China Market Access Disadvantage
JV-Varsity
Urban Debate League 2013-2014
Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 3
Glossary......................................................................................................................................... 4
1NC Shell
China Sphere of Influence Disadvantage 1NC (1/4) ................................................................... 5-9
Uniqueness
Cuba
Uniqueness: Cuba- China engaging Cuba now ............................................................................. 9
Mexico
Uniqueness: Mexico- Chinese Influence High ........................................................................ 10-12
Uniqueness: Mexico- United States Engagement Low ............................................................... 12
Answers to: United States Engagement with Mexico Durable ..................................................... 13
Venezuela
Uniqueness: Venezuela- China engaging now ......................................................................... 14-6
Uniqueness: Latin America - Chinese Influence High- ................................................................. 17
Latin America
Uniqueness: Latin America - Chinese Influence High .................................................................. 18
Answers to: United States Engagement with Latin America Durable........................................... 22
Links
Cuba
Link- US engagement with Cuba trade off with China .............................................................. 23-2
Link- Engagement with Cuba is a political symbol ....................................................................... 27
Link- Engagement with Cuba key to Chinese regional plan ......................................................... 28
Mexico
Link: Economic Engagement with Mexico crowds out China ....................................................... 29
Link: Modernizing Border with Mexico increases US engagement- commercial relations ........ 30-7
Link: Modernizing Border with Mexico increases US engagement- Trade ................................... 32
Answers to: United States Won’t Crowd out China from Mexico ................................................. 34
Venezuela
Link– Economic Engagement with Venezuela crowds out China ................................................ 36
Link: Economic Engagement with Latin America increases ties with US .................................... 38
Link: Increasing trade with Latin America shuts out China........................................................... 39
Latin America
Answers to: United States Won’t Crowd out China from Latin America .................................... 41-7
1
China Market Access Disadvantage
JV-Varsity
Urban Debate League 2013-2014
Impacts
Impact: Chinese Growth provide regional stability in Asia ........................................................... 44
Answers to: Latin America is not key to Chinese Growth........................................................ 49-40
Impact- Chinese Softpower.......................................................................................................... 51
Answers to: Chinese Softpower Fails .......................................................................................... 52
Answers To: Chinese Influence Bad ............................................................................................ 53
Turns case: Latin American Growth ............................................................................................ 54
Turns Case: Trade ....................................................................................................................... 55
AFFFIRMATIVE ANSWERS
Uniqueness
Non-Unique: United States Engagement in Latin America is Durable ......................................... 56
Links
Relations are Not Zero Sum – Trade & Economics ..................................................................... 57
Engagement with Latin America is not Zero Sum- Cooperation .................................................. 58
Engagement Bad
Chinese Engagement Bad - Environment .................................................................................... 59
Chinese Engagement Bad- Latin America Economic Growth ...................................................... 60
Chinese Engagement Bad- Latin American Government Stability .............................................. 61
Impacts
No Impact- Exports not key to Chinese Economy ........................................................................ 62
No Impact –CCP Collapse ........................................................................................................... 63
No Impact –CCP Collapse ........................................................................................................... 64
Answers to: Regional Stability Impact .......................................................................................... 65
No Impact: Chinese Soft Power Fails .......................................................................................... 66
No Impact: Chinese Can’t Use Soft Power .................................................................................. 67
2
China Market Access Disadvantage
JV-Varsity
Urban Debate League 2013-2014
Summary
The disadvantage argues that increasing the United States’ economic engagement in Latin
America will crowd out China from Latin American markets that are necessary for continued
Chinese economic growth. The major link story is that there is that there is a limited amount
of market share available in Latin America and efforts by the United States and China to
establish strong relations with countries in Latin America contribute to their market share.
The disad argues that this is a zero sum game, when the US wins new market share, China will
have to lose some market share. Economic growth in China is crucial to maintain the control
of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).over the country. Loss of control would result in
chaos across China and the larger region.
The file is organized by argument type and then by country. At the end of each argument
section are generic cards about Latin America that can be used in a debate against any
affirmative on the topic.
3
China Market Access Disadvantage
JV-Varsity
Urban Debate League 2013-2014
Glossary
Chinese Communist Party (CCP)- the only political party in China that controls the government,
military and media
Enrique Peña Nieto- President of Mexico, elected in 2012
Jeopardy- Danger of loss, harm, or failure.
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)- trade agreement between the United States,
Canada and Mexico which allowed goods to be traded between the countries without additional
import taxes
Narcotraffickers- people who smuggle illegal drugs across borders
Renminbi- Chinese currency, like their version of the dollar
soft power -a dynamic created by a nation whereby other nations seek to imitate that nation, become
closer to that nation, and align its interests accordingly.
Unparralled- Having no parallel or equal; exceptional
Western Hemisphere- North and South America and nearby islands
Rule of Law- authority and influence of law in society, especially as a constraint upon behavior,
including behavior of government officials
Maritime- an adjective that describes objects or activities related to the sea.
Trilateral- three sided
Zero Sum Game- A game in which the sum of the winnings by all the players is zero. In a zero-sum
game, a gain by one player must be matched by a loss by another player.
4
China Market Access Disadvantage
JV-Varsity
Urban Debate League 2013-2014
China Sphere of Influence Disadvantage 1NC (1/4)
China’s influence in Latin American trade is expanding now
Shaiken et al, Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley, 2013
[Harley, and Enrique Peters – Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And
Adrian Hearn – Centro de Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico.
China and the New Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico
Relations, 2013. Pg 7-8]
This paper highlights the reality that China has indeed integrated itself into North America in a
process beginning in 2001 with China’s adherence to the World Trade Organization. Before 2001,
both Mexico and the U.S. were increasing and deepening trade relations and regional
specializations within the parameters of NAFTA. Since 2001, however, this process has reversed
as a result of China’s massive trade volume with both the U.S. and Mexico.¶ The analysis
presented herein shows that China’s rapidly developing trade relationship with both Mexico and
the U.S. has had significant effects on each country’s respective trade dynamics. For instance,
today China is the second largest trading partner for both Mexico and the United States, falling
behind only the total intra-NAFTA trade volume. As we have seen from our examination of the top
twenty products imported by Mexico from the U.S. and China, the structure of trade in the region is
shifting significantly: for Mexico, its export share in the U.S. market has fallen sharply,
contrary to the trade growth of Asia, and particularly of China. As discussed previously, from
2000-2011 both the U.S. and Mexico endured substantial losses in their respective export
markets in the NAFTA region, particularly in regards to the manufacturing sector and in products
such as telecommunications equipment, electric power machinery, passenger motor vehicles, and
clothing accessories and garments, among many others. ¶ NAFTA, since its origins, has passed
through two distinct phases. During the first phase (1994-2000), the region was deeply integrated as
a result of trade, investment, and rules of origin in specific industrial sectors such as autopartsautomobiles (AA) and yarn-textile-garments (YTG). In this first phase, NAFTA evolved in accordance
with some of the predictions and estimations that we discuss in the literature survey. The region as a
whole grew in terms of GDP, trade, investment, employment, and wages, among other variables,
while intra-industry trade increased substantially. While some of the “gaps” between the U.S. and
Mexico were slowly closing, however, this was only true for a small portion of Mexico’s highly
polarized socioeconomic and territorial structure. In other words, even in Mexican sectors
highly integrated with NAFTA, the integration process did not allow for the promotion of
backward and forward linkages in Mexico. In the second phase (2000-…), NAFTA has shown a
deterioration of this process of integration in terms of investment and intra-industrial trade,
among other variables. During this time period, both Mexico and the United States have been on
the losing end of competitions with third-party countries, a topic only discussed somewhat in
debates on NAFTA (see the survey in part two of this paper).
5
China Market Access Disadvantage
JV-Varsity
Urban Debate League 2013-2014
China Sphere of Influence Disadvantage 1NC (2/4)
Chinese engagement with Latin America is high – increased US engagement will trade-off with
Chinese involvement in the region.
Watson 09 Professor of Strategy at National War College [Cynthia A. Watson, U.S. Responses to
China’s Growing Interests in Latin America: Dawning Recognition of a Changing Hemisphere, “Enter
the Dragon? China’s Presence in Latin America”,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdf]
The United States and China claim that each is serious about adopting the economic
philosophy that undergirds capitalism: economic growth is a net benefit for all, not a zero sum
game. If true, China, Latin America, and the United States benefit from the greater Chinese
engagement in this region because it creates competition. Pure economic theory, however, always
runs up against political philosophies, leading to trade conflicts, protectionism, and all-toooften a zero sum view based on the international relations theory of realpolitik: what’s good for my
adversary must be bad for me.
The risks of arousing realpolitik in the United States, particularly as the nation faces increased
frustration with the reality of the Middle East, is significant, probably more than the PRC
bargained for when it began engaging more with Latin America over the past decade. It appears
unlikely that Beijing will seriously accelerate its involvement in the region because of the
number of Congressional hearings, public conferences and assessments, and other warnings
alerting the United States to China having discovered Latin America. To accelerate its
involvement would risk the relatively strong relations with Washington at a time when other trade
problems and overall concerns about China’s growing power are already rising in the United States.
At the same time, Washington’s ability to focus equally on all areas of the world is not possible. With
U.S. interests directed elsewhere, it seems highly likely that Beijing will be able to maintain the
level of involvement in the region it already has, without Washington raising too great a ruckus.
Indeed, Beijing’s best outcome from its current balance of involvement in the area is probably going
to be the long-term development of trust and ties over several decades with the leaders of this region,
rather than immediately creating crucial, highly public ties between itself and Latin American leaders.
As so often appears true in the international system, probably the old tale of the tortoise and hare
applies here, where China’s biggest gain will be accomplished over a long time of getting to
know the region, rather than showing up repeatedly in the ‘rock star’ role which is too soon and too
rash for a long-term, stable set of ties. Washington seems likely to worry about the rock star
phenomenon, rather than attempting to manage the emergence of another state becoming a
long-term partner with its Latin American neighbors.
6
China Market Access Disadvantage
JV-Varsity
Urban Debate League 2013-2014
China Sphere of Influence Disadvantage 1NC (3/4)
Chinese lead in Latin American economies are vital to maintain China’s economic growth.
Arnson et al., writers for Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars,2009
(Cynthia Anderson, Mark Mohr, Riordan Roett, writers for Woodrow Wilson International Center for
Scholars, “Enter the Dragon? China’s Presence in Latin America”,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdf) (JN)
China’s role in Latin America is, above all, based on trade, despite U.S. concerns about China’s
military influence in Latin America. The major exception to this rule is Cuba, for which China
represents a political relationship as well as one based on economic interests. Although Venezuelan
authorities may also prefer that its relationship with China have political as well as economic
dimensions, it is not clear that China has the same expectations of its relationship with Venezuela. To
China, Latin America represents a significant source of the necessary natural resources that
will help China maintain its economic growth. Due primarily to trade with China, Latin America’s
trade volume grew from $2.8 billion in 1988 to $49 billion in 2005. Also, and as publicly announced,
China intends to surpass $180 billion in trade with Latin America by 2010, not only due to the
country’s need for natural resources, but also as a result of China’s intention to diversify and
expand its markets in the region. Thus, Latin America represents a substantial market for
Chinese goods.
7
China Market Access Disadvantage
JV-Varsity
Urban Debate League 2013-2014
China Sphere of Influence Disadvantage 1NC (4/4)
Sustained economic growth prevents social unrest that would collapse the ruling party – that
would cause great power war.
Kane, PhD in Security Studies from the University of Hull ,2001
[Thomas Kane, PhD in Security Studies from the University of Hull & Lawrence Serewicz, Autumn,
http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/01autumn/Kane.htm]
Despite China's problems with its food supply, the Chinese do not appear to be in danger of
widespread starvation. Nevertheless, one cannot rule out the prospect entirely, especially if the
earth's climate actually is getting warmer. The consequences of general famine in a country with
over a billion people clearly would be catastrophic. The effects of oil shortages and industrial
stagnation would be less lurid, but economic collapse would endanger China's political stability
whether that collapse came with a bang or a whimper. PRC society has become dangerously
fractured. As the coastal cities grow richer and more cosmopolitan while the rural inland provinces
grow poorer, the political interests of the two regions become ever less compatible. Increasing the
prospects for division yet further, Deng Xiaoping's administrative reforms have strengthened regional
potentates at the expense of central authority. As Kent Calder observes, In part, this change [erosion
of power at the center] is a conscious devolution, initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1991 to outflank
conservative opponents of economic reforms in Beijing nomenclature. But devolution has fed on
itself, spurred by the natural desire of local authorities in the affluent and increasingly powerful coastal
provinces to appropriate more and more of the fruits of growth to themselves alone.[ 49] Other social
and economic developments deepen the rifts in Chinese society. The one-child policy, for instance, is
disrupting traditional family life, with unknowable consequences for Chinese mores and social
cohesion.[ 50] As families resort to abortion or infanticide to ensure that their one child is a son, the
population may come to include an unprecedented preponderance of young, single men. If common
gender prejudices have any basis in fact, these males are unlikely to be a source of social stability.
Under these circumstances, China is vulnerable to unrest of many kinds. Unemployment or severe
hardship, not to mention actual starvation, could easily trigger popular uprisings. Provincial
leaders might be tempted to secede, perhaps openly or perhaps by quietly ceasing to obey
Beijing's directives. China's leaders, in turn, might adopt drastic measures to forestall such
developments. If faced with internal strife, supporters of China's existing regime may return to a
more overt form of communist dictatorship. The PRC has, after all, oscillated between
experimentation and orthodoxy continually throughout its existence. Spectacular examples include
Mao's Hundred Flowers campaign and the return to conventional Marxism-Leninism after the leftist
experiments of the Cultural Revolution, but the process continued throughout the 1980s, when the
Chinese referred to it as the "fang-shou cycle." (Fang means to loosen one's grip; shou means to
tighten it.)[ 51] If order broke down, the Chinese would not be the only people to suffer. Civil unrest
in the PRC would disrupt trade relationships, send refugees flowing across borders, and force
outside powers to consider intervention. If different countries chose to intervene on different
sides, China's struggle could lead to major war. In a less apocalyptic but still grim scenario,
China's government might try to ward off its demise by attacking adjacent countries.
8
China Market Access Disadvantage
JV-Varsity
Urban Debate League 2013-2014
Uniqueness: Cuba- China engaging Cuba now
[
] Chinese leading party is turning to Cuba to insure economic growth
Global Times, 2013
(6/2/2013, Global Times, “Senior CPC official looks to expansion of China-Cuba cooperation”,
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/786078.shtml#.Ube0__nvu9E)
A senior Communist Party of China (CPC) official said in Havana Saturday China was willing
to expand cooperation with Cuba in various fields to promote both countries' economic
development.
Cuba was the first Latin American country to establish diplomatic ties with China, Guo Jinlong, a
member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, said when he met Mercedes Lopez
Acea, vice president of the Cuban Council of State and first secretary of the Havana Provincial
Committee of the Cuban Communist Party (CCP).
Guo said the CPC was ready to maintain high-level exchanges with the CCP and share
experience in state governance and party building.
As twin cities and capitals, Beijing was willing to work jointly with Havana to deepen
cooperation and expand cultural and people-to-people exchanges, said Guo, who is also
secretary of the CPC Beijing Municipal Committee.
Lopez said the relationship between Cuba and China, which was based on mutual understanding and
mutual respect, had become a model of bilateral ties.
Each country faced the task of building socialism with its own national characteristics, she
said, adding Cuba was ready to further boost exchanges and cooperation with China.
Guo also met Ricardo Cabrisas Ruiz, vice president of the Cuban Council of Ministers, on
Thursday afternoon.
A CPC delegation led by Guo arrived here Thursday. He will also visit Brazil.
[
] Cuba and China re committed to increasing political and economic ties
UPI 6/18/13 –
(United Press International, “China and Cuba seek greater cooperation”,, June 19 2013,
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2013/06/19/China-and-Cuba-seek-greatercooperation/UPI-69371371651113/)
BEIJING, June 19 (UPI) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping said his country would like to work more
closely with Cuba on international and regional issues.
Xi told Cuba's visiting first vice president, Miguel Diaz-Canel, that China would like to forge a good
partnership with Latin American and Caribbean nations, the official Chinese news agency Xinhua
reported.
The Chinese leader called for stronger cooperation between China and Latin America.
As for China and Cuba, Xi said he would like to maintain a bilateral high-level exchange of
visits, increase party-to-party exchanges and enhance political trust.
Diaz-Canel said Cuba places great importance on building ties with China.
He concludes his three-day visit to China on Wednesday.
9
China Market Access Disadvantage
JV-Varsity
Urban Debate League 2013-2014
Uniqueness: Mexico- Chinese Influence High
[
] China and Mexico are committed to deepening their economic ties now.
Fox News Latino 6/2/13 (“China's President Wants To Open the Floodgates of Trade with Mexico”,
Fox News, June 2 2013, http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/money/2013/06/02/china-president-wants-toopen-floodgates-trade-with-mexico/)//CB
During the April talks, Xi said "he is committed to working with Mexican authorities to help
Mexico export more," Mexico's vice minister of foreign relations, Carlos de Icaza, told The
Associated Press.
That's key for Mexico, because its trade deficit with China is exploding, far surpassing that of
any other Latin American nation.
While China is looking to assure supplies of raw materials, Mexico is looking to diversify its
trade and investment, which have long been dominated by its superpower neighbor to the
north.
"In the new global geopolitical and economic map, China is, and I think it has arrived to stay, the
world's second economic power," De Icaza said. Mexico "has to understand and strengthen relations
with a nation that has such great strategic value."
De Icaza said the countries hope to sign at least a dozen agreements in the fields of trade,
energy, tourism, science and technology during Xi's visit.
Mexican exports to China came to a bit over $5.7 billion in 2012, while its imports from that country
stood at almost $57 billion, according to statistics from Mexico's Economy Department. Cell phones,
video games and parts for electronics factories have been pouring into Mexico, which sends China
minerals such as copper and lead.
Overall trade between China and Latin America has expanded quickly over the past decade
and the continent now imports more from China than it does from the European Union,
according to the U.N. economic agency for the region .
10
China Market Access Disadvantage
JV-Varsity
Urban Debate League 2013-2014
Uniqueness: Mexico- Chinese Influence High
[
] Chinese influence is outpacing the US in Mexico.
Menedez, economist and principal of The Cordoba Group International LLC, 2013
[Fernando. “The East is rising, in Latin America” 5/10/13
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3488/the_east_is_rising_in_latin_america]
Trade with China has also increased dramatically over the last decade. For example, China
now accounts for 19 percent of Brazil’s total trade as compared with 2.8 percent in 2001. Similarly,
China accounts for nearly 20 percent of Chile’s total trade in contrast to 5.6 percent a decade ago.
China has also concluded free-trade agreements with both Chile and Peru opening up those
markets to Chinese manufactured goods.¶ By 2014, China will overtake the European Union as
Latin America’s second largest trading partner after the United States. While it still has some
way to go in potentially overtaking the United States as the leading trade partner, it is,
nevertheless, probable.¶ Most recently, Brazil and China signed an agreement to pay for $30
billion in trade per year using local currencies and thus dropping the dollar. There is also
general speculation concerning a new renminbi-based currency, which, if it does not replace the
dollar or the euro, may well become a significant alternative foreign currency backed by commodities
and natural resources. Some even speak of a renminbi trading bloc. ¶ All of these moves
demonstrate the power of China’s purse, which the US is increasingly unable to match. The
speed and extent of China’s growth in Latin America also raises concerns about its
geopolitical and military policy objectives in the Americas. Many Chinese firms, especially in
telecommunications, have longstanding ties to the People’s Liberation Army, and that should raise
red flags.
11
China Market Access Disadvantage
JV-Varsity
Urban Debate League 2013-2014
Uniqueness: Mexico- United States Engagement Low
[
] US engagement with Mexico is decreasing
Priest, Latin American Reporter for the Washington Post, 2013
[Dana. “U.S. role to decrease as Mexico’s drug-war strategy shifts”. The Washington Post, 5/1/13 ln]
For the past seven years, Mexico and the United States have forged an unparalleled alliance
against Mexico’s drug cartels, one based on sharing sensitive intelligence, U.S. training and joint
operational planning.¶ But much of that hard-earned cooperation may be in jeopardy.¶ President
Obama heads off Thursday on a three-day visit to Mexico to cement relations with the newly elected
president, Enrique Peña Nieto, with vows of neighborly kinship and future cooperation. ¶ Obama’s
visit comes as the fight over border security and immigration overhaul has begun to consume
Congress.¶ The December inauguration of Peña Nieto brought the nationalistic Institutional
Revolutionary Party (PRI) back to power after 13 years, and with it a whiff of resentment over the
deep U.S. involvement in Mexico’s fight against narco-traffickers. ¶ The new administration has
shifted priorities away from the U.S.-backed strategy of arresting kingpins, which sparked an
unprecedented level of violence among the cartels, and toward an emphasis on prevention and
keeping Mexico’s streets safe and calm, Mexican authorities said.
12
China Market Access Disadvantage
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Urban Debate League 2013-2014
Answers to: United States Engagement with Mexico Durable
[
]
[
] Some collaboration might be inevitable, but the increase in economic engagement
facilitated by the plan is distinct
Stratfor, geopolitical intelligence firm, 2013
[Stratfor, Global Intelligence. “ Evolving U.S.-Mexico Relations and Obama's Visit” 5/2/13
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/evolving-us-mexico-relations-and-obamas-visit ]
Domestic political factors will determine the success of the pending overhauls. But the labor
reform could improve bilateral commerce and investment with the United States, as would a
successful liberalization of the country's energy sector in the coming years. Mexico is already
the United States' third-largest trading partner, and economic coordination between the two
countries has become a routine matter at the ministerial level, but there is still a need to ease
bureaucratic trade and investment barriers.
[
]Comparatively China is outpacing US engagement with Mexico.
Padgett, Latin America Reporter for TIME, 2013
[Timothy.. “The Obama Administration Looks to Latin America After Years of Neglect” TIME, 5/13/13
http://world.time.com/2013/05/13/has-washington-finally-discovered-latin-america/#ixzz2UhOE2vcE
On the other hand, Latin America can also be excused if it’s a little irked — if it’s asking the U.S.,
Why did you wait so long to make this outreach, if you really are making a genuine outreach?
Washington feels more urgency to look south at the moment largely because of China’s
increasing incursion into the hemisphere: annual China–Latin America trade exceeds $200
billion today compared with less than $10 billion in 2000. U.S.–Latin America trade may be robust.
But this month Sabatini’s publication, Americas Quarterly, lays out striking evidence of U.S.
decline: in 1995, for example, the U.S. sent Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy and now the
world’s sixth largest, more than a fifth of that country’s imports; by 2011 it was 15%, the same
share sent from China. Ditto with regard to Brazil’s exports: in 1995 the U.S. bought 21%, but just
10% in 2011, while for China it was 17%. China, as a result, surpassed the U.S. as Brazil’s top
trading partner in 2009. What’s more, business with the Americas as a share of total U.S. trade has
actually dropped over the past decade. ¶ The investment tally is even more striking: in 1995, the
U.S. accounted for 37% of Brazil’s foreign direct investment vs. 10% in 2011 — less than
China’s. Granted, it’s good for Latin America to be less dependent on the U.S. But it’s hardly
unreasonable to conclude that Washington wouldn’t be facing this China syndrome in its own
hemisphere if it had simply taken “high-level engagement on Latin America” more seriously a
decade or more ago. Or even four years ago, when Obama took office pledging a more benign U.S.
foreign policy toward the region and then used that, say critics, as an excuse for benign neglect.
13
China Market Access Disadvantage
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Urban Debate League 2013-2014
Uniqueness: Venezuela- China engaging now
[
] China signing oil deals to boost Venezuelan oil production now.
PLNA, Presna Latina News Agency, 2013
(5/17/2013,“Venezuela, China Strengthen Cooperation in Oil Sector,”
http://www.energytribune.com/76932/venezuela-china-strengthen-cooperation-in-oilsector#sthash.8RLoHoEy.dpbs, JMP)
China’s Vice President Li Yuanchao and Venezuelan Minister of Oil and Mining Rafael Ramirez
today ratified their will to strengthen bilateral cooperation in the hydrocarbons field. In
statements made from an oil extraction deposit of Sinovensa joint venture, in the Orinoco Oil Belt
(OOB), the Chinese vice president said that the goal is to jointly produce 40 million tons of oil
annually in the coming years.
The Chinese government is willing to back the investment projects and also work in other
aspects, such as the protection of the environment and the local population, said the visitor
during a visit to oil extraction areas.
According to Ramirez, the next step in that sense will be to decide about a $4 billion USD funding to
bring the Sinovensa or the OOB Carabobo division production to about 330,000 barrels of oil daily.
The also president of Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (Pdvsa) said that this agreement should be signed
in his next visit to China.
Sinovensa, whose 60 percent belongs to Pdvsa and the rest to China National Petroleum Company,
increased its production from about 20,000 barrels of oil daily in 2005 to 140,000 barrels of oil
in the present day.
Ramirez also talked about the goal of extracting about 400,000 barrels of oil daily by 2017 in
another of the Chinese-Venezuelan companies, Petrourica, located in Junin 4 bloc.
14
China Market Access Disadvantage
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Urban Debate League 2013-2014
Uniqueness: Venezuela- China engaging now
[
] China is increasing their influence and economic control of Venezuela because of US
absence.
Barrionuevo and Romero, Reporter from the New York Times and Brazil bureau chief for The
New York Times, 2009
(Alexei- and Simon- “Deals Help China Expand Sway in Latin America”,
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/world/16chinaloan.html?_r=0, April 15, 2009)
China has also pushed into Latin American countries where the United States has negligible
influence, like Venezuela.
In February, China’s vice president, Xi Jinping, traveled to Caracas to meet with President Hugo
Chávez. The two men announced that a Chinese-backed development fund based here would
grow to $12 billion from $6 billion, giving Venezuela access to hard currency while agreeing to
increase oil shipments to China to one million barrels a day from a level of about 380,000
barrels.
Mr. Chávez’s government contends the Chinese aid differs from other multilateral loans because it
comes without strings attached, like scrutiny of internal finances. But the Chinese fund has generated
criticism among his opponents, who view it as an affront to Venezuela’s sovereignty.
“The fund is a swindle to the nation,” said Luis Díaz, a lawmaker who claims that China locked
in low prices for the oil Venezuela is using as repayment
Despite forging ties to Venezuela and extending loans to other nations that have chafed at
Washington’s clout, Beijing has bolstered its presence without bombast, perhaps out of an
awareness that its relationship with the United States is still of paramount importance. But
this deference may not last. “This is China playing the long game,” said Gregory Chin, a
political scientist at York University in Toronto. “If this ultimately translates into political influence,
then that is how the game is played.”
15
China Market Access Disadvantage
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Urban Debate League 2013-2014
Uniqueness: Venezuela- China engaging now
[
] China increasing economic involvement in L.A. now – infrastructure and energy
cooperation
Fei, web editor at Xinhua, 2013
(Xu, “Xi's Trip Opens New Horizon for Ties with Latin America”, CRJ English, June 7 2013,
http://english.cri.cn/6909/2013/06/07/195s769020.htm)//CB
China and Latin America have expanded pragmatic cooperation in recent years, delivering
tangible benefits to both sides.
With two-way trade reaching 261.2 billion U.S. dollars in 2012, China has become the second largest
trading partner of Latin America and the Caribbean, which witnessed the world's fastest growth in
exports to China.
By investing nearly 65 billion dollars so far in Latin America and the Caribbean, China has
helped create much-needed jobs in the region.
However, both sides are fully aware that there is potential to be tapped. China's development
offers great opportunities for Latin America.
As the world's second biggest importer, China will buy goods worth over 1 trillion dollars over the next
five years and its overseas investment will exceed half a trillion dollars.
As Xi has mentioned in his speech at the Mexican Senate, China is confident in maintaining
steady economic expansion, which would create more business opportunities for the world
including Latin America and the Caribbean.
Latin America needs Chinese investment and participation in infrastructure construction. The
region's products such as farm produce and energy need the Chinese market.
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Uniqueness: Latin America - Chinese Influence High[
] China’s pursuing increased influence in Latin America
Goodman, . Latin America Desk for Bloomberg BusinessWeek, 2013
[Joshua. Latin America Desk for Bloomberg BusinessWeek. “Biden Circles Xi as U.S. Duels China for
Latin America Ties” 5/29/13 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/biden-circles-xi-as-u-sduels-china-for-latin-america-influence.html]
For Xi, his week-long tour of Trinidad, Costa Rica and Mexico precedes a visit to California for his
first face-to-face talks with Obama since taking office.¶ The trip to Latin America and the
Caribbean, coming so early in Xi’s presidency, reflects the rising confidence of the Chinese
leadership as it pursues its strategic interests with little concern for U.S. reaction, said Evan
Ellis, a professor at the National Defense University in Washington. China in recent years has
ousted the U.S. to become the top trade partner for Brazil and Chile.¶ “In the past Chinese
presidents were very deferential to the U.S., always making reference to Washington’s backyard,”
said Ellis, the author of dozens of papers and a book about China’s penetration of Latin America.
“You don’t hear any of that from Xi’s team, though you don’t find any threatening rhetoric either.”
[
] Chinese engagement in Latin America is outpacing the US now.
Goodman, . Latin America Desk for Bloomberg BusinessWeek, 2013
[Joshua. Latin America Desk for Bloomberg BusinessWeek. “Biden Circles Xi as U.S. Duels China for
Latin America Ties” 5/29/13 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/biden-circles-xi-as-u-sduels-china-for-latin-america-influence.html]
The competition between the world’s two biggest economies for influence in Latin America is
on display this week as U.S. Vice President Joe Biden arrives in Rio de Janeiro today near the end
of a three-nation tour of the region with Chinese President Xi Jinping close behind. ¶ The dueling
visits -- Biden departs Brazil May 31, the same day Xi arrives in Trinidad & Tobago to begin his first
tour of the region since China’s political transition ended in March -- underscore how Latin
America’s natural resources and rising middle class are making it an increasingly attractive
trade partner for the world’s top two economies. ¶ Competing with China’s checkbook isn’t
easy for the U.S. Seeking South American soy, copper and iron ore, China boosted imports from
Latin America 20-fold, to $86 billion in 2011 from $3.9 billion in 2000, according to calculations by
the Inter-American Development Bank. By contrast, the U.S. policy of pursuing free-trade accords
has been controversial, said Kevin Gallagher, a Boston University economist.¶ “If I’m a Latin
American leader, I’m very happy because I now have more chips to play with,” said Gallagher, author
of the 2010 book “The Dragon in the Room,” about China’s inroads in the region. “The onus is on
the U.S. to come up with a more flexible, attractive offer but that’s not so easy because it
doesn’t have the deep pockets like it used to
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Uniqueness: Latin America - Chinese Influence High
[
] China-Latin America relations growing – recent visit strengthened partnership
Xinhua News Service, 6/7/2013
(“Xi's Latin America tour deepens ties with developing countries”, Global Times, June 7 2013,
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/787469.shtml#.UbepbPmTif4)//CB
President Xi Jinping's tour in Latin America marks the full launch of China's ties with the
region that is increasingly important to both sides, according to Chinese scholars.
From May 31 to June 6, Xi paid state visits to Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica and Mexico. He also
met with leaders from several Caribbean countries in Trinidad and Tobago's Port of Spain.
In a speech given at the Mexican Senate on Wednesday, Xi called for concerted efforts to beef up
relations China and Latin America.
Yang Zhimin, a research fellow from the Latin America Institute under the Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences, said Xi's visit marks the full launch of ties of China and Latin America, which, in geological
terms, is composed of four sub-regions, including South America, Central America, the Caribbean
region and Mexico.
Yang said the three states Xi visited represent distinct subdivisions of Latin America and are
economically complementary to China.
"For example, Chinese tourists can boost the development of the tourism industries in those
countries, while those countries' agricultural products and mineral resources can find a
market in China," Yang said.
Yang said China can learn from some Latin American countries in terms of financial services and
ecological conservation.
In 2008, China's government published a policy document detailing its ties with Latin America, vowing
to build a comprehensive cooperative partnership with mutual benefit and equality.
Trade volume between the two sides has increased from 2.29 billion US dollars in 1990 to 261.2
billion US dollars in 2012. Of the 10 free trade agreements China has signed with other countries,
three are with Latin American countries.
While holding a luncheon with state leaders from Caribbean countries, Xi said China will
unswervingly develop a comprehensive cooperative partnership with these countries.
"Xi met with a number of leaders from Caribbean countries. The outcome of the meetings was quite
positive and demonstrates the attention China has paid to the region," Yang said.
In San Jose, Xi and Costa Rican President Laura Chinchilla agreed to enhance high-level exchanges
and pragmatic cooperation.
Yang said Costa Rica serves as an important hub between North and South America, adding that
China can strengthen its economic ties with other countries in the region that have no diplomatic ties
with China.
Xi said at the Mexican Senate that a stronger partnership between China and Latin America
will boost the development of both sides and serve peace, stability and prosperity in the
region and the world.
The visits mark Xi's second foreign trip since he became China's president in March. At the end of
March, Xi visited Russia, Tanzania, South Africa and the Republic of Congo. He also attended the
fifth BRICS leaders' summit in Durban.
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There is only room for one great power in Latin America
Dowd 2012 (Alan-Alan W. Dowd is a Senior Fellow with the American Security Council Foundation,
“Crisis in the America's”, http://www.ascfusa.org/content_pages/view/crisisinamericas)
Focused on military operations in the Middle East, nuclear threats in Iran and North Korea, and the
global threat of terrorism, U.S. policymakers have neglected a growing challenge right here in the
Western Hemisphere: the expanding influence and reach of China.
Eyeing energy resources to keep its economy humming, China is engaged in a flurry of investing and
spending in Latin America.
In Costa Rica, China is funding a $1.24-billion upgrade of the country’s oil refinery; bankrolling an
$83-million soccer stadium; backing infrastructure and telecommunications improvements; and
pouring millions into a new police academy.
In Colombia, China is planning a massive “dry canal” to link the country’s Pacific and Atlantic coasts
by rail. At either terminus, there will be Chinese ports; in between, there will be Chinese assembly
facilities, logistics operations and distribution plants; and on the Pacific side, there will be dedicated
berths to ship Colombian coal outbound to China.
In mid-January, a Chinese-built oil rig arrived in Cuba to begin drilling in Cuba’s swath of the Gulf of
Mexico. Reuters reports that Spanish, Russian, Malaysian and Norwegian firms will use the rig to
extract Cuban oil. For now, China is focusing on onshore oil extraction in Cuba.
New offshore discoveries will soon catapult Brazil into a top-five global oil producer. With some 38
billion barrels of recoverable oil off its coast, Brazil expects to pump 4.9 million barrels per day by
2020, as the Washington Times reports, and China has used generous loans to position itself as the
prime beneficiary of Brazilian oil. China’s state-run oil and banking giants have inked technologytransfer, chemical, energy and real-estate deals with Brazil. Plus, as the Times details, China came to
the rescue of Brazil’s main oil company when it sought financing for its massive drilling plans, pouring
$10 billion into the project. A study in Joint Force Quarterly (JFQ) adds that Beijing plunked down
$3.1 billion for a slice of Brazil’s vast offshore oil fields.
The JFQ study reveals just how deep and wide Beijing is spreading its financial influence in Latin
America: $28 billion in loans to Venezuela; a $16.3-billion commitment to develop Venezuelan oil
reserves; $1 billion for Ecuadoran oil; $4.4 billion to develop Peruvian mines; $10 billion to help
Argentina modernize its rail system; $3.1 billion to purchase Argentina’s petroleum company outright.
The New York Times adds that Beijing has lent Ecuador $1 billion to build a hydroelectric plant.
There is good and bad to Beijing’s increased interest and investment in the Western Hemisphere.
Investment fuels development, and much of Latin America is happily accelerating development in the
economic, trade, technology and infrastructure spheres. But China’s riches come with strings.
For instance, in exchange for Chinese development funds and loans, Venezuela agreed to increase
oil shipments to China from 380,000 barrels per day to one million barrels per day. It’s worth noting
that the Congressional Research Service has reported concerns in Washington that Hugo Chavez
might try to supplant his U.S. market with China. Given that Venezuela pumps an average of 1.5
million barrels of oil per day for the U.S.—or about 11 percent of net oil imports—the results would be
devastating for the U.S.
That brings us to the security dimension of China’s checkbook diplomacy in the Western Hemisphere.
Officials with the U.S. Southern Command conceded as early as 2006 that Beijing had “approached
every country in our area of responsibility” and provided military exchanges, aid or training to
Ecuador, Jamaica, Bolivia, Cuba, Chile and Venezuela.
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The JFQ study adds that China has “an important and growing presence in the region’s military
institutions.” Most Latin American nations, including Mexico, “send officers to professional military
education courses in the PRC.” In Ecuador, Venezuela and Bolivia, Beijing has begun to sell
“sophisticated hardware…such as radars and K-8 and MA-60 aircraft.” The JFQ report concludes,
ominously, that Chinese defense firms “are likely to leverage their experience and a growing track
record for their goods to expand their market share in the region, with the secondary consequence
being that those purchasers will become more reliant on the associated Chinese logistics,
maintenance, and training infrastructures that support those products.”
Put it all together, and the southern flank of the United States is exposed to a range of new security
challenges.
To be sure, much of this is a function of China’s desire to secure oil markets. But there’s more at work
here than China’s thirst for oil. Like a global chess match, China is probing Latin America and sending
a message that just as Washington has trade and military ties in China’s neighborhood, China is
developing trade and military ties in America’s neighborhood.
This is a direct challenge to U.S. primacy in the region—a challenge that must be answered.
First, Washington needs to relearn an obvious truth—that China’s rulers do not share America’s
values—and needs to shape and conduct its China policy in that context.
Beijing has no respect for human rights. Recall that in China, an estimated 3-5 million people are
rotting away in laogai slave-labor camps, many of them “guilty” of political dissent or religious activity;
democracy activists are rounded up and imprisoned; freedom of speech and religion and assembly
do not exist; and internal security forces are given shoot-to-kill orders in dealing with unarmed
citizens. Indeed, Beijing viewed the Arab Spring uprisings not as an impetus for political reform, but
as reason “to launch its harshest crackdown on dissent in at least a decade,” according to Director of
National Intelligence James Clapper.
In short, the ends always justify the means in Beijing. And that makes all the difference when it comes
to foreign and defense policy. As Reagan counseled during the Cold War, “There is no true
international security without respect for human rights.”
Second, the U.S. must stop taking the Western Hemisphere for granted, and instead must reengage
in its own neighborhood economically, politically and militarily.
That means no more allowing trade deals—and the partners counting on them—to languish. Plans for
a hemispheric free trade zone have faltered and foundered. The trade-expansion agreements with
Panama and Colombia were left in limbo for years, before President Obama finally signed them into
law in 2011.
Reengagement means reviving U.S. diplomacy. The Wall Street Journal reports that due to political
wrangling in Washington, the State Department position focused on the Western Hemisphere has
been staffed by an interim for nearly a year, while six Western Hemisphere ambassadorial posts
(Uruguay, Venezuela, Ecuador, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Barbados) remain empty.
Reengagement means reversing plans to slash defense spending. The Joint Forces Command noted
in 2008 that China has “a deep respect for U.S. military power.” We cannot overstate how important
this has been to keeping the peace. But with the United States in the midst of massive military
retrenchment, one wonders how long that reservoir of respect will last.
Reengagement also means revitalizing security ties. A good model to follow might be what’s
happening in China’s backyard. To deter China and prevent an accidental war, the U.S. is reviving its
security partnerships all across the Asia-Pacific region. Perhaps it’s time to do the same in Latin
America. We should remember that many Latin American countries—from Mexico and Panama to
Colombia and Chile—border the Pacific. Given Beijing’s actions, it makes sense to bring these Latin
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American partners on the Pacific Rim into the alliance of alliances that is already stabilizing the AsiaPacific region.
Finally, all of this needs to be part of a revived Monroe Doctrine.
Focusing on Chinese encroachment in the Americas, this “Monroe Doctrine 2.0” would make it clear
to Beijing that the United States welcomes China’s efforts to conduct trade in the Americas but
discourages any claims of control—implied or explicit—by China over territories, properties or
facilities in the Americas. In addition, Washington should make it clear to Beijing that the American
people would look unfavorably upon the sale of Chinese arms or the basing of Chinese advisors or
military assets in the Western Hemisphere.
In short, what it was true in the 19th and 20th centuries must remain true in the 21st: There is room
for only one great power in the Western Hemisphere.
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Answers to: United States Engagement with Latin America Durable
[
]
[
] US actions never aligned with the rhetoric of politicians in regards to Latin America.
Padgett, Latin America Reporter for TIME, 2013
[Timothy.. “The Obama Administration Looks to Latin America After Years of Neglect” TIME, 5/13/13
http://world.time.com/2013/05/13/has-washington-finally-discovered-latin-america/#ixzz2UhOE2vcE
There are of course skeptics. I asked Robert Pastor, a former White House national security
advisor for Latin America and now an international relations professor at American University in
Washington, D.C., if he thinks the U.S. is doing enough to keep itself relevant in the Americas.¶
“No it’s not,” he says. “President Obama’s trip (to Mexico and Central America) is a good first
step, but he needs to do a lot more to open up and show America’s interest in re-engaging
with the rest of South America.Ӧ Pastor has a point: for decades, Latin America has heard a lot of
rhetoric from the U.S. about engagement -- the kind Biden offered the Council of the Americas
in Washington recently, when he declared that the hemisphere “matters more (to the U.S.) today
because it has more potential than any time in American history.”
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Link- US engagement with Cuba trade off with China
[
] Cuba engagement by the United States reverses Chinese dominance
Luko, National Council For Soviet East European Research, the Smithsonian Institute, 2011
(James, “China's Moves on Cuba Need to Be Stopped”, 6/29, http://www.nolanchart.com/article8774chinas-moves-on-cuba-need-to-be-stopped.html)
The Red Dragon takes another wide step of not only flexing its muscles in Asia, but now wishes to
supplant Russias and (former USSRs) forward base presence 90 miles from the United StatesCUBA. Cuba is China's biggest trade partner in the Caribbean region, while China is Cuba's
second-largest trade partner after Venezuela. Over the past decade, bilateral trade increased from
$440 million in 2001 to $1.83 billion in 2010. [1] In 2006 China and Cuba discussed offshore oil
deals and now China's National Petroleum Corporation is a major player in Cuban infrastructure
improvements. [ibid] In 2008, none other than China's President himself, Hu JinTao visited Cuba
with a sweet package of loans, grants and trade deals. If Cuba becomes a 'client' state of China, it
will be a source of leverage against America whenever the U.S. Pressures China on Tibet and
Taiwan. Soon we will witness the newly constructed blue-water navy of China cruising Cuba's coast
in protection of their trade routes and supply of natural resources. In 2003 it was reported that
Chinese personnel were operating at least TWO (2) intelligence signal sations in Cuba since at least
1999 ! [2] This month, June 2011, the Vice President of China made an important visit, extending
more financial aid, interest-free, as well as related health projects to be paid for by China. A client
state in the making ! [3] The best way to counter the Chinese in Cuba is to reverse Americas 50
year old, ineffective and obsolete policy of isolationism and boycott of Cuba. The Chinese
threat in Cuba should be the catalyst for the US to establish open and normalized relations,
with economic incentives to re-Americanize Cuba, return of American investments and security
agreements. Checking the Chinese move in Cuba early on is vital to preventing a strategic
Chinese foothold 90 miles from Florida. Allowing China to replace Russia in Cuba would be a
strategic disaster. China is dangling financial assistance and investments in order to establish
a beachhead close to the shores of America. This is a counter-response to Americas continued
military presence in Asia, continued support of Taiwan and recent increased American aid to the
Philippines in its spat with China over sovereignty of the Spratly Islands. The Cuban people wish to
return to the American fold and re-establish the traditional relationship with the Cuban anchor
in Florida- namely the almost 900,000 Cubans living in Florida alone! [4]
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Link- US engagement with Cuba trade off with China
[
] Increased economic engagement with Cuba shores up US-Cuban relations—stops
Chinese engagement
Benjamin-Alvadaro, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha 06
(Jonathan, “The Current Status and Future Prospects for Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special,”
http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cuba-alvarado.pdf)
Given that there are no formal diplomatic of economic relations between the governments of
the United States and Cuba, the level of interest has grown significantly in the 3 years due
primarily to three reasons in the following interest areas: energy security interests; broader regional
strategic; and purely economic interests. First, the energy security interests in the potential of Cuban
oil – although it really would not minimize the immediacy of an American energy crisis – is seen as
possible if only partial remedy to energy supply concerns. Second, as Cuba, in part because of the
increasing number of oil partnerships furthers its diplomatic and economic ties to with
countries like Venezuela, China, Brazil and members of the European Union it may prove to
provide Cuba for a sufficient buffer against U.S. opposition as it solidifies it economic and
diplomatic role in the region. This is important inasmuch as there is a de facto trend in the
Americas that clearly disavows and attempts to minimize the influence of the United States in
the region, and with the growing demands on the world economy by China, it stands to reason
that Cuba may assume an increasing stature that almost potentially lessens the presence of
American influence in Cuban and hence regional affairs. Finally, and as demonstrated by the
presence of American oil interests in the February 2006 U.S.- Cuban Energy Summit in Mexico City,
there may be interest in cooperating in joint venture projects, and by extension assisting in the
long-term development in Cuba’s oil industry. ¶
To accomplish this task the report seeks to lay out some national security policy considerations
applying strategic thought to what I will term “Post-Oil” Cuba – a Cuba that has a small but vibrant
and growing oil and gas production capacity with extensive relations with a number of partners, and
an increasingly positive outlook toward addressing energy and economic development questions that
have plagued the Castro regime since the Cuban Revolution.3 ¶
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Chinese investment lower US investment in Latin America
Funaro 6-4-13 - Kaitlin Funaro is a GlobalPost breaking news writer. (“Xi flies to Mexico as China
battles US for influence in Latin America”, GlobalPost, June 4 2013,
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/130604/xi-flies-mexico-chinabattles-us-influence-latin-ame)//CB
When it comes to economic influence, China may be gaining the upper hand in Latin America. China
is increasing its funding to the region just as the US has been coming under pressure to cut aid and
investment. "If I’m a Latin American leader, I’m very happy because I now have more chips to play
with," Kevin Gallagher, author of the 2010 book "The Dragon in the Room," about China’s inroads in
Latin America, told Bloomberg. "The onus is on the US to come up with a more flexible, attractive
offer but that’s not so easy because it doesn’t have the deep pockets like it used to." Latin America's
growing economy makes for an attractive investment. The International Monetary Fund forecasts the
region’s economies will expand 3.4 percent this year, almost three times the pace of growth in the
developed world. Xi's tour of Trinidad, Costa Rica and Mexico are setting the stage for his visit to
California later this week, which will be his first face-to-face talks with Obama since taking office. That
Xi's Latin America trip came so early into his presidency is a confident approach that shows little
concern for American reaction, Evan Ellis, a professor at the National Defense University in
Washington told Bloomberg. "In the past Chinese presidents were very deferential to the US., always
making reference to Washington’s backyard," Ellis said. "You don’t hear any of that from Xi’s team,
though you don’t find any threatening rhetoric either."
China investment in Latin Amercia reduces US leverage in the area.
Brandt et al December 2013 ( Jon, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL SERVICE, “Chinese Engagement in Latin America
and the Caribbean: Implications for US Foreign Policy”,
http://www.american.edu/sis/usfp/upload/Chinese-Engagement-in-LAC-AU_US-CongressFINAL.pdf.)
Essentially, Latin American countries, which have long been big buyers of US goods, are
increasingly making a larger proportion of their purchases from China.5 Assuming this trend
continues, there are huge implications for US exporters and jobs. Although US exports do not
necessarily compete with China’s (the United States primarily sells high technology goods such as
aircraft, and medical equipment to the region, while China sells mostly apparel and consumer
electronics), US exporters face the challenge of competition not only from China’s undervalued
currency but also from China’s manufacturing sector.6
For example, Chinese automakers are making valuable gains in emerging auto markets by focusing
less on quality and design and more on ruthless cost-cutting. These measures significantly challenge
companies like General Motors that are looking to emerging markets for growth but have
considerably higher sticker prices on their cars. 7 A trade agenda is one of the best tools that the US
has not only to increase exports to Latin America and create jobs for American workers but also to
promote a trade and investment regime that will enhance the Western Hemisphere’s economic
competitiveness. While the negotiation of a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) has struggled to
advance over the past decade,8 the United States could take the initiative to organize the existing 12
US Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) in the Western Hemisphere into a more coherent (and
integrated) regional group. An example would be to lessen the impact of restrictive rules of origin,
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which can distort trade and can increase transaction costs, thus facilitating the movement of goods
between countries with similar agreements. Another benefit of a regional group is an increase in
scale economies, which lowers the average cost of production.9
A trade agenda also has important foreign policy implications. China’s growing economic presence in
the Americas provides Latin American and Caribbean nations with additional trade and investment
options that reduce US leverage to promote open market, democratic values. US efforts to
promote labor and environmental reforms through trade agreements are undermined when other
nations have the ability to sign similar agreements with China that do not include similar
provisions.10 For example, China’s FTAs with Chile and Peru liberalize agriculture and markets for
lower value-added manufactured goods but do not include deregulation and liberalization of services
and investment and stronger protection of intellectual property rights.11 US FTAs seek to raise the
economic competitiveness of both signatories through the harmonization and modernization of
services and investment.12
It is worth noting that the US and Brazil have shared challenges with respect to China and can
develop a common agenda on several issues.13 For example, both Brazil and the US face the
challenge of competition not only from China’s undervalued currency but also from China’s
manufacturing sector. In Brazil, for example, textiles, clothing, footwear, industrial machinery and
equipment, and office machines have been hard hit in the domestic market. This explains the rise of
anti-dumping investigations by Brazil against Chinese imports.14 In the last two months, Brazil has
initiated anti-dumping investigations on Chinese carbon steel pipes, tires for motorcycles, basic
refractories, and nylon yarn.15 This may provide an opportunity for the US and Brazil to pursue a
common diplomatic cause to press the Chinese to allow the renminbi to appreciate against the US
dollar and the Brazilian real.
China signing agreements with Latin America now – straining U.S. influence
Singh 6/17/13 (Teshu, “China And Latin America: Quest For Energy Security – Analysis”, Eurasia
Review, June 17 2013, http://www.eurasiareview.com/17062013-china-and-latin-america-quest-forenergy-security-analysis/)//CB
Energy Security remains the prime agenda of its foreign policy; the new leadership is trying to project
China’s ‘peaceful development’ to every possible place on the globe. The visit reveals regardless of
the size and geographical distances China is keen on developing relations with these countries to
boost its economic ties to secure its energy resources. Being in the developing stages, the LAC
needs Chinese investments in its infrastructure and construction which has not come till now by the
US.
The agreements signed are an indication to the LAC countries that China has been taking them
seriously and has responded to their gesture. Perhaps the strengthening of the China-LAC relations
will help the international community better cope with global challenges and promote a multi polar
world and democracy in the international relations.
President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden had already taken trip to exactly these three
countries earlier this year. Thus it can decipher that the choice of these countries are no coincidence.
However the burgeoning ties between China and LAC may cause discomfort to the US as it has
brought China close to its doorstep.
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Link- Engagement with Cuba is a political symbol
[
] Cuba is strategically important for China – political symbol of influence.
Hearn, Senior Research Fellow at the University of Sydney, 200 9.
(Adrian, Senior Research Fellow at the University of Sydney, and Kiriyama Research Fellow at the
University of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim, "China's relations with Mexico and Cuba: A
Study of Contrasts" Pacific Rim Report -- No 52 -- January -usf.usfca.edu/pac_rim/new/research/pacrimreport/pacrimreport52.html)
One summary of China’s relations with six Latin American countries (Jorge I. Domínguez et al.,
2006) juxtaposes political cooperation with trade patterns. The study argues that although economic
considerations are paramount, Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil have to varying degrees used
China to balance U.S. influence in the region. Varying degrees of alarm about this prospect are
expressed in the publications of research institutions and think tanks associated with the U.S. military
and government (CLATF 2006:2, Eisenman 2006, Lam 2004, Mrozinski 2002). Indeed, the ‘triangular’
relationship between China, Latin America, and the United States is emerging as a prominent topic of
debate (e.g. Arnson et al. 2007). ¶ China’s multiple objectives in Latin America are evident in the
diversity of its activities in Cuba and Mexico. Although Cuba harbors some economic value for
China through oil exploration, nickel extraction, biomedical collaboration, and electronics sales and
manufacturing, its appeal is mainly political. Diplomatic links with Cuba promote China’s image
as a ‘non-aligned’ protagonist of ‘South-South’ cooperation, providing ideological common
ground with the eight mineral-rich countries that make up Latin America’s ‘New Left’. Mexico,
by contrast, offers China more conventional economic incentives such as a market for Chinese
consumer products, a manufacturing base with geographic and legal access to North American
markets, and the prospect of potentially massive investment in the oil sector. The following sections
discuss the challenges and opportunities that China has brought to Mexico and Cuba, and the steps
taken by both governments to respond effectively.
¶
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Link- Engagement with Cuba key to Chinese regional plan
[
] Influence in Cuba key to China’s overall Latin American agenda.
Hearn, Senior Research Fellow at the University of Sydney, 200 9.
(Adrian, Senior Research Fellow at the University of Sydney, and Kiriyama Research Fellow at the
University of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim, "China's relations with Mexico and Cuba: A
Study of Contrasts" Pacific Rim Report -- No 52 -- January -usf.usfca.edu/pac_rim/new/research/pacrimreport/pacrimreport52.html)
China is Cuba’s second largest trading partner after Venezuela, with 2.7 billion dollars in bilateral
trade reported for 2007 (Cubaencuentro 2008). This trade is more valuable to Cuba than to China,
though this could change if Chinese oil, nickel, and electronics manufacturing operations in
Cuba expand. Furthermore, for the eight resource-rich countries that comprise Latin America’s
“New Left”, Cuba is a unique ideological symbol of resistance to U.S. hegemony. For China,
whose pursuit of Latin American natural resources is at least as voracious as that of the United
States, cooperation with Cuba, strongly supported by Raúl Castro, decreases the danger of being
perceived in the region as an external—potentially imperialistic—threat to economic
sovereignty.
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Link: Economic Engagement with Mexico crowds out China
[
] Mexico-- Increased economic engagement by the United States crowds out China.
Lack of US influence is key to China’s expansion in Latin America.
Shaiken et al, Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley, 2013
[Harley, and Enrique Peters – Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And
Adrian Hearn – Centro de Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico.
China and the New Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico
Relations, 2013. Pg 7-8]
The dominant strategies of each of the parties and how these strategies evolve over time: Mexico’s
regional and global position is being shaped by an increasing accent on diplomatic and trade
diversification. The decline in US influence and the expected reforms in the Mexican energy
sector may open more room for Mexico to adjust to a growth strategy less dependent on the
United States. China’s rising role as a regional and global power and the new economic
scenario marked by higher wages and growing concentration in industrial commodities and
products are likely to affect the pace of change according to which China’s “going out” strategy
will develop in the near future. If Mexico and China reorient their strategies, it is likely that there
will be an adjustment in the triangle’s dynamic, which may result in a closer relationship
between these two countries.
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Link: Modernizing Border with Mexico increases US engagement- commercial relations
[
] Creating a modern border infrastructure is crucial to developing the Mexico-US
commercial relationship
Figueroa, Lee and Van Schoik, Research and Policy Analyst, Associatiate Director and
Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies, 2012
(Alejandro , Erik, and Rick “Realizing the Full Value of Crossborder Trade with Mexico,” North
American Center for Transborder Studies, 2/9/2012)¶
Sharing a 2,000-mile long border needs to be recognized as both a challenge and an opportunity.
While land ports of entry between the two nations were first envisioned to process the legitimate
crossing of people, goods and services across the border, security has taking a dominant role in
recent years, hampering the ability of federal agencies to efficiently manage border traffic. Advances
in border infrastructure simply did not happen during the last decade, which is astounding given the
greatly expanded post-NAFTA binational commercial relationship. Our border’s infrastructure and
capacity today reflects the needs of a bygone era. This became evident as never before when on
September 14, 2011, the San Ysidro, California port of entry —the busiest land port of entry in the
world—had to shut down its 24 north-bound lanes due to the collapse of part of its roof,
injuring several people and damaging vehicles trying to cross into the U.S. from Tijuana, Mexico. ¶
According to a report by the San Diego Association of Governments, inadequate infrastructure
capacity just at the border crossings between San Diego County and the state of Baja
California creates traffic congestion and delays that cost both the U.S. and Mexican
economies on average an estimated $7.2 billion in forgone gross output and more than 62,000
jobs on an annual basis. These border delays could cause $86 billion in output losses over the
next ten years. ¶ “The border has been a filter to what shouldn’t get in, when it can be a facilitator to
what should get in.” —Rachel Poynter, U.S. State Department ¶ These delays are significant for a
number of reasons, not the least of which is that American firms are constantly attempting to reduce
their inventory costs in an attempt to remain competitive. While importing from China to the U.S. may
require a company to hold more than 100 days of inventory, if efficiently managed, our proximity to
Mexico can provide American firms with a constant and predictable flow of goods that may reduce
inventory costs and provide firms the ability to respond rapidly and effectively to sudden market
changes. With this fundamental fact in mind, in May of 2010 the U.S. and Mexico signed the 21st
Century Border Management Joint Declaration. Recognizing the importance of fostering the
commercial relationship, both countries have agreed to coordinate efforts to enhance the
economic competitiveness by expediting lawful trade. The idea is that development of modern
and secure 16 ¶ border infrastructure will give an added boost to our region’s competitiveness
in the world and at the same time increase our access to a wider, more affordable and ever
improving quality set of goods.
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Link: Modernizing Border with Mexico increases US engagement- economic integration
[
] Cross border infrastructure building is crucial for economic integration
Figueroa, Lee and Van Schoik, Research and Policy Analyst, Associatiate Director and
Director at the North American Center for Transborder Studies, 2012
(Alejandro , Erik, and Rick “Realizing the Full Value of Crossborder Trade with Mexico,” North
American Center for Transborder Studies, 2/9/2012)¶
Today more than 75,000 trucks (carrying close to 80 % of our two-way trade) cross our border on a
daily basis. That this much traffic is able to cross our congested borders is due in part to important
advances in border infrastructure in the last couple of years as new ports of entry have been opened.
One important policy development is master planning processes for regional border infrastructure,
which have been initiated in conjunction with local border communities and state governments. It is
hoped that these regional processes will eventually make the overall binational infrastructurebuilding process more transparent, more robust and ultimately a better fit for two such
powerful economies and next door neighbors. ¶ Much Opportunity, but the Real Work Has Only
Just Begun ¶ Total trade between the United States and Mexico has expanded by more than
600% since 1990. Yet we need further commitment and investment in the infrastructure
needed to sustain such growth, which is critical for both economies. The question now is
whether our current border management system will be able to sustain that growth, and if so, for how
much longer. A strong trade/joint production relationship with Mexico can help create high-quality jobs
within our borders. ¶ For reasons of geography and history, Mexico’s fate is intertwined with that of the
United States. And despite the current global economic environment, and transnational organized
crime affecting Mexico and the United States, the two countries need to implement a 21st Century
border that not only re-invigorates crossborder trade and economic integration but which will
also lead to increased safety and quality of life for the residents of both countries. ¶ Both countries
need to remain committed to promoting the global competitiveness of our region and to ensuring that
the benefits of expanding trade flows keep reaching businesses, workers and consumers on both
sides of our shared border. We will be able to accomplish this if leaders can explain the critical nature
of our commercial relationships in ways that are more concrete and easier for citizens to understand.
It is past time for our shared border to begin to meet tomorrow’s demands, acting as a
facilitator and conductor of the lawful flows of goods, services and people between our
nations, so that we may capitalize on the full potential of our partnership. If a billion dollars’
worth of trade crosses the U.S.-Mexico border on a daily basis and sustains six million jobs in
the U.S., imagine what could be accomplished with a truly 21st century border.
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Link: Modernizing Border with Mexico increases US engagement- Trade
[
] Construction of improved border crossings and the resulting increase in trade would
increase engagement between the United States and Mexico.
Negroponte, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution 2012
(Diana, , “Viewpoints: What Should the Top Priority Be for U.S. – Mexican Relations?” American
Society/Council of the Americas, 12/3/12, www.as-coa.org/articles/viewpoints-what-should-toppriority-be-us-mexican-relations)
Deepening the trade relationship and facilitating the shipment of component parts between
Mexico and the United States requires the creation of access roads some eight miles ahead of
the principal border crossings. With electronic submission of customs/immigration
documentation and with electronic seals on transnational containers, trucks filled with bilaterally
manufactured products can more rapidly pass across the border. Currently, the trucks are
delayed principally for lack of access roads leading up to the border, especially on the Mexican side.
¶ In order to construct these roads, private-public partnerships are needed. The NADBANK,
established 20 years ago to support environmental projects, is the best placed to mobilize these
partnerships. The bank's bylaws permit this. However, the environmental impact needs to be
interpreted broadly. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could recognize that new roads
relieve the congestion and high levels of air pollutants at the border crossing itself. Use of access
roads may spread pollution further inland, but the levels of pollutants will be significantly lower than
those currently suffered each side of the Rio Grande.¶ NADBANK’s initiative and the White House
leadership to facilitate EPA approval could lead to the development of access roads and
decongestion at the actual border. Mexican presidential encouragement to NADBANK's directors
to seek PPPs and U.S. presidential urging to the EPA for a broad interpretation of its mandate could
result in a decade's work of new infrastructure projects. This will facilitate the anticipated tripling
of cross-border trade as both countries negotiate a Trans-Pacific Partnership and Mexico
negotiates a Pacific Trade Alliance with its South American partners. ¶ Presidential decisions to
advance on instructing NADBANK to move forward with PPPs for these infrastructure projects are
relatively easy. Their consequences will enhance the trade and prosperity of both nations.
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Link: Agricultural Assistance
[
] Latin America and China agreements on agricultural cooperation now
Xinhua News Service, 2013
(staff writer for Chinadaily, “China, Latin America to boost agricultural co-op”, 6/10,
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2013-06/10/content_16604896.htm)//VP
BEIJING -- China, Latin American and Caribbean countries will look to eliminate trade barriers
as they look to boost agricultural cooperation, a joint statement said Sunday. Efforts will also be
made to simplify trade procedures, according to a statement from the China-Latin America and the
Caribbean Agricultural Ministers' Forum, which was held in Beijing. The sides will work together to
set up agricultural research and development centers and demonstration projects
for food production and processing, the statement said. China, Latin American and Caribbean
countries will jointly hold agricultural fairs and expos to promote bilateral trade.
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Answers to: United States Won’t Crowd out China from Mexico
[
] U.S. and China in zero sum game – Chinese involvement in Latin America growing
Kreps and Flores-Macias 13 - Sarah E. Kreps is Assistant Professor of Government at Cornell University. Gustavo A.
Flores-Macías is Assistant Professor of Government at Cornell University. They are the authors of "The Foreign Policy
Consequences of Aid: China’s Commercial Relations with Africa and Latin America, 1992–2006," which appears in the
most recent issue of the Journal of Politics. (Sarah and Gustavo, “No Strings Attached? Evaluating China’s Trade
Relations Abroad”, The Diplomat, May 17 2013, http://thediplomat.com/china-power/no-strings-attached-evaluatingchinas-trade-relations-abroad/)//CB
Whether by design or not, the convergence with China’s foreign policy goals is important on
at least two levels. First, developing countries in Africa and Latin America may be lulled by
the prospect of partnering with a country such as China that does not have an explicit political
agenda, as did the United States and Soviet Union during the Cold War, but this appears to be an
illusion. Whether this reaches the level of “new colonialism” as former Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton referred to it remains to be seen, but the economic asymmetries that undergird the
relationship make that prospect more likely.
A second set of implications deals with the United States. During the same period in which
China’s trade with Africa and Latin America and foreign policy convergence have increased,
the United States and China have actually diverged in their overall UNGA voting behavior.
This suggests something of a zero sum dynamic in which China’s growing trade relations
make it easier to attract allies in international forums while US influence is diminishing.
Taken together, these trends call for greater engagement on behalf of the United States in the
developing world. Since the September 2001 attacks, Washington has dealt with Africa and Latin
America through benign neglect and shifted its attention elsewhere. If foreign policy alignment
does follow from tighter commercial relations, the US ought to reinvigorate its trade and
diplomatic agenda as an important means of projecting influence abroad.
[
] US-Mexico economic relations crowd out China.
Fischer, Analyst for Capitol Media, 2012
[Howard. Analyst for Capitol Media. “Fox says US-Mexico ties deter China's influence” 9/14/12
http://azstarnet.com/news/local/border/fox-says-us-mexico-ties-deter-china-sinfluence/article_b8fd3834-acdc-5b33-b1fb-d983fdf8d2de.html]
Former Mexican President Vicente Fox said the United States has to bolster ties with Mexico including recognizing the benefits of migrant labor - or get used to the idea of China setting the
international agenda on its own terms.¶ "The threat is this so-called power shift from the West
to the East," he told a press conference Thursday at an economic development event organized by
the city of Peoria.¶ "Those nations on the East are getting ready and prepared to lead," Fox
explained, saying there are forecasts showing the Chinese economy will be larger than that of
the United States within a dozen years. "And that means a very important question to all of us:
Under what principles are those leading nations (going to) be exercising their leadership?" Fox
said.¶ His point: The U.S. would be better off dealing with Mexico and other Latin American countries
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than perhaps those with different worldviews.¶ "We have our values in the West that we share," Fox
said. "So we all on this continent, especially North America, must get ready to meet that challenge." ¶
That means bolstering the economies of the United States and Mexico, he said.¶ If the West
wants to keep its edge, Fox said, there needs to be a recognition that Mexicans in the United
States, legally or not, contribute to the economy of both countries. And that, he said, will require
resolving the issue of who can come to this country and under what circumstances.¶ "
Chinese competition will happen – see their role in Latin America as anti-american.
Hsiang 9- Department of International Trade, PhD in Poli Sci, Research member of Society for
Strategic Studies. relations across the Taiwan Strait; Latin American area studies. (Antonio C.
Hsiang, November 2009, Volume #1 (Issue #1),” China Rising in Latin America: More Opportunities
than Challenges”,
http://digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=jekem)
Based on evidence of the events taking place between China and Latin America, “Beijing’s
goals in Latin America are: counterbalancing American hegemony by enhancing multilateral
relations; diversifying external relations to diversify their export strength; and maintaining
good relations with major producers of oil (Venezuela), food (Argentina and Brazil) and other
raw materials (copper in Chile, nickel and cobalt in Cuba, and pulp in Brazil).”
It is no accident that in March 2007, during the Inter-American Development Bank’s annual meeting
in Guatemala, the Bank’s President Luis Alberto Moreno signed an agreement of understanding with
Zhou Xiaochuan, the head of the People’s Bank of China, to formalize talks over Beijing’s request to
become a member. In November 2008, China became the third Asian nation to join the bank, after
South Korea and Japan. Even former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson asserts, “China
obviously is a big player, a global economic player, and that’s obviously a good thing for
Latin America.
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Venezuela 1NC Link
American oil investment incites tensions with China and collapses relations. Competition in
the region has the unique potential to escalate.
Tania, Master of Science (M.Sc.), International Relations and Affairs from the University of
Amsterdam, 2012
[Maxime, “China’s energy security¶ strategy towards Venezuela,” July 1,
http://epa.iias.asia/files/Maxime%20Tania%20%20Chinas%20energy%20security%20strategy%20towards%20Venezuela%20%20Transnationalization%20and%20the%20geopolitical%20impact%20of%20the%20SinoVenezuelan%20relationship.pdf]
In furtherance to what is discussed above, it is interesting to illustrate whether the constraints to
expanding ¶ the Sino-Venezuelan relations stems from the fact that, both for China and Venezuela,
the U.S. is a more ¶ attractive option. With regard to the U.S.-Venezuelan relations, the advantages
of geographical proximity ¶ and processing Venezuelan oil in the U.S. has previously been discussed
and concludes that, despite ¶ Venezuela´s political friction, doing oil business is quite lucrative. But
why is China likely to benefit more ¶ from a benign U.S. than a strategic partnership with Venezuela?
The Sino-U.S. relations are the final factor¶ requiring discussion in order to assess the geopolitical
impact that the relationship between China and ¶ Venezuela have on the world. ¶ Some would
assess China’s oil diplomacy and its quest for overseas energy resources as a negative ¶ component
to its relations with various countries. As China is strengthening its relations with oil-producing ¶ and
exporting countries, constituting a great competitor for other countries that rely on oil imports, China is
¶ likely to undermine their oil security and contravene their policies towards oil-producing countries ¶
(Hongyi, 2007: 530). In scrambling for energy resources, both China and the U.S. as the world’s
major ¶ powers want to project their influence on the world’s geopolitical regions. Although
Latin America may be ¶ the backyard of the U.S., for both China and the U.S. Latin America is
turning into another geopolitical ¶ region. China’s relations with Latin American countries in
general and Venezuela in particular, have ¶ primarily emphasized on their economic relations
in terms of trade and investments. Along these lines, ¶ China could be reducing U.S.’ opportunity
to have trade relations and make investments in the region ¶ instead. The fact that China’s military
relations with countries would affect the U.S., could be construed as ¶ an upcoming threat to U.S.
national security. Although China’s power projection on the world can ¶ generally be characterized as
‘soft power’, China is also growing security relations with its international ¶ partners. China claims
that its militarization in these countries is a natural consequence of the need it has to ¶ protect its
interests from potential rivals. It is hard to tell whether or not the U.S. should be keeping a close ¶
eye on this, still, minor threat to preserve its national security. Also, the consolidation of China’s
political ¶ relations with U.S. opposing parties, fuels tensions between the U.S. and China
whether this is justified or ¶ not.
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Link– Economic Engagement with Venezuela crowds out China
[
] China is expanding its influence into Latin America now—increasing US economic
engagement with the region allows us to push China back and contain its spread of influence
Hearn, Australian Research Council Future Fellow at the University of Sydney China Studies
Centre, 2013
(Adrian, May 1st, “China and Latin America: Economy and Society”, Latin American Policy Volume 4,
Issue 1, pages 24–35, June 2013, dml)
Although some Chinese “investments” may not register as economic transactions, their
significance should be evaluated in the context of contemporary Latin American politics.
Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Ecuador are building a trade network called the Bolivarian
Alliance for the Americas (ALBA), which has proven more successful than the (now abandoned) U.S.backed Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). In addition to creating an ALBA Development Bank,
the network promotes the exchange and bartering of resources, particularly Venezuelan oil and
assistance with debt relief for Cuban doctors, the use of Ecuadorian oil refining facilities, Bolivian
coca and soy products, and Nicaraguan meat and dairy. Chinese assistance with physical and human
development initiatives fits neatly into this model. Such exchanges may not produce immediate
financial returns, but as Hugo Chávez pointed out during a February 2006 public speech in
Havana, their value lies in stable alliances, face-to-face cooperation, direct assistance to poor
communities, and long-term economic outcomes. As Chinese inroads into Latin America
deepen, the United States must balance its strategic and commercial interests in new ways.
Mrozinski, Williams, Kent, & Tyner (2002) point out that, although Latin American resource
exports fuel China's economic growth, this process serves the interests of U.S. corporations
with manufacturing operations in China. The resulting conflict of strategic and economic
interests was a little-discussed motivating force behind the FTAA negotiations. A crucial
component of the FTAA was the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), whose political
merits George W. Bush emphasized when he pushed it through Congress on a combined national
security and economic platform (Economist, 2005). Bush said that the political logic behind CAFTA
was to shore up democracy in Central America rather than leave it prey to the intervention of
foreign socialist governments. Meanwhile, CAFTA's economic logic lies in a value-adding
business environment in Latin America that could lure investors—particularly those from the
United States—away from China. If CAFTA and some revived variant of the FTAA ever
succeed in bringing this about, the conflict between U.S. economic and political interests will
diminish, potentially clearing the way for more-assertive measures from Washington to
contain China's influence in the Western Hemisphere.
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Link: Economic Engagement with Latin America increases ties with US
[
] An economic approach to relations draws Latin American countries closer to the US.
Valencia, contributing writer for Global Voices Online, 2013
(Robert, “U.S. and Latin America – Economic Cooperation Without Militarization?”, 5/20/13
www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/05/20/us-and-latin-america-economic-cooperation-withoutmilitarization)¶
In May, President Barack Obama visited Mexico and Costa Rica and vowed to strengthen economic
ties with these two countries and the rest of Latin America. He pledged to expand renewable energy
development and education initiatives in recognition of the joined fates of the United States and Latin
America. This approach to Latin America is refreshing, but its impact on the ongoing War on Drugs
remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, the United States bears much of the responsibility for the failed
campaign, but the Obama administration has seen that some Latin American countries are
taking their own lead in tackling the drug trade and are increasingly relying less on
Washington. The Obama administration, for its part, has realized that shifting the legendary
treatment of Latin America as the U.S.’ “backyard” to an economic approach would draw Latin
America closer to Washington, especially given the fact that Latin American leaders like
Mexico’s Enrique Peña Nieto and Brazilian President Dilma Rouseff want to be considered trade
partners and not U.S. subordinates.
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Link: Increasing trade with Latin America shuts out China
[
] Increasing economic engagement through trade shuts out Chinese interests
Johnson, Senior Policy Analyst for Latin America at the Heritage foundation, 2005
[Stephen,.”Balancing China's Growing Influence in Latin America”, 10/24/05,
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-latinamerica]
The United States and China have competing inter-ests in Latin America. Washington would
like to see its hemispheric neighbors develop into stable, demo-cratic, prosperous trade
partners that embrace the rule of law. Beijing sees the region as a source of raw materials, a
market for manufactured goods, and a platform for power projection. U.S. interests probably
coincide more with Latin American needs. In con-trast, China represents an opportunity to
temper American dominance with broader alliances. Regrettably, Chinese aid and commodity
imports may buy time for state industries, powerful presi-dents, and influential oligarchs. Most of all,
such commerce could delay needed reforms and indus-trialization that might lift Latin America's near
majority underclass out of poverty. America's strength is competition, and it should influence the
rules of the game in that direction. As a good neighbor and in its own and Latin America's
interests, the United States should: Accelerate free trade agreements. Free trade agreements
have been the hallmark of U.S. pol-icies toward the region since the 1990s. As an inducement,
America should drop its agricul-tural and steel subsidies that dissuade potential partners and cost
taxpayers money. Improved U.S. trade relations with Andean neighbors (and eventually Southern
Cone countries) will open market access for both U.S. and Latin American enterprises and
provide an outlet for industrial growth. Adopt more comprehensive relationships. Single-issue
diplomacy that emphasizes U.S. interests, such as counternarcotics, leaves vacu-ums in other
areas such as security assistance and trade capacity development that other powers can fill. Plan
Colombia is working because the United States is helping Colombia to combat terrorism,
expand public safety zones, strengthen institutions, reactivate the economy, and promote rural
peace.[11] Cut red tape on assistance. This policy should be followed to the greatest extent possible.
Per-formance requirements are blunt instruments that do not cover every situation. Constraints such
as annual certifications on counternarcot-ics cooperation and Article 98 letters that with-hold security
assistance occasionally backfire by withdrawing support for allies in areas of mutual interest. If
Congress considers such restrictions absolutely necessary, it should tai-lor them to suspend only
economic aid that is not crucial to immediate U.S. interests. Press harder for reforms and use public
diplomacy. Once Latin America had elected leaders and fledgling markets in the 1990s, U.S. support
for democracy and economic reforms declined. Although each country is responsible for solving its
own problems, exter-nal pressure can encourage progress. U.S. pub-lic diplomacy, which is mostly
reactive toward Latin America, should be strengthened and more supportive of U.S.
development goals.
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Link: US engagement with Venezuela perceived by China
[
] Plan will be seen as interference by China
Snow, Washington Editor of the Oil and Gas Journal, 2013
(Nick, “US can play constructive Western Hemisphere role, House panel told,” 4/29/2013,
http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-111/issue-4d/general-interest/us-can-play-constructivewestern-hemisphere.html, JMP)
Other witnesses emphasized that the US will need to not make other countries feel it is not
interfering in their internal affairs as it offers encouragement and assistance. That may prove
difficult as China and other countries from outside the region negotiate resource agreements
with teams of state energy companies and national banks, they conceded.
"The US still leads the world in energy technology," said David L. Goldwyn, the Special Envoy and
Coordinator for International Energy Affairs at the State Department during 2009-11 who now heads
Goldwyn Strategies LLC. "It also has a business development model that is more favorable than
China's, which is increasingly seen as colonial with employees who keep to themselves and don't
work to help develop local economies."
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Answers to: United States Won’t Crowd out China from Latin America
[
]
[
] Strong relations in Latina America are necessary for China to maintain access, US can
crowd China out diplomatically.
Ellis, Professor of National Security Studies at the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies,
2011
(R. Evan Ellis, Dr. R. Evan Ellis is a professor of national security studies, modeling, gaming, and
simulation with the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies, with a research focus on Latin America’s
relationships with external actors, including China, “Chinese Soft Power in Latin America: A Case
Study”, http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/images/jfq-60/JFQ60_85-91_Ellis.pdf) (JN)
As with the United States and other Western countries, as China becomes more involved in
business and other operations in Latin America, an increasing number of its nationals will be
vulnerable to hazards common to the region, such as kidnapping, crime, protests, and related
problems. The heightened presence of Chinese petroleum companies in the northern jungle region
of Ecuador, for example, has been associated with a series of problems, including the takeover of
an oilfield operated by the Andes petroleum consortium in Tarapoa in November 2006, and protests
in Orellana related to a labor dispute with the Chinese company Petroriental in 2007 that resulted in
the death of more than 35 police officers and forced the declaration of a national state of
emergency. In 2004, ethnic Chinese shopkeepers in Valencia and Maracay, Venezuela, became the
focus of violent protests associated with the Venezuelan recall referendum. As such incidents
increase, the PRC will need to rely increasingly on a combination of goodwill and fear to deter
action against its personnel, as well as its influence with governments of the region, to
resolve such problems when they occur. Blocking the Consolidation of U.S. Influence in the
Region and Its Institutions. The rise of China is intimately tied to the global economy through trade,
financial, and information flows, each of which is highly dependent on global institutions and
cooperation. Because of this, some within the PRC leadership see the country’s sustained
growth and development, and thus the stability of the regime, threatened if an actor such as
the United States is able to limit that cooperation or block global institutions from supporting
Chinese interests. In Latin America, China’s attainment of observer status in the OAS in 2004 and
its acceptance into the IADB in 2009 were efforts to obtain a seat at the table in key regional
institutions, and to keep them from being used “against” Chinese interests. In addition, the PRC has
leveraged hopes of access to Chinese markets by Chile, Peru, and Costa Rica to secure
bilateral free trade agreements, whose practical effect is to move Latin America away from a
U.S.-dominated trading block (the Free Trade Area of the Americas) in which the PRC would
have been disadvantaged.
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Answers to: United States Won’t Crowd out China from Latin America
[
]
[
] China’s market potential, influence in Latin America, and perception of emergence are
key to soft power. US economic engagement in the region upsets China’s growth.
Ellis, Assistant Professor of National Security Studies at the National Defense University 2011
[R. Evan.. “Chinese Soft Power in Latin America: A Case Study” Joint Force Quarterly, Vol 60. 2011.
http://www.ndu.edu/press/chinese-soft-power-latin-america.html]
In general, the bases of Chinese soft power differ from those of the United States, leading
analysts to underestimate that power when they compare the PRC to the United States on those
factors that are the sources of U.S. influence, such as the affinity of the world's youth for American
music, media, and lifestyle, the widespread use of the English language in business and technology,
or the number of elites who have learned their professions in U.S. institutions. It is also important to
clarify that soft power is based on perceptions and emotion (that is, inferences), and not
necessarily on objective reality. Although China's current trade with and investment position in
Latin America are still limited compared to those of the United States,3 its influence in the
region is based not so much on the current size of those activities, but rather on hopes or
fears in the region of what it could be in the future.¶ Because perception drives soft power, the
nature of the PRC impact on each country in Latin America is shaped by its particular
situation, hopes, fears, and prevailing ideology. The "Bolivarian socialist" regime of Hugo Chávez
in Venezuela sees China as a powerful ally in its crusade against Western "imperialism," while
countries such as Peru, Chile, and Colombia view the PRC in more traditional terms as an important
investor and trading partner within the context of global free market capitalism. ¶ The core of Chinese
soft power in Latin America, as in the rest of the world, is the widespread perception that the
PRC, because of its sustained high rates of economic growth and technology development, will
present tremendous business opportunities in the future, and will be a power to be reckoned
with globally. In general, this perception can be divided into seven areas:¶ hopes for future
access to Chinese markets¶ hopes for future Chinese investment¶ influence of Chinese entities
and infrastructure in Latin America¶ hopes for the PRC to serve as a counterweight to the
United States and Western institutions¶ China as a development model¶ affinity for Chinese
culture and work ethic¶ China as "the wave of the future."¶ In each of these cases, the soft power
of the PRC can be identified as operating through distinct sets of actors: the political
leadership of countries, the business community, students and youth, and the general
population.
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Answers to: United States Won’t Crowd out China from Latin America
[
]
[
] Both the United States and China view engagement in the region as a zero sum
proposition.
Watson, Professor of Strategy at National War College, 2007
(Cynthia A., Professor of Strategy at National War College, Washington, D.C. ENTER THE
DRAGON? China’s Presence in Latin America, 2007,
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/EnterDragonFinal.pdf)
Beijing probably might not have increased its role in Latin America had the Middle East not
been a major distraction for Washington over the past five and a half years. Washington has
wanted Beijing to modernize its economy. This was bound to create more economic, diplomatic, and
trade prowess for China as it has reached beyond the isolationism of the Cultural Revolution,
particularly in the newly globalized world. In many ways, Beijing’s increased involvement in Latin
America reflects the unanticipated consequence of getting what the West hoped for from China.
But, the inability of Washington to consider anything beyond the concerns about terrorism
spreading around the world, and trying to salvage a peace of some sort without nuclear weapons in
the Middle East, is having consequences for U.S. interests in other parts of the world. For
cultural and geographic reasons, the ties between the United States and Latin America ought to
be stronger than those between China and the Latins. Expectations of the strength of Latin
America–U.S. ties have probably always been unrealistic and frankly ahistorical; the two parts of
the world actually have a number of fundamental differences. But the distance between Latin
America’s experiences and those of China are even vaster, ranging from religion to ethnic
homogeneity to historical roles in the world. Washington must make a more concerted effort to
act as a genuine partner with the region, rather than relegating it to the position of secondary
or tertiary thought that assumes absolute U.S. leadership.
The United States and China claim that each is serious about adopting the economic
philosophy that undergirds capitalism: economic growth is a net benefit for all, not a zero sum
game. If true, China, Latin America, and the United States benefi t from the greater Chinese
engagement in this region because it creates competition. Pure economic theory, however,
always runs up against political philosophies, leading to trade confl icts, protectionism, and alltoo-often a zero sum view based on the international relations theory of realpolitik: what’s good
for my adversary must be bad for me.
The risks of arousing realpolitik in the United States, particularly as the nation faces increased
frustration with the reality of the Middle East, is signifi cant, probably more than the PRC bargained
for when it began engaging more with Latin America over the past decade. It appears unlikely
that Beijing will seriously accelerate its involvement in the region because of the number of
Congressional hearings, public conferences and assessments, and other warnings alerting the United
States to China having discovered Latin America. To accelerate its involvement would risk the
relatively strong relations with Washington at a time when other trade problems and overall concerns
about China’s growing power are already rising in the United States.
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Impact: Chinese Growth provide regional stability in Asia
[
] Strong Chinese growth key to solve Asian stability, North Korean proliferation, and
terrorism.
Krawitz, Visiting Senior Fellow @ NDU, former Chief of Staff, U.S. Army, 2010.
(Howard M., , “China’s trade opening and implications for regional stability” The People’s Liberation
Army and China in Transition – National Defense University Press -http://www.scribd.com/doc/3099389/the-peoples-liberation-army-and-china-in-transition)
A strong services sector, and the millions of jobs it will create, would not only support a real
middle class but also slow growth in China’s chronically unemployed underclass, a worrisome
source of destabilizing social pres- sure. China must place over 10 million new workers into the
economy every year. It must also find jobs for an estimated 150 million unemployed migrants, a
number expected to swell by at least 5 to 6 million a year. Again, domestic stability is the issue.
Domestic stability in China benefits America. Comfortable, prosperous Chinese citizens are more
likely to share concerns similar to those Americans have and be more willing to cooperate on the
range of issues relating to such concerns. For example, China already shows increased interest in
working with U.S. officials and private experts on environmental problems (for example,
pollution, hazardous waste, and transportation), drug trafficking, medicine, and public health. These
are now issues of real concern for Chinese citizens in more prosperous areas of the country. They
are also issues that transcend borders and have the potential to draw China into the international
arena as a nation with a stake in making cooperation work. Dialogue on matters of mutual interest
promotes communication, increased cooperation, and, ultimately, trust. A wealthy, stable China can
serve U.S. regional security interests. A China that risks tangible loss from aggressive and
confrontational behavior should be less likely to favor precipitous action and conflict. It
should be more likely to be interested in preserving regional peace and stability, more open to
consulting with Pacific Rim neighbors, and more willing to cooperate on regional security issues,
strategies, and disputes. Speaking from a vantage point of growing economic strength and military
capability would give Beijing the respect, prestige, and diplomatic stature it craves, making it
easier for China to see itself as a player whose opinion is given serious weight by peers. This could calm
Chinese fears of being marginalized or contained, making it easier for China to find common
cause with the United States, Japan, and others in the region in maintaining calm and
promoting dialogue on Korean Peninsula security issues, combating international terrorism
and piracy, and perhaps even becoming more involved in curbing the proliferation of weapons
of mass destruction.
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Growth Good – Solves Problems
Chinese growth good- key to solving climate change and terrorism
Nye 6-16-13 - American political scientist and former Dean of the John F. Kennedy School of
Government at Harvard University. (Joseph S. Nye Jr, June 16 th 2013, A smarter way for U.S. to deal
with China, http://www.appeal-democrat.com/articles/china-125847-united-states.html)
When nations worry too much about power transitions, their leaders may overreact or follow
strategies that are dangerous. As Thucydides described it, the Peloponnesian War — in which the
Greek city-state system tore itself apart — was caused by the rise in the power of Athens and the fear
that created in Sparta. Similarly, World War I, which destroyed the centrality of the European state
system in the world, is often said to have been caused by the rise in power of Germany and the fear
that created in Britain. (Though the causes of both wars were also much more complex.)
Some analysts predict that a similar scenario will be the story of power in the 21st century: The rise of
China will create fear in the United States, which will lead to a great conflict. But that is bad history.
By 1900, Germany had already passed Britain in industrial strength. In other words, the United States
has more time to deal with China's growing power than Britain had to deal with Germany's, and the
United States does not have to be as fearful. If it were to be too fearful, both sides might overreact.
The Chinese, thinking America was in decline, would push too hard, and Americans, worrying about
the rise of China, would go too far.
The best way to avoid that is by having a very clear-eyed view of all dimensions of power and how
they are changing. The recent Sunnylands summit between President Obama and Chinese President
Xi Jinping was a step in this direction.
Another reason it is important not to be too fearful is the diffusion of power. China and the United
States — as well as Europe, Japan and other nations — will be facing new transnational challenges
on issues such as climate change, terrorism, cyber security and pandemics. These issues, which will
only become more urgent, will require cooperation, including help in many cases from
nongovernmental agencies.
Obama's 2010 National Security Strategy referred to the fact that the United States has to think of
power as positive-sum, not just zero-sum. In other words, there may be times when it is good for the
United States (and the world) if Chinese power increases.
Take, for example, China's power to control and reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, the one area
where China is undoubtedly a superpower. We should be eager to see China increase its capacities
here, including the development of its shale gas reserves. This is a win-win.
In meeting many of the new transnational challenges, the United States has to get away from thinking
just about power over others and think about power with others. We do not want to become so fearful
that we are not able to find ways to cooperate with China.
World politics today is different from that of the last two centuries. It is now like a three-dimensional
chess game in which interstate military power is highly concentrated in the United States but
interstate economic power is distributed in a multipolar manner and power over transnational issues
such as climate change, terrorism and pandemics is highly diffused. The structure of power is not
unipolar, multipolar or chaotic; it is all three at the same time. Thus, a smart strategy must handle
different distributions of power in different domains and understand the trade-offs among them.
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US-China Relations Impact
[ ] China-US relations are about economics & fighting for new markets
Wickham 6-11 (DeWayne, “Wickham: U.S.-China cyber spying not a big surprise”, USA Today, June
11 2013, http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2013/06/10/obama-china-cyberspying-dewaynewickham/2405713/)//CB
With a shooting war largely out of the question for two nuclear powers with sane leadership, the
struggle for global hegemony between the U.S. and China has been reduced to an economic
struggle. While the two countries have engaged in some military muscle flexing, most of it has
happened along the Pacific Rim and the South China Sea. That chest-beating by the U.S. and China
is aimed largely at building strategic alliances and securing economic advantage among countries in
those regions. In this competition, the military and economic interests of China and the U.S. are
conjoined -- which makes the use of cyberattacks as much a strategy for victory as a well-executed
flanking movement was for Gen. George Patton's tank corps during the Battle of the Bulge. In
explaining his administration's decision to engage in a limited surveillance of the telephone and
Internet activities of Americans, Obama said domestic cybersnooping is necessary to keep
Americans safe from attack. While the president's defense of this program of "modest
encroachments" of personal privacy has surprised many Americans, the global cyberspace war being
waged between the U.S. and China should not.
[ ] US-Sino direct competition in Latin America undermines relations.
Cerna 11( Michael, a graduate student in International Policy Management, “China’s Growing
Presence in Latin America: Implications for U.S. and Chinese Presence in the Region”
http://www.chinacenter.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-s-andchinese-presence-in-the-region/, April 15, 2011)
As it stands, the Chinese are not broadening their relations with the region in a way that directly
competes with the United States. China is strictly concerned with commodities, including oil. U.S.
President Barack Obama recently signed an agreement with Brazil’s Petrobras that will allow the oil
company to drill in the Gulf of Mexico. This symbolic move could cause tensions to increase as the
world’s two largest oil consumers battle over rights to Brazilian oil. In that regard, the competition may
go beyond a race to Latin commodities and move into the realm of fighting for political influence. It is
odd to t2hink that the United States would need to compete for hemispheric dominance with a country
on the other side of the globe, but China’s actions and increasing integration into the region tell us
that such a scenario may one day arise. Given the proximity and importance of Latin America to the
United States, this region could be the symbolic battle that best measures the continued hegemony of
the U.S. versus China.
With both the U.S. and China jockeying for influence in a world where political power relations are
changing, Latin America has the most to gain. The primary concern for the region is that it does not
become a battle ground for a neo-Cold War between China and the U.S. Brazil already has clearly
stated its concerns regarding Chinese influence. Yet, despite this tension, Brazil is now too reliant on
China to turn away from the path on which Lula set the country. Agricultural exports to China are
crucial to Brazil’s economy. Lula’s Brazil supported China politically and made clear moves away
from the United States. Now Rouseff’s administration has welcomed Barack Obama with open arms.
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With all three major actors going through stages that could influence the global economic and political
landscape – China implementing its 12th five-year plan, Brazil cementing itself as a prominent world
player and the U.S. still recovering from a terrible financial crisis – this dynamic relationship is one
that deserves close attention from all those concerned with the future of China-U.S. relations. Where
Brazil and the rest of Latin America were once looking for an alternative to U.S. influence and found
China, the region may now be looking to the U.S. to strike a balance with growing Chinese influence.
With the global ambitions of Latin America, namely Brazil, it is essential to maintain close ties with
both the United States and China. The world will be watching.
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Relations Good
[ ] US-China relations key to combat warming and improve the global economy
Chen and Hachigian ’09 (Winny Chen and Nina Hachigian, “The Importance of US-China
Relations”, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/china/news/2009/01/28/5497/the-importance-ofu-s-china-relations/) (JN)
China could show even more leadership along these lines, offering funds to more countries, earning
more credibility for being a “responsible stakeholder,” and garnering good will from developing and
developed countries alike. A partnership with China on addressing the global economic crisis is
critical, and ongoing disagreements on issues such as currency should not preclude cooperation and
collaboration toward that ultimate goal wherever possible.
In the long run, President Barack Obama will be judged on the whole bilateral relationship, but
especially on his ability to bring China into a regime to address global warming. This is the issue that
has the potential to define and animate our bilateral relationship. Together, the United States and
China account for 40 percent of global emissions. Breaking this inadvertent “suicide pact” is the epic
challenge of our era.
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Answers to: Latin America is not key to Chinese Growth
[
]
[
] Chinese influence in Latin America is key to sustained growth – new markets.
Ellis, Professor of National Security Studies at the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies,
2011
(R. Evan Ellis, Dr. R. Evan Ellis is a professor of national security studies, modeling, gaming, and
simulation with the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies, with a research focus on Latin America’s
relationships with external actors, including China, “Chinese Soft Power in Latin America: A Case
Study”, http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/images/jfq-60/JFQ60_85-91_Ellis.pdf) (JN)
Access to Latin American Markets. Latin American markets are becoming increasingly valuable
for Chinese companies because they allow the PRC to expand and diversify its export base at
a time when economic growth is slowing in traditional markets such as the United States and
Europe. The region has also proven an effective market for Chinese efforts to sell more
sophisticated, higher value added products in sectors seen as strategic, such as automobiles,
appliances, computers and telecommunication equipment, and aircraft. In expanding access for its
products through free trade accords with countries such as Chile, Peru, and Costa Rica, and
penetrating markets in Latin American countries with existing manufacturing sectors such as
Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina, the PRC has often had to overcome resistance by organized and
often politically well-connected established interests in those nations. In doing so, the hopes of
access to Chinese markets and investments among key groups of businesspeople and government
officials in those nations have played a key role in the political will to overcome the resistance.
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Answers to: Latin America is not key to Chinese Growth
[
]
[
] Access to Latin American markets are key to Chinese economic growth.
Li, Professor of Political Science, Merrimack College, 2007
( He, “China’s growing interest in Latin America and its implications", Journal of Strategic Studies Vol
30 Issue 4-5, p. online)
Among the consequences of Deng Xiaoping’s modernization strategy has been an explosive growth
of China’s trade with the world.19 With its share in the world trade expected to more than triple by
2020, China will most likely become the second largest trading nation, after the United States.20
It has already become the third largest exporter behind the United States and Germany and an
emerging exporter of capital. Its total foreign exchange reserves topped $1 trillion and its gross
national income reached $2.3 trillion in 2006.21 As its economic clout increases, China has three
major goals: (a) to gain recognition of full market status;22 (b) to secure the raw materials it
needs and to diversify the sources in order to reduce the country’s vulnerability; (c) to
maintain a high level of access to the market in order to assure the exports of its dynamic
manufactured products. Latin America plays a role in satisfying each of these goals. Though
China’s relations with that continent have important political and security aspects, at present the most
prominent dimension is economic. The region exhibits many features that complement the
Chinese needs and strategy: Latin America has an abundance of raw materials and
agricultural products and the region is in a good position to supply China with services such
as tourism. It has potential to consume Chinese exports and thereby to encourage their
diversification.
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Impact- Chinese Softpower
[
] Expanding Chinese influence is necessary to solve for a number of global challengesincluding global warming, poverty, and international conflict.
Zhang, Prof of Diplomacy and IR at the Geneva School of Diplomacy, 2012
[Weiwei. “The Rise of China’s Political Softpower” 9/4/12 http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/201209/04/content_26421330.htm ]
As China plays an increasingly significant role in the world, its soft power must be attractive
both domestically as well as internationally. The world faces many difficulties, including
widespread poverty, international conflict, the clash of civilizations and environmental
protection. Thus far, the Western model has not been able to decisively address these issues;
the China model therefore brings hope that we can make progress in conquering these
dilemmas. Poverty and development The Western-dominated global economic order has
worsened poverty in developing countries. Per-capita consumption of resources in developed
countries is 32 times as large as that in developing countries. Almost half of the population in the
world still lives in poverty. Western countries nevertheless still are striving to consolidate their wealth
using any and all necessary means. In contrast, China forged a new path of development for its
citizens in spite of this unfair international order which enabled it to virtually eliminate
extreme poverty at home. This extensive experience would indeed be helpful in the fight
against global poverty. War and peace In the past few years, the American model of "exporting
democracy'" has produced a more turbulent world, as the increased risk of terrorism
threatens global security. In contrast, China insists that "harmony is most precious". It is
more practical, the Chinese system argues, to strengthen international cooperation while
addressing both the symptoms and root causes of terrorism. The clash of civilizations Conflict
between Western countries and the Islamic world is intensifying. "In a world, which is diversified
and where multiple civilizations coexist, the obligation of Western countries is to protect their own
benefits yet promote benefits of other nations," wrote Harvard University professor Samuel P.
Huntington in his seminal 1993 essay "The Clash of Civilizations?". China strives for "being
harmonious yet remaining different", which means to respect other nations, and learn from
each other. This philosophy is, in fact, wiser than that of Huntington, and it's also the reason
why few religious conflicts have broken out in China. China's stance in regards to reconciling
cultural conflicts, therefore, is more preferable than its "self-centered" Western
counterargument. Environmental protection Poorer countries and their people are the most
obvious victims of global warming, yet they are the least responsible for the emission of
greenhouse gases. Although Europeans and Americans have a strong awareness of
environmental protection, it is still hard to change their extravagant lifestyles. Chinese
environmental protection standards are not yet ideal, but some effective environmental ideas
can be extracted from the China model.
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Answers to: Chinese Softpower Fails
[
]
[
] Chinese influence’s effective in the context of Latin America
Ellis, Assistant Professor of National Security Studies at the National Defense University 2011
[R. Evan.. “Chinese Soft Power in Latin America: A Case Study” Joint Force Quarterly, Vol 60. 2011.
http://www.ndu.edu/press/chinese-soft-power-latin-america.html]
China as "the Wave of the Future." Perhaps China's greatest source of soft power is the most
intangible. China's emergence as a key global player is a phenomenon that has assumed
almost mystical proportions within Latin America. The rapid growth in PRC trade with and
investment in Latin America, and the expansion of contacts at all levels, only reinforce the
perceived significance of "China's rise," as observed from Latin America.¶ In addition to
opportunism for commerce, Latin America's belief in the rise of China and its globally
transformational implications draws the attention of the people and leaders of the region to
the PRC and shapes their course of action. Costa Rican president Oscar Arias, for example,
established regular diplomatic relations with the PRC as a necessary part of ensuring the
relevance of his country as an international actor.¶ At the popular level, the rise of China is most
likely behind a swelling interest in the Chinese language in the region. The dedication of 5 or
more years by students to gain a basic capability in the Mandarin language and its character set, for
example, is arguably driven by their calculation that the ability to communicate in Chinese will
be fundamental to the pursuit of opportunities in the PRC, and with Chinese businessmen and
government officials, in the future.
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Answers To: Chinese Influence Bad
[
]
[
] Chinese interaction in Latin American market’s inevitable
Shaiken et al, Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley, 2013
[Harley, and Enrique Peters – Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And
Adrian Hearn – Centro de Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico.
China and the New Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico
Relations, 2013. Pg 7-8]
Several policy recommendations result from this analysis. First, solely bilateral negotiations, i.e.
between just the U.S. and China or just Mexico and China, are not sufficient given the quick and
profound shifts in trade occurring in the NAFTA region. Thus, long-term NAFTA-China trade
negotiations seem to not only be plausible, but inevitable, given the comprehensive production
and trade integration between Mexico and the U.S. Second, NAFTA countries require
additional policies and incentives to encourage competitiveness in the region, particularly
regarding the manufacturing sector. Behind the substantial trade losses since the year 2000 are
million of jobs. If the governments of the United States and Mexico are sincere in their aim to
maintain and increase high-quality jobs, manufacturing will play a critical role. Coordination of
policies in these areas within NAFTA – from industrial and innovation policies to research and
development – should be promoted actively not only at the national level, but at the regional level as
well.
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Turns case: Latin American Growth
[
] China – not the US – is key to Latin American growth
Ellis, Assistant Professor of National Security Studies at the National Defense University 2011
[R. Evan.. “Chinese Soft Power in Latin America: A Case Study” Joint Force Quarterly, Vol 60. 2011.
http://www.ndu.edu/press/chinese-soft-power-latin-america.html]
Access to Latin American Markets. Latin American markets are becoming increasingly valuable
for Chinese companies because they allow the PRC to expand and diversify its export base at
a time when economic growth is slowing in traditional markets such as the United States and Europe.
The region has also proven an effective market for Chinese efforts to sell more sophisticated,
higher value added products in sectors seen as strategic, such as automobiles, appliances,
computers and telecommunication equipment, and aircraft. In expanding access for its
products through free trade accords with countries such as Chile, Peru, and Costa Rica, and
penetrating markets in Latin American countries with existing manufacturing sectors such as
Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina, the PRC has often had to overcome resistance by organized and
often politically well-connected established interests in those nations. In doing so, the hopes of
access to Chinese markets and investments among key groups of businesspeople and
government officials in those nations have played a key role in the political will to overcome
the resistance. In Venezuela, it was said that the prior Chinese ambassador to Venezuela, Zheng
Tuo, was one of the few people in the country who could call President Chávez on the telephone and
get an instant response if an issue arose regarding a Chinese company.
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Turns Case: Trade
[
] Chinese engagement boosts trade across Latin America.
Shaiken et al, Professor in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley, 2013
[Harley, and Enrique Peters – Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And
Adrian Hearn – Centro de Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico.
China and the New Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico
Relations, 2013. Pg 7-8]
Some countries may find that their shares in regional markets are diminishing with the arrival
of outside countries prompted by the framework of the WTO, yet the presence and influence of
external countries may bring new opportunities to these regions. For example, in regards to the
relationship between China and Mexico, the two countries may compete to some degree in
terms of exporting to the United States. However, Chinese-Mexican relations go far beyond
exporting to the U.S. market. As an emerging power and a representative of a region enjoying
robust economic development, China now means more to Mexico economically than does the
United States.
Firstly, the adjustment of China’s economic structure may help to change the false impression
of Chinese-Mexican trade relations and allow Mexico to further pursue interests in economic
cooperation with China. In regards to Chinese-Mexican relations, the common perception is that
the two countries compete with each other in the U.S. market due to the fact that their exports
are very similar. However, this may not necessarily be the case, as some scholars have pointed
out that the competition between China and Mexico has been exaggerated, and in fact the two
nations complement each other in more aspects than in which they compete (Xie 2005).
Moreover, China does not want to become involved in trade conflicts with other developing
countries, given that it is trying to change the mode of its economic development and update
its export structure. With a stronger focus on bolstering its domestic market and supplying more
high-value products to the world, China hopes that it can further coordinate its own production
with Mexico and other developing countries. In addition, China is able to provide Mexico with
new markets and investors. It would be erroneous, therefore, to simply define Chinese-Mexican
economic relations in terms of competition for the US market. China’s increasing engagement
with Mexico and Latin America has the potential to positively impact numerous aspects of these
transnational relations.¶
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Non-Unique: United States Engagement in Latin America is Durable
[
] US influence in Latin America’s resilient and the theory of their argument is wrong
Duddy and Mora, Former US Ambassador to Venezuela and former Assistant Secretary of
Defense,Western Hemisphere, 2013
[Patrick and Frank, “Latin America: Is U.S. influence waning?” Miami Herald, 5/1/13
http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/01/3375160/latin-america-is-us-influence.html#storylink=cpy]
Finally, one should not underestimate the resiliency of U.S. soft power in the region. The
power of national reputation, popular culture, values and institutions continues to contribute
to U.S. influence in ways that are difficult to measure and impossible to quantify. Example:
Despite 14 years of strident anti-American rhetoric during the Chávez government, tens of thousand
of Venezuelans apply for U.S. nonimmigrant visas every year, including many thousands of Chávez
loyalists.¶ Does this mean we can feel comfortable relegating U.S. relations with the hemisphere to
the second or third tier of our international concerns? Certainly not. We have real and proliferating
interests in the region. As the president and his team head to Mexico and Costa Rica, it is important
to recognize the importance of our ties to the region. ¶ We have many individual national partners
in the Americas. We don’t need a new template for relations with the hemisphere as a whole or
another grand U.S.-Latin America strategy. A greater commitment to work more intensely with
the individual countries on the issues most relevant to them would be appropriate. The United
States still has the economic and cultural heft in the region to play a fundamental role and to
advance its own interests.
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Relations are Not Zero Sum – Trade & Economics
[
] Chinese and the US do not compete for influence in Latin America it is not a zero sum
relationship.
Cerna, graduate student in International Policy Management at Kennesaw State University,
2011
( Michael, a graduate student in International Policy Management, “China’s Growing Presence in
Latin America: Implications for U.S. and Chinese Presence in the Region”
http://www.chinacenter.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-s-andchinese-presence-in-the-region/, April 15, 2011)
With both the U.S. and China making gains in the region in different sectors, there is
seemingly room for each side to grow; which implies that, in fact, trade with Latin America is not
a zero-sum game. China presents an alternative to the United States, but that is not necessarily a
bad thing. The U.S. is much more diversified than China at the moment and therefore does not
need to enter into direct competition. However, as China responds to calls from Brazil and
diversifies its investments, there is increasing worry that China is going to outmatch U.S. trade
in the region. These fears may be economically based, but there are potentially harmful political
consequences – primarily, providing Latin America with a quasi-world power as an alternative to the
U.S. Since the Monroe Doctrine, Latin America has been considered a secure sphere of influence for
the U.S. The fact that China presents a less democratic.alternative to U.S. influence presents a
major problem.
[
] Latin America isn’t zero sum- China and US can both make gains
Feinberg, Professor of International Political Economy, 2011
(Richard Feinberg, professor of international political economy, “China, Latin America, and the United
States:Congruent Interests or Tectonic Turbulence?” 2011, Latin American Research Review volume
46 number 2 http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/latin_american_research_review/v046/46.2.feinberg.html)
In China's and India's Challenge to Latin America: Opportunity or Threat?, the various
contributors—World Bank economists and consultants, including renowned specialists in
international trade—come down solidly on the side of opportunity. This is not surprising: in the
neoclassical (or neoliberal) paradigm dating back to Adam Smith and David Ricardo, and widely
accepted among trained economists, market-generated economic exchanges typically produce
mutually beneficial gains, and any losers can be compensated from the resulting surplus. In contrast
to the security games realists imagine, in which there are triumphant winners and vanquished
losers, economics is not a zero-sum game! In the arena of trade, the expanding Chinese
economy is creating both direct and indirect gains for Latin America: direct gains as China
sucks in massive quantities of raw materials (e.g., iron ore, copper, petroleum, soybeans and
other grains) and indirect gains from the rising price of natural resources (commodities in which
Latin America and especially South America have a comparative advantage) and from spillovers in
third markets (e.g., demand from China bolsters the U.S. economy, which in turn can purchase
more Latin American products at higher prices).
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Engagement with Latin America is not Zero Sum- Cooperation
Concerns are hype; it’s not zero sum – five reasons
Shixue, professor at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, 2011
(Jiang Shixue, “The U.S Factor in Sino-Latin America Relations”,
http://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/the-u-s-worry-factor-in-sino-latin-american-relations/)
The U.S. concerns are unnecessary and unfounded.
First , both China and Latin America have been opening to the outside world. In the age of
globalization, both should cooperate to promote South-South collaboration. As a matter of fact,
further cooperation between China and Latin America will benefit regional peace and
development in the Asia-Pacific and Latin America. This outcome would certainly be welcomed by
the United States.
Second , it is well-known that Latin America has been implementing reforms and opening to the
outside world for almost two decades. It endeavors to attract more foreign investment and
liberalize the market to stimulate growth. As a result, China is only one of the economic partners
Latin America has been trying to cooperate with.
Third , China’s relations with Latin America are for economic purposes, not for political
outcomes to be used against the U.S. China well understands that Latin America is the backyard
of the United States, so there is no need for it to challenge American influence.
Fourth , China’s cooperation with Latin America in military and security fields is not targeting
any third party and it is hardly a secret issue. China’s first policy paper on Latin America,
published in November 2008, openly set aside one section to deal with the issue. It said: “The
Chinese side will actively carry out military exchanges and defense dialogue and cooperation with
Latin American and Caribbean countries. Mutual visits by defense and military officials of the two
sides, as well as personnel exchanges, will be enhanced.” Moreover, China’s military relations with
Latin America are undertaken according to the following principles: 1) to gain better
understanding of the Latin American military; 2) to improve professional expertise by learning
from each other; 3) never target any third party; and 4) never harm regional and hemispheric
stability. These principles are not counter to U.S. national interest and dominance in the western
hemisphere.
Finally , China does not wish to be used as a “card” against the United States. It has no
enthusiasm for getting entangled in the problems of U.S.-Latin American relations.
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Chinese Engagement Bad - Environment
China economic engagement bad – speeds up deindustrialization and exploits
environmentally sensitive areas
Gallagher, professor of international relations at Boston University, 2013
(Kevin, professor of international relations at Boston University and a research fellow at the Global
Development and Environment Institute, “Latin America playing a risky game by welcoming in the
Chinese dragon” 5/10/2013, http://www.bu.edu/bucflp/2013/05/30/5464/) (JN)
While the Chinese do not attach policy conditions to their loans, they have required that borrowers
contract Chinese firms, buy Chinese equipment, and sometimes sign oil sale agreements that require
nations to send oil to China in exchange for the loans instead of local currency.
Chinese investment accentuates the deindustrialisation of Latin America. Large scale, capital
intensive commodities production is not very employment-intensive, nor does it link well with
other sectors of an economy. Dependence on commodities can cause a "resource curse" where
the exchange rate appreciates such that exporters of manufacturing and services industries
can't compete in world markets – and thus contribute to deindustrialisation and economic
vulnerability.
Producing natural resource-based commodities also brings major environmental risk. Many of
China's iron, soy and copper projects are found in Latin America's most environmentally
sensitive areas. In areas such as the Amazon and the Andean highlands, conflict over natural
resources, property rights and sustainable livelihoods have been rife for decades.
In our report, we find that Chinese banks actually operate under a set of environmental
guidelines that surpass those of their western counterparts when at China's stage of development.
Nevertheless, those guidelines are not on par with 21st century standards for development banking.
Stronger standards should be in place at a time when environmental concerns are at an all-time high.
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Chinese Engagement Bad- Latin America Economic Growth
[
] Chinese influence in Latin America is bad – US economic engagement is
comparatively superior
Shaiken et al, Professor in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley, 2013
[Harley, and Enrique Peters – Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And
Adrian Hearn – Centro de Estudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico.
China and the New Triangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico
Relations, 2013. Pg 7-8]
However, closer ties to China also have signifi-cant disadvantages for both Latin America and
the United States:¶ Growing trade deficits. Latin American lead-ers who sign trade and
investment deals with the PRC have noticed that China's exports are more affordable than their
own goods, which contributes to trade deficits. Chinese goods are made by laborers who work for
one-third of the wages of Latin American counterparts and who tolerate worse working
conditions. Officials in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico have signaled their unease about trade with
such a hot com-petitor. In September 2005, Mexican President Vicente Fox made it clear to visiting
President Hu Jintao that dumping electronics and cloth-ing was unacceptable. For every dollar that
Mexico makes from exports to China, the PRC makes $31 from exports to Mexico.[9]¶
Disinterest in economic reform. Some ana-lysts believe that the commodities-based trade model
used by China will undermine the progress that Latin America has made toward
industrialization. While countries like Chile and Brazil have moved beyond raw materials exports,
others with powerful presidents or rul-ing oligarchies may be tempted to fall back on plantation
economics. Income gaps between the rich and poor may widen as a result. More-over, such
narrowly focused economies are vul-nerable to downturns in commodity prices. Some 44
percent of Latin Americans already live below the poverty line. If these countries fail to adopt
reforms, social inequality and political instability could depress U.S. exports to the region and
increase migration problems.¶ Scramble for resources. To obtain commodi-ties, China offers
tempting investments in infra-structure. In contrast, the United States cannot offer direct tie-ins
to state industries and can only offer development aid, now in decreasing amounts. Chinese
competition may make Mil-lennium Challenge Account (MCA) money a less effective incentive to
democratize govern-ments and liberalize markets. The one-to-two year lead time from proposal to
disbursement of MCA aid gives volatile governments a chance to back away from marketoriented perfor-mance requirements.¶
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Chinese Engagement Bad- Latin American Government Stability
[
] Chinese demand in Latin America is bad – corrupts governments and unbalances
economies
Gallagher, Professor of International Relations at Boston University, 2012
(Kevin P. Gallagher, professor at Boston University IR Department and an expert on: Economic
Development, “Capitalizing on the China Cycle: Time is Running out for Latin America”,
http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/rp/GallagherCapitalizeChinaCycle.pdf) (JN)
Even if commodities prices remain high, they may not lead to prosperity for the region. Chinese trade
and investment have been concentrated in six Latin American countries and a handful of
sectors, chiefly in primary commodities. Research shows that development has remained
elusive
for commodity-dependent countries because they become subject to the resource curse.
Demand tends to attract investment toward certain commodities at the expense of
others.
Such trade and investment can strengthen a nation’s currency as well, making it even harder
for firms outside of the extractive sector to export their products. Demand also attracts
speculative investment in commodities, associated currencies, and public debt. Such
investment is highly volatile and can make a nation prone to crises. It is also said that natural
resources development spurs corruption, making it hard for governments to be disciplined
enough to channel the profits of commodity exports into productive development. The result
can be de-industrialization, an erosion of noncommodity (and often employment-intensive)
economic sectors, and costly environmental degradation.
These trends eventually can lead to increased imports and decreased exports, creating balanceof-payments problems, and leading to poor economic performance.
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No Impact- Exports not key to Chinese Economy
[
] Domestic commerce key to Chinese economy – not exports
Weihua,writer for ChinaDaily citing IMF official, 3/14/13
(Chen,, “Domestic Demand Holds Key to Chinese Growth”,
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2013-03/14/content_16307121.htm) (JN)
A top International Monetary Fund official warned on Tuesday of the need for China to followthr
ough on plans to shift its economy from an investment-driven model to one that relies on
domestic consumption.
Zhu Min, one of the IMF's three deputy managing directors, said the key to this transition is
economic reform and the quality, rather than the rate, of growth.
Chinese GDP grew 7.8 percent in 2012, higher than the government's adjusted forecast of 7.5percent
. Although it was China's slowest rate of economic expansion since 1999, theperformance was amon
g the strongest in the world. This year, GDP is expected to grow 8 to8.25 percent.
Zhu pointed out that China's economy has been moving from a long-established focus on
exports to investment. However, the 48 percent of Chinese GDP that investment accounted forlast
year was far too high, he told a seminar at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze Schoolof Advanc
ed International Studies in Washington.
Overcapacity is a major challenge in China, where utilization of manufacturing resources hasdropped
to 60 percent, a level Zhu described as risky.
"Over-investment is a big concern and the quality of growth is a big concern," he said.
Zhu, who assumed his current post in July 2011, blamed overinvestment for constraining thewages of Chinese workers. Household income remains a very small sh
are of the country'seconomy, he said.
To maintain growth at or near current levels, China needs to keep moving toward consumptio
n as its key economic driver, the IMF official said.
This goal is stressed in the 12th Five-Year Plan (201115), as well as the Government WorkReport delivered last week by Premier Wen Jiabao at the Nation
al People's Congress.
The transition has sparked heated debate in China, and Zhu said on Tuesday that how peopletalk ab
out it is important.
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No Impact –CCP Collapse
[
] Economic decline won’t collapse the CCP
Pei, senior associate in the China Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
2009
(Minxin Pei is a, 3-12-09, “Will the Chinese Communist Party Survive the Crisis?” Foreign Affairs,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64862/minxin-pei/will-the-chinese-communist-party-survive-thecrisis)
With no end to the global crisis in sight, many are wondering how long China's economic doldrums
will last and what the political impact of stagnation will be. The conventional wisdom is that low
growth will erode the party's political legitimacy and fuel social unrest as jobless migrants and
college graduates vent their frustrations through riots and protests. Although this forecast is not
necessarily wrong, it is incomplete. Strong economic performance has been the single most
important source of legitimacy for the CCP, so prolonged economic stagnation carries the danger of
disenchanting a growing middle class that was lulled into political apathy by the prosperity of the postTiananmen years. And economic policies that favor the rich have already alienated industrial workers
and rural peasants, formerly the social base of the party. Even in recent boom years, grass-roots
unrest has been high, with close to 90,000 riots, strikes, demonstrations, and collective protests
reported annually. Such frustrations will only intensify in hard times. It might seem reasonable to
expect that challenges from the disaffected urban middle class, frustrated college graduates, and
unemployed migrants will constitute the principal threat to the party's rule. If those groups were in
fact to band together in a powerful coalition, then the world's longest-ruling party would indeed be
in deep trouble. But that is not going to happen. Such a revolutionary scenario overlooks two
critical forces blocking political change in China and similar authoritarian political systems: the
regime's capacity for repression and the unity among the elite. Economic crisis and social
unrest may make it tougher for the CCP to govern, but they will not loosen the party's hold on
power. A glance at countries such as Zimbabwe, North Korea, Cuba, and Burma shows that a
relatively unified elite in control of the military and police can cling to power through brutal force,
even in the face of abysmal economic failure. Disunity within the ruling elite, on the other hand,
weakens the regime's repressive capacity and usually spells the rulers' doom. The CCP has already
demonstrated its remarkable ability to contain and suppress chronic social protest and smallscale dissident movements. The regime maintains the People's Armed Police, a well-trained and wellequipped anti-riot force of 250,000. In addition, China's secret police are among the most capable
in the world and are augmented by a vast network of informers. And although the Internet may
have made control of information more difficult, Chinese censors can still react quickly and
thoroughly to end the dissemination of dangerous news.
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No Impact –CCP Collapse
[
] No Chinese regime collapse – too many low probability events have to occur in
tandem with one another
Chang, Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna, 2004
(Gordon Chang, “Collapse Perhaps? The Stability of the Modern Chinese State”, 4/8/04,
http://www.gordonchang.com/articles/paper.pdf)
Regime collapse is a low probability event, says Minxin Pei. Actually, he says it’s worse than that:
governments completely fail only when a series of low probability events occur at the same
time.11 Maybe it’s more precise to say that they crumble only when unlikely events happen in the
right sequence, but Pei begins to explain why there are so few instances of government failure in the
past. It’s not easy to get historical forces to converge on cue. No wonder bad systems last so
long. You need a lot to bring down a government, even a decrepit one. Political scientists, who
like to bring order to the inexplicable, tell us that a host of factors are required for regime collapse.
There must exist, for example, general discontent or even anger, solidarity among the aggrieved,
the ability to resist official action, strong leadership, demands with mass appeal, a broad
coalition, a divided government.12 Most of the listed requirements cannot be found in the
People’s Republic today—or at least they can’t be found in sufficient quantities. China, it would
seem, must be a long way from its next revolution. Whatever school of thought one belongs
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Answers to: Regional Stability Impact
[
]
[
] Chinese economy is not the driving factor for stabilizing influence in the region.
Previous downturns prove.
Blackwill, former associate dean of the Kennedy School of Government, 2009 –
(Robert, RAND, “The Geopolitical Consequences of the World Economic Recession—A Caution”,
http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP275.pdf)
Next, China. Again, five years from today. Did the recession undermine the grip of the Chinese
Communist Party on the People’s Republic of China (PRC)? No. Again, as Lee Kuan Yew stressed
in the same recent speech, “China has proven itself to be pragmatic, resilient and adaptive. The
Chinese have survived severe crises—the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution—
few societies have been so stricken. These are reasons not to be pessimistic.” Did the crisis
make Washington more willing to succumb to the rise of Chinese power because of PRC holdings of
U.S. Treasury Bonds? No. Did it alter China’s basic external direction and especially its efforts,
stemming from its own strategic analysis, to undermine the U.S. alliance system in Asia? No. Did it
cause the essence of Asian security to transform? No.
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No Impact: Chinese Soft Power Fails
[
] Chinese soft power fails, seen as an international bully not facilitator.
Boot, Senior Fellow Council on Foreign Relations, 2001
(Max, “The Rising Dragon and ‘Smart’ Diplomacy”, 27 September 2010,
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/category/contentions?author_name=boot)
For years we have been hearing about how effective Chinese diplomacy is — a supposed
contrast with a ham-handed, distracted Uncle Sam who was letting the rising dragon take over East
Asia while we weren’t paying attention. No one should underestimate the rising military challenge
posed by China. As Robert Kaplan notes in this Washington Post op-ed: China has the world’s
second-largest naval service, after only the United States. Rather than purchase warships across the
board, it is developing niche capacities in sub-surface warfare and missile technology designed to hit
moving targets at sea. At some point, the U.S. Navy is likely to be denied unimpeded access to the
waters off East Asia. China’s 66 submarines constitute roughly twice as many warships as the entire
British Royal Navy. But a funny thing happened on the way to Chinese hegemony: its rise has
alarmed pretty much all its neighbors, ranging from India and Australia to Japan and South Korea.
The latest sign of how Chinese hectoring and bullying is souring other countries is the flap
over a Chinese fishing trawler that collided with Japanese coast-guard vessels near a disputed
island in the East China Sea that is claimed by both countries. The Japanese agreed to release the
fishing captain on Friday after what the New York Times described as “a furious diplomatic
assault from China,” which included the cut-off of “ministerial-level talks on issues like joint
energy development, and curtailed visits to Japan by Chinese tourists.” In the short term, this is
a victory for China. But for the long term, it leaves hard feelings behind and convinces many more
Japanese — and other Asians — that China’s rise poses a threat to them. Keep in mind that the
Democrats, the current Japanese ruling party, came to power talking about weakening the U.S.Japanese alliance and strengthening ties with China. If China were better behaved, that might have
come to pass. But Chinese assertiveness is rubbing the Japanese the wrong way. The same is
true with South Koreans, Australians, and other key Chinese trade partners. In those countries,
too, hopes of a closer relationship with China have been frustrated; instead, they are drawing
closer to the U.S. The fundamental problem is that China’s ruling oligarchy has no Marxist
legitimacy left; its only claim to power is to foster an aggressive Chinese nationalism. That
may do wonders for support on the home front, but it is doomed to antagonize its neighbors
and possibly bring into being a de facto coalition to contain Beijing. That, at least, should be the goal
of American policy. Even as we continue to trade with China, we should make sure to curb its geopolitical ambitions. That is a goal in which we should be able to get the cooperation of many of
China’s neighbors — if we actually practice the sort of “smart power” diplomacy that the Obama-ites
came into office promising.
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No Impact: Chinese Can’t Use Soft Power
[
] Alternative causes to Chinese soft power loss and they won’t use it effectively
Walker, Senior Director of the Global Business Policy Council, 2011
(Martin, Martin, “China's soft-power hurdle”, United Press International. 28 June 2011
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/Walker/2011/06/28/Walkers-World-Chinas-soft-powerhurdle/UPI-39731309267283/)
It is far from clear that this will succeed. Three years ago, at the time of the Beijing Olympics, the
goodwill for what China called its "peaceful rise" was widespread. The World Bank's Robert
Zoellick was talking of China as a fellow stakeholder in the global economy, ready to play by the
common rules of international commerce and behavior.
That was then. This is now. Surging with self-confidence after navigating the global financial crisis,
China has been throwing its weight around in the South China Sea, alarming Vietnam, the
Philippines, Indonesia and Brunei with its insistence that the whole sea and its mineral wealth belong
to China. Japan has been shaken by some minor clashes over other disputed islands, and India
frets over China's apparent plans to start building dams in Tibet near the source of the
Brahmaputra River, which supplies about a third of northern India's water.
China's impressive investments in Africa have become controversial, since so many of the jobs
in construction are going to imported Chinese workers rather than Africans. China's readiness
to do business with unsavory regimes does not go down quite as well in the age of the democratic
upsurge of the Arab Spring as it did before.
China's latest clampdown on various dissidents and on the Internet (while also being blamed for
many cyberattacks) has caused alarm. The United Nations startled Chinese diplomats with its recent
press release expressing concerns over China's "recent wave of enforced disappearances."
Doubtless China will learn from this, even as it navigates the preliminary phases of the transition of
power to the next generation of leaders, a process that may help explain the latest crackdown on
dissidents, human-rights lawyers and other activists. And doubtless China's astute deployment of its
massive wealth to investments and various causes overseas will also pay dividends.
But the fact remains that China may well be influencing people, and it has a highly impressive
record of economic management to flaunt, but it is not exactly winning friends. Joseph Nye of
Harvard's Kennedy School of Government invented the concept of soft power, as opposed to the hard
power of coercion. He defined it as the ability to get other people and countries to want what
you want. China has yet to show it understands the distinction. It is in Beijing's own interest -- as
well as the world's -- that the Chinese leadership learns this quickly.
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