Carbon Capt ure and St orage: Sust ainabilit y in t he UK energy m ix
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CARBON CAPTURE AN D
STORAGE: SUSTAI N ABI LI TY
I N TH E UK EN ERGY M I X
Workshop Report , 7 t h July 2006
Edit ed by :
Professor St uart Haszeldine, UK Energy Resear ch Cent r e
Report age by
Dr St uart Gilfillan: School of GeoSciences, Univ ersit y of Edinburgh
Dr Mark Wilk inson: School of GeoSciences, Universit y of Edinburgh
Eve nt orga n ise d a n d spon sor e d by:
UK Energy Research Cent re
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W or k shop Ba ck gr ound
Clim at e change is r eal, but t he accept able lim it s of fossil fuel em issions ar e uncert ain.
The effect s on oceans m ay be t erm inal, w it h unk nown consequences for hum ans. The
UK Gover nm ent prom ises t o place t he clim at e agenda at t he cent re of all act ions.
Sw eden ant icipat es oil fr eedom by 2021, Nor way is a w or ld leader in CO2 geo- st or age,
Canada is world leader t he const r uct ion of full- size low CO2 coal power st at ions, Germ any
has 20- 100 x m or e power from div erse r enewables t han t he UK. By cont rast , UK CO2
em issions are r ising, sales of av iat ion fuel increase, and nuclear elect r icit y renewal
dom inat es news m edia ( and pot ent ially, expendit ur e) t o r educe j ust 8% of pow er sect or
CO2 , whilst r enewables and CCS languish wit h lower - t ier Gov ernm ent funding, or lack of
im m ediat e business and indust rial value.
This m eet ing follows on fr om t he UK Energy Research Cent r e annual assem bly, and
brings speakers from leading nat ional posit ions, who can pr ov ide perspect iv es on
success, failur e, and fut ur e pat hways. Will t he UK be a leader in clim at e st abilisat ion?
Or is t hat m om ent about t o pass?
The focus is on CCS ( carbon capt ure and st orage) . This is suit e of t echnologies t o
capt ure CO2 at pow er st at ions and ot her concent rat ed sources, liquefy and t ransport t he
CO2 , and inj ect int o rock pores deep below ground. The I nt ergov er nm ent al Panel on
Clim at e Change pr oduced a special r eport on CCS in 2005, w her e a wor ldw ide analysis
show ed t hat CCS could halv e t he incr ease of CO2 em issions by 2100 – especially in coalusing count r ies.
The UK has claim t o a wor ld- class opport unit y for CCS, ut ilising
reserv oirs deep beneat h t he Nort h Sea. Will t echnology , indust ry, and Gov ernm ent
enable t his opport unit y t o be t aken?
About t he Or ganise r s a nd Sponsor s
The subj ect of t his w orkshop was proposed by St uart Haszeldine of Univ ersit y of
Edinburgh, CCS t opic leader w it hin UKERC’s Fut ure Sources of Energy t hem e, w it h
proj ect colleague Jon Gibbins at I m perial College London. This workshop has been
coordinat ed and sponsored by t he UKERC Meet ing Place.
The UK Energy Resear ch Cent r e's m ission is t o be t he UK's pre- em inent cent r e of
research, and source of aut horit at ive inform at ion and leadership, on sust ainable energy
syst em s. UKERC undert akes wor ld- class r esear ch addr essing whole- sy st em s aspect s of
energy supply and use, while dev eloping and m aint aining t he m eans t o enable cohesiv e
UK r esearch in energy. A k ey support ing funct ion of UKERC is t he Meet ing Place, based in
Oxford, which aim s t o bring t oget her m em bers of t he UK energy com m unit y and
ov erseas expert s fr om different disciplines, t o lear n, ident ify pr oblem s, develop solut ions
and furt her t he energy debat e.
Cor e Or ga nising Te a m
St uart Haszeldine, Univ ersit y of Edinburgh
Jon Gibbins, I m perial College London
Jane Palm er, UKERC Meet ing Place
Rudra Kapila, UKERC Meet ing Place
www.uk erc.ac.uk
UK Energy Research Cent re
[email protected]
j .gibbins@im per ial.ac.uk
j ane.palm [email protected]
rudra.k [email protected]
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M or ning Se ssion
1 ) I nt r oduct ion: CCS a nd sust a ina bilit y
St u ar t H a sz eld in e of t h e UK En e r gy Re se a rch Ce n t r e, a n d Un ive r sit y of
Edin bu rg h , explained t hat t he m eet ing had been creat ed by him self ( from UKERC) and
Jon Gibbins ( fr om t he UK Carbon Capt ur e and St orage Consort ium ) . The form at of t he
m eet ing, would com prise short inform at ive pr esent at ions gr ouped t hem at ically t oget her ,
wit h long per iods for free- ranging discussion aft er each pr esent at ion group.
The
Chat ham House Rule w ould apply , so t hat com m ent s could be freely m ade, but w ill not
be at t r ibut able t o an indiv idual. The m eet ing funding and st yle was operat ed by t he
Meet ing Place funct ion of UKERC, it s rem it being t o bring t oget her m em bers of t he
Energy com m unit y from t he UK and ov erseas t o ident ify pr oblem s and furt her t he Energy
debat e. The aim of t he day is t o exam ine if Carbon Capt ur e and St or age ( CCS) adds t o
“ Sust ainabilit y” , defined as ’d e ve lopm e n t w h ich m e e t s t h e n e ed s of t h e pr e se n t
w it h ou t com pr om isin g t h e a bilit y of fu t u r e ge n e r at ion s t o m e et t h e ir ow n
n e e ds’, or is CCS sim ply “ a n e x cu se for Bu sin e ss a s Usu a l?”
The flow of present at ions and discussion was int ended t o m ov e fr om t he scient ifically
general on clim at e and env ir onm ent effect s, t o t he specifics of CCS exper ience and
possible fut ure developm ent s, part icular ly t hose r elevant t o t he UK. The UK, lik e ot her
indust r ialized count r ies can group it s CO2 em issions r oughly equally int o Transport , Hom e
and I ndust r y, and Elect ricit y generat ion. CCS is part icular ly appr opriat e for r educing
em issions from t he elect ricit y sect or, as t hey are localized, abundant and long- last ing.
The UK has m ade pr ogr ess t owards Greenhouse Gas reduct ions.
However, CO2
em issions had decr eased fr om 1990 but w ould now incr ease because of incr eased
bur ning of cheap coal fuel. Many ot her “ Ky ot o Annex 1” count r ies wer e even furt her
from t heir 2010 t arget s t han t he UK. Can CCS prov ide a sust ainable m eans of m id- t erm
progress?
Ther e ar e sev eral concept s of CCS, but t his m eet ing focuses only on deep hydrocarbon
fields, and deep saline aquifers. Num er ous scient ific and indust r ial pilot s for CCS ex ist
around t he wor ld, and t he Nort h Sea has em erged as a hot spot of proposed
dev elopm ent s dur ing 2005- 06. How ev er, m any of t hese proposit ions need explicit
Governm ent support , or a value for CO2 fr om m echanism s such as t he EU- ETS. CCS has
it s negat iv e point s, such as increased fuel consum pt ion, because of t he energy cost s of
capt ure. Set against t his, CCS can also be argued t o hav e posit iv e secur it y of supply
aspect s, in t hat it could enable 7 – 15% m or e oil t o be ext ract ed fr om ex ist ing Nort h Sea
fields, as well as it s m ain at t r ibut e – t he dir ect reduct ion of fossil CO2 em ission rat es.
Ther e is m uch t alk, and som e act ion, of co- firing biom ass wit h fossil fuel, so t hat CCS
enables a real carbon neut ral syst em ( or pot ent ially carbon negat iv e) . Finally , it is
st art ling t o r ecall t hat t he pr esent - day r ise of at m ospher ic CO2 has been caused by
indust r ialized bur ning of j ust 50% of t he easily available oil. Ther e is m uch, m uch, m ore
fossil hydrocarbon available t o t he world, albeit at a progr essively higher pr ice. I n t he
geologically v ery near fut ur e t o 2100, som e of t his m ay be deliberat ely bur ned, such as
Albert a t ar sands – and CCS undert ak en. Som e m ay be accident ally r eleased by unant icipat ed clim at e change – such as ocean hydrat es, or onshor e perm afr ost . The
consequences ar e poor ly k now n.
So t he quest ion m ay also be: sh ou ld t h e w orld a void CCS, bu t a t it s p er il?
2 ) Som e t hought s on clim a t e scie nce , ca r bon ca pt ur e a nd
policy
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D r D ave Fr a m e , Ox f or d Un ive rsit y Ce n t r e for t h e En vir on m en t t alk ed about
“Clim at e fore ca st in g on t h e sca le of deca de s t o ce n t u r ie s u sing n u m er ica l
m od els”. Ex ist ing clim at e m odels are unwieldy, v er y slow and large. These pr oduce
for ecast s, which ar e pr obabilist ic in nat ure, and lead t o a st abilisat ion scenar io. How ev er,
we do not k now t he unknown t erm s in t he equat ions. Thus, probabilist ic forecast s for
“ st abilisat ion” depend on t he m odelling assum pt ions and paradigm s. This wor k focuses
m or e on t he t r a n sie n t effe ct s, and warm ing ra t e s. We know t he am ount of global
warm ing in t he 20 t h Cent ury is approx 1°C, but t his is j ust a t r ansient effect . How do w e
m odel t he long t erm assum ing no furt her hum an int erference? Warm ing and cooling
rat es ar e pot ent ially m or e robust out put s from m odelling, being som et im es linear and
hence m or e predict able. Models suggest a m axim um t em perat ur e r ise of 1.5 t o 1.75 °C.
I f warm ing is linear, t hen predict ion on short t im e scales is easy, but predict ions furt her
int o t he fut ur e are m ore difficult . Quant ify ing t he uncert aint ies in t he m odels is difficult .
Howev er t his can be im port ant t o show, for exam ple, t hat a rapid spike of 2.6 °C
warm ing w it h x 2 CO2 , t hen followed by cooling, is t oo short t o m elt a Gr eenland icecap.
Crucially, t he m ax im um warm ing depends m or e on t he t ot al carbon bur ned t han t he
exact t im ing. This m ay change em phasis on global t em perat ur e t arget s or at m ospher ic
concent rat ion. These prov ide good t ools t o inform us about t he t ot al fossil carbon
allowed, and t o r egulat e t hat v ia a carbon price, for exam ple.
Sev eral scenar ios are evaluat ed, all t r ending t o ‘zero’ carbon em issions in 2300, but w it h
different calendar t im ing “ peak ing ear ly ” or “ peak ing lat e” . These produce a m odal
warm ing of 2 °C, w it h a m axim um probable warm ing of 3.8 °C. The t ot al am ount of
carbon bur ned is crit ical. The coupling of at m ospher ic CO2 forcing rem ains poor ly
underst ood, and is ver y m odel dependent – for exam ple t he cross- t alk of ocean t o
at m osphere.
Much m ore firm inform at ion is needed for t he carbon cycle, as t his
significant ly changes t he v olum e of t he m odelled carbon w edge.
Models can be used t o predict carbon em issions t arget s for accept able degr ees of clim at e
change. To be effect iv e, t he m odels m ust include t he carbon cycle and ocean- at m ospher e
int eract ion. Quant ify ing t he equilibr ium r esponse t o an elev at ed CO2 concent rat ion has
prov ed elusiv e. The m axim um war m ing r em ains t he sam e, if t he sam e am ount of carbon
is bur ned, however t he t ransient rat e of t em per at ur e change can be quit e different . This
is m uch m ore t ract able t han seek ing t o m easure ‘st abilisat ion scenar ios” of GHG
wor ldw ide. Dav e t her efor e suggest ed t hat w e refocus on Transient Clim at e Response,
which is m uch easier t o quant ify and m ay prov ide m ore r obust , and nuanced, inform at ion
t o policy m ak ers.
3 ) Effe ct s of CO 2 I ncr e a se on Oce a ns
Ca r ol Tu rle y, Plym ou t h M ar in e La bora t or y ( ct @pm l.a c.u k ) Wit h t he Wor ld’s oceans
covering ov er 70% of t he planet ’s surface, and cont r ibut ing t o half t he prim ary
product ion on t he planet , and cont aining an enorm ous div ersit y of life, it is not surprising
t hat t hey pr ov ide inv aluable resources t o hum an societ y . Clim at e change is already
hav ing an im pact in t he oceans as w ell as on land. Of part icular concern ar e t he loss of
m arginal sea ice biom es, expansion of t he low product iv it y cent ral oceanic gyr es, t he loss
of warm wat er coral r eef ecosyst em s and r egim e shift s such as t hat seen in t he Nort h
Sea in t he lat e 1980s. These im pact s are t hought t o be due t o increasing seawat er
t em perat ur e, and as t his incr eases in t he fut ure t he im pact s ar e predict ed t o get m or e
sev ere.
Oceans play a v it al r ole in t he Eart h’s life support syst em t hrough r egulat ing clim at e and
global biogeochem ical cycles t hr ough t heir capacit y t o absorb at m ospher ic carbon
diox ide. Put sim ply, clim at e change would be far worse if it wasn’t for t he oceans.
Howev er, t her e is a cost t o t he oceans. When carbon diox ide r eact s wit h wat er it
produces carbonic acid, so when m or e CO2 is t aken up by t he surface of our oceans t he
m or e surface ocean pH decreases ( pH is a m easure of acidit y ) . This is called “ ocean
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acidificat ion” and is happening at a rat e t hat has not been experienced for at least
400,000 years and probably for t he last 20 m illion years. The effect of ocean acidificat ion
on m ar ine ecosyst em s and organism s t hat inhabit t hem has only r ecent ly been
recognised and is of gr ow ing concer n t o scient ist s and policy m akers inv olved in clim at e
change, biodiversit y and t he m ar ine env ir onm ent .
The w orld’s oceans curr ent ly absorb on av erage about one m et r ic t onne of CO2 produced
by each person ev ery y ear. I t is est im at ed t hat t he surface wat ers of t he oceans hav e
t aken up about 500 Gt CO2 , about half of all t hat generat ed by hum an act iv it ies since
1800. This addit ional CO2 is alr eady reducing ocean pH and it is also affect ing t he
carbonat e chem ist r y t hrough t he r educt ion of t he carbonat e ions, aragonit e and calcit e,
which ar e used by m any m ar ine organism s t o build t heir ext ernal skelet ons and shells.
I f t he curr ent t r ends in CO2 em issions cont inue t o increase due t o hum an act iv it ies, by
t he end of t he cent ury pH of surface seawat er could decrease by about 0.5 unit s. This
change in t he chem ist ry of t he oceans is quant ifiable and pr edict able. The consequences
of acidificat ion on m ar ine organism are m uch less cert ain as result s from research ar e
j ust em erging. These st udies suggest t hat it is a real t hr eat for t he surv iv al of som e
im port ant m ar ine ecosyst em s and m any m ar ine species.
Ocean acidificat ion leads t o a decrease in carbonat e ion concent rat ion, a crucial elem ent
in t he const r uct ion of t he ext er nal skelet on or shells of m any m ar ine calcify ing
organism s. By t he m iddle of t his cent ur y, ocean acidificat ion w ill affect t he calcificat ion
process which allows or ganism s such as corals, m olluscs and calcar eous phyt oplankt on,
t o build t heir ext er nal skelet on or shells. Tr opical corals m ight be heav ily dam aged,
which w ill t hreat en t he st abilit y and longev it y of m any organism s and im pact t he hum an
populat ions t hat depend on t hem . Cold- wat er corals ar e also likely t o be st rongly affect ed
befor e t hey hav e even been fully explored.
Predict ions based on num er ical m odels suggest t hat in 50 years, surface wat ers in t he
Sout her n Ocean w ill be corr osiv e t o aragonit e, an elem ent t hat const it ut es t he shell of
t he pt eropods. These sm all plankt onic snails m ay t herefore not be able t o surv ive in polar
wat ers. As t hey occur in high num bers and are an im port ant food source for m any
species, from zooplankt on t o w hales and com m ercial fishes such as salm on, t heir
disappearance m ay have a subst ant ial k nock- on effect on t he whole Sout her n Ocean
ecosyst em .
Sur face ocean acidificat ion is happening now, and will cont inue as hum ans em it m or e
CO2 int o t he at m osphere. I t is happening at t he sam e t im e as t he wor ld is warm ing.
Organism s and ecosyst em s are going t o have t o deal w it h a num ber of m aj or rapid global
changes at once – unless we urgent ly int roduce effect ive ways t o reduce CO2 em issions.
These changes are happening on hum an t im e scales so t hat our childr en and
grandchildren will experience t hem . Av oiding ev en m ore serious ocean acidificat ion is a
powerful addit ional argum ent t o t hat of fut ur e danger ous clim at e change for t he urgent
reduct ion of global CO2 em issions.
For m or e inform at ion see t he Royal Societ y
( ht t p: / / www .r oyalsoc.ac.uk / docum ent .asp?id= 3249) .
Report
on
Ocean
Acidificat ion
4 ) Clim a t e change, EU policy a nd CO 2 st or age se cur it y
D r Ja son And er son , I n st it u t e for Eu rope an En viron m e n t al Policy discussed som e
of t he econom ic and polit ical aspect s of global clim at e change and em issions reduct ions.
Jason st ressed t he need for urgent act ion on global em issions. The sooner em issions
st art t o fall, t hen t he less drast ic t he rat e of reduct ion has t o be. A peak in em issions by
2020 would be accept able, ot herw ise t he subsequent rat e of em issions reduct ions will
hav e t o be v ery rapid indeed. A lim it t o global war m ing of 2 °C abov e pre- indust rial
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levels has been endorsed by t he European Council, t he European Parliam ent and t he
Eur opean Com m ission, as well as m any st akeholders. This cur rent ly m eans an 8%
decrease of Gr eenhouse Gas ( GHG) em issions wit hin t he EU, wit h im plicat ion for 30%
decrease by 2030, and a m inim um of 50% decr ease by 2050.
A suit e of m it igat ion policies are, and can be, in operat ion w it hin t he EU. But Europe will
only m eet it s Ky ot o t arget s by buy ing carbon credit s, a pr ocess t hat t he audience ( of t his
wor kshop) clear ly t hought was cheat ing, but which is allowable under t he prot ocol. The
I EA ( 2006) est im at e t hat a cost of 20 ¼SHUWRQZRXOGEHEHDUDEOHDQGFRXOGUHGXFH
GHG. At $25 per t on CO2 t he I EA est im at e t hat GHG can be kept t o t heir present lev el
wit hin t he EU. Energy efficiency is t he cheapest m et hod. CCS is a beneficial part of t he
CO2 r educt ion port folio at t he higher cost end, t owards $35/ t on CO2 . The r educt ion in
em issions r equired depends on t he t arget of m axim um at m ospheric CO2 . By cont rast ,
van Vuur en et al ( 2006) est im at e t hat at m ospher ic st abilisat ion could cost m uch m or e,
wit h perm it s at $200/ t on carbon in 2050 for a relat iv ely high peak of 650 ppm , and a
550 ppm peak cost ing double at $400 / t on car bon, increasing again t o $600 / t on carbon
t o m eet a 450 ppm peak. To achiev e t hese, a full port folio of energy solut ions w ill be
requir ed, including ener gy efficiency.
Legally w it hin t he EU, t her e are num erous Regulat ions and Dir ect iv es t o m eet and
harm onise before CCS is rout inely achievable.
The DG Env ir onm ent is cur rent ly
com plet ing it s Eur opean Clim at e Change Policy ( ECCP) consult at ion, and w ill build CCS
int o t hat , for com m unicat ion at t he end of 2007. Jason discussed t he EU Em issions
Trading Schem e, w her e t he UK is proposing CCS be included. The European Com m ission
will delay any decision unt il aft er t he ECCP com m unicat ion. Placing CCS wit hin t he Clean
Dev elopm ent Mechanism is proposed, t o buy em issions credit s from out side t he EU. This
st ill seem s a long way from appr oval in Jason’s opinion. Ot her incent iv es and obligat ions
will pr obably em erge as t he ECCP gains shape. Public accept ance of new t echnology is
im port ant , w it h good public support for solar and w ind pow er. Supplied wit h inform at ion,
t he public seem t o favour CCS, while nuclear power has a poor public im age. CCS as an
opt ion m ay lower barr iers t o public agreem ent on m ore st ringent t ar get s. Or CCS m ay
reduce pr essure for t arget s by giv ing t he im pr ession of a fallback solut ion, for exam ple in
t he USA. CCS will probably displace ot her CO2 m it igat ion opt ions. Assessm ent of sit e
perform ance could use a risk - based approach, but will need t o be sit e- specific. I t
rem ains unclear if CCS is a bridge t o t he low carbon fut ur e, or if CCS will r em ain part of
t he fut ure – once CCS is phased in, it w ill be hard t o phase it out .
D I SCUSSI ON
The discussion had a general t hem e of ‘I s it t oo la t e t o p re ven t d isa st rou s clim a t e
ch a n ge ?’
Are w e past t he point of no r et ur n for clim at e change? Needless t o say, t her e was no
clear answer t o t his quest ion! Ther e is no k nown safe lim it for CO2 in t he at m ospher e,
except for t he pr e- indust rial level of 270 ppm . The m aj or pr oblem s are t he ‘non- linear’
effect s, e.g. clim at e warm s a lit t le, t hen t he Gr eenland ice sheet m ay m elt
cat ast rophically, or t he Gulf St r eam m ay st op. These effect s cannot be reversed on short
t im escales by reversing t he at m ospher ic changes, e.g. cooling t he Eart h w ouldn’t rebuild
t he Greenland ice sheet , cert ainly not on any hum an t im e scale. What would happen if
t here was no pr ogress wit h global em issions r educt ions, i.e. t he Business As Usual
scenar io? Ther e could be a global clim at e war m ing of 5.5 – 6 °C in next 100 y ears. This
is huge, w it h m uch hot t er sum m ers, and especially night s. Many ecosyst em s would die,
including som e hum an ones. There could be a m aj or, w or ldw ide, ext inct ion, per haps
sim ilar t o t hose t hat geologist s see in t he fossil r ecord. Jam es Lovelock has suggest ed
t hat ‘civ ilisat ion’ m ight surv iv e only in t he polar regions. Ther e is a m aj or polit ical aspect
t o all clim at e change pr edict ions t hat m akes obj ect ive assessm ent difficult .
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I n view of t he possible effect s of ocean acidificat ion, should w e hav e t arget s for ocean pH
change inst ead of hav ing em issions t arget s for at m ospher ic CO2 ? No ‘safe’ ocean pH lim it
is k nown, t hough w e could use t he annual var iat ion ( 0.1 - 0.2 pH unit s) as a guide. This
suggest s t hat t he pr edict ed pH change for 2050 ( 0.3 pH unit s) is ‘unsafe’ i.e. w ill r esult in
significant ext inct ions such as t he pr esent day coral bleaching. Howev er t here are m any
fact ors inv olv ed t hat ar e poor ly k nown, in fact t her e ar e probably ‘unknow n unknow ns’!
We hav e 10 – 15 y ears t o act , or our childr en’s children m ay nev er hav e t he chance t o
see a coral reef.
Can we t ake CO2 out of t he at m osphere by art ificially m ix ing t he oceans using huge
vert ical pum ps? No, it m ay be t echnically possible but it ’s t oo dangerous t o m ess wit h
global ocean circulat ion. Ther e m ay be ‘nat ural’ enhanced v ert ical m ixing as st orm s in
t he Sout her n Ocean int ensify as t he clim at e det er iorat es – bet t er m odelling would help.
Art ificially lock ing t he CO2 up as a solid m ineral precipit at e w it hin t he oceans is also
im pract ical – we would need t o re- m ak e t he Whit e Cliffs of Dov er.
How do we r econcile t he t im escales of polit icians ( 1 – 5 years) wit h clim at e change
t im escales ( decades, cent ur ies) ? Scient ist s and policy m ak ers need t o t alk t o t he public
about t heir childr en and grandchildr en, about hum an deat hs due t o global warm ing and
collapsing eco- syst em s t hat are happening now, not t hat m ight happen in 50 or 100
years. People won’t accept em issions reduct ions scenar ios ( e.g. t ax on av iat ion fuel)
unless t hey underst and what it m eans t o t hem as indiv iduals now . Unfort unat ely , we can
predict t he fat e of whole ecosy st em s, but we cannot predict lifest y le. We can’t predict
what life would be lik e in a 550 ppm CO2 w or ld as we can’t ant icipat e t echnological
change. Educat ion is crucial, t he UK Gov ernm ent is playing a leading r ole in global
publicit y ; academ ics and indust r y m ust help.
St ill on t he subj ect of t im escales, t he wor ld energy indust ry does t hink on a 50 y ear t im e
scale – t his is roughly t he t im e from finding an oil field t o deplet ing it . So do insurers –
would y ou insur e t he rebuilding of New Orleans? Ther e is a t r ust issue her e – can w e set
long- t erm t arget s and ser iously expect Gov ernm ent or indust ry t o st ick t o t hem ? The fuel
we bur n now w ill affect t he clim at e in t he lat t er half of t his Cent ury – t here is a long lag
in t he clim at ic syst em .
What will happen aft er 2012, when t he Ky ot o agreem ent expir es? The point was m ade
t hat Kyot o agreem ent isn’t m uch use any way , st ick ing t o it won’t significant ly lim it
clim at e change, and m any count r ies have no int ent ion of st icking t o it ; Spain and I t aly
hav en’t ev en set t arget s. There is probably ev en less chance of a global agr eem ent post Ky ot o, t hough t he Ky ot o agreem ent isn’t global even now. A lot depends on t he USA and
indust r ialising count r ies such as China and I ndia. Europe can only lead by exam ple, i.e.
act ion not w ords.
Can we engineer our way out of t his pr edicam ent , aft er all t hat ’s how w e got here?
Efficiency is slow ly im prov ing, driven by t echnological adv ances and at t em pt s t o reduce
energy cost s. The opt im ist ic view is t hat a com binat ion of bet t er engineering and cost cut t ing will ev ent ually save t he day . I s t he hydrogen econom y a solut ion? Pr obably not ,
as hydr ogen has t o be generat ed som ew here, you sim ply shift t he pollut ion from ( say )
your car t o ( say ) your fossil fuel powerplant . CCS could m ake energy, alm ost pollut ion
fr ee, for a hydr ogen econom y w hile st ill allow ing bur ning of fossil fuels.
5 ) CCS in Cana da
st or a ge
–
Ex per ie nce, sour ce s, use s a nd
M a lcolm W ilson , En er gy I N e t a n d Unive r sit y of Re g in a , discussed a variet y of t opics
in t he ar ea of CCS experience in Canada. The Energy I net organisat ion is a j oint indust ry public part nership, seek ing t o help m ax im ise Canada’s energy research and dev elopm ent
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im pact . This included t he differ ing energy uses wit hin st at es in Canada and from t his an
indicat ion of t he sources of CO2 supply , locat ion and relat iv e purit y. The present at ion also
out lined t he key ar eas of developing exper ience in capt ur e, use in Enhanced Oil Recov er y
( EOR) , Enhanced Coal Bed Met hane product ion ( ECBM) and acid gas inj ect ion.
The present at ion t hen addressed t he pilot wor k in Canada on post com bust ion capt ur e
using am ine solvent s in conv ent ional colum ns and t he progr ess t hat has been m ade in
t his ar ea. I t also not ed t he w or k on oxy - fuel com bust ion. Of part icular not e is t he
dev elopm ent of a new lignit e- fir ed 450MW power st at ion in Canada t hat will have fully
int egrat ed capt ure and will be on- st ream by 2012, producing approx im at ely 7,000 t onnes
per day of CO2 for use in EOR or for st orage. This Boundary Dam plant will have oxy - fuel
bur ners and post - com bust ion CO2 capt ure.
Canada’s pr im ary pot ent ial for EOR or st orage is in West er n Canada, wit h an est im at ed
st orage pot ent ial of som e 1000 Gt CO2 , m ost of t his being in saline aquifers of Albert a
and Saskat chewan, but wit h approx im at ely 1000 Mt CO2 pot ent ial for EOR. Tar sand
product ion in Albert a is not conv enient ly sit ed for CCS. Ont ar io m ay build pipes t o r each
t he Michigan Basin, w her eas Nova Scot ia m ay use offshore aquifers and coals. While
t here is som e w ork on ECBM, t he w ork has not progressed t o t he sam e point as EOR and
t here is st ill m uch t o learn of t he pot ent ial for coals. Sim ilar ly , t he concept of Enhanced
Gas Recov ery has been discussed, but lit t le r esearch undert ak en.
The discussion t hen m oved t o t he Canadian flagship proj ect , t he Weybur n Monit or ing and
St orage Pr oj ect sit ed in t he Canadian sect or of t he Willist on Basin. The I EA Greenhouse
Gas Pr ogram m e cit e t his as t he w or lds largest full- scale Monit or ing and Ver ificat ion
program m e. CO2 , w it h 96% pur it y and 1% H 2 S, is t ransport ed by a 320km pipe fr om
Nort h Dak ot a. This proj ect inj ect s som e 5,000+ t onnes per day of CO2 int o a m oderat ely
large oil reserv oir . The increm ent al oil from t his reserv oir now sit s at 18,000 barr els per
day. 7 Mt CO2 hav e alr eady been inj ect ed, and 26 Mt CO2 ar e planned t o be inj ect ed by
2035. The k ey t o t his being a good research pr oj ect is t he fact t hat t here is an ext rem ely
good hist or ical dat abase in place and t he r esearch pr ogram m e was able t o undert ak e a
full baseline surv ey pr ior t o any CO2 being inj ect ed. The m onit oring t echnologies in use
by 4D seism ic, geochem ist ry and t racers w er e discussed and t he successes not ed. Also
discussed was t he m odelling underway t o det erm ine t he reserv oir per form ance ov er t he
t im e per iod t o com plet e dissolut ion of t he CO2 in reserv oir fluids. Pr oj ect ing 5,000 y r int o
t he fut ure using flow m odels, shale r ock seals wer e consider ed highly effect iv e, such t hat
only 0.02% of t he CO2 is expect ed t o r ise abov e t he reserv oirs, and zero % w ill reach t he
surface. Leak y w ells are pr edict ed t o account for 0.14% of leakage upward, and since
CO2 dissolv ed is denser t han wat er som e 18% CO2 m ay dissolv e and m igrat e dow nwards.
The end result s indicat e t he clim at e change effect iv eness of t he t echnology and t he
int egrit y of t he st orage “ cont ainer” – t he Weyburn r eser voir.
Albert a also has ext ensive exper ience of acid gas inj ect ion ( CO2 + H 2 S) , wit h 2Mt CO2 in
5 years fr om over 40 sit es. ECBM is also operat ional, but rem ains unk now n for it s fut ure
role. EOR w ill pr obably t ak e m ost of t he fut ure effort , producing hundr eds Mt / yr oil, also
wit h at t ent ion t o t ar sands processing. Fut ure issues for CCS ar e regulat ions, cost
reduct ions of capt ure, public support , and full- scale dem onst rat ion proj ect s. CCS is
progressing slow ly , so will not deliv er t he CO2 reduct ions needed by Canada for 2010
Ky ot o com pliance.
6)
CCS a nd Enha nce d
N or w egia n va lue .
Oil
Recove r y :
de ve loping
Aa ge St a n g elan d, Bellon a Fou n da t ion , and a m em ber of t he EU z e r o e m ission
pow e r FP7 w or kin g gr ou p, explained t hat Bellona ar e an env ironm ent al NGO, wit h
expert ise in energy issues wit hin Norway. They believ e t hat new build powerplant s m ust
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use CCS. However, t his will only be effect iv e as part of a com prehensiv e st rat egy of CO2 em ission reduct ion m easures. The Norw egian Pet r oleum Dir ect orat e had published work
indicat ing t hat CCS was un- econom ic. The Bellona r eport on CCS was published one
m ont h before t he last elect ion, and t his approach has been adopt ed by t he new
Nor wegian Prim e Minist er .
Nor way is predict ed t o r equire increasing am ount s of energy, but t her e is no pot ent ial for
new hydr o- pow er st at ions. Gas- power ed st at ions ar e t he pr efer red opt ion, pr oducing
16Mt CO2 per y ear. This will be t ak en offshor e by pipeline for geological disposal. Cr ucial
issues are t he r equirem ent for invest m ent by t he Norw egian Gov ernm ent , and t he need
for a long t erm r egulat ory fram ew ork against w hich inv est m ent can t ak e place.
I n t he Bellona m odel, t here t he four separat e com panies inv olved in elect ricit y
generat ion. An oil com pany supplies nat ural gas. A generat ing com pany gener at es
elect r icit y . A capt ure com pany rem ov es t he CO2 from t he wast e gases fr om t he power
st at ion, and a t ransport com pany m oves t he CO2 from t he pow er st at ion t o t he sit e of
disposal by t he oil com pany. The t ransport com pany is non- pr ofit able, and has t o be
st at e owned. I n exchange, t he incr eased revenues fr om oil pr oduct ion are t axed by t he
st at e, which m ak es a net profit . Bellona suggest s t hat t he pr ice of CO2 could be t ied t o
t he pr ice of oil or gas, t his helps t o spread t he r isk am ongst all t he st ak eholders.
Bellona r ecom m ends t hat t he Norwegian gov er nm ent est ablish t wo com panies: one for
capt ure of CO2 , and one for t he dist r ibut ion and sale of CO2 t o be used for enhanced oil
recovery ( EOR) purposes. The pr ice m echanism in t he proposed econom ic m odel places
t he risk on t he part wit h t he largest proport ion of r ev enues in t he value chain, i.e. t he
gover nm ent , and t her eby m akes capt ur e of CO2 for EOR purposes a very profit able
operat ion.
The gov ernm ent can, according t o t he econom ic m odel, cont ribut e t o t he necessary
inv est m ent s in t he CO2 value chain. Ther eaft er, all pr ivat e act ors w ill profit fr om CO2 for
EOR proj ect s, ev en at oil pr ices considerably lower t han t oday . The calculat ions also show
t hat t he Norw egian St at e will pr ofit from t he CO2 value chain even at oil prices as low as
18 US$ per bar rel, when st at e t ax on t he enhanced oil pr oduct ion and t he av oided CO2
perm it cost ar e account ed for .
D I SCUSSI ON
Ther e w ere sev eral quest ions about t he fat e of t he inj ect ed CO2 in t he Wey bur n proj ect .
The st at ed leakage of CO2 at 0.14% of t he t ot al inj ect ed was clarified as being ov er 5000
years. Howev er, m ore leakage was expect ed ov er m uch short er t im e scales up wellbor es. This was t hought t o be r elat iv ely sim ple t o r em ediat e, but could not be m odelled
using t he exist ing m et hods. CO2 also escapes from t he r eser voir w hen it is pr oduced
along w it h t he oil. All of t his is r ecov er ed, dehydrat ed, and re- inj ect ed, as it is t he
cheapest CO2 available. Hence all t he CO2 t hat has been bought is underground at t he
present day. As t he com pany is paying 17 – 18 US$ per t onne ( delivered at pressur e) it
isn’t econom ic t o allow any t o escape t o t he at m ospher e.
Alt hough t he Weybur n proj ect is w orld fam ous as a m odel for CCS, it was designed
ent irely as an EOR ex er cise. There hav e been no concessions t o CCS in t he design, so t he
quant it y of carbon buried has been m inim ised. This cont rast s wit h a CCS scenario w here
t he aim is t o m ax im ise carbon bur ied, wit h oil pr oduct ion as a possible side- effect t o
offset cost s.
Can we re- use ex ist ing pipelines t o m ov e CO2 from sources t o t he st orage sit es, or do w e
hav e t o build cost ly new pipelines? What effect does H 2 S hav e, and how danger ous is it ?
We can pot ent ially use ex ist ing infrast r uct ur e but t he predict ed volum es are so high t hat
new pipelines will inev it ably be r equir ed. By 2050, 50 billion t onnes will have t o hav e
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been bur ied. The CO2 w ill be dry w hen pum ped, so is not cor r osiv e. The H 2 S m ak es t he
CO2 m uch m or e danger ous. Canadian planning law m eans t hat t he pipelines m ust not
pass closer t han 400m from a house, and 800m from a com m unit y.
The fat e of t he CO2 undergr ound w as m odelled for 10,000 y ears. What w er e t he
uncert aint ies? There w ere m any uncert aint ies! Present day m odels cannot even pr edict
accurat ely t he behav iour of t he fluids in a r eserv oir over t he life of t he r eserv oir ( 30
years) .
The Bellona financial m odel for CCS/ EOR in Nor way was also discussed. The financial
m odel has a t ransport com pany, w hich is dist inct from t he oil com pany and t he power
generat ing com pany. The t ransport com pany bot h collect s t he CO2 from t he power
st at ion, and delivers it t o t he sit e of geological st orage. This com pany loses m oney and is
Governm ent owned. Why not charge t he pow er and oil com panies t o cov er t his loss,
per haps in conj unct ion wit h a carbon t ax ? The reply was t hat t his m odel spr eads t he
inv est m ent , and r em ov es bot h r isk and st art - up cost s from t he pr ivat e indust ry. Wit hout
t his assurance t hey w ould not be pr epared t o inv est . The Gover nm ent ev ent ually
recovers it s invest m ent in t he t ransport com pany t hr ough t axat ion of t he ext ra oil
produced, t hough t he Nor wegian gov ernm ent has not y et com m it t ed it self t o t his r ole.
This m odel w ill not w or k where t her e is no st at e involv em ent in t he energy indust ry, so
not in t he USA. The m odel was developed for Norway.
Wit h t he financial m odel of separat e t ransport com pany and pow er generat ing com pany ,
t he power plant and t he CO2 - capt ure plant are separat ed. Does t his wor k physically, as
conv ent ionally t he t wo are int egrat ed? The reply was t hat while int egr at ion is norm al in
pre- com bust ion and ox y - fuel plant s, t his is not im port ant t o t he financial m odel.
When a privat e com pany bur ied CO2 , w her e does it s liabilit y end, especially if t he CO2
subsequent ly leaks? The Norw egian v iew is t hat t he St at e m ust t ake all long- t erm
liabilit y , or t he pr ivat e com panies will not be prepared t o t ak e t he r isk. Even wit h t his
prov iso, t he pr ivat e energy com panies will need incent ives and a dependable r egulat or y
fram ework t o m ak e a st able basis for invest m ent . However, in Canada, t her e ar e no long
t erm regulat ions. There ar e exist ing rules for t he abandonm ent of EOR facilit ies, w it h
liabilit y being handed over t o t he st at e. The com pany r et ains liabilit y for negligence for
et ernit y , or unt il it ceases t o ex ist , as m ost com panies do in t he long t erm – t he wor ld’s
oldest com panies ar e only 300 – 400 y ears old. Albert a has a ‘orphan w ell’ fund t hat
deals w it h leak ing w ells aft er t he dem ise of t he parent com pany.
Can t he Bellona m odel wor k wit h j ust CCS, not EOR? No. Can y ou put a financial value
on t he env ir onm ent , t o offset cost s of CCS? You can, but unless som eone is pr epared t o
pay it , t he energy com panies aren’t going t o be int erest ed.
Canada is com m it t ed t o a 6% reduct ion in em issions t hrough t he Ky ot o agreem ent , but
is predict ed t o be 20% over t arget by 2012. Will CCS close t he gap? Reduct ions are
hoped for, in equal pr oport ions, from t he public, from ext ernal purchases of carbon
credit s, and from t he final em it t ers. The new Canadian Gov er nm ent will pr obably opt for
CCS rat her t han lifest yle change, but pr obably st ill w ill not m ak e t he t arget .
Link ing CCS t o EOR m eans it is inext r icably link ed t o ext ra carbon em issions, not t o a
reduct ion. What can be done? Long t erm , t hese ext ra em issions need t o be st opped.
St orage becom es m or e pract ical as CO2 cost drops. I f CO2 has a 35 $/ t on value t hen
CCS works. Cost s m ay be r educed by t he GE H 2 product ion m et hod, t o 15 $/ t on or m id
20 $/ t on CO2 ; Kvaer ner in Nor way has an operat ing post - com bust ion m et hod already
producing 23 $/ t on CO2 .
How im port ant is im m ediat e, pract ical, exper ience in building and r unning CCS schem es?
Ver y im port ant ! China for exam ple w ill not follow adv ice from t he w est unless we can
show t hat we ar e t ak ing our ow n m edicine. We need full scale plant s, not j ust pilot s. I f
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we decide t o go ahead t oday, a CCS schem e w ill com e on- st ream in 2012, so t here is a
considerable delay. I t is also v ery ex pensiv e. I t is t he r esponsibilit y of scient ist s t o inform
polit icians.
Aft e r noon Se ssion
7 ) H ydr oge n pow er a nd car bon ca pt ur e a nd st or a ge
Le w is Gillie s of BP Alt er n a t ive En er gy t alked on “ H ydr og e n p ow e r an d car bon
ca pt u r e a n d st or ag e ” t o open t he aft er noon session. Lewis’s ov er view explained t hat
we cannot , as yet , conceiv e a wor ld w hich does not r ely on fossil fuels. Recent ly , BP
realised t hat a gr eat deal of r esearch had been undert aken on reducing em issions from
t he t ransport sect or , such as fuel cell cars. Howev er, very lit t le research had been
com plet ed on t he power generat ing sect or. This is a m aj or source of global CO2
em issions and cur r ent ly account s for 40% of UK em issions. BP m ade a conscious decision
t o t arget r educt ion of t he pow er sect or em issions hav ing not ed t hat t hr ee of t he w edges
from t he Pr incet on m odel for st abilising global CO2 levels ar e in t he power sect or. 35
Decarbonised Fuel proj ect s have been ident ified wor ldwide. BP aim s t o invest $8bn in
t he nex t 10 y ears t o becom e t he largest solar and w ind generat ing energy com pany in
wor ld.
Lew is t hen went on t o out line t he det ails of t he Pet erhead Proj ect . This will use nat ural
gas t o pr oduce hydr ogen which will t hen be used as fuel for a new purpose built power
st at ion. CO2 w ill be separat ed fr om t he nat ural gas prior t o com bust ion. Aft er pr ocessing
and com pr essing, a 250 km pipeline w ill t ransport t he CO2 t o t he Miller field in t he Nort h
Sea w her eupon it will be inj ect ed t o enhance oil pr oduct ion ( com m only k nown as
Enhanced Oil Recovery - EOR) . BP pr oposes t o inj ect up t o 1.8 Mt of CO2 per y ear and t o
recover 50- 60 m illion barr els of oil. Lewis st ressed t hat t here was not hing in t he pr oj ect
which doesn’t alr eady operat e at t his scale but t he t echnology has never befor e been
int egrat ed on a single sit e and t he challenge is t o m ak e it all work t oget her.
I n t he final port ion of t he t alk Lewis out lined why t he UK needs t o consider carbon
capt ure and st orage ( CCS) . Pr im arily t his is because t he UK gov ernm ent has a legal
com m it m ent t o t he Ky ot o t reat y and reducing CO2 em issions. The CO2 reduct ion fr om t he
475 MW out put Pet erhead pow er plant wit h CCS w ould be equivalent t o ALL of t he
onshore w ind farm s in t he UK dur ing 2005. I t is also an opport unit y for t he UK t o set an
exam ple t o China, I ndia and ot her developing nat ions t hat CCS is v iable on a large scale.
Lew is st ressed t hat at present t he infrast r uct ur e for carbon st orage is in place at t he
Miller plat form which w ill be decom m issioned in t he next 2 y ears. Building a new pipe
from Pet erhead t o Miller would hav e cost $350 m illion. Use of Miller w ill save $200 m illion
in decom m issioning cost s, which w ould be r equir ed t o dev elop a non- pr oducing field.
Lew is finished by out lining t hat t he proj ect is at present cost com pet it iv e wit h w ind
generat ion and t hat t hese cost s could be furt her halved in t he near fut ur e. BP has spent
$50 m illion on r esearching t he econom ics of t he Pet er head proj ect and Miller field, and
t hey ar e confident t hat t his is r eal v iable pr oj ect , not j ust a desk st udy . How ever, t his is
dependent on t he ener gy pr oduced by t he proj ect being purchased fr om t hem at a pr ice
equiv alent t o t hat of w ind pow er . Elect ricit y cost would be $90 MWhr init ially , r educing t o
$45 MWhr t hr ough lear ning. The CO2 cost s $10 per t on t o deliver t o Miller, and t he EOR
oil price used was $40/ bar r el.
The proj ect will also prov ide BP and t he UK wit h
exper ience of work ing wit h hydr ogen, a gas which w ill be ext rem ely im port ant as we
reduce our fossil fuel consum pt ion. Const ruct ion of t he plant could begin as ear ly as
Febr uar y 2007.
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Lew is’s t ake hom e m essage was t hat a gover nm ent fram ework is needed ( for low carbon
elect r icit y – lik e ROC for r enewables) , and public support is r equired t o m ake t he
Pet er head pr oj ect v iable. Willingness t o spread t he cost of t he m ore expensiv e low
carbon elect r icit y ov er t he ent ir e populat ion would only add pennies t o t he general
public’s energy bills.
8 ) CO 2 st or a ge, le a k a ge a nd ver ifica t ion.
D r. A. K. ( Ton y) Booe r of Sch lu m be r ge r Ca rb on Se rvice s focused on “CO 2 st or a ge ,
le a k a ge a n d ver ifica t ion ”. This second t alk of t he aft er noon com m enced by explaining
t hat subsurface CO2 capt ure st ret ches t he usual oil field pract ises of charact er isat ion and
m onit oring t hr ough ex t ension of space scales ( from r ock pores t o t he r eser voir, as a
focus of int erest , t o t he ov erburden and w ider basin- scale ex t ent ) and r equires m uch
longer t im e scales t han previously consider ed in oil fields. He went on t o st at e
t hat alt hough CO2 in t he surface has favourable propert ies t o enable m easur em ent s, t he
challenge of lim it ed access ( fr om t he surface or wells) m akes dir ect m easurem ent s and
int erpr et at ion difficult . Modelling is used t o fill in t he blanks, but t his br ings lim it s t o
what can be predict ed in t erm s of perform ance.
Tony highlight ed t hat full char act erizat ion is an essent ial part of t he select ion process.
I m port ant ly, he m ade clear t hat t here is lit t le point in m onit or ing if t he syst em being
m onit ored is not w ell underst ood. Howev er, t he pr ocess of select ing a suit able st orage
sit e w ill m ean t hat t he syst em should be w ell underst ood. The st or age sit e select ed will
be t he fundam ent al influence on perform ance and m onit or ing st rat egies. Per form ance
and r isk analysis will drive, and w ill be dr iv en by, m easurem ent t echniques which are
backed up by m odelling and sim ulat ion.
A key considerat ion of m onit or ing t echnologies is t hat st orage sit es are not designed t o
leak, and leakage, if it does occur, ar ises from unk now ns t hat can’t be m odelled
det erm inist ically. Thankfully , Schlum berger believ e t hat t he r isks can be det erm ined
st at ist ically. Caprock , fract ures and w ells ar e all possible point s of failur e, but leakage
along wells ( part icular ly old, abandoned ones) is seen as t he m ost lik ely. The bet t er
charact erised t he sit e, t he bet t er designed, t he low er t he r isk. Ex ist ing wells ar e
probably t he highest r isk leakage pat hs. How ev er, w ells can be inst r um ent ed for leaks
alt hough m at ur e oil & gas reserv oirs m ay have a large num ber of oil wells.
Tony highlight ed t hat acoust ic m et hods ar e especially suit ed t o m onit oring gas in t he
subsurface, since m odest am ount s of CO2 can m ak e significant differ ences in acoust ic
velocit ies or im pedance. He t hen w ent on t o m ent ion ot her m onit or ing m et hods including
seism ic surv eys, w hich are useful in m onit or ing wide scale dist r ibut ion of t he CO2 plum e
in r eser voirs and ult rasonics which can be ut ilized in boreholes t o m onit or casing and
cem ent condit ion and pot ent ial hydraulic leak age pat hs. He m ent ioned t hat cr oss- well
elect r om agnet ic surv ey s can also be used t o m onit or t he displacem ent of a fluid bet ween
t wo w ells. However, alt hough high qualit y im ages can be obt ained, t he geom et r ic
const raint of requir ing t wo w ells w it h an int ersect ing piece of r eser voir bet ween t hem can
be lim it ing. Micr o- seism icit y is anot her acoust ic t echnology w hich can be used t o m ap t he
boundaries of gr owing fract ur es – per haps useful for capr ock int egrit y m onit oring. I n
addit ion he m ent ioned t hat it is also possible t o obt ain physical sam ples of fluids from t he
for m at ion around a bor ehole enabling direct m easur em ent of t he r ocks’ physical
propert ies. He st at ed t hat convent ional logging m et hods, such as t he spect ral analysis of
gam m a rays, could also be used t o ident ify carbon and oxy gen signat ures fr om
for m at ions ar ound w ellbor es.
I n t he final sect ion of his t alk Tony focused on t he role t hat m odelling has t o play in
int erpr et at ion of m onit or ing m easur em ent s and confirm at ion of per form ance and r isk
param et ers. Dur ing t he lifet im e of a st orage sit e operat ion it is hoped t hat t he needs for
regular m onit oring m ay decline st eadily as great er cert aint y about subsurface condit ions
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and t he m igrat ion of CO2 dev elops. A final sur vey t o v er ify safe st orage of t he sit e is
expect ed t o be r equir ed before t he presum ed t ransfer of ow nership and liabilit y of t he
sit e back t o t he st at e.
Tony’s t ak e hom e m essage was t hat CCS is t he wor ld’s m ost v iable opport unit y t o r educe
CO2 em issions from fossil fuel and t herefore w e should st art now and we w ill lear n by
doing.
9 ) Bio- fue ls for co- fir ing: a sse ssing t he e nvir onm e nt a l
cost
D r. Rich a rd Tipp er of t h e Edinb u rgh Ce n t r e for Ca r bon M a n a gem en t t alk ed on:
Bio- fu e ls for co- firin g: a sse ssin g t h e en viron m e n t a l cost . This t hird t alk of t he
aft er noon session out lined t hat bio- energy is t he worlds 4 t h largest ener gy resource w hich
account s for ~ 14% pr im ary energy w or ldw ide and m uch m ore in developing count r ies
( 70% of pr im ary energy in Afr ica is from bio- energy ) . Anot her exam ple is Brazil w here
bio- et hanol is used for t ransport and elect ricit y generat ion. Bio- fuels repr esent a
considerable global r esource w hich could be equivalent t o burning 1 billion t onnes of oil.
I n t he UK policies are being im plem ent ed t hat will r equire fuel com panies t o supply m ore
t han 5% of t ransport fuel from bio sources.
Richard t hen m ov ed on t o t alk about t he k ey choices t hat need t o be m ade t o incr ease
bio- energy product ion. These included w hat land should be used for grow ing addit ional
crops t aking int o account pr oduct iv it y, rainfall, ot her cr op uses, pr ox im it y t o dem and and
alt er nat ive land uses. Ot her key choices m ent ioned were which cr ops should be grow n,
what for m of energy should t hey be used t o pr oduce ( heat , t ransport or pow er) and by
what pr ocess ( com bust ion, ferm ent at ion, est erificat ion, gasificat ion, py rolysis) . He went
on t o say t hat co- firing capabilit y is now inst alled in m ost UK pow er st at ions and t hat t he
m aj or it y of biom ass burnt in t he UK is fr om wast e. Curr ent ly wood chippings are only
slight ly m or e expensiv e t han coal ( w ood is £50 per t onne, coal £31) but due t o uncert ain
gover nm ent policy and a result ing lack of inv est m ent w ood chippings r em ain a r elat ively
unpopular fuel source. I n 2005, t he UK bur ned 1.4 Mt of biom ass, generat ing 1.5GW
elect r icit y . Coal cost s £10 / MWhr plus £1.43/ MWhr Clim at e Change Lev y; w ood cost s
£35 / MWhr wit h a £40/ MWhr ROC av ailable.
Richard also out lined t he env ir onm ent al concerns associat ed w it h biofuels including
carbon balance ( land use changes, int ensive farm ing) , Biodiv ersit y ( m onocult ure) ,
sust ainabilit y of m anagem ent ( ar e t rees being replant ed fast enough?) , wat er resources
and local pollut ion. Anot her im port ant considerat ion is t he act ual carbon em ission
reduct ion per t onne of biom ass which pr im ar ily depends on what bio- fuel is used and
what it is replacing. He st at ed t hat co- fir ing can avoid alm ost 2 t onnes of CO2 for 1 t onne
of burnt biom ass com pared w it h coal and t he best use of biom ass is for local heat ing,
inst ead of elect r icit y . Also t her e is a st rong possibilit y t hat bio- fuels could be com bined
wit h CCS for addit ional carbon r educt ion benefit s
I n his sum m ary sect ion, Richard highlight ed t hat opt im ising CO2 reduct ion fr om bioenergy is not an easy t ask. His t ake hom e m essage was t hat whilst local sust ainabilit y
issues ar e ext rem ely im port ant and should be t aken int o account , bio- energy needs t o be
consider ed as part of t he energy m ix bot h in t his count ry and globally.
1 0 ) “ CCS de ve lopm e nt s in China ” .
D r. Jon Gib bin s from t he UK con sor t iu m on ca rb on ca pt u r e an d st ora ge , I m p e ria l
Colleg e, Lon don , t alked on “ CCS de ve lop m en t s in Ch in a ” . I n t his final t alk of t he
session, Jon highlight ed t hat China is an exam ple of pot ent ial ‘carbon lock - in’ as a large
num ber of fossil fuel power st at ions ar e being built bet ween now and 2020. China has a
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key r ole t o play in t he drive t o m ove t he wor ld t o a low carbon econom y , and t he Chinese
know t his. The Chinese gov er nm ent are pr epared t o co- operat e w it h t he developed
nat ions on CCS and t his has result ed in a num ber of m eet ings, bot h int ernat ional and
Chinese. One of t hese was t he APEC st udy com plet ed in 2005 w hich ident ified CO2
sources and possible sinks in China and concluded t hat t here is a reasonable m at ch
bet ween sources and sinks in t he count ry . How ev er t he com plex geology would r equir e a
det ailed surv ey pr ior t o any proj ect being under t aken.
Jon w ent on t o highlight som e of t he ot her collaborat iv e pr oj ect s which hav e been
undert aken including t he j oint UK, China and EU near zero em issions coal pr oj ect and t he
COACH pr oj ect which inv est igat ed t he pot ent ial t o pr oduce hy drogen. Jon also
highlight ed t hat t her e are a num ber of pr oj ect s ongoing in China r egar ding conv ersion of
coal t o liquids and t hat by 2020 t he count ry ex pect s t o account for a quart er of t heir oil
dem and in t his way! 500 gasifers will be requir ed for t his and wit hout CCS t his will
significant ly incr ease t he count ry ’s CO2 em issions.
I n his sum m ary Jon point ed out t hat China is not going t o put any of it s own m oney int o
reducing CO2 em issions at t he m inut e as it will w eak en t heir posit ion in post Ky ot o
negot iat ions and also t hat t he count ry has far m or e urgent priorit ies t han CCS. How ev er,
t he count ry is k een t o t ake act ion, has a ‘can do’ at t it ude and w ill accept int er nat ional
support . At present any proj ect s are in t he ear ly st ages but goals and st akeholders hav e
been ident ified and proj ect select ion crit er ia is in t he process of being im plem ent ed, wit h
an int ent ion t o generat e elect ricit y w it h a dem onst rat or by 2014. Jon st at ed t hat in order
for any pr oj ect t o go ahead, confidence needs t o be build up t o prove t hat som eone will
act ually pay t he going r at e for near zero em ission coal in China. Anot her cr it ical fact or in
China’s decision- m ak ing is t he agenda on CCS in t he UK/ EU and US. China is k een t o be
seen t o be ‘using st at e of t he art ’ t echnologies and would welcom e any exam ples set by
t he dev eloped nat ions.
D I SCUSSI ON
I n t he discussion, t he quest ion of w hat t he speakers t hought t he UK should be doing w it h
regard t o CCS in an ideal wor ld was raised. Ther e was a com m on consensus bet ween all
t he speak ers t hat t he UK should t ak e advant age of t he Nort h Sea and act on pot ent ial
collaborat ion w it h Norway and ot her Eur opean nat ions t o set up real proj ect s on saline
aquifers. Enhanced Oil Recov ery w ill not be useful forever and t her efor e pot ent ial sit es
for specific CO2 st orage need t o be invest igat ed. I t was agreed t hat t he opport unit y t o
im plem ent CCS is her e now and t herefore needs gover nm ent act ion now. Act ion m eans
t hat t he gover nm ent should facilit at e build up of CCS plant s, and w hilst t he count ry m ay
need anot her energy r eview in next 5 y ears, CCS can buy us t im e and open up opt ions
for t he fut ur e. I t was agreed t hat t he gov er nm ent needs t o set up a sim ple policy on t he
fut ur e role of CCS.
The quest ion of sub- sea CO2 leakage and t he possible effect s t his leak age on t he m ar ine
env ironm ent was raised by t he floor. This was answered by t he panel by explaining t hat
a program t o m onit or t he effect s of CO2 off t he Norwegian coast is already in place and a
reassurance t hat , w it h a proper m onit or ing sy st em , leaks can be det ect ed. I t was also
highlight ed t hat Nort h Sea is a w ell k now n sit e in t erm s of geology but also of
ecosyst em s, t he locat ions of v ulnerable sit es ar e k now n and can be m onit ored.
A num ber of concerns wer e raised over bio- fuels including dam age t o t he env ironm ent
t hr ough t he increased growt h of plant s and if t her e act ually was a need t o com bine biofuels wit h CCS. This was addressed by t he panel explaining t hat t he nit rogen and carbon
cycle are closely link ed and t hat it is not lik ely t hat t race elem ent s w ould be deplet ed by
using bio- fuels. I t was highlight ed t hat clim at e change w ill also effect plant pr oduct iv it y,
possibly by incr easing product iv it y but also pot ent ially causing m or e drought s. I t was
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not ed t hat it would m ak e m or e sense t o com bine bio- fuels wit h CCS in order t o t ak e CO2
out of t he at m ospher e on a large scale.
The issue of w het her China would see t he r eason t o build CCS r eady power st at ions w hen
t he rest of t he w orld has not done so was also raised by t he floor. This was answered
wit h a reassurance t hat China are awar e of t he reasons t hat ex ist for reducing CO2
em issions and pr ov ided t hey do not hav e t o spend t heir own m oney t hey ar e happy t o
collaborat e w it h int er nat ional inv est ors on CCS.
The issue of w het her pre- com bust ion, as out lined for t he Pet er head proj ect , is t he
cheapest m et hod for carbon capt ur e was raised. This was answer ed by st at ing t hat BP
had chosen t he t echnique on space gr ounds ( r equir ing a sev ent h of t he ar ea needed for
post - com bust ion capt ur e) and because t hey believ e it has t he best opport unit y for cost
reduct ion in t he fut ur e. I t was point ed out t hat at present v ery few carbon separat ion
plant s ex ist and t hat t he pr ice of CO2 capt ur e is pr edom inant ly dependent on handling
t he CO2 and refract or failur es; k nowledge t ransfer and t echnique developm ent can
im pr ov e bot h of t hese issues and it is ant icipat ed t hat t he cost s will fall.
Finally t he quest ion of whet her ex ist ing t echnologies ar e sufficient t o m onit or CO2 st orage
sit es for t housands of years was raised. This was answ er ed by t he panel st at ing t hat
m odels st ill need t o be furt her dev eloped as t her e are m any different scenarios of CO2
m igrat ion t hat need t o be considered. Running sim ulat ions for t he longer t im escales
requir ed for carbon st orage is a unique challenge which needs t o be addr essed.
Geochem ical m odels also need t o be dev eloped t o predict CCS specific scenar ios, for
exam ple, pot ent ial salt deposit s in inj ect ion fluids which could inhibit inj ect ion. On t he
issue of m onit or ing t im escales it was highlight ed t hat m onit or ing should not be for it s
ow n sake and could be t aper ed as t he t im e fr om CO2 inj ect ion incr eases and possibly
could be st opped alt oget her if t he sit e was believed t o be fully underst ood. An analogy of
sm oke det ect ors in t he hom e was given by t he panel: hopefully t hey’ll never be used but
it ’s useful t o hav e t hem j ust in case and sim ilar principles w ill apply in m onit or ing
pot ent ial CO2 leakage!
The m eet ing was closed by Prof. St uart Haszeldine who praised t he w ide range of
subj ect s covered by t he t alks and t he short t erm and long t erm ideas and pr oj ect s t hat
wer e det ailed by t he speak ers.
Fin a lly, in a r e t u rn t o t h e in it ia l qu e st ion pose d a t t h e st ar t of t h e da y, a m ot ion
on w h e t h er CCS is a t e ch n ology t h at cou ld ad d t o su st a in ab ilit y of t h e UK en e rg y
m ix w as p roposed an d pu t t o t h e vot e . Th e m ot ion w a s ca rr ie d by
a pp roxim a t e ly 8 0 % of t h e a t t en de e s.
D ocu m en t a t ion :
Mor ning: Dr Mark Wilk inson ( Universit y of Edinburgh / UKERC)
Aft er noon: Dr St uart Gilfillan ( Universit y of Edinburgh / SCCS)
Edit or ial: Pr ofessor St uart Haszeldine ( Univ ersit y of Edinburgh / UKERC)
UKERC and t he UKCCSC ar e funded by t he UK Research Councils t hr ough NERC
SCCS is funded by t he Scot t ish Regional Ex ecut iv e t hr ough SFC
UK Energy Research Cent re