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To:HouseMajorityPAC
From:JohnHagner,ClarityCampaignLabs
Date:October19,2016
Subject:BonoffMakesHugeGainsinMN-03asTrumpDragsPaulsenDown
AsurveyconductedOctober11th-13th,2016byClarityCampaignLabsonbehalfofHouseMajorityPAC
shows that Democratic challenger Terri Bonoff is gaining support in her race against incumbent
RepublicanErikPaulseninMinnesota’sThirdCongressionalDistrict.Thesurveyincludes500responses,
conductedbyliveoperatorstolandlinesandcellphones,withamarginoferrorof+/-4.34%ata95%
confidenceinterval.
CongressionalRacewithLeaners
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
45%
MN-03PresidentialSupport
47%
50%
42%
45%
40%
35%
30%
28%
25%
13%
20%
14%
15%
11%
10%
5%
ErikPaulsen[R] TerriBonoff[D]
Unsure
0%
DonaldTrump HillaryClinton
Other
Unsure
TerriBonofftrailsErikPaulsenby3%–withinthemarginoferror-intheraceforCongress.Bonoffgets
thesupportof39%ofthevotersinthedistrict,comparedto41%forPaulsen.Whenundecidedvotersare
askedwhichcandidatetheyleantowardsupporting,Bonoffadds3%toPaulsen’s4%,bringingthemargin
to45%to42%.
Thetop-of-ticketDemocraticperformanceinthedistrictsuggeststhatBonoffhasplentyofroomleftto
expand;DemocraticnomineeHillaryClintonoutperformsDonaldTrumpby19points.Sheisbeatinghim
47%to28%inthedistrict,with14%supportinganothercandidate.
Bonoff’s lead among Democrats is improving rapidly and is now up to 80%. She also takes 6% of
Republicans.PaulsendoeshavealeadwithIndependents,but23%areundecided.Duetothecollapseof
theRepublicanbrandinwell-educatedsuburbs,thankstotheirnominee,thedistrict’spartyIDnowtrends
Democratic,with38%identifyingasRepublicansand46%asDemocrats.Bonoff’sabilitytofurthersolidify
Democratic votes and reach deeper into Paulsen’s support among Independents will be critical to her
successonElectionDay.
October 19, 2016
Page 1
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MN-03CongressionalSupportbyParty
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
90%
80%
53%
24%
6%
4%
12%
Republican
8%
Democrat
ErikPaulsen[R]
23%
TerriBonoff[D]
Independent
Unsure
Athercurrenttrajectory,TerriBonoffstandsaverygoodchanceatunseatingincumbentErikPaulsen.
DonaldTrumpispoisedtolosethisseatbyhistoricmargins,andasthedistrictlearnsmoreaboutthe
alternativeTerriBonoffoffers,weexpecthersupporttocontinuetogrow.
ThepollwasconductedbyClarityCampaignLabs,usingasamplepulledfromtheTargetSmartvoterfile.
Responses were weighted using turnout scores to reflect the likely voting electorate in Minnesota’s 3rd
CongressionalDistrict.
October 19, 2016
Page 2