Options for Forest
Management for Coping with
Climate change in South Asia
Prof N H Ravindranath
Indian Institute of Science
Bangalore -12
Forests and South Asia
(Total area = 76 Mha; 19% of land area)
70,000
1990
60,000
2000
2005
Area ('000 ha)
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
B anglades h
India
Nepal
P akis tan
S ri L anka
Why worry about climate change and Forests
Forest
accounts for nearly 4 billion ha
globally and nearly 20% in south Asia.
Forests provides a number of services
biodiversity
raw materials for industry
livelihoods to large number of forest dependent and rural
communities
Forests are critical for protection of from floods,
cyclones - e.g., MANGROVES
Forests provide large mitigation potential
Climate change could impact biodiversity &
mitigation potential
Adaptation requires long-term planning.
Outline for
presentation
1.
2.
3.
4.
Climate change projections.
Projected impacts of
Climate change on forests.
Adaptation options /
strategies / policies.
Options for Forest
management under
changing climate
Temperature Rise
Rainfall
Projections
IPCC – 2007; IMPACT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON FOREST ECOSYSTEMS
Observed discernable impact of climate change
on forests and forest functions – literature
A-third of the known biodiversity is likely to face
the risk of extinction - 2100
Likely changes structure and functions such as
diversity, maintenance, productivity, carbon
sequestration, water cycling, etc., projected
Enhanced natural disturbances such as fires,
pests and extreme climatic events
ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE IMPACTS ON
FOREST ECOSYSTEMS IN INDIA
Hadley
HadRM3 regional climate model
outputs
GHG
Centre climate model
Scenarios
A2 (740 ppm) and B2 (575 ppm CO2)
Vegetation
model for assessing
climate impacts
BIOME 4; Equilibrium model
Initiated
dynamic global vegetation
model based assessment.
BIOME MODEL BASED IMPACTS ON
FOREST BIOMES
(B2 SCENARIO)
IBIS - Impact of climate change on forest types under
climate change scenario SRES A2 (1975 - 2085)
1: tropical evergreen forest / woodland, 2: tropical deciduous forest / woodland, 3. temperate evergreen broadleaf forest /
woodland, 4: temperate evergreen conifer forest / woodland, 5: temperate deciduous forest / woodland, 6: boreal
evergreen forest / woodland, 7: boreal deciduous forest / woodland, 8: mixed forest / woodland, 9: savanna, 10: grassland
/ steppe, 11: dense shrubland, 12: open shrubland, 13: tundra, 14: desert, 15. polar desert / rock / ice
0
A2
B2
Depterocarpus (Gurjan) Hollong
Khasi pine
Bamboo Forest
Fir-Spruce
Sal
Teak
Chir-pine
Up-land Hardwoods
Miscellaneous forest
SCRUB
Fir
Blue-Pine(Kail)
Mixed conifer
Salai forest
Deciduous forest
Hardwoods Conifers mix
Deodar
Khair forest
Spruce
Mangrove
Western Ghat evergreen forest
Western Ghat semi-evergreen
% grids undergoing change
PERCENTAGE OF GRIDS UNDER DIFFERENT
FOREST TYPES UNDERGOING CHANGE
under A2 & B2 GHG SCENARIOS
120
100
80
60
40
20
Impact of climate change on forest in
Pakistan
Shifts in forest types; Cold and temperate
conifers will show a northward shift, pushing
against the cold conifer/mixed woodland,
The average NPP increase of different biomes,
over the base year of 1990 is estimated as 12% in
the year 2020 and 19% in the year 2040-50
(calculated) under the climate change scenarios.
Mitigation and adaptation –
options exist in forest sector
Why Adaptation? When uncertainty in Impact
Assessment
Impacts
will be irreversible; e.g., loss of
biodiversity
Inertia in response to changing climate
Long gestation period in development &
implementation of adaptation practices
Waiting for full knowledge – high risk
Large ecological, economic and social
implications
Focus on “win – win” adaptation options
Potential Adaptation practices
Anticipatory planting of species
- along latitude and altitude
- promote assisted natural regeneration
Promote mixed species forestry
- species differ in temperature tolerance.
Develop and implement fire protection and
management practices.
Adopt thinning, sanitation and other practices.
Promote in situ and ex situ conservation of genetic
diversity.
Develop drought and pest resistance in
commercial tree species.
Adopt sustainable forest management practices.
Adaptation Policies
Incorporate adaptation practices in forest planning:
Promote forest conservation:
since biodiversity rich forest are less vulnerable due to
varying temperature tolerance.
Halt forest fragmentation
short term and long term.
to promote migration of species.
Link protected areas and create corridors
to promote migration.
Promote community forestry.
Capacity building to develop and implement adaptation
strategies.
Limitations
Limitations
of reliable regional climate
projections
Limitations of dynamic vegetation models
specific to tropical forests
Limitations of data on vegetation, soil,
water, etc parameters for modeling
Absence of adaptation models.
Absence of long term monitoring studies
Development and Adoption of DGV models to
assess
transient responses not assessed
Impact of Climate Change on other Natural
Ecosystems
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Inland Wetlands
Mangroves
Coral reefs
Montane grasslands
Animal species; habitats of mammals and other
species
Mountain ecosystems
Limited or no studies in south Asia
Based on published studies & IPCC conclusions
“all natural ecosystems likely to be adversely
impacted”
Research NETWORK;
Impacts and Adaptation & Mitigation
1.
2.
3.
4.
Ecological research on plant and animal
species and communities in relation to
climate variability and change
Dynamic vegetation modeling of climate
change impacts on forest ecosystems,
biodiversity and adaptation
Impact of climate change on mitigation
potential, carbon sinks and adaptation
Assessment of Adaptation practices,
strategies and policies
6. Policy Analysis Research and
Support for Climate Negotiations