Department of Economics and Finance Working Paper: 2011014 November 2011 Stock Split Decisions: A Synthesis of Theory and Evidence http://www.cb.cityu.edu.hk/EF/research/research/workingpapers Yan He, Junbo Wang Abstract This paper reviews various studies of forward and reverse stock splits in the areas of motives for splits, split practices, split effects on firm value, and changes in market activities around splits. It focuses on three hypotheses and their extended evidence. As our analysis shows, the optimal price/tick hypothesis is widely supported and applied; the signaling hypothesis is supported by limited empirical results; and the procedure/structure hypothesis, backed up by some evidence, complements the first and second hypotheses. © 2011 by Junbo Wang. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Stock Split Decisions: A Synthesis of Theory and Evidence Yan He School of Business Indiana University Southeast New Albany, Indiana, U.S.A. Email: [email protected] Junbo Wang Department of Economics and Finance City University of Hong Kong Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon tong, Hong Kong Email: [email protected] July 21, 2011 Abstract This paper reviews various studies of forward and reverse stock splits in the areas of motives for splits, split practices, split effects on firm value, and changes in market activities around splits. It focuses on three hypotheses and their extended evidence. As our analysis shows, the optimal price/tick hypothesis is widely supported and applied; the signaling hypothesis is supported by limited empirical results; and the procedure/structure hypothesis, backed up by some evidence, complements the first and second hypotheses. JEL Classification: G10 Key words: stock split, forward split, reverse split, optimal price, optimal tick, signaling, market structure Stock Split Decisions: A Synthesis of Theory and Evidence I. Introduction Recently, a stock split event captured the attention of the business world. In January 2010, Berkshire Hathaway declared a 50-for-1 split in its Class B stock shares in order to acquire a railroad company.1 Such an event, together with the mounting research findings on stock splits during the 1990s and 2000s, rekindles the interest on stock splits for decision makers and practitioners such as corporate financial managers, equity investors, dealers/traders, and regulators. Most existing studies focus on forward splits because these are far more common than reverse splits. A forward split allows one share to split into a number of shares, resulting in more shares but a lower price per share. Financial instruments other than stocks, such as mutual funds, closed-end funds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), can also split into more shares. A reverse split combines several shares into one share, resulting in a higher price per share and fewer shares outstanding. For purposes of studying the effects of splits, a “split event” is said to start with the announcement of the intention to split. The actual split occurs about two months later when the stock price and the number of shares are adjusted accordingly. Thus, the “announcement day” and the “ex-split day” are two important events separated by about 52 days (French and Foster, 2002). Usually, the pre-split period is defined as the time period before the announcement 1 The split, which occurred before Berkshire Hathaway bought Burlington Northern Santa Fe, reduced the B-share price of Berkshire Hathaway from $3,381 to $67 in order to match the price of Burlington shares (see Section 2.1.7 of this paper). 1 day; the in-between period comprises the announcement day to the ex-split day; and the post-split period is the time period following the ex-split day. Researchers have observed and analyzed various corporate and market activities before, during, and after splits. They have explored issues such as the motives for splits, split practices in relation to motives, splits’ effect on firm value, and changes in market activities around splits. This paper provides a review and summary of stock split literature and addresses the following questions: Why do firms split their stocks? Is the rationale to lower share price or to signal good news? Do other corporate events such as mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) or external factors such as a change in market regulation affect the split decision? What makes a fund or an American Depository Receipt (ADR) split its shares? Do split practices such as the frequency of splits, the split factor, and signal credibility relate to the split motives? If so, how? Does a split event affect firm value? Does the positive abnormal return upon a split announcement fully reflect good news? Are the announcement effects the same for stocks with option trading as for stocks without option trading? Will a split enlarge the investor base? Do the cash flows (dividends and earnings) actually increase after a split? How does a split event affect various aspects of trading in the market? Is the market more or less liquid after a split? Does a split affect bid-ask spread, depth of trading, and trading volume? Will a split influence return volatility, limit order trading, the 2 number of small trades, price clustering, the profits of market makers, short interests, and information asymmetry? In answer to the questions above, current literature offers various explanations. This paper analyzes the three major hypotheses of existing theories: optimal price/tick, signaling, and procedure/structure. The optimal price/tick hypothesis claims that splits return the stock price and the relative tick size to their own optimal range. The signaling hypothesis argues that splits reveal information about firms’ future performance. The procedure/structure hypothesis explains how a particular feature/structure/rule can cause a certain phenomenon in relation to splits. In all, these theories help illustrate the empirical findings with respect to split motives, split practices, the effect of splits on firm value, and changes in market activities around splits. Our study is largely in line with the existing literature involving stock splits and other distributions (see, for example, Baker, Phillips, and Powell, 1995; Kiymaz, 2009; Michayluk, 2009; Baker, Singleton, and Veit, 2011). The contribution of our study lies in two areas. First, we focus solely on splits, providing updated and extensive evidence for each of the three major hypotheses. Second, our analysis shows that while the signaling hypothesis is not as well supported as we thought, the optimal price/tick hypothesis and the procedure/structure hypothesis are founded on abundant empirical evidence. In this paper, we categorize the existing studies according to three major hypotheses. Specifically, we classify each empirical issue as either supporting or contrary evidence for a hypothesis. Supporting evidence is defined as an empirical issue that entirely supports a hypothesis. Contrary evidence is either an empirical issue that entirely 3 contradicts a hypothesis, or a self-conflicting issue that has results both for and against a hypothesis. We find that the optimal price/tick hypothesis is widely and strongly supported by empirical results. The signaling hypothesis is less strongly supported. The procedure/structure hypothesis, backed up by some studies, complements the optimal price/tick and the signaling hypotheses. This paper is organized as follows. Section II presents the optimal price/tick hypothesis and extended evidence. Section III analyzes the signaling hypothesis and extended evidence. Section IV discusses the procedure/structure hypothesis and extended evidence. Section V concludes the paper. II. The Optimal Price/Tick Hypothesis and Extended Evidence Most of the stocks in the U.S. equity markets trade at a price between $10 and $200. The minimum price movement (i.e., the tick size) in the NYSE and Nasdaq markets today is $0.01. Between 1997 and 2000 the minimum tick size was 1/16 of a dollar whereas before 1997 it was 1/8 of a dollar. The optimal price/tick hypothesis states that for a given stock both the price and the relative tick size have an optimal range. Here, relative tick size is defined as the minimum price movement divided by the stock price. For firms with a price too high and a relative tick size too low, a split event may help lower the price and increase the relative tick size to the optimal level. For firms with a price too low and a relative tick size too high, a reverse split may help move the price and tick back to optimal. In terms of price levels, forward splitting firms and reverse splitting firms differ dramatically. For instance, the average share price of forward splitting firms in the United States is about $50 before 4 splits and $28 after splits (Koski, 1998), while firms that execute reverse splits have an average pre-split price of $1.21 per share (Koski, 2007). The optimal price/tick hypothesis is a widely accepted and applied theory. Sections 2.1, 2.2, and 2.3 analyze important findings in relation to this hypothesis. Table 1 provides a summary of these findings as well as information about the author(s), the year of publication, and the characteristics of the sample. Specifically, Panel A of Table 1 presents the supporting evidence for the optimal price hypothesis; Panel B, the supporting evidence for the optimal tick hypothesis; and Panel C, the contrary evidence for the optimal price/tick hypothesis. [Insert Table 1 about here.] 2.1. Supporting evidence for the optimal price hypothesis 2.1.1. Stock price variations Although prices vary considerably across stocks, the average price for all stocks in a market tends to be stable. According to Angel (1997), the median U.S. stock price is about $40, a typical London stock price is about £5 ($7.50), a typical Hong Kong stock price is about HK$22 ($2), and a typical U.S. initial public offering (IPO) is priced at about $10. Moreover, from 1943 to 1994, the average NYSE share price remained almost the same (ranging from $32 to $31), in spite of the fact that the S&P 500 Composite Index increased over 15 times during the same period. Therefore, an optimal trading range does seem to exist for the stock price of a given firm. This view is further analyzed and strengthened in a value creation framework by Dyl and Elliot (2006). They explain the substantial variation in the prices of common stocks in the U.S. markets and conclude 5 that a firm not only targets a particular stock price range, but also manages its price level (by using splits, for example) in order to increase its firm value. 2.1.2. Price before and after splits Lakonishok and Lev (1987) compare stock prices in two samples: splitting firms and non-splitting firms. They analyze monthly stock prices five years before and five years after the month of a split announcement. During the four to five years before the split, the average prices of the two samples are quite close. However, within four years before the split, the prices of splitting firms become significantly higher than the prices of non-splitting firms as the date of the split announcement approaches. During the postsplit period, the average price gap between the two samples quickly narrows, and, in the fourth month after the split announcement, vanishes. Thereafter, the average prices of the two samples are almost identical during one to five years subsequent to the split. Hence, when the price of a firm has risen to a high level, a split event tends to happen in order to adjust the price to an acceptable or normal level. 2.1.3. Split factor and frequency Lakonishok and Lev (1987) study the size of a split (i.e., the split factor) and conclude that the motivation for stock splits is to return the price to a level that is consistent with that of other firms in the industry and with market averages. They find that the larger the deviation of a firm’s stock price from the industry and market-wide average, the greater the split factor. Huang, Liano, Manakyan, and Pan (2008) examine the frequency of splits. A firm in the frequent split group is defined as one with three or more splits announced in a five-year period. During the period 1967 to 2000, about 18% 6 of splits are classified as frequent, while the rest are classified as infrequent. Results show that frequent splits are consistent with the trading range hypothesis (rather than the signaling hypothesis). 2.1.4. Investor base before and after splits Practitioners have long claimed that splits broaden a firm’s shareholder base by increasing the number of investors. A firm may attempt to select a trading range for its share price that enlarges the firm’s investor base. An increase in the size of the firm’s investor base may improve analysts’ awareness of the firm and lead to an increase in the market value of the firm. Brennan and Hughes (1991) document a positive relationship between the change in the number of analysts following a split and the split factor, implying that splits attract analysts’ attention. According to Maloney and Mulherin (1992) and Mukherji, Kim, and Walker (1997), the number of shareholders increases after a stock split. As Dyl and Elliot (2006) report, the increase in the number of shareholders of splitting firms is 59% greater than that of non-splitting firms during the first four post-split years. Further, Maloney and Mulherin (1992), Powell and Baker (1993/1994), and Dennis and Strickland (2003) find that institutional ownership increases after splits.2 2.1.5. ADR split Muscarella and Vetsuypens (1996) examine cases in which ADRs split in the U.S., whereas the home-country stocks underlying the ADRs do not. Their results support 2 According to Dennis and Strickland (2003), the largest post-split increase in institutional ownership occurs for firms that have the lowest institutional ownership before the split. In addition, the level of presplit institutional ownership is negatively related to the change in liquidity, and is also negatively related to the post-split abnormal return. 7 the optimal price hypothesis rather than the signaling hypothesis. If a firm wants to signal good news, it will split the home-country stock as well as the ADR. Since only the ADRs split, the purpose of the split is to return the ADR price to an optimal range. Also, there are no abnormal changes in post-split earnings for firms that split their ADRs. 2.1.6. Fund split 3 Since funds represent an aggregation of firms, various kinds of news from individual firms are diversified away. Thus, the signaling hypothesis does not apply here. Fund splits give rise to higher asset value, a larger investor base, positive abnormal stock return, and higher liquidity. Hence, fund splits support the optimal price hypothesis. Specifically, Fernando, Krishnamurthy, and Spindt (1999), who explore splits of openend mutual fund shares, find significant increases in net assets and in number of shareholders after splits. Thus, splits enhance the marketability of mutual funds. Datar and Dubofsky (1999) study the split announcement effect of closed-end funds. Compared with individual firms, closed-end funds react no differently to split announcements in terms of positive abnormal return. Dennis (2003) investigates the liquidity of an ETF (i.e., the Nasdaq-100 tracking stock that has a 2-for-1 split). Although the post-split relative bid-ask spread is higher, and the daily turnover is unchanged, frequency, share volume, and dollar-volume of small trades all increase after the split, indicating that splitting improves liquidity for small trades. 3 Here “fund” includes open-end funds, closed-end funds, and exchange-traded funds. 8 2.1.7. Split before an M&A Splits occurring before M&As are intended to make the stock prices of the acquiring firms more attractive to the acquired firms’ shareholders; that is, they restore the stock price to an optimal range. For example, before Berkshire Hathaway bought Burlington Northern Santa Fe, its B shares experienced a 50-for-1 split, reducing the Bshare price of Berkshire Hathaway from $3,381 to $67. Such a 50-for-1 split in Berkshire’s Class B shares facilitated Burlington shareholders exchanging their stocks for Berkshire’s. Further, Guo, Liu, and Song (2008) report that acquiring firms are more likely than non-acquiring firms to split their stocks before making acquisition announcements, especially when acquisitions are financed by stock and when the deal is large. 2.1.8. Split before an SEO Like splits preceding acquisitions, splits occurring before SEOs are intended to make the stock prices of the equity-issuing firms more attractive to potential investors. D’Mello, Tawatnuntachai, and Yaman (2003) point out that a split lowers the stock price, makes the subsequent SEO more marketable to individual investors, and increases the investor base. Thus, relative to firms that conduct an SEO only, firms that split their stock shares and then issue stocks sell new shares at a higher price and raise more capital. 2.2. Supporting evidence for the optimal tick hypothesis 2.2.1. Relative tick size variations Equity markets throughout the world use either a single absolute tick size or a tick size that is a step function of share price. The absolute tick size approach applies to most 9 markets, including the U.S. markets.4 The London Stock Exchange and the Irish Stock Exchange have no formal rules, but most stocks trade in penny and, in a few instances, half-pennies. The step function approach is applied in Tokyo and Hong Kong. At the Tokyo Stock Exchange, a typical stock under ¥1,000 has a tick size of ¥1; at ¥1,000, the tick size jumps to ¥10; and at ¥10,000, the tick size jumps to ¥100. Hong Kong has the most extreme version of a step function, with 10 different tick sizes. Overall, for markets using either the absolute tick or the step function approach, the relative tick size (i.e., the tick size divided by the stock price) seems remarkably consistent across countries, with a median of 25.9 basis points (the median in the U.S. is 33 basis points). Additionally, the ratio of bid-ask spread to tick size is also consistent, with a median of 3.7 (1.0 in the U.S.). Therefore, an optimal range of relative tick size may exist for trading in a given firm’s stock (Angel, 1997). One motivation for splits may be to increase the relative tick size to desired levels because a larger tick size may result in more profitable marketmaking. 2.2.2. Clustering before and after splits When the absolute tick size in dollars is held constant, the larger the stock price, the higher the rounding frequencies on “0”s and “5”s, reducing the negotiation costs for transactions (see Harris, 1991). A forward split leads to a lower stock price, while the absolute tick size in dollars remains the same. Thus, the clustering on “0”s and “5”s is expected to decrease after splits in relation to a bigger relative tick size. As French and 4 According to Angel (1997), the convention of 1/8 of a dollar as the tick size on the NYSE dates back to 1915, when the NYSE switched from quoting prices as a percentage of par value to quoting in dollars. Prior to 1915, the minimum price variation had been 1/8 of a percent, a practice that dates back at least as far as 1817 when NYSE trading was formalized. The 1/8 of a dollar tick size lasted until 1997 in the U.S. markets, when tick size was reduced to 1/16 of a dollar. In 2000, tick size was further reduced to a penny. 10 Foster (2002) show, post-split clustering is lower than pre-split clustering for NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ stocks. Moreover, these results remain valid for both the $1/8tick-size period and the $1/16-tick-size period. 2.2.3. Limit orders before and after splits Limit orders tend to increase as the relative tick size becomes larger. As Angel (1997) finds, limit orders on the NYSE are used less frequently in stocks with a smaller relative tick size. Since the relative tick size increases after splits, limit orders tend to increase. Easley, O’Hara, and Saar (2001) document an increase in the number of executed limit orders after splits, though this effect is overshadowed by the increase in the costs of executing market orders due to the larger percentage spreads. 2.2.4. Profits to market makers before and after splits Due to the bigger relative tick size after splits, the percentage bid-ask spread increases, trading errors reduce, and negotiation costs diminish. On the one hand, postsplit transactions become more costly to investors due to larger percentage bid-ask spreads.5 On the other hand, they become more profitable to market makers/brokers by lowering the costs of market making, increasing the incentive of market makers to provide inside quotes, and increasing dealers’ revenues. Schultz (2000) finds that the percentage effective spread increases after splits, whereas the percentage of error trades declines following splits. Gray, Smith, and Whaley (2003) document bigger revenues for 5 The percentage bid-ask spread increases following stock splits. See Conroy, Harris, and Benet (1990); Schultz (2000); Dennis (2003); and Gray, Smith, and Whaley (2003). 11 market makers after splits.6 Their results show that the average daily revenue is $24,360 before the announcement of the split and $34,330 after the split, an increase of 40.9%. Thus, stock splits appear to generate considerable additional revenue for market makers. 2.2.5. Small investors/trades before and after splits According to the broker promotion argument, the increase in relative bid-ask spread after a split induces brokers to promote splitting stocks to small investors. Thus, a positive cross-sectional relation may exist between changes in the spread and changes in the frequency of small trades around the ex-split dates. Furthermore, this relation may be attenuated subsequent to decimalization (i.e., the tick size reduced to one penny). In line with the broker promotion argument, Kadapakkam, Krishnamurthy, and Tse (2005) show that during the $l/8-tick-size period, the relative spread increases significantly after the ex-split day, the average buy order size decreases, the frequency of small transactions increases, and the abnormal returns around the ex-split day are positive and significant. During the decimal pricing period, these changes are smaller in magnitude, and the abnormal returns around the ex-split day are not significant. Baixauli (2007) finds significant abnormal returns around the ex-split day for split factors greater than 2 and attributes the abnormal returns to an increase in the number of small investors. 2.2.6. Volatility before and after splits For forward splits, the volatility of daily stock returns increases by an average of 35% subsequent to ex-split days (Ohlson and Penman, 1985). This increase occurs as a 6 They introduce a measure of market-making revenue as the volume-weighted effective spread on a particular day times the number of shares traded during the day, i.e., the product of one-half of the volumeweighted effective spread and the daily trading volume in shares. Here, one-half of the effective bid/ask spread can be interpreted as either the investor’s trading cost per share or the market maker’s revenue per share. 12 jump on the ex-split day, and the new higher level of return volatility persists over one year. There is no evidence of a gradual increase in volatility before the ex-split day. Further, Dravid (1987) extends the volatility studies to all types of stock distributions, including smaller splits and stock dividends; Sheikh (1989) documents the ex-date increase in implied return variances for stocks with options; Koski (1998) shows that variance increases after splits even with control of bid-ask spread and price discreteness; and Kryzanowski and Zhang (1996) report similar volatility behavior for stocks traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange. For reverse splits, the daily return volatility decreases by 25% after ex-split days (Koski, 2007). The explanations for the volatility changes due to forward or reverse splits are largely related to the following issues within the framework of the optimal tick hypothesis: the increase in relative tick size or percentage bid-ask spread after forward splits, the increase in trades or small trades after forward splits, and the decrease in relative tick size or percentage bid-ask spread after reverse splits. First, the increases in relative tick size and relative bid-ask spread have limited power in explaining the increase in volatility after forward splits. Dubofsky (1991) observes the volatility change around splits on both the AMEX and the NYSE. For the AMEX stocks, post-split volatility increases when daily returns are used to compute volatility, but such an increase disappears when using weekly returns. Since weekly returns do not contain much price discreteness and bid-ask bounce effects, the volatility does not change after splits. Thus, the increase in daily return volatility on the AMEX can 13 be attributed to market microstructure factors. For the NYSE stocks, however, post-split volatility always increases, regardless of whether daily or weekly returns are computed.7 Second, the increase in trades or small trades may help explain the volatility increase after forward splits. As Lamoureux and Poon (1987) point out, splits give rise to increases in both the number of transactions and the number of shares traded, thereby increasing the volatility of the price series. According to Chen and Wu (2009), small trades increase significantly after splits, and the increase in return volatility is strongly related to the increase in small trades.8 Moreover, the results are robust to different measures of trading activity and return volatility. Third, decreases in relative tick size and relative bid-ask spread may partially explain the decrease in volatility after reverse splits. Koski (2007) shows that market microstructure factors may affect volatility, especially for lower priced stocks. Based on observed daily returns, volatility decreases by 25% after reverse splits. Controlling for bid–ask bounce, volatility still decreases for stocks with prices above $5.00. However, for stocks priced below $2.00, volatility increases slightly. The portion of observed volatility attributable to microstructure effects declines as the stock price increases and as the relative tick size decreases. Thus, for stocks with high prices, microstructure effects may 7 Some studies find that tick size or bid-ask spread has no power in explaining the volatility increase. Ohlson and Penman (1985) test price discreteness as a cause of post-split variance increase by computing the percent of stocks with variance increases by share price level. They find that the portion of stocks with variance increases does not increase monotonically as price level drops. Koski (1998) removes the effect of bid-ask bounce by computing bid-to-bid (and ask-to-ask) daily (and weekly) returns and finds that postsplit variance still increases. French and Foster (2002) document that daily return variances increase significantly following stock splits and that the results are generally unaffected by the 1997 tick size reduction from 1/8 to 1/16 of a dollar. 8 Here small trades are defined as orders with a number of transacted shares less than or equal to 500 shares. 14 not be responsible for the change in volatility after reverse splits; for stocks with low prices, microstructure effects may help explain the decrease in volatility. 2.3. Contrary evidence regarding the optimal price/tick hypothesis 2.3.1. Liquidity before and after splits Greater liquidity may arise in certain price ranges than in others. If splits are to restore the price/tick to an optimal range, they may give rise to more liquid markets for trading stocks. However, existing studies present confounding empirical results. Therefore, whether market liquidity enhances or worsens after splits is still unclear. According to the liquidity improvement argument, forward splits lead to a lower stock price per share, an enlarged equity ownership base, an increased number of small trades (particularly small buy orders submitted by individuals), and a more liquid market (Baker and Gallagher, 1980; Baker and Powell, 1993; Muscarella and Vetsuypens, 1996). Also, Lin, Singh, and Yu (2009) support the argument for post-split liquidity improvement by examining trading continuity, using daily data during 1975 to 2004.9 They find that the incidence of no trading decreases and that market liquidity improves following splits, implying a decline in latent trading costs and a reduced cost of equity capital. Furthermore, the post-split improvements in liquidity are correlated with the presplit announcement returns, suggesting nontrivial economic benefits. As for reverse splits, although they lead to a higher price per share, they may also improve liquidity. 9 Trading continuity reflects liquidity, whereas trading discontinuity or non-trading reflects illiquidity. The degree of trading discontinuity for each stock is measured as the standardized turnover-adjusted number of days with zero trading volume over the prior 12 months. 15 Han (1995) finds a decrease in bid-ask spread, an increase in trading volume, and a reduction in the number of non-trading days after reverse splits. According to the liquidity reduction argument, percentage bid-ask spreads or transaction costs increase and trading volume decreases after splits. For the larger percentage bid-ask spread or smaller depth, Lin, Singh, and Yu (2009) report that both Roll’s (1984) spread and the Gibbs estimate of Roll’s spread increase significantly following the splits, and Gray, Smith, and Whaley (2003) show that stock splits adversely affect the trading quality that incorporates both spread and depth.10 For the reduced trading volume, Copeland (1979), Murray (1985), and Lamoureux and Poon (1987) report a decrease in dollar trading volume after splits, and Lakonishok and Lev (1987) document both a pre-split abnormal increase in volume and a post-split decrease in volume.11 III. The Signaling Hypothesis and Extended Evidence The signaling hypothesis argues that a firm’s split announcement conveys inside information about the firm’s future performance to outside investors. A forward split reveals good news, while a reverse split reveals bad news. Unlike the optimal price/tick hypothesis, however, the signaling hypothesis is supported by only a limited number of 10 Gray, Smith, and Whaley (2003) introduce a market quality index measure that is the average depth on one side divided by the product of the percentage bid-ask spread and the split adjustment. The higher the index, the more liquid the market is. Their results show that the quality index falls from 8.19 in the preannouncement period to 5.16 in the post-split period, a decrease of 37.1%. 11 Lakonishok and Lev (1987) use a turnover rate as a measure for volume, calculated as the monthly number of shares traded relative to the number of shares outstanding at the same date for a given stock. From five years up to one year before the announcement, the average turnover rates of the test and control samples were almost identical. Significant differences in turnover rates between the split and control samples appear twelve months before the split announcement and, in particular, eight months before it. These differences peak in the split announcement month and vanish by the second month following the split announcement (i.e., around the ex-split day). 16 findings. Section 3.1 presents the supporting evidence and Section 3.2 shows the contrary evidence. Table 2 presents a summary of the evidence supplemented by information about the author(s), year of publication, and sample characteristics. [Insert Table 2 about here.] 3.1. Supporting evidence for the signaling hypothesis 3.1.1. Split announcement effect For forward splits, Grinblatt, Masulis, and Titman (1984) document that an announcement of a stock split generates a positive abnormal return of about 3% and may thus signal good news about the firm’s future performance. Brennan and Copeland (1988) use the number of shares that will be outstanding after a split as a signal to explain the announcement effect. Szewczyk and Tsetsekos (1993) demonstrate an inverse relationship between managerial ownership and abnormal announcement returns. Arbel and Swanson (1993) find that the magnitude of the announcement effect is greater for information-poor stocks than information-rich stocks, where information richness is measured by the number of analysts making annual estimates of firm earnings. For reverse splits, Woolridge and Chambers (1983) show that the market reacts unfavorably to reverse-split announcements, implying that the announcement of a reverse split sends out a signal of bad news. Peterson and Peterson (1992) report that discretionary reverse splits are associated with negative announcement effects, where discretionary reverse splits are defined as reverse splits initiated by the informed party (i.e., management) rather than the uninformed party (e.g., an exchange). 17 3.1.2. Infrequent split According to Huang, Liano, Manakyan, and Pan (2008), about 82% of splits between 1967 and 2000 are classified as infrequent splits.12 For these infrequent splitters, the announcement effect is significantly related to the split factor, dividend yield, and firm size. Thus, a split event, which happens rarely for a firm, may signal to outside investors a firm’s good performance in the future. 3.1.3. Split factor The size of the split (or split factor) may convey information about future performance. McNichols and Dravid (1990) point out that earnings forecast errors measure management's private information. They find that the difference between actual and forecasted earnings following a split tends to be directly related to the size of the split factor. So, firms may choose their split factors to signal management’s private information about future earnings. Conroy and Harris (1999) examine split factors, split announcement returns, and revisions of analysts’ earnings forecasts. They find that a firm’s past history of splits plays a crucial role in the design and effect of current splits. Most of the time, current splits are seemingly designed to return the stock price to the level achieved after the last split. However, if a split factor is designed to achieve an even lower price than the last split, both investors and analysts interpret this as a signal of especially positive information. Thus, the current split factor relative to the last split (or the expected level of share price after a split) plays an important information role. 12 A firm in the infrequent stock split group is a firm with two or fewer splits announced in five years, and a firm in the frequent stock split group is a firm with more than two splits announced in five years. 18 3.1.4. Credibility of split signal The split procedure itself does not cause any change in the total wealth of each investor or the firm. Instead, it signals something about the firm’s future cash flows and performance. To make the signal credible, costs must be associated with the signal. Otherwise, firms that do not expect good performance in the future can easily split their shares to manipulate their stock prices. As the retained earnings argument posits, a firm that chooses to account for its stock share distribution by voluntarily reducing retained earnings is presumed to be signaling management's confidence in its future earnings (Grinblatt, Masulis, and Titman, 1984; Rankine and Stice, 1997).13 Bechmann and Raaballe (2007) support the argument of retained earnings by investigating stock splits on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange (CSE). They find that the announcement effect of stock splits is closely related to the change in a firm’s dividend payout policy. When a split announcement proceeds without an increase in total cash dividends, no significant announcement effect is observed. This is because the retained earnings are unchanged, and the signal revealed by the announcement is not linked with any cost. In contrast, when a split is announced together with an increase in total cash dividends, the signal is costly to the firm and credible to outside investors. In this case, a highly significant abnormal return of 3.51% is observed at the split announcement. 13 Crawford, Franz, and Lobo (2005), however, criticize the retained earnings argument. They point out that the findings in support of the retained earnings argument can be attributed to specification and measurement choices that bias the results in favor of the argument. Support for the argument becomes weaker when the sources of this bias are removed. 19 3.1.5. Split of stocks with options Abnormal positive returns at the split announcement tend to be significantly lower for optioned as opposed to non-optioned stocks. Chern, Tandon, Yu, and Webb (2008) find that abnormal returns are significantly lower for NYSE/AMEX optioned stocks than for non-optioned stocks, after controlling for market returns, capitalization, book-tomarket ratio, and trading volume. Their findings are consistent with the explanation that prices of optioned stocks embody more information, thus diminishing the information impact of the stock split announcement. Therefore, split announcements do reveal inside information to outside investors. The signaling effect is stronger for stocks without options than for stocks with options. 3.2. Contrary evidence regarding the signaling hypothesis 3.2.1. Post-split earnings and dividends If forward splits signal good news about future cash flows, post-split earnings and dividends should increase. This view is supported by most previous studies on earnings and dividends, but questioned by some recent findings. The supporting evidence regarding post-split earnings and dividends is illustrated as follows. Lakonishok and Lev (1987) analyze growth in earnings and cash dividends five years before and five years after the month of announcement. They find that splitting firms enjoy unusually favorable earnings performance during the pre-split period relative to similar, non-splitting firms. The above-normal earnings growth of splitting firms persists in the first post-split year although the test-control difference is considerably smaller than that in the pre-announcement years. The pre-announcement data indicate 20 that the dividend growth rates of splitting firms are higher than those of control firms. But the differences in the dividend growth rates between the test and control samples are substantially smaller than those of the earnings growth rates. For the 5-year period following the split announcement, dividend growth for the test sample is higher than for the control sample. All in all, earnings growth tends to stabilize subsequent to the abnormal pre-split growth, and cash dividends prospects tend to improve after splits. Pilotte and Manuel (1996) report that when firms split their stock multiple times, the abnormal return at the announcement of the second split is directly proportional to the earnings surprise following the first split. Tawatnuntachai and D’Mello (2002) study the industry response to a firm’s split announcement. Their results show positive and significant abnormal returns for non-splitting firms in the industry at the announcement of a firm’s split. Also, these non-splitting firms’ earnings increase significantly and the earnings changes are positively related to the stock price reactions. Thus, splits may also signal good news about the future performance of the industry. Some recent studies on post-split dividends and earnings challenge the signaling view. Nayak and Prabhala (2001) investigate whether splits signal information about future dividends; that is, whether the positive abnormal return around splits can be attributed to the implied promise of higher dividends in the future. They examine dividend-paying firms and non-dividend-paying firms and develop econometric methods that obtain the part of value effects due to dividend information. Results show that a large portion (46%) of valuation effects around splits cannot be attributed to dividend information. Huang, Liano, and Pan (2006) examine whether splits contain information 21 about future profitability, measured as future earnings change, future earnings, or future abnormal earnings. Little evidence is found that splits are positively related to future profitability. Rather, splits are in general negatively related to profitability in years subsequent to the split announcement, except for dividend-paying firms with a split factor less than 0.5. The conclusion is that splits are not useful signals of a firm’s future earnings prospects. 3.2.2. Post-split stock return If forward splits reveal good news about firms’ future performance, then the postsplit abnormal stock return should be positive and significant, and the opposite should be true for reverse splits. This view is supported by plenty of studies on stock returns, but criticized in some recent findings. The supporting evidence regarding post-split stock returns follows. Ikenberry, Rankine, and Stice (1996) document higher post-split stock returns for splitting firms than for non-splitting firms, based on the data from 1975-1990. Desai and Jain (1997) study the long term post-split return for both forward and reverse splits, based on data from 1976 to 1991. For forward splits, while the average abnormal return of the announcement month is about 7.1%, the 1-year and 3-year buy-and-hold abnormal returns after the announcement month are 7% and 12%, respectively. For reverse splits, while the average abnormal return of the announcement month is -4.6%, the 1-year and 3-year abnormal returns after the announcement month are -11% and -34%, respectively. The positive drift after forward splits and the negative drift after reverse splits imply that the market under-reacts to both forward and reverse split announcements during the 22 announcement month. In line with the argument of market under-reaction to split news, Ikenberry and Ramnath (2002) report a drift of 9% abnormal return in the year following a split announcement and find that splitting firms have a low propensity to experience a contraction in future earnings, based on data from the period 1988 to 1997. They also mention market under-reaction for other self-selected corporate events such as reverse splits, spin-offs, dividends, equity issuance, and mergers. Finally, Kim, Klein, and Rosenfeld (2008) examine the long-run performance for firms with reverse splits during the sample period 1962 to 2001. They find significant negative abnormal returns over the 3-year period after the month of a reverse split. Martell and Webb (2008) state that in the three to five months following reverse splits, the performance of reverse-splitting stocks in poor market conditions is less negative than in good market conditions. Overall, the above-referenced supporting evidence suggests informational inefficiency; that is, the market tends to under-react to split news at the announcements. Some studies on post-split returns confront the signaling view and argue for market efficiency. Byun and Rozeff (2003) measure the post-split performance of a large stock sample over a long period (i.e., 12,747 stock splits from 1927 to 1996). The authors use two different methods to measure abnormal returns: first, size and book-to-market reference portfolios with bootstrapping, and, second, calendar-time abnormal returns combined with factor models. For splits 25% or larger, neither method finds post-split returns significantly different from zero. Thus, the evidence of market inefficiency with respect to splits is neither pervasive nor compelling. In other words, stock splits are not followed by abnormally positive returns and investors do not systematically under-react 23 to stock splits at the announcements. Boehme and Danielsen (2007) explore the relationship between stock splits and subsequent long-term returns during the period 1950 to 2000. They find that firms do not exhibit positive long-term post-split returns; that is, significant positive returns after the announcement day do not persist after the actual day of the stock split. Hwang, Keswani, and Shackleton (2008) examine the longrun reaction to split announcements by differentiating anticipated announcements from surprise announcements. Credibility explains why a post-split performance gap exists between predicted and unanticipated splits. Firms that announce anticipated splits enjoy much stronger performance before their announcement. The good news that they want to convey through their splitting decision is viewed credibly. Thus, the market reacts efficiently to an anticipated split announcement and not much drift is observed later. In contrast, firms that announce surprise splits have lower credibility. This translates into an under-reaction to announcements at first and, later, a pronounced positive drift. 3.2.3. Information asymmetry before and after splits According to the signaling hypothesis, firms split their stock shares to reveal inside information about future performance to outside investors; in other words, a stock split serves to reduce information asymmetry between insiders and outsiders. However, studies find either no change or an increase in information asymmetry after splits, contradicting the signaling hypothesis. Desai, Nimalendran, and Venkataraman (1998) examine bid-ask spread and its components before and after splits, based on Nasdaq stocks during the years 1983 to 1990. They use both the bid-to-bid daily prices and the George, Kaul, and Nimalendran (1991) method to decompose the bid-ask spread. Results 24 show that the percentage spread, the order processing component, and the adverse information component all increase after splits. Easley, O’Hara, and Saar (2001) find no evidence consistent with the hypothesis that stock splits reduce information asymmetry. They show that after the split, both uninformed and informed trading activities increase. D’Mello, Tawatnuntachai, and Yaman (2003) compare firms that conduct stock splits and then SEOs with firms that conduct SEOs only. The authors find no difference in equity announcement and issue period returns between the split-and-then-SEO firms and the SEO-only firms, suggesting that firms do not split to reveal information or to reduce adverse information. 3.2.4. Short interest before and after splits If forward splits signal positive information about firms’ future performance, then short interest is expected to decline at the split announcement. However, such a view is not backed up by empirical findings. Kadiyala and Vetsuypens (2002) examine the change in short interest in relation to splits during the period 1990 to 1994. Contrary to the signaling hypothesis, their results show that short interest does not decline around splits and that the change in short interest has considerable variation across different firms. IV. The Procedure/Structure Hypothesis and Extended Evidence Although the optimal price/tick hypothesis and the signaling hypothesis are two popular theories, they cannot explain all empirical findings related to splits. Thus, a third hypothesis emerges: the procedure/structure hypothesis. It explores the features of the split procedure, the market structure of trading around splits, and the regulatory rules that 25 affect splits. This hypothesis examines how a particular feature/structure/rule can cause a certain empirical phenomenon in relation to splits. The hypothesis provides systematic explanations for the following phenomena: positive return between the announcement day and the ex-split day, negative return on the record day, positive return on the ex-split day, larger percentage bid-ask spread after splits, higher volatility after the ex-split day, and split due to price deregulation. Among the evidence supporting the procedure/structure hypothesis, three findings (positive return on the ex-split day, higher volatility after the ex-split day, and split due to price deregulation) also back up the optimal price/tick hypothesis. Additionally, one finding (positive return between the announcement day and the ex-split day) also confirms the signaling hypothesis. Table 3 provides a summary of the above-mentioned issues as well as information about author(s), year of publication, and sample characteristics. [Insert Table 3 about here.] 4.1. Supporting evidence for the procedure/structure hypothesis 4.1.1. Positive return between the announcement day and the ex-split day As the signaling hypothesis posits, a firm’s announcement of a forward split conveys good news to the market, and its stock price responds positively on the announcement day. However, incorporation of the good news seems slow, and a positive abnormal return between the announcement day and the ex-split day is observed. This positive “drift” can be explained by the procedure/structure hypothesis. As Boehme and Danielsen (2007) point out, the abnormal return is primarily confined to the period between the announcement day and the ex-split day, and there is no evidence of any 26 multi-year drift. Thus, the drift pattern between the announcement day and the ex-split day is inconsistent with a behavioral-based under-reaction explanation. More likely, market frictions cause the short-term delay in price response to new information.14 In addition, results show that the price delay is correlated with the positive abnormal return between the announcement day and the ex-split day. 4.1.2. Negative return on the record day Nayar and Rozeff (2001) report a negative abnormal stock return of about 1%, on average, occurring near the record days of stock splits. This negative return is mainly due to the trading inconvenience associated with the record day process, a phenomenon consistent with the procedure/structure hypothesis. According to Nayar and Rozeff (2001), a split event involves all the following days: (1) announcement/declaration day; (2) record day; (3) payment day, (4) the business day after that, ex-split day; (5) the due bill redemption day (three business days after the payment day); and (6) the next business day, the settlement day of the when-issued shares. Figure 1 illustrates the relevant days around a split event. If a trader buys shares before the record day, new shares are sent directly to the trader by the company on the payment day. If a transaction happens after the record day and before the ex-split day, the seller is obligated to remit the new shares, when received, to the buyer (or the broker of the buyer). The due bill provides the legal documentation of this obligation. On the ex-split day, the new stock replaces the un-split stock in trading. The due bill redemption day is the last day by which the new stock must 14 The market friction measure, price delay, is based on Hou and Moskowitz (2005): market frictions impair the speed with which new information is incorporated into the securities’ post-announcement prices, and for most stocks, market frictions are resolved in less than one month. 27 be delivered to the buyer. Therefore, the trading inconvenience arises mainly from a specific procedure: all trading of the old stock between the record day and the ex-split day occurs in un-split shares with attached due bills signed by the seller. Because of the inconvenience, the price of un-split shares usually drops around the record day. [Insert Figure 1 about here.] 4.1.3. Positive return on the ex-split day The ex-split day is the day when the actual split takes place. If the market is efficient, no price effect would be expected to be observed on this day as no revelation of information is associated with this event. However, empirical studies typically show a significantly positive abnormal return on the ex-day of splitting stocks. According to the optimal tick hypothesis, this positive abnormal return is related to the increase in small trades due to the broker promotion argument (see section 2.2.5). In line with the procedure/structure hypothesis, however, the explanations for this positive return are mainly based on the tax effect, the market microstructure effect, and the record-dayinconvenience effect. First, Lamoureux and Poon (1987) offer explanations based on the tax effect. They argue that the lower stock price after a split may attract more investors who prefer capital gain; hence, clientele shifting may occur. Therefore, the positive return on the ex-split day is not a reflection of market valuation. Rather, it is due to the clientele-shifting-related price pressure. Second, Maloney and Mulherin (1992) provide explanations based on the market microstructure effect. They find that the ex-day return is dominated by an asymmetric increase in the ask price compared to the bid. In the 11 trading days after the split execution, trades of splitting stocks tend to congregate at ask 28 prices. The results imply a temporary increase in buy orders around the ex-split day. This order flow imbalance induces an above average number of reported closing prices at the ask, and this phenomenon is responsible for a major fraction of the ex-day abnormal return. In other words, the positive return on the ex-split day is due to the order-flowimbalance-related price pressure, and the source of this pressure resides in the increase in both the shareholder base and the institutional investors. Third, Nayar and Rozeff (2001) give explanations based on the record-day-inconvenience effect. That is, the abnormal positive returns on the ex-split days arise in part from the abnormally low prices of unsplit shares caused by the trading inconvenience around the record days. As their results show, the more negative the return on the record day, the more positive the return on the ex-split day. 4.1.4. Higher percentage bid-ask spread after splits As the stock price declines after forward splits, the relative tick size and the percentage bid-ask spread increase. Thus, the higher percentage spread may simply result from the spread-setting function of market makers. Huang and Weingartner (2000) study the relationship between the bid-ask spread and other trading variables before and after splits. The bid-ask spread is regressed against price, volatility, volume, and the number of trades, and the coefficients before splits are compared with those after splits. Results show that the intercept and slope coefficients are the same before and after splits. Thus, when a firm splits its shares to an optimal price range, market makers regard it as a nonevent and do not change their spread-setting behavior. Since the percentage spread and the price are negatively related, the higher percentage spread simply corresponds to the 29 lower price after splits, based on the same spread-setting function. Thus, the higher percentage spread after splits may only reflect the consistent spread-setting behavior in a lower price environment, rather than worsened liquidity or market quality. 4.1.5. Higher volatility after the ex-split day As noted in Section 2.2.6, the optimal tick hypothesis has already provided some explanations for the higher volatility subsequent to the ex-split day. Here, the procedure/structure hypothesis helps further explain the volatility issue based on a specific feature of splits: when-issued trading. As Angel, Brooks, and Mathew (2004) point out, the higher volatility occurring after the ex-split day follows a period of lower volatility during the when-issued trading preceding the ex-split day. This artificial increase accounts for the unexplained portion of the greater volatility at the ex-split day. When-issued trading takes place over a short period from the record day to the ex-split day, wherein a firm may trade when-issued shares at the post-split price level. The introduction of when-issued (when, as, and if issued) trading provides an opportunity for traders to elect one of two markets for trades: the un-split shares trading at one price level, or the when-issued shares trading at the post-split price level. The introduction of lower priced, when-issued shares attracts small-volume traders and separates the market into two trading sets. When measuring the volatility of shares before the split, volatility is lower for both the un-split shares and the when-issued shares as compared with matching firms that do not trade when-issued shares. After the split, the small-volume traders return to trading in the regular way with a single price level, and the volatility measure increases accordingly. 30 4.1.6. Split due to price deregulation During the 1990s and 2000s, some equity markets such as Switzerland and Japan loosened their regulations on the legal minimum par value for each share of stock. As the market structure changes (i.e., the minimum par value is reduced), firms tend to split their stock shares to get to a new optimal price range and attract small investors. This finding supports both the optimal price hypothesis and the procedure/structure hypothesis. Kunz and Rosa-Majhensek (2008) examine a group of splits in Switzerland occurring within one year after the legal minimum par value reductions in 1992 and 2001. Each sample stock has to have at least one share class at the legal minimum par value before the change in the regulation. The results—no significant post-split abnormal returns observed in either the short or long term for the sample group—show that the splits occurred mainly in reaction to the deregulation in minimum par value rather than to signal future performance. Greenwood (2009) investigates the split bubble caused by deregulations in Japan during the late 1990s and early 2000s.15 Before the deregulations, more than 95% of the splits in Japan were in ratios of 1.3-for-1 or less, and the average split ratio in 1995 was 1.15-for-1. After the deregulations, split ratios greater than or equal to 2-for-1 became more prevalent, and the average split ratio in 2004 was about 10-for-1. Thus, it follows that firms split their shares to return the price to a new optimal level as a response to the change in regulatory requirements. 15 According to Greenwood (2009), two deregulation events made it easier for Japanese firms to split. First, on October 1, 1999, the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) changed the rules governing brokerage commissions, which had been set at fixed rates for small transactions. Following the deregulation, severe price competition among online brokers lowered trading fees by as much as 90%. Second, the law requiring net assets per share to remain above 50,000 Yen was repealed in 2001, allowing firms to split to lower prices. Therefore, in response to the two deregulations, some firms began splitting at higher ratios, with the intention of improving liquidity and attracting small investors. 31 V. Conclusions The literature offers various explanations for stock splits. This paper investigates the three major hypotheses (optimal price/tick, signaling, and procedure/structure) advanced to explain the phenomena surrounding stock splits. Based on our review and analysis of numerous studies published over the past several decades, the optimal price/tick hypothesis and the procedure/structure hypothesis appear largely supported by empirical findings, but research on the signaling hypothesis offers inconclusive results. Theoretical and empirical studies on stock splits provide some insightful guidelines for corporate decision makers, investors, traders, and regulators in the areas of motives for splits, split practices, split effects on firm value, and changes in market activities around splits. The major findings in each area follow. Split incentive. The main motivation for stock splits is to return the share price or the relative tick to an optimal range. In a manner analogous to stocks, a fund or an ADR may also split its shares to return the price to an optimal level. Corporate events, such as M&As and SEOs, may be related to a decision to split, and a split tends to occur before these events in order to adjust the share price. Stock splits may also intend to signal the good news about firms’ future performance, but this view is challenged by some findings on post-split earnings, dividends, stock return, information asymmetry, and short interests. Finally, external factors, such as a change in market regulation, may affect the decision to split at the aggregate level and cause a wave of split events. Split practices. Split practices are related to various split incentives. Findings on frequency of split and split factor back up both the optimal price hypothesis and the 32 signaling hypothesis. That is, a firm’s choices with respect to the number of times it splits its shares and the split factor each time reflect a motivation to return the price to the optimal level and to signal the good news about future performance. Findings on signal credibility support the signaling hypothesis. That is, the cost to a firm, such as the increase in total cash dividends associated with a split, makes the signal credible. Split effects on firm value. A split event influences firm value in several ways. The share price tends to increase upon a split announcement. The investor base tends to become larger after a split, which may help increase firm value. When there is option trading in a stock, however, the price effect of a split announcement is reduced. Changes in market activities around splits. A split event affects various aspects of trading in the market. The bid-ask spread in percentage terms tends to increase, and the depth tends to diminish. Further, return volatility increases on the ex-split day, limit order trading tends to increase after splits, the number of small trades may increase, price clustering may decline, and the profits of market makers may increase. 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Stice, 1997, “The Market Reaction to the Choice of Accounting Method for Stock Splits and Large Stock Dividends,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 32, 161–182. Roll, R., 1984, “A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid-Ask Spread in an Efficient Market,” Journal of Finance 39, 1127–1139. Schultz, P., 2000, “Stock Splits, Tick Size, and Sponsorship,” Journal of Finance 55, 429-450. Sheikh, A.M., 1989, “Stock Splits, Volatility Increases, and Implied Volatilities,” Journal of Finance 44, 1361-1372. Szewczyk, S.H. and G.P. Tsetsekos, 1993, “The Effect of Managerial Ownership on Stock Split-Induced Abnormal Returns,” Financial Review 28, 351-370. Tawatnuntachai, O. and R. D'Mello, 2002, “Intra-Industry Reactions to Stock Split Announcements,” Journal of Financial Research 25, 39-58. Woolridge, R. and D. Chambers, 1983, “Reverse Splits and Shareholder Wealth,” Financial Management 12, 5-15. 38 Table 1. Evidence Related to the Optimal Price/Tick Hypothesis This table presents both supporting and contrary evidence in relation to the optimal price/tick hypothesis, as well as information about author(s), year, and sample. It also provides the section number in the text where the evidence is discussed. Panel A presents the supporting evidence for the optimal price hypothesis; Panel B, the supporting evidence for the optimal tick hypothesis; and Panel C, the contrary evidence for the optimal price/tick hypothesis. Panel A. Supporting evidence for the optimal price hypothesis Evidence Author(s), Year, and Sample Section Stock price variations (The stock price of a firm has its optimal range.) Angel (1997): 2,517 stocks from various countries in January 1994; NYSE stocks during 1924-1994 Dyl and Elliot (2006): CRSP firms during 1976-2001 2.1.1 Price before and after splits (Splitting firms have higher price levels before splits than non-splitting firms, and similar price levels after splits. Thus, splits are to return the prices to normal levels.) Lakonishok and Lev (1987): CRSP firms with splits during 1963-1982, leading to a total of 1,015 splits 2.1.2 Split factor and frequency (Larger split factors and higher split frequencies are to return the deviated prices to the normal range.) Lakonishok and Lev (1987): CRSP firms with splits during 1963-1982, leading to a total of 1,015 splits Huang, Liano, Manakyan, and Pan (2008): CRSP firms with splits during 1967-2000, leading to a total of 3,253 splits 2.1.3 Investor base before and after splits (A firm selects a price range that enlarges the firm’s investor base.) Brennan and Hughes (1991): CRSP and I/B/E/S firms with splits during 19761987 Maloney and Mulherin (1992): CRSP Nasdaq firms with splits during 1985-1989, leading to a total of 446 splits Mukherji, Kim, and Walker (1997): NYSE and AMEX firms with splits during 19841988, leading to 168 splits Dyl and Elliot (2006): CRSP firms with splits during four years following 1976, 1981, 1986, 1991, and 1996 Powell and Baker (1993/1994): CRSP firms with splits during 1982-1989, leading to a total of 527 splits by 481 firms Dennis and Strickland (2003): CRSP firms with splits during 1990-1993 2.1.4 (Continued) 39 Table 1 continued. Panel A. Supporting evidence for the optimal price hypothesis (continued) ADR split (ADRs’ solo-splits in the U.S. are to return the prices to an optimal range.) Muscarella and Vetsuypens (1996): CRSP ADRs with splits during 1962-1993, leading to a total of 143 splits of foreign stocks and/or ADRs 2.1.5 Fund split (Fund splits are to return fund prices to an optimal range and improve liquidity.) Fernando, Krishnamurthy, and Spindt (1999): 194 open-end funds with splits during 1978-1993 Datar and Dubofsky (1999): closed-end funds with splits during 1962-1995 Dennis (2003): the Nasdaq-100 Tracking stock with a 2-for-1 split during 1999-2000 2.1.6 Split before an M&A (Acquiring firms may split their stock shares before M&As to make their stock prices more attractive.) Guo, Liu, and Song (2008): 4,782 acquisitions during 1980-2003 2.1.7 Split before an SEO (Splits before SEOs are to make the stock prices of the equity-issuing firms more attractive.) D’Mello, Tawatnuntachai, and Yaman (2003): 2,190 primary seasoned equity issues during 1980-1995 2.1.8 Panel B. Supporting evidence for the optimal tick hypothesis Relative tick size variations (An optimal range of relative tick size exists for trading a firm’s stock.) Angel (1997): 2,517 stocks from various countries in January 1994 2.2.1 Clustering before and after splits (Price clustering decreases after splits in relation to a bigger relative tick size.) French and Foster (2002): CRSP firms with splits during 1996-1998, leading to a total of 1,590 splits 2.2.2 Limit orders before and after splits (The number of limit orders increases after splits in relation to a bigger relative tick size.) Easley, O’Hara, and Saar (2001): 72 NYSE firms with splits in 1995 2.2.3 Profits to market makers before and after splits (Profits to market makers increase after splits due to a bigger relative tick size.) Schultz (2000): CRSP firms with splits during 1993-1994, leading to a total of 235 splits Gray, Smith, and Whaley (2003): CRSP firms with splits during 1993-1996, leading to a total of 1,109 splits 2.2.4 (Continued) 40 Table 1 continued. Panel B. Supporting evidence for the optimal tick hypothesis (continued) Small investors/trades before and after splits (Brokers tend to promote stocks to small investors after splits due to bigger relative tick size and bigger relative bid-ask spread.) Kadapakkam, Krishnamurthy, and Tse (2005): CRSP NYSE and Nasdaq firms with splits during three periods (1995-1996, 1998-1999, and 2001-2002) Baixauli (2007): Spanish stocks with splits during 1994-2004 2.2.5 Volatility before and after splits (For forward splits, volatility increases subsequent to ex-split days due to bigger relative tick size as well as other factors, and vice verse for reverse splits.) Ohlson and Penman (1985): CRSP NYSE firms with splits during 1962-1981, leading to a total of 1,257 splits Dravid (1987): CRSP firms with splits during 1962-1981 Sheikh (1989): 83 stocks with options that split between 1976 and 1983 Koski (1998): NYSE firms with splits during 1987-1989, leading to a total of 317 splits Kryzanowski and Zhang (1996): stocks splits on Toronto Stock Exchange during 19831989 Koski (2007): CRSP Nasdaq firms with reverse splits during 1993-2002, leading to a total of 758 reverse splits Dubofsky (1991): CRSP NYSE and AMEX firms with splits during 1962-1987, leading to a total of 2,552 splits Lamoureux and Poon (1987): CRSP firms with forward or reverse splits during 19621985, leading to 213 forward splits and 49 reverse splits Chen and Wu (2009): 86 CRSP firms with splits during 1997-1998 2.2.6 (Continued) 41 Table 1 continued. Panel C. Contrary evidence for the optimal price/tick hypothesis Liquidity before and after splits (For the hypothesis: forward and reverse splits restore the price/tick to an optimal range and improve liquidity.) For the hypothesis: Baker and Gallagher (1980): survey study for stock splits in 1978 Baker and Powell (1993): survey study for stock splits in 1987-1990 Muscarella and Vetsuypens (1996): CRSP ADRs with splits during 1962-1993, leading to a total of 143 splits of foreign stocks and/or ADRs Lin, Singh, and Yu (2009): CRSP firms with splits during 1975-2004, leading to a total of 3,721 splits Han (1995): CRSP firms with reverse splits during 1963-1990, leading to a total of 136 firms (Against the hypothesis: liquidity diminishes after splits since the percentage bid-ask spreads become larger, the depth becomes smaller, and the trading volume declines.) Against the hypothesis: Lin, Singh, and Yu (2009): CRSP firms with splits during 1975-2004, leading to a total of 3,721 splits Gray, Smith, and Whaley (2003): CRSP firms with splits during 1993-1996, leading to a total of 1,109 splits Copeland (1979): 25 NYSE firms with splits during 1963-1974 Murray (1985): 118 COMPUSTAT firms with splits during 1972-1977 Lamoureux and Poon (1987): CRSP firms with forward or reverse splits during 19621985, leading to 213 forward splits and 49 reverse splits Lakonishok and Lev (1987): CRSP firms with splits during 1963-1982, leading to a total of 1,015 splits 2.3.1 42 Table 2. Evidence Related to the Signaling Hypothesis This table presents both supporting and contrary evidence in relation to the signaling hypothesis, as well as information about author(s), year, and sample. It also provides the section number in the text where the evidence is discussed. Panel A presents the supporting evidence for the signaling hypothesis; Panel B, the contrary evidence for the signaling hypothesis. Panel A. Supporting evidence for the signaling hypothesis Evidence Author(s), Year, and Sample Section Split announcement effect (A forward split announcement generates a positive abnormal return and signals good news, and vice verse for a reverse split announcement.) Grinblatt, Masulis, and Titman (1984): CRSP firms with splits during 1967-1976, leading to a total of 1,140 splits Brennan and Copeland (1988): 967 stock splits during 1967-1976 Szewczyk and Tsetsekos (1993): 175 stock splits during 1972-1986 Arbel and Swanson (1993): 105 pure split announcements during 1984-1987 Woolridge and Chambers (1983): CRSP NYSE and AMEX firms with reverse splits during 1962-1981 Peterson and Peterson (1992): CRSP firms with reverse splits during 1962-1989, leading to a total of 483 reverse splits 3.1.1 Infrequent split (A split that happens infrequently for a firm may signal good news.) Huang, Liano, Manakyan, and Pan (2008): CRSP firms with splits during 1967-2000, leading to a total of 3,253 splits 3.1.2 Split factor (Split factors reveal information about future performance.) McNichols and Dravid (1990): CRSP NYSE and AMEX firms with splits during 19761983 Conroy and Harris (1999): NYSE firms with splits during 1925-1996; and CRSP NYSE firms with splits during 1963-1996 3.1.3 Credibility of split signal (A split announcement together with a voluntary reduction in retained earnings makes the signal credible.) Grinblatt, Masulis, and Titman (1984): CRSP firms with splits during 1967-1976, leading to a total of 1,140 splits Rankine and Stice (1997): CRSP NYSE firms with splits in 1983, 1985, 1987, and 1989 Bechmann and Raaballe (2007): stock splits in Denmark during 1995-2002 3.1.4 Split of stocks with options (The signaling effect at the split announcement is stronger for stocks without options than for stocks with options.) Chern, Tandon, Yu, and Webb (2008): CRSP stocks with splits and with options during 1976-2004 3.1.5 (Continued) 43 Table 2 continued. Panel B. Contrary evidence for the signaling hypothesis Post-split earnings and dividends (For the hypothesis: forward splits signal good news, and the post-split earnings and dividends increase.) For the hypothesis: Lakonishok and Lev (1987): CRSP firms with splits during 1963-1982, leading to a total of 1,015 splits Pilotte and Manuel (1996): CRSP NYSE and AMEX firms with splits during 19701988, leading to a total of 2,159 splits by 776 firms Tawatnuntachai and D’Mello (2002): CRSP firms with splits during 1986-1995, leading to a total of 327 splits (Against the hypothesis: splits are not useful signals of the post-split dividends and earnings.) Against the hypothesis: Nayak and Prabhala (2001): CRSP firms with splits during 1985-1994, leading to a total of 1,597 splits Huang, Liano, and Pan (2006): CRSP firms with splits during 1963-1998, leading to a total of 6,417 splits Post-split stock return (For the hypothesis: forward splits signal good news, and the post-split abnormal stock return is positive. The opposite is true for reverse splits.) For the hypothesis: Ikenberry, Rankine, and Stice (1996): COMPUSTAT NYSE and ASE firms with splits during 1975-1990, leading to a total of 1,275 two-for-one splits Desai and Jain (1997): CRSP and COMPUSTAT firms with forward or reverse splits during 1976-1991, leading to a total of 5,596 forward splits and 76 reverse splits Ikenberry and Ramnath (2002): I/B/E/S and CRSP firms with splits during 1988-1997, leading to a total of 3,028 splits Kim, Klein, and Rosenfeld (2008): CRSP firms with reverse splits during 1962-2001, leading to a total of 1,612 reverse splits Martell and Webb (2008): CRSP firms with reverse splits during 1972-2003, leading to a total of 1,668 reverse splits (Against the hypothesis: the post-split abnormal return is insignificant.) Against the hypothesis: Byun and Rozeff (2003): CRSP firms with splits during 1927-1996 Boehme and Danielsen (2007): CRSP firms with splits in 2002; CRSP firms with splits during 1950-2000, leading to a total of 6,106 split events Hwang, Keswani, and Shackleton (2008): CRSP firms with splits during 1962-2003 3.2.1 3.2.2 (Continued) 44 Table 2 continued. Panel B. Contrary evidence for the signaling hypothesis (continued) Information asymmetry before and after splits (Against the hypothesis: information asymmetry does not diminish after splits.) Against the hypothesis: Desai, Nimalendran, and Venkataraman (1998): 366 splits announced by 341 CRSP Nasdaq firms during 1983-1990 Easley, O’Hara, and Saar (2001): 72 NYSE firms with splits in 1995 D’Mello, Tawatnuntachai, and Yaman (2003): 2,190 primary seasoned equity issues during 1980-1995 3.2.3 Short interest before and after splits (Against the hypothesis: short interest does not decline after splits.) Against the hypothesis: Kadiyala and Vetsuypens (2002): 296 CRSP NYSE firms with splits during 1990-1994 3.2.4 45 Table 3. Evidence Related to the Procedure/Structure Hypothesis This table presents supporting evidence in relation to the procedure/structure hypothesis, as well as information about author(s), year, and sample. It also provides the section number in the text where the evidence is discussed. Evidence Author(s), Year, and Sample Section Positive return between the announcement & ex-split days** (Market frictions cause the short-term delay in price response.) Boehme and Danielsen (2007): CRSP firms with splits in 2002; CRSP firms with splits during 1950-2000, leading to a total of 6,106 split events 4.1.1 Negative return on the record day (The negative return on the record day is mainly due to the trading inconvenience associated with the record day process.) Nayar and Rozeff (2001): CRSP firms with splits during 1985-1993, leading to 3,336 splits in NYSE/ASE firms and 1,244 splits in Nasdaq firms 4.1.2 Positive return on the ex-split day* (The positive return on the ex-split day is related to the tax effect, the market microstructure effect, and the record-dayinconvenience effect.) Lamoureux and Poon (1987): CRSP firms with forward or reverse splits during 1962-1985, leading to 213 forward splits and 49 reverse splits Maloney and Mulherin (1992): CRSP Nasdaq firms with splits during 19851989, leading to a total of 446 splits Nayar and Rozeff (2001): CRSP firms with splits during 1985-1993, leading to 3,336 splits in NYSE/ASE firms and 1,244 splits in Nasdaq firms 4.1.3 Higher percentage bid-ask spread after splits (The higher percentage bid-ask spread after splits may result from consistent spreadsetting behavior in a lower price environment.) Huang and Weingartner (2000): 179 CRSP NYSE stocks with splits in 1992 4.1.4 Higher volatility after the ex-split day* (The higher volatility after the ex-split day is related to the when-issued trading.) Angel, Brooks, and Mathew (2004): 198 NYSE firms with splits during 19891992 4.1.5 Split due to price deregulation* (Due to deregulation in the minimum par value, firms tend to split their stock shares to get to a new optimal price range.) Kunz and Rosa-Majhensek (2008): 80 stock splits by 64 firms in Switzerland during 1992-2001 Greenwood (2009): 2,094 stock splits in Japan during 1995-2005 4.1.6 *: **: the evidence also supports the optimal price/tick hypothesis. the evidence also supports the signaling hypothesis. 46 Figure 1. Important Days around a Split Event This figure displays two important days around a split event: the announcement day and the ex-split day. In addition, it also presents several other significant days around a split event. About two months Announcement day Ex-split day Record day Payment day 47 Due bill redemption day Settlement day
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