Heavy Rainfall Episodes over Peninsular Malaysia during
November–December 2008 of the Northeast Monsoon
Saw Bun Liong, Lim Ze Hui, Ambun Dindang and Ahmad Zaki
National Weather Forecast Center,
Malaysian Meteorological Department
ABSTRACT
This study is aimed to examine the relationship between cold surge and heavy rainfall
episodes over east coast states in Peninsular Malaysia during the NovemberDecember 2008 of the Northeast Monsoon. The cold surge event is divided into three
categories-strong, moderate and mild, based on Mean Sea Level Pressure Difference
(PD) between Wuhan in central China and Kota Bharu, the north-eastern Peninsular
Malaysia. Based on Mean Sea Level Pressure, 850 hPa winds, 500 hPa Geopotential
Height NCEP reanalysis and ECMWF 200 hPa winds charts, a sequence of surface
conditions, synoptic environments and tropical mid-latitude interactions prior, during
and after cold surge burst is discussed. The finding of this study is important as an
indicator for the arrival of monsoon surge that caused heavy rainfall episodes over
east coast states of Peninsular Malaysia
1.
Introduction
The winter monsoon is one of the most energetic heat engines in driving the
earth’s atmosphere. Ramage (1971) noted an increase in the strength of the local
Hadley circulation when heavy rain spells occurred in Peninsular Malaysia and
Sarawak during the cold surge periods in the South China Sea. Since a cold surge
is more often than not related to flooding especially over the east coast states in
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Peninsular Malaysia and Sarawak, the need to improve forecasting cold surges
has become more and more challenging. However, without understanding of
these events, this task cannot be accomplished. The aim of this study is to obtain
a better understanding of the causes of heavy rain during the winter monsoon
months. It is hoped that it can be used as a guide in identifying main synoptic
features for forecasting heavy rain.
2.
Winter Monsoon Features
During the Northern Hemisphere winter, intense high pressure develops over
Siberia and northern China. Triggered by the mid-tropospheric trough, the air
flows out of Siberia anticyclone as north-westerly and becomes north-easterly on
reaching the coast of China across the South China Sea towards the equatorial
Southeast Asia. The Siberia High is subjected to quasi-cyclical variation in its
intensity, which during its peak, results in the bursts of cold air known as a cold
surges (Lim and Azizan, 2004). The key driving force for the winter monsoon is the
available potential energy generated by the differential heating between land and
sea. The main heating source exists near the equatorial western Pacific. The latent
heat release associated with intense convective precipitation in the equatorial
Pacific induces the local Hadley circulation in the meridional direction (Jhun and
Lee, 2004).
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a.
Surface Conditions
The arrival of a cold surge is generally characterized by a steep rise of surface
pressure, a sharp drop of surface temperature and a strengthening of northeasterly surface winds (Chang, 2004). However, for the purpose of our study we
examine only the sharp drop of pressure difference between Wuhan in central
China and Hong Kong in southern China as an indicator of the onset of a cold
surge. These bursts of surface pressure over central China initiated the winter
monsoon surge, resulting in strong north-easterly wind over the South China Sea.
b.
Synoptic Environment
The onset of a cold surge follows the establishment of north-westerly flow west
of the mid-tropospheric trough over Lake Baikal. Short wave trough ahead of this
ridge deepens as it propagates across the eastern seaboard of northeast Asia. This
upper level ridge-trough structure induces the southward surface cold air
outbreak from the eastern Siberia high. The cold surge flow forms an anticyclonecyclone couplet with a high pressure center over continental East Asia and a low
pressure center over Japan (Lau and Lau, 1984).
c.
Tropical-Midlatitude Interaction
The local Hadley circulation of the Southeast Asian longitudes is intensified by
tropical convection following cold surges. The tropical-midlatitude interaction
therefore is established by the local Hadley circulation through the Coriolis
acceleration associated with the upper southerly branch, which speeds up the
East Asian jet (Chang and Lau, 1980). The highest 200 hPa wind speeds in the
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mean are found during the winter in the Northern Hemisphere off the east coast
of Asia near 30˚N and mean wind speeds exceeding 250kmh-1 are found southeast
of Japan (Bluestein, 1993).
3.
Data Sets
The data sets used in this study are taken from the following sources;
a.
Mean Sea Level Pressure and rainfall data
The daily Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) observations at Wuhan, China, Hong
Kong and Kota Bharu for the months of November and December 2009 were used
to plot the pressure difference between Wuhan - Hong Kong, Wuhan - Kota Bharu
and Hong Kong – Kota Bharu. Daily rainfall amount at Kota Bharu, Kuala Krai,
Gong Kedak, Kuala Terengganu, Kuantan and Mersing meteorological stations in
the months of November and December 2009 , located over the east coast states
of Peninsular Malaysia were used to determine the occurrences of the heavy
rainfall episode.
b.
Reanalysis data
The MSLP, and 500 hPa Geopotential Height NCEP charts were reanalysed from
National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data. The 850 hPa winds
charts were from Malaysia Meteorological Department MMD-WRF 4 km NWP
products and 200 hPa wind charts from European Centre for Medium Range
Weather Forecast (ECMWF).
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Radar data
c.
The radar images of Peninsular Malaysia, in the months of November and
December
were
from conventional
radar
network
of
the
Malaysian
Meteorological Department (MMD).
4.
Methodology
a.
Determination of the Onset of a Cold Surge
In our study, the date of the onset of a cold surge is determined on the day when
there is a sharp drop of pressure difference between Wuhan in central China and
Hong Kong in southern China. It is taken as the onset of a cold surge.
During the 2008 winter monsoon, a total of 7 cold surge episodes had occurred, 3
in November 2008 and 4 in December 2008. The days of the onset of the cold
surges are listed below. The date of each particular cold surge can be obtained
from the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) difference charts in Figure 1.1 as
indicated by the peak green solid line.
In November 2008, there are 3 episodes of monsoon surge with the following
onset dates:i.
First Episode on 9 November 2008 (Moderate Surge)
ii.
Second Episode on 18 November 2008 (Moderate Surge)
iii.
Third Episode on 25 & 27 November 2008 (Double Peaks)
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While in December 2008, there are 4 episodes of the following monsoon surges:i.
First Episode on 5 December 2008 (Moderate Surge)
ii.
Second Episode on 14 December 2008 (Mild Surge)
iii.
Third Episode on 22 December 2008 (Strong Surge)
iv.
Fourth Episode on 29 December 2008 (Moderate Surge)
b.
Determination of the Surge Category
The strength of the surge is classified into 3 categories, namely Strong, Moderate
and Mild. Mean Sea Level Pressure Difference (PD) between Wuhan in central
China and Kota Bharu in the northeast Peninsular Malaysia was used to categorise
the strength of the surge. The surge is classified as follow
Strong Surge
Moderate Surge
Mild Surge
5.
> 30 hPa
20 hPa < PD ≤ 30 hPa
≤ 20 hPa
Episode I - Moderate Surge on 9 November 2008
The first surge for winter monsoon 2008/2009 occurred on 9 November 2008 as
indicated by the peak of pressure difference between Wuhan in central China and
Hong Kong at the southern coast of China as shown in Figure 1(a).
The Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) started building-up over central Asian
continent with central pressure of not less than 1035 hPa before the surge on the
9 November 2008 on 12Z chart as shown in Figure 2.1. Subsequently, the MSLP of
1020 hPa moved southward to south of Hong Kong as appeared on 12Z chart on
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the 10 November 2008. The 850 hPa Wind charts in Figure 2.2 shows the northeasterly winds over the coast of Vietnam strengthened on 10 November 2008
before penetrating to the coast of north-eastern states of Peninsular Malaysia on
the following day. A monsoon trough was observed over north of Peninsular
Malaysia, joining a vortex over east Luzon, Philippines. As the north-easterly
winds strengthened on the 10 November, the monsoon trough moved further
southwards and situated over central Peninsular Malaysia and along the coast of
Borneo on the 12 November 2008.
The 500 hPa Geopotential Height charts in Figure 2.3 shows that the trough was
visible from 7 to 9 November 2008 indicating the supporting mechanism for the
burst of a surface high pressure over Siberia. This enhanced the surface
divergence as it moved eastwards. The 200 hPa Wind analysis in Figure 2.4 shows
that the East Asian jet strengthened and tightened the meridional trough as it
moved eastwards across the surface high would further enhance low level
divergence. The westerly subtropical jet over south of Japan was enhanced as the
return flow of the Hadley cell intensified. Radar images in Figure 2.5 indicate very
little rain and it is largely confine to the northeastern states of Peninsular
Malaysia around 18 to 36 hours after the Siberian high burst.
6.
Episode II - Moderate Surge on 18 November 2008
The second surge occurred on 18 November 2008, i.e. 9 days after the first surge.
Figure 1(a) showed that the pressure difference between Wuhan and Hong Kong
was at its peak on that day.
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The MSLP charts in Figure 3.1 shows the intensification of subtropical high over
the East Asian with central pressure of not less than 1040 hPa on the 18
November 2008 and subsequently tapered off 12 hours later. Following the cold
air burst, the 1020 hPa pressure center moved far south towards north of
Vietnam on 19 November 2008, indicating the cold surge penetration towards the
South China Sea. The 850 hPa Wind charts in Figure 3.2 shows the north-easterly
winds over the South China Sea had strengthened from the 19 November 2008,
coupled with the easterlies from the west Pacific Ocean. The easterlies
penetrated far west to the Bay of Bengal. A monsoon trough situated near the
equator, south of Peninsular Malaysia. The trough did not show much movement
despite the north-easterly winds strengthened on the 19 and 20 November 2008.
There was no cyclonic vortex during this period
The 500 hPa Geopotential Height charts in Figure 3.3 shows that the trough
moved close to Japan and further southward. A cut-off was found over eastern
seaboard. The pressure gradient around the Aleutian low has tightened since 17
November 2008, enhancing the north-westerly flows to the west of the low. The
200 hPa Wind analysis in Figure 3.4 shows that the East Asian subtropical jet has
strengthened and extended to Japan during this period indicating the active
phase of upper branch of Hadley circulation. Radar images in Figure 3.5 indicate
heavy rainfall largely confined to the east coast states of Peninsular Malaysia.
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7.
Episode III – Double Surges on 25 and 27 November 2008
The third episode was the double surges that occurred on the 25 and 27
November 2008. Figure 1.1 shows that the first episode was categorized as mild
with pressure difference less than 20 hPa, and the second was moderate with
pressure difference greater than 20 hPa but less than 31 hPa.
The MSLP charts in Figure 4.1 show the intensification of the East Asian high with
central pressure above 1040 hPa before reaching maximum on the 24 November
2008 and the drop of MSLP were observed on the following day. Subsequently,
the 1020 hPa isobar moved southwards and located south of Hong Kong before
retreating on the 26 November 2008. A day after the first surge, the central
pressure over Siberia was observed to increase showing that re-building of
another round of cold air pool. However, it did not last long. Another burst was
observed to take place on the 27 November 2008. The 850 hPa Wind charts in
Figure 4.2 show that the strengthening of north-easterly winds over the South
China Sea coupled with west Pacific easterlies occurred on 26 November 2008
and the strongest 850 hPa wind was on the 27 November 2008 before subsiding a
couple of days later. At the same time, the easterlies form the Pacific Ocean
weakened. A cyclonic vortex was observed over the South China Sea on the 27
November 2008 and moved across northern Peninsular Malaysia towards
Andaman Sea. On the 25 November, a monsoon trough situated across central
Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo and the easterlies form the west Pacific Ocean
dominated the wind flows over the South China Sea. On the 27 November, as the
easterly winds from the Pacific weakened and replacing by strong north-easterly
winds from Southern China, the monsoon trough was observed moving
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northwards, along the coastline of Sabah and Sarawak during this time. A vortex
was also formed during this time and situated over South China Sea between
Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo.
The 500 hPa trough was visible on the 24 November 2008 in Figure 4.3 become
more prominent the following day. The tightening of the trough as it moved
eastwards enhanced the low level subsidence. The trough at 200 hPa deepened
on the 25 and 26 November 2008 as shown in Figure 4.4 as it moved eastwards
and strengthening of 200 hPa westerly jet over Japan was observed during this
period. Radar images in Figure 4.5 indicate that the heavy rainfall affecting the
central and south Terengganu, east Pahang and Johore.
8.
Episode IV –Moderate Surge on 5 December 2008
The month of December 2008 recorded 4 surge episodes with its first surge
occurred on the 5 December 2008. This moderate surge occurrence as shown in
Figure 1.1 (b) with pressure difference between Wuhan and Hong Kong was at its
peak on that day.
The central pressure of the high over central China was noted to be 1050 hPa on
the 4 December 2008 as shown in Figure 5.1 before subsiding on the 12Z charts
on 5 December 2008. Increased pressure gradient over east China strengthened
the northerly winds over the area. Notably, the 1020 hPa extended to south of
Hainan Island indicating that the cold surge had travelled further south. The 850
hPa northerly winds strengthened and extended to northern and central states of
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Peninsular Malaysia on the 7 December 2008 as shown in Figure 5.2. A vortex
situated over waters off Sarawak and embedded in the monsoon trough across
central of Peninsular Malaysia on the 5 December 2008. The vortex was observed
moving westwards and the monsoon trough extended north-eastwards along the
coastline of Borneo and remain visible until 7 December 2008.
The 500 hPa trough was clearly visible on the 3 December 2008 and located over
the coastline of China on the 12Z charts on 5 December 2008 as appeared in
Figure 5.3. The 200 hPa wind analysis in Figure 5.4 shows the East Asian jet
strengthened and extended to south of Japan during this period. The heavy
rainfall over the east coast states of Peninsular Malaysia occurred on the 5
December 2008 onwards particularly over Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang. This
heavy rainfall occurrence can be seen from the radar images depicted in Figure
5.5.
9.
Episode V –Mild Surge on 14 December 2008
The second surge episode in the month of December 2008 occurred on the 14
December 2008 when it reached its peak and dropped off the following day as
shown in Figure 1.1 (b). Some of the synoptic features observed prior, during and
after this mild surge episode are as follows;
The central pressure of the high over central China peaked at 1040 hPa on 13
December 2008 as shown in Figure 6.1. The 1020 hPa isobar had extended to
south of Hong Kong as seen on the 00Z charts on 14 and 15 December 2008
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before retracting on 12Z, 15 December 2008. The 850 hPa north-easterly winds
strengthened on 14 December 2008 (12Z) and reached the coastline of Peninsular
Malaysia on 15 December 2008 (00Z) before weakening on 16 December 2008
(12Z) as shown in Figure 6.2. A tropical storm was formed over eastern Philippines
during this period and had strengthened the impact of the cold surge as it
travelled towards the equator. The monsoon trough situated close to the equator
on the 14 December and tropical storm was observed to the east of central
Philippines. The trough remained near the equator during this time cold surge
burst.
The 500 hPa trough as shown in Figure 6.3 was not well formed prior to the cold
surge on 14 December 2008. However the north-westerly flows at 500 hPa above
the surface high pressure were clearly visible and the trough was observed along
the coastline of China on 14 December 2008. The 200 hPa wind analysis in Figure
6.4 shows the East Asian jet strengthened and extended to south of Japan during
this period. The heavy rainfall over the east coast states of Peninsular Malaysia
occurred on 14 December 2008 onwards mainly over the coastal of Pahang and
Johore as seen from radar images in the Figure 6.5.
10. Episode VI –Strong Surge on 22 December 2008
The third surge occurred 8 days after the second surge episode; it is on 22
December 2008 as shown in Figure 1.1 (b). This surge is categorized as strong
when the pressure difference between Wuhan and Hong Kong was more than 30
hPa at peak on that day and subsequently dropped off.
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The MSLP charts in Figure 7.1 shows the central pressure of the high over central
China was around 1060 hPa on 21 December 2008, and the pressure gradient
around the high tightened before the cold surge burst on the 22 December 2008
as appeared in the 00Z charts. 1020 hPa isobar line has extended to south of Hong
Kong on the 00Z chart on 22 December 2008 onwards. The 850 hPa north-easterly
winds coupled with the Pacific easterlies reached its maximum strength on 23
December 2008 over the coast of Peninsular Malaysia before subsiding on the 12Z
chart on 24 December 2008 as shown in Figure 7.2. The north-easterly winds
dominated from the broad zonal easterly winds from the Pacific Ocean and the
monsoon trough was not clearly observed during this time.
The 500 hPa trough as shown in Figure 7.3 was observed on the 20 December
2008 and tightening of the gradient prior to the cold surge on the 22 December
2008. The East Asian jet at 200 hPa strengthened and extended to south of Japan
during this period as in Figure 7.4. The south-easterly winds over Peninsular
Malaysia indicating that the upper level subtropical ridge is close to the Equator.
Radar images in Figure 7.5 indicate heavy rainfall over east coast states of
Peninsular Malaysia Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang.
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11. Episode VII –Moderate Surge on 29 December 2008
The fourth surge occurred on 29 December 2008. It was a moderate surge as
shown in Figure 1.1 (b).
The MSLP charts in Figure 8.1 below show the central pressure of the high over
central China was around 1045 hPa on 28 December 2008, as in the 00Z 29
December 2008. The 1020 hPa isobar line has extended to south of Hong Kong on
the 00Z chart on 30 December 2008 onwards. The 850 hPa north-easterly winds
coupled with the Pacific easterlies strengthen on the 30th December 2008 and
reached its maximum strength on 31 December 2008 over the coast of Peninsular
Malaysia as shown in Figure 8.2. The 500 hPa Geopotential Height charts in Figure
8.3 show the existence of 500 hPa trough over China on the 28 December 2008,
tightening its gradient and propagating eastward. A vortex was well formed the
South China Sea, to the east of Peninsular Malaysia. Converging of the cold surge
winds and the easterlies from the Pacific Ocean over the cyclonic vortex has
brought a lot of rainfall over Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang.
The East Asian jet strengthened and extended to south of Japan during this period
as in Figure 8.4. The existence of upper level south-easterly winds, which is the
return flow of Hadley circulation over Peninsular Malaysia indicating that the
subtropical ridge is close to the Equator. Radar images in Figure 8.5 indicate heavy
rainfall over the east coast states of Peninsular Malaysia.
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12. Summary
The different patterns of the winter monsoon may be controlled by different
factors such as the variation of the Siberian high and the Aleutian low, Hadley
circulation, variability in radiative cooling, Arctic oscillation and so on. The northeasterly cold surges often dominate the low level circulation patterns over the
equatorial South China Sea (Chang, 2004).
The strongest cold surges extend over the South China Sea and strengthen the
northeast winds near the surface that progress rapidly southward as the
orientation of the Tibetan Plateau acts to restrict the flow such that it is
channelled toward the equator. The equator ward spreading of cold air following
the cold surge enhances tropical convective activity and convective activities over
equatorial Pacific (Chen et al., 2002). Although cold surge winds are typically dry,
they are moistened by the over-water trajectory and had associated with
enhanced upper tropospheric outflow over Maritime Continent, which is related
to the intensification of East Asian Hadley circulation.
The Siberian high shows direct and significant influences on the Asian winter
monsoon, particularly the sea level pressure and northerly wind along the East
Asian Coast. Impacts of the Siberian high on the surface air temperature occur
primarily in the southwards of 50˚N over East Asia, the north-western Pacific and
the South China Sea (Wu and Wang, 2002).
The rapid eastward movement of an upper level trough which deepening over
northern Japan, appear to be a precursor to the outbreak of north-easterly cold
air along the South China coast. The East Asia jet centred near Japan intensifies as
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a result of the upstream acceleration which is due to increase upper level flow
associated with the enhanced local Hadley circulation (Chang and Lau, 1980)
The East Asian jet, the Siberian high, the 500 hPa trough and the convection
center near the western Pacific inherently related to each other. These planetary
scale features characterize the three dimensional winter monsoon circulation.
Strengthening of the East Asian jet, the 500 hPa trough location and its eastwards
movement, development of MSLP over China-Mongolia regions are among
features to monitoring the Siberian high until it bursts. It is estimated a cold surge
takes approximately 24 to 48 hours before it reaches Malaysia. Four and three
surges in November and December respectively were moderate surge. During the
cold surge in November, significant amount of rainfall is recorded in Kota Bharu
and Kuala Terengganu except for the 18 November where Mersing also recorded
significant amount of rainfall. On the other hand, Kuantan recorded little amount
of rain during the same period. In December, the strong surge on 24 December
2008 brought most of the rain over Kelantan and Terengganu and the moderate
surge in late December brought rain to all stations in east Peninsular Malaysia.
Acknowledgements. We would like to thank Dr Yap Kok Seng, Director General of
Malaysian Meteorological Department for the support and encouragement in this
study, Miss Wan Maisarah bt Wan Abdullah for the 850 hPa MMD-WRF analysis
wind field, Mr. Abd. Wahab Abd. Razak for the radar images and Mr. Khoo Boo
Kim for the pressure and rainfall graphics.
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(a)
November 2008
(b)
December 2008
Figure 1.1: The MSLP Charts for November-December 2008
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(a)
Daily Rainfall for November 2008
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(b)
Daily Rainfall for December 2008
Figure 1.2: The Daily Rainfall Charts for November – December 2008
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Figure 2.1: The MSLP Charts on 8 - 10 November 2008
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Figure 2.2: The 850 hPa Wind Charts on 9 - 11 November 2008
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Figure 2.3: The 500 hPa Geopotential Height Charts on 7 - 9 November 2008
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Figure 2.4: The 200 hPa Wind Analysis on 6 - 11 November 2008
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Figure 2.5: The Radar Images on 9 - 10 November 2008
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Figure 3.1: The MSLP charts on 17 - 19 November 2008
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Figure 3.2: The 850 hPa Wind charts on 18 - 20 November 2008
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Figure 3.3: The 500 hPa Geopotential Height Charts on 16 - 18 November 2008
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Figure 3.4: The 200 hPa Wind analysis on 15 - 20 November 2008
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Figure 3.5: The Radar Images on 19 - 20 November 2008
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Figure 4.1: The MSLP Charts on 24 - 29 November 2008
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Figure 4.2: The 850 hPa Wind Charts on 25 - 30 November 2008
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Figure 4.3: The 500 hPa Geopotential Height Charts on 22 - 27 November 2008
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Figure 4.4: The 200 hPa Wind Analysis on 23 - 28 November 2008
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Figure 4.5: The Radar Images on 25 - 28 November 2008
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Figure 5.1: The MSLP Charts on 4 - 6 December 2008
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Figure 5.2: The 850 hPa Wind Charts on 5 - 7 December 2008
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Figure 5.3: The 500 hPa Geopotential Height Charts on 3 - 5 December 2008
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Figure 5.4: The 200 hPa Wind Analysis on 2 - 7 December 2008
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Figure 5.5: The Radar Images on 5 - 6 December 2008
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Figure 6.1: The MSLP Charts on 13 - 15 December 2008
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Figure 6.2: The 850 hPa Wind Charts on 14 - 16 December 2008
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Figure 6.3: The 500 hPa Geopotential Height Charts on 12 - 14 December 2008
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Figure 6.4: The 200 hPa Wind Analysis on 11 - 16 December 2008
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Figure 6.5: The Radar Images on 14 and 15 December 2008
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Figure 7.1: The MSLP Charts on 21 - 23 December 2008
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Figure 7.2: The 850 hPa Wind Charts on 22 - 24 December 2008
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Figure 7.3: The 500 hPa Geopotential Height Charts on 20 - 22 December 2008
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Figure 7.4: The 200 hPa Wind Analysis on 19 - 24 December 2008
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Figure 7.5: The Radar Images on 25 December 2008
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Figure 8.1: The MSLP Charts on 28 - 30 December 2008
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Figure 8.2: The 850 hPa Wind Charts on 29 - 31 December 2008
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Figure 8.3: The 500 hPa Geopotential Height Charts on 27 - 29 December 2008
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Figure 8.4: The 200 hPa Wind Analysis on 26 - 31 December 2008
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Figure 8.5: The Radar Images on 29 and 30 December 2008
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