The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Options for Improvement Floribert Ngaruko1 Abstract Using the results-chain approach to capacity building and the PARIS21 framework, this paper discusses the use of statistical activities and outputs by the World Bank to measure statistical capacity. The paper focuses on the strengths and weaknesses of the World Bank’s approach, and explores options for improving the indicator that results from it. While international comparability and cost effectiveness are the main strengths of the approach, the overemphasis that it places on statistical activities and outputs to the detriment of characteristics of statistical systems and data-producing agencies represents its main weakness, which causes the indicator to capture performance instead of actual capacity. To improve the World Bank approach would require refining the method of aggregation of the ratings of various aspects of statistical capacity, activities and outputs, and more critically, to take due account of statistical capacity utilization, which is the missing link in the World Bank approach between statistical activities/outputs and statistical capacity. Key Words: Statistical capacity indicator, Capacity building, Capacity utilization, PARIS21, Capacity building results-chain framework Résumé En recourant au cadre conceptuel de PARIS21 ainsi qu’à l’approche par la chaîne des résultats aujourd’hui utilisée dans le renforcement des capacités, cet article discute de l’utilisation par la Banque mondiale, des activités et de la production statistiques pour mesurer les capacités des systèmes statistiques des pays. L’article identifie les forces et les faiblesses de cette approche, et explore les options pour améliorer l’indicateur qui en résulte. Si la comparabilité au plan internationale et le faible coût sont les principaux atouts de l’approche, sa focalisation sur les activités et la production statistiques au détriment des caractéristiques des systèmes statistiques et des agences de production des données reste sa principale faiblesse, qui fait que l’indicateur reflète la performance Coordinator of the ACBF Technical Advisory Panel and Network on National Statistics and Statistical Systems (STATNET); The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF); ZB Life Towers; Cnr. Jason Moyo Ave / Sam Nujoma St.; Harare; Zimbabwe ([email protected]); (00-263) 4 702 931/2; 790 398/9; 700 208/10/14; 799 783/87; 799 810/12. This paper does not necessarily reflect the views of the ACBF or STATNET. 1 164 African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique africain, numéro 7, novembre 2008 The 149 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko the davantage approach queto lescapacity capacitésbuilding à proprement and align parler.it Pour to theaméliorer paradigm l’approche, of resultsle based papier management. suggère l’affinement Thesedeefforts la méthode resulted d’agrégation in the framework des indicateurs knowndes as difthe “capacity férentes composantes building results-chain des systèmes statistiques, approach.” The des activités paper refers et de to la this production framework statistiques, in its attempt et surtouttolacapture prise enthecompte very meaning du degréofd’utilisation statistical capacity. des capacités existantes qui est le chaînon manquant dans l’approche de la Banque mondiale, entre et capacités statistiques. Second, theactivités/production paper relies on recent developments in terms of the measurement of statistical capacity at the international level. The formulation of the MotsWB’s clés framework : Indicateuralso de capacités took place statistiques, at a time Renforcement when there was des considercapacités, able Utilisation momentum des capacités, to improve PARIS21, statistics, Approche statistical du renforcement capacity, and desstatistical capacités capacity par la chaîne measurement des résultats. in developing countries. In November 1999, this resulted in the launch of the PARIS21 Consortium, a global forum and network aimed at promoting and facilitating statistical capacity building and use of statistics. It also led to the establishment of the PARIS21 1. better iNtroductioN Task Team, which in May 2001 was tasked with devising an approach to statistical capacity building measurement. Forrating the purposes this paper, The World Bank (henceforth WB) has been countriesofaround the the PARIS21 against which the WB’s apworld for theirframework statistical provides capacity benchmarks since 2004. The WB’s indicator of staproach to statistical measurement can be assessed. tistical capacity usescapacity information publicly available to assess three aspects, namely statistical practices, data collection activities, and statistics availThe paper’s reliance on the results chain and the ability. Recently, the WB has capacity indicatedbuilding its intention to improve its on framePARIS21 approachescapacity resonates not only with the specific subject matter work for statistical measurement by shifting toward a new apbut alsofocusing with the instrumental role that institutional the WB played in the development proach on four dimensions: framework, statistical 2 of these approaches. Indeed,and notdata onlydissemination. did it spearhead the promotion of methodology, data sources, the capacity building results chain approach but, in concert with the UN, OECD, IMF, of andthis thepaper EC, the also co-founded the PARIS21 ConsorThe objective is toWB contribute to this improvement effort, notium. Moreover, it was also part PARIS21 Team, and assumed tably by proposing an analysis of of thethe strengths andTask weaknesses of the WB’s 3 the PARIS21 Task Team’s secretariat. existing approach to statistical capacity measurement, and by exploring some options for its enhancement. Specifically, the paper seeks to explore the rationale andPARIS21 modalitiesframework of the WB’s statistical activities and Using both the anduse theofcapacity building results outputsapproach, to measure capacity,the to determine problems activities that this chain thisstatistical paper explores WB’s use the of statistical poses, and totodevise some options capacity. as to howItthe WB’s indicator couldthat be and outputs measure statistical identifies the problems improved better captureinsights actual statistical this poses,toand provides into how capacity. the WB’s indicator could be improved so as to better reflect statistical capacity. The paper hypothesizes that the WB’s focus on statistical activities and outputs to measure statistical capacity, to the detriment of aspects related to statistical systems and data-producing agencies, results in the indicator poorly reflecting actual statistical capacity. To support this hypothesis, the 3 The membership of the PARIS21 Task Team was as follows: the IMF, Chair (Ms. L. paper uses a two-pronged approach. First, the paper builds on the new Laliberté, Chairperson, Mr. T. Morrison, Mr. J. Bové and Mr. S. Khawaja), the World understanding of, and approachSecretariat, to capacity capacityand enhancement. Bank, Secretariat (Mrs. M. Harrison, Mr. and M. Belkindas, Mr. G. Eele), Indeed, the development of the measuring statistical the UN Statistics Division, UNSD (Mr.WB’s W. de framework Vries), the UNfor Economic Commission for Latin America and the when Caribbean, UN ECLACefforts (Ms. B. Carlson), and the UN capacity occurred international were underway toEconomic revamp Commission of Europe, UNECE (Mr. J-E. Chapron), and AFRISTAT (Mr. Lamine Diop). The Consultants to the PARIS21 Task Team were Mr. D. Allen, Mr. T. Holt and 2 Mr. Fantom J. van Tongeren. and Watanabe (2008). 150 African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique statistique africain, africain, numéro numéro 7, 7, novembre novembre 2008 2008 166 The Le Journal 165 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko the davantage approach queto lescapacity capacitésbuilding à proprement and align parler.it Pour to theaméliorer paradigm l’approche, of resultsle based papier management. suggère l’affinement Thesedeefforts la méthode resulted d’agrégation in the framework des indicateurs knowndes as difthe “capacity férentes composantes building results-chain des systèmes statistiques, approach.” The des activités paper refers et de to la this production framework statistiques, in its attempt et surtouttolacapture prise enthecompte very meaning du degréofd’utilisation statistical capacity. des capacités existantes qui est le chaînon manquant dans l’approche de la Banque mondiale, entre et capacités statistiques. Second, theactivités/production paper relies on recent developments in terms of the measurement of statistical capacity at the international level. The formulation of the MotsWB’s clés framework : Indicateuralso de capacités took place statistiques, at a time Renforcement when there was des considercapacités, able Utilisation momentum des capacités, to improve PARIS21, statistics, Approche statistical du renforcement capacity, and desstatistical capacités capacity par la chaîne measurement des résultats. in developing countries. In November 1999, this resulted in the launch of the PARIS21 Consortium, a global forum and network aimed at promoting and facilitating statistical capacity building and use of statistics. It also led to the establishment of the PARIS21 1. better iNtroductioN Task Team, which in May 2001 was tasked with devising an approach to statistical capacity building measurement. Forrating the purposes this paper, The World Bank (henceforth WB) has been countriesofaround the the PARIS21 against which the WB’s apworld for theirframework statistical provides capacity benchmarks since 2004. The WB’s indicator of staproach to statistical measurement can be assessed. tistical capacity usescapacity information publicly available to assess three aspects, namely statistical practices, data collection activities, and statistics availThe paper’s reliance on the results chain and the ability. Recently, the WB has capacity indicatedbuilding its intention to improve its on framePARIS21 approachescapacity resonates not only with the specific subject matter work for statistical measurement by shifting toward a new apbut alsofocusing with the instrumental role that institutional the WB played in the development proach on four dimensions: framework, statistical 2 of these approaches. Indeed,and notdata onlydissemination. did it spearhead the promotion of methodology, data sources, the capacity building results chain approach but, in concert with the UN, OECD, IMF, of andthis thepaper EC, the also co-founded the PARIS21 ConsorThe objective is toWB contribute to this improvement effort, notium. Moreover, it was also part PARIS21 Team, and assumed tably by proposing an analysis of of thethe strengths andTask weaknesses of the WB’s 3 the PARIS21 Task Team’s secretariat. existing approach to statistical capacity measurement, and by exploring some options for its enhancement. Specifically, the paper seeks to explore the rationale andPARIS21 modalitiesframework of the WB’s statistical activities and Using both the anduse theofcapacity building results outputsapproach, to measure capacity,the to determine thestatistical problems activities that this chain thisstatistical paper explores WB’s use of poses, and totodevise some options capacity. as to howItthe WB’s indicator couldthat be and outputs measure statistical identifies the problems improved better captureinsights actual statistical this poses,toand provides into how capacity. the WB’s indicator could be improved so as to better reflect statistical capacity. The paper hypothesizes that the WB’s focus on statistical activities and outputs to measure statistical capacity, to the detriment of aspects related to statistical systems and data-producing agencies, results in the indicator poorly reflecting actual statistical capacity. To support this hypothesis, the 3 The membership of the PARIS21 Task Team was as follows: the IMF, Chair (Ms. L. paper uses a two-pronged approach. First, the paper builds on the new Laliberté, Chairperson, Mr. T. Morrison, Mr. J. Bové and Mr. S. Khawaja), the World understanding of, and approachSecretariat, to capacity capacityand enhancement. Bank, Secretariat (Mrs. M. Harrison, Mr. and M. Belkindas, Mr. G. Eele), Indeed, the development of the measuring statistical the UN Statistics Division, UNSD (Mr.WB’s W. de framework Vries), the UNfor Economic Commission for Latin America and the when Caribbean, UN ECLACefforts (Ms. B. Carlson), and the UN capacity occurred international were underway toEconomic revamp Commission of Europe, UNECE (Mr. J-E. Chapron), and AFRISTAT (Mr. Lamine Diop). The Consultants to the PARIS21 Task Team were Mr. D. Allen, Mr. T. Holt and 2 Mr. Fantom J. van Tongeren. and Watanabe (2008). 151 166 The African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique africain, numéro 7, novembre 2008 165 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko The the approach rest of thetopaper capacity proceeds building as follows. and align Following it to thethis paradigm introductory of resultssection, basedSection management. 2 focuses These on the efforts characteristics resulted in the of the framework WB’s indicator known of as stathe tistical “capacity capacity, buildinganalyzes results-chain some approach.” of its advantages The paper and refers shortcomings, to this frameand presents work in its some attempt of thetoquestions capture the thatvery it leaves meaning open. ofSection statistical 3 identifies capacity. the aspects of the statistical capacity results chain that this indicator captures, and discusses an improvement in developments data aggregation as a requirement for Second, the paper relies on recent in terms of the measurethe indicatorcapacity to betteratreflect statistical capacity. Section 4 focuses mentWB’s of statistical the international level. The formulation of on utilizationalso as the missing link in thewhen WB’sthere approach between the capacity WB’s framework took place at a time was considerstatistical capacitytoand statistical activities, and as acapacity, central factor that has able momentum improve statistics, statistical and statistical to be taken into accountinfordeveloping statistical activities to consistently capacity measurement countries.and In outputs November 1999, this reflect capacity. 5 concludes the paper. resultedstatistical in the launch of Section the PARIS21 Consortium, a global forum and network aimed at promoting and facilitating statistical capacity building and better use of statistics. It also led to the establishment of the PARIS21 2. Task Team, thewhich frAmeWork in May 2001 was tasked with devising an approach to statistical capacity building measurement. For the purposes of this paper, the PARIS21 framework benchmarks which WB’s apThe WB’s framework forprovides measuring statisticalagainst capacity usesthe three broad proach to statistical capacity measurement can assessed.capacity: (i) stacomponents to derive a composite indicator ofbe statistical tistical practice, (ii) data collection, and (iii) statistics availability (see Annex Statistical practices capturedbuilding by 10 indicators that and referon to the The 1). paper’s reliance on thearecapacity results chain base year ofapproaches national accounts; (or with not) of balance of payments PARIS21 resonatesthe notuse only thethe specific subject matter manual; the status of externalrole debtthat reporting; baseinyear of the Conbut also with the instrumental the WB the played the development sumer Index; the index not of industrial availability of of thesePrice approaches. Indeed, only did itproduction; spearhead the promotion IMF’s import/export the government finance accounting the capacity building prices; results chain approach but, in concert with concept; the UN, the frequency of the to UNESCO; the frequency OECD, IMF, and the enrollment EC, the WBreporting also co-founded the PARIS21 Consorof vaccine reporting to also WHO; thePARIS21 subscription the IMF’s Special tium. Moreover, it was partand of the Taskto Team, and assumed 3 Data Dissemination Standard. As regards data collection, five indicators the PARIS21 Task Team’s secretariat. are used. These include: the periodicity of population censuses; the periodicity agricultural censuses; the periodicity poverty-related Using of both the PARIS21 framework and theofcapacity building surveys results (IES, etc.);this thepaper periodicity of health-related (DHS,activities MICS, chain LSMS, approach, explores the WB’s use surveys of statistical priority survey, andstatistical the completeness registration systems.that As and outputs to etc.); measure capacity.of It vital identifies the problems for cluster statisticalinsights indicator availability, this comprises indicathisthe poses, andofprovides into how the WB’s indicator10could be tors: income poverty, child malnutrition, child mortality, immunization, improved so as to better reflect statistical capacity. HIV/AIDS, maternal health, gender equality, primary school completion, access to water, and per capita GDP growth. Within each of the three clusters cited above, the various items are scored 3 The membership of the PARIS21 Task Team was as follows: the IMF, Chair (Ms. L. on the same scale and given equal weight. To obtain the overall score of Laliberté, Chairperson, Mr. T. Morrison, Mr. J. Bové and Mr. S. Khawaja), the World statistical capacity, three components’ scores are givenandequal weight Bank, Secretariat (Mrs. the M. Harrison, Secretariat, Mr. M. Belkindas, Mr. G. Eele), (see Annex 1).Division, Such overall then used comparisons among the UN Statistics UNSDscores (Mr. W.are de Vries), the UNfor Economic Commission for Latin America the Caribbean, UN ECLAC (Ms. B. Carlson), and the UN Economic countries andandover time. Commission of Europe, UNECE (Mr. J-E. Chapron), and AFRISTAT (Mr. Lamine Diop). The Consultants to the PARIS21 Task Team were Mr. D. Allen, Mr. T. Holt and Mr. J. van Tongeren. 152 African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique statistique africain, africain, numéro numéro 7, 7, novembre novembre 2008 2008 The 166 Le Journal 167 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko Over davantage the past que years, les capacités the indicator à proprement has revealed parler. substantial Pour améliorer contrasts l’approche, among le the papier highest suggère and l’affinement lowest performers. de la méthode For example, d’agrégation Egypt des achieved indicateurs a score des difof 89 férentes on acomposantes zero-to-100des scale systèmes in 2007, statistiques, against des a score activités of only et de17lafor production Liberia. The statistiques, WB’s indicator et surtoutalso la prise shows en important compte du changes degré d’utilisation over time.desFor capacités example, existantes the scores qui estforle Nigeria chaînonand manquant Rwandadans rosel’approche from 51 de andla58 Banque in 2006 monto 62 diale, andentre 71 in activités/production 2007, respectively, et suggesting capacités statistiques. that these countries’ statistical capacities had improved by 22% over a single year. Over the same period, the scores Libya, Guinea-Bissau, and the Central African Republic fell Mots clés for : Indicateur de capacités statistiques, Renforcement des capacités, from 41, 37, 42 in 2006 down to 31, 29,du andrenforcement 33 in 2007,des pointing to Utilisation desand capacités, PARIS21, Approche capacités apar decline in statistical capacity by 24%, 22%, and 21% in these countries, la chaîne des résultats. respectively. A look at these scores for the three dimensions of statistical capacity 1. closeriNtroductioN shows that variations over time are mostly due to changes in data collection the Central African Republic, Bissau,countries Libya, and Nigeria. The in World Bank (henceforth WB) hasGuinea been rating around the The suggest that incapacity these countries, fromThe 2006 to 2007 the magniworldfigures for their statistical since 2004. WB’s indicator of statude ofcapacity change in data collection ranged and 50%. tistical uses information publiclybetween available40% to assess three aspects, namely statistical practices, data collection activities, and statistics availAs theseRecently, figures illustrate, the indicated WB’s indicator can result in huge variations ability. the WB has its intention to improve its frameover periods. Given themeasurement time needed to statistical the workshort for statistical capacity bybuild shifting towardsystems, a new apquestion arises whether indicator adequately captures statistical capacproach focusing on fourthedimensions: institutional framework, statistical ity. Indeed, the criticism that the 2WB indicator obliges methodology, data sources,has andbeen datamade dissemination. countries to continue to carry out statistical activities and produce outputs at regular intervals orderis to contribute maintain high scores, as to do effort, otherwise The objective of thisinpaper to this improvement no4 would in significant declines their scores statistical of capacity. tably byresult proposing an analysis of theinstrengths andofweaknesses the WB’s existing approach to statistical capacity measurement, and by exploring somerelevance options for the paper to explore The of its theenhancement. indicator has Specifically, more specifically beenseeks questioned by the rationale and WB’sactual use of statistical activities and national studies formodalities its inabilityoftothe reflect statistical capacity changes outputs to For measure statistical capacity, to determine thebeen problems that this over time. example, in Niger since 2004, there has the enactment poses, and somethe options as to how WB’s indicator could be of a new lawtoondevise statistics; establishment of the a National Council of Statisimproved to better capture actual statistical capacity. tics; the transformation of the former Directorate of Statistics and National Accounts (DSCN) into the new and more dynamic National Institute of The paperand hypothesizes that the of WB’s focus units on statistical activities into and Statistics; the transformation statistical in core ministries outputs to measure statistical capacity, to the detriment of aspects related fully-fledged Directorates. Other changes include improved coordination to statistical systems andagencies; data-producing agencies,ofresults in the indicator among data-producing the formulation the National Statistipoorly reflecting actual statistical capacity. To support this hypothesis, the cal Development Strategy based on the PARIS21 principles; the provision paper uses a two-pronged approach. First, the paper builds onstaff; the new of a substantially increased budget; better-trained and motivated and 5 understanding and approach to capacity and capacity enhancement. improved work of, conditions. Indeed, the development of the WB’s framework for measuring statistical capacity occurred when international efforts were underway to revamp 4 52 ACBF (2007). Fantometand Gafishi al. Watanabe (2008). (2008). 153 The African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November 165 168 Le2008 Journal statistique africain, numéro 7, novembre 2008 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko In theview approach of all the to capacity above changes, buildingitand is apparent align it that to the theparadigm capacity of of resultsNiger’s statistical based management. system hasThese been significantly efforts resulted strengthened. in the framework Gafishiknown et al. (2008) as the argue “capacity thatbuilding these changes results-chain have resulted approach.” in The improved paper data referscollection to this frameand enhanced work in itsindicator attempt to availability capture the to very somemeaning extent, as ofwell statistical as in the capacity. National Institute of Statistics enjoying a reputation as an emerging center of excellence. authors forcefully stress theincontrast the WB Second,However, the paperthe relies on recent developments terms ofwith the measureindicator scores, which haveatbarely changed overlevel. the period despite these ment of statistical capacity the international The formulation of improvements. Accordingly, theplace authors forwhen further investigation into the WB’s framework also took at acall time there was consider6 the for thistoapparent ablereasons momentum improveparadox. statistics, statistical capacity, and statistical capacity measurement in developing countries. In November 1999, this resulted in the launchthe ofstrengths the PARIS21 a global and To fully comprehend of theConsortium, WB’s indicator and theforum problems network aimed at promoting and facilitating statisticalframework capacity building that it poses, it may be useful to look at its underlying and the and better of statistics. ItThe alsoWB led to the establishment of the PARIS21 context of use its development. began to use the approach at a time Task Team, which ininitiative, May 2001 with devising to when the PARIS21 thewas firsttasked systematic attempt an at approach the internastatistical building measurement. For the purposes thisalready paper, tional levelcapacity to develop statistical capacity building indicators,ofhad the PARIS21 benchmarks against which the WB’s approduced its framework framework provides for measuring statistical capacity. This frameproachprovides to statistical capacity measurement be assessed. work for comprehensive reviews can of national statistical systems, requiring detailed country visits. As has been pointed out by various comThe paper’sthe reliance onwith the the capacity building results chainit is and on the mentators, problem PARIS21 approach is that expensive PARIS21 approaches resonates only with specific burden subject on matter and time-consuming. Moreover,not it imposes anthe additional the but also with the instrumental role that systems the WB being playedevaluated, in the development often-limited capacity of the statistical especially 7 of low-income these approaches. Indeed, did spearhead the promotion of in countries. It isnot alsoonly likely toitresult in idiosyncratic descripthe capacity building results chain approach difficult. but, in concert with the UN, tions that render international comparisons OECD, IMF, and the EC, the WB also co-founded the PARIS21 Consortium.WB Moreover, it was also part more of thelimited PARIS21 Task Team, and assumed The opted for a different, approach to mitigate these the PARIS21 Task secretariat. shortcomings. ThisTeam’s approach uses a 3smaller set of indicators (Annex 1), for which the data are publicly available, and which allow for the capture of differences in statistical among and over time. In this Using both the PARIS21capacity framework andcountries the capacity building results context, the WB’sthis success it hasuse cost-effectively ratchain approach, paperis undeniable, explores the asWB’s of statistical been activities ing forstatistical 144 countries around the world 2004.that and statistical outputs tocapacity measure capacity. It identifies thesince problems this poses, and provides insights into how the WB’s indicator could be The development the WB’s statistical capacity also occurred improved so as to of better reflectindicator statisticalofcapacity. at a time when the popularization of the results-based management approach lent support to the emergence of another new framework, known as the “capacity building results chain framework” (Figure 1). This promotes analysis of cause and effect; clarifying the relationships among long-term 3 The membership of the PARIS21 Task Team was as follows: the IMF, Chair (Ms. L. goals, mid-term outcomes, and immediate objectives, and the resources, Laliberté, Chairperson, Mr. T. Morrison, Mr. J. Bové and Mr. S. Khawaja), the World strategy, and actions required toSecretariat, achieve them a results-oriented Bank, Secretariat (Mrs. M. Harrison, Mr. M.inBelkindas, and Mr. G. manEele), ner. The capacity building framework also aims to identify the UN Statistics Division, UNSDresults (Mr. W.chain de Vries), the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, UN ECLAC (Ms. B. Carlson), and the UN Economic Commission of Europe, UNECE (Mr. J-E. Chapron), and AFRISTAT (Mr. Lamine 6 Diop). Gafishi TheetConsultants al. (2008: 13). to the PARIS21 Task Team were Mr. D. Allen, Mr. T. Holt and 7 Mr.ACBF J. van(2007). Tongeren. 154African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique statistique africain, africain, numéro numéro 7, 7, novembre novembre 2008 2008 The 166 Le Journal 169 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko davantage Figure 1:queCapacity les capacités Building à proprement in theparler.key Pourassumptions améliorer l’approche, and perle papier suggère l’affinement de la méthode d’agrégation formance des indicators indicateursfor deseach difResults-chain Framework férentes composantes des systèmes statistiques, desstage activités of the et de process; la production and to r impActS statistiques, et surtout la prise en compte du degré visualize d’utilisation the process des capacités in cone existantes qui est le chaînon manquant dans l’approche text, by considering de la Banquethemonexdiale, Sentre activités/production et capacités statistiques. ternal factors that might influence outcomes. u outcomeS Mots lclés : Indicateur de capacités statistiques, Renforcement des capacités, Utilisation des capacités, PARIS21, Approche du In renforcement such a framework, des capacités statist par la chaîne des résultats. tical capacity and statistical S outputS capacity enhancement are viewed as part of a chain going from statistical resources 1. iNtroductioN to activities, to outputs, to ActiVitieS (as statistical inThe World Bank (henceforth WB) has been outcomes rating countries around the come to influence world for their statistical capacity since 2004.dicators The WB’s indicator of stapolicymaking tistical capacity uses information publicly available to assess and threedevelopaspects, ment monitoring and evalnamely statistical practices, data collection activities, and statistics availr iNputS uation,tofor example) and ability.e Recently, the WB has indicated its intention improve its frameHUMAN RESOURCES; finally to impact (in terms work Sfor statistical capacity measurement by shifting toward a new apFINANCING; of poverty reduction and proach focusing on four dimensions: institutional framework, statistical o EQUIPMENT AND welfare2 improvement, for methodology, data sources, and data dissemination. u FACILITIES; instance). r SYSTEMS AND PRACTICES; c AND The objective of thisPROCESSES paper is to contribute to this improvement effort, noPARIS21 of the initiative tably eby proposing anPROCEDURES; analysis of the strengthsThe and weaknesses WB’s S approach to statistical ETC. followed this Its existing capacity measurement, and approach. by exploring stated objective to desome options for its enhancement. Specifically, the paper seekswas to explore demand-driven the rationale and modalities of the WB’s usevelop of statistical activitiesstatisand tical capacity indicators as tools to betoapplied to specific goals. The apoutputs to measure statistical capacity, determine the problems that this proach aimed to measure the statistical capacity to meet those could goals, be as poses, and to devise some options as to how the WB’s indicator 8 these would geared toward statistical results to meet users’ needs. improved to be better capture actual statistical capacity. { The paper hypothesizes that the results-chain WB’s focus on statistical and Hence, in the light of the capacity approach and activities the PARIS21 outputs to measure statistical to the detriment related framework, and in view of thecapacity, aforementioned variationsofinaspects the scores of to statistical systemsthe andWB’s data-producing agencies, in theThese indicator statistical capacity, approach poses someresults questions. inpoorlythe reflecting actual statistical capacity. To support this hypothesis, the clude following: paper uses a two-pronged approach. First, the paper builds on the new understanding of, and approach to capacity and capacity enhancement. • Canactualstatisticalcapacitybesovolatile,asillustratedbythecases Indeed, the development of the Guinea-Bissau, WB’s frameworkand for the measuring of Nigeria, Rwanda, Libya, Centralstatistical African capacity occurred when international efforts were underway to revamp Republic? 82 PARIS21 Fantom and Task Watanabe Team (2002a). (2008). 155 170 The African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique africain, numéro 7, novembre 2008 165 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko • theDoes approach the to WB’s capacity statistical building capacity and align indicator it to thecapture paradigm theofrelevant resultsbased dimensions management. of statistical These efforts capacity? resulted in the framework known as the • “capacity What–ifany–correctionsarerequiredfortheWB’sindicatortoreflect building results-chain approach.” The paper refers to this framework statistical in its attempt capacity tomore capture consistently? the very meaning of statistical capacity. The Second, nextthe sections paper relies attempt on to recent address developments these issues. in terms However, of the first measureit may be ment useful of statistical to definecapacity statisticalat capacity, the international and to look level. at The the implications formulation of this the WB’s definition framework for the also WB’stook approach. place at This a time is thewhen objective thereofwas theconsidernext section. able momentum to improve statistics, statistical capacity, and statistical capacity measurement in developing countries. In November 1999, this resulted in the launch of the PARIS21 Consortium, a global forum and networkcApAcity aimed at promoting facilitating statistical capacity building 3. VerSuS and performANce: and better use ofdoeS statistics. It also lediNdicAtor to the establishment of the PARIS21 WhAt the WB’S meASure? Task Team, which in May 2001 was tasked with devising an approach to statistical capacity building For given the purposes this paper, The concept of capacity hasmeasurement. frequently been differentofdefinitions, thedisparate PARIS21motivations framework provides benchmarks which the WB’s as and objectives have against led development actorsapto proach to capacity aspects measurement can beFor assessed. choose to statistical address different of capacity. the purpose of this paper, capacity is simply and generally viewed as the resources of a society Theachieve paper’ssocietal reliance on At thethe capacity results or chain andcapacity on the to goals. level ofbuilding an institution agency, PARIS21 approaches not only with the specific subject matter represents the resourcesresonates of that institution to deliver its mandate. but also with the instrumental role that the WB played in the development of these approaches. notsystems, only didthe it spearhead promotionthat of In the specific case ofIndeed, statistical experiencethe of countries the capacity building resultsstatistical chain approach in concert withstatistical the UN, have successfully enhanced capacitybut, shows clearly that 9 OECD, IMF, andrequires the EC, focusing the WB also the PARIS21 capacity building on aco-founded wide spectrum of factors.ConsorThese tium. Moreover, it was also part of the PARIS21 Team, and include human resources and infrastructure (suchTask as buildings andassumed power, 3 the PARIS21 Task among others), andTeam’s other secretariat. material resources. Resources also include dataproducing agency staff and human resources management practices, such as hiring andthefiring, promotion, rotation, and building career developUsing both PARIS21 framework and training, the capacity results ment. chain 10approach, this paper explores the WB’s use of statistical activities and outputs to measure statistical capacity. It identifies the problems that this poses,also andinclude providesfinancing insights and intoitshow the WB’s indicator be Resources characteristics – such ascould its level, improvedand so as to better reflect largely statistical capacity.the flexibility and indesources, stability – which determine pendence of the statistical system, as well as related processes and procedures that determine the efficiency of the use of funds. Resources should also include computing facilities, including the availability, maintenance, and updating of information technology infrastructure such as servers, 3 The membership of the PARIS21 Task Team was as follows: the IMF, Chair (Ms. L. communication network, and computers. Also falling under the rubric Laliberté, Chairperson, Mr. T. Morrison, Mr. J. Bové and Mr. S. Khawaja), the World “resources” are transportation communication systems Bank, Secretariat (Mrs. M. Harrison,and Secretariat, Mr. M. Belkindas, and equipment, Mr. G. Eele), the UN Statistics Division, UNSD (Mr. W. de Vries), the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, UN ECLAC (Ms. B. Carlson), and the UN Economic Commission of Europe, UNECE (Mr. J-E. Chapron), and AFRISTAT (Mr. Lamine 9 Diop). For example, The Consultants see Gafishi to the et al. PARIS21 (2008) and TaskKiregyera Team were (2006). Mr. D. Allen, Mr. T. Holt and 10 Mr.PARIS21 J. van Tongeren. Task Team (2002b). 156 African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique statistique africain, africain, numéro numéro 7, 7, novembre novembre 2008 2008 The 166 Le Journal 171 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko inclusive davantageofque operational les capacitéssupport, à proprement printing parler. equipment, Pour améliorer office supplies l’approche, and le 11 sundries, papier suggère and l’affinement other aspectsdeoflathe méthode office d’agrégation environment. des indicateurs des différentes composantes des systèmes statistiques, des activités et de la production statistiques, surtoutstatistical la prise en compte and du degré d’utilisationframework des capacités Last but notet least, practices the regulatory of existantes are quikey est resources le chaînonofmanquant dans l’approche de la processes Banque monstatistics a statistical system. Statistical and diale, entre activités/production capacités statistiques. procedures are resources as well,etto the extent that they determine access to information, preserve confidentiality of individual data, ensure adequate Mots clés : Indicateur capacités statistiques, Renforcement des capacités, coordination, planning,demonitoring and evaluation of statistical operaUtilisation des capacités, PARIS21, Approche du activities, renforcement capacités tions, guarantee the independence of statistical anddesensure the par la chaîne des résultats. accuracy, reliability, and accessibility of statistical data and metadata such as information on underlying concepts, definitions, classifications, methodology, data sources, accuracy, etc. 1. iNtroductioN All this serves to confirm that the dynamics of statistical capacity – that is, the in the (henceforth characteristics of statistical – are multifaceted. Thechanges World Bank WB) has been resources rating countries around the Statistical capacity enhancement increasing the number of world for their statistical capacitymay sinceconsist 2004.inThe WB’s indicator of stastaff and their skills and/or altering human resources management practistical capacity uses information publicly available to assess three aspects, tices so that a corepractices, contingent of collection highly trained staff can retainedavailand namely statistical data activities, andbestatistics maintained through training. changes that ability. Recently, the regular WB hasrecruitment indicated itsand intention toOther improve its framemay statisticalmeasurement capacity building include:toward a new apworkbeforconstrued statisticalascapacity by shifting proach focusing on four dimensions: institutional framework, statistical 2 methodology, data in sources, and data regulatory dissemination. • improvements the statistical framework, systems and practices, and processes and procedures; • Thetheprovisionandupgradingofinfrastructuresuchasbuildings,inforobjective of this paper is to contribute to this improvement effort, nomation technology resources; tably by proposing an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the WB’s • improvementsinothermaterialresourcessuchas existing approach to statistical capacity measurement,transportationand and by exploring communication equipment and other the to office ensome options for itssystems enhancement. Specifically, theaspects paper of seeks explore andmodalities of the WB’s use of statistical activities and thevironment; rationale and • theimprovementoffinancinganditscharacteristics. outputs to measure statistical capacity, to determine the problems that this poses, and to devise some options as to how the WB’s indicator could be In light oftothe capacity building results chain framework discussed earimproved better capture actual statistical capacity. lier, it appears that the WB’s indicator mostly captures statistical activities and that are outcomes of statistical resources rather that statistical The outputs paper hypothesizes that the WB’s focus on statistical activities and resources se. Forstatistical instance,capacity, the 10 to items determine the score of outputs toper measure the that detriment of aspects related statistical indicator clearly capture outputs. to statistical systemsavailability and data-producing agencies, resultsAs in for the statistical indicator activities, they areactual scattered in thecapacity. statistical data collection poorly reflecting statistical To practice support and this hypothesis, the clusters. They include population censuses, agricultural censuses, poverty paper uses a two-pronged approach. First, the paper builds on the new surveys, and health surveys. Theytoalso includeand UNESCO and understanding of, and approach capacity capacity reporting, enhancement. setting newdevelopment base for national the consumer price index, import Indeed,athe of theaccounts, WB’s framework for measuring statistical and export price indexes, and industrialefforts production capacity occurred when international were indexes. underway to revamp 11 2 PARIS21 Fantom and Task Watanabe Team (2002b). (2008). 157 172 The African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique africain, numéro 7, novembre 2008 165 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko In thefact, approach of thetototal capacity of 25building items that andthe align WB’s it toindicator the paradigm encompasses, of resultsas many based management. as 19 items (accounting These efforts forresulted nearly 77% in theofframework the overallknown score) as relate the to “capacity statistical building activities results-chain and outputs. approach.” Only sixThe items paper (accounting refers to this forframeabout 23% work of in the its attempt overall score) to capture relatethe to statistical very meaning capacity of statistical aspects. These capacity. are indicators of whether (or not) the UN considers the vital registration system coverage as complete; thedevelopments country has subscribed Special Second, the paper relieswhether on recent in terms oftothethemeasureData Standard; national and WHO/UNICEF estimates of ment Dissemination of statistical capacity at the international level. The formulation the WB’s national immunization coverage area consistent; finance framework also took place at time when government there was consideraccounts are consolidated; thestatistics, data used for external debt and reporting are able momentum to improve statistical capacity, statistical actual or measurement preliminary; and the latest edition of the Balance of 1999, Payments capacity in developing countries. In November this Manual uselaunch (see Annex This demonstrates thatathe WB’sforum indicator resulted isininthe of the1).PARIS21 Consortium, global and of statistical capacity is mostly and driven by statistical activities and outputs. network aimed at promoting facilitating statistical capacity building and better use of statistics. It also led to the establishment of the PARIS21 The Taskfact Team, thatwhich the WB’s in May indicator 2001iswas largely tasked driven withbydevising statistical anactivities approachand to outputs statisticaland capacity only marginally building measurement. by statistical For resources the purposes means that of this it mostly paper, captures the PARIS21 statistical framework performance providesrather benchmarks than statistical against which capacity. theSuch WB’sperapformance proach to statistical is specifically capacity captured measurement quantitatively, can be particularly assessed. in terms of frequency. As Annex 1 illustrates, the higher the frequency of statistical activities andreliance outputs,onthethe higher the score. As regards fewand items The paper’s capacity building results the chain on that the focus on actual capacity, they mostly reflect the statistical PARIS21 approaches resonates not only withthe theability specificofsubject matter system produce quality statistical outputs andplayed are at the coredevelopment of the Data but alsotowith the instrumental role that the WB in the Quality has been the developed by the of these Assessment approaches. Framework Indeed, not(DQAF) only didthat it spearhead promotion of IMF. the capacity building results chain approach but, in concert with the UN, OECD, IMF, and the EC, the WB also co-founded the PARIS21 ConsorThe tium.WB Moreover, indicator’s it was focus also on partperformance of the PARIS21 rather Task than Team, capacity and assumed poses a conceptual the PARIS21 problem. Task Team’s While secretariat. capacity 3and performance are related – in the sense that the latter is an outcome of the former – yet they are different, and performance indicators cannot be substituted capacity enhancement Using both the PARIS21 framework and thefor capacity building results indicators. As Mizrahi argues, the failure to distinguish betweenactivities the two chain approach, this paper explores the WB’s use of statistical can to inappropriate policy. According the author, performand lead outputs to measure statistical capacity. to It identifies theunlike problems that ance indicators, indicatorsinsights of capacity enhancement provide this poses, and provides into and howcapacity the WB’s indicator could be information sustainability by revealing information on the extent of improved so about as to better reflect statistical capacity. institutionalization or routinization of improvements to a system.12 This principle holds true not only for those cases where performance is reflected in quantitative terms; it is valid also in those cases where perform3 The membership of the PARIS21 Task Team was as follows: the IMF, Chair (Ms. L. ance is captured in qualitative terms. In this context, statistical capacity Laliberté, Chairperson, Mr. T. Morrison, Mr. J. Bové and Mr. S. Khawaja), the World measurement has approached in a Mr. different way toandmere statistiBank, Secretariat (Mrs.toM.beHarrison, Secretariat, M. Belkindas, Mr. G. Eele), cal quality measurement. As the Team forcefully argued,fora the UN Statistics Division, UNSD (Mr.PARIS21 W. de Vries),Task the UN Economic Commission Latin America and theentirely Caribbean, UN ECLAC (Ms. B. Carlson), andexternal the UN Economic statistical output financed and executed through sources Commission of Europe, UNECE (Mr. J-E. Chapron), and AFRISTAT (Mr. Lamine Diop). The Consultants to the PARIS21 Task Team were Mr. D. Allen, Mr. T. Holt and 12 Mr.Mizrahi J. van Tongeren. (2003: 5). 158 African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique statistique africain, africain, numéro numéro 7, 7, novembre novembre 2008 2008 The 166 Le Journal 173 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko may davantage be ofque high les quality, capacitésyet à proprement be a poor parler. measure Pour of améliorer statisticall’approche, capacity in le terms papier of suggère domestic l’affinement expertise de and la méthode sustainability. d’agrégation Accordingly, des indicateurs the PARIS21 des difTask férentes Team composantes emphasized des systèmes the needstatistiques, for a sound desstatistical activités et capacity de la production measurement statistiques, framework et surtout to take la prise account en compte of indicators du degré applicable d’utilisation to agencies des capacités (e.g. central existantesstatistical qui est leagencies, chaînon the manquant statistical dans units l’approche of central de labanks Banque andmonline 13 ministries) diale, entre that activités/production produce statistical et capacités outputs.statistiques. Mots clésways, : Indicateur de capacités Renforcement des capacités, In some the weakness of thestatistiques, WB’s indicator of statistical capacity Utilisation destocapacités, PARIS21, Approchethe du various renforcement capacités is partly due its method of aggregating items des it considers parbe la relevant chaîne desdimensions résultats. of statistical capacity. Indeed, minimizing the to relative weights of statistical activities and outputs would improve the indicator. The most straightforward and radical option would be to remove 1. items iNtroductioN the related to activities and outputs from the indicator (or to apply a zero weight to them), and to keep only the system- and agency-related aspects. Such an option is particularly since the WB’s approach, by The World Bank (henceforth WB) appealing has been rating countries around the indiscriminately using inputs and since outputs to measure statistical capacity, world for their statistical capacity 2004. The WB’s indicator of staseems double-count a number publicly of aspectsavailable and to mix up flows tisticaltocapacity uses information to assess three(periodic aspects, activities and outputs) and stocks (improvements that and occurstatistics once and for namely statistical practices, data collection activities, availall) or performanceability. Recently, the and WBcapacity-related has indicated itsaspects. intention to improve its framework for statistical capacity measurement by shifting toward a new approach focusing four dimensions: institutional framework, indicators statistical However, despite on its attraction, the option of totally eliminating 2 methodology, dataoutputs sources,from and the dataoverall dissemination. of activities and WB indicator raises a serious problem, which relates to the complexity of the relationship between inputs and outputs in statistical relationship is more The objective of this paper is toprocesses. contributeIndeed, to this this improvement effort, nocomplex than suggested by theofearlier discussed building tably by proposing an analysis the strengths andcapacity weaknesses of theresults WB’s chain framework. existing approach to statistical capacity measurement, and by exploring some options for its enhancement. Specifically, the paper seeks to explore Statistical activities and outputs be regarded simply asactivities an outcome the rationale and modalities of cannot the WB’s use of statistical and of statistical resources, as some may also serve as inputs for downstream outputs to measure statistical capacity, to determine the problems that this activities outputs. For options instance,as atonumber resources that form poses, andand to devise some how theofWB’s indicator couldthe be capacity of a statistical system are required to carry out household improvedbase to better capture actual statistical capacity. surveys to obtain survey data. These data are necessary to undertake further produce statistical such a consumer priceand inThe work paper to hypothesizes that theindicators, WB’s focus on as statistical activities dex, inequality index, and employment amongofothers. such outputs to measure statistical capacity, tostatistics, the detriment aspectsInrelated atoprocess, household surveys appear to beagencies, the first-level activity, the statistical systems and data-producing results in the while indicator calculation of theactual indicators forms the second-level Between the poorly reflecting statistical capacity. To supportactivity. this hypothesis, two thea survey data as approach. a first-levelFirst, output. The statistical paperareuses two-pronged the paper builds onindicators the new constitute second-level understanding of, and outputs. approach to capacity and capacity enhancement. Indeed, the development of the WB’s framework for measuring statistical capacity occurred when international efforts were underway to revamp 13 2 PARIS21 Fantom and Task Watanabe Team (2002a: (2008). 7). 159 174 The African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique africain, numéro 7, novembre 2008 165 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko Therefore the approach in actual to capacity statistical building processes, and align a number it to of the“intermediate” paradigm of resultsactivities based and management. products canThese be viewed effortsasresulted both outputs in theand framework inputs, depending known as the on the “capacity stage building considered. results-chain The PARIS21 approach.” Task Team The paper forcefully refersacknowledged to this framethe workcomplexity in its attempt of this to relationship capture the very between meaning inputs of and statistical outputs capacity. in statistical processes. Not only did they view survey data as inputs for the production of final statistical outputs. They also recognized that statistical activiSecond, the paper relies on recent developments in terms of the measureties to the maintenance and development basic resources of mentcontribute of statistical capacity at the international level. of The formulation statistical suchalso as skills, theyatallow forwhen such skills beconsidercontinuthe WB’s systems framework took as place a time there to was ously in use.14 Thus, able momentum to improve statistical capacity, and statistical not only statistics, can statistical activities and outputs serve as capacity measurement developingactivities countries. November 1999, thisa resources or inputs for in downstream andInoutputs; there is also resulted in loop, the launch of statistical the PARIS21 Consortium, a global forum and retroactive whereby activities and outputs impact on basic network aimed at promoting facilitating capacity building statistical capacity. Such a loopand makes it even statistical more difficult to isolate reand better useresults, of statistics. It alsofrom led tooutputs the establishment the PARIS21 sources from and inputs in statisticalofprocesses. Task Team, which in May 2001 was tasked with devising an approach to statisticalcompelling capacity building measurement. Foractivities the purposes of this paper, Another reason to retain statistical and outputs in the the PARIS21 framework the WB’sbasic apWB’s indicator is becauseprovides they arebenchmarks needed as against proxies which for statistical proach to statistical capacity measurement can to be quantify. assessed. The PARIS21 resources, which would otherwise be difficult Task Team suggests, for example, that crude measures of volume activities The paper’s relianceason the capacity building results chain and on the could be considered a proxy for the mass of general statistical expertise of 15 approaches resonates notwords, only with the specific subject matter aPARIS21 data-producing agency. In other although some statistical activibut also with instrumental role that theof WB played in the development ties are by nothe means relevant dimensions statistical capacity, they may of these approaches. Indeed, notrelationship only did it spearhead the promotion of serve as proxies. In light of the between statistical resources the capacity results chainthe approach but,latter in concert the UN, and statisticalbuilding activities/outputs, use of the may bewith appropriate, OECD, IMF, the EC, the WB also co-founded PARIS21 Consorespecially as a and number of statistical aspects for whichthe comparable data extium. Moreover, itrelate was also part of theactivities PARIS21 Task Team, more and assumed ist internationally to statistical and outputs, than to the PARIS21 Taskand Team’s secretariat.3 agencies. statistical systems data-producing In conclusion, may be useful to highlight the Using both theit PARIS21 framework and the serious capacitychallenge buildingthat results use statistical this activities outputs WB approach. chainof approach, paperand explores therepresents WB’s use to of the statistical activities As section, relying capacity. on statistical activities outputsthat to andargued outputsintothis measure statistical It identifies theand problems measure statistical capacity causesinto the how indicator to capture performance this poses, and provides insights the WB’s indicator could be rather thansocapacity. Yet,reflect statistical activities and outputs need to be used improved as to better statistical capacity. as proxies of genuine dimensions of statistical capacity that would otherwise not be accounted for. The greater the weight of such dimensions in statistical capacity, the greater the weight that needs to be given to statistical activities and outputs, hence the greater the distortion in the overall 3 The membership of the PARIS21 Task Team was as follows: the IMF, Chair (Ms. L. indicator. The next section argues that this problem may be mitigated by, Laliberté, Chairperson, Mr. T. Morrison, Mr. J. Bové and Mr. S. Khawaja), the World first, a better understanding of the relationship between statistical Bank, Secretariat (Mrs. M. Harrison, Secretariat, Mr. M. Belkindas, and Mr. capacity G. Eele), the UN Statistics Division, UNSD (Mr. W. de Vries), the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, UN ECLAC (Ms. B. Carlson), and the UN Economic Commission of Europe, UNECE (Mr. J-E. Chapron), and AFRISTAT (Mr. Lamine 14 Diop). PARIS21 The Consultants Task Team (2002b). to the PARIS21 Task Team were Mr. D. Allen, Mr. T. Holt and 15 Mr.PARIS21 J. van Tongeren. Task Team (2002b: 12). 160African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique statistique africain, africain, numéro numéro 7, 7, novembre novembre 2008 2008 The 166 Le Journal 175 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko and davantage statistical que activities les capacités and, à proprement second, by adequately parler. Pouraccounting améliorer l’approche, for capacity le utilization. papier suggère l’affinement de la méthode d’agrégation des indicateurs des différentes composantes des systèmes statistiques, des activités et de la production statistiques, et surtout la prise en compte du degré d’utilisation des capacités existantes qui est lecApAcity chaînon manquant dans l’approche la Banque mon4. tAkiNg utilizAtioN iNtode AccouNt diale, entre activités/production et capacités statistiques. In recent years, the development community has increasingly recognized Motsinclés : Indicateur de capacités statistiques, Renforcement desascapacités, that most African countries, capacity is often underutilized a result Utilisation des capacités, PARIS21, Approche du renforcement deshave capacités of the misallocation of available skills and talents. Some authors even par la chaîne résultats. of circumstances, capacity is prevented from befound that, indesa number ing put to work.16 By and large, the literature points to incentives provided by the prevailing public sector management system and governance factors 1. explain iNtroductioN to the underutilization of capacity. As Obadan argues, when talents are misallocated, and recruitment and promotions based on personal The World Bank (henceforth WB) rating countries around the connections and loyalties rather thanhasonbeen merit, existing capacity is likely 17 world for their statistical capacity since 2004. The WB’s indicator of stato be underutilized. tistical capacity uses information publicly available to assess three aspects, namely statistical practices, collection and availCapacity utilization may varydata across time andactivities, space, and bestatistics understood in ability. Recently, the WB hasterms. indicated its intention to improve framequantitative and qualitative A society may utilize differentits amounts work for statistical capacity measurement by shifting toward a newvariapof its capacity at different times, just as different societies may utilize proach focusing on four dimensions: institutional framework, statistical able amounts of their capacities at a given time. On the other hand, a soci2 methodology, sources, and data ety may utilizedata the same amount of itsdissemination. capacity but with different efficiency at different times; whereas different societies may utilize the same amount of capacity butpaper with is different efficiency at aimprovement given time. Thus, Thetheir objective of this to contribute to this effort, not noonly relationship between statistical system’s activities/outputs and tably isbythe proposing an analysis ofathe strengths and weaknesses of the WB’s its capacity very complex, as earlier discussed, but it is byand no means linear. existing approach to statistical capacity measurement, by exploring This by manySpecifically, factors, which different rates somerelationship options for isitsaffected enhancement. the result paper in seeks to explore of utilization in different circumstances. thecapacity rationale and modalities of the WB’s use of statistical activities and outputs to measure statistical capacity, to determine the problems that this There a growing to consider thatthe a society’s capacity to utilize poses, is and to deviseconsensus some options as to how WB’s indicator could be effectively and efficiently capacity is a keycapacity. aspect of its capacity per se, improved to better captureitsactual statistical and that the effort to increase the rate of utilization of its capacity should 18 be as capacity that enhancement its own Theconsidered paper hypothesizes the WB’s infocus on right. statistical activities and This means that outputs to measure could statistical capacity, toasthe detriment of aspects capacity utilization be considered a capacity resource. Yet, related capacto statistical and data-producing resultsresides in theinindicator ity utilizationsystems is a particular resource. Thisagencies, particularity the fact poorly reflecting actual statistical capacity. To support this hypothesis, the that in specific circumstances, capacity utilization and overall capacity may paper uses a two-pronged approach. First, the paper builds on the new evolve independently, or even in opposition. understanding of, and approach to capacity and capacity enhancement. Indeed, the development of the WB’s framework for measuring statistical capacity occurred when international efforts were underway to revamp 16 17 18 2 Obadan (2007). Ibid. Obadan Fantom and (2005). Watanabe (2008). 161 176 The African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique africain, numéro 7, novembre 2008 165 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko To the illustrate, approach let to C, capacity A, andbuilding U be statistical and align capacity, it to thestatistical paradigm activity, of resultsand the based rate management. of utilizationThese of theefforts existing resulted statistical in thecapacity framework C inknown periodast, the respectively. “capacity building One then results-chain can represent approach.” the relationship The paper among refersthese to this variables frameas work follows: in its attempt to capture the very meaning of statistical capacity. Second, the paper relies on recent At = αC developments U (1) in terms of the measuret t ment of statistical capacity at the international level. The formulation of thebeing WB’sa framework alsocaptures took place a time“productivity” when there was α constant that the at average of considerstatistical able momentum to (1) improve statistical capacity, andt, statistical resources. Equation simplystatistics, means that at any point of time capacityismeasurement in developing November 1999,Takthis activity undertaken using all or part countries. of existing In statistical resources. resulted in the launch of the ing the logarithm and then thePARIS21 differenceConsortium, of equation a(1)global yields:forum and network aimed at promoting and facilitating statistical capacity building and better use of statistics. ∆A It also led+to∆U the establishment of the PARIS21 = ∆C (2) Task Team, which in May 2001 was tasked with devising an approach to statistical capacity the building measurement. purposes of this paper, with ∆ indicating percentage change inFor thethe amount of the concerned the PARIS21 framework provides benchmarks whichasthe WB’s apvariable during the period. Equation (2) can beagainst rearranged follows: proach to statistical capacity measurement can be assessed. ∆C = ∆A – ∆U (3) The paper’s reliance on the capacity building results chain and on the PARIS21 approaches not only withamount the specific subjectresourcmatter As Equation (3) shows,resonates a given change in the of statistical butisalso with role thatthe thechange WB played in the development es equal to the theinstrumental difference between in statistical activity and of these approaches. Indeed, notamount only did spearhead the promotion of the change in utilization of this of itstatistical capacity, all changes the capacity chainpoints. approach but,Equation in concert the UN, expressed in building terms of results percentage Thus, (3)with implies that OECD, IMF, and the statistical EC, the WB also co-founded the only PARIS21 after a period of low activity, during which part Consorof existtium. Moreover, it was also of the PARIS21 Task Team, and assumed ing statistical resources werepart in effective use, additional statistical activity 3 the PARIS21 Task Team’s secretariat. and outputs could be taken up by mobilizing latent capacity rather than by acquiring fresh capacity. In such a situation, the increase in statistical activity wouldthe be PARIS21 absorbed by the increase of utilization existUsing both framework andin the rate capacity buildingofresults ing capacity without impact on the massofofstatistical resourcesactivities that the chain approach, this any paper explores theoverall WB’s use statistical system has at its disposal.capacity. It identifies the problems that and outputs to measure statistical this poses, and provides insights into how the WB’s indicator could be Equation that if statistical during a period, improved (3) so asalso to means better reflect capacity.the change in the rate of capacity utilization were higher than the change in the amount of statistical activities undertaken in that period, then statistical capacity would have declined, not increased, during that period, even if the change in statistical activity were positive. In fact, a given statistical activity growth rate 3 The membership of the PARIS21 Task Team was as follows: the IMF, Chair (Ms. L. implies a commensurate change in statistical capacity only if the rate of Laliberté, Chairperson, Mr. T. Morrison, Mr. J. Bové and Mr. S. Khawaja), the World capacity utilization constant during period. This is what the Bank, Secretariat (Mrs. remains M. Harrison, Secretariat, Mr.that M. Belkindas, and Mr. G. Eele), WB implicitly assumes,UNSD causing to UN relyEconomic on a highly restrictive the UN Statistics Division, (Mr.its W.approach de Vries), the Commission for Latinlargely Americaunrealistic and the Caribbean, UN ECLAC (Ms. B. Carlson), and the UN Economic and assumption. Commission of Europe, UNECE (Mr. J-E. Chapron), and AFRISTAT (Mr. Lamine Diop). The Consultants to the PARIS21 Task Team were Mr. D. Allen, Mr. T. Holt and Mr. J. van Tongeren. 162African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique statistique africain, africain, numéro numéro 7, 7, novembre novembre 2008 2008 The 166 Le Journal 177 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko Indeed, davantage this quecondition les capacités is likely à proprement to be metparler. in two Pour particular améliorer circumstances, l’approche, le namely papier suggère situations l’affinement where existing de la méthode capacity d’agrégation is in full use des and indicateurs where there des difis no férentes possibility composantes to further des systèmes increasestatistiques, it, or where deslatent activités capacity et de la exists production but no actionable statistiques, policy et surtout is available la prise en or possible compte dutodegré mobilize d’utilisation such unused des capacités capacity. existantes In such quisituations, est le chaînon a given manquant percentage dans point l’approche increasedeinlathe Banque amount monof statistical diale, entreactivities activités/production undertakenetwould capacités mean statistiques. a commensurate increase in statistical capacity, since one would have, for example, to hire and train new equip them with newstatistiques, equipment Renforcement to take up these Motsstaff, clés and : Indicateur de capacités desadditional capacités, activities. capacity were Approche not fully du used, and actionable policy UtilisationIfdesexisting capacités, PARIS21, renforcement des capacités available or possible to mobilize (at least partially) the latent capacity, then par la chaîne des résultats. additional activity would translate into the use of all or part of the unused capacity, resulting in the new tasks being taken up without a commensurate in statistical capacity. 1. increase iNtroductioN While this suggests that latentWB) capacity allows for the absorption of the The World Bank (henceforth has been rating countries around impact of their changes in statistical activity/outputs on statistical capacity, is world for statistical capacity since 2004. The WB’s indicator of it stanoteworthy thatuses in some circumstances could amplify such an impact. tistical capacity information publiclyit available to assess three aspects, For instance, if thepractices, volume ofdata statistical activities and outputs increases at namely statistical collection activities, and statistics availaability. given Recently, rate during period, whileits forintention some reason the rateits of framecapacthea given WB has indicated to improve ity utilization is decreasing the same period, then toward statistical capacity work for statistical capacityover measurement by shifting a new apwould increased at adimensions: rate higher than that of statistical activity and proach have focusing on four institutional framework, statistical outputs. methodology, data sources, and data dissemination.2 Equation (3) suggests that the statistical capacity The objective of this paper is torelationship contribute between to this improvement effort, and nostatistical activities/outputs spills overstrengths a third variable, that is, capacity utitably by proposing an analysis of the and weaknesses of the WB’s lization. aboveto model suggests that there is an identity linking changes existing The approach statistical capacity measurement, and by exploring in theoptions level of for statistical capacity in any given country withseeks changes in the some its enhancement. Specifically, the paper to explore level of statistical andofoutputs, anduse changes in statistical capacity the rationale andactivities modalities the WB’s of statistical activities and utilization. The relationship these three variables may be compared outputs to measure statisticalamong capacity, to determine the problems that this to that and among the angles a triangle, as the among them poses, to devise someofoptions as to howinterdependency the WB’s indicator could be means thattotobetter derivecapture reliably the variation any of the three variables, a improved actual statisticalincapacity. sufficient condition is to know variations in the other two variables. The paper hypothesizes that the WB’s focus on statistical activities and Thus, “Capacity–Activity–Capacity Triangle” model iloutputsthe to measure statistical capacity, to Utilization the detriment of aspects related lustrates a relationship between statisticalagencies, capacity results and statistical activity/ to statistical systems and data-producing in the indicator outputs that is more sophisticated than theToone assumed the WB, and poorly reflecting actual statistical capacity. support thisby hypothesis, the which implies a mechanisticapproach. and univocal of changes paper uses a two-pronged First,impact the paper builds in onstatistical the new activities/outputs The and model ratherenhancement. suggests that understanding of, on andstatistical approachcapacity. to capacity capacity taking utilizationofinto every timefor statistical activities and Indeed,capacity the development theaccount WB’s framework measuring statistical outputs used towhen measure statistical capacity is crucial if the WB’s indicapacity are occurred international efforts were underway to revamp cator is to reliably capture actual statistical capacity. One interesting question that this conclusion raises is how, as an improvement to the WB’s 2 Fantom and Watanabe (2008). 163 178 The African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique africain, numéro 7, novembre 2008 165 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko approach the approach to statistical to capacity capacity building measurement, and align itaccounting to the paradigm for capacity of resultsutilization based management. would compare Thesewith efforts the resulted earlier-mentioned in the framework need toknown improve as the on indicator “capacity building aggregation. results-chain approach.” The paper refers to this framework in its attempt to capture the very meaning of statistical capacity. One consequence of an improved method of score aggregation in the WB’s approach Second, the would paperberelies a reduction on recentindevelopments the distortionincreated terms of by the themeasureoveremphasis ment of onstatistical statisticalcapacity activitiesatand theoutputs international to the detriment level. The of formulation statistical caof pacity. the WB’s Anframework improved aggregation also took place method at awould time when mean there the WB’s was approach considergiving able momentum greater weight to improve to statistical statistics, resources statistical thancapacity, to statistical and statistical activities and capacity outputs, measurement leading toina reduction developingincountries. the distortion In November and to less1999, volatility this in resulted the overall in thescore launch of statistical of the PARIS21 capacity.Consortium, Furthermore,aitglobal wouldforum mean and less pressure network on aimed countries at promoting to continue and to facilitating carry outstatistical statisticalcapacity activitiesbuilding and to produce and betterstatistical use of statistics. outputs Itatalso regular led tointervals the establishment in order toofmaintain the PARIS21 high scores, Task Team, as is the which caseinunder May the 2001 current was tasked measurement with devising system. an approach to statistical capacity building measurement. For the purposes of this paper, the PARIS21 framework provides benchmarks against whichsolely the WB’s However, none of these problems would totally disappear as a apreproach to statistical measurement can be assessed. sult of an improvedcapacity aggregation method. Indeed, these problems cannot disappear as long as statistical activities and outputs have to be used as proxies The paper’s for those reliance aspects onofthe statistical capacitycapacity building thatresults wouldchain not beand accounted on the for PARIS21 otherwise. approaches In circumstances resonates not where only such with aspects the specific represent subject a significant matter share but also of with statistical the instrumental capacity, therole problem that the of WB volatility played would in thebedevelopment particularly acute, of thesesince approaches. scores ofIndeed, statistical notactivities only didand it spearhead outputs would the promotion have to be of given the capacity relatively building greaterresults weightchain to account approach for but, theseinaspects concertadequately. with the UN, OECD, IMF, and the EC, the WB also co-founded the PARIS21 Consortium. Moreover, it was also part of the PARIS21 Taskwould Team,likely and assumed In contrast, taking capacity utilization into account improve 3 PARIS21 Task Team’s secretariat. the WB’s measurement system considerably. This is borne out by the perspective that the “Capacity–Activity–Capacity Utilization Triangle” model offers address the problem of volatility. thebuilding apparentresults volaUsing to both the PARIS21 framework andSpecifically, the capacity tility statisticalthis capacity, it results WB’s current approach, chainofapproach, paper asexplores thefrom WB’stheuse of statistical activities is largely a consequence of the neglect of capacity utilization, since that this and outputs to measure statistical capacity. It identifies the problems approach that variations statistical and outputs imply this poses,assumes and provides insights in into how theactivity WB’s indicator could be commensurate in statistical capacity. improved so as variations to better reflect statistical capacity. A proportion of the changes in statistical activities may simply be absorbed by changes in statistical capacity utilization, implying that variations in statistical activity/outputs do not mean commensurate variations in statis3 The membership of the PARIS21 Task Team was as follows: the IMF, Chair (Ms. L. tical capacity. By the same token, countries would not have to continue to Laliberté, Chairperson, Mr. T. Morrison, Mr. J. Bové and Mr. S. Khawaja), the World carry out statistical andSecretariat, to produce outputs at G. regular Bank, Secretariat (Mrs. activities M. Harrison, Mr. statistical M. Belkindas, and Mr. Eele), intervals to maintain scores, since part the or the these activithe UN Statistics Division,high UNSD (Mr. W. de Vries), UN totality EconomicofCommission for Latinand America and the Caribbean, UN ECLAC (Ms. existing B. Carlson), and the UN Economic ties outputs could be undertaken using capacity. Commission of Europe, UNECE (Mr. J-E. Chapron), and AFRISTAT (Mr. Lamine Diop). The Consultants to the PARIS21 Task Team were Mr. D. Allen, Mr. T. Holt and Mr. J. van Tongeren. 164African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique statistique africain, africain, numéro numéro 7, 7, novembre novembre 2008 2008 The 166 Le Journal 179 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko Thus, davantage the que “Capacity–Activity–Capacity les capacités à proprement parler. Utilization Pour améliorer Triangle”l’approche, model prole vides papiera suggère plausible l’affinement explanation de for la méthode the abnormally d’agrégation highdes volatility indicateurs of statistical des difcapacity férentes composantes as measureddesbysystèmes the WB’s statistiques, indicator.desFurthermore, activités et deitlaallows production for a more statistiques, accurate et surtout envisioning la prise of en thecompte relationship du degré between d’utilisation statistical des capacités capacity and existantes statistical qui est activities le chaînon andmanquant outputs. In dans thisl’approche model, capacity de la Banque utilization monis diale, likeentre a filter activités/production placed between et statistical capacitéscapacity statistiques. and statistical activities/ outputs to separate those variations in statistical activities/outputs that are associated changesdeincapacités latent capacity, from those changes that are Mots clés :with Indicateur statistiques, Renforcement des capacités, genuinely withPARIS21, variationsApproche in actual du statistical capacity. Utilisationassociated des capacités, renforcement des capacités par la chaîne des résultats. Hence, whereas the WB’s indicator wrongly attributes the bulk of statistical activities and output variations to the change in statistical capacity systematically, the “Capacity–Activity–Capacity Utilization Triangle” model 1. iNtroductioN makes up for this weakness. The model makes it clear that capacity utilization the missing link in the WB’s approach to statistical capacity measThe is World Bank (henceforth WB) has been rating countries around the urement, statistical capacity and2004. statistical and outputs. world for between their statistical capacity since The activities WB’s indicator of statistical capacity uses information publicly available to assess three aspects, namely statistical practices, data collection activities, and statistics avail5. ability. coNcluSioN Recently, the WB has indicated its intention to improve its framework for statistical capacity measurement by shifting toward a new approach focusingofon dimensions: institutional framework, statistical The objectives thisfour paper were to explore the rationale and modalities methodology, data and data dissemination. of the WB’s use of sources, statistical activities and outputs2 to measure statistical capacity, to identify the problems that this poses, and to devise some options on how of thethis WB’s indicator could betoimproved so as to better The objective paper is to contribute this improvement effort,capnoture statistical Tothe address these issues, the paper referred tablyactual by proposing an capacity. analysis of strengths and weaknesses of the WB’s to the PARIS21 andcapacity the capacity building and results apexisting approachframework to statistical measurement, by chain exploring proach. Choosing to enhancement. use these frameworks was particularly apposite, given some options for its Specifically, the paper seeks to explore the paper’s subject matter andof thethe central the WB played in their rationale and modalities WB’srole usethat of statistical activities and emergence and promotion. outputs to measure statistical capacity, to determine the problems that this poses, and to devise some options as to how the WB’s indicator could be The paper to identified two major shortcomings in the WB’s approach, which improved better capture actual statistical capacity. have resulted in its failure to adequately capture statistical capacity. These are its overreliance on statistical activities andon outputs and (ii) its neglect The(i)paper hypothesizes that the WB’s focus statistical activities and of statistical capacitystatistical utilization. These to compel a countryoftoaspects carry out staoutputs to measure capacity, the detriment related tistical activities at regular intervals in order to maintain they to statistical systems and data-producing agencies, resultsa high in thescore; indicator also explain why statistical capacity, as measured by the this WB’shypothesis, indicator, appoorly reflecting actual statistical capacity. To support the pears be highly volatile. The interactions these two on factors papertouses a two-pronged approach. First,between the paper builds the tend new to aggravate theof, bias of approach the WB’s indicator: greater the reliance of the understanding and to capacitythe and capacity enhancement. indicator ondevelopment statistical activities and outputs, the greater the impact of its Indeed, the of the WB’s framework for measuring statistical neglect capacity when utilization. Conversely, if the WB’s approach capacityofoccurred international efforts were underway toproperly revamp took capacity utilization into account, then the impact of its emphasis on statistical activities and outputs would be moderated. 2 Fantom and Watanabe (2008). The African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November 165 180 Le2008 Journal statistique africain, numéro 7, novembre 2008 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko In thethis approach paper, an to capacity effort hasbuilding been made andtoalign identify it to options the paradigm for an of improved resultsapproach. based management. It was argued These that efforts suchresulted an approach in theshould framework be consistent known aswith the the “capacity PARIS21 building framework results-chain and theapproach.” capacity building The paper results referschain to this approach frameas work much in its as attempt possible,towhile capture notthe conflicting very meaning with cost-effectiveness of statistical capacity. and international comparability. The latter two factors were identified as the bedrock of the WBrelies indicator’s success to date, ininspite highlighted Second, the paper on recent developments termsofofitsthe measureweaknesses. ment of statistical capacity at the international level. The formulation of the WB’s framework also took place at a time when there was considerAlthough able momentum removing to activityimprove and statistics, output-related statistical items capacity, fromand thestatistical WB indicator capacitymight measurement initially appear in developing to be the countries. most appropriate In November solution 1999, to this the problem, resulted inthis theoption launchhasofbeen the PARIS21 rejected forConsortium, a number ofareasons. global forum One isand the difficulty network aimed in clearly at promoting distinguishing andbetween facilitating inputs statistical and outputs capacity in statistical building processes. and better Indeed, use of statistics. not onlyItdo also some led activities to the establishment and outputsofserve the PARIS21 as inputs for Taskdownstream Team, which activities in May and 2001outputs, was tasked but with theredevising also exists an aapproach retroactive to loop statistical whereby capacity downstream buildingactivities measurement. and outputs For the in purposes turn affect ofbasic this paper, statistical the PARIS21 capacity. framework Moreover, provides the data benchmarks available to measure against which statistical the WB’s capacity apin proach a cost-effective to statisticalmanner capacityand measurement to allow for caninternational be assessed. comparability, mostly relate to statistical activities and outputs, and only marginally to actual statistical capacity. The paper’s reliance on the capacity building results chain and on the PARIS21 approaches resonates not only with the specific subject matter Against but also with such the a background, instrumentalitrole wasthat argued the WB thatplayed improvements in the development in the aggregation of these approaches. of various items Indeed, in not the only WB’sdid indicator it spearhead methodology the promotion might be of athe better capacity option building for anresults improved chain measurement approach but, system. in concert Also, with the paper the UN, argued OECD, thatIMF, when and using the EC, scores theofWB statistical also co-founded activity and theoutputs PARIS21 to Consormeasure statistical tium. Moreover, capacity, it was taking alsodue part account of the PARIS21 of statistical Task Team, capacity andutilization assumed would the PARIS21 be helpful. Task Team’s secretariat.3 These wouldframework have differing however. An improved Using improvements both the PARIS21 andimpacts, the capacity building results aggregation method thethe distortion caused by the use of the chain approach, thiswould paper reduce explores WB’s use of statistical activities volume of statistical activities andcapacity. outputsIttoidentifies measurethe statistical capacand outputs to measure statistical problems that ity. into insights account into statistical this However, poses, andtaking provides how capacity the WB’sutilization indicator would could albe low differentiation in statistical activities and outputs between, on the one improved so as to better reflect statistical capacity. hand, those associated with changes in actual statistical capacity and, on the other, those likely to be absorbed by changes in mere capacity utilization. It is therefore recommended that the WB should work on improving the aggregation method, and more importantly, take into account capacity 3 The membership of the PARIS21 Task Team was as follows: the IMF, Chair (Ms. L. utilization in its approach, as the missing link between statistical activities Laliberté, Chairperson, Mr. T. Morrison, Mr. J. Bové and Mr. S. Khawaja), the World and outputs and statistical capacity. Bank, Secretariat (Mrs. M. Harrison, Secretariat, Mr. M. Belkindas, and Mr. G. Eele), the UN Statistics Division, UNSD (Mr. W. de Vries), the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, UN ECLAC (Ms. B. Carlson), and the UN Economic Commission of Europe, UNECE (Mr. J-E. Chapron), and AFRISTAT (Mr. Lamine Diop). The Consultants to the PARIS21 Task Team were Mr. D. Allen, Mr. T. Holt and Mr. J. van Tongeren. 166African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique statistique africain, africain, numéro numéro 7, 7, novembre novembre 2008 2008 The 166 Le Journal 181 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko refereNceS davantage que les capacités à proprement parler. Pour améliorer l’approche, le papier suggère l’affinement de la méthode d’agrégation des indicateurs des différentes(2007), composantes des systèmes statistiques, des activités et de laand production ACBF Towards Reforming National Statistical Agencies Systems: statistiques, et surtout la Countries prise en compte du degréNational d’utilisation des capacités A Survey of Best-Practice with Effective Statistical Systems existantes qui est Best-Practice le chaînon manquant dansBPS l’approche de la Banque in Africa, ACBF Study Series 01/2007. Harare: ThemonAfdiale, Capacity entre activités/production et capacités statistiques. rican Building Foundation. Mots clésN.: Indicateur de capacités statistiques, Renforcement capacités, Fantom, and N. Watanabe (2008), “Improving the WorlddesBank’s DaUtilisation des capacités, PARIS21, Approche du renforcement des 2, capacités tabase of Statistical Capacity,” African Statistical Newsletter, vol. no. 3, par la chaîne des résultats. pp. 21-22. Gafishi, P., I. MacAuslan, and C. Spanneut (2008), Evaluation de l’Appui 1. Renforcement iNtroductioN au des Capacités Statistiques. Etude de Cas du Niger. Mimeo. Niamey, Niger: Institut National de Statistique (INS). The World Bank (henceforth WB) has been rating countries around the world for their statistical capacity since 2004. The WB’s indicator staKiregyera, B. (2006), Strengthening National Statistical Systems inofSubtistical capacity uses information publicly available to assessACBF three Lessons aspects, Saharan Africa –Some Lessons from Ugandan Experience. namelyHarare. statistical practices, data collection activities, and statistics availNote, ability. Recently, the WB has indicated its intention to improve its framework for E. statistical by shiftingReview towardof athenew apMizrahi, (2003), capacity Capacity measurement Enhancement Indicators: Literaproach focusing four dimensions: institutional framework, statistical ture. World Bankon Institute Evaluation Studies No. EG03-72. Washington, methodology, data sources, and data dissemination.2 DC: The World Bank Institute. Obadan, M. (2005), “Challenges in the Building Public Service CapacThe objective of this paper is to contribute to this of improvement effort, noity in by Africa,” ACBF Paper No. 5. Harare: ACBF. of the WB’s tably proposing anWorking analysis of the strengths and weaknesses existing approach to statistical capacity measurement, and by exploring Obadan, M. (2007), “Capacity Utilization, Retention, andseeks the Use of Afsome options for its enhancement. Specifically, the paper to explore rican Diasporan Challenges the rationale andCommunities modalities of as theDevelopment WB’s use of Actors: statistical activities and Opportunities.” Paper presented at thetoSecond Forum Capacitythat Buildoutputs to measure statistical capacity, determine theon problems this ing, Maputo 1-3 August. poses, and to(Mozambique), devise some options as to how the WB’s indicator could be improved to better capture actual statistical capacity. PARIS21 Task Team (2002a), The Framework for Determining Statistical Capacity Building Indicators, The paper hypothesizes thatApril. the WB’s focus on statistical activities and outputs to measure statistical capacity, to the detriment of aspects related PARIS21 Task Team and (2002b), Statistical Capacity Indicators Final to statistical systems data-producing agencies,Building results in the indicator Report. September. poorly reflecting actual statistical capacity. To support this hypothesis, the paper uses a two-pronged approach. First, the paper builds on the new understanding of, P.and approach to capacity capacity Wingfield-Digby, (2008), “Africa’s STATS and League – Theenhancement. Movers and Indeed, 2006-2007,” the development of the WB’s framework for measuring Shakers African Statistical Newsletter, vol. 2, no. 1, pp.statistical 26-28. capacity occurred when international efforts were underway to revamp World Bank (2006), Statistical Capacity Improvement in IDA Countries – Progress Report. Washington DC: The World Bank, May 16. 2 Fantom and Watanabe (2008). 167 182 The African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique africain, numéro 7, novembre 2008 165 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko ANNex the approach 1: compoNeNtS to capacity building of and thealign World it to the BANk’S paradigm iNdex of resultsof StAtiSticAl based management. cApAcity These efforts resulted in the framework known as the “capacity building results-chain approach.” The paper refers to this framework in its attempt to capture the very meaning of statistical capacity. i. StAtiSticAl prActice indicators 1 0 max Weight Second, paper on last recent developments terms of the 1. National the accounts base relies Within 10 years or annual chain inOtherwise 1 measure10 ment year of statistical capacity linking at the international level. The formulation of the WB’sof payments framework also took placeManual, at a time there was 2. Balance Balance of Payments the fifthwhen Otherwise 1 consider10 able momentum to improve statistics, statistical capacity, and statistical manual in use* edition capacity measurement in developing November1 1999,10this 3. External debt reporting Actual or preliminary countries. InOtherwise resulted status* in the launch of the PARIS21 Consortium, a global forum and network at promoting facilitating capacity 4. Consumeraimed Price Index Within last and 10 years or annual chainstatistical Otherwise 1 building 10 andbasebetter year use of statistics. linkingIt also led to the establishment of the PARIS21 Task Team, which in May 2001 was tasked 5. Industrial production Produced and available from IMFwith devising Otherwise an approach 1 10 to statistical capacity building measurement. For the purposes of this paper, index the PARIS21prices framework provides benchmarks which the 6. Import/export Produced and available from IMF against Otherwise 1 WB’s10approach to statistical capacity measurement can be assessed. 7. Government finance Consolidated central government Otherwise 1 10 accounting concept* accounts The paper’sreporting reliance on theor capacity building chain and on10the 8. Enrollment to Annual missed reporting only once results Otherwise 1 PARIS21 not only with the specific subject matter UNESCO approaches resonates in the last 4 years but also reporting with the role that themeasles WB played in the development 9. Vaccine to instrumental Nationally reported data on Otherwise 1 10 of WHO* these approaches. Indeed, not only did it spearhead the promotion of vaccine cover-age consistent with the capacity building results chain approach but, in concert with the UN, WHO estimates OECD, IMF,Data and the EC, the WB also co-foundedOtherwise the PARIS21 10. IMF’s Special DisSubscribed 1 Consor10 tium. Moreover, it was also part of the PARIS21 Task Team, and assumed semination Standard* the PARIS21 Task Team’s secretariat.3 maximum total score: 100 ii. dAtA collectioN Using both the PARIS21 framework and the capacity building results indicators 1 max Weight chain approach, this paper explores2 the WB’s use of0 statistical activities 1. Periodicity of population census statistical ≤ 10 years Otherwise 2 10 and outputs to measure capacity. It identifies the problems that 2. Periodicity of agricultural census ≤ 10 years Otherwise 2 10 this poses, and provides insights into how the WB’s indicator could be 3. Periodicity of surveys ≤ 3 years capacity. ≤ 5 years Otherwise 2 10 improved sopoverty as torelated better reflect statistical (IES, LSMS, etc.) 4. Periodicity of health related surveys (DHS, MICS, Priority survey, etc) ≤ 3 years 5. Completeness of vital registration Complete The membership of the PARIS21 Task Team system* ≤ 5 years Otherwise 2 10 Otherwise 2 10 was as follows: the IMF, Chair (Ms. L. Laliberté, Chairperson, Mr. T. Morrison, Mr. J. Bové and Mr. S. Khawaja), the World maximum total score: 100 Bank, Secretariat (Mrs. M. Harrison, Secretariat, Mr. M. Belkindas, and Mr. G. Eele), the UN Statistics Division, UNSD (Mr. W. de Vries), the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, UN ECLAC (Ms. B. Carlson), and the UN Economic /cont… Commission of Europe, UNECE (Mr. J-E. Chapron), and AFRISTAT (Mr. Lamine Diop). The Consultants to the PARIS21 Task Team were Mr. D. Allen, Mr. T. Holt and Mr. J. van Tongeren. 3 168African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique statistique africain, africain, numéro numéro 7, 7, novembre novembre 2008 2008 The 166 Le Journal 183 The World Bank’s Framework for Statistical Capacity Measurement Floribert Ngaruko ANNex davantage1:que compoNeNtS les capacités à proprement of theparler. World Pour BANk’S améliorer iNdex l’approche, of le StAtiSticAl papier suggère l’affinement cApAcity de la(cont.) méthode d’agrégation des indicateurs des différentes composantes des systèmes statistiques, des activités et de la production statistiques, etAVAilABility surtout la prise en compte du degré d’utilisation des capacités iii. StAtiSticS existantes qui est le chaînon manquant dans1 l’approche 0de la Banque monindicators 3 2 max Weight diale, entre activités/production et capacités statistiques. 1. Periodicity of income ≤ 3 years ≤ 5 years > 5 years Otherwise 3 5 poverty indicator Mots clés of: child Indicateur Renforcement des 2. Periodicity mal- ≤ 3 de yearscapacités ≤ 5 years statistiques, > 5 years Otherwise 3 capacités, 5 Utilisation des capacités, PARIS21, Approche du renforcement des capacités nutrition indicator par la chaîne des résultats. 3. Periodicity of child National or inter- Otherwise 1 5 mortality indicator 1.4. Immunization iNtroductioN indicator 5. HIV/AIDS indicator national estimates available Annual Otherwise 1 5 National or inter- Otherwise 1 5 The World Bank (henceforth WB) has been rating countries around the national estimates world for their statistical capacity since 2004. The WB’s indicator of staavailable tistical capacity uses ≤information publicly to assess three aspects, 6. Periodicity of maternal 3 years ≤ 5 years > 5 yearsavailableOtherwise 3 5 namely statistical practices, data collection activities, and statistics availhealth indicator ability. Recently, has≤indicated its intentionOtherwise to improve3 its frame7. Periodicity of gender the ≤WB 3 years 5 years > 5 years 5 equalityfor in education work statistical capacity measurement by shifting toward a new apindicator focusing on four dimensions: institutional framework, statistical proach 2 8. Primary completion least one Otherwise 1 5 methodology, data sources, and data Atdissemination. indicator observation in the last 5 years contribute to this The objective of this paper is to improvement effort, no9. Access water indica- an analysis of the National or interOtherwise 1 the WB’s 5 tably bytoproposing strengths and weaknesses of tor nationalmeasurement, estimates existing approach to statistical capacity and by exploring available some options for its enhancement. Specifically, the paper seeks to explore 10. Periodicity of GDP Annual ≤ 1.5 1.5 yearsuse of statistical Otherwise activities 3 5and the rationale and modalities of the >WB’s growth indicator years outputs to measure statistical capacity, to determine the problems that this totalcould score: 100 poses, and to devise some options as to how the WB’smaximum indicator be improved to better capture actual statistical capacity. Source: World Bank. * Components not related to statistical activities and outputs. The paper hypothesizes that the WB’s focus on statistical activities and outputs to measure statistical capacity, to the detriment of aspects related to statistical systems and data-producing agencies, results in the indicator poorly reflecting actual statistical capacity. To support this hypothesis, the paper uses a two-pronged approach. First, the paper builds on the new understanding of, and approach to capacity and capacity enhancement. Indeed, the development of the WB’s framework for measuring statistical capacity occurred when international efforts were underway to revamp 2 Fantom and Watanabe (2008). 169 184 The African Statistical Journal, Volume 7, November Le2008 Journal statistique africain, numéro 7, novembre 2008 165
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