NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
TOWARDS A COST EFFECTIVE GREEN
ENERGY PRODUCTION
E. Dias Lopes
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON
ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
“Global Collaboration in Environmental and
Alternative Energy Strategies”
10-13 November 2009
Munich, Germany
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Why a Green Energy Production ?
• Energy Demand and Available Natural
Resources
• Climate Change and Global Warming
• Protect the Environment and Mankind
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Energy Demand
Conventional Power Plants
Fossil Fired
Combibned Cycle
Other Energy Sources
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Energy Demand
Other Energy Sources
Renewable
Eolic
Solar
Solar Photovoltaic
Hydrogen/ FuelCells
Nuclear
Geothermal
Waves
Tides
Ocean Streams
Biomass and Biodiesel
Hidric
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Energy Demand
2000 - 3,618 Billion kW
2020 - 4,804 Billion kW
7%
7%
1%3%
3%2%
16%
49%
31%
52%
20%
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
9%
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Energy Demand
MBDOE
350
MBDOE
MBDOE
60
Growth Rate
2000-2020, %
300
50
forecast
Growth Rate
2000-2020, %
1.2
Others
150
1.7
forcast
0,9
30
Biomass,
MSW
1.3
0,6
Coal
wind 14.0
20
Gas
0,3
10
50
Fuel
0
1990
Growth Rate
2000-2020, %
40
2.9
100
1,2
Wind and Solar
forecast
250
200
Wind and Solar
Non-fossil Energy
Total Energy
2000
Nuclear
1.8
2010
2020
0
1990
Hydro
2000
2010
0.2
2.4
2020
Solar 10.4
0,0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Available Natural Resources (50-100Years)
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Fleet retirements in EU
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Power Production
●
Huge amounts of capital investment to change actual
scenarios to renewable sources of energy
●
Energy Storage are still Economically Unrealistic
- Water Dams, Pressure (available and used)
- Others
●
Needs of Practical and Economical Routes for CCS
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
What future for other Energy Sources?
Renewable
Eolic/Wind Power
Solar
Solar Photovoltaic
Hydrogen/ FuelCells
Waves
Tides
Ocean Streams
Biomass and Biodiesel
Hydro
Geothermal
Nuclear
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Needs for Renewable Energies
• Eolic / Wind onshore and offshore
Investment in powerful systems to optimize
costs of MWh (min. 3-4 MW)
• Solar and Solar Photovoltaic
Investment in powerful systems
Assessment of best available locations
Hybrid systems (e.g. Solar and Steam)
• Hydrogen/Fuel cells
Decrease costs for hydrogen production for
massive applications
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Needs for Renewable Energies
• Biomass/Biodiesel
3rd generation of biorefineries
• Hydro
Refurbishment of old water dams
Investment in available places
• Geothermal
Needs for investment in higher pressure and
temperature Plants
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Climate Change and Global Warming
PRODUCTION OF 1 MWY ENERGY
•2500 TONS COAL
5000 TONS CO2, SO2, SP, OTH
•1500 TONS FUEL
4800 TONS CO2,SO2, SP,OTH
•700
2400 TONS CO2
TONS NG
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Protect Environment and Mankind
●
●
●
CO2 emissions around 21,3 Gtons/y
50%Absorbed by Natural Process
Quality of Life
Air Pollution by FF – part. lower 10 micron*
- Premature dead people/y 310000
- Life Expectance decrease 9 months
- Health 80000M€/Y
*EU data 2005
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Climate Change and Global Warming
GHG
% [GHE]
CAUSES
CO2
64
FOSSIL FUEL (FF)
50 - 200
CFC
10
PLASTICS
SOLVENTS
SPRAYS
OLD EQUIPMENT
50 - 1700
CH4
19
CATLE
ORGANIC LANDFIL
15
N2O
6
WOOD COMBUSTION, FF
---
YEARS TO BE
ABSORVED
BY
BIOSYSTEM
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Why Cost Effective?
Support Sustainable Development
●
●
●
Carbon Effect on Global Warming accepted
by World Countries
Rio, Kyoto, Copenhagen Protocols accepted
by majority of World Countries
Costs of Remediation due to Climate Change
and Global Warming are unpredictable
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Measures to reduce CO2
(Short, Medium & Long Term)
-House-heating/Lighting in Energy Efficiency Buildings(ST)
-Transports (until 2025 World will increase from 0,7 to
1,75 billions
- Cars mainly in Developing Countries(1/4 inhabit.)
- Low Consumption Cars (ST)
- Hybrid Electric & Fuel Cell Cars (ST-MT- until 2025)
- Electric Cars (LT)
-Power Production (source for most of other systems)
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Fossil Fuel Power Production Systems
●
Coal-Fired Power Plants (incl. Supercritical)
●
Combined Cycle CP (NG and Others)
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Threats
Most of Energy Production Systems already
in Global Activities are based on Cheap Fuel
-
House-heating and Lighting Systems
Transports
Power Production
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Short Term
•
•
•
•
Increase the Availability of Existing PS
Life Time Extension (RLA, RBI, RBIM)
Supercritical Power Stations
Conventional Combined Cycle PS
*With CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage)
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Medium Term
•Future Conventional Power Stations
Hypercritical PS (D 700, D 750)*
•Combine Cycle (Temp. turbine hig. 1200ºC)
*With CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage Policies)
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Long Term
•Gasification of coal in old mines
•Extensive Use of Hydrogen as Fuel
•ITER
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Why not Nuclear Power Plants ?
Conventional (III)
● New Generation (III+ and IV)
● New Generation
-F1-Fusion
-H1-Hybrid
●
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
F1 FUSION GENERATION-ITER
France
2015
4500 M€
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
ITER TIMESCHEDULE
•ITER Location (2005)-FRANCE
•ITER Construction (2005-2015)
•ITER Operation (2015-2025)
•Construction of Materials Irradiation
Plant of IFMIF (2008-2012)
•DEMO Ignition & technology (2020)
•First Commercial Reactor 2040-50
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Emissões de CO2 e níveis de redução dos diferentes tipos de centrais
CO2 Emissions
and level of reduction in different types of PS
ENUPOR
ENERGIA NUCLEAR DE PORTUGAL, S.A
.
18 de Março de 2006
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Conclusions
• All the systems (Conventional, Renewable, Nuclear)
will be needed in the future (ST,MT &LT)
• Carbon Emissions must be strongly reduced (e.g.
CCS)
• Increase efficiency on Power Production (Lower
costs/KWh produced)
• Reduce the needs per inhabitant (mainly in
developed countries and increase aid to the others to
prevent excess of Carbon Emissions)
• Energy demand produced by clean and or safe
technologies (clean coal, extensive investments in
competitive renewable energies, Nuclear Fusion and
or Hybrid)
Munich, 10-13th November 2009
NASA/C3P – 2009 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON ENVIRONMENT AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Thank You
E. Dias Lopes
[email protected]
Munich, 10-13th November 2009