US Energy
Independence:
The Road to Self Sufficiency
and Implications for the
Geopolitics of the Middle East
Dr. Nansen G. Saleri
President & CEO | Quantum Reservoir Impact
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
ABANA Luncheon – The Harvard Club, New York City
NASA’s NanoSail-D
Source: sciencenews.org
US Energy Independence: The Road to Self Sufficiency
© Quantum Reservoir Impact, LLC
1
US Energy Independence
• Definition: The state of US energy
market where key indicators in play
(Price, spare capacity, other) are
insensitive to external supplies
• Benchmark: 90% self-sufficiency
US Energy Independence: The Road to Self Sufficiency
© Quantum Reservoir Impact, LLC
2
World Energy Use by Fuel Type – 2010
52.05
Renewables
27.64
Nuclear
172.90
Coal
130.26
Liquids
117.30
Natural Gas
Total quadrillion British thermal units (QBtu)
US consumption (QBtu)
500.15
97.89
Source: EIA, International Energy Statistics database (as of July 27, 2010), www.eia.gov/emeu/international.
Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2010).
US Energy Independence: The Road to Self Sufficiency
© Quantum Reservoir Impact, LLC
3
World Oil Reserves / Production Ratio vs. Global Resource Size
300
Reserves / Production
250
200
150
100
200
50
100
55
0
1.66 trillion barrels
3 trillion barrels
6 trillion barrels
*Using 2010 production of 30 billion barrels
Sources: Energy Detente
US Energy Independence: The Road to Self Sufficiency
© Quantum Reservoir Impact, LLC
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Case Study: NOC Production
3.50
3.30
3.37
3.10
2.90
3.13
3.38
3.18
3.33
3.26
3.08
3.01
2.79
2.70
2.50
2.30
2.10
1.90
Real
2.60 2.58
2.55
2.58
Proyeccion internacional 2009 *
Proyeccion internacional 2010 *
Proyeccion internacional 2011 *
Plan de Negocios
1.70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012** 2013 2014 2015
* Efficiency initiatives, collaboration and new technologies lead to: 0% decline rate, 100% reserves replacement ration (RRR)
US Energy Independence: The Road to Self Sufficiency
© Quantum Reservoir Impact, LLC
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Primary Energy Flow by Source and Sector
Supply Sources
Total = 94.6 QBtu (~61% of energy lost)
Percent of Source
Demand Sectors
Percent of Sector
72
22
5
1
94
3
3
3
32
35
30
41
40
7
11
17
7
<1
93
76
1
7
12
26
9
1
53
18
48
11
22
100
Note: Sum of components may not equal total due to independent rounding.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Review 2009
US Energy Independence: The Road to Self Sufficiency
© Quantum Reservoir Impact, LLC
6
Current Energy Reality
• Current energy deficit is 16%
• 60% of energy is wasted
• Natural gas provides 25% of energy consumption
• US has >100 years of gas supplies
• Gas is approximately 4.3x times cheaper than oil on MMbtu
equivalent basis (9.2x times in March 2012)
• Renewables account for 8% of energy sources
US Energy Independence: The Road to Self Sufficiency
© Quantum Reservoir Impact, LLC
7
Impact of Fuel Efficiency & EV on US Gasoline Consumption
Billion Barrels / Year
4.00
3.00
2.00
3.11
1.00
1.74
1.53
1.13
0.00
2010
Total vehicles:
23 mpg
251 mm
EV = 0%
2025
40 mpg
305 mm
EV = 20%
2025
40 mpg
305 mm
EV = 30%
2025
54 mpg
305 mm
EV = 30%
Average car miles traveled per year: 12,000.
US Energy Independence: The Road to Self Sufficiency
© Quantum Reservoir Impact, LLC
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North American Supply Growth
Source: Citi Investment Research and Analysis, Global Perspectives & Solutions 20 March 2012
US Energy Independence: The Road to Self Sufficiency
© Quantum Reservoir Impact, LLC
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Changing Trends
Source: Natural Gas Rocks The Energy World , WSJ - 26 Mar 2013
US Energy Independence: The Road to Self Sufficiency
© Quantum Reservoir Impact, LLC
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2010 versus Future Scenario
Nuclear
8%
Nuclear
8% Renewables
8%
Renewables
15%
Coal
21%
NG/NGPL
26%
Coal
10%
NG/NGPL
43%
Oil
24%
Oil
37%
Total = 98 Qbtu
Total = 103 Qbtu
2010
Future
Source: EIA (2011), QRI
US Energy Independence: The Road to Self Sufficiency
© Quantum Reservoir Impact, LLC
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Back to the Future
The 103-year-old Detroit electric
Model D, once thought obsolete,
may have been well ahead of its
time. As electric cars come into
vogue, this rediscovered vehicle,
which fell out of favour as the
world turned to petrol cars but
could cover 160km on a single
charge, fetched $55,000 USD
(€41,000) at auction in the USA
in January 2013.
*Detroit Electric (1907–1939) produced by
Anderson Electric Car Company in Detroit, MI
Source: The Files March 2013,
Holland Herald (KLM)
US Energy Independence: The Road to Self Sufficiency
© Quantum Reservoir Impact, LLC
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Concluding Thoughts
• The US is on track to be 90% plus energy-sufficient by 2020
• Technologies and public perception will dictate political and
policy choices in shaping the future energy outlook
• Shale technologies – despite their game-changing impact –
are primitive by tomorrow’s standards and are likely to see
massive improvements in the years ahead
• Even under imperfect scenarios, prevailing outcomes point to
enhanced sense of US energy security and independence
• Global energy geopolitics have tilted towards the US. The
future energy outlook is far more distributed and less
Middle-East centric.
US Energy Independence: The Road to Self Sufficiency
© Quantum Reservoir Impact, LLC
13
Thank You.
A downloadable version of today’s presentation
may be found on the QRI website:
www.qrigroup.com
US Energy Independence: The Road to Self Sufficiency
© Quantum Reservoir Impact, LLC
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