Climate Change, Coastlines and
Conservation
Critical Concerns in
South Florida?
Contents
•
•
•
•
Greenhouse gas emissions
Climate Challenges
Interrelated Impacts
Concepts for the Comprehensive Plan
Ana Puszkin-Chevlin, Ph.D.
Sustainability Officer, Delray Beach
Basic Climate Change Science
Causes of the Global Warming
Modernization
increases GHG
GHG Emission by Sector in
South Florida 2009
Residential
28%
Transporation
45%
Commercial
26%
Industrial
1%
CO2 concentrations reached over 400
parts per million in 2015
South Florida produces 64 million metric
tons annually
New Comp Plan create a
New Vision
Future Land
Use
Transportation
Infrastructure
Coastal
Element
Conservation
Sustainability and Resiliency
Open Space
Climate Challenges
Rising Land Temperatures & Declining Air Quality
Sea level Rise & Ocean Acidification
Precipitation Variability & Storm Intensity
Saltwater Intrusion
Heat Waves & Air Quality
3º to 7º Increase in Average Temperatures by the end of
the century
Summer Heat index will
increase 10º to 25º
• Heart & Stroke
• Asthma & Allergy
• Violence
Health
Impact
Economic
• Rising Energy demand & cost
• Rising public sector costs
• Changing commodities
Tourism
Built
Environment
• Change in
Materials
• Faster degradation
Species &
Habitat
migration
• Agriculture & Food
Supply
• Loss in Diversity
• Invasives
• Fewer snowbirds
• Shorter “season”
• Seasonal depopulation
Sea level Rise
How much?? Approximately 7 inches by 2030 and up to 2
feet by mid-century
Sea Level Rise
In Southeast Florida
Inundation Projections for
South Florida
today
7 inches
2030
24 inches
2060
36 inches
2100
King Tides are the Bellwether
Current Delray Beach
Bathtub Model -- 2ft Sea Level Rise
Bathtub Model --4 Feet Sea Level Rise
Not Simply a Coastal Issue
Rising Water Table and Limited Soil Storage Capacity
Diminishes Capacity of Wet and Dry Retention Areas
More Intense Hurricanes and
Storm Surges
 Warmer Oceans will
intensify hurricanes
 A 1°C (1.8°F)
increases water vapor
by about 7%.
Precipitation Variability
“…..Some studies suggest the region will be wetter, while others project 20
percent less rainfall.
….the intensity and timing of rainfall may also change, which could lead to
more frequent droughts and floods.”
Source: South Florida Water Management District
Florida’s Plumbing System
1400 miles of Levees & Canals
200 Water Control Features
18 Pumping Stations
Limited Canal Capacity
Inland Flooding
Wetter Wets
Wetter Wets
 Storm Water System will
meet capacity & Soil
Saturation
 No way to drain coastal
areas
 Longer time to drain inland
areas
22.2 inches of rain (A once in 1000-year event),
Jan. 10, 2014, Boynton Beach, FL
 Too much run-off
 Ineffective aquifer recharge
 Estuary salinity levels are
impacted
 Degrade water quality
Drier Droughts
Natural
Habitat
• Loss in Species Diversity
• Habitat Shift
Economy
Recreation
Life safety
• Agriculture
• Food Supply
• Manufacturing
• Tourism
• Golf Courses
• Swimming Pools
• Boating
• Water contamination
• Wildfires
• Sinkholes
Saltwater Intrusion
Statewide the number of well meeting water quality standards has
decreased by approximately 8% since 2010
Saltwater Intrusion
Explanation
Public Water Wells
Quality of Life Impacts
Impacts of Built Environment
Taxable Values at Risk
Sea Level Rise
One Foot
Two Foot
Three Foot
Broward County
$403 Million
$1.8 Billion
$6,9 Billion
To
To
To
$828 million
$3.9 Billion
$12 Billion
$397 Million
to
$1,3 Billion
to
$1.9 Billion
$3.6 Billion
to
$4.5 Billion
Palm Beach County
$557 Million
Impacts to Economy
Impacts on Natural
Environment
Impacts to Health
SOLUTIONS=Opportunity
A Paradigm for the
Comp Plan
Resiliency
Sustainability
Vertical & Horizontal
Integration
Future Land
Use
Transportation
Infrastructure
Coastal
Element
Conservation
Sustainability and Resiliency
Open Space
Three Policy Approaches
Engineered
Hardening
$$$
Land Use
Regulations
Accept and
Prepare
Equity
Retrofit and Enhance
Infrastructure
•
•
•
•
•
Pumps
One way valves
Higher Seawalls
Raised Roadways
Modernized Utilities
Enhance Natural Defenses
 Healthy Dunes &
Beaches
 Mangrove Preservation
Living Shoreline
 Minimal Sea Walls
Elevate, Retreat or Reposition
Adaptation Action Areas
Build Up - Elevate
Set back or don’t
Rebuild
Transfer of
Development
Rights
Design for Intensive Water
Retention & Conservation
Float & Flood Proof
Acquisition & Conservation of
Open Space
 Buffer human settlement
 Allow for recharge
 Provide habitat for wildlife
Acceptable Loss &
Insurance
Rising Premiums
Pre-FIRM
Non-primary residents
Businesses
25% increases until
full-risk cost is
reached.
Everyone will need
to know their
Elevation and get an
elevation certificate
Emergency Management
Regional Planning (RCAP)
Regional Climate Action Plan
Boca Raton – Delray Beach- Boynton Beach
Interlocal Cooperation
Signed the Mayor pledge
Joint lobbying efforts
Federal recognition
Take-Away Points
• To address climate, we have to
both mitigate greenhouse gases
and adapt to impacts.
• Think long-term, act in the
present. Uncertainties about the
timing and magnitude climate
impacts should result in inaction.
• Educate and engage citizens to
drive policy and implementation
Coral Reefs
Between 25%-30% of
excess Co2 has been
absorbed in the oceans.
The oceans are 30% more
acidic than in preindustrial times.
Insured Risk is to High
 National Flood Insurance
Program is ill equipped
to address the growing
risk.
 Too much exposure
 Insufficient protective
standards
 Rising Premiums are
inevitable, forcing
property owners to take
preventive actions or
move.