TRI’s Goals
Transform Toyota’s Ability to Improve:
• Safety
• Access
• Quality of Life
• Discovery of New Materials
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Safety
~1,250,000People/Yr.Worldwide(~17/100k/Yr.)
~30,000People/Yr.intheUS(~10/100k/Yr.)(~7/Gkm)
~5,000People/Yr.inJapan(~5/100k/Yr.)(~8/Gkm)
About1Fatalityper100millionmiles.
Guardian
2
Access
Chauffeur
3
Quality of Life
?
?
4
TRImaterialsdiscoveryprogram
• Upto$10M/yeartotalexternalresearchbudget
• Programstart:February,2017
• Thelongtermvisionistoaidinthedevelopmentoftrulyemissions
freeandcarbonneutralvehiclesthroughnewmaterialsdiscovery.
• Ouraimistomergeadvancedcomputationalmaterialsmodeling,
newsourcesofexperimentaldata,machinelearning,andartificial
intelligencetodramaticallyacceleratethematerialsdesignprocess.
• Whiletheapplicationsarefocusedonfutureenergysystems,the
primaryaimistodeveloptoolsandprocessesforacceleratingthe
design,development,anddeploymentofnewmaterials.
CommonthemeswiththewholeTRIportfolio
• Applications
• TRIisaboutmobilityandtransportationofthefuture.
• Advancesinenergyopenotheropportunities– i.e.Li-ionhasenabledrobotics
• Longtermtrendsinindustry.
• Technicalthemes
•
•
•
•
•
Simulation
Highperformanceandcloudcomputing
Datascience
Machinelearning
Artificialintelligence
• Couplingsimulation,experiments,andrealworldtestingwillbecritical.
Materials
University
Guardian
Algorithms/
Learning
Sensor
Hardware
Robotics
Simulation
U
Infrastructure
UX
Data
Tools
Common
Driving
Software
Chauffeur
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Modes of Autonomy
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SAE Automated Driving Levels
Chauffeur
Level 5: Driver cedes control and may ignore environment – unlimited contexts
Autonomy never disengages
Level 4: Driver cedes control and may ignore environment – limited contexts
Autonomy never disengages
Level 3: Driver cedes control and may relax vigilance
Autonomy may disengage but provides a sufficiently comfortable transition time.
Level 2: Driver cedes control, but remains vigilant
Autonomy may disengage or need to be disengaged without warning.
Level 1: Primitive automation
Example: Cruise Control
Level 0: Human Control
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ThreeTypesofCollaboration
ExampleofSeriesAutonomy:DARPAARM-S(JPL)
DARPAApprovedforPublicRelease,DistributionUnlimited
PARALLELAUTONOMY:BRAINCOMPUTERINTERFACE
ARM+RPCollaboration
PM:GillPratt(DSO)in
collaborationwithJustin
Sanchez(BTO)
Performers:CMU/NREC
(Bagnell et.al.)+U.
Pittsburgh(Schwartzet.al.)
ThePromiseofCollaborativeAutonomy:
FirstEverBCIDoorOpening
ARM+RPCollaboration
PM:GillPratt(DSO)in
collaborationwithJustinSanchez
(BTO)
Performers:CMU/NREC(Bagnell
et.al.)+U.Pittsburgh(Schwartz
et.al.)
DARPAApprovedforPublicRelease,DistributionUnlimited
CHAUFFEUR VS. GUARDIAN
Aspect
Chauffeur
Fun + Love of Car
Decreased: car becomes Increased: allows fun driving at all skill level.
train
increases gratitude of car
Duty Cycle
100%
< 1% : only if accident imminent
Liability
Required
Competence
Manufacturer
Mostly Driver
All of Driving
Do No Harm
Development
Driver’s Skills
Guardian
All or Nothing: lives lost
Kaizen: lives saved soon
until done
Ignored
Utilized as much as possible
Note:TechnologySupportingGuardianAngel+Chaufferaresimilar
Handoff Problem ? Yes
No
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CHAUFFEUR VS. GUARDIAN
SAE Disengagement
Level
Never (all contexts)
5
Never (some contexts)
4
Adequate Time
3
No Waring – Driver Vigilance
2
Hybrid
Autonomy
Chauffeur
Toyota
1
Guardian
0
ABS
ASC
NAV
Side
Collision
Warn
Front
Collision
Warn
Collision
Avoidance
Braking
Lane
Departure
Warn
Lane
Departure
Prevention
Collision
Avoidance
Steering
Collision
Avoidance
Acceleration
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Why this is Hard
Needed Reliability Numbers
• About10MillionToyotacarsareproduced/yr.
• Eachcarlastsabout10years.About100MillionToyotacarsarein
service
• Eachcarisdrivenabout10thousandkm/yr.Toyotacarsaredriven
about1Trillionkmperyear.
• Onlyafewdefect-causedaccidents/yr.cancauseabrandcrisis
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Our Belief
1 Trillion miles / year
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19
RAND Analysis
Simple model: Coin flipping (Bernoulli process)
Drive N miles with X failures => failure rate = X/N
Confidence analysis based on a Gaussian approximation
Result: To estimate to within 20% of assumed rate
(1.09/100 million), with 95% confidence, requires ~ 8.8
billion miles.
846
Conclusion:
100 cars
24 hours/day = ~ 400
years
In U.S., 190 reported crash / 100 million miles
Google:
11 crashes, 1.3 million miles
Simulation
Simulator
Billions of km
Reference
Trajectories
Validation
Test Cars
With Professional
Drivers
Millions of Miles
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TRI – University of Michigan Research
•Any of these areas
– Materials proposals will also have separate RFP
Materials
•Synergistic with Stanford and MIT
University
Guardian
– http://aicenter.stanford.edu/
Algorithms
/ Learning
Sensor
Hardware
– http://toyota.csail.mit.edu/
Robotics
Simulation
U
Infrastructure
• $20+ M / 4 yr. available
UX
Data
Tools
– Will not obligate all in year 1
•Open to all size proposals (at least one
student/post doc, % of faculty effort, travel,
equipment, etc …)
Common
Driving
Software
Chauffeur
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Evaluation Criteria
•Innovation - Extent that concept is ambitious, novel,
transformational, and interdisciplinary
•Impact - Significant potential for future impact in the
areas of interest to TRI
•Approach - Effectiveness of the proposed work plan and
the proposed team, and possible engagement with TRI
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Intellectual Property
Intellectual Property Type
University IP
Terms
U-M offers TRI;
•
Commercial, Worldwide, NonExclusive, Royalty-Free, NonSublicensable License
•
First option to negotiate
Commercial, Exclusive, RoyaltyBearing, Sublicensable License
Joint IP
•
TRI IP
Jointly owned by U-M and TRI.
Each party may license others
without accounting to the other
party.
•
TRI has first option to negotiate
Commercial, Exclusive, RoyaltyBearing, Sublicensable License
TRI offers U-M
•
Non-Exclusive, Royalty-Free,
Non-Sublicensable License
solely for performance of
Collaborative Research Projects
during the period of
performance.
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Pre-Proposal Template (1 of 4)
Project Title: <your title here>
Personnel:
List departments of personnel involved. PI should be listed first. Include contact information.
TRI Thrust Area: Check one or more:
____ Self-Driving Cars (“Chauffeur”)
____ Enhanced Driving Safety (“Guardian”)
____ Indoor Mobility and Home Robotics
____ Materials Discovery
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Pre-Proposal Template (2 of 4)
Duration
Projects can have any duration between 1 and 4 years. Most projects will be 12 years. It is better to propose a 1 year pilot study than a half-baked 4 year
project.
Budget
A typical one-year project might include one PI and two students or postdocs
totaling $200k. A typical multi-year project might include several PIs with a
larger team of students, postdocs, and engineers, with a yearly budget of
$500k. Note: one-year projects that serve as a pilot project for a future longerduration project are encouraged. This should be 1-3 sentences in length.
Include approximate costs fully encumbered with indirects and benefits.
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Pre-Proposal Template (3 of 4)
Project Abstract – 1.5 page maximum
1) What problem do you aim to solve?
2) What are the limitations of current approaches?
3) What technical tools will you bring to bear?
4) How will you measure your progress?
5) How will you engage and have an impact on TRI?
Reference to up to two directly applicable publications are welcome; links to
a PDF should be provided. Other references, including references to other
projects are not necessary in this pre-proposal.
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Pre-Proposal Template (4 of 4)
Milestones and Deliveries - 0.5 page maximum
Briefly describe milestones with 2-4 per year. Deliverables
should include at least a final report, but may also include
software releases or data products either to TRI or as open
source. You will also be expected to participate in one
symposium/workshop per year.
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Proposal Process and Timeline
September 30, 2016: Pre-proposals submission deadline
Submit a brief pre-proposal* by September 30, 2016, by 5:00 pm to [email protected] using
the following file naming convention: PI first name_PI last name_date
(e.g., Jane_Smith_072116).
October 14, 2016: Select applicants will be invited to submit a full
proposal
November 11, 2016: Full proposals due
November 30, 2016: Announcement of selected proposals by
steering committee
January 2017: Projects start
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ThankYou!