Report from the international seminar
The Implications of China’s Rise
for Asia and Europe
Organised by:
The Finnish Institute of International Affairs
The Foreign Affairs Committee of the Parliament of Finland
Helsinki, 6 April 2006
Summaries of the presentations by Teemu Naarajärvi
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Inter-Asian Relations: A View from China
by Professor Huang Renwei
Dr. Huang Renwei is Professor of International Relations and Vice-President of the Shanghai Academy
of Social Sciences. He has published widely on Sino-U.S. relations, Asian regional cooperation,
international trade and cross-Strait relations. One of his better-known books is “The Time and
Space of China’s Rise” (2002). Professor Huang has been a visiting fellow at Leiden University,
Netherlands (1997); at Rand Corporation, U.S. (1998); and Stanford University, U.S. (1999); as
well as participated in numerous strategic dialogues between China and the U.S., EU, and Japan.
Professor Huang started his presentation with a brief overview of the factors behind China’s
rise. The end of the Cold War, economic globalisation and transformation of the international
system, among many other things, have contributed to China’s rise. In the
past 20 years China has experienced impressive economic growth and this
is likely to continue, although at a slightly more modest rate for the next 15 The most
years. However, there are still several shortcomings that China must solve critical
to continue its rise: levels of energy efficiency and technology innovations
problem
are still low and, according to Professor Huang, approximately 80% of
facing
Chinese still live in rural areas under difficult conditions.
The rise of China has already had many geo-economic implications in China
Asia. China is the main engine of East Asian growth. China has even closer
concerns
economic ties with surrounding countries that often enjoy a trade surplus
with their bigger neighbour. This, among others, has led to both regional Taiwan.
economic integration and even sub-regional cooperation. China has been
active in multilateral organisations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and
ASEAN+3 with broad agendas ranging from border security and counter-terrorism to Asian
Monetary Agreement and prevention of bird flu and SARS.
All these factors have contributed to China’s political rise as well. In Professor Huang’s
opinion three changes have taken place in China. China has moved:
· from a closed state to an active participator in the international regime
· from a revolutionary state to a “responsible stakeholder”
· from an outsider of regional society to a builder of regional order
This has had broader geo-political implications in Asia. According to Professor Huang, China
has a “friendly surrounding policy” even when there are difficult problems such as border
issues or disputed islands to solve. Relations to the three major regional powers (Russia, India
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and Japan) are pursued according to the Policy of Peaceful Co-Existence. At the same time
China does not wish not to challenge the alliance system of the United States in Asia.
Regionally, China faces major problems only with its relations with Japan. Sino-Japanese
relations are very complicated and at the same time the two countries are highly interdependent.
The problems with Japan are old, dating back to the end of the 19th century. These, together
with more contemporary problems, have created a tangle of issues that will be difficult to solve.
However, Professor Huang emphasized that the interdependence of China and Japan is so great
that the two countries cannot become real enemies.
At the moment, the most critical problem facing China concerns Taiwan. Is there a crisis
coming or can the issue be settled by peaceful means? Professor Huang sees the potential
declaration of independence by Taiwan as the biggest threat to the status quo. As the parties
involved have different definitions of the current status quo, the situation is even more complex.
Therefore, he does not see any timetable for the settlement of the issue, but believes that in the
long-term there will be peace and stability in the region.
When speaking of the U.S. presence in Asia, Professor Huang believed that the two countries
are trying to further their cooperation to maintain regional stability by traditional security crisis
management. At the same time China and the U.S. are building a new framework of regional
security that would deal with non-traditional security threats. The vital interests of both countries
must always be borne in mind: for the U.S. these are dominance and leadership in Asia, for
China these are sovereignty and territory. Professor Huang said the Chinese do not believe that
the alliance system of the U.S. in Asia is a major threat.
In the end, Professor Huang contemplated the question of how China will stay on the route
of peaceful development. In his opinion, the following steps have to be taken:
· more internal structural change and institutional building
· more international responsibility in its behaviour
· more common interests with other countries
· more dialogue and peaceful means
Comments by Dr Bates Gill on Professor Huang’s presentation
Dr. Bates Gill holds the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies (CSIS). He has earlier served as a senior fellow at the Center for Northeast Asian Policy
Studies at the Brookings Institution and directed East Asia programs at the Center for Nonproliferation
Studies at the Monterey Institute and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Dr.
Gill’s research focuses primarily on East Asian political, security, and socio-economic issues.
In his comments on Professor Huang’s presentation, Dr. Gill first reminded the audience how
well timed the seminar was due to the upcoming Finnish presidency of the European Union. In
his view, statistics concerning China’s economic rise are well known and therefore he wanted
to focus on two different issues, while still keeping the economic aspects in mind:
·
the political and foreign policy implications of China’s rise
·
China’s so-called political and economic development model
Dr. Gill complimented Professor Huang’s presentation, emphasizing the rapid development
of China’s multilateral security activities during the last 15 years. China has achieved a remarkable
role in e.g. Shanghai Cooperation Organization, in the Six-Party Talks concerning the Korean
Peninsula and in ASEAN+3. In addition, Dr. Gill mentioned the East Asian Summit as well as
China’s United Nations peacekeeping activities, in which China has increased its participation
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from small groups of observers to large amounts of troops (although not combat troops) and
civilian police in the past 5-7 years. At the moment, China is involved in most of the UN
peacekeeping missions, including all missions in Africa. China is also the biggest contributor of
peacekeeping troops of all the permanent members of the UN Security Council and sends
more troops than any of the NATO member countries. This kind of development is even more
remarkable when one considers how quickly China has assumed this role.
Overall, Dr. Gill saw China’s rise in a favourable light, but he had a few concerns that he
wanted to point out:
· China’s traditional concept of sovereignty and intervention in security issues
· China’s strikingly different policies toward Japan and Taiwan when compared to its other
neighbours
· China’s intentions toward the U.S.-led alliance-based security system in East Asia
· China’s political and economic development model
China refuses to deal with the elected leader, President Chen-Shui-bian of Taiwan, a vibrant
democracy, and continues to suggest that force could be one of China’s tools to resolve the
question. This has some implications, especially given the relationship involving security
guarantees between the U.S. and Taiwan. Hence, Taiwan stands out as a clear exception to
China’s general approach toward peaceful relationships with its neighbours.
Of the four features of China’s rise which give reason for concern, Dr. Gill elaborated on
the last one: China’s political and economic development model. With this model, also called
“the Beijing Consensus”, combining rapid economic growth with authoritarian, single-party
government, China has undermined the theory that economic growth would lead to political
openness. This model, with all its unprecedented achievements in e.g. poverty reduction, might
lead to unwanted outcomes in some other countries, if implemented in these countries as well.
According to Dr. Gill, China’s rise will in any case have a great impact on everybody in both
economic and political terms. This rise needs to be observed, and people should be aware that
it is not enough to pay attention to only the economic dimensions.
After the first two presentations, there was time for questions and comments. Questions asked touched
upon such issues as the impact of China’s excess savings on the global economy, China’s growing
influence in Africa and China’s attitude towards the recent nuclear deal between USA and India.
China-Japan relations, China’s influence in Latin America and its attitude towards Taiwan were
discussed in greater detail, as well as the limits that energy and environment set for economic growth
in China.
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Inter-Asian Relations: A View from ASEAN
by Dr. Eric Teo
Dr. Eric Teo Chu Cheow, Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA),
served in the Singapore diplomatic corps for eleven years before joining the corporate world. In
2001, he set up Savoir Faire Corporate Consultancy providing analysis to multi-national corporations
and international institutions on political and economic risks in Asia. He holds a Ph.D. in
Contemporary History and International Relations from the Fondation Nationale des Sciences
Politiques in Paris and he is adjunct professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.
According to Dr. Teo, there are five points to be remembered when trying to understand the
position of the Association for South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in inter-Asian relations:
·
ASEAN is in full transition
·
in this transition, race, religion and social issues create the key problems to overcome in
the coming years
·
a common foreign policy is practically non-existent in ASEAN
The Sino·
the question of democracy and globalisation: how open will ASEAN
Japanese
become?
·
unity in diversity
feud has
In his presentation, Dr. Teo focused on three topics that he called geothe
strategic and geo-economic trends in Asia today:
potential
· the East Asian Summit in December 2005
· growing Sino-American rivalry and its implications for Asia
to divide
· a greater “socialization” in Asia
Asia
Dr. Teo was rather pessimistic about the result of the East Asian
profoundly.
Summit. In his view it was a failure, and one cannot envision an “Asian
Community” at this stage. The current “Sino-Japanese feud” effectively
prevents almost all advancement on this issue, and neither a pan-Asian Free Trade Area, an
Asian Energy Community nor an Asian Financial Community emerged from the summit.
The continuation of the Sino-Japanese feud can have more implications for ASEAN as
whole: Japan has donated large amounts of money to fund the East Asian Summit, and some
countries see this as “dollar-diplomacy” to influence ASEAN. If the feud intensifies it has the
potential to divide Asia profoundly. This time the summit did not include the customary +3
breakfast summit between the Chinese, Japanese and South Korean leaders, which Dr. Teo saw
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as a very clear sign that there is no rapprochement to be seen in the near future. Moreover, the
internal politics of China and Japan might be intensifying the feud as China is expecting the
17th Party Congress in 2007 and Japanese Premier is due to change later this year.
The East Asian Summit symbolized the “potential platform for China to show its preeminence”. China’s active role was a noticeable feature, as were the absence of the United
States and the observer-status of Russia. The summit also showed some prospects for the rise
of India and ASEAN. The other geo-strategic trends that were mentioned concerned South
Korea and the Sino-Russian partnership in the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization. In general, according to Dr. Teo, Asia has become the “grand theatre of geostrategy & geo-economics” in the world for all future powers.
The Sino-American rivalry has major implications for Asian geo-strategy. The relations
between Washington and Beijing are developing towards a mixture of competition, cooperation
and rivalry. The “Washington Consensus” and the “Beijing Consensus” might lead to a “clash of
development models”, in which China and the United States would be the centres of big
international alliances and big rivalries.
Beijing has been concerned about the “China threat” thinking promoted in Washington
and is planning to “contain the U.S. containment”. At the moment China is in a process of
“peaceful development” instead of “peaceful rise” in order to assure its neighbours of its good
intentions. Beijing has also understood that “balance of power in Asia” is very important to
Tokyo and Washington.
The socio-economics of South East Asia are also in a transition. The growing middle class
and its consumption are helping the local economies, but at the same time the gap between the
rich and the poor has grown. Thus globalization and liberalization have brought negative effects
that need moderating. In order to do this, the policy of “Greater Socialization” has started in
China and India in the forms of promoting the socialist countryside and new deal, respectively.
Dr. Teo expects this trend to spread across Asia, as it becomes more prosperous, and possibly to
become one of the measures of development in the region.
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Asia-EU Relations
by Professor Song Xinning
Dr. Song Xinning is Professor of European Integration and Director of the Centre for European
Studies at Renmin University of China, which is a National Research Centre supported by the
Ministry of Education, and also the Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence supported by the European
Commission. Dr. Song has been a Research Scholar at the London School of Economics in 19911992. His main fields of study include international political economy, Chinese politics and foreign
policy, European politics and external relations. He has published nine books.
Professor Song gave a presentation that consisted of two parts: EU-Asia and EU-China relations.
In the beginning he mentioned that although the EU is a coherent group, Asia is not, which
means that although the EU can have a general Asia policy, it needs separate
policies for individual countries in East Asia. The biggest obstacle for the
The EUEast Asian Community or Asian unity is the Sino-Japanese relationship. At
China
the moment, the relations between these two countries are troubled in the
relations
political sphere, but favourable in economic terms.
Partially for this reason, China’s policy toward Asia is a “neighbouring
are the
policy”, not a regional policy or a policy aimed at regional integration.
best of
Therefore, one must be careful when talking of EU-Asia relations, and this
China’s
is also the reason why many people do not pay attention to the EU-Asia
summit.
bilateral
Concerning EU-China relations, Professor Song divided his presentation
relations.
between two issues:
· the basic features of EU-China –relations
· how to look at the problems in these relations
The EU-China relations are, according to Professor Song, the best of China’s bilateral
relations. The reason for this is that the relations are politically mature, economic relations are
at a high level, in technological transfer the EU is the number one supplier of China, and
international cooperation between China and the EU is closer than ever. The European Union
has become a “model” for China, especially when it comes to social issues.
There are, naturally, several problems in the relations between the EU and China. Professor
Song mentioned six main problems:
· EU arms embargo
· market economy status
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· trade issues
· human rights
· illegal immigration
· intellectual property rights
According to Professor Song, the arms embargo issue needs consultancy with the U.S. in
addition to bilateral talks between China and the EU before it can be solved. In the long-term,
he was not pessimistic about the lifting of the embargo, but did not expect it to happen in the
near future. The arms embargo is related to the issue of human rights. China needs time to
adjust its legal system so that it can ratify the UN Covenant of Civil and Political Rights, a
possible prerequisite suggested by the EU for lifting the embargo. So, at the moment, the EU is
not ready to lift the embargo and China is not ready to ratify the Covenant, which might lead to
the lifting of the embargo. Professor Song hopes that the issue will be solved by 2008.
The issue of the market economy status is more a technical issue, and easier to solve than
the arms embargo. It mainly depends on the political will of the EU, according to Professor
Song. Russia has already been granted market economy status though it is not a member of the
WTO whereas China already is a member. China sees this discriminatory and hopes that there
will be progress on this issue before the next EU-China Summit during the Finnish EU
presidency. Professor Song was not very worried about the trade issues between China and the
EU: such problems are normal in bilateral relations, he said.
In conclusion, Professor Song was very hopeful about the future relations between the EU
and China. He believed that most of the problems are possible to solve through dialogue. He
also reminded the audience that the United States is still the most important relationship for
both China and the EU. The European Union and China have several mutual interests, and are
likely to establish a “comprehensive strategic partnership”. However, there is still need for even
more communication and cooperation between the EU and China.
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Tiivistelmä Ulkopoliittisen instituutin ja
Eduskunnan ulkoasiainvaliokunnan
seminaarista ”The Implications of China´s
Rise for Asia and Europe”
Professori Huang Renwei Shanghain yhteiskuntatieteiden akatemiasta puhui aiheesta “InterAsian Relations: A View from China”. Esitelmässään professori Huang kävi läpi Kiinan
vaikutusvallan taloudellisia ja poliittisia vaikutuksia erityisesti Kiinan lähialueilla Itä- ja KaakkoisAasiassa.
Professori Huangin mukaan Kiina on viime vuosien aikana huomattavasti aktivoitunut
multilateraalisessa yhteistyössä muiden maiden kanssa. Tällä on yhdessä Kiinan talouskasvun
kanssa ollut suuri merkitys Kiinan ja sen lähialueiden taloudelliseen yhteistyöhön. Kiina onkin
tällä hetkellä suurin Itä-Aasian talouskasvua eteenpäin ajava voima.
Poliittisesti Kiina harrastaa rauhanomaista naapuruuspolitiikkaa, joskin tällä hetkellä sen
ongelmina ovat Taiwanin kysymys ja heikentyneet suhteet Japanin kanssa. Professori Huang
katsoi Taiwanin kiistan suurimmaksi uhaksi sen, että Taiwan julistautuisi itsenäiseksi. Mikäli
tämän tapainen kriisi vältetään, professori Huang uskoi ongelmaan löytyvän rauhanomaisen
ratkaisun, mihin tosin saattaa kulua pitkäkin aika.
Kiinan ja Japanin välisten ongelmien professori Huang katsoi johtuvan jo kauempaa
historiasta, mikä yhdistettynä viime aikojen tapahtumiin on synnyttänyt vaikeasti ratkaistavan
ongelmavyyhden. Kuitenkin hänen mukaansa maiden keskinäisriippuvuus on tällä hetkellä
niin vahva, että Kiinan ja Japanin suhteiden kehittyminen todelliseksi vihamielisyydeksi lienee
mahdotonta.
Puhuessaan Yhdysvaltojen läsnäolosta Itä-Aasiassa professori Huang sanoi, että Kiina ja
Yhdysvallat ovat tehneet yhteistyötä monilla alueilla ja että molempien maiden strategiset intressit
alueella on otettava huomioon. Kiina ei hänen mukaansa usko Yhdysvaltojen liittolaisjärjestelmän
Itä-Aasiassa olevan Kiinalle vakava uhka.
Tohtori Bates Gill, CSIS:n erikoistutkija, kommentoi omassa esitelmässään professori Huangin
puhetta. Hänen mukaansa Kiinan vaikutusvallan kasvulla on ollut positiivisia vaikutuksia mm.
YK:n rauhanturvaamisoperaatioille, mutta hän esitti myös muutaman itseään huolestuttavan
seikan.
Kiinan muista maista silmiinpistävästi poikkeava naapuruuspolitiikka Taiwania ja Japania
kohtaan ja erityisesti Kiinan varautuminen käyttämään voimatoimia Taiwanin tilanteen
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ratkaisemiseksi aiheuttavat epävarmuutta. Tämä huolettaa Yhdysvaltoja, koska Yhdysvalloilla
on läheiset suhteet Taiwanin kanssa.
Toinen tohtori Gillin mielestä huolestuttava ilmiö on ns. Kiinan poliittisen ja taloudellisen
kehityksen malli. Tämä malli yhdistää hänen mukaansa nopean taloudellisen ja poliittisen
vaikutusvallan kasvun sekä autoritaarisen yksipuoluejärjestelmän. Tällaisen mallin leviäminen
joihinkin Yhdysvaltojen kannalta ongelmallisiin valtioihin, kuten mm. Pohjois-Koreaan ja Iraniin,
voisi johtaa demokratian leviämisen kannalta ikäviin tuloksiin.
Tohtori Eric Teo Chu Cheow Singaporen kansainvälisten asioiden instituutista esitelmöi aiheesta
“Inter-Asian Relations: A View from ASEAN”. Tohtori Teon mukaan ASEAN on parhaillaan
läpikäymässä täydellistä muutosta. Tässä muutoksessa suurimmat ongelmat liittyvät rotuihin,
uskontoihin ja sosiaalisiin kysymyksiin, ja ne pitää pystyä ratkaisemaan lähitulevaisuudessa.
Lisäksi ASEAN:ilta puuttuu yhteinen ulkopolitiikka.
Tohtori Teo käsitteli myös Kiinan ja Japanin välisten ongelmien vaikutusta ASEAN:in
toimintaan. Hänen mukaansa ristiriidat maiden välillä estävät osaltaan Itä-Aasian alueellista
yhdentymistä. Tämän lisäksi Kiinan ja Japanin välinen kiista voi jatkuessaan lyödä kiilaa alueen
valtioiden väliin.
Professori Song Xinning Kiinan Renmin-yliopistosta esitelmöi Aasian ja EU:n suhteista.
Professori Song huomautti, että vaikka EU on yhtenäinen, Aasia ei sitä ole. Niinpä EU tarvitsee
yhteisen Aasian-politiikan lisäksi erilliset politiikat yksittäisiä Itä-Aasian valtioita kohtaan.
Professori Songin mukaan EU:n ja Kiinan väliset suhteet ovet tällä hetkellä erinomaiset.
Hän kuitenkin listasi kuusi kohtaa, joissa hänen mukaansa esiintyy ongelmia:
· EU:n Kiinaa koskeva asevientikielto
· Markkinatalousaseman myöntäminen Kiinalle
· Eräät kaupalliset asiat
· Ihmisoikeuskysymykset
· Laiton maahanmuutto
· Immateriaalioikeudet, kuten esimerkiksi tekijänoikeuskysymykset
Professori Song muistutti myös, että vaikka EU-suhde on tärkeä Kiinalle, suhde Yhdysvaltoihin
on edelleen Kiinan tärkein bilateraalinen suhde.
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