How Can Psychology Help Articial Intelligence Alvaro del Val Departamento de Ingeniera Informatica Universidad Autonoma de Madrid [email protected] http://www.ii.uam.es/ delval March 29, 1999 Abstract This paper discusses the relationship between Articial Intelligence (AI) and Psychology. As an AI practicioner, I'll let psychologists evaluate the impact of AI, or more generally computational models of intelligence, perception, and agency, on their discipline. I'll focus on the impact of psychology on AI today, specially in how psychology could help AI more than it is currently doing. I will emphasize the dierences in evaluation criteria for each discipline. Looking into the future, I'll discuss a number of fundamental technological hurdles faced by AI today, which could benet from a better understanding of certain forms of human reasoning and acting. In particular, I'll suggest that cognitive psychology, in order to be useful to AI, needs to study common-sense knowledge and reasoning in realistic settings and to focus less in errors in performance in favour of studying how people do well the things they do well. 1 Introduction Articial intelligence is interdisciplinary in its very nature, and has from its birth beneted by input from disciplines as diverse as mathematical logic, philosophy, psychology, linguistics, economy and other social sciences. Of course, AI is at its core a computer science discipline, which as most of computer science has a strong engineering orientation. Its main goal is the design and construction of automated systems that exhibit intelligent behavior. I won't attempt to dene intelligent behavior, as it would be 1 futile. From a system design and analysis perspective, even a thermostat can be said to react intelligently to its environment, given its goals (or, more precisely, its designer's goals). It is clear though that high level cognitive and reasoning processes are crucial to AI, and that from this perspective AI has a lot to learn, potentially, from humans, our best model of intelligent behavior. Among other aspects, humans engage in quite sophisticated ways in goal-furthering behavior which involves knowledge about the natural and social world the ability to react to and shape evolving, incompletely known environments in which they are embedded to learn from them to correct errors, even planning for the possibility of error to cooperate or compete with other agents in pursuing goals, etc. There is therefore little doubt that the study of human cognitive processes is relevant to AI, and thus that psychology can play a signicant role for AI. The relevant model here is not, as it should be clear from the above remarks, that of an almost isolated agent, solving logic puzzles or even playing chess. Knowledge intensive tasks, involving \common sense reasoning," embedded in a complex and changing natural and social environment, are much more relevant. I'll come back to this point later. In this paper, I will make the following three claims: (a) AI and psychology have very dierent standards of evaluation for their contributions. These dierences arise for the most part from the fact that AI is an engineering discipline with quite practical goals AI is not concerned with modeling human behavior in an empirically acceptable fashion, but only with synthesising intelligent systems by whichever means are available. (b) The impact of psychology on current AI is relatively limited, with the area of learning perhaps the main exception. There are many AI systems inspired by \cognitive architectures" which aim at \psychological plausibility." These are respected contributions to AI, but they are not driving AI research. On the contrary, most recent successes in AI seem to point in the opposite direction. (c) Nevertheless, there are many aspects of human behavior which could be of great help for AI if better understood. Some of them have been hinted at above, and are at the root of many of the most dicult challenges of AI today. Psychology could be of most help in understanding 2 these phenomena. These claims certainly have a subjective component, inuenced by my (necessarily partial) perspective of AI as a eld. Many will disagree with claims (a) and (b). Hopefully, however, even those who disagree strongly will see some value in (c). For even if psychology and AI have dierent goals and standards, they also share a lot of common ground. My colleague Nigel Shadbolt titles another paper in the current volume with the question \Should Psychology still care about AI?" I must confess I was tempted to change the title of this paper to ask the opposite question: \Should AI still care about Psychology?" The reader can guess my answer to this latter question from claims (b) and (c). AI could learn a lot from psychological research, but at this point is not getting what it needs. 2 Diering standards and goals In order to get positive feedback in either direction, the rst thing we must understand is that psychology and AI have quite dierent goals and standards of evaluation. The goal of the former is modeling psychological phenomena, while that of the latter is building intelligent systems, by whichever means are available. Psychological models are validated by their ability to empirically predict human behavior, whereas this is essentially irrelevant to AI. AI techniques are not validated by their psychological plausibility, i.e. by solving problems the way humans do. What matters is whether problems are solved correctly and eciently, and for this we can use the designer's perspective, which gives AI access to a wider range of tools and theories. We discuss each of these points next. Consider rst the issue of correctness, or more precisely of normative adequacy. A psychological theory must be able to empirically predict human error a system that imitates human behavior must also imitate error. AI systems must achieve, on the other hand, normatively correct behavior. Who would want a hand-held calculator which imitated human behavior, i.e. which occasionally made errors in calculations? Or consider the Turing test, so often considered as a true test of intelligence by an automated system. Recall that the test consists in fooling a human examiner into thinking that he or she is interacting with another human rather than with a machine. No truly intelligent machine could possibly pass the test (unless its goal 3 is only to fool the examiner). It would suce for the human examiner to pose complex calculations to his or her interlocutor if it never fails, then it for sure is not human. This said, I do believe that \error" plays a deeply productive role in intelligence, as discussed in the last section. Second, there is the question of eciency versus psychological plausibility. A deep recent trend is driving away AI from \human-like" methods towards compute-intensive methods in solving a variety of problems Ginsberg, 1996], Kautz and Selman, 1997]. Consider for example Deep Blue, the IBM chess program which was able to defeat Kasparov, by examining over 200 million moves a second. Deep Blue is often described as using \brute force" or \blind" search in the space of possible moves as successfully opposing raw power against intelligence. This is an oversimplied statement. Deep Blue uses the quintessential AI technique of heuristic search guided by knowledge. It uses knowledge of chess in its large database of opening and ending games, and in the evaluation functions used to choose moves. The evaluation function, which considers material, position, King safety, and tempo, is crucial as a pruning mechanism to eliminate unpromising moves, because of the huge (exponential) number of ways in which a game can evolve. Nevertheless, Deep Blue's main advantage over human players does lie in raw speed, and nobody would claim that the way it reasons mimic that of human grandmasters. Using more sophisticated evaluation functions, as a grandmaster may do, simply hasn't worked as well in AI. Thus, from the point of view of AI, one of the main contributions of Deep Blue is showing that being \more intelligent" in the evaluation function does not pay o i.e. it is better looking at more moves than expending more time in judging each possible move. But this is not exclusive of chess.1 With much better hardware, and better search techniques, this is a lesson that is making its impact in various areas of AI: trying to be too smart is often too slow. There are many other examples to illustrate this point. In order to achieve eciency in problem solving, AI is moving away from human-like behavior and the use of very specialized knowledge, towards compute-intensive, generic search methods. Techniques for dealing with constraint satisfaction problems, a recent great success of AI, exemplify this trend perfectly Puget, 1 Though Deep Blue's developers seem not to be aware of this. They deny using AI techniques, precisely on the grounds that they do not attempt to mimic human behavior. See http://www.chess.ibm.com/meet/html/d.3.3.html. 4 1998]. For another example, most research in automated planning until not long ago would proceed in a human like fashion by reasoning backwards from goals but current best planners use forward reasoning from the initial situation Blum and Furst, 1995], or encodings of planning problems into logical formulas which are then solved by the best available methods Kautz et al., 1996] Kautz and Selman, 1998]. (It is perhaps worth pointing out here, for the uninitiated, that there is a quite direct mapping between general search techniques and methods for solving logical formulas). Other examples of ecient but unhuman-like behavior in game playing, scheduling, natural language understanding, qualitative reasoning about physical systems, theorem proving, and learning can be found in Ginsberg, 1996], Kautz and Selman, 1997]. Another aspect of the dilemma between eciency and psychological plausibility is that cognitive theories must be able to predict the diculty of various reasoning tasks in humans. Thus, if a software system is built with the goal of testing the validity of a psychological theory, as suggested by Simon, 1995] (see also the discussion of cognitive architectures below), it should be able to imitate the relative diculty of problems for humans. AI, on the other hand, just wants to solve all problems as easily as possible. Third, and nally, we have mentioned that AI can benet from a designer's perspective in choosing its tools an theories, in a way that psychology cannot. I'll give three examples. First, even if people is not good at (mathematical) logical inference, or even at formalizing knowledge in logical languages, the representation languages of choice for AI are still variants of classical logic, propositional or rst order, extended or restricted to suit various tasks. The reason is simple: its formal syntax and lack of ambiguity, suitable for easy manipulation by computers. Second, consider decision theory, which models agents as utility maximisers. As a model of human behavior, it can be criticized on psychological and sociological grounds, specially if one wants to get theories with any predictive power, which requires being quite specic about what form the utility function should take (e.g. utility understood in monetary terms). On the other hand, decision theory is, from a mathematical point of view, extremely general, specially when qualitative utility functions are used Doyle and Thomason, 1997]. Thus it only requires the agent to have some pref5 erences, partially ordered (but see Gilboa and Schmeidler, 1998] for an alternative view). We can use these preferences in any way we please as designers of intelligent systems. The modeling task is of course helped by the fact that the systems designed in AI only have some limited goals to achieve. As a nal example, take epistemic logics, which provide a number of axioms on the properties of epistemic attitudes such as knowledge and belief in a multiagent setting. Often the axioms have quite strong and \unrealistic" properties, such as making agents know all consequences of their knowledge, perfect introspection, non-contradiction, etc. Many attempts have been made to weaken these properties to make them more realistic. Nevertheless, epistemic logics in their stronger forms have proven useful in the analysis of, and design of algorithms for, systems with multiple \agents" in restricted settings, for example for distributed systems (where agents are processors) or robotics Fagin et al., 1995]. And while the proposals to weaken these logics are in part motivated by psychological plausibility, they are only constrained by the needs of designing computational systems. 3 The impact of psychology on AI In assessing the impact of psychology on AI, one must clearly distinguish the inuence of psychologists on AI from that of psychology as a discipline. For there is no doubt that some renowned psychologists have had a tremendous inuence on the history and current state of AI. Allen Newell and Herbert Simon helped shape the discipline of AI from its inception. In addition to writing some of the earliest inuential programs in AI (Logic Theorist and the General Problem Solver, which used production rules and means-end analysis), they introduced the physical symbol hypothesis (PSH) Newell and Simon, 1976], which can be seen as an essential tenet of much of AI throughout its history. As they put it: A physical symbol system consists of a set of entities, called symbols, which are physical patterns that can occur as components of another type of symbol called an expression (or symbol structure). Thus a symbol structure is composed of a number of instances (or tokens) of symbols related in some physical way (such as one token being next to another). At any instant of time 6 the system will contain a collection of these symbol structures. Besides these structures, the system also contains a collection of processes that operate on expressions to produce other expressions: processes of creation, modication, reproduction and destruction. A physical symbol system is a machine that produces through time an evolving collection of symbol structures. Such a system exists in a world of objects wider than just these symbolic expressions themselves. . . . ] The Physical Symbol Hypothesis. A physical symbol systems has the necessary and sucient means for intelligent action. Symbolic AI can be seen as essentially guided by the PSH, at least by the \suciency" condition. Of course, symbols are used to represent knowledge, but equally obviously a computer does not \understand" them as we do: it just has a set of procedures to manipulate them, which we, the designers and programmers, interpret as reasoning. This separation between the \declarative" encoding of knowledge and inference procedures is essential to much of AI. Levesque Levesque, 1986] reformulates the same basic idea as the assumption that \thinking can be usefully understood as mechanical operations on symbols" and that \intelligence is best served by explicitly representing in the data structures of a program as much as possible of what a system needs to know." Allen Newell's later, and also inuential, idea of a \knowledge level", for which symbol systems would oer only concrete implementations, goes along the same lines Newell, 1982]Newell, 1990]. It is worth quoting Levesque and Brachman, 1987] on the role of symbolic systems: the symbolic structures within a knowledge-based system must play a causal role in the behavior of that system, as opposed to, say, comments in a programming language. Moreover, the inuence they have on the behavior of the system should agree with our understanding of them as propositions representing knowledge. Not that the system has to be aware in any mysterious way of the interpretation of its structures and their connections to the world but for us to call it knowledge-based, we have to be able to understand its behavior as if it believed these propositions, just as we understand the behavior of a numerical program as if 7 it appreciated the connection between bit patterns and abstract numerical quantities. From the point of view of psychology, the PSH has led to the development of unied theories of cognition Newell, 1990]. From an AI perspective, on the other hand, the PSH is an empirical hypothesis that can only be conrmed by the practical success of (symbolic) AI in building intelligent systems. While the PSH has been recently challenged by neurologicallyinspired models of behavior, it is here to stay. It seems clear that both symbolic and subsymbolic behavior play a role in intelligent behavior, and one of the challenges is to achieve a successful theoretical and practical integration of both approaches. But what about specically psychological contributions to AI? Simon, in a recent talk Simon, 1995] cites a few contributions, such as the already cited General Problem Solver, Feigenbaum's EPAM model of human memory, Anderson's ACT* system. These are quite old systems, and one would hardly hear of them in todays's AI conferences, though GPS was certainly inuential2, and EPAM led to some early work on decision tree learning Nilsson, 1997]. Nevertheless, there are a few systems in use today that attempt to bring together both disciplines by developing and testing software systems based on theories of cognitive architectures, which attempt to build systems which exhibit general intelligence, rather tyhan simply addressing some limited task VanLehn, 1991, Wray et al., 1992]. Implementations of cognitive architectures do not always follow the constraints imposed by human cognition, e.g. Brook's subsumption architecture Brooks, 1987, Brooks, 1991]. Perhaps the best known systems which do aim at psychological validity are Soar Laird et al., 1987] and Prodigy Carbonell et al., 1991], both descendants of GPS. They have been used as testbeds for psychological theories, and also for exploring AI techniques in problems such as planning and learning. Curiously enough, in both cases the main form of learning is explanation-based learning (EBL), that is, a form of learning which stores only logical consequences of the knowledge base, and that therefore can be accounted for in purely logical terms. This logical character has helped make EBL a useful item in the repertoire of AI techniques (in particular, many However, the fact that GPS was psychologically inspired and validated is somewhat irrelevant, in the sense that AI only cares about the formal model of problem solving embodied by GPS. 2 8 forms of storing previously made inferences for later reuse can be seen as forms of EBL), but is also the reason why it is not seen as representative of human learning capabilities, as no new knowledge can be acquired from experience through EBL. Work on psychologically-based cognitive architectures has been too often driven by the goal of testing psychological theories Simon, 1995], rather than building intelligent systems. This is a legitimate goal, but one which has diminished its relevance to AI as engineering. They are not present in any of the recent successes in AI, such as those cited on the discussion of eciency in the previous section. It is probably in the area of learning where cognitive psychology has been more inuential. Early work on decision trees was inuenced by psychology, as mentioned above, as is the important eld of reinforcement learning Nilsson, 1997]. But even in learning, psychology has faced strong competence from other sources of inspiration, such as purely statistical techniques and neural networks. We should also mention case-based reasoning and learning. This family of AI techniques, which has its own international conferences, has a clear psychological avor. Here reasoning and learning proceeds by analogy with previous cases known to the agent, and knowledge is stored as cases rather than as general rules. There are domains, such as the eld of AI and law, where this form of reasoning has an obvious attractive in other domains, such as planning, where case-based reasoning showed a lot of promise Hammond, 1986], it is not competitive with current best approaches (though one should bear in mind that they often tackle dierent kinds of problems, which makes comparisons harder). Nevertheless, it is an area where research is pursued actively, with such interesting developments as case-based decision theory Gilboa and Schmeidler, 1998]. 4 How can psychology help AI When AI was born, it was thought that weak generic methods, such as the GPS, was all that was needed to achieve general intelligence. AI came of age in the late 70's and 80's, with the advent of expert systems, which began to deliver practical applications to the market place. The slogan \knowledge is power" took hold, and it seemed as if knowledge based systems could solve all problems requiring intelligence. Expert systems were knowledge9 intensive, but weak in inference, using for the most part simple backward chaining, embellished in various ways (e.g. using multiple knowledge sources accessing a common blackboard, something which today looks rather trivial but that was then thought at the forefront of technology). Expert systems are a well-established technology, still useful for restricted tasks, but now much less relevant from a research point of view. Among their shortcomings, their \brittleness" is often cited, i.e. their inability to degrade their performance gracefully as we move outside of their restricted domain of application. Related to this is their inability to recover from errors, to reason with assumptions, to revise their knowledge base in the face of contradictory evidence. In addition, the attempt to construct truly autonomous systems launched new paradigms in robotics, specially starting with the already cited work of Brooks, in what is now called the \new AI". These shortcomings prompted two major undertakings during the 80's and early 90's in \good old fashioned AI." (Nigel Shadbolt discusses new AI in detail in this volume, in a much more knowledgeable way than I possibly could, so I shall ignore new AI here.) On the one hand, it was thought that the answer to these problems was to throw in even more knowledge. Brittleness was attributed to expert systems lack of common sense knowledge, and the CYC project, a multimillion, decade long project was launched to build a huge knowledge base with all the \trivial" facts of common sense Lenat and Guha, 1990]. The idea was that, when endowed with this knowledge, expert systems would not fall prey to errors than any human can detect immediately, just by common sense. Optimistic projections were made about how this could be used for natural language understanding, and how eventually the system would be able to acquire common sense by learning, once it was bootstrapped with the basic facts that \everybody knows." The second undertaking focused on common sense reasoning. Starting with McCarthy, 1981] and Doyle, 1979] over a decade of research has focused on so called non-monotonic reasoning. Classical logic is monotonic in that adding new facts can never lead us to retract previous conclusions. This is clearly a straight-jacket for reasoning even in the most mundane tasks, where we often have to revise our beliefs in the face of contradictory evidence or a changing environment, and where reasoning would be impossible without making lots of unproven assumptions (e.g. we certainly do not consider all possible ways in which our plan for going to work may fail: the 10 car's battery is dead, or there is a potato in the tailpipe, or there is a nuclear explosion, or...). Classical logics are extremely intolerant of contradictions, and ill suited to formalize knowledge which is often uncertain and full of exceptions to the general rules. Both undertakings have failed to achieve their goals. It's not easy to nd a clear explanation for the failure to build a useful common sense knowledge base. Some may attribute the failure to the use of logical languages (where by \logical" I mean \formal" in a mathematical sense, e.g. probabilistic representations would fall under this label) as representation tools. But of course the question is then what alternative there is, since a computer needs formal rules for mechanical manipulation of symbols. I believe part of the reason for failure is that knowledge cannot be separate from how it is used, and common sense involves very complex patterns of reasoning. Non-monotonic logics were an attempt to solve this problem, and in fact they have been extremely successful from a formal, mathematical point of view, in capturing a wide variety of forms of reasoning such as those described above in addition, they provided a rm foundation for logic programming, and made progress in temporal reasoning. The problem with non-monotonic logics is eciency. The computational complexity of reasoning with any of these logics is signicantly larger than that of reasoning with classical logic. Yet it was precisely a computational consideration which led to the development of these logics: Humans can reason very eectively by ignoring exceptions, only retracting conclusions when the need arise, etc. This eectiveness was supposed to be captured by non-monotonic logics, yet it turned out that reasoning became much harder, not easier! There's been attempts to understand this paradox (basically, non-monotonic logics can capture the same knowledge in a much more concise form than classical logics, so, roughly, much smaller demands of memory compensate for harder reasoning Cadoli et al., 1994]), but the bottom line remains: there are very few systems using non-monotonic reasoning which can be regarded as clear successes.3 Thus, as discussed in the previous section, AI has moved towards eProbabilistic formalisms, in particular Bayes nets, which can also be seen as capturing non-monotonic patterns of reasoning, have achieved a reasonably good compromise between computational complexity and expressivity, i.e. they can model relatively significant problems eciently. It is unclear how much can this be pushed towards solving the core problems of non-monotonic reasoning eciently. 3 11 cient solutions for specic application areas, solutions which are to a great extent compute-intensive rather than knowledge-intensive Kautz and Selman, 1997]. Many of these areas are central to the eld of knowledge representation and reasoning, such as planning, diagnosis, reasoning with constraints, natural language understanding, and theorem proving. It is clear that from the perspective of AI, as long as these approaches work well, all is ne. But solving these problems eciently often involves many restrictive assumptions, and lifting these assumptions is very hard.4 Furthermore, the problems discussed above involving common sense knowledge and reasoning are still there. Without solving them it is almost impossible to lift those restrictions in a suciently general way so as to achieve human-level performance (in the areas where humans are better than computers). It is here where I suggest that psychology can be of great help. Quite a few of the above listed successes deal with problems that humans are not specially good at solving. These are problems where considering all possible cases is too hard for a human, and thus we may throw in lots of specialized knowledge in trying to simplify the problem. The lesson from recent AI is that we will be better o letting machines consider all cases (with very agressive pruning techniques to reduce the number of cases, of course), and that machines are not helped much by the knowledge-intensive methods we humans may attempt to use. Yet building a machine with the common sense of a 4-year old child would be a major breakthrough, and is well beyond the reach of current technology. Humans do use lots of knowledge in the most mundane tasks these are tasks which are inferentially shallow, i.e. do not require deep reasoning, but which can trigger the appropriate bits of knowledge as needed in an extremely ecient way. While any specic piece of reasoning may not be knowledge-intensive, the overall adequacy of behavior does depend on a huge amount of knowledge. Furthermore, and as suggested above, we are able to reason in the presence of error, or at least allowing for the possibility of error, and gracefully recovering from it when the need arises. We also make lots of unproven assumptions that greatly simplify reasoning. This behavior As an example, consider that recent progress in automated planning refers almost exclusively to what in AI is called \classical planning," i.e. STRIPS-style planning. It is instructive to compare the current state of the art with a review of the state of the art over a decade ago George, 1987], when AI was feeling optimistic abut its ability to go beyond classical planning. 4 12 seems clearly more ecient from a cognitive point of view than considering all ways in which things can go wrong, and this was one of the motivations for research in non-monotonic reasoning. Thus I would like psychology to help me understand common-sense reasoning, and how we use knowledge in realistic tasks. How do we deal with error and exceptions, how do we recover from them, why are mistaken assumptions not that harmful in everyday reasoning? How do we plan, and more generally how does goal-directed behavior work? How do we reason about time and the evolution of the world around us? These are some deep problems for knowledge representation and automated reasoning, which are by no means solved. To be honest, I'm not sure what it would take for psychology to address these problems in a way that would be useful for AI. There are many legitimate concerns of cognitive psychology that do not apply to AI. Many factors that aect human performance, e.g. limitations in working memory, do not aect a computer in the same way. Similarly, the ability to predict the relative diculty for humans of reasoning tasks (see e.g. Johnson-Laird and Byrne, 1991]) is likely to be of little application to computers, for which dierent constraints apply, and which have their own well-developed theory of relative diculty, namely complexity theory. According to a relatively recent review of research on the psychology of reasoning Evans et al., 1993], much work in cognitive psychology deals with how well does people carry out tasks which are trivial for a computer (e.g. the Wason selection task, or modus tollens) or how dierent factors (content, degree of abstraction, context) aect whether people do well certain simple tasks. One rst reaction is that computers must do well if they are to be useful (recall the discussion of normative adequacy), so people's lack of adequate performance is irrelevant to AI, to a rst approximation. On further thought, what one would like to understand is how doing badly in certain tasks translates into successful action in the real world. For example, and as cited in Evans et al., 1993], Evans argues that belief bias (by which the validity of an argument is judged more favorably if its conclusion agrees with prior beliefs) is adaptive in the real world. But how, what are the details? Or consider the inuence of content and context in reasoning tasks. How is knowledge used to produce this eect, what kind of knowledge is used, and how is this instrumental in pursuing the agent's goals? In my 13 view, determining whether these inuences facilitate or hinder the agent's performance is the least interesting bit of it. I agree that understanding the causes of error is a necessary goal for explaining human intelligence, and that much work, to be signicant, needs to be carried out under controlled, laboratory conditions. Nevertheless, what I would like to know is how people do well the things they do well, and how they do it in realistic settings, as opposed to, say, how subjects handle multiple quantiers. Computers already know how to do that. But computers do not have common sense. References Blum and Furst, 1995] A. L. Blum and M. L. Furst. Fast planning thorugh planning graph analysis. 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