Rethinkingdisaster-inducedcollapse in the demise of the Andean highland states: Wariand Tiwanaku PatrickRyanWilliams Abstract The role ofdroughtin thecollapse oftheancientstatesoftheAndean Middle Horizonhas received a greatdeal of attentionin recentyears.The onlyAndean valleywherebothprincipalstatesof this timeperiod,Wariand Tiwanaku,had establishedsettlements is in Moquegua, Peru.Based on a GIS networkanalysisof ancientirrigationsystemsand detailedpalaeoclimaticdata, I assess the assertionthata centuries-long droughtcaused the collapse of statecolonies in thisvalleycircaAD 1000. I conclude thatthe onset of the droughtsignificantly postdatedcollapse and suggestthatfactions of Tiwanakusocial groupswho allied themselveswithWarisettlersupsettheecologicalbalance of water use in the valley priorto the end of the firstmillenniumAD. The increase in agricultural caused by the fissioningof activityin the upper sierrain conjunctionwiththe politicalinstability forthe Tiwanaku Tiwanaku politicalpower in the valleycreatedan environment of vulnerability statecolonies.It was thecomplexinteractionofsocial and ecologicalfactorsthatled to thecollapse of thelargestwesterncolonyof theTiwanakustate.The Wariimperialcolonyplayeda pivotalrole in thiscollapse byestablishingan administrative centerin theuppervalleythatdrewawayresources fromtheTiwanakustatebelow. Ironically,thepoliticalinstability caused by theTiwanakucolonial collapse mayhave been instrumental in the downfallof theWaricolonyas well. Keywords Irrigation agriculture; drought; Peru; landscape ecology; GIS network analysis; Wari; Tiwanaku. Introduction The relationshipbetween disaster-inducedsociopoliticalcollapse and social evolution has a long historyin archaeology.In the Andes, one of the majorworldregionsin which thepristinestatedeveloped,environmental explanationshave dominatedthe discussion of state collapse and long-termsocial evolutionin recentyears. The Andean Middle Horizon (c. AD 600-1000) providesan excellentopportunity to assess models of disaster and collapse. The inceptionof the Middle Horizon has been linked to a long drought 1) i Routledge Taylor&FracisGraup (C WorldArchaeology Vol. 33(3): 361-374 AncientEcodisasters 2002 Taylor& FrancisLtd ISSN 0043-8243print/1470-1375 online DOI: 10.1080/00438240120107422 This content downloaded from 129.252.86.83 on Fri, 14 Mar 2014 00:37:59 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 362 PatrickRyanWilliams fromAD 562 to 594 (Shimada et al. 1991) and Moseley (1992) arguesthatthe expansion of the empireof Wari was tied to its successfuleconomic adaptationto this drought. Kolata and colleagues (Ortloffand Kolata 1993) maintainthatthe collapse ofTiwanaku in the Bolivian altiplano,the othergreathighlandstate,was caused by a centuries-long droughtbeginningaround AD 1100. Many of the catastrophicexplanationstherefore involvethe two predominantMiddle Horizon highlandcultures,Wariand Tiwanaku. betweenthese two politieswas in the Moquegua Valleyof The onlycommonfrontier southernPeru (Fig. 1). Here theyestablishedimperialcolonieswithinsightof each other thatcoexistedforsome 400 years.This small valleyis thereforethe ideal place to view I evalubetweenthemand assess theirriseand collapse.In thefollowing, theinteractions ate the impactof droughton social interactionsbetween them,and on theireventual was theeconomicmainstayin thedry,ruggedsouth-central collapse.Irrigationagriculture reflectthe economic Andean sierra,and I argue thatchangesin irrigationinfrastructure impactsof watershortages. Tiwanakucolonizationin theseventhcenturyAD The midvalleyzone (1000-1500 metersabove sea level) of the Moquegua valley was intenselypopulatedin the FormativePeriod,immediatelypriorto the Middle Horizon. There was however littlesociopoliticalintegrationand no settlementhierarchy;the on the low foothillsnextto the inhabitantsfarmedthevalleyfloodplainfromsettlements rivers(Goldstein2000). At the beginningof the Middle Horizon,c. AD 600, the firstTiwanaku colonies were establishedin Moquegua. Representedby TiwanakuIV styleceramics,theyrepresenta majorchangein thepoliticalcontrolof the valley.The site of Omo (Fig. 1) is a principal GoldsteincharacterizestheinitialTiwanakuoccupationin focusofTiwanakusettlement. the Omo phase as an intrusiveimperialcolony.Importedceramicsin utilitariancontexts suggestthatthe populationwas ethnicallyTiwanaku,not local people subjugatedby the altiplano polity.House formsresemble those of the altiplano,not the local cultural traditions(Goldstein1989). In the Tiwanaku heartland,the natureof Tiwanaku controlhas been documentedat form, thesiteofLukurmatabyBermann(1993). A specialpurposedomesticarchitectural withan probablydesignedforstorage,appears in the seventhcenturyAD contemporary increasein Tiwanakuprestigeitems.This could denotecoercedproductionforexport.At Omo duringthe initialTiwanaku phase, individualhousingcomplexesare organizedin Goldstein(1989) suggests plaza communitiesthatdo not containany storagestructures. and thatthe lack of thatthisindicatesthepresenceof a supra-householdstoragefacility, craftspecializationindicatesthat the primarypurpose of the colony was agricultural productionforexport- especiallyformaize whichcould not be grownin the Tiwanaku heartland.Kolata (1994) argues thatat Tiwanaku fromc. AD 500, agriculturalsystems wereconstructed usingstatecontroloflocal elites.Whiletheselocal elitesmayhave been fairlyautonomous,theywere constrainedand motivatedby the needs and demandsof reconstructions suggestthattheagricultural thestateelitein thecapital.These convergent coloniesof Moquegua providedthestatewithexoticstapleproductsnotobtainablein the This content downloaded from 129.252.86.83 on Fri, 14 Mar 2014 00:37:59 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions collapse 363 disaster-induced Rethinking 3000 N 4000 .... 3500 N~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - -50 p500:at1 + 20 kilometers yt%- ft Baul 2000,*Cerr6 ~~~~1 2000 4 S ~I g 2500 3000 3500 henChen *Omo 2000 .1500 1000 500 49 ~~~~~Ecuador I \ Iif0H 1000 Peru5 B~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ra '\iracochapampa Honco Pamia El Algodonal Huari Pikillacta 0 y Pacific Ocean CerroBaul 500 PacificOcean Tiwanaku contourlinesinmeters above sea level Figure1 Location of the Wari-Tiwanakuinteractionin the Moquegua Valley,Peru. altiplanoheartland.The statehad a vested interestin the continuanceof productionof theMoquegua colony,althoughday-to-daydecisionsweremostlikelyleftto thecolonists. Regardingvulnerabilityto disaster,some factorsmighthave hinderedan effective responseby the Omo colony.The colonistswere highlydependenton extra-localpower This content downloaded from 129.252.86.83 on Fri, 14 Mar 2014 00:37:59 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 364 PatrickRyan Williams structures predicatedon wealthobjectsfromtheTiwanakuheartland.Statusdifferentiation at Omo is distinguishedby preferentialaccess to itemssuch as importedredware ceramicsand warp face polychromestripedtextiles(Goldstein 1989). The large-scale presenceof thesebulkystatusgoods suggestsa well-developedcaravansystem- a form ofcommunication network(ibid.). Yet thiswas designedto move goods,notinformation. CommunicationbetweenMoquegua and thealtiplanoheartlandwouldhave takenabout a week,whichwould prohibiteffective disasterresponsegiventhe degreeof interdependence betweencenterand periphery. - the hydraulic In additionto these social factors,the Omo economic infrastructure organizationof agriculture- is also prone to collapse whenfacedwithwatershortage.I It was focusedon middlevalley floodplain now examine thateconomic infrastructure. farming.There was no greatinvestmentin extensiveterracesystemslike those of the upper portionof the valley,nor do the canals cross extremelysteep and ruggedterrain forgreatdistances.The technologicalaspects of irrigationare not verycomplex.Given the very differenthydrologicalregimes of the altiplano and the western valleys, Tiwanaku hydraulictechnologieswould not be applicable to the environmentof the Omo colony. The Omo agrarianenvironment could cope withminortectonicactivity.Adjustingto changesin surficial topographydoes notrequiregreatamountsofhumanlabor.Likewise, while extremefloodeventscould destroycanal intakesand inundatefields,recoveryof fromthissort of event could be accomplishedrather the Omo agrarianinfrastructure losses mightbe intense,butwould be limitedto months, quickly.Short-term productivity ratherthanyears. vulnerableto drought. valleybottomsystemswereparticularly However,thelow-lying Upvalleyagrariansystems,evaporationand seepage willall diminishthe available water. When rainfalldecreases and upvalleyfieldsneverthelesscontinueto produce at predroughtlevels,lowervalleyfieldswill sufferthe entireeffectsof watershortages.Since the Omo fieldsare closerto the lowerend of the hydraulicsystem,theyare moreprone area relyon mechanto watershortages.Modernfarmersin mostoftheOmo agricultural water for their fields ical pumpingfromsubterraneanaquifers to provide sufficient (Moquegua Ministryof Agriculture1983) - a technologynot available to the prehistoric inhabitants. to certainnatural to crisisand technologicalvulnerability Thus,bothsocialvulnerability hazards would have plagued the Omo colonistsof Moquegua. As discussedabove, this wouldbe especiallypronouncedshouldupstreamagricultural systemsbegin vulnerability to use morewaterat a timewhen highlandrainfallwas decreasing.This is exactlywhat happenedin the seventhcenturyAD, withthe intrusionof theWaricolony. The riseof theWaricolonyin theseventhand eighthcenturiesAD The Wariexpansionled to theintroduction of a new agricultural technologyof profound in thehighsierra.Although importanceto manypartsof theAndes: terracedagriculture terraceswere utilized centuriesearlier in the Early Horizon, as evidenced at Chavin (Burger1992),in manyregionsof thePeruvianAndes,especiallythedesertsouth,it was This content downloaded from 129.252.86.83 on Fri, 14 Mar 2014 00:37:59 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Rethinking disaster-induced collapse 365 Wari's expansionwhichfirstopened the highsierrato agriculture.In Moquegua, there was littleor no occupationof the highsierrauntiltheWariintrusion(Owen 1994). The WariexpansionaroundAD 600 occurredafterthirty yearsof 20-30 per centbelow normalprecipitation(Shimada et al. 1991). High sierrafarmingradicallyimprovedthe efficient use of waterby decreasingthe amountof waterlost to evaporationand seepage in transportfromthe rainfallareas. In Moquegua, I estimatethatthe Wari canals could irrigate2.5 timesthe area per volume irrigatedby the Tiwanaku systems,due to their closer proximityto the highlandrains above 3500 masl and the use of stone masonry terracing.That is, Wari agriculturewas more thantwiceas efficient in the use of water. Since therewas littlepre-Warioccupationofthehighsierra(Owen 1994),Wariwas apparently not tryingto incorporatea local population; rather,the Wari settlementin Moquegua was a colony,designedperhapsforpoliticalor defensivepurposes,but witha strongagriculturalfoundationto supportthe colonial infrastructure. The Wari occupationof Moquegua was centeredon the Torata valley,one of the high sierratributariesof the Moquegua River. Recent fieldworkin the area has documented six architectural sitesand a canal systemconnectingthemall (Moseley et al. 1991a; Owen 1994;Williams1997). The Warisettlementis centeredat CerroBauil,an impressivemesa withsheer sided cliffs.Excavationsindicatethatthiscolonial capitalwas an administrative/ceremonial site witha relativelylong occupation (Fig. 2). Calibrated radiocarbon datesfromthesitespan theperiodAD 620-1120,placingCerroBauil'soccupationcontemporarywiththe entireTiwanaku occupationof the middlevalley(Williams2001). Excavationson CerroBaul have revealedTiwanakuand Wari-Tiwanakuhybridceramicforms, Year AD (calibrated2 sigma) ~ 4 0 Wani (Cerro BaaI) Tiwanaku TChenChen El Algodonal Algodol Omo) Omo) Z Figure2 ComparisonofWariand Tiwanaku calibrated radiocarbon dates from indicates 95 per cent Moquegua. Shading confidencerange of occupationbased on all dates foreach group.(AfterGoldstein1989; Moseley et al. 1991; Owen 1993; Williams 2001.) This content downloaded from 129.252.86.83 on Fri, 14 Mar 2014 00:37:59 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 366 PatrickRyanWilliams suggestingsome interactionbetweenthe two polities(Moseley et al. 1991a; Williamset al. 2000). The otherWarisitesare on the 13 km Waricanal upstreamand downstreamof Cerro site suggestinga possible administrative differentiated, Bauil.They are all architecturally terrace hierarchy(Nash 1996). Associatedwiththecanal are severalremnantagricultural do not appear to reflect groups,whichare highlyeroded in some areas and superficially However,thereare severallines of evidencesuggesting the workof a centralauthority. workswere muchmoreextensivethantheynow appear. thatWariagricultural First,these scatteredagriculturalworkscould not have supportedthe populationsof the Waricolony.The ratiosof settlementhabitationarea to cultivationarea forseveral contemporary'subsistence'economies in the Moquegua sierrasupportthis argument. These rangefrom1:600to 1:1000,withan averageof 1:750.The CerroBautlcolony,being partof an expansivestate,shouldhave had needs at least as greatas these,yetthe ratio ofWarihabitationareas to thescatteredterraceremnantsis only1:100.This suggeststhat theremusthave been at least six timesas muchirrigableland as theremnanttracesindicate (Williams1997). Second, a hydraulicanalysisof the principalWari canal supportsthishypothesis.A trenchexcavatedthroughthiscanal at the site of El Paso indicatesthatthe canal had a maximumdischargeof 400 litersper second at thispoint.A canal of thissize could irrigate an area in excessof65 hectares(Williams1997). The terraceremnantsbelow El Paso measureonly25 hectares,and so the area actuallyirrigatedwas probablymuchgreater thancan be seen on the surfacetoday. Finally,it is probable thatsome of the moderncanals in the Torata Valleywere originallybuiltbyWari,especiallythoseon theriver'ssouth-eastbanks.One ofthemainWari sites,CerroPetroglifois locatedwithin200 metersof a modernToratavalleycanal (Nash 1996). I thereforesuggestthatWari land use includedall modernirrigatedlands in the and theterraceremnantsassociatedwiththeWaricanal. Thisis problowerToratadistrict ably a conservativeyetaccurateestimateof the actual land use in Waritimes. lowerdownthevalleyis debated. The impactofthisWariintrusionon Omo settlements One hypothesisholdsthattheWariintrusiondroveTiwanakufromthevalley(Goldstein But anotherhypothesisargues fora 1989), suggestinga violentmilitaryconfrontation. stresscaused by Wari declinein Tiwanaku agriculturein Moquegua due to productivity in the upperdrainage. hydraulicinvestment land use during This hypothesisis testedbyanalysingwateravailabilityand agricultural the establishedWari occupationafter640 AD, when therewas a decade-longdrought (Shimada et al. 1991). Wariagriinvolvingan average25 percentdecreaseinprecipitation culturalfieldswould need a minimumof 25 millioncubic metersof annual dischargeto fields,whichrepresents10 percentofthewaterneeded to irrigate supporttheirirrigation Omo fields.Thus, the openingof the highsierrato agricultureby the Wari empirein conjunctionwiththe decade-longdroughtwould have reduced the water available to production Omo fieldsby over35 per cent.This would have decimatedOmo agricultural in the middlevalley. is a conquest by hydraulicsuperiThe Wari investmentin agriculturalinfrastructure ority,accomplishedthrougheconomicratherthan militarymeans.The hydraulicmodel providesa plausible,even convincinginsightinto relationsbetweenthe Tiwanaku and This content downloaded from 129.252.86.83 on Fri, 14 Mar 2014 00:37:59 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Rethinking disaster-induced collapse 367 Warigroupsin the valley.It suggestsan escalatingconflictover waterrightstowardsthe end of the seventhcenturyas waterscarcitybecame morepronounced. Two disastersthus converged: a drought-induceddecline in productivityand the usurpationof waterrightsby a powerfulintruder.They mayhave affectedthe natureof Tiwanaku Omo controlin the region. Centralizeddecision makingby, and economic to thefailureoftraditional dependenceon,theTiwanakucore area mayhave contributed authorityto legitimizeeffectiveresponseto the disaster.The psychologicalimpactof a competingempireestablishingitselfon a highlydefensibleand rituallychargedmountain peak, co-optinglocal sources of water and spiritualpower,may also have constrained effectiveresponse. The impact of the convergentdisasters drasticallyaltered the Moqueguan politicaland economiclandscape. The politicaland economicpower focus shiftedfromthe middle to the upper valley duringthe early eighthcenturyAD. Later effectsofthetenserelationsare evidentin thereorganization ofprovincialadministration in the succeedingTiwanakuphase. The maturecoloniesof theninthcenturyAD Late Middle Horizon Tiwanakusettlementis characterizedby a politico-religious center at Omo, and a demographic-economic centerat Chen Chen (Fig. 1). In termsof adaptive responseto the Wariintrusion, the politico-religious centerattemptedto solidifycontrol ofthevalleythroughideologicalmeans,alongwiththeestablishment ofmorepopulation centersand investmentin agrarianinfrastructure. At Omo, provincialadministrators constructeda ceremonialcomplexbased on theAkapana templeat Tiwanaku.It mirrored the three-tieredplatformof altiplano temple centers,and is the only such complex constructedoutsidetheTiticacaBasin (Goldstein1993). The symbolicsignificance relates to theforward-facing deityon theGatewayoftheSun,arguablythemostimportant figure in the Tiwanaku pantheon.This figurestandsupon a three-tiered platformflankedby side-profile attendants(Goldstein1993); we can thusarguethatthethree-tiered platform was a portrayalof power structures, relatinghumansto gods and reinforcing the social hierarchyas an extensionof the earthlyand supernaturalworldorder. This incorporationof Moquegua as an administeredprovinceduringthe TiwanakuV period may be a reflectionof a largerreorganizationof the Tiwanaku state at thistime (Browman 1981). This may have involvedregionalcentralizationof administration to Tiwanaku itself,reflectedby a declinein the domesticand ritualcomplexat Lukurmata and a corresponding increasein centralizedcontrolofproductionand ritualat thecapital (Bermann 1993). This is also evidentin changesin settlementhierarchyand agricultural productionin the TiwanakuValleyregionat thistime(Albarracin-Jordan and Mathews 1990). The establishment of Omo as a provincialadministrative centeris in starkcontrastto thiscentralizing process.It maypartiallybe explainedbyitsdistancefromthecapitaland theneed to incorporateMoqueguan inhabitantsmoredirectlyintotheritualsofthestate. The evidence seems to indicatethe developmentof a hierarchywithinMoquegua and perhapsless centralizedcontrolof the Moquegua householdby the stateadministrators in thealtiplano.However,investigations at Omo's Chen Chen stylesiteof M1O arguefor This content downloaded from 129.252.86.83 on Fri, 14 Mar 2014 00:37:59 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 368 PatrickRyanWilliams the integrationof householdsinto the state economy,withregardto both staples and wealthitems(see D'Altroy and Earle 1985). The frequencyof redwareceramics,most likelyimportedfromthe altiplano,surpassedthefinewarefrequenciesfromearlierphase excavations(Goldstein 1989). Both finelycraftedand coarse utilitariantextileswere in the altiplanomayhave been recoveredfromOmo M10, and theirlikelymanufacture ofMoquegua intothestateeconomy.Staplessuch to theintegration even moreimportant as llama and chuio, a freeze-driedpotato whichcan be produced onlyin the cold altiplano, were foundin domesticcontexts(Goldstein 1989), indicatingthat such staples movedbetweenTiwanakuand herprovincialdaughter. The strongestevidenceforstapleinterdependencebetweencore and peripheryis that whichindicatesmaize productionforexport.New varietiesof maize witha largercob were introduced,suggestingselectionforincreasedproduction.The manytaclla (stone hoes) and batanes (groundstone implementsused in mass producingmaize) foundin domesticcontextsat Omo M10 also indicateagriculturegeared towardsurplusproduction (Goldstein 1989). Recent evidence fromChen Chen compellinglysuggeststhat massive storage facilitieswere constructedat this time (Bandy et al. 1996). Surplus productionfor extra-localexchange,the expansion of the agrarianlandscape and the in the all argueforstateinvestment increasein associatedChen Chen Phase settlements formaize productionand export.The developgearedspecifically agrarianinfrastructure mentof a site size hierarchyalso arguesforincorporationof the valleyas an integrated economicprovinceof theTiwanakustateat thistime(McAndrews1995). This increase in sites occurredthroughoutthe middle valley,but the greatestpopulation focus and agrarianinvestmentwas in the upper portionof the middlevalley at so the area is importantforthe Chen Chen. Here the rivervalleynarrowssignificantly, controlof water. This upvalley movementof agriculturallands constructedfor state productionwas adaptive in mitigatingthe effectsof water availabilityon agricultural production. Meanwhile,theWaricolonyin thehighsierracontinuedto thrive.The increasein rainfallin the eighthand ninthcenturiesAD providedenoughwater,so droughtswould not have curtailedTiwanaku agrarianexpansiondespite the Wari success. In fact,thereis some evidencethatWariand Tiwanakuinteractionhad become moreextensive,suggestingrelationsmayeven have been amicable (Williamset al. 2000). took place at the I have elsewhere argued that a major institutionalrestructuring colonial capital Cerro Bauilin the late ninthcenturyAD (Williams2001). This does not appear to resultfroma naturalcatastrophe,but probablyrepresentsa reorganizationof each between theWaricolonialpresence.Severallargeplaza complexeswereconstructed, was at its largestaround 500 and 1000 square meters.Earlier monumentalarchitecture theassociatedbuildingscontainno evidencefordomes100 square meters.Furthermore, tic activities,such as food preparationand consumption,householdcraftproductionor is thatthese are buildingsin whichthe colonial goversleepingareas. My interpretation officesand receptionhalls,butwere not residential.This norsmaintainedadministrative transformedthe nature of interactionsbetween elite governors,their reconstruction subjectsand outsidegroups. may be a reactionto the consolidationof Tiwanaku settlementsin This restructuring in thisdynamicsocial environment, few decades earlier.Nevertheless, a middle the valley This content downloaded from 129.252.86.83 on Fri, 14 Mar 2014 00:37:59 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Rethinking disaster-induced collapse 369 thestatusquo was neverpreservedforlong,and thereis ampleevidenceforrapidchanges in the latterstagesof the tenthcenturyAD, despitethe factthatrainfallremainedabove normal,and would not decrease forat least another100 years. and collapse in thetenthcenturyAD Tiwanakufactionalization The collapse of theTiwanakustatehas been attributedto a numberof causes. Especially in provincialareas such as Moquegua, none of these mechanismsis well understood. Kolata (1994) arguesfora pan-Andeandroughtin the eleventhcenturyAD. Othershave arguedforan independentcollapse of theTiwanakuadministrative The siteof hierarchy. Chen Chen is an ideal location in whichto studyagriculturaldevelopmentduringthe terminalTiwanakuperiod (850-1050 AD). An hydraulicanalysisof thissite providesthe data to testthesehypotheses. Chen Chen is located at the upper limitsof imperialpresencein the region.It is the largestTiwanaku V occupationof the area. A set of irrigationcanals,whichdrewwater fromthe Tumilaca River,are well preserved,as are the associatedfields,and individual irrigationfurrowsare visible on the surface. Furthermore,Chen Chen is a single componentsitewithradiocarbondates fallingsolelyin the Late Tiwanakuperiod. There was an upslope shiftin theprincipalirrigationcanal throughtime,and a precipitous decline in irrigatedareas and canal capacity at the end of the period (Fig. 3). Mapping and reconnaissance indicate the existence of three principalcanals. Their temporal sequence from lower to higher is based on the followingsuperposition evidence. The lowest canal lies below several cemeteryand domesticsectors,and is crossed by feedersand furrowsfromthe middle canal. This securelydates the lowest canal's abandonmentto beforethemaximumexpansionofmiddlecanal agricultureand well beforethe abandonmentof the site. The middlecanal also lies below some cemeteryand domesticsectors,and is crossed by a feederfromthe upper canal. Tombs lie directlyin the course of both these canals, showingcanal abandonmentbefore cemeteryconstruction.Superpositionevidencealso indicatesthatthemiddlecanal was abandoned well beforethe site was abandoned, and fell out of use beforethe upper canal. The upper canal is the onlyone compatiblewithall cemeteriesand domesticsectorsat the site. It is thereforethe only canal that could have broughtwater to the site in its terminalphases. The superpositionof the upper canal over the middlecanal also indicates thatthiswas the last functioning canal at the site. Given thiscanal sequence,maximumcultivationareas undereach canal systemcan be mapped (Fig. 3). As is evidentfromthe maps,therewas a precipitousdeclinein cultivationarea from93 to 70 to 15 hectares.Excavationsoftheprincipalcanalsconfirm this:estimateddischargecapacitiesof thesuccessivecanals declinedfrom81.5 to 63.5 to 58.1 liters per second.The irrigation authoritiesat Chen Chen were clearlyrestructuring the agrarian landscapein a dynamicmanner.This restructuring could be due to a declineof water resources,pressuresforcingincreased agrarianproduction,political manipulationsof agrarianinfrastructure, or a combinationof these.Whatevertheimpetus,theresultwas a decline in productionand the abandonmentof the settlement.At the same time,the administrative networksofstatedominationoftheregioncollapsed(Bermannet al. 1989). This content downloaded from 129.252.86.83 on Fri, 14 Mar 2014 00:37:59 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 370 PatrickRyanWilliams systemsnear Chen Chen,AD 800-1000,showingthethreesuccesFigure3 Evolutionofagricultural retraction(oldest at top). Shadingindicatesfieldareas. (Williams1997) sive phases of agricultural This content downloaded from 129.252.86.83 on Fri, 14 Mar 2014 00:37:59 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Rethinking disaster-induced collapse 371 Probably at this time,Chen Chen was also sacked and destroyed.Several possible sourceshave been advanced,likelycandidatesbeing a Wariintrusionor a revoltby the local populationagainststaterule(Moseley et al. 1991a). Littleevidenceexistsfora direct overthrowofTiwanakuby Wari- no implementsof war or otherevidenceof directWari conquesthas been recoveredfromextensiveexcavationsat Tiwanakusitesin the valley. This leaves the revoltof the local inhabitantsas themostplausibleexplanation. Earlyin theLate Middle HorizonPeriod (c. 850-950AD), droughtdid notplaythesame role as in the earlierTiwanaku-Waritensionsof the seventhcenturyAD. In fact,thelong droughtof thefirsthalfof thesecond millenniumAD did notsignificantly affectthewater supplyuntilthe twelfthcenturyAD. The average wateravailable duringthe main Chen Chen occupation (850-950 AD) was 245 millioncubic metersof annual discharge.The rangein decadal averageswas 225 to 265 millioncubicmeters,witha standarddeviation of decadal averages of 12. This indicatesthatthe period was characterizedby low variationin rainfalland normalto wet conditionswhencomparedto the 1500-yearaverage. The Chen Chen fieldsystemsneeded an estimated250 millioncubic metersto sustain productionin all fields,whichis withinthe rangeof availabilityduringthisperiod.In the succeedingcentury(AD 950-1050),waterstatisticsare verysimilar,witha periodaverage of 240 millioncubic litersof annual discharge;decadal average rangedfrom220 to 260 millioncubicliters,and thestandarddeviationfortheperiodwas 13. There was thuslittle changethroughouttheperiod AD 850-1050. A naturalchangein hydraulicconditionscannotthereforeaccountforthe Chen Chen collapse priorto AD 1050. However, a crucialfactoris thatthe fullcomponentof Wari fieldsupstreamofChen Chen wouldhave required50 millioncubicmetersofwaterannually.Ifwatershortagecontributed to thedeclineofChen Chen,itwouldhave been a result of developmentof theuppervalleyby Wariand theirTiwanakuassociates,theTumilaca (Williamsand Nash 2002). It is thereforearguedherethatcontrolofwaterresources,and controlof productionand distribution of agrariangoods, were the impetusforan independence movementby the Tumilaca at AD 950. A revolutionary movementwithinthe provincecould be manifestedin thedestructionof sitesthatexemplify statecontrol.The lack offoreignmaterialson thesesitessuggeststhatthelootingwas probablyundertaken by membersof the same society. Culturalcontinuity betweenChen Chen and Tumilaca suggestslinksto the Tiwanaku heritage,but the absence of the GatewayGod motif,conspicuouslypresentin Tiwanaku IV and V iconography, may suggesta rejectionof statecontrolifthisfigureis emblematic of the state (Goldstein 1989). In addition,the largeTumilaca/Chiribaya canal in the coastal valleywas most likelyconstructedbeforeAD 1000 (Satterleeet al. 2000; Owen 1993). In orderforwaterto reach thiscanal on a year-roundbasis,the irrigatedlands at Chen Chen would have had to have been abandoned, because these fieldswould have used practicallyall thewateravailable at thattime. Conclusions The analysisof ecological effectsof droughtin the Titicaca heartlanddoes not seem to indicatesevere watershortagesuntilthe end of the eleventhcenturyAD (Kolata 1994). This content downloaded from 129.252.86.83 on Fri, 14 Mar 2014 00:37:59 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions 372 PatrickRyanWilliams The hydraulicanalysisof Moquegua agriculturepresentedhere also rulesout a disaster induced watershortages.Instead,it seems more likelythat caused by environmentally Tiwanaku populationswere developing,perhapsin Moquegua the within factions local responseto the highdegree of economicinterdependenceforcedon themby the state. itbegan to followitsown Once theMoquegua revolutionhad gainedenoughmomentum, of losing one of its primemaize-producingregionsmay have course; the ramifications furtherdestabilizedthe authoritystructureof the state in the heartlanditself,but this hypothesisrequirestestingat Tiwanakuitself. The Waricolonyat Cerro Baul also appears to have been abandoned in the eleventh centuryAD. Whilehydraulicanalysesof Warifieldsystemsdo not indicatethe hydraulic thelateTiwanakufieldsystemsin Moquegua,theabanthatcharacterized mismanagement donmentofCerroBautland theprobablecollapseoftheWaristateat thistime(see Williams 2001on revisingthedate ofthisevent)are likelymorethancoincidence.The eventsprecipitatingthe local Tiwanakucollapse inevitablyaffectedthe politicsof Waricontrolin the drainage.PerhapswiththedemiseofTiwanakustatepresence,theprincipalreasonforthe - was Warioccupationof Moquegua - to containand interactwiththeTiwanakufrontier no longeran issue. Ongoingresearchat Cerro Bautlwillcertainlyilluminatetheseissues. Nevertheless,the end of the Middle Horizon dominionby the two principalstatesis an extremelycomplexsocial process.In Moquegua, water and social dynamicsverylikely of directinteraction, playeda crucialrole in the abandonmentof theonlyknownfrontier to certainnaturaland politicalstressesa primalfactor.The ramifiwithsocialvulnerability in the cations of losing an importantcolony may have increased social susceptibility forth. brought later drought that the stress Tiwanakuheartlandto severeresource The competingagriculturaldynamicsof the Middle Horizon influencedthe development of the landscape of Moquegua over the next millennium.Post-collapsesocieties droughtthatgave the competitiveedge to thosewho were embroiledin a centuries-long elaborated Wari's highsierraagrariantechnology.Developed to its penultimateby the and sixteenthcenturiesAD, highelevationterracedagriculInca empirein the fifteenth ture is still a traditionalmainstayin the Andean sierra today. Thus, the response to competingpoliticalforcesand ecologicalconditionshas drasticallyalteredthe ecological dynamicsof thewesternAndean watershedsup to thepresentday. The magnitudeof a naturalhazard cannotbe equated withthemagnitudeof itssocial impact.Collapse and survivalare social processes,affectedby but not drivenby their The explanatoryfocuson disasteragents,ratherthantheprocessofcoping environments. in social systems,has reducedthe explanawithdisasterand the inherentvulnerabilities social elementsinto the equatorystrengthof archaeologicalmodels. By incorporating tion,we arriveat much more powerfulexplanatorydevices thatdo not depict human prescribedcollapses,butas activeagentsin societiesas therecipientsof environmentally reconowndevelopment.Environmental in their and the environment of theconstruction models, importantrole in archaeological structionswill continueto play an increasingly data in orderto and archaeologymustcontinueto utilizebothsocial and environmental impactsof ecodisasterson the landscapeshumansinhabit. understandthe long-term The Field MuseumofNaturalHistory, DepartmentofAnthropology, 1400 S. Lake ShoreDr., Chicago,IL 60605,USA This content downloaded from 129.252.86.83 on Fri, 14 Mar 2014 00:37:59 AM All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions Rethinking disaster-induced collapse 373 References J.and Mathews,J.1990.Asentamientos Albarracin-Jordan, Prehispanicosdel Vallede Tiwanaku1. La Paz, Bolivia: ProduccionesCima. 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