MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK & FISHERIES
PRESS RELEASE ON THE NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY SITUATION
AUGUST 2015
The 2015 long rains have just ended with good performance in the
middle and low rainfall areas. This resulted in average to above average
food production in most parts of the country thereby boosting and
further stabilizing overall food security. The Long rains are still on in the
main food producing areas of Western and North Rift and peak
harvesting is expected in October/November with complete end of
harvesting season in December. The national food security situation
outlook for the remaining part of the year is therefore expected to be on
a continuous positive improvement trend.
With the good rains, significant food security improvement has also been
recorded in the Arid and Semi Arid Areas (ASALS) where severe food
insecurity prevailed in some counties at the beginning of the year.
According to the outcomes of 2015 Long Rains Food Situation
Assessment carried out in July/August 2015, most of the areas that were
in Crisis Phase have already recovered and are now in Stressed/Minimal
Food Insecurity Phase except some pockets in Isiolo, Western parts of
Wajir and south western parts of Marsabit Counties. The number of
people in need of food assistance has significantly declined to 1.07
million from over 1.6 million in February 2015.
1
Improved food supplies have translated to improved stocks of major
staples at various levels but majorly at household level. The National
maize stocks as at 1st September, 2015 stood at 14,638,350 bags, with
farmers holding about 6,737,950 bags, Traders 2,350,200 bags,
Millers 1,135,000 bags and NCPB 4,017,840 bags. Beans stocks
totaled 906,850 bags, Wheat 3,670,450 bags and Rice 343,470
bags. The improvement of various food stocks will continue through
September/October as harvesting begins and continues in the Western
parts of the country.
The current Maize balance sheet projected from 1st August 2015 to 31st
December, 2015 shows that the available stocks are currently adequate
to meet national needs for the next four months with a surplus of
12,092,100
bags by end December, 2015.
Stocks of other foods
commodities are also adequate. Wheat harvesting began in August in
the major wheat producing counties of Narok and Nakuru thereby
boosting national local supplies.
Prices of common food staples are low and stable especially for beans,
potatoes, fresh vegetables and fruits. In major markets, prices of
vegetables are relatively low and stable but prices of out of season fruits
have increased but marginally. Irish potatoes
prices
has increased
slightly compared to July due to increased market demand. A 90 kg bag
of bean is Ksh 6,000, while a bag of 110Kg Irish potatoes is selling at
Ksh 2,390.
2
Maize prices per 90Kg bag has remained at Ksh 2,900 on monthly
average. This is expected to rapidly decline with maize harvesting
commencing in the main food baskets in Western and North Rift. The
retail prices of major maize flour brands have been on general increase
and stand at an average cost of Ksh 114 in August up from Ksh. 88 in
January 2015. The flour prices are expected to decrease as supplies of
maize improve in various regions and in particular, when harvesting
starts in the North Rift Grain Basket.
In the meantime, the Government through the Strategic Food Reserve
(SFR) Oversight Board has released 800,000 bags of 90kg of maize
from the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) depots in various
parts of the country for sale at a price of Ksh 2,300 per bag. This
maize is immediately available to registered millers and learning
institutions including schools and colleges. It is expected that the release
of the SFR maize stocks will stabilize the maize prices and effectively
lower the flour prices.
3
ANNEX 1
FOOD BALANCE SHEET ESTIMATES
Table 1: Maize balance sheet from 1st August 2015 to 31st December,
2015
Carry over stock in 90kg bags
a) Total East Africa Imports* (cross border trade) expected
between August 2015 to December 2015
b) Private sector/ Relief agencies estimated imports outside EAC
between August 2015 to December 2015
Estimated balance L.R harvest projections up to December 2015
Total available stocks by December 2015
11,074,196
850,000
Post –harvest storage losses estimated at 10%
Projected national availability as at 31st December 2015 ( 90kg
Bags)
Expected total exports to East Africa Community region
Expected exports outside the EAC region
Amount used as animal feeds (3% of household stocks)
Amount retained as seed (1%)
Net available stocks by December 2015
CONSUMPTION @3.34 million bags/Month for 43 million people for
5 months
Balance as at 31st December 2015 (surplus)
3,332,420
29,991,776
4
400,000
21,000,000
33,324,196
0
0
899,753
299,918
28,792,105
16,700,000
12,092,105
ANNEX 2
COMMODITY PRICES
Table 2: Maize wholesale prices Trend from January to August 2015
Maize
Prices
NBI
MSA
Kisumu
Nakuru
Eldoret
Kitale
Tharaka
Average
August
2,990
2,960
3,140
2,600
2,770
-
-
2,940
July
2,960
3,100
3,240
2,640
2,700
2490
2680
2,930
June
2,900
3,200
3,200
2,700
2,500
2440
2790
2,900
May
3,000
3,110
2,880
2,500
2,600
2,400
2,880
2,770
April
2,450
2,725
3,300
2,100
2,200
2,100
2,750
2,520
March
2,400
2,500
3,200
2,100
2,200
2,000
2,600
2,430
February
2,395
2,500
3,320
2,100
2,020
1,800
2,450
2,370
January
2,580
2,500
3,200
2,100
2,000
1,700
2,450
2,360
Average
2,620
2,760
3,180
2,270
2,250
2,000
2,625
2,650
Kitale
5,450
6,180
6,950
6,690
5,300
4,475
4,000
5,180
Average
6,060
5,960
6,740
7,470
7,106
6,550
6,160
6,035
6,770
Figure 1: Maize price trends in major markets (90 kg bags)
Table 3: Beans price trends in selected January to August 2015
Prices
NBI
MSA
Kisumu
Nakuru
August
5,715
5,575
6,680
5,400
July
6,240
5,620
6,800
5,320
June
7400
5800
7200
7,000
May
7300
9000
7800
7000
April
7,380
7,000
7,400
7,000
March
6,400
6,800
7,200
6,400
Feb
6,310
5,760
6,445
5,400
Jan
6,120
5,800
6,800
5,400
Average 6,820
6,690 7,140
6,370
Figure 2: Average bean price trends in major market
5
Eldoret
5,423
5,840
6,300
6750
6,750
7,200
8,595
8,100
7,280
Table 4: Irish potato price trends (100 Kg bag)
Nairobi
August
July
June
May
April
March
Feb
Jan
Average
Mombasa
Kisumu
Nakuru
Eldoret
Thika
Busia
Average
2,393
2,210
1,700
3,400
2,180
1,655
2,340
2,140
1,800
820
-
1,020
2,120
2,100
1,640
1,040
1,970
1,700
2,600
3,000
2,000
1,600
2,850
2,840
3,444
4,760
3800
3140
3540
3800
3,900
3205
3,250
2,870
2,960
3,250
2260
2,250
2,980
2,800
4,100
2905
2,700
3,250
3,450
3,840
2675
2,500
2867
2,950
3,350
2375
2,360
2,700
2,590
3,670
3345
3,300
3,150
3,400
3,920
3165
3,150
3,050
3,420
Figure 3: Irish potato price trends (100 Kg bag)
6
-
3,620
3,720
2,850
2,790
2,980
3,020
Table 5: Price trends of flour brands in January to August 2015
Brands
Jembe
Ndovu
January
72
84
May
104
104
June
98
103
July
105
108
Pembe
83
104
106
112
Soko
Hostess
85
130
104
134
103
139
113
147
Jogoo
Kifaru
87
85
106
103
108
102
110
103
Pendana
Average
85
88
109
108
108
108
108
113
August
107
108
112
112
150
115
110
109
114
Figure 4: Price trends of flour brands in January to August 2015
Cabbage - 126 kg extended bag
August
July
June
May
Nairobi
1,475
1,440
1,600
2,640
Mombasa
2,035
2,520
2,800
4,684
Kisumu
903
900
1,200
1,608
Nakuru
800
800
900
2,500
Eldoret
1,070
1,200
1,600
1,620
Kisii
1,500
850
1,300
1,400
Nakuru
2,019
2,500
3,500
3,300
Eldoret
990
1,600
3,000
1,740
Kisii
2,300
2,200
7,400
6,000
Average
1,290
1,280
1,570
2,410
Carrots-138 Kg extended bag
August
July
June
May
Nairobi
2,280
3,340
4,000
3,940
Mombasa
2,870
3,660
11,500
10,656
Kisumu
3,450
4,200
5,000
4,500
7
Average
2,320
2,915
5,330
5,020
Tomatoes- 64 Kg box
Nairobi
Mombasa
Kisumu
Nakuru
Eldoret
Average
Kisii
August
4,930
5,680
4,600
4,365
4,185
4,430
4,690
July
4,740
5,600
3,300
4,400
3,940
4,000
4,330
June
5,000
5,000
3,000
3,500
4,600
4,000
4,180
May
6,100
6,080
5,500
5,900
4,700
6,500
5,800
Onions-13 Kg Net
Nairobi
Mombasa Kisumu
Nakuru
Eldoret
Kisii
Average
825
715
990
750
1020
619
819
July
1,010
750
1,016
900
1,142
500
886
June
1,300
1,100
1,300
1,000
1,300
1,000
1,165
May
1,200
1,440
1,340
1,000
1,170
1,000
1,195
August
Kales-50 Kg Bag
Nairobi
August
Mombasa
Kisumu
Nakuru
Eldoret
Average
Kisii
1075
1110
1200
765
805
360
885
July
1,170
1,360
1,360
880
1,000
575
1,060
June
1,200
1,700
1,400
350
1,000
450
1,017
May
1,200
1,410
1,420
750
1,120
1,000
1,150
Passions – 57 Kg bag
Average
Nairobi
Mombasa
Kisumu
Nakuru
Eldoret
August
4,695
6,750
3,064
5,000
2,270
4,550
July
4,520
5,900
3,000
5,000
2,840
4,250
June
4,600
6,000
3,000
5,000
3,135
4,345
May
4,800
6,700
3,000
5,000
3,420
4,580
Oranges- 93 Kg bag
Nairobi
Mombasa
Kisumu
Nakuru
Eldoret
Kisii
Average
August
3,625
4,460
3,946
3,550
3,955
5,100
4,100
July
3,120
3,600
3,300
3,200
4,060
4,500
3,630
June
2,800
3,000
3,000
3,000
3,600
4,000
3,233
May
3,200
2,620
3,000
3,000
3,260
3,500
3,100
8
Mangoes-126 Kg bag
Average
Nairobi
Mombasa
Kisumu
Nakuru
Eldoret
August
2,290
2,255
2,640
3,250
2,240
2,535
July
2,160
1,380
2,260
3,000
2,080
2,175
June
2,300
1,200
2,500
-
2,800
2,200
May
2,620
1,100
2,400
-
2,160
2,070
Pineapples -13 Kg box
Average
Nairobi
Mombasa
Kisumu
Nakuru
Eldoret
Kisii
August
747
880
630
480
1028
614
725
July
740
900
620
480
1032
550
720
June
720
900
600
480
1,040
550
715
May
752
936
680
480
1,170
600
770
Pawpaws-54 kg box
August
July
June
May
Nairobi
1778
1,800
1,700
1,960
Mombasa
1325
1,200
1,300
690
Kisumu
1500
1,500
1,500
1,500
Nakuru
3000
3,000
2,500
Eldoret
1637
2,148
3,240
1,890
Kisii
663
675
700
700
Average
1,650
1,725
1,680
1,540
Avocado-90 Kg bag
August
July
June
May
Nairobi
1877
2,160
2,000
2,400
Mombasa
2915
3,000
3,500
3,050
Kisumu
1700
1,700
1,600
1,600
9
Nakuru
2000
2,000
2,000
2,000
Eldoret
1580
1,800
1,800
1,800
Kisii
1056
750
800
800
Average
1,850
1,902
1,950
1,940