Food Security and Health in the Southern
Highlands of Tanzania:
A Multidisciplinary Approach to Evaluate the Impact
of Climate change and other Stress Factors
Richard Kangalawe
Institute of Resource Assessment,
University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
The 5th Conference on Global Health and Vaccination Research: Environmental Change and Global Health
Tromsø-Norway, 6-8 June 2010
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Introduction
Local perceptions and indicators of climate
change
Environmental change impacts on livelihoods and
food security
Environmental change and human health risks
Approaches in evaluating the local impact of
climate change and other stress factors
Conclusions
The southern highlands of Tanzania
Introduction

Tanzania like many other African countries is vulnerable
to environmental change, particularly climate change
and variability.

Global warming will increase the frequency of extreme
weather events e.g. floods and droughts, and increase
health hazards related to infectious diseases

It may also lead to food crisis resulting from depletion of
water resources, especially where droughts are
concerned.
Introduction

The sectors potentially impacted by climate change and
variability in Tanzania include: agriculture, human
health, forests, water resources, energy, industry
and transport.


The talk highlights on the impacts of environmental
change on food security and human health, with
particular emphasis on the impacts of climate change
and variability in the southern highlands of Tanzania.
In this area agriculture, which is an essential component
of food security, is largely rainfed - subjecting the area
to occasional food shortage in years with extreme
climatic events.
Introduction




Occasional floods destroy infrastructure - affecting food
distribution and access by the affected communities.
Food security and/or insecurity varies spatially and
temporarilly depending on environmental factors (e.g.
rainfall patterns)
Other stress factors (e.g. soil conditions, types of crops
grown, socio-economic factors, access and
infrastructure) also influence food security.
Increasing temperature has increased health risks, e.g.
highland malaria in the southern and other highlands of
Tanzania.
Local perceptions of climate change in the
southern highlands of Tanzania






Climate - as rainfall, temperature, drought, floods, wind
and humidity.
Rainfall locally perceived to have been inconsistent and
unpredictable over years.
The variability is associated with increased seasonality
of rainfall which affects their agricultural calendar.
Decreased amounts of rainfall and disappearance of
short rains that used to be received around September
(Mbozi & Rungwe)
Fluctuations in the onset of long rains.
Most people acknowledge that temperature has
increased over last 10 to 30 years
Local perceptions of climate change
Local understanding of
climate
Chunya
Mbeya Mbozi Rungwe
Average
Climate as rainfall
100
89.5
50
95.2
83.7
Climate as temperature
100
89.5
50
95.2
83.7
Outbreak of human
diseases
64.3
42.1
100
61.9
67.1
Climate as drought
78.6
52.6
50
61.9
60.8
Climate as floods
78.6
42.1
50
42.9
53.4
Climate as wind
92.9
36.8
0
61.9
47.9
Climate as humidity
(dryness of the air)
64.3
26.3
0
66.7
39.3
Temperature records for Mbeya Met. Station
Percent responses on local indicators of climate change
Indicator of climate change
Chunya
Mbeya
Mbozi
Rungwe
Total
Increasing temperatures
85.7
89.5
100
85.7
90.2
Shortened growing seasons
85.7
78.9
100
95.2
90.0
Rainfall coming late in the seasons
78.6
73.7
100
66.7
79.8
Recurrent food shortage
85.7
63.2
100
52.4
75.3
Rainfall coming too early
71.4
47.4
100
66.7
71.4
Increased incidences of drought
100
63.2
50
66.7
70.0
Outbreak of other human diseases
64.3
42.1
100
61.9
67.1
Outbreak of malaria
50.0
26.3
100
38.1
53.6
Increased rainfall amounts
71.4
36.8
50
47.6
51.5
Decreasing crop productivity
71.4
26.3
50
33.3
45.3
Increasing crop productivity
78.6
52.6
0
38.1
42.3
Decrease in number of livestock kept
50.0
31.6
0
33.3
28.7
Outbreak of livestock diseases
50.0
26.3
0
33.3
27.4
Outbreak of plant diseases
42.9
5.3
0
33.3
20.4
Local indicators of the perceived changing
climate

Some local indicators of climate change may be difficult to
ascertain because of the complementarities that exist
between climate phenomena and other stress factors.

For instance, crop productivity may be a function of several
factors, e.g. climatic, soil factors and agronomic practices.

It may therefore be difficult to isolate the impact of climate
change.

However, local communities recognise the relationship
between climate change and agricultural production, food
security & health.
Environmental change impacts on livelihoods
and food security in the southern highlands of
Tanzania: Decline in agricultural productivity

Livelihoods of the majority (80%) of people living in rural
areas of Tanzania depend on agriculture (crops and livestock)
and other natural resources.

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change/variability, which
could in many parts of the country aggravate falling harvests,
resulting in food shortages.

Climate change is expected to shrink the rangelands which
are particularly important for the livelihoods of livestock
keeping communities.
Impact of climate change on agriculture
and food security

Droughts have become more
frequent and rainfall patterns have
become erratic and less
predictable leading to poor
harvests

Water in rivers, ground and
surface reservoirs is decreasing
leading to increased vulnerability
of irrigation systems
Impact of climate change on agriculture
and food security





Reduced soil moisture storage capacity, soil quality and
fertility with higher temperatures
Areas suffering from large decreases in rainfall will also
experience reduced yields
Reduced crop yields from rain-fed agriculture
Reduced length of growing seasons
Increased proliferation of pests and diseases due to higher
temperatures and rainfall:


Need for more agrochemicals and disease resistant
crop varieties
Reduced agricultural productivity and increased
production cost
Impact of climate change on agriculture and
food security




Temperature increases make it difficult to grow
some crops which are already close to their
temperature limits
Reduced yields have obvious consequences on
food security
Shortage of food lead to under nutrition and
malnutrition leading to poor health and high
mortality.
Food security also affected by climate change
related price increase.
Impact of climate change on agriculture
and food security




The locally perceived causes of food shortages included
drought, floods, strong winds and excessive rainfall, all
being influenced by environmental change.
Increased rainfall could lead to nutrient leaching, loss of
topsoil and water logging, thereby affecting agricultural
production.
Destruction of infrastructure, such as roads and
railways, hampering crop and livestock haulage from
main production to consumption areas.
This may cause sharp consumer price increases
limiting food access of poor market dependent
consumers. This may have considerable impacts on the
food security situation.
Elements of health affected by
climate change
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Food (under-nutrition and malnutrition)
Safe drinking water (quantity and quality)
Hazards (Storms, heat-waves, floods, land-slides)
Food-borne diseases
Water-borne diseases
Vector-borne diseases
Air-borne diseases
Environmental change and human health
risks in the southern highlands of Tanzania

Increasing temperature has caused human health impacts,
e.g. increasing malaria in the highlands.

Previously malaria-free highland areas now experience
incursions of malaria

As malaria transmission increases in the highlands, the
likelihood of epidemics may increase due to the lack of
protective genetic modifications in the newly affected
populations.

The social and economic costs of malaria are also huge and
include costs to individuals, households, community and
national level.
Environmental change and human health
risks in the southern highlands of Tanzania

Diarrhoeal diseases were also reported to be most prevalent
during the rainy season, mainly between October and May.

Respiratory diseases were reported to be most prevalent
during the cooler months, especially from June to September.

Climate change/variability may also interact with other
stresses and additional vulnerabilities such as HIV/AIDS,
resulting in increased susceptibility and risk of other
infectious diseases (e.g. cholera) and malnutrition.

Loss of labour
Environmental change and human health risks
in the southern highlands of Tanzania

Both outpatients and
inpatients have generally
increased especially since
the early 1990s.
OPD
IPD
Deaths
7000
malaria at Igogwe DDH
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1975
1973
1971
0
1969
Long term data on malaria
cases found at Igogwe
Hospital in Rungwe
district attests that malaria
has steadily increased
since the 1960s.
8000
Reported Cases and deaths due to

Records from health
facilities in Mbeya region
confirm increasing malaria
trends
Year
Ilembo
Ifisi DDH
8000
Number of Patients (IPD)

7000
Inyala HC
Rungwe DH
Ikuti HC
Igogwe DDH
Mbuyuni HC
Chunya DH
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
Mwambani DDH
Vwawa DH
Mbozi DDH
1000
0
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Year
Environmental change and human health risks
in the southern highlands of Tanzania
The peaks in number
of malaria cases
coincide with climatic
events such as El
Nino, and warmer
temperatures.
250
Deaths due to malaria

Ilembo
200
Ifisi DDH
Inyala HC
150
Rungwe DH
Ikuti HC
100
Igogwe DDH
Mbuyuni HC
Chunya DH
Mwambani DDH
50
Vwawa DH

The number of deaths
between 1994 and
2007 also showed a
generally increasing
trend
Mbozi DDH
0
19
94 9 95 9 96 9 97 9 98 99 9 00 0 0 01 0 02 00 3 00 4 00 5 00 6 00 7
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Year
Environmental change and health risks –
Livestock

Climate change is expected to affect both pathogen and
vector habitat suitability through changes in moisture and
temperature, e.g. trypanosomiasis & tsetse fly

Rift Valley Fever epidemics – closely associated with El Nino
events in East Africa, and could increase with a higher
frequency of El Nino events.

What about other livestock diseases? More research needed.

Heat stress and drought are likely to have further negative
impacts on animal health and production of dairy products.
Some local adaptations with malaria
Chunya
Mbeya
Rural
50.0
73.8
33.3
33.3
47.6
Using ITN (Bed nets)
37.5
8.7
33.3
18.6
24.5
Community education on preventive
measures
12.5
13.0
33.3
14.8
18.4
Buying medication from shops
0.0
4.4
0.0
11.1
3.9
Environmental cleanliness (including
draining
stagnant
waters,
bush
clearing)
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.1
2.8
Sponging patient
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.4
1.8
Boiled drinking water
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.7
0.9
Total
100
100
100
100
100
How do you tackle Malaria
Treatment
centre/facility
at
hospital/health
Mbozi Rungwe
Total
Multidisciplinary approach to evaluate the
impact of climate change and other stress
factors

A stress factor - any factor or combination of factors; be it
environmental, socio-economical, health related or political,
that have negative impacts on the natural resource base
and community livelihoods.

The climatic and non-climatic stress factors tend to
compound the impacts of each other.

An already stressed socio-economic environment become
more vulnerable to environmental change (e.g. climate
change/variability) compared to a less stressed environment
under the same level of exposure to risks.
Other stress factors - causing of food
insecurity





Land use changes - the land previously used to grow food
crops has increasingly been taken for commercial crops like
tea (and bananas) production.
The increasing replacement of farmlands for food crops by
more commercial non-food crops like tea may negatively
impact on food security in the long run.
Other significant causes included crop diseases, crop pests,
low soil fertility, lack of labour, weeds, lack of agricultural
inputs, small farm sizes, destructive birds and use of low
yielding local varieties.
Land scarcity has led to decreasing farm size per household
These are among the non-climatic stressors impacting on
local food security in the area.
Other stress factors - health related

Mobility




It was noted in some villages, such as Ilembo that
although there are still no mosquitoes in that area
because of the very cold climate, there are many clinical
malaria cases.
Those who get malaria are bitten by mosquitoes when
they travel outside the village
This shows that apart from climate change mobility could
be a compounding stress factor for the prevalence of
malaria in some areas.
Low incomes – limited adaptive capacity (e.g. access
to medical treatment).
Table: Examples of non-climatic stress factors in Mbozi District
Rank
Ntugwa Village
Nyimbili Village
1
Health related factors (HIV/AIDS
infections; malaria)
Health related factors (HIV/AIDS
infections; malaria)
2
Crop and livestock diseases/pests
Declining soil fertility
3
Shortage of agricultural inputs
Shortage of agricultural inputs
4
Shortage of experts
Poor road infrastructure
5
Water management problem in
farmlands
Low prices of agricultural produce
6
Declining soil fertility
Inadequate livestock facilities
7
Crimes e.g. stealing food stuffs in fields
Youth out migration
8
Water logging during the rainy seasons
Lack of capital
9
Poor roads and other transport
infrastructure
Lack of clean and safe water
Using multidisciplinary approaches in the
assessment of impacts of climate change
and other stress factors

Thorough understanding of the impacts of climate change
and other stress factors related to food security and
human health may need a multidisciplinary approach.

Field experiences has shown that for establishing
overviews on patterns & impacts of climate change/
variability participatory approaches can be applied, e.g.
brainstorming, timelines and key informant interviews.
Using multidisciplinary approaches in the
assessment of impacts of climate change and
other stress factors

For establishing the magnitude and
impacts of various stress factors at
community level matrix scoring can
be used successfully. It raises the
participants enthusiasm.

Wealth ranking is helpful in social
stratification (based on endowment
of livelihood assets) - facilitates
understanding of adaptive capacities
and vulnerability to environmental
change and other stress factors.
Using multidisciplinary approaches in the
assessment of impacts of climate change and
other stress factors

However, for more quantitative analysis and projections,
the participatory tools need to be complemented by the
traditional ones like household surveys and modelling.
Conclusions

The southern highlands of Tanzania are like many other parts
of the country vulnerable to environmental change,
particularly climate change.

Agricultural production, which is an essential component of
food security, is largely rain-fed, subjecting the area to
occasional food shortage in years with extreme climatic
events.

Increased health risks due to environmental change impact
on the population, including reduction of the labour force in
agricultural production – consequently affecting food security.
Conclusions

While food production varies spatially depending on rainfall
patterns, other stress factors such as soil conditions, socioeconomic, cultural factors, and infrastructure. These stress
factors have often influenced availability and access to food
items.

Climatic and non-climatic stress factors tend to compound
the impacts of each other


An already stressed socio-economic environment become more
vulnerable to environmental change like climate change/variability
compared to a less stressed environment under the same level of
exposure to risks.
More detailed studies are needed to establish adaptation
options to the negative impacts of climate change in the
food security and health sectors.
Acknowledgement

This presentation was supported the Research
Council of Norway
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