. Construction materials a) Description The construction material industry has been key in Cuban industrial development, as well as in satisfying the basic needs of infrastructure, housing, education, health-care and now tourism. The main items that it produces are: i) cement, the key input of the construction industry, which has been recovering its previous production levels; ii) marble, which is extracted and cut and processed in three complexes with a productive capacity of 450,000 square meters. Its main use is in the tourism sector and 10% of production is exported (previously the figure was 25%); iii) asbestos sheets, pipes, tanks, in four production complexes; and iv) waterproofing, plastic parts, white ceramic, floors, coatings and bathroom fixtures, two complexes with an investment program that will triple current capacity. About 66% of Cuba’s input in this field is imported. The technology used by the industry is mature and most of the raw materials are domestically produced. There are also local companies that transform raw materials obtained from nearby sources and complexes that produce bricks, thin walls, pottery, etc., which operate with highenergy costs. b) Evolution in the 1990s The industry entered in crisis starting from 1989, when investments fell and thousands of jobs were lost. The main cause of the crisis was the collapse in construction activity, which reduced output by almost fourfold in real terms between 1990 and 1994. The production of construction materials declined 76% between 1989 and 1993, and then it initiated a rebound marked by 2.8% growth in 1994 with a gradual recovery in subsequent years. For example, the production of sawed lumber grew 21.5% annually on average in the 1994-1998 period, gray cement 12% and concrete blocks 8%. Despite everything, production continues to be depressed, although in the case of wood, 1998 output was very close to 1989 levels (see graph VIII.13). In 1997, the construction material industry grew 10% in 1998, 3%; and in 1999, a 3% increase is projected, that is, a similar rhythm to that of the construction industry. Industry employment has decreased thanks to greater efficiency. Salary incentives are provided based on results. There are stores that sell construction materials to the population in Cuban pesos. This activity, due to its high consumption of energy, has been especially affected given limitations in supplies. However, promotional efforts have boosted overseas sales. Cement represents 80% of the industry’s exports, with the rest corresponding to marble, ceramics and materials for housing and marble plaster. Exports of cement rose from less than US$1 million 315 dollars at the beginning of the decade to US$32 million dollars in 1997, while overseas sales of marble declined from more than US$1 million dollars in 1990 to US$379,000 dollars in 1997. c) Policies in the “Special Period” The need to make the industry self-financing in terms of foreign currencies has placed a priority, as has been said, on an export-orientation for production. Thus, objectives of the new corporate entities have been cancelled in favor of establishing goals in terms of expansion and diversification of exports and to reorganize overseas marketing. A good part of the production absorbed by the domestic home market is earmarked for the tourism sector, which in exchange provides financing in foreign currencies to the construction material industry. In addition, joint ventures in production and marketing in international markets have been successfully promoted. Graph VIII.13. Cuba: Production and employment in the construction material industry 60.0 500 Employment (thousands) 450 55.0 400 50.0 350 45.0 300 250 40.0 1981 million pesos Thousands of people Production a/ 200 35.0 150 30.0 100 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: CEPAL, based on official data. a/ At company prices. The hard currency crisis and the oil discoveries led the cement industry to gradually substitute the use of fuel oil and other light fuels with heavy domestic crude. The building construction program has managed to considerably bring down the use of construction materials. In addition, low-cost traditional techniques that use local technologies and materials have been resurrected, which has allowed for the substitution of imported products. In reducing costs, what has been key is streamlining capacity in accordance with the demand of solvent markets (which spurs a reduction in energy consumption), as well as import substitution. 316 The maintenance of the rhythm of housing construction in 1995-1998 (44,000 per year) reflects the efforts undertaken to increase energy efficiency and the use of low-cost local construction materials. The strategy of import substitution has led to the construction of two refractories for cement and pigments. Imported asbestos cement was replaced by sugarcane pulp by-products. In addition, 18 research programs were implemented. d) Perspectives In the construction material industry, energy consumption, transportation logistics, the productive processes and management efforts are the factors that have the most impact on competitiveness. In order to increase competitiveness, the government seeks to promote exports, credit from suppliers, substitute imports and guarantee the delivery of material on time with adequate quality. For this reason, coordination groups have been formed with the tourism sector in Havana, Varadero and Cayo Coco, which it is hoped will contribute to strengthening the industry’s linkages with investors and manufacturers. 7. The small company As in the vast majority of countries, the presence in Cuba of small companies in the manufacturing industry was very common and generalized. At the end of the 1950s, 80% of nonsugar industry establishments employed less than 25 people. From that point on, the development of large-scale vertically integrated companies was promoted, albeit not very articulated with the rest of the country’s production base and going against the opposite trend in the world, in which since the mid 1970s the participation of small, flexible enterprises has been strengthened, capable of differentiating products and taking advantage of modern computer technologies. At the end of the 1980s, small industrial companies in Cuba were a not very common phenomenon. However, two elements point to a reverse trend. To begin with, the deregulation of markets and the legalization of self-employment created spaces for the resurgence of small-scale activities. In the same sense, there was pressure from the displacement of surplus labor power as a result of the crisis and the demands of productive reconversion. Apart from this, due to companies’ exaggerated vertical integration, it was advisable to segregate out auxiliary activities that could be carried out better and at a lower cost by small-decentralized businesses. Thus, in recent years there has been a growing market participation by small companies, although they generally continue being integrated or subordinated to a higher management level. Between 1992 and 1999, the number of government companies remained practically the same, while 1,447 low-level business enterprises emerged with new forms of organization, mainly due to the fragmentation of the public corporations and the conversion of factories or shops into companies with their own legal status. The industrial structure by company size shows a trend toward smaller units, although large enterprises continue dominating the scene. In 1999, State enterprises with more than 200 workers represented 61% of the total, compared to 91% in 1991. In any event, it would be worthwhile to promote the formation and development of small companies in activities employing mature technologies and with low investment requirements (Trueba, 1996). Examples of this would be the production of items for personal use, processed foods, wooden furniture, handicrafts, the repair of different articles, production of metal parts, industrial maintenance, among others. In this field, the first condition to be met would consist of 317 opening up some access to bank financing and then to support small industry through outsourcing schemas with the State consortia, the creation of common services and technical support. E. CHALLENGES POSED BY INDUSTRIAL POLICIES As we have been reiterating in this section, the jumping off point for Cuba’s de facto industrial policy is the chronic shortage of foreign currencies. With this in mind, a priority has been placed on activities capable of bringing in foreign currencies through exports, sales to solvent markets and import substitution. As a result, the industrial sector’s performance in recent years has been uneven and the privileged activities have made greater headway than production earmarked for the domestic market. At the same time, this lack of foreign-currency conditions macroeconomic policies, which seek to maintain external accounts under control. The formation of a new industrial policy in Cuba will have to advance hand in hand with the results of the macroeconomic adjustment. In normal circumstances, international experience indicates that the probability of success is greater in a stable macroeconomic environment. Industrial development policies are usually more effective an economy is characterized by low inflation, healthy public finances and a reasonable balance in the foreign-exchange market and external accounts. It is also advisable to have a banking sector committed to encouraging savings and investment, an apparatus that promotes production and a productive system less encumbered by bureaucratic obstacles. Such premises are barely beginning to appear today in Cuba. The country is being forced to pass through a period of transition and adjustment in which a return to macroeconomic stability and a structural change that imposes a renewed viability on economic growth must simultaneously be achieved. Both requirements prevent implementation of conventional medium and long-term industrial strategies since the circumstances demand that the most urgent necessities be attended to, while the most important structural factors receive partial attention, such as the reconstruction of external economic ties or resolving bottlenecks in energy supplies. The transitional stage has already been underway for almost a decade now and it should not be prolonged for too long a period. With this in mind, efforts should be undertaken so that the changes in economic strategy are also accompanied by deliberate and substantial modifications in the institutional framework, as can already be seen in the agrarian, fiscal, bank reforms or in the liberalization of some markets. The rest of this section will succinctly explore some elements that can be considered indispensable in a discussion on the need to instrument an explicit industrial development policy in Cuba. Such a consideration is based on a recognition of the restrictions derived from the adjustment program and outside attempts to economically strangle the country, as well as the agreements adopted within the World Trade Organization. Later on, discussion will focus on the central issues that will have to be dealt with in such a discussion (see García Hernández, 1996). 318 1. Energy efficience The solution to the lack of domestic sources of energy and the high intrinsic and technological use of energy by the main productive industries, in particular the export sector, raises one of the central problems of the development of the Cuban economy. To improve energy efficiency requires enormous investments in the reconversion of the production base or in the installation of fuel saving systems. To increase the energy supply would also generate a strong demand for capital, both to conclude work on the country’s thermoelectric nuclear-power plant, as well as to intensify the exploration, extraction and refining of crude oil or to develop alternative sources of energy. Increasing the supply of imported fuel would be another type of solution, but this depends on alleviating the strangulating effect of such overseas payments. Advances have been registered in terms of reducing energy consumption, the reconversion of technologies and equipment, increasing domestic oil output and generating greater foreign-currency inflows. Nonetheless, major problems remain that would place limits on the rhythm of the economic recovery of industry, even on its structural remodeling. Solutions to this problem reside in the development of long-term productive and export activities that involve less intensive use of energy or in the development of new power sources. All of this could be more easily achieved if Cuba had access to temporary foreign-financial aid. 2. Industrial restructuring The process of industrial restructuring has advanced albeit with certain slowness. The activities undertaken in this regard show promising results, but the industrial dynamics ultimately depend on the pace of the structural reforms, that is, on lifting the restrictions of the “Special Period”. To date, the policy of industrial restructuring had had to concentrate on the closing of production lines, the reorganization of the productive flows, reconversion and rationalization of production and, in some cases, layoffs, although very often the affected workers are later reintegrated in the plants. The acquisition of new equipment or the application of technological improvements involves understandable delays due to the shortage of foreign currencies. The technological upgrading and the reorientation of industry toward activities that generate foreign currencies, either through exports or import substitution, will have to continue at a forced pace. Such an effort demands deepening the analysis and the policies on a sectorial and microeconomic scale. In this context it would be worthwhile to make a distinction between different policies applicable to different industrial branches (Marquetti, 1996): i) branches that with more moderate technological innovations could soon achieve levels of efficiency comparable to those of the leading countries in Latin America. It should be recalled that Cuba’s technological support infrastructure includes 210 research centers and 20,000 researchers; ii) industries that would demand a considerable reconversion effort, but which are considered profitable or a priority in the medium term; and iii) sectors that due to their technological backwardness, priority, or other considerations, should be considered unviable in terms of their reactivation. The previous elements could be complemented with criteria related to social efficiency, linked to the satisfaction of the population’s basic necessities (food, employment), which would lead to temporarily reactivating some production, independently of competitive conditions. This would also be justified due to the large workforce that these industries traditionally absorb and the wide margin that exists for substituting imports. 319 In any case, industrial modernization will mean the segregation of part of the workforce. It is estimated that this process already affects about 200,000 workers. The displaced workers are receiving retraining, in accordance with the needs of industrial reconversion and the country’s new domestic productive characteristics. In addition, it would be advisable to make legal stipulations on self-employment more flexible in order to encourage and diversify the deregulated activities and to give a spurt to the creation of small productive units. 3. Regional/subsectorial focus The tendency in most Latin-American countries indicates the prevalence of horizontal industrial development policies, that is, policies that do not discriminate between branches or companies or select “winning activities”. The basic objective is to “even out the playing field” so that all companies face similar competitive conditions. In some countries this paradigm has been insufficient or counterproductive when it is not complemented with actions of a more precise and specific nature, especially given the deep going liberalizations in foreign trade (Peres 1996 & Secofi 1996). In Cuba, a pragmatic approach that combined actions of a horizontal nature, in which in fact the country has several comparative advantages (education, support infrastructure and technological services) with microeconomic programs, in function of national priorities, could be advisable, especially in light of the long experience in the field of planning and the shortage of financial resources. In addition, industrial planning could be enriched with regional focuses that would explicitly allow regions or localities with industrial potential or susceptibility to be incorporated. The abundant availability of labor power and trained technicians, as well as the infrastructure developed in numerous localities within the country, suggest that such a strategy could bare fruits in the short term, further strengthening the potential for balanced regional development. At this point, it would be worth emphasizing the importance of recovering the links between primary activities and the industrial sector, especially in the food agroindustry area. The reasons are obvious: their contribution to satisfying basic needs, to import substitution, to employment, to providing greater efficiency by taking better advantage of installed capacity and, later on, to overseas sales. All this would generate multiplier effects in the entire production base. In any economy, developed or developing, it is common that the food industry absorbs a good part of manufacturing output and employment. In Cuba, most of the food industry installations are producing less, in real terms, than 10 years ago, and therefore it is urgent that a common policy involving the agricultural-cattle breeding and manufacturing sectors be coordinated, aimed at rapidly recovering production and competitiveness. In any case, independently of the industrial development focus that Cuba choosesranging from horizontal to the most micro-oriented policiesit is of key importance to advance even further in the decentralization of decision-making. Without slighting the progress that has been made, the demands of modernization and the international markets are forcing companies to respond quickly and flexibly, which is rendered more difficult in a complex framework of pyramidal decision-making. 320 4. Promotion of exports and import substitution The objective of increasing revenue from exports and to reconstruct the country’s foreign-trade networks will continue being a major priority, both to ameliorate the pressures of external attempts to strangle the economy as well as to make future sustained development viable. The goal of efficient import substitution, in which Cuban industry is gradually advancing, fulfills the same functions. This is related to the need for Cuban industry to occupy or recover domestic demand niches that are currently satisfied to a great extent with excessive imports. The strengthening and greater scope of such a strategy would facilitate inter-industrial articulations and generate multiplier effects that would become an important source of dynamism for manufacturing activities. The recent substitution of imports has been an essential consequence of the need for foreign currencies and the supply of inputs and services to the export sector. In the future, it would be advisable to more precisely delineate a strategy of efficient and selective import substitution. As has been said, very broad possibilities exist for the penetration of Cuban products in the country’s own market (inputs for tourism, textiles, clothing, footwear, chemical products, tires, electrical appliances, paper, containers, among other items). This would lead growth strategies to expand both outwardly and inwardly, as has occurred in the most successful Southeast Asian countries. This, to be sure, requires redoubled efforts as regards productivity, because, as has been said, industry should compete in equal conditions vis-à-vis imports. Thus, far overseas sales involve few products, but soon other goods will join their ranks and pose new export goals. At present, exports are concentrated in traditional products of low industrial value added (sugar and other processed foods, nickel and light manufactured goods). This pattern of specialization will continue dominating foreign-currency generation in the short and medium terms, but it would be worthwhile to include new products that take advantage of the existing comparative benefits or to develop other new items that try to incorporate technician progress and knowledge. It should be kept in mind that the efforts to increase exports tend, at least in the short term, to spur an increase in marginal tendencies to import items, in view of the scarce internal articulation of the economy and the difficulties to reactivate the production of intermediate goods. Therefore, it is important to promote a process of productive rearticulation, first of all oriented to the integration of chains around the sources of industrial dynamism and then toward other sectors that have lagged behind. This approach would only produce results in the medium-long term, but now is the time to begin. In summary, from a dynamic perspective, Cuba’s industrial development strategy should maintain a focus of stimulating exports that currently compete advantageously in the world market and gradually strengthen the selective substitution of imports. Toward the medium term, programs should be undertaken with a view to diversifying exports. 321 5. The role of the small company The world experience has demonstrated that a balanced regional development is favorable for the emergence and establishment of small production units in localities that are also small. As was previously mentioned, in Cuba small industry has begun to reemerge, particularly due to the fragmentation of large companies, corrections in excessive vertical integration or the possibility of establishing family businesses in many industrial and services divisions. The steps taken to promote a greater participation by such units in productive activity are moderate in scope, but could be deepened with regional development policies and plans for the formation of interconnected company networks. In fact, the transformations in the industrial apparatus point to the formation of smaller-size companies and perfecting decentralized managerial policies that are innovative and offer more autonomy. In addition, there are elements that favor the development of small modern companies, such as an educated population, a trained workforce and the existence of a technological-support infrastructure. Many large companies that are currently characterized by an excessive level of vertical integration could outsource certain activities related to the productive process or support services to small companies. This would encourage an efficient and complementary cooperation among different size companies. In conclusion, the strategy of reactivating Cuban industry could be broken down into several priorities and phases (García, 1996). In the immediate term, production for export and food should be attended to, along with the more efficient use of energy resources. Simultaneously, it would be necessary to perfect the export sector’s internal linkages and take advantage of the greater purchasing capacity of revenue from exports and tourism, as well as to reactivate imports of intermediate and capital goods inputs for very diverse industries. In addition, it would be necessary to facilitate spaces for small and medium-sized industry, to promote managerial, commercial and business professional formation, as well as to more precisely determine other microeconomic necessities. F. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1. 2. At the end of the 1990s, Cuban manufacturing is undergoing a process of moderate reactivation, following the collapse of production and investment from 1989-1993. The favorable tendencies noted in 1995-1997 have been maintained with different rhythms and intensities, depending on the sector. As the crisis affected the industrial branches differently, the recovery is also unequal. In general, the manufacturing activities connected the foreign-currency circuit are recovering more rapidly than those oriented to the domestic market. Thus, the production of some products, for example, exceeds levels of a decade ago, but most of the industries remain below their 1989 output and the weakness of investment hinders the sustained reactivation of the manufacturing sector. Cuban industry continues to be characterized by a high degree of dependence on imported raw materials. In some cases, such a dependence is justifiable due to technological reasons and economies of scale, but there is ample space for the efficient substitution of a great diversity of imports. To date, the process displays a sustained, although measured growth trend. In the short 322 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. term, the priority placed on exports will lead to an increase in the inclination to import, although here a certain displacement of overseas purchases is already taking shape. The program of business streamlining has registered progress and concrete achievements. Plant sizes have decreased, better advantage is being taken of installed capacity and numerous services that previously were undertaken in the manufacturing installations themselves have been outsourced. These advances are significant in basic industry, metal-mechanics and in some branches of the light industry, such as clothing and footwear. This has also contributed to improving energy efficiency, although in general, industry is far from reaching international levels. In particular, in the textile industryone of the major energy consumersprogress has been limited. The decentralization in decision-making has scored moderate advances, partly because a selfmanagement culture has not totally permeated among businessmen, even though there are many companies that manage their budgets in foreign currencies and apply salary-incentive formulas. In addition, some bottlenecks remain that must be eliminated to promote business administration. For example, companies cannot decide on their product mix or set prices and investments above a certain amount must be analyzed and approved by higher authorities. Foreign-investor participation is concentrated in certain activities (nickel, personal hygiene products), although it has been gradually expanding to new fields. Moreover, the “cooperated production” modality is gaining ground, through which a foreign partner contributes financing and technology to investment projects and receives royalties during a preestablished period of time. Cuban ownership remains intact and the company administration is also Cuban. Contrary to the mixed-ownership-company format, there is no profit distribution for the foreign partner. The Entrepreneurship-Upgrading System (SPE) has been implemented, which seeks to promote a more efficient use of the material, financial and human resources that the companies have at their disposal, through greater autonomy in decision-making. Expectations are favorable for program’ medium-term results due to its tendency to expand its scope, provided the system encompasses a growing number of companies. Competitiveness is a systemic phenomenon and it makes it difficult for companies in the SPE program to fully develop their capacities when only based on a “world-class productive enclave”. The number of workers who receive material incentives in the manufacturing industry has increased considerably in the past three years. Although this system began by mainly providing incentives in kind, now a growing trend is underway to offer cash. In any event, it should be noted that the improvements in efficiency and productivity have a limit that will be difficult to surpass, as long as there is no sustained reactivation of investment. In summary, capital formation must be made more dynamic to take maximum advantage of the gains in productivity. But at this point, this effort collides with external attempts to strangle the economy, which obstructs access to international capital markets and limits the availability of hard currency for investment. The options for Cuban manufacturing to technologically advance bare a critical relation to the availability of resources for investment and these, in turn, are linked with a gradual loosening of external restrictions. There are cases in which technological updating is subordinated to investment priorities and efforts at innovation, as well as technological development (for example, nickel). However, in many other activities a low technological level is maintained, which only allows companies to survive in markets in which there is less competitive pressure (for example, the domestic market in pesos or nontradable goods). Industrial companies are achieving gradual access to local bank financing. Loans are in Cuban pesos and in foreign currencies, and the interest rates remain relatively high (12%-14%). 323 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. However, this represents progress compared to the situation in mid 1990s, when domestic credit was very scarce and external financing nonexistent or very expensive. The manufacturing activities conducted by self-employed artisans continue to have very little weight in industry as a whole. The State’s policies do not contemplate measures to actively promote their development, and the radius of action of these activities is mainly reduced to simple tasks, such as repair services, more than manufacturing as such. Apprehension over the crisis has led industrial strategy in Cuba to be expressed in support for those activities that generate net foreign currencies or substitute imports. What is promoted is production earmarked for solvent markets, such as exports, tourism and the domestic market in foreign currencies. Production that does not have demand in these marketsexcept in priority segments, such as certain foods, clothing and medicationscontinues falling behind. Meanwhile, the foreign currencies contributed by exports and import substitution help maintain social production, for example, medications, vaccines and items for newborn babies, among others. Macroeconomic restrictions remain in effect. The maximum efforts in the country’s economic policy are mainly geared to maintaining a balance in foreign trade, a restriction that industry must adjust to. The imbalances that persist, notably in the foreign-exchange market, hinder the operations of manufacturing companies. To the degree that the country advances in resolving its external strangulation, it is felt that it would be advisable to proceed in defining an industrial development strategy. Throughout the “Special Period” the industrial policy has been able to establish a strategy of survival and, in some, cases, of developing exports and import substitution. At the same time, in the medium term it will be indispensable to implement a less defensive strategy, more active in incorporating the backward sectors, especially those that attend to the domestic market. Trends in production have an impact on the configuration of a new productive and technological profile for Cuban industry, in which activities with demand in international markets or in solvent domestic markets gain weight within the country’s production, while those that depend on domestic demand fall behind. On this level, it is particularly noteworthy that a good part of the new investments and joint projects are in association with foreign companies that do not always offer the best technology, but are the only ones available with which to sign agreements. In summary, Cuban industry has posted improvements in the past three years. Such signs are not generalized and imply a modest expansion that, at the same time, is insufficient for the sector to resume a leadership role in the country’s growth. Without ignoring the advances, it is necessary to reinforce efforts in terms of efficient and interlinked import substitution, export promotion and a greater articulation of the production base. On the other side of the ledger, it is necessary to recognize that with the obstacles and most important deficiencies clearly delineated, solutions go beyond the reach of the microeconomic scope of Cuba’s industrial policies. The solutions have to be gradual and measured in accordance with the pace at which hard currency restrictions can be alleviated. To a certain extent, the increase in exports will allow the manufacturing sector to be modernized more rapidly, which, in turn, will enable it to contribute through an effective substitution of foreign purchases to a virtuous circle that gradually eliminates the greatest obstacle to the growth of the economy.
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