The UK Pizza Market Pizza is now the most popular
food purchased in restaurants –
the 2nd most popular item bought
in supermarkets for dinner – and
4th most popular dinner item
purchased in fast food outlets
In the last year:
Market Value £ 3,285 million Plus approx £1.2 billion for
other full service restaurants
serving pizza *
*Source: PAPA 2014 Es2mates – excludes Italian tra=oria Volume Sales + 5% Chilled Pizza Market:
Market Value £474 million + 5.9% Volume Sales 224.5 million pizzas + 1.5% Deli Pizza Market £96 million + 13.6% Deli Pizza Market 37.5 million pizzas +12% *Source: PAPA/Kantar 2014 – 52 weeks to 12 October 2014 Frozen Pizza Market:
Market Value £416 million + 1.7% Volume Sales 283 million pizzas 1% *Source: PAPA/Kantar 2014 – 52 weeks to 12 October 2014 Pizza Restaurant Market:
Market Value £1271 million + 3.5% TransacHons + 0.5% *Source: PAPA 2014 excludes Italian Tra=oria Over 90% of outlets are chains Outlets + 10 = + 2.5% 2/3rd chain sites Pizza Restaurant
Market:
•  Full service pizza restaurants remain one
of the most popular in High Street
•  While chains continue to dominate –
independents are also growing
•  Six out of 10 casual restaurants have a
pizza or pasta focus.
*Source: PAPA 2014 excludes Italian Tra=oria Pizza Delivery/Takeaway
Market:
Market Value £1125 million + 8% TransacHons + 2% Over 50% of outlets are chains Independents declining *Source: PAPA 2014 Outlets + 51 = + 2% 100% chain sites Pizza Delivery/Takeaway
Market:
•  Pizza Home delivery market is now accounts for
over 1/6th of market
•  One of the most resilient sectors during recession
•  Independents are struggling against marketing
and IT might of the chains – and this is likely to
continue
•  It is estimated that over half of pizza delivery
sales are made on-line and orders from mobile
devices are increasing rapidly
*Source: PAPA 2014 Who has what share?
Retail sector (chilled/frozen) = 27% of market Pizza Restaurants = 39% Pizza Delivery/takeaway = 34% *Source: PAPA 2014 Margin Pressures
CHILLED PIZZAS
Average Prices 2008 = £1.93 2014 = £2.10 With inflaHon should be £2.24 *Source: PAPA 2014 Margin Pressures
FROZEN PIZZAS
Average Prices 2008 = £1.42 2014 = £1.46 With inflaHon should be £1.46 *Source: PAPA 2014 Margin Pressures
RESTAURANTS
Average TransacHon Values 2008 = £29.00 2013 = £29.65 With inflaHon should be £33.76 *Source: PAPA 2014 Margin Pressures
DELIVERY
Average TransacHon Values 2008 = £13.03 2013 = £13.95 With inflaHon should be £15.17 *Source: PAPA 2014 The QS Pizza/Italian market saw good growth in spend sourced to increased spend
and traffic this year
QS Pizza/Italian Components of Spending YE Sept ‘14 vs YA TOTAL SPEND +5.9% £1.35 Billion AVERAGE INDIVIDUAL SPEND +2.4% ₤6.06 Items Per Eater -­‐1.4% 2.1 Price Per Item 4.0% £2.85 VISITS/TRAFFIC +3.5% 223 Million QS Pizza/Italian Direc2onal Traffic Change (000) YE Sept ‘14 vs YA Male Adult Only* Female Par2es w/ Kids* ABC1 On-­‐Premises C2DE Off-­‐Premises Mon-­‐Fri Deal/Promo Sat-­‐Sun No Deal/Promo < 18
Breakfast 18-24
Lunch 25-34
Dinner 35-49
Snack n/a n/a 50-64
> 65
(++) / (-­‐-­‐) = PCYA <> 15% n/a = Insufficient sample n/a * = Meal Occasions Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Sep ‘14 Higher prices in the FS Pizza/Italian market along with increased traffic lead to an
increase in total spend this year.
FS Pizza/Italian Components of Spending Sept ‘14 vs YA TOTAL SPEND +2.3% £2.9 Billion AVERAGE INDIVIDUAL SPEND +1.1% ₤11.37 Items Per Eater -­‐8.0% 2.9 Price Per Item +9.7% £3.95 VISITS/TRAFFIC +1.3% 251 Million FS Pizza/Italian Direc2onal Traffic Change (000) Sept ‘14 vs YA Male Adult Only* Female Par2es w/ Kids* ABC1 On-­‐Premises C2DE Off-­‐Premises Mon-­‐Fri Deal/Promo Sat-­‐Sun No Deal/Promo < 18
Breakfast 18-24
Lunch 25-34
Dinner 35-49
Snack 50-64
> 65
(++) / (-­‐-­‐) = PCYA <> 15% n/a = Insufficient sample * = Meal Occasions Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Sep ‘14 QS and FS Pizza/Italian showing good growth in traffic this year
%
Traffic
Share
8.8% 5.6% 4.3% 11.3% 2.6% 3.5% 4.6% 2.0% 1.7% 2.3% 1.6% 1.3% 4.1% 2.4% 3.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.4% 13.3% 1.3% 4.7% ] 17 [ Total Out of Home (OOH)
Traffic Change (000) and Trend by Category
Category
QS Burger QS Coffee Hotel Pubs QS Chicken QS Sandwich QS Bakery QS Pizza/Italian In-­‐Store Restaurant FS Pizza/Italian FS Ethnic Ice Cream Shop FS Tradi2onal QS Other QS Fish n Chips Motorway Service Sta2ons On-­‐Board Catering Bar/Club Retail/Supermarket Leisure/Entertainment Oth QS Ethnic %
Traffic
Change
Traffic Change
31,087
16,958
15,509
15,421
11,796
7,972
7,608
7,504
3,733
3,233
1,768
977
779
529
(85)
(194)
(272)
(778)
(982)
(1,277)
(1,953)
(++) / (-­‐-­‐) = PCYA <> 15% n/a = Insufficient sample Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Sep '14 3.3% 2.8% 3.4% 1.3% 4.2% 2.1% 1.5% 3.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% -­‐1.0% -­‐0.4% -­‐0.5% -­‐0.1% -­‐0.9% -­‐0.4% Incidence of Pizza is growing whilst Pasta is declining slightly
%
Traffic
Share
11.5% 7.8% 2.8% 4.7% 3.5% 1.0% 1.7% 0.9% 1.2% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 2.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 2.5% 0.5% 2.2% ] 18 [ Total Out of Home (OOH)
Traffic Change (000) and Trend by Food Item
Category
Sandwich (Meat/ Poultry) Total Beef Burger Chicken Burger Pizza Bacon Fried Chicken (Bone) Hash Browns Kebab Pie (Meat/ Vegetable) Hot Dog Salad (No meat or fish) Fish Burger Chicken-­‐Non Fried Jacket Potato Sandwich (Fish/ Seafood) Total Pasty Pork Potato Wedges/ Skins Lamb BBQ Ribs Chicken Wings Pasta Ham Chicken Nuggets/ Strips %
Traffic
Change
Traffic Change
100,134
67,627
52,945
24,203
18,439
15,441
14,518
13,108
11,042
8,465
7,798
6,710
5,859
3,923
1,960
1,136
967
700
664
217
(28)
(963)
(1,512)
(2,052)
(++) / (-­‐-­‐) = PCYA <> 15% n/a = Insufficient sample Source: The NPD Group/CREST®, YE Sep '14 8.5% 8.6% 20.3% 4.9% 5.0% 15.6% 8.4% 14.8% 9.0% 21.9% 3.7% 14.3% 6.3% 3.1% 0.7% 0.9% 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% -­‐0.4% -­‐2.9% -­‐0.8% Key issues facing industry •  State of the High Street
•  Economic uncertainties
•  Ingredient cost increases
•  Healthy eating concerns
•  Maintaining consumer interest (innovation)
*Source: PAPA 2014