Photo: Bruno Marty / IRD
Chapter 3
Observed and expected changes to the tropical
Pacific Ocean
Alexandre S Ganachaud, Alex Sen Gupta, James C Orr, Susan E Wijffels,
Ken R Ridgway, Mark A Hemer, Christophe Maes, Craig R Steinberg,
Aline D Tribollet, Bo Qiu and Jens C Kruger
‘The oceans are warming.’ (Bindoff et al. 2007)i
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101
Contents
102
Page
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 Use of climate simulations
103
104
3.2 Features of the tropical Pacific Ocean
3.2.1 Large-scale currents
3.2.2 Ocean temperature
3.2.3 Ocean eddies
3.2.4 Nutrient supply
3.2.5 Dissolved oxygen
3.2.6 Ocean acidification
3.2.7 Wave height
3.2.8 Sea level
3.2.9 Coastal circulation and island effects
105
105
110
120
123
127
129
131
135
137
3.3 Observed and projected changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean
3.3.1 Large-scale currents
3.3.2 Ocean temperature
3.3.3 Ocean eddies
3.3.4 Nutrient supply
3.3.5 Dissolved oxygen
3.3.6 Ocean acidification
3.3.7 Wave height
3.3.8 Sea level
3.3.9 Coastal circulation and island effects
141
141
143
149
150
157
159
163
164
167
3.4 Summary of present-day ocean features, and observed and
projected changes
169
3.5 Recommendations to reduce uncertainties in projecting future
changes to the tropical Pacific Ocean
3.5.1 SPCZ and ENSO
3.5.2 Integrating biogeochemical and physical models
3.5.3 Dynamical downscaling
3.5.4 Long-term observations and monitoring
172
172
173
173
173
References
176
Appendix
188
CHAPTER 3
3.1 Introduction
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3.2 Features of the tropical Pacific Ocean
3.2.1 Large-scale currents
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Box 3.2 Influence of the thermocline and mixed layer depth on
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Sea level (cm)
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1950
1960
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CHAPTER 3
3.2.9.1 Islands as obstacles to flow
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142
CHAPTER 3
(~ 28 Sv, Figure 3.27) (1 Sv = 1 Sverdrup = 106 m3 per second) are -0.5 to -1 Sv (3–5%) in
2035, -2 Sv (9%) under B1 in 2100 and -4.5 Sv (18%) under A2 in 2100. A vertical section
along the equator shows that just below the SEC the eastward EUC is projected to
move progressively upwards by about 10 m under B1 and A2 in 2035 and B1 in 2100,
and then by 20 m under A2 in 2100 (Figure 3.27). The eastward EUC is also expected
to increase in strength and transport over the 21st century (Figure 3.27), reducing the
depth to which the SEC penetrates.
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through the various processes that supply nutrients discussed below. They will also
affect the dispersal of larvae and connectivity among populations123. Changes to the
EUC may have consequences because of the important role of this undercurrent in
the transport of iron, sourced from the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent, to the
HDVWHUQ DQG FHQWUDO 3DFLÀF124, where iron concentrations limit primary productivity
(Chapter 4). Therefore, changes to the depth and strength of the EUC may also have
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3.3.2 Ocean temperature
3.3.2.1 Observed changes
As a result of its large heat capacity, the ocean has absorbed most of the additional
heat due to recent global warming – about 30 times more anthropogenic heat has
entered the ocean than the atmosphere since the 1960s125. Globally, SST is estimated
to have warmed ~ 0.67°C from 1901 to 2005126,QWKH3DFLÀFEDVLQZDUPLQJRI667RI
1 to 1.5°C has occurred at the western coastal boundary south of the equator and in
the east, north of the equator, during the past 50 years127,128.
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Ocean has not been straightforward. For example, ENSO has accounted for ~ 30% of
the variability (excluding the seasonal cycle) during the past 100 years, with ~ 10%
attributable to global warming127,129, and the remaining ~ 60% being due to decadal
and other modes of variability. But the warming trend is conspicuous, even below
the surface – it has been detected in all oceans and at increasing depths since the
1950s125,130–132.
Over the past 50 years, the water column between the surface and about 200 m in
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intuitively, south of 8°N, a consistent and broad-scale cooling has occurred in the
central and lower thermocline that extends south to at least 25°S (Figure 3.28), which
is most pronounced at around 200 m in the equatorial region. This cooling appears
to be related to changes in the surface winds that can raise the thermocline. Despite
the addition of heat to the system, the upward displacement of the strongest vertical
temperature gradient associated with the thermocline leads to net cooling133.
143
CHAPTER 3
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3.3.2 Ocean temperature
3.3.2.1 Observed changes
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143
160°E
Transport (Sv)
a)
b)
180°
160°W
140°W
120°W
100°W
180°
160°W
140°W
120°W
100°W
-15
-20
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-30
Transport (Sv)
50
40
30
20
Depth (m)
c)
140
160
180
200
160°E
0
d)
20
40
Depth (m)
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-10
-5
0
5
10
Change in current speed (cm per second)
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144
CHAPTER 3
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20°S
10°S
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0°
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Depth (m)
200
400
600
800
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3.3.2.2 Projected changes
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146
CHAPTER 3
a)
140°E
0
160°E
180°
160°W
140°W
Depth (m)
100
200
300
400
b)
20°S
10°S
0°
10°N
20°N
0
c)
20°S
1.5
2
10°S
0°
10°N
20°N
Depth (m)
100
200
300
400
-1
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0
0.5
1
2.5
3
Warming (oC)
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Ocean feature
1980–1999
Mean equatorial SEC
transport (Sv)
(160°E–130°W)
Strength of SECC in upper
50 m* (cm.s-1)
SECC zonal component
isotach* 5 cm per second
2035
2100
28
B1
26–28
(-5%)
A2
26–29
(-3%)
B1
25–27
(-9%)
A2
22–25
(-18%)
6.20
4.9–6.5
(-8%)
3.9–6.2
(-18%)
3.2–5.7
(-28%)
0–5.1
(-60%)
186°E
(2°W)
184°E
(3°W)
181°E
(6°W)
174°E
(13°W)
187°E
-3.26 to -3.06 -3.24 to -3.08
(-5%)
(-5%)
-3.23 to -2.91 -3.20 to -2.73
(-8%)
(-10%)
Zonally averaged zonal
windstress* (10 -2 Nm-2)
(2oS to 2oN)
-3.3
Pacific basin SST (°C)**
27.4
28.0–28.2
(+0.7)
28.0–28.2
(+0.7)
28.6–29.0
(+1.4)
29.6–30.1
(+2.5)
29.6
30.3–30.5
(+0.7)
30.4–30.6
(+0.8)
30.9–31.3
(+1.5)
32.0–32.5
(+2.6)
29°C Warm Pool area***
(x 106 km2)b
7
20–26
(+230%)
22–27
(+250%)
36–46
(+480%)
58–65
(+770%)
Warm Pool salinity frontc
~ 166°E
Maximum Warm Pool
temperatures (°C)a,**
166°E–172°E 166°E–169°E
167°E–172°E 170°E–179°E
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Unlikely
0%
148
Somewhat likely
29%
66%
Likely
Very likely
90% 100%
CHAPTER 3
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120°E
140°E
160°E
180°
160°W
140°W
120°W
20°N
10°N
0°
10°S
20°S
30°S
33.5
34
34.5
35
35.5
36
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3.3.3 Ocean eddies
3.3.3.1 Observed changes
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3.3.4.1 Observed changes
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150
CHAPTER 3
a)
120°E
140°E
160°E
180°
160°W
140°W
20°N
10°N
0°
10°S
20°S
1992–1997
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20°N
10°N
0°
10°S
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1998–2002
c)
20°N
10°N
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20°S
2003–2008
0
5
10
15
Sea surface height, cm (RMS)
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152
CHAPTER 3
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CHAPTER 3
B1 2035
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20°N
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0
10
20
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30°S
20°S
10°S
0°
10°N
20°N
30°N
15
10
5
0
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CHAPTER 3
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0°
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20°S
B1 2100
c)
A2 2100
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20°N
10°N
0°
10°S
20°S
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-20
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5
20
40
30
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3.3.5 Dissolved oxygen
3.3.5.1 Observed changes
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0
Depth (m)
250
500
100
750
1000
1960
Oxygen concentration (ȝmol per kg)
200
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
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3.3.5.2 Projected changes
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CHAPTER 3
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CHAPTER 3
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10°S
0°
10°N
20°N
0
20°N
0°
10°S
Depth (m)
200
10°N
400
600
800
20°S
1000
Observed (1994)
0
20°N
0°
10°S
200
Depth (m)
10°N
400
600
800
20°S
1000
3URMHFWHG$
0
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Depth (m)
200
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400
600
800
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1000
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0
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20°N
200
400
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20°N
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400
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CHAPTER 3
3.3.7 Wave height
3.3.7.1 Observed changes
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CHAPTER 3
a)
Sea level (cm)
2
1
0
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1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
b)
Sea level (cm)
6
4
2
0
Year
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CHAPTER 3
a)
180
Sea level (cm)
140
100
60
20
0
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1950
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2000
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Year
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168
CHAPTER 3
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170
CHAPTER 3
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Ocean
feature
Currents
Observed
changes
South Pacific gyre
has strengthened
2035
B1
A2
B1
SEC decreases at the equator; EUC becomes shallower; SECC
decreases and retracts westward in the upper 50 m
+0.6 to +0.8°C
Ocean
+0.6 to 1°C
temperature
since 1950
at 80 m
Equatorial
upwelling
Eddy
activity
A2
Projected to increase significantly over the entire region
Sea surface
temperature
Warm Pool
2100
+0.7 to +0.8°C
+0.4 to +0.6°C
+1.2 to +1.6°C
+2.2 to +2.7°C
+1.0 to +1.3°C
+1.6 to +2.8°C
Warmer and fresher
Extends eastward; water warms and becomes fresher, and area of warmest waters
increases
Decreased
Integral transport 9°S–9°N remains unchanged
No measurable
changes
Probable variations in regions where major oceanic currents change
Nutrient
supply
Decreased slightly Decrease due to increased stratification and shallower mixed layer, with a possible
in two locations
decrease of up to 20% under A2 by 2100
Dissolved
oxygen
Expansion of lowoxygen waters
Possible decrease due to lower oxygen intake at high latitudes
Possible increase near the equator due to decreased remineralisation
Aragonite saturation (Ω) projected to continue to decrease significantly
¾ Ω decreased
from 4.3 to 3.9
n/a
Ω ~ 3.3
Ω ~ 3.0
Ω ~ 2.4
Ocean
¾ Ω horizon rises
acidification
from 600 to
560 m
n/a
~ 456 m
n/a
~ 262 m
n/a
~ 7.98
n/a
~ 7.81
¾ pH decreased
from 8.14 to 8.08
Waves
Decreased in far
west Pacific; no
data elsewhere
Sea level
+6 cm
since 1960
Slight increase (up to 10 cm) in swell wave height; patterns
depend on ENSO and tropical cyclones
Projected to rise significantly
Island
effects
Not observed
*
+8 cm
+18 to +38 cm
+23 to +51 cm
**
+20 to +30 cm
+70 to +110 cm
+90 to +140 cm
Probable; undocumented
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Very low
0% 5%
Low
Medium
33%
High
66%
Very high
95% 100%
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3.5 Recommendations to reduce uncertainties in projecting future
changes to the tropical Pacific Ocean
3.5.1 SPCZ and ENSO
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172
CHAPTER 3
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174
CHAPTER 3
References
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186
Appendix 3.1 CM1P3 models
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Model
Oceanic
model
Oceanic
resolution
VC
BCCR BCM2.0
MICOM2.8
1.5° x 1.5°(0.5°) L35
RHO
MP
KT, KPP
Atmospheric
resolution
FC
Forcing
Reference
T63 L31
N
ALL -O
208
CNRM CM3
OPA8.1
2°(0.5°) x 2° L31
Z
GM, TKE
T63 L45
N
ALL -O
209
CSIRO Mk3.0
MOM2.2
0.84° x 1.875° L31
Z
GM*, BL, PP
T63 L18
N
-
210
CSIRO Mk3.5
MOM2.2
0.84° x 1.875° L31
Z
GM*, BL, PP, V, KT
T63 L18
N
-
210
GFDL CM2.0
OM3P4
1°(1/3°) x 1° L50
Z
GM*, BL, BBL-BD, KPP
2.5° x 2° L24
N
ALL
211
IPSL CM4
OPA
2° x 2° (1°) L31
Z
GM, BBL-BD, EVD, TKE
2.5° x 3.75° L19
N
ALL -O
212
COCO3.3
1.4°(0.5°) x 1.4° L43
H
GM, NK, BBL-NS, EVD
T42 (2.81° x 2.81°) L20
N
ALL
213
MIROC Hires
COCO3.3
0.19° x 0.28° L47
H
GM, NK, BBL-NS, EVD
T106 (1.12° x 1.12°) L56
N
ALL
213
MIUB ECHO-G
HOPE-G
2.8° x 2.8° (0.5°) L20 Z
PP, EVD
T30 (3.75° x 3.75°) L19
HF
ALL
214
MRI CGCM2.3
Bryan-Cox
2.0°(0.5°) x 2.5° L23
Z
GM
T42 L30
HFM
ALL-O
215
NCAR CCSM3
POP
1.1°(0.27°) x 1.1° L40
Z
GM, KPP, NO-BBL
T85 L26
N
ALL
216
NCAR PCM1
POP
2/3°(0.5°) x 2/3° L32 Z
GM, KPP, NO-BBL
T42 L18
N
ALL
217
UKMet HadCM3
Bryan-Cox
1.25° x 1.25° L20
GM*, V, KT, PP
2.75° x 3.75°L19
N
ALL
218, 219
Z
187
CHAPTER 3
MIROC Medres
Vulnerability
of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture
to Climate Change
Edited by Johann D Bell, Johanna E Johnson and Alistair J Hobday
3
Vulnerability
of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture
to Climate Change
Edited by Johann D Bell, Johanna E Johnson and Alistair J Hobday
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