5-E CLASSROOM STEM ACTIVITY:
HURRICANE TRACKING – PREDICTING WHERE HURRICANES WILL HIT
Dr. Candace Walkington, Assistant Professor of Mathematics
Southern Methodist University
COVER STORY // EXTREME ENVIRONMENTS
THROUGH THE EYE OF THE STORM
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THROUGH THE EYE OF
THE
STORM
BY SUE HAMILTON
THE STRENGTH OF A HURRICANE
The strength of the ocean, swirling
with the force of winds over 74 miles
per hour, assaults the coast with water
surging up to 20 feet high and 100
miles inland. Up to 12 inches of rain
continues the flooding and tornadoes
spin out of this extreme environment
that we call a hurricane.
This giant mass of warm air picks up
moisture and thermal energy from the
ocean and starts circling. The intensity
of the storm builds as the air is forced
upwards—creating a center “eye” of
calm, clear skies and low pressure; an
eye wall surrounding the eye creating
the most damaging winds and heaviest
rain; and rain bands, a series of dense
clouds circling the eye wall.
As many as six hurricanes strike
the United States coastline during
the hurricane season of June through
18 LATE SPRING 2016 // STEMJOBS.COM
November, but on average two will
become major hurricanes as classified
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. This scale rates the severity
from a category 1, causing minimal
damage, to category 5, which has
catastrophic results.
In recent years, Hurricane Katrina
was the most destructive. It left 2,000
dead, hundreds of thousands of people
homeless, and caused $100 billion
in property damages when it struck
the Gulf Coast on Sept. 2, 2005. The
deadliest hurricane on record in the
U.S., according to Time Magazine, struck
and destroyed the city of Galveston,
Texas, in the year 1900, killing 8,000 to
12,000 people.
The National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),
an agency of the U.S. Department
of Commerce, is a world leader in
hurricane research and reports that the
best defense against a hurricane is early
detection to allow residents to get out
of harm’s way.
Jim Weyman, former director of
the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
in Honolulu, Hawaii, agrees. “The most
challenging part is the preparation of
accurate, timely forecasts and warnings,
especially for tornadoes, hurricanes,
floods and winter storms. These
forecasts and warnings must provide
people time to take appropriate action
to save lives and property,” he reports.
A professional meteorologist and
climatologist for 43 years, Jim served
the government in the United States
Air Force and NOAA National Weather
Service for over 40 of those years. Prior
to his retirement in 2011, he served
JIM WEYMAN
DEGREES: BACHELOR OF
SCIENCE IN MATHEMATICS,
MASTER OF SCIENCE IN
METEOROLOGY, MASTER OF
BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
YEARS IN THE INDUSTRY: 43
STEM TYPE: ADVISOR
for 15 years as director of the Pacific
Hurricane Center and meteorologistin-charge of the NOAA National
Weather Service Office in Honolulu.
Jim knows that extreme weather
events tremendously impact the U.S.
economy, citing 10 weather events
in 2015 that produced $1 billion plus
losses. “But one of the most valuable
lessons I learned was weather impacts
and losses aren’t some impersonal
number. These were real people in real
places which were tragically affected
by a weather event. This has always
remained with me,” he said.
Although most of us have knowledge
only of the local television weather
forecast, meteorologists, according to
Jim, “must be able to rapidly process
and analyze vast amounts of data
from surface observations, upper air
observations, radars, computer models
and satellites to develop a forecast and
then deliver it to the people who need
it. A matter of minutes in a tornado
situation can mean life or death.”
STEM skills required vary
according to the specific job being
performed, but generally Jim reports
a meteorologist needs knowledge
and skills in mathematics, physics and
thermodynamics, statistics, information
technology and environmental science.
Effective communication skills are also
a must, as information must be provided
quickly, efficiently and effectively to
enable people to understand what is
happening and then take appropriate
actions, Jim stressed. Meteorologists
are on duty 24 hours per day, seven
days per week.
A Bachelor of Science degree in
meteorology or atmospheric sciences is
the minimum requirement to become a
meteorologist. Additional education is
required in specific areas of interest and
often a master’s degree in meteorology
or a related field must be obtained,
according to Jim. For most college
teaching and research positions, a
doctorate in meteorology or a related
field is required. There are many career
paths to choose in this field, with salaries
ranging from $20,000 to $130,000.
Jim’s interest in meteorology began
while he was a student at Grove City
College in Pennsylvania. Although
he graduated with a Bachelor of
Science degree in mathematics, he
took additional college courses in
basic meteorology, thermodynamics,
climatology, meteorological analysis
and physical meteorology. He earned a
Master of Science degree in meteorology
from Texas A&M University and a
Master of Business Administration from
Boston University.
His education gave him the basis
on which to build a career with great
experiences, Jim explained. As test
director for NEXRAD Doppler Radars,
which are now used worldwide, he
supervised an integrated team of
National Weather Service, Department
of Defense and Federal Aviation
Administration personnel to test two
radars to determine the most effective
system. The radar selected was then
tested again to ensure it could meet the
requirements specified. “It is estimated
that thousands of lives have been saved
with the implementation of these radars,”
Jim said. “The radar not only observes
the intensity of the precipitation but
also the wind direction, wind speed and
rainfall rates and differences in these in
a storm. This significant improvement in
radar information has allowed weather
forecasters to more accurately forecast
tornadoes, hail, strong winds and
hurricanes and provide this information
to the public.”
Jim’s experiences were not limited
to only extreme weather planning
in the U.S. Within the UN World
Meteorological Organization’s
Southwest Pacific Association, which
is composed of 23 countries, he served
as chair of the Working Group on
Climate Related Matters, as well as
the U.S. representative on the Tropical
Cyclone Committee. As chairman of the
United Nations Typhoon Committee,
composed of the U.S. and 13 Southeast
Asia countries, he helped to develop
and implement a strategic plan to
coordinate research, operations,
training and facilities among countries
to better forecast and warn people of
impending typhoons.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center
in Honolulu provides wind, rain, ocean
and surf forecasts for the central Pacific.
The other hurricane center is the
National Hurricane Center in Miami,
Fla., which forecasts for the Atlantic and
the eastern part of the Pacific. The big
difference in the two areas is that Hawaii
is a series of islands and is 2,500 miles
from California. “Unlike the continental
United States,” Jim explains, “after a
hurricane (in the central Pacific), trucks
with support equipment cannot rapidly
drive to the affected area.”
Hurricane season is fast approaching
and soon the first tropical storm of the
2016 season will be forecast. Alex, as
the hurricane will be known, is named
from an alphabetical list of names
developed by the World Meteorological
Organization that is repeated every six
years. Names of very severe storms such
as Katrina, Irene, and Sandy, however,
are permanently removed from the
list and not used as reminders to the
survivors of those hurricanes.
No meteorologist can stop a
hurricane, and these destructive,
spiraling storms will continue to come
across the ocean and unleash their storm
surge, high winds and rain wherever
they make landfall. But heeding the
early warnings of the National Weather
Service will save lives. Their vision, Jim
reports, remains: “Provide weather,
water and climate data, forecasts, and
warnings for the protection of life
and property and enhancement of the
national economy.”
STEMJOBS.COM // LATE SPRING 2016 19
5-E CLASSROOM STEM ACTIVITY:
PREDICTING WHERE HURRICANES WILL HIT
Here are some ideas for how high school teachers could use this story as a launching
point for integrated STEM learning. Our activities follow the 5-E Learning Cycle Model.
Part 1: Engage
1
Ask students: What are some of the major hurricanes that have hit in your lifetime? Do you remember
Hurricane Sandy? Hurricane Katrina? How are science, technology, engineering, and mathematics
involved in the forecasting of hurricanes? Why is accurate forecasting of hurricanes so important?
2
Read the STEM Jobs Article “Through the Eye of the Storm.”
3
Ask students: What conditions are needed for a hurricane to form?
What parts of our country get hit with hurricanes, and what parts do not?
4
Show the video on hurricanes that can be found at edu.STEMjobs.com/teacher-resources.
5
Ask students: Which states do you think get the greatest number of hurricanes? Which states see the fewest
hurricanes? What factors do you think matter when predicting how many hurricanes an individual state will
be hit with each year? What do states that are predicted to get a lot of hurricanes have to do to prepare?
Part 2: Explore
Place students in groups of 3 and give each group the following prompt:
1
1
Your group is working for the National Weather Service and is in charge of forecasting hurricanes. You are responsible
for estimating how many hurricanes will hit each state in the U.S. each year. You have some hypotheses for what factors
influence how many hurricanes hit each state, but the main factor you want to investigate today is miles of coastline.
2
Specifically, you want to explore the relationship between the number of miles of coastline a state has, and the number
of hurricanes that hit that state. Compile a spreadsheet that has these figures for each state using the resources that
can be found at edu.STEMjobs.com/teacher-resources.
3
Your group will have to decide upon the optimal method of calculating miles of coastline of a given state. There are two
possible methods – one that counts, for example, offshore islands, and one that does not.
4
Once your group has compiled the data, plot the relationship between coastline mileage and number of hurricanes
and calculate a line of best fit. Also compute the correlation between these two measures. Come up with a conclusion
based on this data about how important the variable “miles of coastline” is in predicting number of hurricanes that hit a
state. What trends do you see and how strong are they? Are there any notable outliers (i.e., states that do not follow the
trend)? Which method of calculating the coastline seems to allow for the best predictions? Why do you think this is?
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Hurricane Tracking – Predicting Where Hurricanes Will Hit
Part 3: Explain
Have each group present to the class how miles of coastline can be used to predict hurricanes per year.
Spreadsheets, charts, and graphs should be shown. Ask groups some of the following questions:
a. Which method of calculating the miles of coastline did you use? Why?
b. Does the relationship look like it’s positive/increasing or negative/decreasing? Linear, quadratic, or exponential?
c. What does the slope mean in the equation for your line of best fit? What does the intercept mean?
d. Did your line of best fit include a non-zero y-intercept, or did you decide to set the y-intercept to equal 0?
Why might you want a non-zero y-intercept (may allow more accurate prediction)? Why might a non-zero
y-intercept be misleading (states with no coast still predicted to get some hurricanes)?
e. Do you think the area of the state in square miles would be a better or worse predictor?
f. What other factors would you want to add to your model to better
predict how many hurricanes would hit a particular state?
Answer Key:
Coastline - Method 1
(miles)
Coastline - Method 2
(miles)
Number of
Hurricanes
(1851-2014)
Alabama
53
607
23
Connecticut
96
618
10
State
Delaware
28
381
2
Florida
1,350
8,436
114
Georgia
100
2,344
20
Louisiana
397
7,721
54
Maine
228
3,478
6
Maryland
31
3,190
2
Massachusetts
192
1,519
10
Mississippi
44
359
16
New Hampshire
13
131
2
New Jersey
130
1,792
2
New York
127
2,625
12
North Carolina
301
3,375
50
Rhode Island
40
384
9
South Carolina
187
2,876
31
Texas
367
3,359
63
Virginia
112
3,315
12
Correlation with Method 1: 0.91
Correlation with Method 2: 0.78
Line of Best Fit with Method 1:
2
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Hurricane Tracking – Predicting Where Hurricanes Will Hit
Part 4: Elaborate
Give each group the following prompt:
While the amount of coastal area in a given state is an important factor in how many hurricanes will strike, it is not the only
factor that matters. For your next task, create an informative poster that describe how a hurricane forms, and in this description
include characteristics of the water or air like temperature, pressure, humidity, precipitation, and wind. You may use online sources
(recommended resources can be found at edu.STEMjobs.com/teacher-resources), but your final explanation should be in your own
words. You can use visuals to better explain how a hurricane forms. Finally, add to your poster an explanation of how climate change
may affect hurricane season in future years (recommended resources can be found at edu.STEMjobs.com/teacher-resources).
Part 5: Evaluate
Have students respond individually in their science journals to the following prompt:
California has 840 miles of coastline when calculated according to the “General Coastline” method, and 3,427 miles of coastline
when calculated according to the “Shoreline Mileage” method. Using the model your group developed during the “Explore” phase
only, first estimate/calculate how many hurricanes California should be hit with per year. Then explain why the model does not
actually hold for California, and why this estimate is inaccurate – i.e., why do hurricanes not typically hit California?
Standards Addressed:
Next Generation Science Standards
HS-ESS3-5. Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence-based
forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth systems.
Common Core Math Standards
CCSS.Math.Content.HSS.ID.B.6 Represent data on two quantitative variables on a scatter plot, and describe how the variables are related.
CCSS.Math.Content.HSS.ID.B.6.a. Fit a function to the data; use functions fitted to data to solve problems in the context of the data.
Use given functions or choose a function suggested by the context. Emphasize linear, quadratic, and exponential models.
CCSS.Math.Content.HSS.ID.B.6.c. Fit a linear function for a scatter plot that suggests a linear association.
CCSS.Math.Content.HSS.ID.C.7. Interpret the slope (rate of change) and the intercept (constant term) of a linear model in the context of the data.
CCSS.Math.Content.HSS.ID.C.8. Compute (using technology) and interpret the correlation coefficient of a linear fit.
Cross-Curricular Connections - National Geography Standards
Environmental Hazards: Explain how environmental hazards affect human systems and why people may have different ways of reacting to them.
Texas Essential Knowledge and Skills - Science
AS.4.A identify key features and characteristics of atmospheric, geological, hydrological, and biological systems as they relate to aquatic environments
AS.6.B examine the interrelationships between aquatic systems and climate and weather, including El Niño and La Niña, currents, and hurricanes
ESS.11.E evaluate the impact of changes in Earth’s subsystems on humans such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, flooding,
and storm surges and the impact of humans on Earth’s subsystems such as population growth, fossil fuel burning, and use of fresh water
ESS.15.E analyze recent global ocean temperature data to predict the consequences of changing ocean
temperature on evaporation, sea level, algal growth, coral bleaching, hurricane intensity, and biodiversity
ES.8.A analyze and describe the effects on areas impacted by natural events such as tectonic movement,
volcanic events, fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, flooding, tsunamis, and population growth
Texas Essential Knowledge and Skills - Math
AI.4.A calculate, using technology, the correlation coefficient between two quantitative
variables and interpret this quantity as a measure of the strength of the linear association
AI.12.E solve mathematic and scientific formulas, and other literal equations, for a specified variable
AII.8.A analyze data to select the appropriate model from among linear, quadratic, and exponential models
AII.8.C predict and make decisions and critical judgments from a given set of data using linear, quadratic, and exponential models
3
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Hurricane Tracking – Predicting Where Hurricanes Will Hit