What is the green economy? Is it good or bad for poor men and women? A CAFOD POLICY DISCUSSION BRIEF FOR RIO+20 MAY 2012 The Rio+20 conference has two themes, the headliner of which is “a green economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication”1. Green growth, climate-resilient growth, and low carbon development have also become buzz words among policymakers in most institutions – notably the OECD, the G20 and the World Bank – as well as at the national level. Why are these concepts so appealing to policy makers? Can they be as good as they sound? And how do the inherent approaches to managing the economy and its social and environmental impacts differ, if at all? As always with new universally popular buzz words there is some fuzziness that can mask important divergences. This brief aims to unpick differences in approaches to the green economy in order to identify which of them really matter for concrete changes that will make the green economy work for poor men and women. 1 The other is the institutional framework for sustainable development, see http://www.uncsd2012.org/rio20/ 1 1. Is the green economy about green growth? One of the main differences between the definitions employed by the various protagonists is the presence or absence of the word “growth”. The role of growth in the green economy is one of the most highly contested elements, but arguably something of an unhelpful distraction. On one side of the argument are those that emphasize the finite nature of the earth’s resources and therefore the need to put an end to ever-increasing consumption and production, and instead turn to other forms of progress. 2 At the other end of the spectrum are most policy-makers who see the green economy as an opportunity for new sources of growth and who are optimistic about the ability of technology to delink increased growth from its environmental impacts. These groups frequently argue that, in fact, growth will be necessary to finance the needed investment in technology and shifts in production that greening the economy will require3. Growth is quite an abstract concept, and it is perhaps more useful to think of the diverse nature and the purposes of growth to find a way around this apparent deadlock. Growth is an increase in consumption or production of goods and services. It encompasses diverse activities that can have little, no or even positive environmental impacts. Some of these might contribute to progress, development or increased wellbeing. For example increased consumption of those whose basic needs are not met would be considered progress by most. On the other hand, increasing the competitive consumption of luxury goods among the rich would only be considered progress by a few. Growth generally does not occur only through increased economic activity, but in structural and technological shifts in 2 New Economics Foundation, Growth isn't possible, January 2010 Boykoff, M., 16 January 2012, Economies must grow for the climate change fight. The Guardian Newspaper 3 2 The role of growth in the green economy is one of the most highly contested elements, but arguably something of an unhelpful distraction. that activity – some growth is then likely, even in rich countries, as part of greening the economy. To say that we want no growth or growth only in certain countries ceases to make sense in these contexts. Besides, it is hard to conceive how policies to curtail overall growth could be formulated. Whilst planetary boundaries are real and must be respected, it is not clear that “no growth” will be any more desirable than the increased overall growth sought by growth optimists. Reducing growth in low-cost rural renewable energy technologies is as undesirable as increasing growth in unnecessary, highlypolluting activities, such as short-haul leisure air travel. Dealing in meaningless growth aggregates is unhelpful. What we want is some sectors to do better, some sectors to do less, most to do greener. Similarly, we want some to consume more, some to consume less, most to consume differently. As usual, it’s not so simple – as more or less growth. It seems that our key challenge is how to shift from an economic system based on the notion of unlimited growth to one that is both ecologically sustainable and socially just. No growth is not the answer. Qualitative Growth, Fritjof Capra and Hazel Henderson, Outside Insights, ICAEW, October 2009 THE POLITICS OF GREEN GROWTH Perhaps the reason the growth debate is so polarized, is not only that it divides different schools of economic thought (enough in itself) but also because the debate is complicated by politics. The persistence of growth in policy rhetoric is unsurprising considering the context of the debate. In the wake of the global economic crisis, governments are scrambling for growth to impress credit markets and to reassure populations faced with unemployment and hardship. In addition, countries are keen to consolidate their own potential wins – and avoid potential losses – from a shift to a green global economy. For example, it is in industrialised countries interest to be optimistic about the role of technology in the green economy. Climate Change Mitigation Technology Patenting is highly concentrated in 6 rich countries: Japan, USA, 3 Dealing in meaningless growth aggregates is unhelpful. What we want is some sectors to do better, some sectors to do less, most to do greener. Germany, France, United Kingdom and Korea 4. They are keen to promote their high-tech services and manufacturing sectors and to consolidate their leadership in this area. Emerging economies, on the other hand, are keen to safeguard their own right to grow and to develop their economies. They also want to use the shift to develop new, high value added activities, not simply to become export targets for richer countries technology exports. Together with developing countries, they are keen that a green economy will not simply reinforce existing patterns and inequalities. Developing countries have had only a limited presence in the green economy debate so far. The focus has been largely on compensating them for any costs the shift might involve. Again, this reflects politics – developing countries are keen to emphasize the responsibility of industrialised economies to green their industries, as the biggest contributors to climate change. However, this has meant the role of reducing poverty in green economy debates is undervalued and under-explored. It also means the specific needs, and indeed contributions of, poor countries in greening their own economies has received too little attention. Although the rhetorical impasse around growth looks set to remain, there is a surprising consensus on both sides that can be use to progress a more constructive debate. There is a consensus that economies need to: Become more environmentally sound Become more stable Become better at meeting the needs of the poorest Become better at generating jobs5. Looked at from this perspective, the growth dilemma becomes more manageable and a policy approach that can accommodate growth optimists and pessimists emerges. CAFOD believes that this should focus on: 1. Pursuing and measuring real objectives The assumption that growth is a tool that automatically achieves broader objectives outlined above, is recognised as 4 Ghafele and Gibert, A changing Climate: Statistical Evidence of the Intellectual Property Landscape in Clean Technologies, Said Business School, University of Oxford, October 2011, http://works.bepress.com/roya_ghafele/5 5 See for example: http://www.un.org/ga/econcrisissummit/ 4 There is a consensus that policy makers need to focus on real objectives, supported by better measures of progress. false, whether or not you are a growth optimist or pessimist. There is a consensus that policy makers need to focus on real objectives, supported by better measures of progress so that policy makers can assess their success by things other than an increase in GDP6. 2. Taking greater account of environmental costs There is a consensus that traditional approaches to economic policy have failed to adequately factor in environmental costs. There are multiple proposals for tools to better factor these costs into economic decisions: Carbon pricing Green accounting and better environmental reporting for companies Environmental taxes and border measures Environmental standards and regulations Whatever combination of policies is chosen according to different economic, social and institutional contexts, it is important to have a stable regulatory framework that sends a clear signal that environmental costs will bear real economic consequences. It is important that international cooperation on these measures exists so that they are not used to unfairly advantage domestic industries. It is also critical that such measures do not mean that natural resources simply become traded and valued only as economic assets, potentially undermining rights, access and ownership of local communities and particularly of poor men and women. 3. Incentive structures for greener production and consumption Even with the right regulatory framework, is unlikely that markets by themselves will deliver the necessary shift to the green economy. High upfront costs and risks mean that subsidies and other public support, such as mechanisms to manage risk, will be required for fledging green industries. Conversely, support needs to be withdrawn from the mostpolluting industries. Other policies can also help boost green production, for example green procurement policies or boosting public support to relevant research and development. Consumers also need incentives to go green, for example public education and environmental labelling. 6 See for example: http://www.oecd.org/document/32 /0,3746,en_2649_201185_47823328_1_1_1_1,00.html 5 It is critical that such measures do not mean that natural resources simply become traded and valued only as economic assets.. Recognition of an emerging consensus around these policies should not lead us to underestimate real differences between parties and real hurdles to a global green economy. Regulations and interventions by the state will always face criticisms of increased costs and market distortions. In the short term there will be trade-offs between greening the economy and maximising competitiveness and growth. Policy makers will need to overcome real political pressure to surmount these and must work together internationally to ensure that green protectionism or opportunism do not prevent real progress. 6 2. The Real Green Economy Debate The most neglected part of the green policy debate is the necessity to reduce poverty and address development gaps as a critical part of greening the economy. UNEP’s definition of a green economy is “one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities.” It is then a holistic concept encompassing economic, social and environmental development and emphasizes the complementarities of these objectives. The OECD’s green growth strategy name checks all three elements too, but has a very different approach. For example, the social dimension is given far less weight. Its consultation paper makes it clear that: “It is narrower in scope, entailing an operational policy agenda that can help achieve concrete, measurable progress at the interface of the economy and the environment.” It also envisages that poor countries and poor men and women might need measures “in parallel” to be “compensated” for a move towards green growth – rather than emphasizing the complementarity of the three objectives7. The need to make poverty reduction and social development an integral part of any new development paradigm is important for three main reasons: Efficiency: Making growth more efficient at reducing poverty and supporting social dimensions of well-being is critical to greening the economy. Even if you believe in the “rising tide” and that using the benefits of growth to compensate losers and finance social progress is the best route, it is clear that progress is more easily achieved if societies are not too unequal. It is also possible that tackling extreme inequality can help to make the tide rise faster and more steadily8. Pockets of 7 OECD, Towards Green Growth a summary for policy makers”, May 2011, p5, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/32/49/12345.pdf 8 Ramcharan, R. (2010) „Inequality is Untenable‟, in Finance and Development’, September 2010, pp.24-25, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC. 7 The most neglected part of the green policy debate is the necessity to reduce poverty and address development gaps as a critical part of greening the economy. poverty, either geographical or social, can have very important direct impacts on how green an economy is. It is well documented that poor men and women can resort to environmentally damaging coping and diversification strategies in face of hardship9. Conversely, poor men and women are active in sectors such as agriculture, which can play a key role in environmental protection and mitigating climate change. Less well-explored is the impact of a lack of effective demand among these groups in disseminating green goods and services to a significant proportion of the world’s population. Whilst poverty persists, market mechanisms will not deliver technological innovations in green goods and services to poor men and women. Effectiveness: Even if historical responsibility for climate change is low for developing countries, they do and will increasingly contribute to environmental degradation, as they develop new productive capacities and consumers become better off. As well as this risk in not developing solutions to suit their contexts and needs, failing to consider them in the green economy debate will also result in a lost opportunity. As many developing countries still need to develop key industries and infrastructure services, including energy, there is an opportunity for them to leap-frog “dirty” development. Political viability: Largely northern led debates to date have demonstrated that unless developing countries participate in the discussion, green economy debates will mainly deal with industrialised countries interests and needs – for example promoting exports of green goods and services. This is not politically viable over the longterm and it will simply reinforce existing inequalities and instabilities. The needs of developing countries in adapting to the double challenge of tackling climate change and reducing poverty will need to be more central to the debate. 9 For example, small-scale deforestation (although richer groups are by far more responsible for deforestation rates), see: Purnamasari , R. (2010)Dynamics of small-scale deforestation in Indonesia: examining the effects of poverty and socio-economic development In: XIII World Forestry Congress ; Unasylva (FAO) , v. 61 (= no. 234-235) Perlis, A. (ed.) / FAO, Rome (Italy). Forestry Dept. , 2010, p. 14-20 8 The needs of developing countries in adapting to the double challenge of tackling climate change and reducing poverty will need to be more central to the debate. 3. What shifts in the approach to the Green Economy are needed? Moving to a green economy debate that capitalises on the complementarities of social, environmental and economic development and that consequently pays greater attention to the needs of developing countries would look very different from the current approach of organisations, such as the OECD. Whilst these focus on changing habits of wealthy consumers, promoting exports of hi-tech goods and services and subsidising fledgling green industries, the context of developing countries, means that the following approaches should be more prevalent: FOCUS ON AND INVEST IN KEY SECTORS SUCH AS AGRICULTURE Developing country economies are largely based on sectors that are currently highly polluting, but which can make significant contributions to stemming climate change, such as agriculture, forests, tourism and low-grade manufactures. Agriculture alone currently contributes thirty per cent of global emissions10, but with the right investment and policy framework (based on low-input and smallholder agriculture) could in fact reduce green house gas emissions11. Especially neglected are small-scale and informal enterprises within developing country economies, even though they are most numerous and tend not to observe the highest environmental standards. TRANSFERRING ISN’T SELLING: BETTER SUPPORT FOR TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT The technology transfer debate has tended to emphasize the importance of rigorous intellectual property protection regimes to enable firms to take technology overseas and the usefulness of liberalisation of environmental goods and services to help disseminate that technology. This leaves developing countries in 10 World Development Report 2008, Agriculture and Development, World Bank 11 Niggli et al (2009) Low Greenhouse Gas Agriculture: Mitigation and Adaptation Potential of Sustainable Farming Systems, FAO, Rome 9 Developing country economies are largely based on sectors that are currently highly polluting, but which can make significant contributions to stemming climate change, such as agriculture, forests, tourism and low grade manufactures. the position of recipients or importers of technology, yet it is imperative that they develop their own to ensure that technologies appropriate to their contexts are developed and to give them a greater stake in the green economy. Supporting genuine technology transfer will require: encouraging joint research and development, allowing governments to use investment strategies that facilitate technology transfer, allowing governments to adopt the right balance between fostering innovation and promoting dissemination of technology in their intellectual property regimes. It will also involve developed countries resisting using the green economy debate to unfairly advantage their own green industries, and to allow developing countries to develop their own. SUPPORTING DEVELOPING COUNTRY GOVERNMENTS As has been seen, even in the case of industrialised countries, governments will need increased finances and administrative capacity to support the move to a green economy. Low income countries have extremely limited government capacity, yet face the more difficult double challenge of greening their economies whilst promoting their structural transformation and reducing poverty. Financial and technical help in meeting these challenges will be essential, as well as a supportive international policy framework. Developing country governments will need different policy tools in promoting the green transition as their economic contexts are very different – with imperfect markets, high transaction costs, low levels of domestic demand and financial and capital constraints. For example, consumer incentives and education are much less helpful when the majority of the population has difficulty meeting its basic needs. Most developing country governments will lack resources to subsidise development of green industries, and thus might need other tools such as procurement and trade policies to develop them. They might also find it beneficial to require partnerships, licensing or other forms of technology transfer from firms investing in their economies. 10 Developing country governments will need different policy tools in promoting the green transition as their economic contexts are very different.. Sectoral approaches to key developing country sectors such as tourism are also required. This sector is currently dominated by global firms that can have a devastating environmental impact and provide few local economic benefits. Boosting sustainable tourism and ensuring that local firms and workers benefits will be a valuable investment for developing country governments, provided initial support and policy cooperation to tackle behaviour of global firms can be assured. Similarly in the important agriculture sector, there is a need to tackle the dominance of large agri-business firms that promote high-input agriculture and can have a negative effect on the development of sustainable small-scale agriculture, coupled with a need for increased support – both technological and financial – to smallscale production, which will provide environmental, social and economic benefits. In general there is a need for greater cooperation between developed and developing countries in information sharing so that both sides can learn what works in different contexts and share innovation; in policy coherence so that harmful market practices and distortions are overcome; and in financial support so that key sectors can be “greened” to the benefit of all. 11 In general, there is a need for greater information sharing so that both sides can learn what works in different contexts and share innovations 4. Conclusions and recommendations The green economy debate needs: A more grown-up approach to growth: That goes beyond the arguments of growth pessimists and optimists that instead identifies where and how growth needs to happen and how to support these shifts. This will include new measures of progress that deconstruct, as well as complement GDP. A complementary approach to social, economic and environmental development: There is increasing consensus that growth policies cannot be formulated isolated from their environmental impact. The green economy debate also needs to take equal account of their social and poverty impacts if it is to be efficient and effective at stemming environmental degradation whilst delivering real progress. More attention to the developing country green economy agenda: so far the green economy debate is biased towards the needs and interests of industrial economies. Developing countries and their specific needs must become more central to the green economy debate, including a focus on key sectors, a new approach to technology transfer and supporting developing country governments. For further information, contact: Christina Weller Lead Economic Analyst CAFOD Email: [email protected] 12 The green economy debate needs to take equal account of social and poverty impacts if it is to be efficient and effective at stemming environmental degradation whilst delivering real progress.
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